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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. Flightpath, he's Middle East peace envoy.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    We have crossover again, the Boris effect?


    Populus @PopulusPolls · 27s
    Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140808

    UKIP up 8% on 2010, and Conservatives unchanged.

    LD > Lab
    Lab > Kipper

    ?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    @TSE

    Kindly stop shouting at us in bold.

    It's in case anyone missed it.
    They only missed it in far outer space.

    Desist please.

    arf.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    I wonder if Salmond is yet prepared to concede that the Nats' "bile bombing" of its opponents has been less than a resounding victory?

    It's strange because I dont think the debate can be seen as a game changer, 'yes' isnt really any less likely to win today than it was last week.

    That's a bit like saying I'm not any less likely to be dating Gillian Anderson than I was last week....
    Start hanging out by the Young Vic on the Cut and you might bump into her and thereby significantly increase your chances!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Neil said:

    Neil said:

    I wonder if Salmond is yet prepared to concede that the Nats' "bile bombing" of its opponents has been less than a resounding victory?

    It's strange because I dont think the debate can be seen as a game changer, 'yes' isnt really any less likely to win today than it was last week.

    That's a bit like saying I'm not any less likely to be dating Gillian Anderson than I was last week....
    Start hanging out by the Young Vic on the Cut and you might bump into her and thereby significantly increase your chances!
    Increase it from no hope to Bob Hope you mean :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    We have crossover again, the Boris effect?


    Populus @PopulusPolls · 27s
    Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140808

    UKIP up 8% on 2010, and Conservatives unchanged.

    LD > Lab
    Lab > Kipper

    ?
    LD -> Labour

    Labour -> UKIP
    Con -> UKIP
    Non Voter -> UKIP

    Labour -> Non voter

    Are the movements
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    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    @TSE

    Kindly stop shouting at us in bold.

    It's in case anyone missed it.
    You seem very excitable this morning, Mr Eagles - you have some work to do in the diplomacy game btw, or you're going to be out of it pdq.
    I will contemplate my moves on Saturday.
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    TGOHF said:

    Sean_F said:

    We have crossover again, the Boris effect?


    Populus @PopulusPolls · 27s
    Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140808

    UKIP up 8% on 2010, and Conservatives unchanged.

    LD > Lab
    Lab > Kipper

    ?
    General trends is

    LD > Lab

    Some LD > Con

    Con > UKIP

    Lab > Kipper

    Lab > Green
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    With that populus poll, amongst the Ladies, the Tories lead 38% to 34%

    Clearly Dave has a man problem, as the Tories trail 35% to 36% amongst the men.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    edited August 2014
    When Monday's poll was relatively poor for Labour (in terms of the Populus Monday poll) I said there was a chance we'd get a crossover on Friday and that has indeed occurred.

    I'm sure we'll get crossback on Monday, though.

    But for now let's all celebrate #CrossOverFriday
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    JackW said:

    Neil said:

    I wonder if Salmond is yet prepared to concede that the Nats' "bile bombing" of its opponents has been less than a resounding victory?

    It's strange because I dont think the debate can be seen as a game changer, 'yes' isnt really any less likely to win today than it was last week.

    The fact that the debate wasn't a game changer for YES is the narrative, coupled with Wee Eck's less than stellar performance and thus YES remains toast and only the scope of the burnt breaded offering is to be determined.

    And that determination will be offered to PB next Tuesday with the final McARSE projection of the campaign.

    I regard the projected month long voluntary obstruction to McARSE's hitherto regular motions as eccentric and potentially hazardous.

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    OGH is such a kill joy for these ever more frequent cross overs...

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    The killer figure for Tories in today's Populus poll is that 24% of 2010 LDs still back LAB. No sign of that fading

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short pic.twitter.com/VjaKSK0yLO

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays
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    GIN1138 said:

    When Monday's poll was relatively poor for Labour (in terms of the Populus Monday poll) I said there was a chance we'd get a crossover on Friday and that has indeed occurred.

    I'm sure we'll get crossback on Monday, though.

    But for now let's all celebrate #CrossOverFriday

    We should have the ICM on Monday, and the last one of those showed the Tories ahead.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    @TSE

    Kindly stop shouting at us in bold.

    It's in case anyone missed it.
    You seem very excitable this morning, Mr Eagles - you have some work to do in the diplomacy game btw, or you're going to be out of it pdq.
    I will contemplate my moves on Saturday.
    A Sunday lie in for Mrs TSE is assured ....

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    OGH is such a kill joy for these ever more frequent cross overs...

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    The killer figure for Tories in today's Populus poll is that 24% of 2010 LDs still back LAB. No sign of that fading

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short pic.twitter.com/VjaKSK0yLO

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays

    Shall I do a thread where I talk how a Tory Majority is possible?

    Say 4% of Kippers move back to the Tories.

    3% of Lab's support peels back to the Lib Dems

    Gives us Con 40, Lab 32, LD 12, UKIP 7, which Baxter'd give us a Tory Maj of 30
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    GIN1138 said:

    When Monday's poll was relatively poor for Labour (in terms of the Populus Monday poll) I said there was a chance we'd get a crossover on Friday and that has indeed occurred.

    I'm sure we'll get crossback on Monday, though.

    But for now let's all celebrate #CrossOverFriday

    We should have the ICM on Monday, and the last one of those showed the Tories ahead.
    4 polls on Monday.... how many will be Tory leads.... I'll say a big 1 at best.
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    GIN1138 said:

    When Monday's poll was relatively poor for Labour (in terms of the Populus Monday poll) I said there was a chance we'd get a crossover on Friday and that has indeed occurred.

    I'm sure we'll get crossback on Monday, though.

    But for now let's all celebrate #CrossOverFriday

    We should have the ICM on Monday, and the last one of those showed the Tories ahead.
    4 polls on Monday.... how many will be Tory leads.... I'll say a big 1 at best.
    I'll go for none.
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    OGH is such a kill joy for these ever more frequent cross overs...

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    The killer figure for Tories in today's Populus poll is that 24% of 2010 LDs still back LAB. No sign of that fading

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short pic.twitter.com/VjaKSK0yLO

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays

    Shall I do a thread where I talk how a Tory Majority is possible?

    Say 4% of Kippers move back to the Tories.

    3% of Lab's support peels back to the Lib Dems

    Gives us Con 40, Lab 32, LD 12, UKIP 7, which Baxter'd give us a Tory Maj of 30
    At least 5 times a week would be about right.
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    GIN1138 said:

    When Monday's poll was relatively poor for Labour (in terms of the Populus Monday poll) I said there was a chance we'd get a crossover on Friday and that has indeed occurred.

    I'm sure we'll get crossback on Monday, though.

    But for now let's all celebrate #CrossOverFriday

    We should have the ICM on Monday, and the last one of those showed the Tories ahead.
    4 polls on Monday.... how many will be Tory leads.... I'll say a big 1 at best.
    I'll go for none.
    Expect the worst, hope for the best - but with ICM and the yoyo Ashcroft, I think 1 isn't being too greedy.
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