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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Indyref polling round up – Could the NHS be what wins it fo

SystemSystem Posts: 11,688
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Indyref polling round up – Could the NHS be what wins it for Yes?

First up Panelbase for Yes Scotland, historically Panelbase have produced some of the smallest No leads. The fieldwork was this week, between the 12th and the 15th, The first question asked was the referendum question, in the past some Panelbase polls have not done this.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    First?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    and when are we expecting the ICM poll?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited August 2014
    Broken, sleazy NO on the slide...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited August 2014
    Far far too close for comfort. Darling scoring a clear victory in the next debate more would be nice, though I don't know how likely that is to happen twice.

    Night all.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    ICM is 55 No 45 Yes.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ALEX Salmond is losing the battle to convince voters that his currency plans are credible – yet people are still moving to a Yes vote, a new poll reveals today.

    An exclusive opinion poll for Scotland on Sunday, published just one month before the crucial vote, reveals that support for independence still lags behind the No vote, but has risen by 4 percentage points since last month to 38 per cent.

    Over the same period, support for a No vote has risen two percentage points to 47 per cent, as the percentage of undecided voters fell 7 percentage points to 14 per cent.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/yes-vote-advancing-despite-plan-b-concerns-poll-1-3511982
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited August 2014
    I need the final result to be somewhere between 43.01 and 49.99 for Yes so that I win the bets I have on both sides. These two polls make me somewhat hopeful.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Blog Advert

    "You don't have to be a hypocritical coward to be a bookmaker... but it helps"

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487
    UPDATED THE ICM FIGURES IN THE THREAD HEADER
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting data, thanks.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,487
    For about the last eight hours, I've been either laughing or been utterly bemused that the Union could end because of the NHS.

    I wonder if Labour now regret that 24 hours to save the NHS meme in the 1997 general election campaign.
  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    As health is already devolved and its finance already inside the Barnett formulae, I do not agree with the premis in the question posed by the poll.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    A new book - Working Stiff - by a former medical examiner offers an interesting observation.

    For folks who die with a dog in the house, the dog will typically pine for its owner and stay near him / her and guard the body.

    For folks who die with a cat in the house, the cat will eat you.
  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    ICM
    If the DKs break in favour of NO by 2:1 then the true figures excluding the DKs are: NO: 56; YES: 43. One third of 14 is just under 5. So 38+5 is 43.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    People trafficking in Thurrock - Main Story on Daily Mail website

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2726489/BREAKING-NEWS-Man-dead-hospital-significant-health-problems-31-adults-children-shipping-container-Tilbury-Docks.html

    7/1 UKIP in S Basildon & E Thurrock #value
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tim_B said:

    A new book - Working Stiff - by a former medical examiner offers an interesting observation.

    For folks who die with a dog in the house, the dog will typically pine for its owner and stay near him / her and guard the body.

    For folks who die with a cat in the house, the cat will eat you.

    I told that story a week back!

    Although the article I read (admittedly in the LA Times) said it was the former LA coroner...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    edited August 2014
    RobD said:

    First?

    NO will favour Labour in the short to medium term regarding Westminster, YES will favour the Tories.

    Simples :)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim_B said:

    A new book - Working Stiff - by a former medical examiner offers an interesting observation.

    For folks who die with a dog in the house, the dog will typically pine for its owner and stay near him / her and guard the body.

    For folks who die with a cat in the house, the cat will eat you.

    Truly horrible news for cat lovers.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    "The true scale of Britain's “underclass” has been revealed by a government initiative that has uncovered 500,000 problem families, estimated to cost the country £30bn":

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Society/article1447828.ece
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Charles said:

    Tim_B said:

    A new book - Working Stiff - by a former medical examiner offers an interesting observation.

    For folks who die with a dog in the house, the dog will typically pine for its owner and stay near him / her and guard the body.

    For folks who die with a cat in the house, the cat will eat you.

    I told that story a week back!

    Although the article I read (admittedly in the LA Times) said it was the former LA coroner...
    She was NYC - but if it's been more than a week, you're not food for thought for the cat any more :-(
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    A new book - Working Stiff - by a former medical examiner offers an interesting observation.

    For folks who die with a dog in the house, the dog will typically pine for its owner and stay near him / her and guard the body.

    For folks who die with a cat in the house, the cat will eat you.

    Truly horrible news for cat lovers.
    I am a cat lover.. my boy wouldn't do that to me!
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Who wrote this then?

    The Scottish Parliament has responsibility for the health service and that means we can protect NHS budgets.

    SNP Manifesto 2011
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For about the last eight hours, I've been either laughing or been utterly bemused that the Union could end because of the NHS.

    I wonder if Labour now regret that 24 hours to save the NHS meme in the 1997 general election campaign.

    If the Union ends, credit, or blame, can be firmly laid at Labour's door - they started this process (which Major warned would lead to separation) and it's Labour voters who will swing the result.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    MikeL said:

    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.

    I suspect Salmond will bring it up in round 2.....

    Meanwhile, while it wasn't among the reasons offered for voting "no" in the poll of women, currency uncertainty and economic concerns were the top 2:

    Currency: 32
    Poorer economic performance: 27
    Proud of being part of UK: 26

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf

  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    CarlottaVance said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.

    I suspect Salmond will bring it up in round 2.....

    Meanwhile, while it wasn't among the reasons offered for voting "no" in the poll of women, currency uncertainty and economic concerns were the top 2:

    Currency: 32
    Poorer economic performance: 27
    Proud of being part of UK: 26

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf

    He may do but it's too vague.

    The point is that the ordinary person does not notice any change to the NHS - even if some contract is awarded to a US firm nobody actually sees that when they go into their GP or A&E.

    Unless you can actually see something, it won't resonate.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For about the last eight hours, I've been either laughing or been utterly bemused that the Union could end because of the NHS.

    I wonder if Labour now regret that 24 hours to save the NHS meme in the 1997 general election campaign.

    If the Union ends, credit, or blame, can be firmly laid at Labour's door - they started this process (which Major warned would lead to separation) and it's Labour voters who will swing the result.
    It was Mrs Thatcher who turned the Conservative Party into one perceived as anti-Scottish, and as you can see from the poll at the top, that perception lingers. That means that roughly half the time, the government of the United Kingdom is seen as anti-Scottish. Nothing to do with Labour, unless you mean it is Labour's fault for not having won the 2010 election.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    MikeL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.

    I suspect Salmond will bring it up in round 2.....

    Meanwhile, while it wasn't among the reasons offered for voting "no" in the poll of women, currency uncertainty and economic concerns were the top 2:

    Currency: 32
    Poorer economic performance: 27
    Proud of being part of UK: 26

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf

    He may do but it's too vague.

    The point is that the ordinary person does not notice any change to the NHS - even if some contract is awarded to a US firm nobody actually sees that when they go into their GP or A&E.

    Unless you can actually see something, it won't resonate.
    Unfortunately Labour in England are running around shroud waving over "NHS Privatisation" - doing the SNP's work for them.....
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    Far far too close for comfort. Darling scoring a clear victory in the next debate more would be nice, though I don't know how likely that is to happen twice.

    Night all.

    The influence of the debate was always likely to wane, as we saw with the Cleggasm. The number of Yes supporters whose vote is entirely tied to perceptions of Alex Salmond is probably vanishingly small -- it is not as if they wanted Independence Now but to rejoin the union once Salmond retires.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    Blog Advert

    "You don't have to be a hypocritical coward to be a bookmaker... but it helps"

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/

    Very interesting. BetVictor? To be critical: you are rather preaching to the choir; and how do the traders get on with other firms if the public cannot?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    On topic, I don't think 11/2 is value. The polls are unanimously finding a clear, fairly stable lead for no, and undecided voters in referendums tend to pick the status quo, which matches what we see when ICM squeeze them. Salmond is very talented, but there's not much time left, and at this point it's just very hard to see how yes could turn it around.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited August 2014
    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th August - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%; APP -24

    Slight movement against the Tories in the supplementaries.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    edmundintokyo said:

    there's not much time left, and at this point it's just very hard to see how yes could turn it around.

    Not if you read Comical James on the blog that shall not be named.....where it is "No" in need of the game-changer....
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Charles said:

    Tim_B said:

    A new book - Working Stiff - by a former medical examiner offers an interesting observation.

    For folks who die with a dog in the house, the dog will typically pine for its owner and stay near him / her and guard the body.

    For folks who die with a cat in the house, the cat will eat you.

    I told that story a week back!

    Although the article I read (admittedly in the LA Times) said it was the former LA coroner...
    People do it too, sometimes.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    JohnO said:

    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th August - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%; APP -24

    Slight movement against the Tories in the supplementaries.

    People pretty relaxed over Cameron's handling of the Middle East - and opposition to Scottish independence and a currency union strenghthening vs 6 months ago:

    Opposed to currency union (net): +33 (+8)
    Opposed to Scottish independence (net): +45 (+8)

    Our separatist friends still confident they'll get a currency union past a grumpy rUK electorate?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    CarlottaVance said:

    JohnO said:

    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th August - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%; APP -24

    Slight movement against the Tories in the supplementaries.

    People pretty relaxed over Cameron's handling of the Middle East - and opposition to Scottish independence and a currency union strenghthening vs 6 months ago:

    Opposed to currency union (net): +33 (+8)
    Opposed to Scottish independence (net): +45 (+8)

    Our separatist friends still confident they'll get a currency union past a grumpy rUK electorate?
    Hm, the 'opposed to scottish independence' question is a bit strange, it isn't rUK's decision. Was it +45 for those that expressed a yes/no opinion?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    The Gap is closing, the remaining 14% of ‘undecided’ splitting 2:1 in favour of NO will be pivotal to the final outcome imho – I wonder what Salmond can do between now and the 18th to reverse the trend?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Taking the 11-2 is like backing the draw in a test where one side is miles ahead and there is a chance of rain to lay it off lower.

    Ultimately it won't win though. And it may not rain.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    RobD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    JohnO said:

    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th August - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%; APP -24

    Slight movement against the Tories in the supplementaries.

    People pretty relaxed over Cameron's handling of the Middle East - and opposition to Scottish independence and a currency union strenghthening vs 6 months ago:

    Opposed to currency union (net): +33 (+8)
    Opposed to Scottish independence (net): +45 (+8)

    Our separatist friends still confident they'll get a currency union past a grumpy rUK electorate?
    Hm, the 'opposed to scottish independence' question is a bit strange, it isn't rUK's decision. Was it +45 for those that expressed a yes/no opinion?
    There wasn't a SINDY VI asked, as, as you observe, 92% of the UK does not get a vote. That does not of course stop them having an opinion. For fun (as it's unweighted so not meaningful) the YouGov Scottish subsample split 32 pro, 57 anti-independence.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bm0fuq6bgy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140815.pdf

    Interestingly, opposition to a currency union is pretty uniform across the country - one might have thought Northerners, potentially facing greater inconvenience, more accepting, but no, at +40 net opposed they are as resolutely against as EW in total (+39)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    MikeL said:

    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.

    It is certainly a hot topic up here and most people see the privatisation in England as bad and are now realising that it will impact Scotland's NHS badly as budgets are slashed.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    Financier said:

    As health is already devolved and its finance already inside the Barnett formulae, I do not agree with the premis in the question posed by the poll.

    That is because you are stupid and don't know how Barnett works.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    More YouGov - Trident - if SINDY& have to move (E&W)

    Scrap it: 17
    Build new base rUK: 46
    Try a deal withScotland: 17

    Only the LibDems are split between scrap/move (37/38), while those most in favour of a deal are the Scots (28)
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    CarlottaVance said:

    Who wrote this then?

    The Scottish Parliament has responsibility for the health service and that means we can protect NHS budgets.

    SNP Manifesto 2011

    It is only true as long as you get your pocket money and despite cuts they have kept their promise, hence they are popular. Unionists find that hard to understand, when you don't lie and cheat , surprisingly people think you are good.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    CarlottaVance said:

    More YouGov - Trident - if SINDY& have to move (E&W)

    Scrap it: 17
    Build new base rUK: 46
    Try a deal withScotland: 17

    Only the LibDems are split between scrap/move (37/38), while those most in favour of a deal are the Scots (28)

    Scrap it. We need the money for conventional forces, including air mobile special forces for the threats that we face. That and electronic warfare. More money and powers for GCHQ.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.

    It is certainly a hot topic up here and most people see the privatisation in England as bad and are now realising that it will impact Scotland's NHS badly as budgets are slashed.

    He's not the only stupid one then is he:

    Who wrote this then?

    The Scottish Parliament has responsibility for the health service and that means we can protect NHS budgets.

    SNP Manifesto 2011
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Curtice on the ICM poll:

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/08/icm-suggest-no-leaders-debate-boost-for-better-together/
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Good morning, everyone.

    A worthy reminder the vote hasn't been won or lost yet.

    When's the window for postal voting?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Who wrote this then?

    The Scottish Parliament has responsibility for the health service and that means we can protect NHS budgets.

    SNP Manifesto 2011

    when you don't lie and cheat , surprisingly people think you are good.
    Scottish women:

    Alex Salmond (Alastair Darling)
    Honest: 10 (15)
    Dishonest: 29 (20)

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf

    You were saying?

    But I'm perfectly happy for the Nats to continue to ignore their Salmond problem.....
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    Of course, voters across the UK - not just in Scotland - are opposed to NHS privatisation. That's why it won't happen. It's more SNP dishonesty to claim it will. But looking for and creating divisions is what they are all about. And because they are so wedded to separation and creating borders they'll say anything to achieve their aim, safe in the knowledge that with a Yes secured it does not matter if everything they have claimed turns out to be false.

    Anyway, that ICM is not half as bad for No as the SoS headline had suggested. But it's still going to be very tight. And, as I said last night, it's no good to any of us to stick together just because one of us is too worried to leave.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,003
    foxinsoxuk said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    More YouGov - Trident - if SINDY& have to move (E&W)

    Scrap it: 17
    Build new base rUK: 46
    Try a deal withScotland: 17

    Only the LibDems are split between scrap/move (37/38), while those most in favour of a deal are the Scots (28)

    Scrap it. We need the money for conventional forces, including air mobile special forces for the threats that we face. That and electronic warfare. More money and powers for GCHQ.
    There may be a threat again of nuclear war; possible, but (IMHO anyway) highly unlikely. What is and will be needed is a reasonably large mobile force and the capacity to transport it quickly and, as posted above the ability to gather intelligence.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited August 2014
    SouthamObserver said:


    Anyway, that ICM is not half as bad for No as the SoS headline had suggested.

    This is where you get a conspiracy of everyone involved in the last stages of a campaign to trick the voters into thinking it's tighter than it really is.

    The media pretend it's close because a close race is more interesting, the losing side pretend it's close to keep morale up and the winning side pretend it's close to help prod their people into turning out.

    But it's not close.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Talk of plots......

    Sturgeon coup plot "within days" of a No vote

    NICOLA Sturgeon will launch a bid to oust Alex Salmond “within days” of a No vote in the referendum, a former SNP MP has predicted.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/500284/Sturgeon-coup-plot-within-days-of-a-No-vote
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edmundintokyo said:

    SouthamObserver said:


    Anyway, that ICM is not half as bad for No as the SoS headline had suggested.

    This is where you get a conspiracy of everyone involved in the last stages of a campaign to trick the voters into thinking it's tighter than it really is.

    The media pretend it's close because a close race is more interesting, the losing side pretend it's close to keep morale up and the winning side pretend it's close to help prod their people into turning out.

    But it's not close.

    I may be in Tokyo at the start of September (2nd/3rd), staying at the Okura. Are you around then?

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I guess I could end up with egg on my face, but I don't believe the Panelbase figures nor Opinium.

    And now to prepare before the Oval....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Hypocrites, much?

    ...... the Scottish NHS had spent £400 million buying patient services from private health firms since the SNP took office.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-nhs-is-the-key-in-bid-to-win-female-vote-for-yes.25067884
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Given that undecideds in ICM are predicted to go No by a 2 to 1 ratio that gives No 57 % and Yes 43 % or MOE for 60:40.
    The PanelBase garbage is a waste of Souter's money.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    SouthamObserver said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SouthamObserver said:


    Anyway, that ICM is not half as bad for No as the SoS headline had suggested.

    This is where you get a conspiracy of everyone involved in the last stages of a campaign to trick the voters into thinking it's tighter than it really is.

    The media pretend it's close because a close race is more interesting, the losing side pretend it's close to keep morale up and the winning side pretend it's close to help prod their people into turning out.

    But it's not close.

    I may be in Tokyo at the start of September (2nd/3rd), staying at the Okura. Are you around then?

    That's an awesome hotel, good call to stay there now before they tear the place down for the Olympics. (Petition to save it here: http://savetheokura.com/ )

    I'll be around, let's get dinner or a drink or something. Let me know when your plans firm up - my email is ed at realitykeys.com.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WhatScotsThink: Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. http://t.co/Qi4D5NezXi. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    All the polls say only one thing. YES are doooooooooooooooooooomed. Which is kind of sad since I do believe the Scots really want to create a Scandinivian type social democracy.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Scott_P said:

    @WhatScotsThink: Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. http://t.co/Qi4D5NezXi. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.

    Not quite the impression given by Comical James......
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "Could the NHS win it for Labour in England ? That should be the question.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    CarlottaVance said:

    Talk of plots......

    Sturgeon coup plot "within days" of a No vote

    NICOLA Sturgeon will launch a bid to oust Alex Salmond “within days” of a No vote in the referendum, a former SNP MP has predicted.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/500284/Sturgeon-coup-plot-within-days-of-a-No-vote

    Unionists getting desperate, they will be like ferrets in a sack after a YES vote.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    surbiton said:

    All the polls say only one thing. YES are doooooooooooooooooooomed. Which is kind of sad since I do believe the Scots really want to create a Scandinivian type social democracy.

    Salmond doesn't, he wants to cut corporation tax. He wants to to create an enormous antiseptic golf club for boring fat businessmen.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    Scott_P said:

    @WhatScotsThink: Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. http://t.co/Qi4D5NezXi. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.

    Thick turnip .............no change
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. G, I fear ferrets in a sack may prove an accurate description of potential separation negotiations.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WhatScotsThink: Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. http://t.co/Qi4D5NezXi. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.

    Not quite the impression given by Comical James......
    TSE is putting in some extra masala to pipe up stale curry !
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Given that undecideds in ICM are predicted to go No by a 2 to 1 ratio that gives No 57 % and Yes 43 % or MOE for 60:40.
    The PanelBase garbage is a waste of Souter's money.

    Meanwhile in the real world they actually go 2:1 to YES
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WhatScotsThink: Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. http://t.co/Qi4D5NezXi. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.

    Not quite the impression given by Comical James......
    To be fair, juggernauts take time to speed up :')
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Something to look forward to.....

    Ecklaration of Arbroath: Alex Salmond invokes spirit of Robert the Bruce as he unveils his own Declaration in independence push

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ecklaration-arbroath-alex-salmond-invokes-4063547
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edmundintokyo said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SouthamObserver said:


    Anyway, that ICM is not half as bad for No as the SoS headline had suggested.

    This is where you get a conspiracy of everyone involved in the last stages of a campaign to trick the voters into thinking it's tighter than it really is.

    The media pretend it's close because a close race is more interesting, the losing side pretend it's close to keep morale up and the winning side pretend it's close to help prod their people into turning out.

    But it's not close.

    I may be in Tokyo at the start of September (2nd/3rd), staying at the Okura. Are you around then?

    That's an awesome hotel, good call to stay there now before they tear the place down for the Olympics. (Petition to save it here: http://savetheokura.com/ )

    I'll be around, let's get dinner or a drink or something. Let me know when your plans firm up - my email is ed at realitykeys.com.

    We're holding an event there on 4th:

    http://www.ipbusinesscongress.com/japan/2014/Default.aspx

    So they've comped us some rooms. The 2nd looks best for me. It's 90% sure I'll be there, so a drink and/or dinner would be great. I'll drop you an email.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Wake me up when a poll shows more undecideds breaking YEs than NO. Until then, this indy ref is an ex-campaign, bereft of life it lies, pushing up the daisies......
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,720
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I fear ferrets in a sack may prove an accurate description of potential separation negotiations.

    Today's YOUGov was pretty unequivocal - no currency union and move Trident.

    So that's a fox shot, and a trump card trumped.....
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The Scots opinion have not really changed in the last two years.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    A worthy reminder the vote hasn't been won or lost yet.

    When's the window for postal voting?

    You can apply to have postal vote up until 5pm on 3rd September.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Is there any suggestion that Nicola Sturgeon would have played the campaign differently but has been over-ridden by Salmond? Unless she has a different take on say currency Plan B, then she should take as much responsibility for a NO vote as Salmond.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Some views of Muslims on the Caliphate:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/28774984

    Found it more interesting than I thought it might be.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    @WhatScotsThink: Poll of polls updated to take account of both of today's #indyref polls. http://t.co/Qi4D5NezXi. Yes 43, No 57 = no change.

    Not quite the impression given by Comical James......
    You and Scott are easily pleased , a right pair of dummies.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Given that undecideds in ICM are predicted to go No by a 2 to 1 ratio that gives No 57 % and Yes 43 % or MOE for 60:40.
    The PanelBase garbage is a waste of Souter's money.

    Meanwhile in the real world they actually go 2:1 to YES
    66:33, tick tock.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    surbiton said:

    "Could the NHS win it for Labour in England ? That should be the question.

    Well it won't in Wales....

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    MarqueeMark said:

    Wake me up when a poll shows more undecideds breaking YEs than NO. Until then, this indy ref is an ex-campaign, bereft of life it lies, pushing up the daisies......

    Keep running up that hill Babooshka and you may even get a cup of tea
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    CarlottaVance said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I fear ferrets in a sack may prove an accurate description of potential separation negotiations.

    Today's YOUGov was pretty unequivocal - no currency union and move Trident.

    So that's a fox shot, and a trump card trumped.....
    You are so gullible it is hard to believe.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    edited August 2014
    Cheers, Mr. G.

    I do loathe postal voting. I hope they don't make a difference, either way.

    Edited extra bit: on currency union, a politician backtracking on that would find his career dangling from a lamp post.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    malcolmg said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Given that undecideds in ICM are predicted to go No by a 2 to 1 ratio that gives No 57 % and Yes 43 % or MOE for 60:40.
    The PanelBase garbage is a waste of Souter's money.

    Meanwhile in the real world they actually go 2:1 to YES
    66:33, tick tock.

    Cuckoo does not begin to describe you
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    CarlottaVance said:

    MikeL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the NHS poll question is meaningless - it's just a leading question designed to give a particular answer.

    I doubt hardly anyone will be thinking about the NHS when they vote. I can't remember the NHS even being mentioned at all in the STV debate.

    I suspect Salmond will bring it up in round 2.....

    Meanwhile, while it wasn't among the reasons offered for voting "no" in the poll of women, currency uncertainty and economic concerns were the top 2:

    Currency: 32
    Poorer economic performance: 27
    Proud of being part of UK: 26

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf

    He may do but it's too vague.

    The point is that the ordinary person does not notice any change to the NHS - even if some contract is awarded to a US firm nobody actually sees that when they go into their GP or A&E.

    Unless you can actually see something, it won't resonate.
    Unfortunately Labour in England are running around shroud waving over "NHS Privatisation" - doing the SNP's work for them.....
    Unfortunately the Coalition are privatising the NHS in England doing the SNP;s work for them but helping Ed in his quest to be PM
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. G.

    I do loathe postal voting. I hope they don't make a difference, either way.

    Edited extra bit: on currency union, a politician backtracking on that would find his career dangling from a lamp post.

    Not keen on it either but going to use it this time as I will be busy on 18th packing my bucket and spade. TWO YES votes guaranteed.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:


    Thick turnip

    That's the view of Prof John Curtice

    You really are losing the plot Malcolm.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Owls, under Labour I was seen by a private hospital because the NHS couldn't see me in sufficient time. Should I have complained to my Labour MP about the evil privatisation?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    GIN was almost right when he pedicted that YouGov would show Labour's lead bouncing back to 5 (it's bounced back to 4). Lots of rather dull supplementaries - people generally feel Obama and Cameron have got the Iraq crisis response about right, including whether to return from holiday, and they aren't really sure what the effect of Saddam still being in power would be, which seems fair enough for an alternative history over such a period. Lots of don't knows on many questions suggesting a lack of strong views.

    Overall we seem back to the holding pattern of polls revolving around a Labour lead of 3-4.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    malcolmg said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Given that undecideds in ICM are predicted to go No by a 2 to 1 ratio that gives No 57 % and Yes 43 % or MOE for 60:40.
    The PanelBase garbage is a waste of Souter's money.

    Meanwhile in the real world they actually go 2:1 to YES
    66:33, tick tock.

    Cuckoo does not begin to describe you
    Malcolm's song;
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l5Wob-H-5uY
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    JohnO said:

    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th August - Con 34%, Lab 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%; APP -24

    Slight movement against the Tories in the supplementaries.

    Todays YG LAB 347 CON 261 LD 16 Other 26 (ukpr)

    Ed is Crap is PM
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    ''Unfortunately the Coalition are privatising the NHS in England doing the SNP;s work for them but helping Ed in his quest to be PM''

    Do you have a shred of evidence that people are being refused treatment free at the point of use? That they are being charged?

    Of course not.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited August 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. G.

    I do loathe postal voting. I hope they don't make a difference, either way.

    Edited extra bit: on currency union, a politician backtracking on that would find his career dangling from a lamp post.

    Not keen on it either but going to use it this time as I will be busy on 18th packing my bucket and spade. TWO YES votes guaranteed.
    I'd've thought you of all people would have enjoyed putting a Yes vote in a ballot box in the day itself!

    Regarding postal ballots, I feel the same way. Uneasy about their widespread adoption.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    malcolmg said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. G.

    I do loathe postal voting. I hope they don't make a difference, either way.

    Edited extra bit: on currency union, a politician backtracking on that would find his career dangling from a lamp post.

    Not keen on it either but going to use it this time as I will be busy on 18th packing my bucket and spade. TWO YES votes guaranteed.
    Will you be completing Mrs G's ballot? ;-)

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. G.

    I do loathe postal voting. I hope they don't make a difference, either way.

    Edited extra bit: on currency union, a politician backtracking on that would find his career dangling from a lamp post.

    Not keen on it either but going to use it this time as I will be busy on 18th packing my bucket and spade. TWO YES votes guaranteed.
    I'd've thought you of all people would have enjoyed putting a Yes vote in a ballot box in the day itself!

    Regarding postal ballots, I feel the same way. Uneasy about their widespread adoption.
    Rob, Yes I would but as said , I go on holiday the next day and want to be sure my wife votes as well , so taking no chances of anything going wrong by using postal vote.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,864
    Morning all :)

    Not for the first time I find myself in a minority. I've no issue with an independent Scotland being in a currency union with the rest of the UK though the Scots might consider it won't make them as independent as they might have hoped.

    Not for the first time either it all seems to be about bashing Salmond and the SNP on here this morning. I really don't get this antagonism - most of it is of course politics and once the Referendum is out of the way I imagine we'll have to find a modus vivendi apart from those who will move on to bash Ed Miliband ad infinitum and ad nauseam (well until next May anyway).

    There used to be some arguments knocking about - now, it's all about retweeting the partisan comments and spin - unfortunately, I fear, a taster for next spring.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Stodge, I think Salmond pisses off lots of English people. If he's not blaming us for holding back Scotland he's claiming to speak for Northerners (when he swanned down here reckoning an independent Scotland would help Northern England against London, for example).
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    Gadfly said:

    malcolmg said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. G.

    I do loathe postal voting. I hope they don't make a difference, either way.

    Edited extra bit: on currency union, a politician backtracking on that would find his career dangling from a lamp post.

    Not keen on it either but going to use it this time as I will be busy on 18th packing my bucket and spade. TWO YES votes guaranteed.
    Will you be completing Mrs G's ballot? ;-)

    LOL, I value my life too much to attempt that. I just have to keep her from wavering, she is not as strong a YES as I am.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    On the NHS, Had quite serious back issues. Saw my GP who sent me for an MRI scan, which identified the problem. Was referred for surgery which was fully successful. All of the above was paid for by the NHS, all of it was carried out by privatised providers. My GP, the scan and the surgery, all privatised, all excellent and all carried out within six weeks. More privatization of none emergency care would suit me down to the ground.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. G, I've got an image of you doing all the housework for a month to try and persuade Mrs G to vote Yes :p
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    malcolmg said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    malcolmg said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Given that undecideds in ICM are predicted to go No by a 2 to 1 ratio that gives No 57 % and Yes 43 % or MOE for 60:40.
    The PanelBase garbage is a waste of Souter's money.

    Meanwhile in the real world they actually go 2:1 to YES
    66:33, tick tock.

    Cuckoo does not begin to describe you
    Malcolm's song;
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l5Wob-H-5uY
    Finally a decent post from you
This discussion has been closed.