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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general e
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever
The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity.
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It would be absurd to suggest that RBS would abandon Scotland or simply withdraw from the Scottish market. Of course it won't.
But what will happen is that the group will be registered in England, the tax base will be in England and more of the higher value business will be dealt with south of the border with the consequential loss of head office and better paid jobs north of the border, also impacting on the tax base. Many of the jobs in the Gyle would drift south where the customers actually are.
Within the UK being "Scottish" has generally been an asset from a marketing point of view with overtones of prudence etc. Whether these are deserved is really not the point. What is the point is that this is still within the context of an integrated and regulated UK market.
If Scotland has to set up its own regulators for that part of the business still done in Scotland compliance with this will be an additional cost (as RBS has pointed out) and I fear it would be a marketing weakness since UK regulation (quite bizarrely given the last 7 years) has a strong international reputation giving passports to those who want to trade internationally.
Getting and obtaining staff of the requisite standard to build a credible regulatory system would be very difficult and expensive for Scotland.
All of this is one simple example of the price one would pay from withdrawing from an integrated market of 65m to a home market of 5.3m. Scottish business would no doubt adapt and survive in due course but to pretend that there would not be significant business consequences is just dishonest. When Czechoslovakia broke up trade between the former partners collapsed. Trade is lower than it should be between the US and southern Canada. Borders inhibit trade. It is a fact of life.
Excellent but why, you might ask? Well because the local SNP council had made a complete mess of doing up his kitchen (council house). He demanded I have a look and I did have to admit that the quality of the papering on the ceiling made me look competent at DIY.
He then explained that he had also been banned from the local library and that his doctor was not letting him in the surgery either. By this time I was edging for the door. But we'll take it. One more for the righteous!
I suspect the reason is people betting on what they want to happen, a good formula for losing money.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4163549.ece
His concern was that if Scotland was made independent then he might be treated as "abroad" so that his pension would be frozen and not receive the automatic uplifts. This has happened to some in receipt of old age pensions who have gone abroad but (1) I think this would probably end up getting paid by the Scottish government (2) I am somewhat doubtful that Scotland will be regarded as "abroad" for anyone now alive and (3) I don't think the freezing of entitlement has ever been applied to work related pensions.
What it shows, as more experienced cavassers than me will know all too well, is that the Great British public's perception of the issues is far more varied, wacky and downright perverse than many might think.
LD voters prefer a Coalition with the Tories to Labour by 36% to 26%. UKIP voters prefer a Coalition with the Tories to Labour by 24% to 13%
Labour voters are the most reluctant to enter a Coalition of the big 3, with 27% preferring opposition to a Coalition if they do not win outright compared to only 16% of Tories and 13% of LDs. 39% of UKIP voters also oppose a Coalition.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll
Blimey, I haven't heard that sort of talk for thirty years and then not outside the M25. "Sovs", indeed, quite takes me back.
Your wallpaper guy...
Watched a spot of athletics. The lead runner for the English ladies 4x400m relay team was rather delightful.
Edited extra bit: and just 1 more player needed for the PB 2014 MkIV game of Diplomacy (password: catsandkittens, I think).
A pro-French article in The Times by a Blairite. Not what you might expect everyday, however I've always felt the Blairites had a hint of the good life about them so a soft spot for la France isn't so shocking. Probably still more of the holiday home type rather than full on citizen I would expect. Not with those taxes on the rich.
Also, with Guardians of the Galaxy being surprisingly awesome when it so easily could have been terrible, perhaps everything is looking alright after all.
As for Cameron resigning, I think he could well make that choice - though the outcome is not down to him really, and he didn't set things in motion, he would still be the PM who oversaw the demise of the UK - although apparently he won't do it. If enough of his backbenchers, so close to the GE, can be persuaded it is a good thing, that they can focus on a Tory majority in England alone, he might not even face that much pressure.
What will Darling's reward be if No do win is what I wonder though.
Put yourself in their position. they've lost a lot of councillors. Almost all their MEPs. If they go down to 25MPs, what would they be getting out of a coalition? Not very much in terms of influence (10%?) and just another 5 years of pain.
When you do, I think that will complete your latest 15 day period.
For those not in the loop -- http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
They have been expecting to see some kind of return to form by 2015, a good chance at mid to late teens, but they polls have been so consistently terrible, even getting worse, that many who might once have gifted them the vote on GE day might not see the point any longer, making the worse case scenario more likely. Hell, their stance on civil liberties for one thing has made me inclined to vote for an independent come 2015 rather than vote LD as I often have, not that it matters in a safe Tory seat, and I'm someone who has defended their actions in coalition pretty much all along the way.
So the 15 day period closes with:
Lab +0.06
Con -0.21
LD -0.32
UKIP +0.85
A quite surprising result with UKIP bouncing back after its large fall post Euros.
Not huge Lab / Con movements but clearly disappointing for Con given their need to be making progress.
Even in a hung parliament, I don't see a coalition as inevitable. Something less formal to pass the necessary bits perhaps, but the Tories won't be as keen, the LDs will be caught up in their troubles, and the economy is doing much better, making fears of instability from a minority government less of a concern.
But then I think a Labour majority is all but inevitable, so we shall see.
To be honest Alexander is rather typical of the arrogant elite many Lib Dem grassroots feel have taken over their party. They have plenty of democratic structures in place that the likes of Danny seem blissfully unaware of.
It would be a convenient way of upsetting the Germans, the Scots, the Fascists (allegedly) and @JackW in one easy move
PB Diplomacy IV is now complete.
(please not Austria this time...)
Worth the time.
By the way keep up the good work!
Anyway, I like the Idea of an OM. Although we are probably getting a little ahead of ourselves at this point
40-44% is at 5\2; 45-49%, 7\2. Works out as 31\32.
You can also get about 4/7 (134\185 or 1.58 to be precise) for Yes getting 40%+.
Where can I get lots of money on? Can someone advise? :-)
No will almost certainly win. Better Together has run a crap campaign but the issue of the £85000 bank deposit guarantee can be wheeled out at any time and it will be bye bye Yes.
The Herfindahl index for Scottish retail banking (Lloyds and RBS own around 75%) would make it impossible for the government of an indy Scotland to continue protecting deposits at the current UK (and EU) level. That's something that's comprehensible to many DKs and also to those among the intending Yeses who are aware of more than national pride issues.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/yes-vote-percentage
If they'd left that blog up it would have had *loads* of shares!
Let's say that the Serbs decided to eliminate every last non-Serbian Bosnian from the face of the earth and that they could not in any way be turned from their determination to achieve this. And that they would not accept peace until this was achieved, even if it was to take them many generations.
Let's also say that the west did not have the means or the will to prevent this.
What would be the appropriate response by the Bosnians?
Worth another look. One can serve only one master.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-priorities-2020/poland-italy-nominations-leave-juncker-needing-three-more-commissioners?utm_source=EurActiv+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1f1833e1b4-newsletter_weekly_update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bab5f0ea4e-1f1833e1b4-245514803
Labour to win Hallam 7/2
Tories to win Sherwood - 7/2
Tories to win Lancs/Fleetwood 7/2
Tories to win Lincoln 7/2
Tories to win Halifax 7/2
Tories to win Hampstead/Kilburn 7/2
SNP to win Dundee West 7/2
Tories to win Bolton West 7/2
Whether or not the odds are sensible this gives an idea of the scale of upset required. I'd be pretty concerned if I was the leader of a party who had put the Tories in power whilst representing a city that doesn't have a single Tory councillor.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/social-europe-jobs/eu-relations-be-put-swiss-voters-again-president-says-303845?utm_source=EurActiv+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1f1833e1b4-newsletter_weekly_update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bab5f0ea4e-1f1833e1b4-245514803
It's perfectly possible (and indeed OGH and some others have backed this contingency) that in 2015, the Conservatives will again win most votes but Labour will win most seats.
My personal view is that unless there's clear evidence the current Coalition has been endorsed (which means the LDs holding most of their seats without the Tories winning a majority) it shouldn't be renewed but nor should a similar arrangement be created with Labour (though I doubt Labour will play ball anyway).
I'm in the 13% (according to TMS) who says the LDs should eschew any Coalition in the next parliament but does that mean any level of support (such as S&C) with Labour is ruled out ? In any case, IF the Conservatives and Labour are close on seats, it won't just be the LDs being courted but the Nationalists, Irish MPs and any others - last time there was really only one permutation on offer for stable majority Government - next time there may be no such permutation or one Party will be so close to a majority as to make an alternative bloc unrealistic.
Of course publicly all parties fight alone and fight to win - privately, I'm sure all types of scenario planning will be undertaken in case the result isn't helpful.