Stephen Fisher's latest projection this morning of 2015 GE seats, based on UKPR's current averaging of the polls showing Lab 36% - Con 33% - LibDem 8% - Others - 23% is as follows (with changes compared with last week's projection):
Thanks - given the gradient of his bands he will still have a sizeable error range next Spring.
From what I can see, his methodology seems to heavily include the idea of swing-back, and the magnitude of that (and whether it happens at all) is probably a large source of uncertainty. So as we get closer to the election, and the expected swing-back effect becomes sharper (I assume?), it should start gobbling through uncertainty faster as more
Got a message from a CNN journo last night saying all the US News channels were hastily reading my Yazidi piece, and using it as the basis for their reports which then piled pressure on Obama to act.
So basically I have just saved an entire people from genocide.
I'd also like to nominate this as the most ludicrously hubristic comment in the history of pb. I doubt it can be bettered.
Goes to show that true journalism and true knowledge and experience is worth a 1000 of opinion pieces.
Time for a next SNP leader thread ? Eck is taking a pasting from his own side post the debate shambles ..
Bollocks
Jim Sillars, Dennis Canavan...
Flash, what you don't understand is that YES does not equal SNP, there are several views on many topics around independence. These guys have their views Salmond has his, however they all want a YES vote. Dumb unionist politicians cannot seem to grasp that fact.
So will YES put up someone better for the next debate ?
On the currency union. I can't understand either how they have got into this mess. But I do think it is a bit unfair for everyone to blame Salmond. For a start, Nicola Sturgeon is head of the 'Yes' campaign, and presumably the idea of keeping the pound has had some serious debate within SNP and wider 'yes' groups over the years.
Personally, I don't see the point of having your own country and not having your own currency, or accepting the way most small countries in Europe act and joining the Euro.
I have money on a 'Yes', as I never bet against Salmond, but looks like this time I will be wrong.
They thought they could bluff and bluster their way through it .
I wonder if Sturgeon will take over from Eck - she may be tarred with the same brush of poor campaigning and imminent failure.
Ha Ha Ha , the southern frothers pontificate from their armchairs. The viepoint from a turnip, read above.
This is because it reflects the sovereign will of the Scottish people apparently. Presumably the sovereign will of the English, Irish and Welsh peoples doesn't matter in this discussion.
It all brings to mind Denis Healey's famous aphorism doesn't it?
Iff Scotland votes yes, then Rump UK should have a referendum on a currency union.
I'm fairly certain the polling says Rump UK would say no.
So our sovereign will trump yours Alex, 'cause size matters.
Telegraph thinks it's Salmond trying to throw more weight behind his "this is what's happening, we don't need a plan B" line, Guardian thinks it's a pithy way of saying that plan B is to use the sterling without a currency union.
Honestly I'm not sure whether the vagueness of the slogan is a weakness or a strength
Neither do I.
The thing I can't work out the SNP/Yes got into this situation, on such a fundamental question, it's not like it wasn't obvious Darling was going to bring this up.
Can only conclude that Salmond is delusional and believes what he says will come to pass - or else he is scared stiff of making a change of policy for fear of being seen as weak and indecisive.
Of course people who become very self-deluded and believe in their own grandeur, often end up in the care of people in white coats.
Ha Ha double Ha, an idiot looks in the mirror and thinks he is seeing Alex Salmond and says you are delusional. Go collect you JSA.
'Time for a next SNP leader thread ? Eck is taking a pasting from his own side post the debate shambles ..'
Wee Eck to wee Wreck in less than a week.
Correction;_ He is taking an eck of a pasting from his own side and the media.
I suspect that you are right. Which may be quite a distraction in the last month.
Any links to show this?
NO but they were talking about it on Radio 4 lunchtime news.. Even Malcolm G acknowledged the media was against ECk but it was his own side turning on him that was the discussion point I only caught a minute of it but that was the gist
The media have always been against Salmond. His own side are doing anything but turning against him, that is just pathetic crap. He could have answered one question better I think but there were more that Darling got skewered on. There is no change in YES position as was shown in parliament yesterday. It is Scotland's pound as he says and we will see if Westminster want to keep everything when the time comes. Whoever keeps the pound keeps the debt. Personally we should tell them to keep it.
Mr. G, worth recalling those south of the border are the chaps from whom Salmond and Yes will need agreement if they want a currency union.
I think malc is one of those MI7 plants hired to keep the secret oilfields underwraps. Certainly this sort of "Nat" attitude has contributed significantly to their defeat.
Time for a next SNP leader thread ? Eck is taking a pasting from his own side post the debate shambles ..
Bollocks
Jim Sillars, Dennis Canavan...
Flash, what you don't understand is that YES does not equal SNP, there are several views on many topics around independence. These guys have their views Salmond has his, however they all want a YES vote. Dumb unionist politicians cannot seem to grasp that fact.
So will YES put up someone better for the next debate ?
Why would they need someone better, Darling was just a shouty finger pointing man, he was 100% negative and just said England would punish us. You need to expand your horizons flash, we do not share the metropolitan viewpoint up here. Just as I am amazed that anyone thinks Boris is anything other than a rich buffoon, you boys are all slavering at him being an MP again. You may think that strange.
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
Raman Bhardwaj @STVRaman 8 mins Celtic are back in champions league after Legia Warsaw are booted out for fielding ineligible player. #Celtic
Hmm - my bet on Glasgow's second most successful team "to qualify" from the tie was marked as a loss by betfair - do I have a good case for a payout ?
Doubt it, could be some arbitrage bettors in "middle danger" or alternatively "double win" on this one though...
Was only small stakes but have chanced my arm. Could be a bigger impact for some as the game result has been changed from 0-2 to 3-0 - all because they didn't register a player who played 4 mins as a sub - seems harsh.
Got a message from a CNN journo last night saying all the US News channels were hastily reading my Yazidi piece, and using it as the basis for their reports which then piled pressure on Obama to act.
So basically I have just saved an entire people from genocide.
I'd also like to nominate this as the most ludicrously hubristic comment in the history of pb. I doubt it can be bettered.
Congratulations.
Hah. Ta. I am not serious of course - it wasn't just my blog - there were other reports, and then all those horrific videos - the MP crying etc.
But I did get that message from the CNN woman so I guess my blog was a factor, in raising awareness.
I may have done one small good thing in my mainly sinful life.
Congratulations on changing the course of history.
I'm not saying it will, but in the event that anything bad happens in the middle east from now on it's on you.
The Legia player was banned and that's why he was ineligible - not because he wasn't registered. Nice break for Celtic.
Its not quite that - he had previous 3 match ban - they kept him out for 3 games but the hadn't registered him properly before these 3 games so he is deemed not to have served his ban. And he played 4 mins after it was 6-1 and touched the ball once.
You'd have to be pretty one eyed to suggest it is a proportionate punishment.
Mr. Eagles, yes, but, to be fair, so have most of us.
Speaking for myself, I've not been responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Iraq, for example.
On a more serious note, has Blair's current 'job' ever been mentioned other than to note his absence or take the piss? What's he actually done? I remember him calling for us to get involved in Syria, and I think that's it.
Whilst listening to Today R4 this morning, to a discussion on Putin's food import sanctions and its effect on countries of the EU, I was surprised at his logic. Why should he wish to harm/put into difficulty the life of his own people, rather than turn down the gas taps and make suffer the people of his tormentors?
Of course all dictators rule by subjecting their people to their will and regularly reminding them of that fact and perhaps Putin is stuck in that mode?
Russian agriculture can't compete with US chemical industry / agribusiness so he's using the US sanctions as an excuse for a bit of agricultural protectionism.
Plus US food is pumped full of high fructose corn syrup which is basically poison so it's win-win.
It is also retaliating without escalating. A consistent response, just hope Putin does get baited into invading.
Got a message from a CNN journo last night saying all the US News channels were hastily reading my Yazidi piece, and using it as the basis for their reports which then piled pressure on Obama to act.
So basically I have just saved an entire people from genocide.
I'd also like to nominate this as the most ludicrously hubristic comment in the history of pb. I doubt it can be bettered.
Congratulations.
Hah. Ta. I am not serious of course - it wasn't just my blog - there were other reports, and then all those horrific videos - the MP crying etc.
But I did get that message from the CNN woman so I guess my blog was a factor, in raising awareness.
I may have done one small good thing in my mainly sinful life.
Well done indeed.
ISIS truly is evil incarnate and can be dealt with only in the way a herd of aggressive wild animals would be dealt with which had escaped and gone berserk in central London. I only hope that Obama's and others' response will meet fully the urgency and scope of the need.
One of the enduring and most baleful consequences of the 2003 Iraq disaster is that it has led to a default assumption that the West can do nothing and should do nothing. We need to wake up, fess up to past folly and start with a blank sheet of paper as to how we can contribute to a more civilised world.
Got a message from a CNN journo last night saying all the US News channels were hastily reading my Yazidi piece, and using it as the basis for their reports which then piled pressure on Obama to act.
So basically I have just saved an entire people from genocide.
I'd also like to nominate this as the most ludicrously hubristic comment in the history of pb. I doubt it can be bettered.
Congrats Sean. It was an excellent article (I read with my morning coffee, so you were REALLY honoured - I only share my morning coffee with the best)
Hope you don't become a target for Jihad though...
Got a message from a CNN journo last night saying all the US News channels were hastily reading my Yazidi piece, and using it as the basis for their reports which then piled pressure on Obama to act.
So basically I have just saved an entire people from genocide.
I'd also like to nominate this as the most ludicrously hubristic comment in the history of pb. I doubt it can be bettered.
Congratulations.
Hah. Ta. I am not serious of course - it wasn't just my blog - there were other reports, and then all those horrific videos - the MP crying etc.
But I did get that message from the CNN woman so I guess my blog was a factor, in raising awareness.
I may have done one small good thing in my mainly sinful life.
Well done indeed.
ISIS truly is evil incarnate and can be dealt with only in the way a herd of aggressive wild animals would be dealt with which had escaped and gone berserk in central London. I only hope that Obama's and others' response will meet fully the urgency and scope of the need.
One of the enduring and most baleful consequences of the 2003 Iraq disaster is that it has led to a default assumption that the West can do nothing and should do nothing. We need to wake up, fess up to past folly and start with a blank sheet of paper as to how we can contribute to a more civilised world.
More to the point, the West is quickly going to reach a dilemma.
Is it possible to conduct a just war whilst keeping out hands clean? or do we really want to defeat an enemy, with no morals.
Can we 'do' a proper war ever again, or can we just bomb with our hands behind their backs..
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
rUK should give Scotland the pound and the debt and create a new currency!
The Legia player was banned and that's why he was ineligible - not because he wasn't registered. Nice break for Celtic.
Its not quite that - he had previous 3 match ban - they kept him out for 3 games but the hadn't registered him properly before these 3 games so he is deemed not to have served his ban. And he played 4 mins after it was 6-1 and touched the ball once.
You'd have to be pretty one eyed to suggest it is a proportionate punishment.
It is harsh, especially since the situation was caused by a registration error. Legia can still appeal so good on Ladbrokes for paying out.
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
MD, all the threats emanating from you unionists are just that , hot air. We have that stupid turnip Milliband up here with his new buzz phrase , " alarm bells should be ringing". What an absolute pillock, when wittering on about more powers he was asked to name them and sounded like he had found the bacon butty he lost the other week. That dumpling could not run a bath , he make Cameron look clever and that is saying something.
Mr. G, worth recalling those south of the border are the chaps from whom Salmond and Yes will need agreement if they want a currency union.
MD and worth recalling that up north are the chaps and chapesses who will need to help pay the south's debts, the two are one.
Malcolm, if one of an Independent Scotland's first acts is to default on its historic debts, then wow, the currency markets are going to love you.
Rump UK has already said it will honour all debt obligations, if Scotland doesn't take its share.
So we're fine.
We do not have any debts and it is the UK that has said it will pay the debts , not the RUMP. Big difference, they cannot claim all the assets and share the debts, that is not a default. Markets would welcome a debt free Scotland without any issue, they only care about making money.
PAYING OUT, OUT: We're paying out on all Celtic to qualify pre-match bets, before the tie or after the 1st leg!
That lot makes sense to my mind. Betfair can't make Celtic layers pay up - to act as a pure betting exchange it must act this way. I assume their sportsbook won't pay out on consistency grounds either though, even though they could on that but not on the exchange.
'Time for a next SNP leader thread ? Eck is taking a pasting from his own side post the debate shambles ..'
Wee Eck to wee Wreck in less than a week.
Correction;_ He is taking an eck of a pasting from his own side and the media.
I suspect that you are right. Which may be quite a distraction in the last month.
Any links to show this?
NO but they were talking about it on Radio 4 lunchtime news.. Even Malcolm G acknowledged the media was against ECk but it was his own side turning on him that was the discussion point I only caught a minute of it but that was the gist
The media have always been against Salmond. His own side are doing anything but turning against him, that is just pathetic crap. He could have answered one question better I think but there were more that Darling got skewered on. There is no change in YES position as was shown in parliament yesterday. It is Scotland's pound as he says and we will see if Westminster want to keep everything when the time comes. Whoever keeps the pound keeps the debt. Personally we should tell them to keep it.
Darling did make a couple of unforced errors which haven't been much reported on.
One was his inexplicable reluctance to answer the question of whether Scotland could be a successful independent country- which could easily have been answered along the lines of: "Yes! But, a) it also may not be, and the risks of suffering from problems, even ones which aren't necessarily Scotland's fault are greater (reference back to his point about the UK bailing out RBS) b) I believe that however successful it is, it would be even more successful as a part of the UK"
The other was flourishing some paper "I also brought that transcript!" then not reading from it. Why'd you bring it then?
Having said that, I think the proportion of media focus on Salmond's currency question rather than the above two can be adequately explained by:
-The length of time those questions and poor answers went on for -The audience reaction (booing was very noticeable) -How substantive the points themselves were (the currency thing is a big deal, Darling stuttering over whether Scotland could be successful is not) -Expectations of Salmond being more in his element than Darling
Could there also be an aspect of media bias against Salmond/Yes? Sure, there could. But I think the above reasons would be enough to explain the focus on the currency question even if, hypothetically, there wasn't any bias at all.
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
rUK should give Scotland the pound and the debt and create a new currency!
They are not bright enough to have thought of that.
Has SeanT done more for Middle East Peace process than Tony Blair?
Discuss
That’s up there with differentiating between a Scotsman with a grievience and a ray of sunshine. Has TB actually done anything for the Middle East Peace Process?
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
rUK should give Scotland the pound and the debt and create a new currency!
They are not bright enough to have thought of that.
Malcolm, can you explain to us simple folk, why RumpUK people who will be poorer once Scotland leaves, via the Bank of England, should be the lender of last of resort for an Independent Scotland.
'Time for a next SNP leader thread ? Eck is taking a pasting from his own side post the debate shambles ..'
Wee Eck to wee Wreck in less than a week.
Correction;_ He is taking an eck of a pasting from his own side and the media.
I suspect that you are right. Which may be quite a distraction in the last month.
Any links to show this?
NO but they were talking about it on Radio 4 lunchtime news.. Even Malcolm G acknowledged the media was against ECk but it was his own side turning on him that was the discussion point I only caught a minute of it but that was the gist
The media have always been against Salmond. His own side are doing anything but turning against him, that is just pathetic crap. He could have answered one question better I think but there were more that Darling got skewered on. There is no change in YES position as was shown in parliament yesterday. It is Scotland's pound as he says and we will see if Westminster want to keep everything when the time comes. Whoever keeps the pound keeps the debt. Personally we should tell them to keep it.
Darling did make a couple of unforced errors which haven't been much reported on.
One was his inexplicable reluctance to answer the question of whether Scotland could be a successful independent country- which could easily have been answered along the lines of: "Yes! But, a) it also may not be, and the risks of suffering from problems, even ones which aren't necessarily Scotland's fault are greater (reference back to his point about the UK bailing out RBS) b) I believe that however successful it is, it would be even more successful as a part of the UK"
The other was flourishing some paper "I also brought that transcript!" then not reading from it. Why'd you bring it then?
Having said that, I think the proportion of media focus on Salmond's currency question rather than the above two can be adequately explained by:
-The length of time those questions and poor answers went on for -The audience reaction (booing was very noticeable) -How substantive the points themselves were (the currency thing is a big deal, Darling stuttering over whether Scotland could be successful is not) -Expectations of Salmond being more in his element than Darling
Could there also be an aspect of media bias against Salmond/Yes? Sure, there could. But I think the above reasons would be enough to explain the focus on the currency question even if, hypothetically, there wasn't any bias at all.
Excellent post , I agree that it is strange that Salmond did not close it down earlier.
Has SeanT done more for Middle East Peace process than Tony Blair?
Discuss
That’s up there with differentiating between a Scotsman with a grievience and a ray of sunshine. Has TB actually done anything for the Middle East Peace Process?
I think this Daily Mash article summed it up brilliantly the other day
FORMER prime minister Tony Blair has submitted his CV to the newly-declared Islamic Caliphate in the Middle East.
Already hugely successful in his role as Middle East peace envoy, Blair believes he is perfectly suited to be the unquestioned supreme leader of a new Islamist era.
He said: “In my previous role I was instrumental in creating networks of Islamic extremists in Iraq and Afghanistan using an innovative mix of aerial bombings and ground invasions.
“Feel free to check my references – there are very few jihadis who wouldn’t name Tony Blair and Operation Iraqi Liberation as their direct inspiration.
“And I am already a figure both universally known and universally hated in the West, which is great positioning for ISIS.”
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
rUK should give Scotland the pound and the debt and create a new currency!
They are not bright enough to have thought of that.
Q. Why RumpUK people who will be poorer once Scotland leaves, via the Bank of England, should be the lender of last of resort for an Independent Scotland?
A. Scots for Scotland! Oil! Evil Tories! Bedroom Tax! Food Banks!
PAYING OUT, OUT: We're paying out on all Celtic to qualify pre-match bets, before the tie or after the 1st leg!
That lot makes sense to my mind. Betfair can't make Celtic layers pay up - to act as a pure betting exchange it must act this way. I assume their sportsbook won't pay out on consistency grounds either though, even though they could on that but not on the exchange.
I note they aren't paying out on "in play" Celtic to qualify - wonder if some shrewdies got on when the apparently ineligible player was brought on.
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
Unfortunately you actually can have it both ways.
I don't know enough about the legality of national debt to have a strong opinion on whether or not it's a double standard to say the pound doesn't belong to Scotland but the debt does.
But let's say, hypothetically, that we agree that it -is- a double standard. If Scotland doesn't take on any debt, it's not that they risk being punished by any kind of court, the potential downside for them is that the cost of borrowing might go up. Lenders won't care about what's fair or what's a double standard, and they won't all sit down with the UK government to ensure that the two groups come up with a consistent position.
So unfair as it might be, it's quite possible that Scotland would be hit with the worst of both worlds.
I can't see the separation being other than bitter.
Why? If it was managed in the case of the Free State in the aftermath of a nasty war why would it go all wrong in the case of Scotland? I doubt the Scottish Government will be sending malcolmg down to negotiate (though we could write off the entire national debt by selling the pay-per-view rights if they did).
If Celtic FC had any sense they'd decline re-instatement and advise UEFA that whilst they accepted Legia's error, Celtic considered the punishment completely disproportionate and would not take up a place that any reasonable person would consider they were certainly not entitled to.
There being no honour or sportsmanship in professional football it is certain Celtic FC will grab their discredited place back with avarice.
BBC today spouting Government and BT claptrap on rural broadband: ""Getting fibre to rural areas is hard, and often complex, work, but we are making great progress,"
True if "great progress" means spending £1.2bn to subside BT to extend crappy, copper-wire based broadband to the suburbs and market towns whilst leaving the truly rural with no improvements whatsoever. The Broadband Delivery UK programme in the DCMS is a spending scandal on a par with anything Labour managed in 1997-2010...
Villages like ours are having to get out and dig our own trenches to put in a proper broadband connection... 1GBs download and upload at an average investment per home way below what BT is spending on far easier properties.... and no farm left out no matter how remote it is.
I can't see the separation being other than bitter.
Why? If it was managed in the case of the Free State in the aftermath of a nasty war why would it go all wrong in the case of Scotland? I doubt the Scottish Government will be sending malcolmg down to negotiate (though we could write off the entire national debt by selling the pay-per-view rights if they did).
Bitter is maybe the wrong word, but it should be that rUK politicians should seek the best deal for the rUK if it comes to it. And the same for the Scottish
We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again We have crossover. Again
Aye, no lender of last resort and a de facto default wouldn't be a great start.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
How can you default on what you don't owe, according to you the pound and the pound debt is all yours and we cannot share it. You cannot have it both ways.
The pound is one thing and the debt is another. If the debt is not 'yours' then the gold and convertabble currency reserves and SDRs are not yours either.
I wonder if Salmond is yet prepared to concede that the Nats' "bile bombing" of its opponents has been less than a resounding victory?
I've always thought that the particular character of online SNP activist (particularly those we've been exposed to on pbc) has just been an unfortunate coincidence. I actually really enjoy malcolmg's posts as he frequently makes me burst out laughing. Some of the other SNPers we've had over the years have been much less entertaining. But since the debate there's been something of a meltdown amongst the "cyber nats". Those I see on twitter have taken to blaming MORI for everything (apparently their "undecided" panel was stuffed with better together activits!). It's strange because I dont think the debate can be seen as a game changer, 'yes' isnt really any less likely to win today than it was last week.
Mr. Eagles, yes, but, to be fair, so have most of us.
Speaking for myself, I've not been responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Iraq, for example.
On a more serious note, has Blair's current 'job' ever been mentioned other than to note his absence or take the piss? What's he actually done? I remember him calling for us to get involved in Syria, and I think that's it.
What is Blairs current job? I despise Blair but its best to critcise him for what he is responsible for.
I wonder if Salmond is yet prepared to concede that the Nats' "bile bombing" of its opponents has been less than a resounding victory?
It's strange because I dont think the debate can be seen as a game changer, 'yes' isnt really any less likely to win today than it was last week.
The fact that the debate wasn't a game changer for YES is the narrative, coupled with Wee Eck's less than stellar performance and thus YES remains toast and only the scope of the burnt breaded offering is to be determined.
And that determination will be offered to PB next Tuesday with the final McARSE projection of the campaign.
Mr. G, worth recalling those south of the border are the chaps from whom Salmond and Yes will need agreement if they want a currency union.
I think malc is one of those MI7 plants hired to keep the secret oilfields underwraps. Certainly this sort of "Nat" attitude has contributed significantly to their defeat.
Mr. G, worth recalling those south of the border are the chaps from whom Salmond and Yes will need agreement if they want a currency union.
I think malc is one of those MI7 plants hired to keep the secret oilfields underwraps. Certainly this sort of "Nat" attitude has contributed significantly to their defeat.
It is a salutory warning about what happens when you are 'one-eyed'.
Comments
There is no change in YES position as was shown in parliament yesterday. It is Scotland's pound as he says and we will see if Westminster want to keep everything when the time comes. Whoever keeps the pound keeps the debt.
Personally we should tell them to keep it.
Raman Bhardwaj @STVRaman 8 mins
Celtic are back in champions league after Legia Warsaw are booted out for fielding ineligible player. #Celtic
Just as I am amazed that anyone thinks Boris is anything other than a rich buffoon, you boys are all slavering at him being an MP again. You may think that strange.
Rump UK has already said it will honour all debt obligations, if Scotland doesn't take its share.
So we're fine.
Mr. G, if Scotland started life as an independent country by immediately pissing off the people with whom it has the most bilateral trade and with whom it must negotiate that independence with it would not only be very acrimonious, it wouldn't be clever.
Every politician in 2015 would run on a "we're toughest on the Scots" ticket.
'Why would they need someone better'
Wee Wreck had his chance and blew it live on TV.
WARNING - THIS CARTOON CONTAINS A PICTURE OF ALEX SALMOND'S ARSE
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BugUDK9IYAAngAw.jpg
Neither Celtic nor Legia Warsaw listed
Breaking: Glasgow City Council to fly the UEFA flag over City Chambers.
Lib Dems on 26 seats with 11.8% of the vote.
I think the model somewhat underestimates the efficiency of the rump Lib Dem vote.
You can imagine Paddy Power definitely doing the right thing for an individual punter
I nominate you for POTD (poster of the decade).
I'm not saying it will, but in the event that anything bad happens in the middle east from now on it's on you.
Discuss
You'd have to be pretty one eyed to suggest it is a proportionate punishment.
Speaking for myself, I've not been responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Iraq, for example.
On a more serious note, has Blair's current 'job' ever been mentioned other than to note his absence or take the piss? What's he actually done? I remember him calling for us to get involved in Syria, and I think that's it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/08/04/pat_buchanan_putin_is_in_our_backyard_because_we_are_playing_in_his_backyard.html
Interesting if true, the US will be mad about this.
Also still no more info on the shooting down on the Malaysia airline, the basis of the US escalation of sanctions.
Imagine the FCO career specialist staffing the Yazidi desk for a decade and only fielding odd wrong number. "We have the PM on the line".
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/07/flag-isis-jihadi-islamic-state-flown-poplar-east-london
Well done indeed.
ISIS truly is evil incarnate and can be dealt with only in the way a herd of aggressive wild animals would be dealt with which had escaped and gone berserk in central London. I only hope that Obama's and others' response will meet fully the urgency and scope of the need.
One of the enduring and most baleful consequences of the 2003 Iraq disaster is that it has led to a default assumption that the West can do nothing and should do nothing. We need to wake up, fess up to past folly and start with a blank sheet of paper as to how we can contribute to a more civilised world.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-statement-on-iraq
I am especially concerned for the minority Yazidi community now trapped on Mount Sinjar, where they have fled for their lives.
Hope you don't become a target for Jihad though...
"So basically I have just saved an entire people from genocide."
And tried to keep the media informed and honest. That could be a full time job, though.
Is it possible to conduct a just war whilst keeping out hands clean? or do we really want to defeat an enemy, with no morals.
Can we 'do' a proper war ever again, or can we just bomb with our hands behind their backs..
This man died over flegs:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-28531001
PAYING OUT, OUT: We're paying out on all Celtic to qualify pre-match bets, before the tie or after the 1st leg!
Please be advised that bets on Celtic vs Legia Warsaw will NOT be re-settled. This is in line with the below:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BugU-CXIEAAsUxo.jpg:large
12 Con .. 6 LibDem .. 3 Lab .. 1 DUP Nominated but Crossbencher.
None for UKIP (Incorrectly IMHO)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28703150
One was his inexplicable reluctance to answer the question of whether Scotland could be a successful independent country- which could easily have been answered along the lines of: "Yes! But, a) it also may not be, and the risks of suffering from problems, even ones which aren't necessarily Scotland's fault are greater (reference back to his point about the UK bailing out RBS) b) I believe that however successful it is, it would be even more successful as a part of the UK"
The other was flourishing some paper "I also brought that transcript!" then not reading from it. Why'd you bring it then?
Having said that, I think the proportion of media focus on Salmond's currency question rather than the above two can be adequately explained by:
-The length of time those questions and poor answers went on for
-The audience reaction (booing was very noticeable)
-How substantive the points themselves were (the currency thing is a big deal, Darling stuttering over whether Scotland could be successful is not)
-Expectations of Salmond being more in his element than Darling
Could there also be an aspect of media bias against Salmond/Yes? Sure, there could. But I think the above reasons would be enough to explain the focus on the currency question even if, hypothetically, there wasn't any bias at all.
Has TB actually done anything for the Middle East Peace Process?
FORMER prime minister Tony Blair has submitted his CV to the newly-declared Islamic Caliphate in the Middle East.
Already hugely successful in his role as Middle East peace envoy, Blair believes he is perfectly suited to be the unquestioned supreme leader of a new Islamist era.
He said: “In my previous role I was instrumental in creating networks of Islamic extremists in Iraq and Afghanistan using an innovative mix of aerial bombings and ground invasions.
“Feel free to check my references – there are very few jihadis who wouldn’t name Tony Blair and Operation Iraqi Liberation as their direct inspiration.
“And I am already a figure both universally known and universally hated in the West, which is great positioning for ISIS.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/blair-applies-to-be-caliph-2014070188142
Rinse, repeat.
I don't know enough about the legality of national debt to have a strong opinion on whether or not it's a double standard to say the pound doesn't belong to Scotland but the debt does.
But let's say, hypothetically, that we agree that it -is- a double standard. If Scotland doesn't take on any debt, it's not that they risk being punished by any kind of court, the potential downside for them is that the cost of borrowing might go up. Lenders won't care about what's fair or what's a double standard, and they won't all sit down with the UK government to ensure that the two groups come up with a consistent position.
So unfair as it might be, it's quite possible that Scotland would be hit with the worst of both worlds.
If Scotland attempts to opt out of liabilities there will be a political call for the UK to opt North Britain out of assets.
Whilst pleased No seems to be winning, if Yes does I can't see the separation being other than bitter.
There being no honour or sportsmanship in professional football it is certain Celtic FC will grab their discredited place back with avarice.
BBC today spouting Government and BT claptrap on rural broadband: ""Getting fibre to rural areas is hard, and often complex, work, but we are making great progress,"
True if "great progress" means spending £1.2bn to subside BT to extend crappy, copper-wire based broadband to the suburbs and market towns whilst leaving the truly rural with no improvements whatsoever. The Broadband Delivery UK programme in the DCMS is a spending scandal on a par with anything Labour managed in 1997-2010...
Villages like ours are having to get out and dig our own trenches to put in a proper broadband connection... 1GBs download and upload at an average investment per home way below what BT is spending on far easier properties.... and no farm left out no matter how remote it is.
It actually costs him money to be the Envoy to the Quartet
Populus @PopulusPolls · 27s
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1), Oth 8 (-1). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140808
Kindly stop shouting at us in bold.
BoJo effect? when was the fieldwork done?
Desist please.
I despise Blair but its best to critcise him for what he is responsible for.
And that determination will be offered to PB next Tuesday with the final McARSE projection of the campaign.