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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote
For those like me who love watching political battles the ongoing tussle for the Tory leadership between Boris Johnson and George Osborne will be a pleasure to behold.
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How much of this was caused by Boris, as opposed to inaccuracies in the polling in general?
I remember the pro-longed Mayoral count in 2012 and at one stage there was just a possibility that Ken could squeeze it - something that seemed impossible from the polling.
I think Mike is moonlighting running a yellow cab service in Bedford ....
In short there are some excuses for the fairly ordinary polling forecasts set out above and one data point does not necessarily justify a generality. Boris can undoubtedly reach parts of the electorate that other tories can't. If he couldn't he would not have won in London in the first place.
Firstly he was re-elected as a Conservative against the backdrop of the nadir of the Coalition and secondly this re-election took place in London against a popular former mayor.
Boris may undershoot the polls but he wins in difficult circumstances.
Is Labour quaking in its boots at the thought of Boris? I doubt it.
In fact I doubt that either Party is quaking in its boots at the thought of the next leader of the any of the others. I'm sure Cammo's polling is due to office (and being prevented from doing anything too ridiculous by the Cleggster). It's an almost eerie state of affairs.
Wouldn't be surprised at all if there was - in the land of dull grey suits, Boris and his blond mop certainly sticks out from the crown. - name recognition, counts for a lot imho.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11020539/Barack-Obama-approves-airstrikes-in-Iraq.html
Is SeanT the most influential person in the world? Discuss...
*titters*
Boris was not a notable success when an MP before, and I suspect would be bored by the mundane social work type elements. An outsider dropping in may not endear themselves to the body of MPs who have dealt with the hard grind of constituency work and government. The BOOers and those who want zero immigration would also want to run their own candidate.
It will be a contested election, and the clown prince may not wind up with the crown.
The other night he had that exhausted look of a soldier who knows the battle is lost, but not yet over.
1. Rockets from Gaza again bombarding Israel
2. Anyone know the full results of all the by-elections held yesterday?
Con .......... 303 seats (+4 seats)
Lab .......... 292 seats (- 3 seats)
LibDem ...... 26 seats (- 2 seats)
Others ....... 29 seats (+ 1 seat)
Total ........ 650 seats
- Boris still massively outpolled the Conservatives in the simultaneous GLA elections (admittedly, he was up against Ken rather than generic Labour, but even so).
- Was the polling overstatement due to people voting differently from how they said, from people saying they'd vote Boris and then not voting at all, or just polling methodological error? If people lied, then that at least means Boris had the better public perception against Ken. If it was non-voters, then that implies an even bigger pool of potential Boris supporters existed among the low-turnout groups.
A final thought: even if the polling is wrong, it won't be provably so until long after the leadership election has taken place. If there is a leadership election, the important thing would be not whether the polling is in fact accurate but how much stress Tory MPs and party members place on it.
Whilst listening to Today R4 this morning, to a discussion on Putin's food import sanctions and its effect on countries of the EU, I was surprised at his logic. Why should he wish to harm/put into difficulty the life of his own people, rather than turn down the gas taps and make suffer the people of his tormentors?
Of course all dictators rule by subjecting their people to their will and regularly reminding them of that fact and perhaps Putin is stuck in that mode?
Boris would also only need to make it to the final two for MPs votes to then not matter further, as the electorate then changes to the party membership.
Where Boris would do well is in a "time for a change" atmosphere - the same sort of thing that gave Beppo and his 5 Star movement a surge.
Whilst, the pollsters may have overestimated the Boris lead, they largely got Boris' share of the vote right, and you keep on telling me, to watch the share of the vote, not the lead.
Here's what Boris share of the vote on the first round by the final poll by the pollsters said,
ComRes 45%
Opinium 43%
YouGov 43%
TNS 45%
Populus 46%
Survation 42%
Actual result for Boris was 44%.
So, I'd say the polls were accurate for how people intended to vote for Boris.
3 pollsters under estimated Boris' vote, and 3 overestimated his vote.
http://www.ukpolitical.info/london-mayor-election-2012.htm
If the result was as speculated, the FTPA would still operate effectively. Chances are that if one government lost a vote of confidence, no other one could be formed and so an election would still result.
Given that Fisher's figures must be based on a fairly healthy lead in the popular vote I would like to think that the argument for keeping ever more out of date boundaries would be unsustainable but then I would like to be naïve as I think naïve people have happier lives on the whole.
Many 2010 LDs are simply going home after discovering a LD vote is not a safe anti-Tory vote.
'Time for a next SNP leader thread ? Eck is taking a pasting from his own side post the debate shambles ..'
Wee Eck to wee Wreck in less than a week.
Another variable might be if Labour decides it wants 4-year Parliaments. After all, the Yanks live with a 4-year cycle, and we already have some evidence that Governments (again, of any colour) drift n their fifth year of office.
Surely his projections must largely be based on current polling which for the Lib Dems is truly abysmal. And if he forecasting the Lib Dems losing 31 seats he is not assuming much of a recovery. I would guess something in the region of 12-14%. Present polling reflects that the majority of the departed have gone to Labour so that is also built in.
Where do you think he is going wrong? Do you think that the loyalty of 2010 Lib Dems to Labour simply reduces the scope for the sort of swingback he is assuming? I think there may be something in that but it is difficult to quantify.
Polling expert ennobled by Dave
Oh, it's not OGH but Andrew Cooper
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11020069/David-Cameron-pollster-Andrew-Cooper-and-two-Tory-donors-among-20-new-peers.html
Any links to show this?
Since 8:00, over 18 rockets were fired from Gaza at Israel. 2 were intercepted above Ashkelon, 14 hit open areas & 2 landed in Gaza.
Hamas will continue to provoke Israel until she responds and then cry blue murder. Pathetic but effective to biased MSM.
This is because it reflects the sovereign will of the Scottish people apparently. Presumably the sovereign will of the English, Irish and Welsh peoples doesn't matter in this discussion.
It all brings to mind Denis Healey's famous aphorism doesn't it?
I'm fairly certain the polling says Rump UK would say no.
So our sovereign will trump yours Alex, 'cause size matters.
Plus US food is pumped full of high fructose corn syrup which is basically poison so it's win-win.
Telegraph thinks it's Salmond trying to throw more weight behind his "this is what's happening, we don't need a plan B" line, Guardian thinks it's a pithy way of saying that plan B is to use the sterling without a currency union.
Honestly I'm not sure whether the vagueness of the slogan is a weakness or a strength
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With the high density population of Gaza, and the location of Hamas' rocket sites, it is nigh impossible to avoid consequential civilian casualties.
The thing I can't work out the SNP/Yes got into this situation, on such a fundamental question, it's not like it wasn't obvious Darling was going to bring this up.
I'm more surprised the ceasefire held for its initial period than Hamas deciding to fire rockets rather than extend it.
Glad the media are finally paying some attention to ISIS/Iraq.
A BBC news announcer to a reporter this morning, "Are you sure that it's Hamas that is firing rockets into Israel this morning?" Really such is the pro arab bias in the BBC that it should rename itself ABC, and you know waht the A stands for.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11019890/Scottish-independence-Keeping-pound-without-currency-union-would-see-banks-relocate.html
1) Prefer blatantly evading a question over giving an answer that might make for a damaging soundbite
2) Sling as much dirt as thick and fast as you can at your opponents and hope that some of it sticks
So he refused to answer that obviously important question, and spent all his time on bringing up old out-of-context quotes which weren't particularly damaging. It made the whole Yes campaign look cheap.
Though it wasn't entirely a matter of just misjudging the one event. The "we don't need to talk about plan B" thing has been looking pretty silly for a while. "They're bluffing!" may be a good campaign position to take, but it's not enough for something so important that so clearly needs a serious policy answer.
The capacity common among politicians to believe one's own propaganda and be blind and deaf to objective assessment.
Of course people who become very self-deluded and believe in their own grandeur, often end up in the care of people in white coats.
Good read from @wallaceme: When will the anti-war Left start protesting against ISIS and Assad? Add Hamas to the list http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/08/when-will-the-left-start-protesting-against-assad-or-isis.html …
Personally, I don't see the point of having your own country and not having your own currency, or accepting the way most small countries in Europe act and joining the Euro.
I have money on a 'Yes', as I never bet against Salmond, but looks like this time I will be wrong.
Con: 36.0% (±7.4, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 32.1% (±5.6, i.e. 27% – 38%)
LD: 11.8% (±8.3, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Sorry, I guess I should be doing my own research a bit more.
Looks like the Middle East off to Hell in a hand cart.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2719460/Apocalypse-ignored-As-Gaza-grabs-headlines-epic-slaughter-engulfs-rest-region-But-protests.html
Hmmmm...
Well it would be if you were black and Palestinian....
If you look at the Labour leads have fallen over the last 18 months with a lot of pollsters.
http://electionsetc.com/latest-forecast/
I hope not, given what happened after Obama and the EU won theirs.
I wonder if Sturgeon will take over from Eck - she may be tarred with the same brush of poor campaigning and imminent failure.
Your blog may well have saved some lives.
"At the Estadio Mineirao the Brazilains were booed as they went down 7-1 to Germany. On Tuesday night Salmond was jeered as he couldn’t fend off the reasonable questions from the audience. It must be galling for a nationalist to be booed by an audience of his compatriots.
Maybe for the next debate, Mr Salmond, we can hear a little less about aliens, pandas and rocks melting in the sun. Maybe we could hear a little more about the issues raised with me during my hundred street meetings – things like the pound, pensions and the economy. And while he’s at it, maybe next time the First Minister will listen to the opinions of Scots who do have a vote instead of talking endlessly about a Prime Minister who doesn’t. Just a thought."
http://labourlist.org/2014/08/the-boy-from-banff-played-more-like-brazil-circa-2014-not-1970/
You may even have inspired the Mail - not sure if that is kudos?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2719460/Apocalypse-ignored-As-Gaza-grabs-headlines-epic-slaughter-engulfs-rest-region-But-protests.html
"What is so extraordinary is that the voices protesting so vehemently against Israel’s actions remain resolutely silent over this bloodshed which is on a far greater scale than ever took place in Gaza.
Despite the indignation of so many at Israel’s ruthless display of power, the country has gone to great lengths to prevent civilian casualties by using leaflets, text messages and phone calls in Arabic to warn people to leave targeted buildings.
No such niceties were afforded the hundreds of innocent victims of armed militia groups running rampant in Libya and battling for control of its major cities Tripoli and Benghazi. There were a staggering 1,700 of these groups at the last count.
Yesterday, it emerged that 40,000 members of one of Iraq’s oldest minorities have been stranded for days on a mountain in the north-west of the country without food or water.
These people from the Yazidi sect were driven there by Islamist militant group the Islamic State, formerly ISIS. They now have to choose between slaughter at the hands of the Islamic State jihadists waiting for them below, or death by dehydration if they stay on the mountain.
Where are the protests in the West for action to stop their suffering?"