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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader

SystemSystem Posts: 12,137
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader to go are starting to look promising

Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted to it happening pre-general election.

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,825
    edited May 2013
    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Phillip Hammond looks like the ideal replacement for Cameron. In his 50s, a career in industry prior to politics and state school educated
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Hammond, May, Hague would all be credible, IMHO, and the first two seem to be angling for the job.

    If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Hammond, May, Hague would all be credible, IMHO, and the first two seem to be angling for the job.

    If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
    Yes, the bounce factor should not be ignored as Brown did. It will never be as good later on.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    surbiton said:

    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Hammond, May, Hague would all be credible, IMHO, and the first two seem to be angling for the job.

    If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
    Yes, the bounce factor should not be ignored as Brown did. It will never be as good later on.
    Right. The complication is that Ed Miliband would have the option of taking over as PM for two years and waiting for the leadership bounce to deflate (or calling an early election off his PM bounce) but the voters wouldn't necessarily be mad keen on a the fag-end of a parliament hanging around like a bad smell.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    surbiton said:

    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Hammond, May, Hague would all be credible, IMHO, and the first two seem to be angling for the job.

    If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
    Yes, the bounce factor should not be ignored as Brown did. It will never be as good later on.
    Right. The complication is that Ed Miliband would have the option of taking over as PM for two years and waiting for the leadership bounce to deflate (or calling an early election off his PM bounce) but the voters wouldn't necessarily be mad keen on a the fag-end of a parliament hanging around like a bad smell.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Six Merton Tory councillors defecting to UKIP.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    What is supposed to be indicated by the relative sizes of the slices in the pie chart in the article? I thought the betting odds were supposed to be an approximate indication of the proportion of people betting on something (i.e. the proportion of money being bet on something), which would mean Cameron 9% (10/1), None 58% (8/11), Nick Clegg 36% (7/4), and Ed Miliband 11% (8/1).... But the actual proportions in the pie chart are more like 35%, 25%, 24% and 21% respectively.

    What am I misunderstanding?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Hammond, May, Hague would all be credible, IMHO, and the first two seem to be angling for the job.

    If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
    Yes, the bounce factor should not be ignored as Brown did. It will never be as good later on.
    Right. The complication is that Ed Miliband would have the option of taking over as PM for two years and waiting for the leadership bounce to deflate (or calling an early election off his PM bounce) but the voters wouldn't necessarily be mad keen on a the fag-end of a parliament hanging around like a bad smell.
    You mean the Queen [ or the LD's ] will not agree to an immediate dissolution of Parliament. The SNP may want an earlier election for their own reasons. Basically, no combination will have enough votes.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Why are Nigel Farage, Nick Griffin and Natalie Bennett not also included in the list? Is it a secret conspiracy by the evil LibLabConTrick to destroy civilisation?
  • JohnLoony said:

    What is supposed to be indicated by the relative sizes of the slices in the pie chart in the article??

    JL - I think the clue is in the three words above the pie chart.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Hammond, May, Hague would all be credible, IMHO, and the first two seem to be angling for the job.

    If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
    Yes, the bounce factor should not be ignored as Brown did. It will never be as good later on.
    Right. The complication is that Ed Miliband would have the option of taking over as PM for two years and waiting for the leadership bounce to deflate (or calling an early election off his PM bounce) but the voters wouldn't necessarily be mad keen on a the fag-end of a parliament hanging around like a bad smell.
    You mean the Queen [ or the LD's ] will not agree to an immediate dissolution of Parliament. The SNP may want an earlier election for their own reasons. Basically, no combination will have enough votes.
    The Queen wouldn't come into it - the situation is simply that if anybody has the votes to form a government they can, and if nobody does there's a new election. So if the Tories said they wanted an election, Miliband + Clegg + SDLP etc could turn them down and go into government instead.

    But whether it was a snap election or a short interval of Lib-Labbery followed by an election, the Tories' chances feel like they'd be better than they are now.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    If the chaos in the tory party continues to deteriorate and get's so bad that backbenchers are about to pull the trigger on Cammie (which is by no means certain) then there is one last roll of the dice that might save Cammie. Finally getting rid of Osbrowne. He is the master strategist that pushed things to this state, not Cammie.

    If Osbrowne goes that also gives a clean slate for another chance to win over all those voters who his omnishambles incompetence drove away. Perhaps with a May or a Hammond who Balls would be in severe trouble against.

    Tory backbenchers are far more ruthless than the other parties in dumping PMs to try and win an election, but this isn't quite like previous times. This is mostly blind panic and animosity rather than cold calculation from the backbenchers. So any moves to unseat Cammie would likely not be as organised and coherent as in the past.

    His removal is unlikely but there still is no end in sight to the squabbling so where this goes nobody knows.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Mick_Pork said:

    If the chaos in the tory party continues to deteriorate and get's so bad that backbenchers are about to pull the trigger on Cammie (which is by no means certain) then there is one last roll of the dice that might save Cammie. Finally getting rid of Osbrowne. He is the master strategist that pushed things to this state, not Cammie.

    If Osbrowne goes that also gives a clean slate for another chance to win over all those voters who his omnishambles incompetence drove away. Perhaps with a May or a Hammond who Balls would be in severe trouble against.

    Tory backbenchers are far more ruthless in dumping leaders to try an win an election than the other parties but this isn't quite like previous times. This is panic and animosity rather than cold calculation from the backbenchers so any moves to unseat Cammie would not be as organised as in the past.

    His removal is unlikely but there still is no end in sight to the squabbling so where this goes nobody knows.

    That would have worked a month ago. If Cameron does it now I think it just makes him look weaker.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    JohnLoony said:

    What is supposed to be indicated by the relative sizes of the slices in the pie chart in the article??

    JL - I think the clue is in the three words above the pie chart.

    "Most Popular Bets"?
    But that doesn't answer the point I was making. If the slice for David Cameron is c.35%, then why are his odds 10/1 instead of 3/2 or 2/1 or 7/4 or whatever?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    If the chaos in the tory party continues to deteriorate and get's so bad that backbenchers are about to pull the trigger on Cammie (which is by no means certain) then there is one last roll of the dice that might save Cammie. Finally getting rid of Osbrowne. He is the master strategist that pushed things to this state, not Cammie.

    If Osbrowne goes that also gives a clean slate for another chance to win over all those voters who his omnishambles incompetence drove away. Perhaps with a May or a Hammond who Balls would be in severe trouble against.

    Tory backbenchers are far more ruthless in dumping leaders to try an win an election than the other parties but this isn't quite like previous times. This is panic and animosity rather than cold calculation from the backbenchers so any moves to unseat Cammie would not be as organised as in the past.

    His removal is unlikely but there still is no end in sight to the squabbling so where this goes nobody knows.

    That would have worked a month ago. If Cameron does it now I think it just makes him look weaker.
    It would have been far more effective a month ago as it would have totally changed the narrative. However, it's not as if Cammie is in any danger of looking like a strong leader at the moment so as a last resort it might satisfy enough backbenchers to get him through to the next election should things keep deteriorating. The reason it's most unlikely is this is still the chumocracy and Osbrowne is his chum.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Phillip Hammond looks like the ideal replacement for Cameron. In his 50s, a career in industry prior to politics and state school educated

    Hhhmmm .... I think not. Poor old Phil is worthy but dull - makes Steve Davis look interesting and might even edge Ed toward the winners enclosure.

    If Cameron fell under, or was pushed under by Peter Bone, a Witney omnibus, then Theresa May or William Hague would pass muster.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    I love the way you talk your book Mike.....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    JackW said:

    Hhhmmm .... I think not. Poor old Phil is worthy but dull - makes Steve Davis look interesting

    No previous tory leaders sprung to mind when you wrote that Jack? Really?
    With all the EU chaos raging on top of talk of replacing a tory PM before an election.

    Boring also means safe pair of hands and compromise candidate to some.
    Little Ed is hardly a raging ball of fiery charisma come to that.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,889
    tim said:

    Will Dave bin Osborne to save himself, or will chum always come before country and party?
    Making May Chancellor and Hammond Home Sec could save him.

    Could Osborne be the UKs next EU commissioner?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tim said:

    Osborne should be sacked for this alone

    mark gregory ‏@MarkGregoryEY 8m
    Boost to housing market will drive inflation - RPI to go over 4% by 2016 according to latest EYITEM forecast http://bit.ly/160CaKa #ITEM

    Leaving aside the poison he spreads and his uselessness as a Master Strategist and Chancellor

    The difficulty with your analyse "tim" is that you believe that Osborne should be sacked for drawing breath !!

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    IanB2 said:

    The lack of an obvious replacement is one reason I wouldn't place this bet. Also leading the Conservative Party is clearly the job from hell, so although there are many eager to criticise, how many will want to step up to the plate - particularly since a win next time looks less and less likely?

    Leading the Tories may be hard/impossible. But assuming the coalition agreement could hold, you would be PM. That has to be attractive.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    The Gay Marriage debate today should be fun.
    Is the PM going to get more than the expected bloodied nose?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    you would be PM. That has to be attractive.

    There is absolutely no danger of senior tories (or any party come to that) suddenly losing interest in becoming leader of their party or indeed PM. You don't get to become a minister or spoken of as a possible future leader through lack of ambition.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mick_Pork said:

    JackW said:

    Hhhmmm .... I think not. Poor old Phil is worthy but dull - makes Steve Davis look interesting

    No previous tory leaders sprung to mind when you wrote that Jack? Really?
    With all the EU chaos raging on top of talk of replacing a tory PM before an election.

    Boring also means safe pair of hands and compromise candidate to some.
    Little Ed is hardly a raging ball of fiery charisma come to that.

    Well clearly John Major always jumps into the frame as a less than wildly entertaining figure but it's oft forgotten than when Major became PM he was seen as the "Brixton Boy" made good, a man for all seasons and Cabinet inclusive leader following on from the Thatcher "One of Us" years.

    Time and Eggwina's rumpy pumpy revealations told a different story.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    RobD said:

    tim said:

    Will Dave bin Osborne to save himself, or will chum always come before country and party?
    Making May Chancellor and Hammond Home Sec could save him.

    Could Osborne be the UKs next EU commissioner?
    Thought that was for Clegg...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,889

    RobD said:

    tim said:

    Will Dave bin Osborne to save himself, or will chum always come before country and party?
    Making May Chancellor and Hammond Home Sec could save him.

    Could Osborne be the UKs next EU commissioner?
    Thought that was for Clegg...
    Payback for boundaries? ;-)

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Mick_Pork said:



    His removal is unlikely but there still is no end in sight to the squabbling so where this goes nobody knows.

    Electoral suicide and another decade on the opposition benches?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tim said:

    Will Dave bin Osborne to save himself, or will chum always come before country and party?
    Making May Chancellor and Hammond Home Sec could save him.

    Could Osborne be the UKs next EU commissioner?
    Thought that was for Clegg...
    Payback for boundaries? ;-)

    The next commissioner will not be a Europhile.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    tim said:

    Will Dave bin Osborne to save himself, or will chum always come before country and party?
    Making May Chancellor and Hammond Home Sec could save him.

    Could Osborne be the UKs next EU commissioner?
    Thought that was for Clegg...
    Payback for boundaries? ;-)

    The next commissioner will not be a Europhile.
    Doesn't the next commissioner require a by-election if it's a sitting MP? Reason enough for that to be delayed for quite some time.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hammond would be a safe pair of hands, and has the feature of being competent, which is the atribute most lacking at the top of the Tories.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tim said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    Osborne should be sacked for this alone

    mark gregory ‏@MarkGregoryEY 8m
    Boost to housing market will drive inflation - RPI to go over 4% by 2016 according to latest EYITEM forecast http://bit.ly/160CaKa #ITEM

    Leaving aside the poison he spreads and his uselessness as a Master Strategist and Chancellor

    The difficulty with your analyse "tim" is that you believe that Osborne should be sacked for drawing breath !!

    He should've been sacked in 2008 when Cameron had to stop him making speeches during the banking crisis, then the Tories would have won a majority.

    And of course he should've been sacked after the Omnishambles.



    But Cameron is all about protecting incompetent chums while detesting 99% of the population.

    tim said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    Osborne should be sacked for this alone

    mark gregory ‏@MarkGregoryEY 8m
    Boost to housing market will drive inflation - RPI to go over 4% by 2016 according to latest EYITEM forecast http://bit.ly/160CaKa #ITEM

    Leaving aside the poison he spreads and his uselessness as a Master Strategist and Chancellor

    The difficulty with your analyse "tim" is that you believe that Osborne should be sacked for drawing breath !!

    He should've been sacked in 2008 when Cameron had to stop him making speeches during the banking crisis, then the Tories would have won a majority.

    And of course he should've been sacked after the Omnishambles.



    But Cameron is all about protecting incompetent chums while detesting 99% of the population.

    Your turgid critisism might carry a wee bit more weight had you been a tad more critical of Labour's "wonderful" stewardship of the economy

    But "tim" you are the broken record of PB -Playing the same dull tune 24/7 :

    We've heard it, We turn a deaf ear to it and we ignore it.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809
    It's not that this group is "hideously white" or that it is old or that it looks like the last but three generation, but is it any wonder that the Cons have difficulties "connecting" with a large part of the electorate?

    image
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    tim said:

    And two more days of debate on gay marriage coming up

    George Osborne last night placed same-sex marriage at the centre of the Tories’ bid to win the next election.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9674065/George-Osborne-gay-marriage-must-be-Tory-policy.html

    He makes the shoe bomber look competent.

    Disastrous timing given the UKIP surge and loon-gate, but it is unquestionably the right thing to do. The dinosaurs will get used to it and see that society does not descend into Sodom and Gomorrah. By the next election it will be a sideshow compared to the real issues.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'll throw this little thoughlet into the PB world of wisdom :

    If Ed continues his progress towards a repeat of the early Michael Foot years, then what Labour marginals will he lose in 2015 ?!?!?

    Titters into full Scottish breakfast ....
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    tim said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    Osborne should be sacked for this alone

    mark gregory ‏@MarkGregoryEY 8m
    Boost to housing market will drive inflation - RPI to go over 4% by 2016 according to latest EYITEM forecast http://bit.ly/160CaKa #ITEM

    Leaving aside the poison he spreads and his uselessness as a Master Strategist and Chancellor

    The difficulty with your analyse "tim" is that you believe that Osborne should be sacked for drawing breath !!

    He should've been sacked in 2008 when Cameron had to stop him making speeches during the banking crisis, then the Tories would have won a majority.

    And of course he should've been sacked after the Omnishambles.



    But Cameron is all about protecting incompetent chums while detesting 99% of the population.

    Tim, Cameron does not detest 99% of the population. He may not care about them much, but I think detest is a strong word. He cares about the people who have left the Tories and voted UKIP, and he certainly cares about that 10% of potential voters which will raise the Tories from 30 to 40% around election time.

  • InMyHumOpInMyHumOp Posts: 16
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-business-we-need-to-stay-in-the-eu--or-risk-losing-up-to-92bn-a-year-8622925.html predictable vested interests with totally made up figures that unsurprisingly used to do such things as run labour rags (the economist) or help Blair do deals with Gaddafi.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809
    Oh, and O/T

    Cameron isn't going anywhere. He is the best the Cons have got and is navigating, not always brilliantly and oftentimes idiotically in troubled waters.

    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    If they got rid of him, which they won't but if they did, and anyone from May to Hammond to Gove (ha! OK, not Gove) then the Cons are back into the wilderness until 2025.

    Deep in their moronic hearts, the rebels know this.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Op, unsurprising the EU-philes are claiming we'll lose fourscore and eleventy billion pounds every year if we leave the EU. Scare-mongering's a great way to avoid more serious debate and place the burden of explaining why that's a bullshit claim on the sceptics, as well as making some cautious people think "It's a risk... maybe we'd better stay in".

    Staggered to read Labour might vote against gay marriage to highlight Conservative splits. I really don't think that'll happen.

    On gaming (following last night's conversation): I found this handy video which runs through some bullet points about what we know of Dragon Age 3: Inquisition right now:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86UMxLIwd2Q

    Surprised but pleased to learn each individual piece of armour will look different on every companion (so you can customise their appearance entirely but they still retain their sense of identity, unlike the restricted DA2 approach or the way Origins had everyone wear the same type of armour and become semi-identical).
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 141
    Things you thought you'd never ever say

    "The Tories get more and more like Labour 1979-83"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Hammond would be a safe pair of hands, and has the feature of being competent, which is the atribute most lacking at the top of the Tories.

    But he's yet another Oxford PPE. Lilley for Leader!

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509
    The striking thing at the moment is the absence of serious government. We underestimate this because we're really interested in all the maneouvres. Who's up? Who's down? How do Tories and LibDems best differentiate themselves? How can the referendum issue be finessed? What deals can be done on gay marriage?

    But in the real world, people regard all this stuff with a mixture of amusement and exasperation, and I'm not sure Cameron can recover from that. When polls show that Miliband is seen as much more in touch than Cameron, I don't think that means that they see him as an ordinary bloke who they'd expect to run into down the pub (and stunts that suggest that are unwise), but that he at least seems primarily interested in the stuff that affects them - health, jobs, education, etc.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2013
    New Labour was a " serious " government , in the sense of serious illness , serious drug addiction , serious drinking habit , or serious crime.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Tories are going to have another bad week. Conservative MPs are staring at the abyss and the question is whether they draw back from it or whether the abyss starts to stare back.

    It's a completely open question right now.

    If the Conservatives can decide to concentrate on the things that matter to the public like the economy (interesting to see that Nick Palmer also overlooks the public's number one concern) rather than the things that matter to them, they can recover. The bigger problem is that there seem to be a substantial number of Conservative MPs who aren't the slightest bit interested in the things that matter to the public.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The striking thing at the moment is the absence of serious government. We underestimate this because we're really interested in all the maneouvres. Who's up? Who's down? How do Tories and LibDems best differentiate themselves? How can the referendum issue be finessed? What deals can be done on gay marriage?

    But in the real world, people regard all this stuff with a mixture of amusement and exasperation, and I'm not sure Cameron can recover from that. When polls show that Miliband is seen as much more in touch than Cameron, I don't think that means that they see him as an ordinary bloke who they'd expect to run into down the pub (and stunts that suggest that are unwise), but that he at least seems primarily interested in the stuff that affects them - health, jobs, education, etc.

    What a lot of cobblers young Nick Palmer.

    All the froth and piss and wind doesn't stop serious government continuing. Perhaps you think the business of the nation stalls whilst Peter Bone issues his latest anti EU encyclical or Mad Nad twitters her latest disloyal dribblings.

    Minsiters are not in thrall to the "more in touch" Miliband. It is afterall difficult to be mesmerized by a void - the leader of a party so enamoured by the public that his mid term lead is vanishing toward diddly squat.

    The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

  • InMyHumOp said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-business-we-need-to-stay-in-the-eu--or-risk-losing-up-to-92bn-a-year-8622925.html predictable vested interests with totally made up figures that unsurprisingly used to do such things as run labour rags (the economist) or help Blair do deals with Gaddafi.

    What Carr, Sorrell, Branson, omit to mention is that back in the late 1990s they were warning of the follies of NOT joining the Euro. These clowns badly need to 1) apologise for that, and then 2) shut up.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Hammond would be a safe pair of hands, and has the feature of being competent, which is the atribute most lacking at the top of the Tories.

    But he's yet another Oxford PPE. Lilley for Leader!

    The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :

    My local MP will never be Prime Minister

  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 141

    The striking thing at the moment is the absence of serious government. We underestimate this because we're really interested in all the maneouvres. Who's up? Who's down? How do Tories and LibDems best differentiate themselves? How can the referendum issue be finessed? What deals can be done on gay marriage?

    But in the real world, people regard all this stuff with a mixture of amusement and exasperation, and I'm not sure Cameron can recover from that. When polls show that Miliband is seen as much more in touch than Cameron, I don't think that means that they see him as an ordinary bloke who they'd expect to run into down the pub (and stunts that suggest that are unwise), but that he at least seems primarily interested in the stuff that affects them - health, jobs, education, etc.

    One reason why people have disconnected from politics is that there has not been enough drama - just administration. Which of course plays into the hands of the political elite - like your good self. At last we have some human drama - the stuff of life.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's amazing - I've not read the news much or seen PB for days and I feel I have missed nothing of note now I've had a peek.

    I can see why the vast majority of the public aren't tuned in this tittle-tattle nonsense - its like listening into the sort of conversations I had with my mates when I was 13yrs old - only we bitched about our classmates, boys and make-up.

    Peter Bone? Nadine? And their ilk ... Jeez.
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    If you're a tory MP, or even a tory councillor, and want a stint in the media, just run down Cameron and flirt with UKIP and you will be front and centre on the BBC until further notice as, firstly, a rebel and, secondly, the tory interviewed along with a Labour MP to give balance.

    End of this week may be the optimum time to back the tories for most seats/overall majority with polling hitting circa 25% which will be as low as it gets. By then gay marriage will be a done deal and Cameron will have done all he can possibly do on Europe and gradually MPs and voters alike will slowly start focussing on the next election and who they want to win.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Plato

    Your 13 year old male classmates wore make-up ?!?

    Hhmmm, how my schooldays now seem so dull !!

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited May 2013
    @Jack

    "The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister."

    You might well be right but as the 109 year old father of the site it's rather disappointing to see you posting something that reads like a cut and paste from Martin Day.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JackW said:

    @Plato

    Your 13 year old male classmates wore make-up ?!?

    Hhmmm, how my schooldays now seem so dull !!

    Girls with blue eyes splashed out on copious sparkly blue eyeliner - us brown eyed girls tended to veer towards far too much kohl - golly, what horrors we looked!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    @Tim.


    ""Staggered to read Labour might vote against gay marriage to highlight Conservative splits. I really don't think that'll happen."

    You patently didnt understand what you were reading"

    I'm away and not listening to any UK news. Has this been raised as a possibility?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    OT After seeing a lot of CSI NY recently - I can't help feeling its actually a giant product placement show for the mnfs of sci white goods/software - is there possibly a market for this that makes it worthwhile?

    I assume its not happening by accident since mnf labels are clearly visible a lot. Makes a change from cereal boxes, car decals and coffee cups...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,693
    On topic, 10/1 was excellent value but Clegg should still be favourite. Cameron won't go anywhere this side of the election. There is no alternative, or at least, no better one while there's no Conservative majority.

    What those who oppose Cameron's liberal Tory agenda will do is continue to vote against the measures as they come forward.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    JackW said:

    The striking thing at the moment is the absence of serious government. We underestimate this because we're really interested in all the maneouvres. Who's up? Who's down? How do Tories and LibDems best differentiate themselves? How can the referendum issue be finessed? What deals can be done on gay marriage?

    But in the real world, people regard all this stuff with a mixture of amusement and exasperation, and I'm not sure Cameron can recover from that. When polls show that Miliband is seen as much more in touch than Cameron, I don't think that means that they see him as an ordinary bloke who they'd expect to run into down the pub (and stunts that suggest that are unwise), but that he at least seems primarily interested in the stuff that affects them - health, jobs, education, etc.

    What a lot of cobblers young Nick Palmer.

    All the froth and piss and wind doesn't stop serious government continuing. Perhaps you think the business of the nation stalls whilst Peter Bone issues his latest anti EU encyclical or Mad Nad twitters her latest disloyal dribblings.

    Minsiters are not in thrall to the "more in touch" Miliband. It is afterall difficult to be mesmerized by a void - the leader of a party so enamoured by the public that his mid term lead is vanishing toward diddly squat.

    The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    I remember flirting with the same sort of complacent thinking in the dog days of the last Labour government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,825
    In the run up to the local election I made the point that, whilst UKIP's base may be predominantly ex-Tory, as its vote rises it hits Labour more and more. It looks as if recent survey data is starting to find evidence that this may be the case - below about recent Survation research, cut and paste from CH:

    "This is compounded by a fascinating analysis of local election data by Survation which shows that the composition of UKIP's voter base is not static, but changes as their level of support rises.

    Up to 16% in the polls, the bulk of their new votes come from Conservatives - but past that point, the majority of their new switchers come from Labour. As the only party to secure over 20% in both South Shields and Eastleigh, it is clear their performance is more complex than simply capturing outrage in Tunbridge Wells (though they perform well there, too)."
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Roger said:

    @Jack

    "The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister."

    You might well be right but as the 109 year old father of the site it's rather disappointing to see you posting something that reads like a cut and paste from Martin Day.

    The artist formerly known as "Martin Day" was far more attached to the destruction of the yellow peril than prospective Labour occupants of 10 Downing Street.

    And IIRC my dear old Roger your enthusiasm for Ed has in the past been somewhat less than fulsome. I mean, really, do you see the nation falling for the "charms and charisma" of Ed when the black pencil is hovering over the ballot paper .... No, I thought not.

    I'm just being brutally honest for the sake of PB Labour supporters. Better it comes from me this early than on election night when it'll be tears before bedtime at 1.30am :

    Recount at Broxtowe ..
    Con GAIN Hampstead ..
    LibDem HOLD Eastleigh ..


  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Plato said:

    OT After seeing a lot of CSI NY recently - I can't help feeling its actually a giant product placement show for the mnfs of sci white goods/software - is there possibly a market for this that makes it worthwhile?

    I assume its not happening by accident since mnf labels are clearly visible a lot. Makes a change from cereal boxes, car decals and coffee cups...

    Is it not just an extension of the "Everybody Owns A Mac" trope?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    JackW said:

    @Plato

    Your 13 year old male classmates wore make-up ?!?

    Hhmmm, how my schooldays now seem so dull !!

    Girls with blue eyes splashed out on copious sparkly blue eyeliner - us brown eyed girls tended to veer towards far too much kohl - golly, what horrors we looked!
    One of the chaps wearing his boater in a slightly jaunty fashion was considered a school scandal and as for having a quick fag ....

    Make your own jokes up there .... er I don't mean "up there"

    Oh bugger !!

    Er no .....

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Plato said:

    OT After seeing a lot of CSI NY recently - I can't help feeling its actually a giant product placement show for the mnfs of sci white goods/software - is there possibly a market for this that makes it worthwhile?

    I assume its not happening by accident since mnf labels are clearly visible a lot. Makes a change from cereal boxes, car decals and coffee cups...

    Is it not just an extension of the "Everybody Owns A Mac" trope?

    The rivalry between Apple and Dell is legendary :^ ) and Range Rovers are very prominent...
  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    TOPPING said:

    If they got rid of him, which they won't but if they did, and anyone from May to Hammond to Gove (ha! OK, not Gove) then the Cons are back into the wilderness until 2025. Deep in their moronic hearts, the rebels know this.

    LOL. Not they don't. The loonies seriously believe that if they replace Cameron with a fiery right-winger they will storm to victory at the subsequent General Election. They are deluded, but that's what they think. That's why they will destroy Cameron and usher in the era of Balls.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    I thought Mervyn King's intervention last week on the "Help to Buy" scheme was quite damning to Osborne and the Tory economic strategy generally.

    Here King laid bare the fact that the Tories are in love with debt too. For all the self serving bluster about the national debt, the Tories are silent on personal indebtedness.

    Propping up the ponzi scheme that is the UK housing market is the classic leitmotif of the drowning chancellor.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @BenM

    "I remember flirting with the same sort of complacent thinking in the dog days of the last Labour government."

    Never in your most wildly complacent stupor did you ever imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, did you ??

    Well quite.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Will Dave bin Osborne to save himself, or will chum always come before country and party?
    Making May Chancellor and Hammond Home Sec could save him.

    Leave May. She'd doing a tolerably good job in a difficult post. Hammond more suitable for CofE anyway.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Social trends query - when was the last time you used a milk jug? I'd forgotten they existed til I saw one on TV.

    As I don't buy milk myself, my focus group of one isn't very helpful.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Roger said:

    @Tim.


    ""Staggered to read Labour might vote against gay marriage to highlight Conservative splits. I really don't think that'll happen."

    You patently didnt understand what you were reading"

    I'm away and not listening to any UK news. Has this been raised as a possibility?

    No. There's a substantial Tory faction pushing an amendment to allow straight couples to enter into civil partnerships [with one another]. Many of this faction appear to be approaching this as a wrecking amendment but it's not clear whether it would have that effect. The 3 reasons that Tory "leadership" are raising for this being a problem are knock on costs to certain pension rights (their figures on that seem to be floating around all over the place); the fact it'll take about 18 months to implement; and that it undermines ideas of strengthening the family.

    I believe that the amendment is additional rather than modificatory - i.e. if the bill passed as amended, you'd have civil partnerships for all and marriage for all - though I've not read the text. Does anyone have it to hand?

    Labour are looking like supporting the amendment, which is an interesting combination of defensible equalities politics and opportunistic mischief making. Either way, it doesn't look likely to improve Cameron's week.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    It's amazing - I've not read the news much or seen PB for days and I feel I have missed nothing of note now I've had a peek.

    I can see why the vast majority of the public aren't tuned in this tittle-tattle nonsense - its like listening into the sort of conversations I had with my mates when I was 13yrs old - only we bitched about our classmates, boys and make-up.

    Peter Bone? Nadine? And their ilk ... Jeez.

    @Plato

    Hush! you will upset Tim and his ilk - don't you realise his life depends on his "wise words" on this 24-hour rubbish about which the electorate take not one bit of notice.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited May 2013
    JackW said:

    @BenM

    "I remember flirting with the same sort of complacent thinking in the dog days of the last Labour government."

    Never in your most wildly complacent stupor did you ever imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, did you ??

    Well quite.

    No, I voted for David.

    However, the subsequent behaviour of DMili's supporters (and most self-styled Blairites) has convinced me he would have been more for the same tired failed rightwing nonsense after this appalling government is put out of its misery.

    If EdM makes it - and the last ten days of highly amusing and long overdue Tory immolation makes it more likely he will - then he will be a breath of fresh air.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Plato said:

    OT Social trends query - when was the last time you used a milk jug? I'd forgotten they existed til I saw one on TV.

    As I don't buy milk myself, my focus group of one isn't very helpful.

    Yesterday (for milk, next to the teapot). Saturday (for sugar syrup for gin cocktails during Eurovision).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Polruan said:

    Plato said:

    OT Social trends query - when was the last time you used a milk jug? I'd forgotten they existed til I saw one on TV.

    As I don't buy milk myself, my focus group of one isn't very helpful.

    Yesterday (for milk, next to the teapot). Saturday (for sugar syrup for gin cocktails during Eurovision).
    Syrup in gin? Golly - not a juniper girl myself if there's another option.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Cameron still the best person to lead the Tories ? Personally I think that he is no longer an asset for the Tories and they would do better with a new leader. If I had a vote in any contest, I would pick William Hague, as I think he could unite the party more than other candidates. But perhaps after being leader previously, Hague would not put his name forward.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    HM Treasury @hmtreasury
    Scottish banking sector as proportion of GDP is larger than Ireland, Iceland and Cyprus bit.ly/10PeSPD #indyref
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Plato said:

    Polruan said:

    Plato said:

    OT Social trends query - when was the last time you used a milk jug? I'd forgotten they existed til I saw one on TV.

    As I don't buy milk myself, my focus group of one isn't very helpful.

    Yesterday (for milk, next to the teapot). Saturday (for sugar syrup for gin cocktails during Eurovision).
    Syrup in gin? Golly - not a juniper girl myself if there's another option.
    Daisy: 3 measures of gin, 1 measure of lemon juice, dash of grenadine and 1 tsp of sugar syrup. Shake over ice til frost forms, pour into tall glass, top up with chilled soda water and garnish with a slice of orange. Tastes of flowers and summer. Due to the prevailing weather conditions we naturally moved on to Caol Ila pretty quickly.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I think Mr Farage may be over-playing his hand here. He's not playing the victim but the opportunist.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217740/that-nigel-farage-telegraph-advert-in-full/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,835
    JackW said:

    @BenM

    "I remember flirting with the same sort of complacent thinking in the dog days of the last Labour government."

    Never in your most wildly complacent stupor did you ever imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, did you ??

    Well quite.

    Good morning all and good morning young Jack. I noted on last night's weather there was a forecast of storm clouds over the Trossachs. I would hate to think of you dodging the lightning with only your trusted niblick for support.

    On topic, a lot of hype and hyperventilation this morning. I'm not a huge fan of OGH's bet unless Cameron suddenly decides to walk away which seems improbable. The folk memory of the events of November 1990 still looms large in the Conservative Party, I suspect, which is why any intervention by the likes of Howe and Heseltine is treated with derision and contempt and the msuings of, for example, Norman Tebbit and Nigel Lawson are treated as almost holy words. The irony is that it was Thatcher's famous or infamous Bruges speech in September 1988 which could be said as having started the Tories on the roads to their current state. I wonder if there will be any kind of "celebration" to mark the occasion this year.

    I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and November 1990 remains a resonant event. The thought of the party doing it again to a Conservative Prime Minister - I just think there would be such an innate reluctance it won't happen.

    As to whether Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister, I wouldn't be so dogmatic as to say no at this point. I'm reminded of Stodge's Sixth Law of Politics - " in politics, you can never have too much good luck but you only need one piece of bad luck to undo everything". Many of those who get to the pinnacle in politics do so less through their own good skills than because of the misfortune of others and you can apply that to Margaret Thatcher, Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, George W. Bush and David Cameron. It may also be true of Ed Miliband.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @stodge

    LOL
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Farage better hope his MEP expense claims are in order and "reasonable".


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
    Compared to what?

    - his original plan? You may have noticed that the economic environment is tougher at the moment thatn expected

    - Darling's "plan"? Was written on the back of a fag packet and would never have been delivered so is not a meaningful basis for comparison.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Polruan said:

    Plato said:

    Polruan said:

    Plato said:

    OT Social trends query - when was the last time you used a milk jug? I'd forgotten they existed til I saw one on TV.

    As I don't buy milk myself, my focus group of one isn't very helpful.

    Yesterday (for milk, next to the teapot). Saturday (for sugar syrup for gin cocktails during Eurovision).
    Syrup in gin? Golly - not a juniper girl myself if there's another option.
    Daisy: 3 measures of gin, 1 measure of lemon juice, dash of grenadine and 1 tsp of sugar syrup. Shake over ice til frost forms, pour into tall glass, top up with chilled soda water and garnish with a slice of orange. Tastes of flowers and summer. Due to the prevailing weather conditions we naturally moved on to Caol Ila pretty quickly.

    That sounds perfectly delightful *makes a mental note* - I'm a Galliano girl myself - during the summer, a bottle of that didn't last long at all...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton
    Odd that Tory MPs oppose gay marriage, which won't undermine marriage, and support heterosexual civil partnerships, which would.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
    Compared to what?

    - his original plan? You may have noticed that the economic environment is tougher at the moment thatn expected

    - Darling's "plan"? Was written on the back of a fag packet and would never have been delivered so is not a meaningful basis for comparison.

    Even more ridiculous for Osborne to have based his 2010 fantasy on a booming Eurozone offsetting domestic austerity then wasn't it.
    And now he's shifted to trying to ramp up house price inflation instead.
    Few people realised how bad it was going to be.

    I suspect he has done a better job than you would have done.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good morning. Nice to see young JackW manning the ramparts with his trebuchets. Today, for ammunition, he is tossing off the odd cliche and Labour head.

    Good to see Farage in top form this morning. Here the Open Letter in full:
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217740/that-nigel-farage-telegraph-advert-in-full/

    However as usual these days, it's not just the letter thats of interest, even more so are the many comments below, supporting UKIP in no uncertain terms.


  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
    Compared to what?

    - his original plan? You may have noticed that the economic environment is tougher at the moment thatn expected

    - Darling's "plan"? Was written on the back of a fag packet and would never have been delivered so is not a meaningful basis for comparison.
    Darling's plan would have been much more successful than Osborne's. Much, much more. It was not an adequate plan by any means. But fag packet or not, it was far superior to Osborne's failed Austerity strategy.

    And worth noting that Darling would have been more sensibly flexible to any shortcoming in that plan.

    You may also have noticed that the economic environment is "toughter" BECAUSE OF Osborne.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The other week I mentioned the much missed TV prog Rough Justice - I noticed that the Mail has highlighted two cases - Jill Dando and the Angel of Death murders over the weekend as possible miscarriages.

    The Mail whatever you think of them do tend to pick their fights quite well when it comes to criminal justice cases.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326656/How-Jill-Dandos-death-convinced-know-crime-wrong-NICK-ROSS-tells-shocking-truth-murder-friend-real-cause-crime.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326712/Is-nurse-serving-30-years-murders-happened-Compelling-new-evidence-suggests-Angel-Death-innocent.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    IanB2 said:

    In the run up to the local election I made the point that, whilst UKIP's base may be predominantly ex-Tory, as its vote rises it hits Labour more and more...

    I believe this is true, but the one point I would make is that there is a level of UKIP support that allows Labour to win a comfortable majority on a risible vote share, but no level of UKIP support that allows the Conservatives to do likewise.

    In that practical sense the rise of UKIP helps Labour in a way it cannot help the Conservatives, regardless of whether switchers to UKIP are predominantly ex-Labour voters once UKIP exceeds 16% in the polls.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
    Compared to what?

    - his original plan? You may have noticed that the economic environment is tougher at the moment thatn expected

    - Darling's "plan"? Was written on the back of a fag packet and would never have been delivered so is not a meaningful basis for comparison.
    Darling's plan would have been much more successful than Osborne's. Much, much more. It was not an adequate plan by any means. But fag packet or not, it was far superior to Osborne's failed Austerity strategy.

    And worth noting that Darling would have been more sensibly flexible to any shortcoming in that plan.

    You may also have noticed that the economic environment is "toughter" BECAUSE OF Osborne.
    No, Darling's lan was basically bullsh1t. It had no details beyond the high level numbers. So flexibility would have been possible because there was nothing set.

    We are not going to agree on this because we have a different philosophical outlook.

    You focus on GDP growth at all costs.

    I look at GDP per capita and net asset growth.

    My fundamental view point is that growth has been dull for two years (although in part due to one time factors). This has enabled the deficit to be reduced by 25% and unemployment to remain at manageable levels.

    The UK economy was hugely unbalanced when Labour left - too much government spending, too much borrowing (both government and personal). The current government has made a reasonable fist of addressing these problems without driving the economy off a cliff and without provoking a market crisis.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    I think Mr Farage may be over-playing his hand here. He's not playing the victim but the opportunist.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217740/that-nigel-farage-telegraph-advert-in-full/

    Morning Plato. I think you are wrong there. The important thing is not the letter as such but the Telegraph advertising and hyping up of it. UKIP could do with all the help it can get; and lo and behold it's getting it from an important newspaper.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yes silly old GO for taking the external economy into account - he should have blindly ignored outside events.

    As for Darling - his temporary VAT cut to stimulate growth - a pathetic consurmerism measure as compared to cutting corp tax and NICs - jobs figures tell there own story on that front.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    MikeK said:

    Plato said:

    I think Mr Farage may be over-playing his hand here. He's not playing the victim but the opportunist.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217740/that-nigel-farage-telegraph-advert-in-full/

    Morning Plato. I think you are wrong there. The important thing is not the letter as such but the Telegraph advertising and hyping up of it. UKIP could do with all the help it can get; and lo and behold it's getting it from an important newspaper.

    Mr K - as a Kipper, I can understand your views on how positive this is for your Party - but the DT is to Kippers what the Mirror is to Labour. No dissent is allowed in the comments. LibLabCon/EUSSR et al... the rest of us who don't post VOTE UKIP!!! under every article aren't in the same camp, annexing the comment section doesn't make it representative of the wider readership.

    The DT is anti-Tory in many areas and to my mind became the Kippergraph a couple or more years ago. It hates Cameron 90% of the time, liberal views, advocates NIMBYism and apes the Catholic Herald. It's a peculiar organ these days.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,889
    TGOHF said:



    As for Darling - his temporary VAT cut to stimulate growth - a pathetic consurmerism measure as compared to cutting corp tax and NICs - jobs figures tell there own story on that front.

    Don't be silly. Good economic news is in spite of the government, bad news is because of it.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
    Compared to what?

    - his original plan? You may have noticed that the economic environment is tougher at the moment thatn expected

    - Darling's "plan"? Was written on the back of a fag packet and would never have been delivered so is not a meaningful basis for comparison.

    Even more ridiculous for Osborne to have based his 2010 fantasy on a booming Eurozone offsetting domestic austerity then wasn't it.
    And now he's shifted to trying to ramp up house price inflation instead.
    Few people realised how bad it was going to be.

    I suspect he has done a better job than you would have done.
    Oh dear, all those school fees well spent with responses like that.

    Hope you kept the receipts.

    I was dumbing it down so you understood.

    It is very easy to criticise with hindsight. That means you are looking today at decisions made 3 years ago and saying they were the wrong decision.

    At the time, few people realised how bad the Eurozone economy was going to be. The politicians have been very good a kicking the can down the road, with the result that the car crash is playing out in slow motion. That absolutely has a drag on confidence, export potential and growth.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,418
    David Cameron will lead the Conservative Party into the next election.

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.

    Bet accordingly.

    Cheerio!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Jason Cowan @jason_manc
    I knew exactly what to expect when I saw the Farage letter - "obsessed with wind farms and gay marriage". Unlike Mr Farage, of course.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,809
    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:



    And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.

    Of course he has.

    It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".

    But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
    Are you saying that if Lab had got in they would have borrowed more or borrowed less?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Eventually the political parties are all going to realise that the only way that the public sector deficit can be curbed is by an across the board wage cut of all public sector workers.

    This would include armed forces, teachers, NHS staff, GP contracts, and local goverment - no exceptions.

    This has the benefit of reducing the wage bill without increasing unemployment.

    The coalition should have done it straight after the last election when most people might have accepted there was a crisis. They are not going to do it between now and the election when people don't realise there is a crisis. But who ever wins the election will find the accumulated public debt has reached a level where the bond market will not allow them to add to it with continued annual deficits.

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