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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader to go are starting to look promising
Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted to it happening pre-general election.
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If I was a Tory MP I'd go for it, if only to stop the bleeding. It's getting hard to see how Cameron wins a majority from here, and Hammond or May might well be able to arrange a snap election and win off the bounce.
What am I misunderstanding?
But whether it was a snap election or a short interval of Lib-Labbery followed by an election, the Tories' chances feel like they'd be better than they are now.
If Osbrowne goes that also gives a clean slate for another chance to win over all those voters who his omnishambles incompetence drove away. Perhaps with a May or a Hammond who Balls would be in severe trouble against.
Tory backbenchers are far more ruthless than the other parties in dumping PMs to try and win an election, but this isn't quite like previous times. This is mostly blind panic and animosity rather than cold calculation from the backbenchers. So any moves to unseat Cammie would likely not be as organised and coherent as in the past.
His removal is unlikely but there still is no end in sight to the squabbling so where this goes nobody knows.
But that doesn't answer the point I was making. If the slice for David Cameron is c.35%, then why are his odds 10/1 instead of 3/2 or 2/1 or 7/4 or whatever?
If Cameron fell under, or was pushed under by Peter Bone, a Witney omnibus, then Theresa May or William Hague would pass muster.
With all the EU chaos raging on top of talk of replacing a tory PM before an election.
Boring also means safe pair of hands and compromise candidate to some.
Little Ed is hardly a raging ball of fiery charisma come to that.
Is the PM going to get more than the expected bloodied nose?
Time and Eggwina's rumpy pumpy revealations told a different story.
But "tim" you are the broken record of PB -Playing the same dull tune 24/7 :
We've heard it, We turn a deaf ear to it and we ignore it.
If Ed continues his progress towards a repeat of the early Michael Foot years, then what Labour marginals will he lose in 2015 ?!?!?
Titters into full Scottish breakfast ....
Cameron isn't going anywhere. He is the best the Cons have got and is navigating, not always brilliantly and oftentimes idiotically in troubled waters.
And GO has played a blinder, yes he has Tim look at the economy and forecast for the economy and, yes: it’s the economy, Stupid.
If they got rid of him, which they won't but if they did, and anyone from May to Hammond to Gove (ha! OK, not Gove) then the Cons are back into the wilderness until 2025.
Deep in their moronic hearts, the rebels know this.
Mr. Op, unsurprising the EU-philes are claiming we'll lose fourscore and eleventy billion pounds every year if we leave the EU. Scare-mongering's a great way to avoid more serious debate and place the burden of explaining why that's a bullshit claim on the sceptics, as well as making some cautious people think "It's a risk... maybe we'd better stay in".
Staggered to read Labour might vote against gay marriage to highlight Conservative splits. I really don't think that'll happen.
On gaming (following last night's conversation): I found this handy video which runs through some bullet points about what we know of Dragon Age 3: Inquisition right now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86UMxLIwd2Q
Surprised but pleased to learn each individual piece of armour will look different on every companion (so you can customise their appearance entirely but they still retain their sense of identity, unlike the restricted DA2 approach or the way Origins had everyone wear the same type of armour and become semi-identical).
"The Tories get more and more like Labour 1979-83"
But in the real world, people regard all this stuff with a mixture of amusement and exasperation, and I'm not sure Cameron can recover from that. When polls show that Miliband is seen as much more in touch than Cameron, I don't think that means that they see him as an ordinary bloke who they'd expect to run into down the pub (and stunts that suggest that are unwise), but that he at least seems primarily interested in the stuff that affects them - health, jobs, education, etc.
It's a completely open question right now.
If the Conservatives can decide to concentrate on the things that matter to the public like the economy (interesting to see that Nick Palmer also overlooks the public's number one concern) rather than the things that matter to them, they can recover. The bigger problem is that there seem to be a substantial number of Conservative MPs who aren't the slightest bit interested in the things that matter to the public.
All the froth and piss and wind doesn't stop serious government continuing. Perhaps you think the business of the nation stalls whilst Peter Bone issues his latest anti EU encyclical or Mad Nad twitters her latest disloyal dribblings.
Minsiters are not in thrall to the "more in touch" Miliband. It is afterall difficult to be mesmerized by a void - the leader of a party so enamoured by the public that his mid term lead is vanishing toward diddly squat.
The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
My local MP will never be Prime Minister
I can see why the vast majority of the public aren't tuned in this tittle-tattle nonsense - its like listening into the sort of conversations I had with my mates when I was 13yrs old - only we bitched about our classmates, boys and make-up.
Peter Bone? Nadine? And their ilk ... Jeez.
End of this week may be the optimum time to back the tories for most seats/overall majority with polling hitting circa 25% which will be as low as it gets. By then gay marriage will be a done deal and Cameron will have done all he can possibly do on Europe and gradually MPs and voters alike will slowly start focussing on the next election and who they want to win.
Your 13 year old male classmates wore make-up ?!?
Hhmmm, how my schooldays now seem so dull !!
"The nation will makes its choice in 2015 and for the sake of clarity, you may have missed my view :
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister."
You might well be right but as the 109 year old father of the site it's rather disappointing to see you posting something that reads like a cut and paste from Martin Day.
""Staggered to read Labour might vote against gay marriage to highlight Conservative splits. I really don't think that'll happen."
You patently didnt understand what you were reading"
I'm away and not listening to any UK news. Has this been raised as a possibility?
I assume its not happening by accident since mnf labels are clearly visible a lot. Makes a change from cereal boxes, car decals and coffee cups...
What those who oppose Cameron's liberal Tory agenda will do is continue to vote against the measures as they come forward.
"This is compounded by a fascinating analysis of local election data by Survation which shows that the composition of UKIP's voter base is not static, but changes as their level of support rises.
Up to 16% in the polls, the bulk of their new votes come from Conservatives - but past that point, the majority of their new switchers come from Labour. As the only party to secure over 20% in both South Shields and Eastleigh, it is clear their performance is more complex than simply capturing outrage in Tunbridge Wells (though they perform well there, too)."
And IIRC my dear old Roger your enthusiasm for Ed has in the past been somewhat less than fulsome. I mean, really, do you see the nation falling for the "charms and charisma" of Ed when the black pencil is hovering over the ballot paper .... No, I thought not.
I'm just being brutally honest for the sake of PB Labour supporters. Better it comes from me this early than on election night when it'll be tears before bedtime at 1.30am :
Recount at Broxtowe ..
Con GAIN Hampstead ..
LibDem HOLD Eastleigh ..
Make your own jokes up there .... er I don't mean "up there"
Oh bugger !!
Er no .....
Here King laid bare the fact that the Tories are in love with debt too. For all the self serving bluster about the national debt, the Tories are silent on personal indebtedness.
Propping up the ponzi scheme that is the UK housing market is the classic leitmotif of the drowning chancellor.
"I remember flirting with the same sort of complacent thinking in the dog days of the last Labour government."
Never in your most wildly complacent stupor did you ever imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, did you ??
Well quite.
As I don't buy milk myself, my focus group of one isn't very helpful.
I believe that the amendment is additional rather than modificatory - i.e. if the bill passed as amended, you'd have civil partnerships for all and marriage for all - though I've not read the text. Does anyone have it to hand?
Labour are looking like supporting the amendment, which is an interesting combination of defensible equalities politics and opportunistic mischief making. Either way, it doesn't look likely to improve Cameron's week.
Hush! you will upset Tim and his ilk - don't you realise his life depends on his "wise words" on this 24-hour rubbish about which the electorate take not one bit of notice.
However, the subsequent behaviour of DMili's supporters (and most self-styled Blairites) has convinced me he would have been more for the same tired failed rightwing nonsense after this appalling government is put out of its misery.
If EdM makes it - and the last ten days of highly amusing and long overdue Tory immolation makes it more likely he will - then he will be a breath of fresh air.
:^ )
Scottish banking sector as proportion of GDP is larger than Ireland, Iceland and Cyprus bit.ly/10PeSPD #indyref
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217740/that-nigel-farage-telegraph-advert-in-full/
On topic, a lot of hype and hyperventilation this morning. I'm not a huge fan of OGH's bet unless Cameron suddenly decides to walk away which seems improbable. The folk memory of the events of November 1990 still looms large in the Conservative Party, I suspect, which is why any intervention by the likes of Howe and Heseltine is treated with derision and contempt and the msuings of, for example, Norman Tebbit and Nigel Lawson are treated as almost holy words. The irony is that it was Thatcher's famous or infamous Bruges speech in September 1988 which could be said as having started the Tories on the roads to their current state. I wonder if there will be any kind of "celebration" to mark the occasion this year.
I've spoken to a few Tories over the years and November 1990 remains a resonant event. The thought of the party doing it again to a Conservative Prime Minister - I just think there would be such an innate reluctance it won't happen.
As to whether Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister, I wouldn't be so dogmatic as to say no at this point. I'm reminded of Stodge's Sixth Law of Politics - " in politics, you can never have too much good luck but you only need one piece of bad luck to undo everything". Many of those who get to the pinnacle in politics do so less through their own good skills than because of the misfortune of others and you can apply that to Margaret Thatcher, Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, George W. Bush and David Cameron. It may also be true of Ed Miliband.
LOL
It's cost £250bn extra borrowing to play this "blinder".
But when you're a blinkered Tory open to easy propaganda, that is cheap.
- his original plan? You may have noticed that the economic environment is tougher at the moment thatn expected
- Darling's "plan"? Was written on the back of a fag packet and would never have been delivered so is not a meaningful basis for comparison.
That sounds perfectly delightful *makes a mental note* - I'm a Galliano girl myself - during the summer, a bottle of that didn't last long at all...
http://twitpic.com/show/thumb/crsmbv.jpg
Odd that Tory MPs oppose gay marriage, which won't undermine marriage, and support heterosexual civil partnerships, which would.
I suspect he has done a better job than you would have done.
Good to see Farage in top form this morning. Here the Open Letter in full:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217740/that-nigel-farage-telegraph-advert-in-full/
However as usual these days, it's not just the letter thats of interest, even more so are the many comments below, supporting UKIP in no uncertain terms.
And worth noting that Darling would have been more sensibly flexible to any shortcoming in that plan.
You may also have noticed that the economic environment is "toughter" BECAUSE OF Osborne.
The Mail whatever you think of them do tend to pick their fights quite well when it comes to criminal justice cases.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326656/How-Jill-Dandos-death-convinced-know-crime-wrong-NICK-ROSS-tells-shocking-truth-murder-friend-real-cause-crime.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326712/Is-nurse-serving-30-years-murders-happened-Compelling-new-evidence-suggests-Angel-Death-innocent.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
In that practical sense the rise of UKIP helps Labour in a way it cannot help the Conservatives, regardless of whether switchers to UKIP are predominantly ex-Labour voters once UKIP exceeds 16% in the polls.
We are not going to agree on this because we have a different philosophical outlook.
You focus on GDP growth at all costs.
I look at GDP per capita and net asset growth.
My fundamental view point is that growth has been dull for two years (although in part due to one time factors). This has enabled the deficit to be reduced by 25% and unemployment to remain at manageable levels.
The UK economy was hugely unbalanced when Labour left - too much government spending, too much borrowing (both government and personal). The current government has made a reasonable fist of addressing these problems without driving the economy off a cliff and without provoking a market crisis.
As for Darling - his temporary VAT cut to stimulate growth - a pathetic consurmerism measure as compared to cutting corp tax and NICs - jobs figures tell there own story on that front.
The DT is anti-Tory in many areas and to my mind became the Kippergraph a couple or more years ago. It hates Cameron 90% of the time, liberal views, advocates NIMBYism and apes the Catholic Herald. It's a peculiar organ these days.
It is very easy to criticise with hindsight. That means you are looking today at decisions made 3 years ago and saying they were the wrong decision.
At the time, few people realised how bad the Eurozone economy was going to be. The politicians have been very good a kicking the can down the road, with the result that the car crash is playing out in slow motion. That absolutely has a drag on confidence, export potential and growth.
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
Bet accordingly.
Cheerio!
I knew exactly what to expect when I saw the Farage letter - "obsessed with wind farms and gay marriage". Unlike Mr Farage, of course.
This would include armed forces, teachers, NHS staff, GP contracts, and local goverment - no exceptions.
This has the benefit of reducing the wage bill without increasing unemployment.
The coalition should have done it straight after the last election when most people might have accepted there was a crisis. They are not going to do it between now and the election when people don't realise there is a crisis. But who ever wins the election will find the accumulated public debt has reached a level where the bond market will not allow them to add to it with continued annual deficits.