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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

“the poll’s Favourability Index finds that the Conservative Party is viewed more favourably than Labour for the first time, suggesting that the Tory brand is now seen as no more “toxic” than the Labour one.”

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First ..... again!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Dammit peter!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    No question about Osborne's popularity? Guess ComRes didn't want to embarrass the party leaders ;-)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Wrong again, oh well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    The Scottish polling that I had to cull from the thread header

    With less than a month to go to the Scottish referendum, the poll finds that only 5 per cent of the English and Welsh view Alex Salmond favourably. The same percentage are favourable towards his Scottish National Party. But a larger number, 12 per cent, are favourable to the idea of "independence for Scotland".

    In Scotland, though, Mr Salmond is more popular (36 per cent favourable) than any of the UK party leaders are in the whole of Britain. (But note the Scottish subsample is small, 170.)

    Scots are more positive about the English (65 per cent favourable) than the English and Welsh are about Scottish people generally (52 per cent).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Alanbrooke said:

    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.

    The Tories no longer being toxic is major news.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    An occasion somewhat short of requiring 'brevity' in my most humble opinion....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    A better poll for the Tories - take cover for the avalanche of criticism of methodology/weighting/it's not Ashcroft/etc/etc/etc from all the usual suspects.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    If the Tories are losing the toxicity of their brand, it would be remarkable, but I cannot see it lasting. I've never come across quite the same level of hatred for Labour that many people have for the Tories, despite living in a Tory heartland. Still, anything is possible I suppose, worth keeping an eye on. Cameron no longer polling better than his party?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If the tories are less toxic that could have big implications for tory/lib dem fights I guess.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    RobD said:

    Dammit peter!

    Skill, pure skill.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Scots are more positive about the English (65 per cent favourable) than the English and Welsh are about Scottish people generally (52 per cent).

    I guess we English owe them apologies for any 'The Scots hate us' comments we may have made in the past.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.

    The Tories no longer being toxic is major news.
    It's one poll, you can't actually say no more.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.

    The Tories no longer being toxic is major!
    This is the language of horse-shit as Alanbrooke might say. No not your language TSE, just that premise of this poll is airy-fairy. ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    edited August 2014
    Hard to get terribly excited by this one with its 1% shift, for the same reasons that I've discounted some of the larger YouGov leads - if subsidaries move in step together with VI, it usually suggests a sample issue, unless there's an obvious reason. But it's more in line with Richard N's thesis that nothing much is happening than PfP's thesis that Labour is surging ahead.

    Next poll! What else are we expecting tonight, just YG?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ComRes write up here

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1248/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-political-poll.htm

    Data tables here

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_24th_August_2014_12371.pdf
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited August 2014
    Can't help but notice that UKIP have a similar net favourable rating to Labour and the Conservatives.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    Hard to get terribly excited by this one with its 1% shift, for the same reasons that I've discounted some of the larger YouGov leads - if subsidaries move in step together with VI, it usually suggests a sample issue, unless there's an obvious reason. But it's more in line with Richard N's thesis that nothing much is happening than PfP's thesis that Labour is surging ahead.

    Next poll! What else are we expecting tonight, just YG?

    I'm only anticipating the YouGov.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    One thing that all the polls show is that coalitions are very bad for the LDs and I think they can only blame themselves for that. Almost from the start they have tried to be the opposition within the government - it's a pretty lousy message to give.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.

    The Tories no longer being toxic is major news.
    It's one poll, you can't actually say no more.
    That's the point I made.

    But remember, last year, Ipsos-Mori found Ed Miliband more toxic than the Tories.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Scots are more positive about the English (65 per cent favourable) than the English and Welsh are about Scottish people generally (52 per cent).

    I guess we English owe them apologies for any 'The Scots hate us' comments we may have made in the past.
    Or maybe Salmond owes us all an apology for giving Scots a reputation they don't deserve.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    felix said:

    One thing that all the polls show is that coalitions are very bad for the LDs and I think they can only blame themselves for that. Almost from the start they have tried to be the opposition within the government - it's a pretty lousy message to give.

    Frau Merkel was right when she said in a coalition, "The little party always gets smashed!"
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Also striking to see that Con + UKIP is 50%!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2014
    Agence France-Presse ‏@AFP 1m
    #UPDATE Libya Islamist militias 'seize Tripoli airport' http://u.afp.com/hGe via @YahooNews

    These bastards are everywhere. Watch out Heathrow!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Anyhoo, time for Doctor Who.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    One thing that all the polls show is that coalitions are very bad for the LDs and I think they can only blame themselves for that. Almost from the start they have tried to be the opposition within the government - it's a pretty lousy message to give.

    Frau Merkel was right when she said in a coalition, "The little party always gets smashed!"
    Not smashed enough, as was the case for Merkel.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    GIN1138 said:

    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!

    Keep that champagne for me #GIN1138. I'll give you a good price for it when I celebrate UKIP triuphs to come. :D
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited August 2014
    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    I think it's their duplicity which has done for them - only Alexander seems largely to understand the approach to take. The rest, especially Cable but also Huhne before the law caught up with him just came across as slimy and untrustworthy. Sad - but even the whole Rennard debacle seems to confirm the image of double dealing and hypocrisy which pervades the party
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Do I sense a new 'Gold Standard' might be emerging?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    For some reason, the specific compromises, shifts in position, u-turns and falsities the LDs have engaged in since 2010 have saddled them with the label of being apparently the only political party to ever engage in such behaviour. Strongly Labour people see them as traitors, strongly Tory people see them as deceitful undermining 'allies' and most of the rest see them as ineffective and wishy washy I would guess.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    The level of false consciousness in this country is scary.

    Perhaps after 4 years of a Tory led government the voters are suffering from Stockholm syndrome?

    A Grim day for the Heed today (pun intended!).
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Roger said:

    Do I sense a new 'Gold Standard' might be emerging?

    Anything would be better than the worship at the shrine of Ashcroft.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited August 2014
    Roger said:

    Do I sense a new 'Gold Standard' might be emerging?

    Roger you old codger. it's been so long since we've had you on the board tell us what's new in luvvie land .

    Out here in the sticks it's all Prince Alberts and body art.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    The Kipper numbers suggest that Mr Farage is a bit of a drag on his party. Should he hand over to Paul Nuttall to give UKIP a boost?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    David Evershed

    "How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?"

    The most duplicitous politician since Quisling has succeeded in sucking out the venom from the Tories and absorbing it himself. Who could have predicted that?

    Nice one Dave!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    Ah the old 'dismissal of the polling I don't like' syndrome emerges
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited August 2014
    Roger said:

    David Evershed

    "How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?"

    The most duplicitous politician since Quisling has succeeded in sucking out the venom from the Tories and absorbing it himself. Who could have predicted that?

    Nice one Dave!

    That is so rude about Vince Cable... and so true.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Alanbrooke


    Luvvie land as you well know moves up to Edinburgh for most of August.

    How are the tractor boys? Still trying to squeeze that fourth Conservative Club into the main street?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2014
    Roger said:

    Alanbrooke


    Luvvie land as you well know moves up to Edinburgh for most of August.

    How are the tractor boys? Still trying to squeeze that fourth Conservative Club into the main street?

    Roger - before we fall out again, may I just say - really nice to see your return to PB. ; )
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Alanbrooke. Re Prince Albert. I was going to send you a link but knowing how Vanilla chooses to display even the most discreet links in 48 sheet I thought better of it
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    Especially good question in the middle of the UKIP hate-fest the bien-pensant lefty press has been trying to generate all year.

    And not looking good for that nice Mr Miliband at all, at all. 2% lead, personally despised, party despised, untrusted on economy, 8 months to go. I worry about it a lot.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.

    The Tories no longer being toxic is major news.
    The tories being not toxic is a state of affairs we haven't allowed ourselves to dream of.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    SandyRentool said:

    The Kipper numbers suggest that Mr Farage is a bit of a drag on his party. Should he hand over to Paul Nuttall to give UKIP a boost?

    Fewer people view Farage unfavourably than do UKIP in general (by one point). From that perspective he is certainly not a drag on the party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Roger said:

    Alanbrooke


    Luvvie land as you well know moves up to Edinburgh for most of August.

    How are the tractor boys? Still trying to squeeze that fourth Conservative Club into the main street?

    Well as you know this time of the year it's wall to wall Wurzels.

    We have our own festivals including Ludlow blackshirt solidarity week, Bewdley Bernard Manning commemoration and ANL fisting in Southam. It's a packed programme.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Ishmael_X said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    Especially good question in the middle of the UKIP hate-fest the bien-pensant lefty press has been trying to generate all year.

    And not looking good for that nice Mr Miliband at all, at all. 2% lead, personally despised, party despised, untrusted on economy, 8 months to go. I worry about it a lot.

    Hope all is going well with you @Ishmael_X‌.

    And yep, are people coming to their senses? Thing is, the closeness of the Kippers to the Cons on several of the questions perplexes me a bit.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    felix said:

    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    Ah the old 'dismissal of the polling I don't like' syndrome emerges
    Indeed not.Quirks are for buirks and the trend is your friend.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is Eck throwing Tunnock's Tea Cakes at the telly watching Dr Who?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited August 2014
    kle4 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    For some reason, the specific compromises, shifts in position, u-turns and falsities the LDs have engaged in since 2010 have saddled them with the label of being apparently the only political party to ever engage in such behaviour. Strongly Labour people see them as traitors, strongly Tory people see them as deceitful undermining 'allies' and most of the rest see them as ineffective and wishy washy I would guess.
    kle4 said:

    If the Tories are losing the toxicity of their brand, it would be remarkable, but I cannot see it lasting. I've never come across quite the same level of hatred for Labour that many people have for the Tories, despite living in a Tory heartland. Still, anything is possible I suppose, worth keeping an eye on. Cameron no longer polling better than his party?

    Congratulations, sir, it appears you have isolated and identified the toxin.

    For the LibDems, it's running an election campaign to the left of Labour Party, but ending up in coalition with the Conservative Party.

    For the Tories, it's throwing their erstwhile friends under buses. Current examples: their entire membership - 'swivel-eyed', social and religious conservatives - 'bigots', Eurosceptics (no Lisbon referendum), patriots - 'racists' and, finally, the providers of annuities (largest industry of its kind in the World). Remember, it was the callous destruction of mortgagees and small businessmen/self-employed under Major that gave the Tories the epithet in the first place.

    Cameron de-toxifying the Conservatives? He seems to have concentrated it with his chumocracy and his reducing the membership to laughable numbers.

    Personally, I think it's to do with their attending boarding schools.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    Especially good question in the middle of the UKIP hate-fest the bien-pensant lefty press has been trying to generate all year.

    And not looking good for that nice Mr Miliband at all, at all. 2% lead, personally despised, party despised, untrusted on economy, 8 months to go. I worry about it a lot.

    Hope all is going well with you @Ishmael_X‌.

    And yep, are people coming to their senses? Thing is, the closeness of the Kippers to the Cons on several of the questions perplexes me a bit.
    All looking good so far, thank you.

    The thing is, every GE since and not including 1979, except 1992, has been a foregone conclusion. This time everything is up for grabs, to the extent that I am not sure it is rational to place any bet on the outcome at all. The complacency of the Kinnockariat just astonishes me.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Dear Peter the Punter,

    I've been having problems with Vanilla the last couple of days, but I sent you a PM via our profiles before your deadline accepting your £20 Fisher bet. If you're still willing to honour the terms I'm still willing to take you up it. Naturally, this is void if more polls come out, so please reply soon.

    Q
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    volcanopete said:

    felix said:

    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    Ah the old 'dismissal of the polling I don't like' syndrome emerges
    Indeed not.Quirks are for buirks and the trend is your friend.

    Indeed so, and here's a trend for you: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3

    I bet you love that one.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    What would concern me about the favourability figures if I were either Labour or Conservative is that in both the case of the Libdems and UKIP their favourability figures are higher than their actual vote share which suggests that both have audiences which whilst not yet convinced to vote for them will give them a favourable hearing. There is room for both UKIP and the Libdems to improve their positions if they can tap into that additional favourability. For Labour and the Conservatives (to a lesser extent) the opposite applies
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Simon

    " Roger - before we fall out again, may I just say - really nice to see your return to PB. ; )"

    Thank you!

    To return the compliment and in the absence of Tim can I suggest this candid action man photo could be the reason for Dave's spiralling rating?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/31/1406786454335_wps_9_PIC_APEX_22_08_2013_Prime.jpg
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    UKIP was always going to be a bit of a detox for the Tories.

    The old line that the Tories are evil ratbags doesn't work so well when you also add that UKIP are even worse. It just smacks of left-wingers branding anyone who disagrees with them as bad people.

    Most amusing the most Lib Dems are seen as the least favourable despite making hang wringing an art form.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ninoinoz said:

    kle4 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    For some reason, the specific compromises, shifts in position, u-turns and falsities the LDs have engaged in since 2010 have saddled them with the label of being apparently the only political party to ever engage in such behaviour. Strongly Labour people see them as traitors, strongly Tory people see them as deceitful undermining 'allies' and most of the rest see them as ineffective and wishy washy I would guess.
    kle4 said:

    If the Tories are losing the toxicity of their brand, it would be remarkable, but I cannot see it lasting. I've never come across quite the same level of hatred for Labour that many people have for the Tories, despite living in a Tory heartland. Still, anything is possible I suppose, worth keeping an eye on. Cameron no longer polling better than his party?

    Congratulations, sir, it appears you have isolated and identified the toxin.

    For the LibDems, it's running an election campaign to the left of Labour Party, but ending up in coalition with the Conservative Party.

    For the Tories, it's throwing their erstwhile friends under buses. Current examples: their entire membership - 'swivel-eyed', social and religious conservatives - 'bigots', Eurosceptics (no Lisbon referendum), patriots - 'racists' and, finally, the providers of annuities (largest industry of its kind in the World). Remember, it was the callous destruction of mortgagees and small businessmen/self-employed under Major that gave the Tories the epithet in the first place.

    Cameron de-toxifying the Conservatives? He seems to have concentrated it with his chumocracy and his reducing the membership to laughable numbers.

    Personally, I think it's to do with their attending boarding schools.
    My sister is a 'social and religious' conservative. She is a regular churchgoer and actually believes in God as well. When her son got married (to a woman I should add) there were 3 gay people at his wedding. She gets on with them quite well and is not horrified at the issue of gay partnership or marriage.
    Her experience and the polling which show clear majorities in favour of gay marriage in all 4 parties tells me that your analysis 'is not only not right, it is not even wrong'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Roger said:

    Simon

    " Roger - before we fall out again, may I just say - really nice to see your return to PB. ; )"

    Thank you!

    To return the compliment and in the absence of Tim can I suggest this candid action man photo could be the reason for Dave's spiralling rating?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/31/1406786454335_wps_9_PIC_APEX_22_08_2013_Prime.jpg

    I hate that photo, mostly because it makes me realize I look very similar in build, but am 20 years younger.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    Teresa May did not call her own party 'nasty'.
    There was me thinking that rewriting history was something only 'The Party' did.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited August 2014
    CopperSulphate said:

    UKIP was always going to be a bit of a detox for the Tories.

    The old line that the Tories are evil ratbags doesn't work so well when you also add that UKIP are even worse. It just smacks of left-wingers branding anyone who disagrees with them as bad people.

    Most amusing the most Lib Dems are seen as the least favourable despite making hang wringing an art form.

    Given much of the Tory toxicity is to do with them being the party of the rich elite and their being 'Toffs' and given UKIP are increasingly a working class party (and their support proves that) I'd say you have little chance of attempting to paint UKIP with the same tainted brush that the Tories are painted with.

    Its notable that Labour have been far more circumspect in their attacks on UKIP than they are on the 'Same Old' Tories...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Being in Coalition with Labour for two Parliamentary terms didn't do the Libdems much good at Holyrood.
    felix said:

    One thing that all the polls show is that coalitions are very bad for the LDs and I think they can only blame themselves for that. Almost from the start they have tried to be the opposition within the government - it's a pretty lousy message to give.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    GIN1138 said:

    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!

    Three hours till this week's Sunil on Sunday publishes its ELBOW :)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Quincel said:

    Dear Peter the Punter,

    I've been having problems with Vanilla the last couple of days, but I sent you a PM via our profiles before your deadline accepting your £20 Fisher bet. If you're still willing to honour the terms I'm still willing to take you up it. Naturally, this is void if more polls come out, so please reply soon.

    Q

    I believe you're confusing me with a similarly named poster and certainly I haven't received any message from you on my Vanilla profile page - perhaps you sent it to PtP's profile in error.
    Not sure why you didn't reply on the thread last night, but in light of this evening's ComRes poll, clearly the odds have moved against me and therefore I wouldn't now wish to procced, but thanks for your interest.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    It may be Comedy results but if it quietens the overconfidence of the left on here, its a welcome poll.

    Its still all to play for.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    That's it ?

    as Mrs Brooke might say.

    The Tories no longer being toxic is major news.
    how are the Lib Dem's doing? << innocent face>>
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AnasSarwar: Every nationalist loves Scotland but not everyone who loves Scotland is a nationalist. New #LabourNo poster #indyref http://t.co/SzG1JNOilz
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Scott_P said:

    @AnasSarwar: Every nationalist loves Scotland but not everyone who loves Scotland is a nationalist. New #LabourNo poster #indyref http://t.co/SzG1JNOilz

    Andrew Marr's "Great Scots" on BBC2 right now!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    edited August 2014
    fitalass said:

    Being in Coalition with Labour for two Parliamentary terms didn't do the Libdems much good at Holyrood.

    Holyrood Election 1999 LDs constituency vote 14.15%
    Holyrood Election 2003 LDs constituency vote 15.3%
    Holyrood Election 2007 LDs constituency vote 16.2%
    Holyrood Election 2011 LDs constituency vote 7.9%

    Let's take a wild guess at which coalition screwed the LDs.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    UKIP have certainly knocked the Conservatives off the top spot as public enemy No1 to many on the left. :)
    CopperSulphate said:

    UKIP was always going to be a bit of a detox for the Tories.

    The old line that the Tories are evil ratbags doesn't work so well when you also add that UKIP are even worse. It just smacks of left-wingers branding anyone who disagrees with them as bad people.

    Most amusing the most Lib Dems are seen as the least favourable despite making hang wringing an art form.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @labourpress: Ed Balls says Scotland would have to join the euro as 'least bad' option http://gu.com/p/4xxyd/tw via @guardian
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited August 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!

    Three hours till this week's Sunil on Sunday publishes its ELBOW :)
    Will The Sunil be able to find it's ELBOW from JackW's ARSE?

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Scott_P said:

    @AnasSarwar: Every nationalist loves Scotland but not everyone who loves Scotland is a nationalist. New #LabourNo poster #indyref http://t.co/SzG1JNOilz

    Now who can argue with that? I think we're all indebted to Anas Sawar for clearly stating what needed to be said. I'm particularly glad that these lovely children were here today to hear that speech. Not only was it authentic frontier gibberish, it expressed a courage little seen in this day and age.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,441
    Roger said:

    Simon

    " Roger - before we fall out again, may I just say - really nice to see your return to PB. ; )"

    Thank you!

    To return the compliment and in the absence of Tim can I suggest this candid action man photo could be the reason for Dave's spiralling rating?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/31/1406786454335_wps_9_PIC_APEX_22_08_2013_Prime.jpg

    Right, that's it.

    I said I would never vote for my local Tory MP because he was invisible in the constituency. Then he announced he was retiring, giving me the chance to vote Tory again.

    But that picture's made my mind up. I am never ever voting for a Cameron-led Conservative party.

    I mean, how could I ever vote for a party led by a man who does not have a single tuft, nay, a single hair, on his chest? The country needs to be run by virile men with acres of good, hearty chest hair, not these poncy-boys who scarcely seem to have passed puberty. I mean, it would be like voting for a woman, for Christ's sake...

    And I bet he waxes...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Scott_P said:

    @labourpress: Ed Balls says Scotland would have to join the euro as 'least bad' option http://gu.com/p/4xxyd/tw via @guardian

    I've always said Alex is secretly planning to join the Euro. It's the only thing that makes sense.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Uniondivvie

    "Holyrood Election 1999 LDs constituency vote 14.15%
    Holyrood Election 2003 LDs constituency vote 15.3%
    Holyrood Election 2007 LDs constituency vote 16.2%
    Holyrood Election 2011 LDs constituency vote 7.9%

    Let's take a wild guess at which coalition screwed the LDs."

    Bringing facts into the discussion is pretty low
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Interesting that now all the party leaders, including Salmond, have lower ratings than their parties. However, while for Cameron, Farage, Clegg and Salmond that difference is in single figures, Miliband has a rating 18% less than Labour.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    GIN1138 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!

    Three hours till this week's Sunil on Sunday publishes its ELBOW :)
    Will The Sunil be able to find it's ELBOW from JackW's ARSE?

    Well, JackW will certainly be able to discern his ARSE from our ELBOW!
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Flightpath said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    kle4 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    kle4 said:

    I

    Congratulations, sir, it appears you have isolated and identified the toxin.

    For the LibDems, it's running an election campaign to the left of Labour Party, but ending up in coalition with the Conservative Party.

    For the Tories, it's throwing their erstwhile friends under buses. Current examples: their entire membership - 'swivel-eyed', social and religious conservatives - 'bigots', Eurosceptics (no Lisbon referendum), patriots - 'racists' and, finally, the providers of annuities (largest industry of its kind in the World). Remember, it was the callous destruction of mortgagees and small businessmen/self-employed under Major that gave the Tories the epithet in the first place.

    Cameron de-toxifying the Conservatives? He seems to have concentrated it with his chumocracy and his reducing the membership to laughable numbers.

    Personally, I think it's to do with their attending boarding schools.
    My sister is a 'social and religious' conservative. She is a regular churchgoer and actually believes in God as well. When her son got married (to a woman I should add) there were 3 gay people at his wedding. She gets on with them quite well and is not horrified at the issue of gay partnership or marriage.
    Her experience and the polling which show clear majorities in favour of gay marriage in all 4 parties tells me that your analysis 'is not only not right, it is not even wrong'.
    Yeah, amazing how UKIP's rise 'coincided' with being the only party that opposed gay marriage.

    Equally amazing how such a 'vote-winner' led directly to a slump in Conservative ratings. And a mass exodus from that party.

    Also, adding belief in God as an afterthought in your anecdote hardly suggests your sister is that much of a 'religious conservative'.

    Congratulations to your nephew and his new wife, BTW.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited August 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!

    Three hours till this week's Sunil on Sunday publishes its ELBOW :)
    Will The Sunil be able to find it's ELBOW from JackW's ARSE?

    Well, JackW will certainly be able to discern his ARSE from our ELBOW!
    Is it worth staying up to Midnight for?

    Bearing in mind I've already had one let-down this evening...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ninoinoz said:

    Flightpath said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    kle4 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    kle4 said:

    I

    Congratulations, sir, it appears you have isolated and identified the toxin.

    For the LibDems, it's running an election campaign to the left of Labour Party, but ending up in coalition with the Conservative Party.

    For the Tories, it's throwing their erstwhile friends under buses. Current examples: their entire membership - 'swivel-eyed', social and religious conservatives - 'bigots', Eurosceptics (no Lisbon referendum), patriots - 'racists' and, finally, the providers of annuities (largest industry of its kind in the World). Remember, it was the callous destruction of mortgagees and small businessmen/self-employed under Major that gave the Tories the epithet in the first place.

    Cameron de-toxifying the Conservatives? He seems to have concentrated it with his chumocracy and his reducing the membership to laughable numbers.

    Personally, I think it's to do with their attending boarding schools.
    My sister is a 'social and religious' conservative. She is a regular churchgoer and actually believes in God as well. When her son got married (to a woman I should add) there were 3 gay people at his wedding. She gets on with them quite well and is not horrified at the issue of gay partnership or marriage.
    Her experience and the polling which show clear majorities in favour of gay marriage in all 4 parties tells me that your analysis 'is not only not right, it is not even wrong'.
    Yeah, amazing how UKIP's rise 'coincided' with being the only party that opposed gay marriage.
    Tbf the slump in Tory ratings was more to do with the terrible weather gay marriage caused rather than any disapproval of the policy itself.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    JosiasJessop said:

    Roger said:

    Simon

    " Roger - before we fall out again, may I just say - really nice to see your return to PB. ; )"

    Thank you!

    To return the compliment and in the absence of Tim can I suggest this candid action man photo could be the reason for Dave's spiralling rating?

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/31/1406786454335_wps_9_PIC_APEX_22_08_2013_Prime.jpg

    Right, that's it.

    I said I would never vote for my local Tory MP because he was invisible in the constituency. Then he announced he was retiring, giving me the chance to vote Tory again.

    But that picture's made my mind up. I am never ever voting for a Cameron-led Conservative party.

    I mean, how could I ever vote for a party led by a man who does not have a single tuft, nay, a single hair, on his chest? The country needs to be run by virile men with acres of good, hearty chest hair, not these poncy-boys who scarcely seem to have passed puberty. I mean, it would be like voting for a woman, for Christ's sake...

    And I bet he waxes...
    Nothing wrong with being hairy :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Important Polling in The Sunday Times, and they've used a picture of Nick Clegg and his Missus in the article

    WOMEN who have multiple sexual partners before tying the knot go on to have less happy marriages, researchers have found, while men can play the field without any evidence that it harms their contentment.

    More than half (53%) of those wives who had only ever slept with their future husband felt highly satisfied in their marriage, but those who had embarked on other sexual relationships fared significantly worse.

    The proportion dropped to 42% for those who had had premarital sex with two partners and plummeted to 22% for those with 10 or more.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    GIN1138 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Champagne's staying on ice for now...

    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Don't Fail Me Again... Mr Eagles"!

    Three hours till this week's Sunil on Sunday publishes its ELBOW :)
    Will The Sunil be able to find it's ELBOW from JackW's ARSE?

    Well, JackW will certainly be able to discern his ARSE from our ELBOW!
    Is it worth staying up to Midnight for?

    Bearing in mind I've already had one let-down this evening...
    Being an "Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week", it is not a prediction, but we will publish changes among the four main parties from last week's ELBOW.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Flightpath said:

    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    Teresa May did not call her own party 'nasty'.
    There was me thinking that rewriting history was something only 'The Party' did.
    This is the speech of a future leader.Ms May,who is a woman of deep insight, knew the Tory were the nasty party and said so.Can you prove the Tories aren't nasty?


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/oct/07/conservatives2002.conservatives1
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    CopperSulphate said:

    UKIP was always going to be a bit of a detox for the Tories.

    The old line that the Tories are evil ratbags doesn't work so well when you also add that UKIP are even worse. It just smacks of left-wingers branding anyone who disagrees with them as bad people.

    Most amusing the most Lib Dems are seen as the least favourable despite making hang wringing an art form.

    The public dislikes being badly treated by the Tories, but they feel betrayal far more strongly.

    UKIP are yet to betray anyone - although somewhere within the manifesto "ripping up" process I think there may be issues for other parties to exploit.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    volcanopete said:

    Ms May,who is a woman of deep insight, knew the Tory were the nasty party and said so.

    Reading comprehension isnt your strong suit, is it?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Alanbrooke said:

    Roger said:

    Alanbrooke


    Luvvie land as you well know moves up to Edinburgh for most of August.

    How are the tractor boys? Still trying to squeeze that fourth Conservative Club into the main street?

    Well as you know this time of the year it's wall to wall Wurzels.

    We have our own festivals including Ludlow blackshirt solidarity week, Bewdley Bernard Manning commemoration and ANL fisting in Southam. It's a packed programme.
    How does Southam feel about that????
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    volcanopete said:

    Flightpath said:

    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    Teresa May did not call her own party 'nasty'.
    There was me thinking that rewriting history was something only 'The Party' did.
    This is the speech of a future leader.Ms May,who is a woman of deep insight, knew the Tory were the nasty party and said so.Can you prove the Tories aren't nasty?


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/oct/07/conservatives2002.conservatives1
    What she actually said.

    There's a lot we need to do in this party of ours. Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies. You know what some people call us - the nasty party.

    I know that's unfair
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Neil said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Flightpath said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    kle4 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    It would sem that the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg have replaced the Conservatives as the toxic party.

    How is it that the cuddly, harmless, sandle wearing Lib Dems are seen as being so toxic?

    kle4 said:

    I

    Congratulations, sir, it appears you have isolated and identified the toxin.

    For the LibDems, it's running an election campaign to the left of Labour Party, but ending up in coalition with the Conservative Party.

    For the Tories, it's throwing their erstwhile friends under buses. Current examples: their entire membership - 'swivel-eyed', social and religious conservatives - 'bigots', Eurosceptics (no Lisbon referendum), patriots - 'racists' and, finally, the providers of annuities (largest industry of its kind in the World). Remember, it was the callous destruction of mortgagees and small businessmen/self-employed under Major that gave the Tories the epithet in the first place.

    Cameron de-toxifying the Conservatives? He seems to have concentrated it with his chumocracy and his reducing the membership to laughable numbers.

    Personally, I think it's to do with their attending boarding schools.
    My sister is a 'social and religious' conservative. She is a regular churchgoer and actually believes in God as well. When her son got married (to a woman I should add) there were 3 gay people at his wedding. She gets on with them quite well and is not horrified at the issue of gay partnership or marriage.
    Her experience and the polling which show clear majorities in favour of gay marriage in all 4 parties tells me that your analysis 'is not only not right, it is not even wrong'.
    Yeah, amazing how UKIP's rise 'coincided' with being the only party that opposed gay marriage.
    Tbf the slump in Tory ratings was more to do with the terrible weather gay marriage caused rather than any disapproval of the policy itself.
    OK attempt at a gag. 5/10

    A rather more serious point would have been its announcement in the same month as the 'Omnishambles Budget'. That certainly makes the causes of the fall in support difficult to disentangle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    volcanopete said:

    Can't see how the Tories can be seen to be anything other than evil in one month is a statistical quirk.The only way forward for them to achieve this in the longer term is to be led by Ms Teresa May who isolated the problem when she called her own party nasty so she should be able to solve it.I can't see more Etonomics doing it.

    FYI - It is Theresa May.

    Teresa May is a porn star.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pamela Geller ‏@PamelaGeller 42m
    Jewish man arrested after chasing off pro-Hamas Jew haters in London: Jewish persecution in the UK. The Brits ... http://bit.ly/YO9cLC

    British cops in magnificent form tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    MikeK said:

    Pamela Geller ‏@PamelaGeller 42m
    Jewish man arrested after chasing off pro-Hamas Jew haters in London: Jewish persecution in the UK. The Brits ... http://bit.ly/YO9cLC

    British cops in magnificent form tonight.

    Well done for linking to Pamela Geller, a woman banned from this country for her views, the SPLC have damned her as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Bloody effing hell, and they call Better Together, Project Fear

    Tom Lubbock ‏@tmlbk 2m

    New peak of crazy: “@KingOfPipeBombs: So people are still going to #VoteNo in September ? #VoteYes #indyref

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvwHH4iCIAEVjmq.jpg
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MikeK said:

    Pamela Geller ‏@PamelaGeller 42m
    Jewish man arrested after chasing off pro-Hamas Jew haters in London: Jewish persecution in the UK. The Brits ... http://bit.ly/YO9cLC

    British cops in magnificent form tonight.

    Pamela Geller...
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    When is Cameron going to get a grip?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/23/observer-editorial-isis-cameron-foreign-policy
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    corporeal said:

    MikeK said:

    Pamela Geller ‏@PamelaGeller 42m
    Jewish man arrested after chasing off pro-Hamas Jew haters in London: Jewish persecution in the UK. The Brits ... http://bit.ly/YO9cLC

    British cops in magnificent form tonight.

    Pamela Geller...
    She seems to have taken the banning to heart...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    The Scotsman - Brian Wilson: SNP’s NHS scaremongering won’t work
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    volcanopete said:

    When is Cameron going to get a grip?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/23/observer-editorial-isis-cameron-foreign-policy

    Why don't you tell us what you think the article says, and we will try to explain to you how you have misunderstood it.

This discussion has been closed.