We shall not publish tonight's YouGov poll until the morning. We intend on including the Greens from now on.
Almost inevitable that the Greens will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election, Ashcroft, like opinium showed the Greens only 2% behind the Yellow Peril
Hm, wonder if other pollsters will follow suit. Might have to update the spreadsheet, although could be confusing if not all pollsters separate out the Greens.
We shall not publish tonight's YouGov poll until the morning. We intend on including the Greens from now on.
Almost inevitable that the Greens will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election, Ashcroft, like opinium showed the Greens only 2% behind the Yellow Peril
Hm, wonder if other pollsters will follow suit. Might have to update the spreadsheet, although could be confusing if not all pollsters separate out the Greens.
How many genuine swing voters are out there I wonder
Since Plato left we're down to zero on pbc.
Although the IQ average has increased.
Hmmm - bitter and mysogonistic - reminiscent of a poster from the past who invariably reserved much venom for Plato.
tim was intelligent, well-informed and funny and didn't like Plato. So that's one thing he shares with "Hugh", who would do well to steer clear of topics like IQ after the great NHS live birth rate debate.
Tim was nasty, vicious and malicious and reduced at least 2 female PBers to tears on the phone to me because of his horrible, very personal attacks on them. He is undoubtedly intelligent and on some subjects very well informed. He also rarely referred to someone without his comment being ill-tempered or deeply insulting.
He was all of that and more.
One of his comments still sticks in my mind years later.
After attacking Plato for ages he offered the following opinion of her
Almost inevitable that the Greens will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election, Ashcroft, like opinium showed the Greens only 2% behind the Yellow Peril
How many genuine swing voters are out there I wonder
Since Plato left we're down to zero on pbc.
Although the IQ average has increased.
Hmmm - bitter and mysogonistic - reminiscent of a poster from the past who invariably reserved much venom for Plato.
tim was intelligent, well-informed and funny and didn't like Plato. So that's one thing he shares with "Hugh", who would do well to steer clear of topics like IQ after the great NHS live birth rate debate.
Tim was nasty, vicious and malicious and reduced at least 2 female PBers to tears on the phone to me because of his horrible, very personal attacks on them. He is undoubtedly intelligent and on some subjects very well informed. He also rarely referred to someone without his comment being ill-tempered or deeply insulting.
He was all of that and more.
One of his comments still sticks in my mind years later.
After attacking Plato for ages he offered the following opinion of her
This Is How Many British Soldiers Died During World War I
Tonight the UK is commemorating the conflict’s 100-year anniversary by turning off its lights at 10pm for one hour to remember the 888,246 British and Colonial soldiers who lost their lives fighting for Britain. Here is one poppy for each of them.
Almost inevitable that the Greens will outpoll the Lib Dems at the next election, Ashcroft, like opinium showed the Greens only 2% behind the Yellow Peril
IMO Stephen Fisher is absolutely right to say the Tories have the best chance of being the largest party. He's also correct to put the Tories' chances of failing to win a majority at about 75%.
Maybe I'd put that slightly higher at about 80%.
With respect, a 25% chance (or even a 20% chance) is not the same as having *quote* virtually no hope of winning a majority *unquote*.
The likes of Dan Byles and Laura Sandys retiring after just one term at the sharp end tells you exactly how Tories in ultra marginals view their prospects of retaining their seats and by extension the Tories gaining a majority next time.
We (the West) promised that there would not be any NATO members on their borders. We also promised that we wouldn't take advantage of their economic weakness in the 1990's - on both promises we have lamentably failed. Russia doesn't trust the West and with good reason - going all the way back to promising them Operation Overlord umpteen times before going through with it on D-day. Any wonder that Russia has a mighty suspicion of anything that the West does.
2014 % % % % % % July 34 37 8 12 9 -3 June 33 37 8 14 9 -4 May 33 36 9 14 8 -3 April 33 37 9 13 6 -4 March 34 38 10 12 6 -4 February 33 39 9 12 7 -6 January 33 39 9 12 7 -6 2013 December 33 39 9 12 7 -6 November 32 39 9 12 7 -7 October 33 39 9 11 7 -6 September 33 38 9 12 8 -5 August 33 39 10 12 7 -6
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
@DaemonBarber The idea is to chill and let it all go by. Or time your journey so that you miss the worst of it. LWB Merc Sprinter twice a week in the city centre teaches you that (or the trip to the coronary department).
I live in Leith and work in Livingston. No choice. Ferry Rd is one seemingly perpetual set of roadworks.
Poor Sod! My sympathies. Used to go along Ferry Road daily. Glad you know your way round Livingstone, last time round I used a GPS map, and still got lost.
How many genuine swing voters are out there I wonder
Since Plato left we're down to zero on pbc.
Although the IQ average has increased.
Hmmm - bitter and mysogonistic - reminiscent of a poster from the past who invariably reserved much venom for Plato.
tim was intelligent, well-informed and funny and didn't like Plato. So that's one thing he shares with "Hugh", who would do well to steer clear of topics like IQ after the great NHS live birth rate debate.
Tim was nasty, vicious and malicious and reduced at least 2 female PBers to tears on the phone to me because of his horrible, very personal attacks on them. He is undoubtedly intelligent and on some subjects very well informed. He also rarely referred to someone without his comment being ill-tempered or deeply insulting.
He was all of that and more.
One of his comments still sticks in my mind years later.
After attacking Plato for ages he offered the following opinion of her
"lonely, vulnerable and not very bright"
Says it all really, what a class act.
Lots of posters here say how insightful he was.
He couldn't work out at what point the higher rate tax band started, which when you are arguing about economics is not a good starting point. He also didn't like it when I challenged him several times about the NHS in Wales.
On the other side we concocted a couple of really good bets on reality TV.
@DaemonBarber The idea is to chill and let it all go by. Or time your journey so that you miss the worst of it. LWB Merc Sprinter twice a week in the city centre teaches you that (or the trip to the coronary department).
I live in Leith and work in Livingston. No choice. Ferry Rd is one seemingly perpetual set of roadworks.
Poor Sod! My sympathies. Used to go along Ferry Road daily. Glad you know your way round Livingstone, last time round I used a GPS map, and still got lost.
I lived in Telford, I'm no stranger to a town that worships the roundabout.
Financier Of course there were also a much higher than average number of spinsters in the 50s and 60s as all their fiancées, boyfriends met or future husbands had died in the Great War.
Short of the English Civil War and the Black Death, I believe WWI was the worst killer in British History
It's interesting that OGH, of all people, has recently taken to including Martin Baxter's current GE forecasts in his threads, which today shows the Lib Dems in line to win only 21 seats. This is right at the bottom of Ladbrokes' 21 - 30 seat band for which they are offering odds of 3/1. Does anyone really expect the Yellows to lose more than half their current seats? I certainly don't, but there are some very tasty betting opportunities around were this to prove to be the case.
Tim was mainly before my time but from what I saw he was sorely missed when he left and meant the very few Lab posters on here were massively outnumbered and the Tory PB view went mostly unchallenged.
It's interesting that OGH, of all people, has recently taken to including Martin Baxter's current GE forecasts in his threads, which today shows the Lib Dems in line to win only 21 seats. This is right at the bottom of Ladbrokes' 21 - 30 seat band for which they are offering odds of 3/1. Does anyone really expect the Yellows to lose more than half their current seats? I certainly don't, but there are some very tasty betting opportunities around were this to prove to be the case.
I find it very hard to be moved by this Great War commemoration. It's just too far away, too distant, everyone who actually knew the war, is dead. There is no personal emotional resonance, even if the history is compelling, horrific and fascinating.
It's like beautiful girlfriends. After they leave you, there is months of heartbreak. Then you wank about them for maybe 8 years (max). But in the end the sexual memory dies, and you wonder why you got so upset, even as you appreciate, again, how beautiful they were.
I suspect I'm quite a bit older than you. The dearth of elderly males was quite obvious when I grew up. When I went to boarding school, an old boy, a survivor of ww1 lived in the headmaster's house.
His reminiscences, plus my father's memories of the time, brought home to me the utter slaughter and wastage of human life. Occasionally you would see a maimed ww1 survivor, and were admonished to "Dont' stare dear. He can't help it. Put some coins in his cup". Even as a kid you knew that a few coins was not even a drop in the ocean of what he had been through.
Our next door neighbor was a survivor of the Burma railway in ww2. He was a very nice man and always good to me, but he had serious stomach problems, and in addition would scream loudly in the middle of the night with nightmares, which I could hear. His wife would come to our house for help.
If you had anything Japanese, a cheap toy car for example, the mask of hatred was visceral - and who could blame him? One learned quickly that Japanese anything was BAD.
Combine that with my trips to Dachau and Auschwitz as an adult and it doesn't take much to realize the full awful meaning of the banal phrase "man's inhumanity to man".
Financier Of course there were also a much higher than average number of spinsters in the 50s and 60s as all their fiancées, boyfriends met or future husbands had died in the Great War.
Short of the English Civil War and the Black Death, I believe WWI was the worst killer in British History
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
PBTories have been praying to swingback crossover fairies for ages, the date keeps getting pushed back.
Others, not least the site's owner, have been pointing to polling that shows it might not be that simple. And usually ignored.
If you think polls are predictions, "will be PM" is the tense to go for. If you think they are counterfactuals, go with "would be".
Oh, and
9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3, if you like extrapolations.
As i say on the basis of all current polls and all polls for last 12 weeks show Ed is crap is PM.
I know you don't like that but it IS a fact. IE EICIPM (EICWBPM or EICWBPM don't know.)
I don't find your long term extrapolation useful. Last four months 3-4 point lead. Means low level of swingback or non existent swingback.
I don't find my long term extrapolation useful either (partly because I haven't done one, just provided data up to the present) but extrapolating a trend makes a lot more sense than saying "as things are now, so will they always be". Polls are not predictions. I think it more likely than not that ed will indeed be PM. I will make money if he is. Your approach just strikes me as depressingly boring in that it implies that nothing politically interesting is going to happen between now and next May.
Tim was mainly before my time but from what I saw he was sorely missed when he left and meant the very few Lab posters on here were massively outnumbered and the Tory PB view went mostly unchallenged.
Still the case to a large extent
Some people clearly just get out more than your standard PBTory, I wouldn't let it bother you.
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
Except for the worse, for the Tories. I want it to at least be very close, but the only thing the Tories seem to have that will work in their favour (given the economy is not, for the now, helping them enough) is that Ed M is not a great asset for Labour, but on its own that is now enough, and the way some talk about him on the right, he can only improve, to their detriment.
@DaemonBarber The idea is to chill and let it all go by. Or time your journey so that you miss the worst of it. LWB Merc Sprinter twice a week in the city centre teaches you that (or the trip to the coronary department).
I live in Leith and work in Livingston. No choice. Ferry Rd is one seemingly perpetual set of roadworks.
Poor Sod! My sympathies. Used to go along Ferry Road daily. Glad you know your way round Livingstone, last time round I used a GPS map, and still got lost.
I lived in Telford, I'm no stranger to a town that worships the roundabout.
And trying to understand the sign posts, even the ones two roundabouts before are madness. Should rename the towns Bedlam. You have to be mad to live there, and you probably are!
PBTories have been praying to swingback crossover fairies for ages, the date keeps getting pushed back.
Where have you been? Crossover happened. It was the poster who so confidently predicted it wouldnt happen before the GE who was left with egg on his (and his squirrel's) face.
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
Except for the worse, for the Tories. I want it to at least be very close, but the only thing the Tories seem to have that will work in their favour (given the economy is not, for the now, helping them enough) is that Ed M is not a great asset for Labour, but on its own that is now enough, and the way some talk about him on the right, he can only improve, to their detriment.
As Mike's pointed out, Ed is an asset to some very important voters.
Great thing about the current political dynamic for Ed is that he can have the Tory artillery, Sun, Mail, Guido, hate him all they like and it doesn't hurt Labour.
@DaemonBarber The idea is to chill and let it all go by. Or time your journey so that you miss the worst of it. LWB Merc Sprinter twice a week in the city centre teaches you that (or the trip to the coronary department).
I live in Leith and work in Livingston. No choice. Ferry Rd is one seemingly perpetual set of roadworks.
Poor Sod! My sympathies. Used to go along Ferry Road daily. Glad you know your way round Livingstone, last time round I used a GPS map, and still got lost.
I lived in Telford, I'm no stranger to a town that worships the roundabout.
And trying to understand the sign posts, even the ones two roundabouts before are madness. Should rename the towns Bedlam. You have to be mad to live there, and you probably are!
Lets be factual here, the Tories need to be in a lead of 6 clear points over Labour to get a majority at Westminster and as it stands, it ain't gonna happen before next May. Any where below 6 points and above 1 will be a hung parliament, If Labour have a 1 point advantage, they win by a small majority - which means that Labour will run for 6 months or so as a "minority" and have another election which they will win by a large majority.
TSE: I think recording and reporting (when possible) on the Greens' share of the vote is a good idea. Were they to gain support between now and the next GE, this is likely to be predominantly at the expense of Labour, since they are the only significant UK party whose policies are to the very left of the political spectrum. Although they are unlikely to win more than 5%-6% of the vote at best, such a level of support might just deprive Labour of a handful of potentially critical seats.
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
Except for the worse, for the Tories. I want it to at least be very close, but the only thing the Tories seem to have that will work in their favour (given the economy is not, for the now, helping them enough) is that Ed M is not a great asset for Labour, but on its own that is now enough, and the way some talk about him on the right, he can only improve, to their detriment.
As Mike's pointed out, Ed is an asset to some very important voters.
Great thing about the current political dynamic for Ed is that he can have the Tory artillery, Sun, Mail, Guido, hate him all they like and it doesn't hurt Labour.
Quite so. I don't really understand why that particular subset of voters likes him as much as they do, he has had some bold moments but is generally underwhelming and has already pulled out the tactic of trying to equate lack of presentational skills with actual ability (as though one cannot have both, so if you have the former you lack the latter), but perhaps they are just so keen to avoid, in their eyes, accidentally letting Cameron in again they are minded to give him the benefit of the doubt., at least in part.
Tim was no tax expert - his Goldsmith tax faux pas made him a total laughing stock for weeks.
Remember him saying that only stupid people would think the new employers NI allowance of £2,000 would be worth, er £2,000... Well, stupid here is £2,000 better off ... Just sad he's not here to remind him...
@DaemonBarber The idea is to chill and let it all go by. Or time your journey so that you miss the worst of it. LWB Merc Sprinter twice a week in the city centre teaches you that (or the trip to the coronary department).
I live in Leith and work in Livingston. No choice. Ferry Rd is one seemingly perpetual set of roadworks.
Poor Sod! My sympathies. Used to go along Ferry Road daily. Glad you know your way round Livingstone, last time round I used a GPS map, and still got lost.
I lived in Telford, I'm no stranger to a town that worships the roundabout.
@DaemonBarber The idea is to chill and let it all go by. Or time your journey so that you miss the worst of it. LWB Merc Sprinter twice a week in the city centre teaches you that (or the trip to the coronary department).
I live in Leith and work in Livingston. No choice. Ferry Rd is one seemingly perpetual set of roadworks.
Poor Sod! My sympathies. Used to go along Ferry Road daily. Glad you know your way round Livingstone, last time round I used a GPS map, and still got lost.
I lived in Telford, I'm no stranger to a town that worships the roundabout.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
'It's weird how of the previously far-fetched-sounding Bin Laden plan is coming off. ' - says edmundintokyo... Bin laden dead - his lieutenants dead, Gadaffi dead, Saddam dead, Assad under siege, military in power in Egypt, muslim brotherhood in jail. Taliban out of power in Afghanistan. Saudi Royal family still in power. Huge numbers of muslims dead, mostly killed by each other. One crack pot sect replacing another as they wipe each other out.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
Tykejohnno Indeed, spectacular. Peter from Putney, with the Greens now beginning to eat into the Labour left and UKIP the Tory right and the LDs nowhere I think we could see the lowest total for the 3 main parties since WW2. A hung parliament is looking increasingly the likely outcome
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
Except for the worse, for the Tories. I want it to at least be very close, but the only thing the Tories seem to have that will work in their favour (given the economy is not, for the now, helping them enough) is that Ed M is not a great asset for Labour, but on its own that is now enough, and the way some talk about him on the right, he can only improve, to their detriment.
As Mike's pointed out, Ed is an asset to some very important voters.
Great thing about the current political dynamic for Ed is that he can have the Tory artillery, Sun, Mail, Guido, hate him all they like and it doesn't hurt Labour.
How many genuine swing voters are out there I wonder
Since Plato left we're down to zero on pbc.
Although the IQ average has increased.
Hmmm - bitter and mysogonistic - reminiscent of a poster from the past who invariably reserved much venom for Plato.
tim was intelligent, well-informed and funny and didn't like Plato. So that's one thing he shares with "Hugh", who would do well to steer clear of topics like IQ after the great NHS live birth rate debate.
Tim was nasty, vicious and malicious and reduced at least 2 female PBers to tears on the phone to me because of his horrible, very personal attacks on them. He is undoubtedly intelligent and on some subjects very well informed. He also rarely referred to someone without his comment being ill-tempered or deeply insulting.
He was all of that and more.
One of his comments still sticks in my mind years later.
After attacking Plato for ages he offered the following opinion of her
"lonely, vulnerable and not very bright"
Says it all really, what a class act.
He was a great advocate of socialism without compassion, the worst possible form.
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
Except for the worse, for the Tories. I want it to at least be very close, but the only thing the Tories seem to have that will work in their favour (given the economy is not, for the now, helping them enough) is that Ed M is not a great asset for Labour, but on its own that is now enough, and the way some talk about him on the right, he can only improve, to their detriment.
As Mike's pointed out, Ed is an asset to some very important voters.
Great thing about the current political dynamic for Ed is that he can have the Tory artillery, Sun, Mail, Guido, hate him all they like and it doesn't hurt Labour.
The WWC does though.
WWC?
People with white skin still support Labour in their millions. As do working class people.
Vastly more than support, oh I dunno, UKIP or the BNP.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
How many genuine swing voters are out there I wonder
Since Plato left we're down to zero on pbc.
Although the IQ average has increased.
Hmmm - bitter and mysogonistic - reminiscent of a poster from the past who invariably reserved much venom for Plato.
tim was intelligent, well-informed and funny and didn't like Plato. So that's one thing he shares with "Hugh", who would do well to steer clear of topics like IQ after the great NHS live birth rate debate.
Tim was nasty, vicious and malicious and reduced at least 2 female PBers to tears on the phone to me because of his horrible, very personal attacks on them. He is undoubtedly intelligent and on some subjects very well informed. He also rarely referred to someone without his comment being ill-tempered or deeply insulting.
He was all of that and more.
One of his comments still sticks in my mind years later.
After attacking Plato for ages he offered the following opinion of her
I know I'm repeating myself but the fact is it'll be almost impossible for the Greens to get more than about 3% if, as expected, they only contest around half the seats.
So the polls putting them on 5-6% are automatically wrong, which means the shares for the other parties won't be right either.
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
Still think autumn is key.
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Yeah time is running out, the Tories are in trouble.
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
Except for the worse, for the Tories. I want it to at least be very close, but the only thing the Tories seem to have that will work in their favour (given the economy is not, for the now, helping them enough) is that Ed M is not a great asset for Labour, but on its own that is now enough, and the way some talk about him on the right, he can only improve, to their detriment.
As Mike's pointed out, Ed is an asset to some very important voters.
Great thing about the current political dynamic for Ed is that he can have the Tory artillery, Sun, Mail, Guido, hate him all they like and it doesn't hurt Labour.
The WWC does though.
WWC?
People with white skin still support Labour in their millions. As do working class people.
Vastly more than support, oh I dunno, UKIP or the BNP.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
Tim "left" because I properly duffed him up.
He was banging on and on about my personal life, photos by me he'd found on Twitter etc, then I Googled and found one or two things about him online (and remember his identity had already been revealed (not by me), and was known to all), and instantly he collapsed and shrank away and quit the site.... apparently never to be seen again.
Rank cowardice. Worthy of Field Punishment Number 1.
In April 2011 Tim had already posted 32,618 comments since June 2005:
Oh god, I come on to get some insight into latest polling, important events of the day (no not nonsense like wreath-gate), and all I see if post after post of Tim hatred / worship. It just so dull now.
There have been plenty of fantastic posters over the years on PB, that have come and gone.
Can we move on (he's still about anyway), and try and discuss interesting events. That is why I visit PB. Bit of banter and poking fun, but really for the info you just don't get anywhere else. Yokel for instance provides far more information in 3-4 paragraphs, than a days worth of watching yabbing bobble heads on BBC or Sky News reporting on the current conflicts.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
But he was happy to use personal stuff against any poster he argued with, yet shriveled away when he received the same treatment. Let's not whitewash the guy. He was fairly unpleasant, weirdly obsessive, and he lost a lot of bets, despite being quite smart and perceptive.
On the good side, he argued well for Labour, and there are few able to do that on pb, despite the fact that Labour are apparently set for victory in 2015. So he is missed thereby.
In a way it is quite telling, the pb lefties should be crowing about their swift return to power, yet they aren't - either because they don't believe they can really win, or because they know that even if they do win, their room for social and economic maneuver will be about zero.
But Sean, you write a column in the Daily Telegraph (ish). You choose not to be anonymous.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
But he was happy to use personal stuff against any poster he argued with, yet shriveled away when he received the same treatment. Let's not whitewash the guy. He was fairly unpleasant, weirdly obsessive, and he lost a lot of bets, despite being quite smart and perceptive.
On the good side, he argued well for Labour, and there are few able to do that on pb, despite the fact that Labour are apparently set for victory in 2015. So he is missed thereby.
In a way it is quite telling, the pb lefties should be crowing about their swift return to power, yet they aren't - either because they don't believe they can really win, or because they know that even if they do win, their room for social and economic maneuver will be about zero.
Nothing to crow about. Labour is not ready. EdM is not up to it. The only real positive is that it would stop the Tories in their tracks and push them into brutal civil war.
As for Tim, he was smart, responded in kind to the abuse he got and did not hide his disdain for a few posters. I called him out on stuff a few times, but I miss his contributions. He wasn't always right, but who is? I am wrong most of the time. Even you have been known to make some bum calls. But if tim's departure means less of certain other posters his self-immolation has been worth it. Though I bet he still lurks ...
Oh god, I come on to get some insight into latest polling, important events of the day (no not nonsense like wreath-gate), and all I see if post after post of Tim hatred / worship. It just so dull now.
There have been plenty of fantastic posters over the years on PB, that have come and gone.
Can we move on (he's still about anyway), and try and discuss interesting events. That is why I visit PB. Bit of banter and poking fun, but really for the info you just don't get anywhere else. Yokel for instance provides far more information in 3-4 paragraphs, than a days worth of watching yabbing bobble heads on BBC or Sky News reporting on the current conflicts.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
Tim "left" because I properly duffed him up.
He was banging on and on about my personal life, photos by me he'd found on Twitter etc, then I Googled and found one or two things about him online (and remember his identity had already been revealed (not by me), and was known to all), and instantly he collapsed and shrank away and quit the site.... apparently never to be seen again.
Rank cowardice. Worthy of Field Punishment Number 1.
In April 2011 Tim had already posted 32,618 comments since June 2005:
A strange land. To many of the people in my town WW1 is ancient history, but hardly an outside light showed, and only one light through the curtains.
We lit some candles and turned off the lights. It was more a case of honouring a past our grandparents lived through, even if they were just kids. Maybe we were really just remembering them.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
Tim "left" because I properly duffed him up.
He was banging on and on about my personal life, photos by me he'd found on Twitter etc, then I Googled and found one or two things about him online (and remember his identity had already been revealed (not by me), and was known to all), and instantly he collapsed and shrank away and quit the site.... apparently never to be seen again.
Rank cowardice. Worthy of Field Punishment Number 1.
In April 2011 Tim had already posted 32,618 comments since June 2005:
A strange land. To many of the people in my town WW1 is ancient history, but hardly an outside light showed, and only one light through the curtains.
We lit some candles and turned off the lights. It was more a case of honouring a past our grandparents lived through, even if they were just kids. Maybe we were really just remembering them.
But the then Foreign Secretary dude's prediction that the lamps "would never come back on in our lifetime" was wrong, thankfully.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
But he was happy to use personal stuff against any poster he argued with, yet shriveled away when he received the same treatment. Let's not whitewash the guy. He was fairly unpleasant, weirdly obsessive, and he lost a lot of bets, despite being quite smart and perceptive.
On the good side, he argued well for Labour, and there are few able to do that on pb, despite the fact that Labour are apparently set for victory in 2015. So he is missed thereby.
In a way it is quite telling, the pb lefties should be crowing about their swift return to power, yet they aren't - either because they don't believe they can really win, or because they know that even if they do win, their room for social and economic maneuver will be about zero.
But Sean, you write a column in the Daily Telegraph (ish). You choose not to be anonymous.
When you attack other posters using personal details (as tim did, time and again) you are opening yourself to similar personal attacks, once your identity has been revealed - as tim's was.
Not my fault tim proved to be a pathetic, hypocritical coward.
Hopefully you are made of sterner stuff.
"once your identity has been revealed"
Maliciously. Against your wishes. On a betting site. By people who are still allowed to post here. Because of your political views.
And some wonder why there aren't more lefties on PB.
@SouthamObserver Great grandparents for the majority of my neighbours, that was what surprised me.
When the future is so uncertain maybe the past becomes more important. I don't remember any of this kind of stuff even 20 years ago. The Queen would attend a service, some soldiers would do a march past and that was that.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
But he was happy to use personal stuff against any poster he argued with, yet shriveled away when he received the same treatment. Let's not whitewash the guy. He was fairly unpleasant, weirdly obsessive, and he lost a lot of bets, despite being quite smart and perceptive.
On the good side, he argued well for Labour, and there are few able to do that on pb, despite the fact that Labour are apparently set for victory in 2015. So he is missed thereby.
In a way it is quite telling, the pb lefties should be crowing about their swift return to power, yet they aren't - either because they don't believe they can really win, or because they know that even if they do win, their room for social and economic maneuver will be about zero.
But Sean, you write a column in the Daily Telegraph (ish). You choose not to be anonymous.
When you attack other posters using personal details (as tim did, time and again) you are opening yourself to similar personal attacks, once your identity has been revealed - as tim's was.
Not my fault tim proved to be a pathetic, hypocritical coward.
Hopefully you are made of sterner stuff.
"once your identity has been revealed"
Maliciously. Against your wishes. On a betting site. By people who are still allowed to post here. Because of your political views.
And some wonder why there aren't more lefties on PB.
Certainly meeting some not very political voters who say "I'll vote Labour or Tory, certainly not LibDem." The brand is severely damaged - most people just don't take it very seriously any more.
But in fairness re 12: Norman Baker didn't say more than most researchers say - they'd like to do without animal testing one day. It was sexed up by bits of the media into implying he wanted to end it almost at once. His more immediate conhtribution, which seems genuine, is to allow publication of research licences (minus names and commercially sensitive stuff - same rules as FOIA) to allow a sensible debate on what should and shouldn't be allowed. Very few people are still arguing for secrecy.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
You seem to have missed all the constant abuse he dished out.
I hope Ed remembers to check his voting slip won't be filled in by someone else prior to the election next year. Otherwise we might have to listen to outrage over 'yet another' Tory stitch up.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
But he was happy to use personal stuff against any poster he argued with, yet shriveled away when he received the same treatment. Let's not whitewash the guy. He was fairly unpleasant, weirdly obsessive, and he lost a lot of bets, despite being quite smart and perceptive.
On the good side, he argued well for Labour, and there are few able to do that on pb, despite the fact that Labour are apparently set for victory in 2015. So he is missed thereby.
In a way it is quite telling, the pb lefties should be crowing about their swift return to power, yet they aren't - either because they don't believe they can really win, or because they know that even if they do win, their room for social and economic maneuver will be about zero.
But Sean, you write a column in the Daily Telegraph (ish). You choose not to be anonymous.
When you attack other posters using personal details (as tim did, time and again) you are opening yourself to similar personal attacks, once your identity has been revealed - as tim's was.
Not my fault tim proved to be a pathetic, hypocritical coward.
Hopefully you are made of sterner stuff.
"once your identity has been revealed"
Maliciously. Against your wishes. On a betting site. By people who are still allowed to post here. Because of your political views.
And some wonder why there aren't more lefties on PB.
It has nothing to do with 'lefties'. It has everything to do with making personal on other posters attacks from the safety of anonymity. It is about cowardice which the person in question showed in abundance. It will be interesting to see if you show the same traits.
Piers Corbyn, possibly the worst meteorologist in the world. Every winter will be the coldest ever, every summer will be a scorcher. He dines out on the one in twenty times he is partially right.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
Tim "left" because I properly duffed him up.
He was banging on and on about my personal life, photos by me he'd found on Twitter etc, then I Googled and found one or two things about him online (and remember his identity had already been revealed (not by me), and was known to all), and instantly he collapsed and shrank away and quit the site.... apparently never to be seen again.
Rank cowardice. Worthy of Field Punishment Number 1.
That's the thing about bullies.
Like dishing it out but really hate to be on the receiving end.
Some posters still obsessed with tim I see. It would be great to have him back, but I guess he just got sick of the constant abuse. Other former posters are missed (by me, at least) much less.
I guess he did, it was hard for him to keep up the abuse..
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
No, I don't know why he left. I just read SeanT's post below, but I was not around when it happened. No poster ever got close to receiving the constant abuse tim got. As I remember it, his personal details - including info about his address and family - were posted on here. Vicious stuff.
Dear god, do you have selective memory like Mr Palmer?
I hope Ed remembers to check his voting slip won't be filled in by someone else prior to the election next year.
Still going on about #wreathgate, I see? How about Clegg? How about Salmond?
They all suck. As I said earlier, if you'd bothered to look. They wanted to show up, get a pretty picture taken showing them pretending to give a crap and sod off to the pub. They didn't bother to find out the etiquette, process or whatever in advance, I.e. They don't give a crap about it and just wanted to look like they were doing their duty.
I hope Ed remembers to check his voting slip won't be filled in by someone else prior to the election next year.
Still going on about #wreathgate, I see? How about Clegg? How about Salmond?
They all suck. As I said earlier, if you'd bothered to look. They wanted to show up, get a pretty picture taken showing them pretending to give a crap and sod off to the pub. They didn't bother to find out the etiquette, process or whatever in advance, I.e. They don't give a crap about it and just wanted to look like they were doing their duty.
Like Louise Mensch on Twitter, you are flogging a dead horse!
@dyedwoolie The notecards were sent to the DMCS, while the wreaths were sent direct. It shouldn't be that hard to find out how the department made the other leaders aware that there was a change from the usual protocol. No doubt all will become clearer at a future date.
@dyedwoolie The notecards were sent to the DMCS, while the wreaths were sent direct. It shouldn't be that hard to find out how the department made the other leaders aware that there was a change from the usual protocol. No doubt all will become clearer at a future date.
They don't care. All they see is a chance for some stupid political points scoring. Whatever the 'truth;' is has not interest to them, all that matters is that this reinforces their perceptions about the individuals concerned. I bow to no one in my dislike for Clegg and Miliband but the whole wreath episode really has been depressingly childish.
@dyedwoolie The notecards were sent to the DMCS, while the wreaths were sent direct. It shouldn't be that hard to find out how the department made the other leaders aware that there was a change from the usual protocol. No doubt all will become clearer at a future date.
They don't care. All they see is a chance for some stupid political points scoring. Whatever the 'truth;' is has not interest to them, all that matters is that this reinforces their perceptions about the individuals concerned. I bow to no one in my dislike for Clegg and Miliband but the whole wreath episode really has been depressingly childish.
Absolutely Mr Tyndall and Dyed Woolie. And then they wonder why we have become so cynical about the political establishment. And with so many career politicians who know nothing other than the Westminster Village, its not surprising that so many of them are so out of touch with reality. It would be mighty funny if it wasn't so serious.
Comments
They should do so, makes life easier.
One of his comments still sticks in my mind years later.
After attacking Plato for ages he offered the following opinion of her
"lonely, vulnerable and not very bright"
Says it all really, what a class act.
Tonight the UK is commemorating the conflict’s 100-year anniversary by turning off its lights at 10pm for one hour to remember the 888,246 British and Colonial soldiers who lost their lives fighting for Britain. Here is one poppy for each of them.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/sirajdatoo/888246-british-soldiers-died-during-world-war-one?utm_content=buffer25b6c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
I know you don't like that but it IS a fact. IE EICIPM (EICWBPM or EICWBPM don't know.)
I don't find your long term extrapolation useful. Last four months 3-4 point lead. Means low level of swingback or non existent swingback.
Interesting military manouevres going on by the Russians very recently - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/04/nato-fears-russia-will-invade-ukraine/
We (the West) promised that there would not be any NATO members on their borders. We also promised that we wouldn't take advantage of their economic weakness in the 1990's - on both promises we have lamentably failed. Russia doesn't trust the West and with good reason - going all the way back to promising them Operation Overlord umpteen times before going through with it on D-day. Any wonder that Russia has a mighty suspicion of anything that the West does.
July 34 37 8 12 9 -3
June 33 37 8 14 9 -4
May 33 36 9 14 8 -3
April 33 37 9 13 6 -4
March 34 38 10 12 6 -4
February 33 39 9 12 7 -6
January 33 39 9 12 7 -6
2013
December 33 39 9 12 7 -6
November 32 39 9 12 7 -7
October 33 39 9 11 7 -6
September 33 38 9 12 8 -5
August 33 39 10 12 7 -6
Extrapolating last 12 months average leads over next 9 months leads me to the conclusion EICIPM come May 2015. Biggest party or outright maj not sure TBH
It could all be over for Cam by Christmas or it could be game on. We'll know soon enough.
Perhaps Tim just didn't like Greek philosophers.
On the other side we concocted a couple of really good bets on reality TV.
Financier Of course there were also a much higher than average number of spinsters in the 50s and 60s as all their fiancées, boyfriends met or future husbands had died in the Great War.
Short of the English Civil War and the Black Death, I believe WWI was the worst killer in British History
This is right at the bottom of Ladbrokes' 21 - 30 seat band for which they are offering odds of 3/1. Does anyone really expect the Yellows to lose more than half their current seats?
I certainly don't, but there are some very tasty betting opportunities around were this to prove to be the case.
Still the case to a large extent
His reminiscences, plus my father's memories of the time, brought home to me the utter slaughter and wastage of human life. Occasionally you would see a maimed ww1 survivor, and were admonished to "Dont' stare dear. He can't help it. Put some coins in his cup". Even as a kid you knew that a few coins was not even a drop in the ocean of what he had been through.
Our next door neighbor was a survivor of the Burma railway in ww2. He was a very nice man and always good to me, but he had serious stomach problems, and in addition would scream loudly in the middle of the night with nightmares, which I could hear. His wife would come to our house for help.
If you had anything Japanese, a cheap toy car for example, the mask of hatred was visceral - and who could blame him? One learned quickly that Japanese anything was BAD.
Combine that with my trips to Dachau and Auschwitz as an adult and it doesn't take much to realize the full awful meaning of the banal phrase "man's inhumanity to man".
But not sure sure what's going to change the game in Autumn.
PBTories have been praying to swingback crossover fairies for ages, the date keeps getting pushed back.
Others, not least the site's owner, have been pointing to polling that shows it might not be that simple. And usually ignored.
And it just goes to show how much our mainstream media has declined, and is lacking in any impartial critical faculties these days.
Plato, they say, could stick it away;
Half a crate of whiskey every day.
Socrates, himself, is particularly missed;
A lovely little thinker but a bugger when he's pissed!
Monty Python - The Philosophers Song Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Great thing about the current political dynamic for Ed is that he can have the Tory artillery, Sun, Mail, Guido, hate him all they like and it doesn't hurt Labour.
Although they are unlikely to win more than 5%-6% of the vote at best, such a level of support might just deprive Labour of a handful of potentially critical seats.
Bin laden dead - his lieutenants dead, Gadaffi dead, Saddam dead, Assad under siege, military in power in Egypt, muslim brotherhood in jail. Taliban out of power in Afghanistan. Saudi Royal family still in power. Huge numbers of muslims dead, mostly killed by each other. One crack pot sect replacing another as they wipe each other out.
It even manages to make their Euro election performance look respectable.
In any event you know why he "left"" so stop playing games.
His occasional witticism did not make up.
I absolutely loathed the Tories in the 90's - but that last Labour government - dear god.
Former GMTV presenter throws her hat into the ring for South Wales set nomination":
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/tvs-fiona-phillips-bids-succeed-7562326
The good news is it should be good for my Scottish bets ^_~
People with white skin still support Labour in their millions. As do working class people.
Vastly more than support, oh I dunno, UKIP or the BNP.
That's worrying. Surely that should be seriously stamped down on by a respectable site like this?
So the polls putting them on 5-6% are automatically wrong, which means the shares for the other parties won't be right either.
If you can't take it don't dish it out.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/04/28/a-guest-slot-from-tim-with-advice-to-the-pm/
There have been plenty of fantastic posters over the years on PB, that have come and gone.
Can we move on (he's still about anyway), and try and discuss interesting events. That is why I visit PB. Bit of banter and poking fun, but really for the info you just don't get anywhere else. Yokel for instance provides far more information in 3-4 paragraphs, than a days worth of watching yabbing bobble heads on BBC or Sky News reporting on the current conflicts.
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11385086.Conservative_candidate_for_General_Election_named/
To many of the people in my town WW1 is ancient history, but hardly an outside light showed, and only one light through the curtains.
As for Tim, he was smart, responded in kind to the abuse he got and did not hide his disdain for a few posters. I called him out on stuff a few times, but I miss his contributions. He wasn't always right, but who is? I am wrong most of the time. Even you have been known to make some bum calls. But if tim's departure means less of certain other posters his self-immolation has been worth it. Though I bet he still lurks ...
Great grandparents for the majority of my neighbours, that was what surprised me.
They flicker on and off somewhere in the world?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11011809/Drunken-vicar-threatened-to-kill-police.html
What a trooper
Maliciously. Against your wishes. On a betting site. By people who are still allowed to post here. Because of your political views.
And some wonder why there aren't more lefties on PB.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=686&c=5
And it won't be due to AGW as many will claim!
State television says vital facility and nearby towns have fallen to Isis in a major blow for Kurds and Baghdad’s Maliki government"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/04/sunni-seize-iraqs-dam-defeat-kurdish
But in fairness re 12: Norman Baker didn't say more than most researchers say - they'd like to do without animal testing one day. It was sexed up by bits of the media into implying he wanted to end it almost at once. His more immediate conhtribution, which seems genuine, is to allow publication of research licences (minus names and commercially sensitive stuff - same rules as FOIA) to allow a sensible debate on what should and shouldn't be allowed. Very few people are still arguing for secrecy.
You really are better than this Southam.
Like dishing it out but really hate to be on the receiving end.
They wanted to show up, get a pretty picture taken showing them pretending to give a crap and sod off to the pub. They didn't bother to find out the etiquette, process or whatever in advance, I.e. They don't give a crap about it and just wanted to look like they were doing their duty.
http://t.co/ZQxKb6HgMG
The notecards were sent to the DMCS, while the wreaths were sent direct.
It shouldn't be that hard to find out how the department made the other leaders aware that there was a change from the usual protocol.
No doubt all will become clearer at a future date.