Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
You can't declare war on a state you don't recognise.
Regardless the capability doesn't exist to do so, and in realistic terms that means declaring war on Russia, which there is no appetite for.
Cricket on terrestrial TV would be nice. Although I love Sky coverage it means the sport has fallen out of the national consciousness somewhat. It's hard to imagine another Ashes summer like 2005 when cricket ruled the world.
Meanwhile, what price another big last wicket stand at HQ today? England seem to have a problem of late killing teams off.
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Thats the agenda - Russia blew up this plane, and they even have proof! That the "proof" is a Youtube video with a broken timecode and sequences identical to a similar "proof" video released by Kiev last month won't matter.
BTW the tweets referred to the various planes which the rebels have shot down. With short range missiles. We don't have any proof that the rebels have this long range system but we do have proof that Kiev not only does but has them stationed in the area. Then we have the question as to what the plane was doing overflying that area when its normal path always takes it south. Kiev air traffic control was in command - was the flight ordered onto that course?
I'm calling false flag on this one. Like Assad choosing the day the UN weapons inspectors arive in Damascus to attack people with chemical weapons, this stinks.
I'm calling false flag on this one. Like Assad choosing the day the UN weapons inspectors arrive in Damascus to attack people with chemical weapons, this stinks.
Nah, Assad is fine - he's a benign dictator who the west should be helping out "manage" his own state. Our resident Middle-East expert @Luckyguy1983 has told me so.
Cricket on terrestrial TV would be nice. Although I love Sky coverage it means the sport has fallen out of the national consciousness somewhat. It's hard to imagine another Ashes summer like 2005 when cricket ruled the world.
Meanwhile, what price another big last wicket stand at HQ today? England seem to have a problem of late killing teams off.
Cricket is on council telly - channel 5 at 7.15.
When I were a nipper I used to hate the BBC tv coverage - sharing BBC2 when Wimbledon was on, cutting away from the test to show a horse race just as Chris Old was running in to bowl.
TMS is possibly the best thing the BBC do would pay £5 a month for it .
Cricket on terrestrial TV would be nice. Although I love Sky coverage it means the sport has fallen out of the national consciousness somewhat. It's hard to imagine another Ashes summer like 2005 when cricket ruled the world.
Meanwhile, what price another big last wicket stand at HQ today? England seem to have a problem of late killing teams off.
Cricket is on council telly - channel 5 at 7.15.
When I were a nipper I used to hate the BBC tv coverage - sharing BBC2 when Wimbledon was on, cutting away from the test to show a horse race just as Chris Old was running in to bowl.
TMS is possibly the best thing the BBC do would pay £5 a month for it .
-44.29 England +80.73 India +12.62 Draw
Don't think it'll be a draw but the price could yet shorten...
Laid England at odds on earlier this morning, no idea why they were odds on tbh - They are evens now.
Jimmy's last wicket stand killed me in the last game but that was a freakishly flat surface and he doesn't normally get 80 odd...
Mr. Eagles, indeed, on the other hand both incidents have a Defence aspect, so he's probably get a better idea of how things are than if he'd moved from something like Transport.
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Thats the agenda - Russia blew up this plane, and they even have proof! That the "proof" is a Youtube video with a broken timecode and sequences identical to a similar "proof" video released by Kiev last month won't matter.
Ever thought about a job in MI6 in the 1950s ? You could be the 6th man.
Mr. Eagles, indeed, on the other hand both incidents have a Defence aspect, so he's probably get a better idea of how things are than if he'd moved from something like Transport.
Cricket on terrestrial TV would be nice. Although I love Sky coverage it means the sport has fallen out of the national consciousness somewhat. It's hard to imagine another Ashes summer like 2005 when cricket ruled the world.
Meanwhile, what price another big last wicket stand at HQ today? England seem to have a problem of late killing teams off.
Cricket is on council telly - channel 5 at 7.15.
When I were a nipper I used to hate the BBC tv coverage - sharing BBC2 when Wimbledon was on, cutting away from the test to show a horse race just as Chris Old was running in to bowl.
TMS is possibly the best thing the BBC do would pay £5 a month for it .
-44.29 England +80.73 India +12.62 Draw
Don't think it'll be a draw but the price could yet shorten...
Laid England at odds on earlier this morning, no idea why they were odds on tbh - They are evens now.
Jimmy's last wicket stand killed me in the last game but that was a freakishly flat surface and he doesn't normally get 80 odd...
Lay England until India are all out - then lay them more and then back when an early wicket (Cook) is out.
England should look to bat once - the pitch is flattening and drying out.
Hasn't Cameron been criticised for being red of hue and rotund of frame? Hasn't Clegg been criticised for appearing tired, even on the verge of tears (after the European election results)?
This is just bleating, pleading victimisation from a party that excels in attacking others for which school their parents sent them to, or for not being poor enough (despite the niece of the Countess of Longford being Labour's deputy leader).
Hasn't Cameron been criticised for being red of hue and rotund of frame? Hasn't Clegg been criticised for appearing tired, even on the verge of tears (after the European election results)?
This is just bleating, pleading victimisation from a party that excels in attacking others for which school their parents sent them to, or for not being poor enough (despite the niece of the Countess of Longford being Labour's deputy leader).
UKIP are joining them, their deputy leader is moaning that all the Education Ministers are privately educated.
Yes, the party that's current leader and previous leader are both privately educated, one of whom is an Old Etonian.
View to see the +ves and -ves (latter includes Ed Balls at No.26), whilst his wife is at No 2. Also a list of those who are ranked neutral - people not being +ve or -ve about them.
A truly spectacular thunderstorm last night over Wiltshire, no rain at all, so watched it pass overhead while sat in the garden until after midnight - I don’t think I’ve seen the like in many a year. - Good luck to all those attempting to capture it on film.
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Oh dear, Socrates.
You really should do more research before firing off your battery of prejudices. An innocent might get hurt (although if it is an Innocent Abroad few might worry).
Take note of the fact that none of the leading Western leaders are yet apportioning blame for the downing of the Malaysian airline. The reason for this is simple: it is not yet known for certain who did it and how.
All we have at the moment is a propaganda battle, the latest salvo of which comes from Moscow:
MOSCOW, July 18, /ITAR-TASS/. Two Ukrainian fighters were following the passenger Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines several minutes before the crash, Russia’s television Channel One said on Friday, citing a tweet made a Spanish air traffic controller of Kiev’s airport Borispol.
According to the Spanish air traffic controller, two Ukrainian fighters had been seen near the Malaysian jet three minutes before it disappeared from radars.
This information is confirmed by eyewitnesses in the Donetsk region who saw Ukrainian warplanes near the passenger jet. They say they heard sounds of powerful blasts and saw a Ukraine warplane shortly before the crash.
So it is an unconfirmed sighting of fighter jets versus a deleted tweet.
View to see the +ves and -ves (latter includes Ed Balls at No.26), whilst his wife is at No 2. Also a list of those who are ranked neutral - people not being +ve or -ve about them.
Do they not take numbers for the leader or are they too scared to publish ?
Burnham at no 1 - he should run for leader next June..
View to see the +ves and -ves (latter includes Ed Balls at No.26), whilst his wife is at No 2. Also a list of those who are ranked neutral - people not being +ve or -ve about them.
Do they not take numbers for the leader or are they too scared to publish ?
Burnham at no 1 - he should run for leader next June..
EdM was not one of the options when I saw the list - suppose as being classed as not being a member of the SC but its leader - but it is a moot point as he would have a casting vote?
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Oh dear, Socrates.
You really should do more research before firing off your battery of prejudices. An innocent might get hurt (although if it is an Innocent Abroad few might worry).
Take note of the fact that none of the leading Western leaders are yet apportioning blame for the downing of the Malaysian airline. The reason for this is simple: it is not yet known for certain who did it and how.
All we have at the moment is a propaganda battle, the latest salvo of which comes from Moscow:
MOSCOW, July 18, /ITAR-TASS/. Two Ukrainian fighters were following the passenger Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines several minutes before the crash, Russia’s television Channel One said on Friday, citing a tweet made a Spanish air traffic controller of Kiev’s airport Borispol.
According to the Spanish air traffic controller, two Ukrainian fighters had been seen near the Malaysian jet three minutes before it disappeared from radars.
This information is confirmed by eyewitnesses in the Donetsk region who saw Ukrainian warplanes near the passenger jet. They say they heard sounds of powerful blasts and saw a Ukraine warplane shortly before the crash.
So it is an unconfirmed sighting of fighter jets versus a deleted tweet.
Let's wait for some real news.
If it was, as seems likely, a missile, the Americans know exactly where it was launched from, but not by whom.
The current picture is confusing but I think it is reasonably clear that the Tories are not making the sort of recovery that we have seen by governments prior to other elections.
This depends on whether the polling recoveries made by governments prior to previous elections have tended to be gradual and continuous or sudden and discontinuous.
If you take an average of enough discontinuous recoveries you will get an average that is continuous - so the average is then misleading. The same sort of thing happens when people compare the average of the IPCC climate forecasts to the observations.
If we look at some examples then the record is contradictory. The Tory recovery in the polls prior to the 1997 general election was relatively gradual (and modest). The same can clearly not be said about the run-up to the 1983 general election.
2001 is also anomalous, the Government recovery in the polls before 2005 appears to have mostly coincided with Blair announcing he would not seek a 4th term, but the lead-up to 2010 does seem to have seen a gradual closing of the gap between government and opposition.
What to conclude?
I think that there is no clear pattern in past government recoveries, and that it is quite likely that events, of one sort or another are likely to dominate any change in the polls over the next nine months. Obviously there is the Independence Referendum, the party conferences also represent an opportunity as do the pre-budget report and 2015 budget.
So one should not think in terms of judging the Conservatives against an expectation of a gradual, month-by-month recovery in the polls. It may be that one single event crystallises public opinion, or it might be that it matures slowly over time, before reaching a critical threshold.
There is still all to play for.
Edit: Since my number of posts now neatly matches the current Christian year I shall refrain from posting until I have found out what year it is in the Jewish calendar...
Dr Fisher's polls are based overwhemingly on Yougov since it uses www.ukpollingreport.com as a basis...
No, I don't think it is correct to say that YouGov 'overwhelmingly' dominates the ukpollingreport average. Anthony Wells weights down repeated polls from the same pollster:
The interesting move in the Stephen Fisher update is the big change in Lab Maj and Con Maj probabities - from 25% each last week to 20% and 30% respectively this week. I wouldn't take this too literally, but what it demonstrates is how sensitive things are to relatively small shifts at this stage.
Earlier, Nick Palmer said something like "Lib Dems doing badly in Oxford, but holding up in key seats". That is a tempting observation, but it neglects the fact that in 2010 Oxford was a key seat. 2010 had seen a shock gain for Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon, and the LDs were strong on the council. In fact going into local elections on polling day 2010 it was NOC. If Oxford West and Abingdon is now being thrown to the wolves and not funded the same way as others, it would say a lot about the current state of the LDs.
View to see the +ves and -ves (latter includes Ed Balls at No.26), whilst his wife is at No 2. Also a list of those who are ranked neutral - people not being +ve or -ve about them.
Do they not take numbers for the leader or are they too scared to publish ?
Burnham at no 1 - he should run for leader next June..
Henry G Manson has tipped up Andy Burnham for next Labour leader. Just topped up to £30 on him at 14-1 (Skybet).
Earlier, Nick Palmer said something like "Lib Dems doing badly in Oxford, but holding up in key seats". That is a tempting observation, but it neglects the fact that in 2010 Oxford was a key seat. 2010 had seen a shock gain for Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon, and the LDs were strong on the council. In fact going into local elections on polling day 2010 it was NOC. If Oxford West and Abingdon is now being thrown to the wolves and not funded the same way as others, it would say a lot about the current state of the LDs.
Damnit, I've been backing the Lib Dems to regain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Dr Fisher's polls are based overwhemingly on Yougov since it uses www.ukpollingreport.com as a basis...
No, I don't think it is correct to say that YouGov 'overwhelmingly' dominates the ukpollingreport average. Anthony Wells weights down repeated polls from the same pollster:
The interesting move in the Stephen Fisher update is the big change in Lab Maj and Con Maj probabities - from 25% each last week to 20% and 30% respectively this week. I wouldn't take this too literally, but what it demonstrates is how sensitive things are to relatively small shifts at this stage.
Aha - wasn't aware of that - It's a sensible move by Dr Fisher or he'd have excess Yougov bias.
Earlier, Nick Palmer said something like "Lib Dems doing badly in Oxford, but holding up in key seats". That is a tempting observation, but it neglects the fact that in 2010 Oxford was a key seat. 2010 had seen a shock gain for Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon, and the LDs were strong on the council. In fact going into local elections on polling day 2010 it was NOC. If Oxford West and Abingdon is now being thrown to the wolves and not funded the same way as others, it would say a lot about the current state of the LDs.
Damnit, I've been backing the Lib Dems to regain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Oh dear, Socrates.
You really should do more research before firing off your battery of prejudices. An innocent might get hurt (although if it is an Innocent Abroad few might worry).
Take note of the fact that none of the leading Western leaders are yet apportioning blame for the downing of the Malaysian airline. The reason for this is simple: it is not yet known for certain who did it and how.
All we have at the moment is a propaganda battle, the latest salvo of which comes from Moscow:
MOSCOW, July 18, /ITAR-TASS/. Two Ukrainian fighters were following the passenger Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines several minutes before the crash, Russia’s television Channel One said on Friday, citing a tweet made a Spanish air traffic controller of Kiev’s airport Borispol.
According to the Spanish air traffic controller, two Ukrainian fighters had been seen near the Malaysian jet three minutes before it disappeared from radars.
This information is confirmed by eyewitnesses in the Donetsk region who saw Ukrainian warplanes near the passenger jet. They say they heard sounds of powerful blasts and saw a Ukraine warplane shortly before the crash.
So it is an unconfirmed sighting of fighter jets versus a deleted tweet.
Let's wait for some real news.
Shouldn't really make any difference who shot it down, the fact remains the government in Kiev needs to jaw jaw with the rebels. Unfortunately some elements want to drive this crisis until the options are limited to only bad ones.
The main shift in todays Populus is a 4% reduction in 2010L planning to vote L and a corresponding UKIP increase. The other changes are small variations from the average shifts since start February this year after the Populus methodology change.
My instinct is that this is a random shift.
Other points to note so far this month is that 2010LD to LD are consistently lower than average.
Labour are, on average, level-pegging with the Conservatives with ICM; 2% ahead with Com Res; 3% ahead with Populus and MORI; 45 ahead with Yougov, and Lord Ashcroft.
Earlier, Nick Palmer said something like "Lib Dems doing badly in Oxford, but holding up in key seats". That is a tempting observation, but it neglects the fact that in 2010 Oxford was a key seat. 2010 had seen a shock gain for Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon, and the LDs were strong on the council. In fact going into local elections on polling day 2010 it was NOC. If Oxford West and Abingdon is now being thrown to the wolves and not funded the same way as others, it would say a lot about the current state of the LDs.
Damnit, I've been backing the Lib Dems to regain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Current best prices
Con 1/4, Lib Dems 3/1
When I first came to Oxford, it was worth me voting tactically for the Lib Dems. Earlier this year, it simply wasn't. Of course just as the LDs have very little inner-city support neither do the Tories, but that was factored in in 2010 whereas the LD's drop-off has been more recent.
Someone more astute than me can work out which wards are in Blackwood's seat and what share of that seat they make up.
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Oh dear, Socrates.
You really should do more research before firing off your battery of prejudices. An innocent might get hurt (although if it is an Innocent Abroad few might worry).
Take note of the fact that none of the leading Western leaders are yet apportioning blame for the downing of the Malaysian airline. The reason for this is simple: it is not yet known for certain who did it and how.
All we have at the moment is a propaganda battle, the latest salvo of which comes from Moscow:
MOSCOW, July 18, /ITAR-TASS/. Two Ukrainian fighters were following the passenger Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines several minutes before the crash, Russia’s television Channel One said on Friday, citing a tweet made a Spanish air traffic controller of Kiev’s airport Borispol.
According to the Spanish air traffic controller, two Ukrainian fighters had been seen near the Malaysian jet three minutes before it disappeared from radars.
This information is confirmed by eyewitnesses in the Donetsk region who saw Ukrainian warplanes near the passenger jet. They say they heard sounds of powerful blasts and saw a Ukraine warplane shortly before the crash.
So it is an unconfirmed sighting of fighter jets versus a deleted tweet.
Let's wait for some real news.
If it was, as seems likely, a missile, the Americans know exactly where it was launched from, but not by whom.
There are parallel claims from the Russian military that their own satellites have identified the launch of the BUK missiles which brought down the Malaysian airline. This 'news' has been released via RIA Novosti rather than ITAR-TASS, perhaps because it conflicts with the pursuing fighter jets line already published by the latter.
The two most likely countries to have access to relevant satellite data are of course the US and Russia. So far both have been (officially) quiet and non-commital on apportioning blame or even identifying how the plane was brought down.
Earlier, Nick Palmer said something like "Lib Dems doing badly in Oxford, but holding up in key seats". That is a tempting observation, but it neglects the fact that in 2010 Oxford was a key seat. 2010 had seen a shock gain for Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon, and the LDs were strong on the council. In fact going into local elections on polling day 2010 it was NOC. If Oxford West and Abingdon is now being thrown to the wolves and not funded the same way as others, it would say a lot about the current state of the LDs.
Damnit, I've been backing the Lib Dems to regain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Current best prices
Con 1/4, Lib Dems 3/1
Cowley ward is not in Oxford West/Abingdon . 5 Oxford wards are , in the local elections this year Lib Dems won 3 and were a close 2nd to Labour in another , Labour won the 5th easily .
Six British death in the Ukraine plane slaughter. We'd be well within our rights to declare war on the Russia-aligned rebels, once proof is established. The deleted tweets by the "Donetsk People's Republic" makes clear who is guilty. The very least we can do is sanctions on all Russian exports.
Oh dear, Socrates.
You really should do more research before firing off your battery of prejudices. An innocent might get hurt (although if it is an Innocent Abroad few might worry).
Take note of the fact that none of the leading Western leaders are yet apportioning blame for the downing of the Malaysian airline. The reason for this is simple: it is not yet known for certain who did it and how.
All we have at the moment is a propaganda battle, the latest salvo of which comes from Moscow:
MOSCOW, July 18, /ITAR-TASS/. Two Ukrainian fighters were following the passenger Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines several minutes before the crash, Russia’s television Channel One said on Friday, citing a tweet made a Spanish air traffic controller of Kiev’s airport Borispol.
According to the Spanish air traffic controller, two Ukrainian fighters had been seen near the Malaysian jet three minutes before it disappeared from radars.
This information is confirmed by eyewitnesses in the Donetsk region who saw Ukrainian warplanes near the passenger jet. They say they heard sounds of powerful blasts and saw a Ukraine warplane shortly before the crash.
So it is an unconfirmed sighting of fighter jets versus a deleted tweet.
Let's wait for some real news.
If it was, as seems likely, a missile, the Americans know exactly where it was launched from, but not by whom.
There are parallel claims from the Russian military that their own satellites have identified the launch of the BUK missiles which brought down the Malaysian airline. This 'news' has been released via RIA Novosti rather than ITAR-TASS, perhaps because it conflicts with the pursuing fighter jets line already published by the latter.
The two most likely countries to have access to relevant satellite data are of course the US and Russia. So far both have been (officially) quiet and non-commital on apportioning blame or even identifying how the plane was brought down.
All the evidence including intercepted conversations points to the rebels using Russian equipment. For all we know the equipment was operated clandestinely by Russia.
New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2); Cons 35 (+1); LD 8 (-1); UKIP 14 (+2); Oth 8 (-) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140718
MOE. This poll bounces around 35-35.
There's sod all happening - the real picture is Labour ~3pts ahead and has been for yonks.
Under the surface there appears to have been a major structural shift. Direct Tory to Labour swing voters are now as important as Lib Dem to Labour swing voters.
So, in the turnout-weighted table 3, the net swing from Tory to Labour is 15 voters. The net advantage that Labour gains from 2010 Lib Dems is 27 voters. In a Tory-Labour marginal the direct swing voters are worth double to Labour, because they are one vote less for the Tories and one vote more for Labour at the same time, whereas the Lib Dem swing voters just add one more tot he Labour total.
Thus the comparison is between 15 Tory to Labour swing voters and 13.5 Lib Dem to Labour swing voters. For comparison, the equivalent figure for votes lost to UKIP is 16 in Labour's favour in this poll. This is a big change in the assumed terrain of the general election campaign.
One thing that is weird about this is that the last time direct Conservative to Labour swing voters were as important as 2010 Lib Dems was in 2012, following the Omnishambles budget, when Labour was about ten points ahead of the Tories. I don't know why that is so different.
ITAR-TASS now carrrying earlier press release by Russian military which pointed to a surface to air missile being responsible for the downing of the Malaysian airline.
MOSCOW, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. A section of the flight route of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 passenger airliner which crashed in Ukraine on Thursday and its crash site are within fire range of two Ukrainian batteries of long-range air defense missile system S-200 and three batteries of medium-range air defence missile system Buk-M1, the press service of Russian Defense Ministry told ITAR-TASS on Friday.
“In the course of July 17 Russian radio-technical facilities have fixed operation of a radar station 9s18 Kupol of air defense missile system Buk-M1 battery deployed near the settlement of Styla (30 kilometres south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk),” the ministry added.
The Russians appear to be nudging ahead in the propaganda 'blame' battle.
The main shift in todays Populus is a 4% reduction in 2010L planning to vote L and a corresponding UKIP increase. The other changes are small variations from the average shifts since start February this year after the Populus methodology change.
My instinct is that this is a random shift.
Other points to note so far this month is that 2010LD to LD are consistently lower than average.
A labour 'bounce' is bad news for the tories but when Labour dip its 'random shift'? In terms of what is going to happen as the election approaches you have to factor in UKIP which has not been a feature up til now. Plus we have the recent Euros and the forthcoming referendum. There is a lot of confusion about. Plus we have had 4 years of sustained pressure on the economy and attacks from all sides on the govt. Only now is the govt position being recognised as sound.
ITAR-TASS now carrrying earlier press release by Russian military which pointed to a surface to air missile being responsible for the downing of the Malaysian airline.
MOSCOW, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. A section of the flight route of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 passenger airliner which crashed in Ukraine on Thursday and its crash site are within fire range of two Ukrainian batteries of long-range air defense missile system S-200 and three batteries of medium-range air defence missile system Buk-M1, the press service of Russian Defense Ministry told ITAR-TASS on Friday.
“In the course of July 17 Russian radio-technical facilities have fixed operation of a radar station 9s18 Kupol of air defense missile system Buk-M1 battery deployed near the settlement of Styla (30 kilometres south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk),” the ministry added.
The Russians appear to be nudging ahead in the propaganda 'blame' battle.
You think that if it gives you comfort old thing ....
Earlier, Nick Palmer said something like "Lib Dems doing badly in Oxford, but holding up in key seats". That is a tempting observation, but it neglects the fact that in 2010 Oxford was a key seat. 2010 had seen a shock gain for Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon, and the LDs were strong on the council. In fact going into local elections on polling day 2010 it was NOC. If Oxford West and Abingdon is now being thrown to the wolves and not funded the same way as others, it would say a lot about the current state of the LDs.
Damnit, I've been backing the Lib Dems to regain Oxford West & Abingdon.
Current best prices
Con 1/4, Lib Dems 3/1
Cowley ward is not in Oxford West/Abingdon . 5 Oxford wards are , in the local elections this year Lib Dems won 3 and were a close 2nd to Labour in another , Labour won the 5th easily .
the cumulative votes were
LD.. 3610 Lab 3122 Con 2066 Gre 1760
Oxford West/Abingdon also contains 3 wards from Cherwell DC , I would estimate a Con lead over Lib Dems of around 1,200 on the results from this years DC elections ( no election in 1 ward ) and a number of wards from Vale of White Horse DC . The Lib Dems had a lead over Conservatives in the DC elections in 2011 of around 1,000 and around 2,000 in the CC elections in 2013 .
ITAR-TASS now carrrying earlier press release by Russian military which pointed to a surface to air missile being responsible for the downing of the Malaysian airline.
MOSCOW, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. A section of the flight route of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 passenger airliner which crashed in Ukraine on Thursday and its crash site are within fire range of two Ukrainian batteries of long-range air defense missile system S-200 and three batteries of medium-range air defence missile system Buk-M1, the press service of Russian Defense Ministry told ITAR-TASS on Friday.
“In the course of July 17 Russian radio-technical facilities have fixed operation of a radar station 9s18 Kupol of air defense missile system Buk-M1 battery deployed near the settlement of Styla (30 kilometres south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk),” the ministry added.
The Russians appear to be nudging ahead in the propaganda 'blame' battle.
You think that if it gives you comfort old thing ....
It is not a question of comfort, Jack.
It is more reading the carefully filtered news releases from all sides to try to establish the facts.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor-General has already made a public statement which claims that the BUK missile systems generally believed to have shot down the Malaysian airline were not in the control of separatist militias in the region.
Militias in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics do not have Ukrainian air defense missile systems Buk and S-300 at their disposal, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Vitaly Yarema told Ukrainian Pravda newspaper on Friday.
“After the passenger airliner was downed, the military reported to the president that terrorists do not have our air defense missile systems Buk and S-300,” the general prosecutor said. “These weapons were not seized,” he added.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko said on July 17 that the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner had been downed by an air defense missile system Buk.
This does not rule out similar air defence systems owned and controlled by the Russian military being involved, either directly or by proxy, but satellite positioning of the launch point to known deployment of Ukrainian air defence systems make this a less likely explanation.
We are due to have a new house of lords by election due to the recent death of Lib Dem peer Lord Methuen. As Lord Methuen was elected by all the hereditary peers, the electorate for the by-election will also be all the current elected hereditary peers.
Election due in the next 3 months and will be by AV as usual. Typically there will be over 20 stages in the counting process due to transfers.
So one should not think in terms of judging the Conservatives against an expectation of a gradual, month-by-month recovery in the polls. It may be that one single event crystallises public opinion, or it might be that it matures slowly over time, before reaching a critical threshold.
There is still all to play for.
The first point is right. I've always believed in the big-bang event theory rather than the gradual shift (because most people aren't thinking about politics much in between big events, and those who are will mostly be partisans), and I've been posting the remaining known bangs for a year now. The previous ones (the trials, the Budget, the economic revival, etc.) have passed without disturbing the picture of a Labour lead of 3-4 %. I'm sceptical that some of the others will - party conferences are usually neutral overall, the PBR is too technical, the pre-election Budget too obvious a chance to bribe. The referendum, the debates and the general state of UKIP are think the only known unknowns that may well have an effect. We are running short of time for black swans...
ITAR-TASS now carrrying earlier press release by Russian military which pointed to a surface to air missile being responsible for the downing of the Malaysian airline.
MOSCOW, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. A section of the flight route of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 passenger airliner which crashed in Ukraine on Thursday and its crash site are within fire range of two Ukrainian batteries of long-range air defense missile system S-200 and three batteries of medium-range air defence missile system Buk-M1, the press service of Russian Defense Ministry told ITAR-TASS on Friday.
“In the course of July 17 Russian radio-technical facilities have fixed operation of a radar station 9s18 Kupol of air defense missile system Buk-M1 battery deployed near the settlement of Styla (30 kilometres south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk),” the ministry added.
The Russians appear to be nudging ahead in the propaganda 'blame' battle.
You think that if it gives you comfort old thing ....
It is not a question of comfort, Jack.
It is more reading the carefully filtered news releases from all sides to try to establish the facts.
Sadly my old fruit you views on the expansion of the Russian Empire are a distinct blot on your copy book.
On this matter AveryLP means the Avery Line of Putin.
Dr Fisher's polls are based overwhemingly on Yougov since it uses www.ukpollingreport.com as a basis...
No, I don't think it is correct to say that YouGov 'overwhelmingly' dominates the ukpollingreport average. Anthony Wells weights down repeated polls from the same pollster:
The interesting move in the Stephen Fisher update is the big change in Lab Maj and Con Maj probabities - from 25% each last week to 20% and 30% respectively this week. I wouldn't take this too literally, but what it demonstrates is how sensitive things are to relatively small shifts at this stage.
Hmm. It is interesting to speculate what sort of Government we would end up with if the forecast of Con 304, Lab 290, LD 29, Other 27 came true. Very weak continued coalition or perhaps more likely minority government followed by another election
The council seat which Ukip lost last night in Redditch was one they'd only just picked up on 22 May
Interesting. As the Redich Standard says... 'The resignation of a former UKIP councillor is set to cost borough taxpayers up to £10,000. It means the cost to county taxpayers for by-elections following the resignation of UKIP councillors in controversial circumstances is set to hit almost £49,000. Voters in Church Hill will go back to the polls on Thursday, July 17 following Dave Small's decision to resign last week under pressure about alleged racist and homophobic comments made online and in a radio interview.' 'It is not the first time UKIP has been accused of costing taxpayers' money. A by-election costing £22,000 had to be held in Stourport last year after Eric Kitson, who won the seat on Worcestershire County Council for UKIP, stood down after a row over racist Facebook comments.'
So one should not think in terms of judging the Conservatives against an expectation of a gradual, month-by-month recovery in the polls. It may be that one single event crystallises public opinion, or it might be that it matures slowly over time, before reaching a critical threshold.
There is still all to play for.
The first point is right. I've always believed in the big-bang event theory rather than the gradual shift (because most people aren't thinking about politics much in between big events, and those who are will mostly be partisans), and I've been posting the remaining known bangs for a year now. The previous ones (the trials, the Budget, the economic revival, etc.) have passed without disturbing the picture of a Labour lead of 3-4 %. I'm sceptical that some of the others will - party conferences are usually neutral overall, the PBR is too technical, the pre-election Budget too obvious a chance to bribe. The referendum, the debates and the general state of UKIP are think the only known unknowns that may well have an effect. We are running short of time for black swans...
A lot depends on the ofcom decision re ukip and major party status I reckon
No Farage on the telly and the share seems to fall
Dr Fisher's polls are based overwhemingly on Yougov since it uses www.ukpollingreport.com as a basis...
No, I don't think it is correct to say that YouGov 'overwhelmingly' dominates the ukpollingreport average. Anthony Wells weights down repeated polls from the same pollster:
The interesting move in the Stephen Fisher update is the big change in Lab Maj and Con Maj probabities - from 25% each last week to 20% and 30% respectively this week. I wouldn't take this too literally, but what it demonstrates is how sensitive things are to relatively small shifts at this stage.
Hmm. It is interesting to speculate what sort of Government we would end up with if the forecast of Con 304, Lab 290, LD 29, Other 27 came true. Very weak continued coalition or perhaps more likely minority government followed by another election
Actually those numbers would likely indicate a continuance of the present Coalition with a formal majority of 16 but of course somewhat higher with the absence of SF and also an element of less formal support from the Unionists.
Difficult but another 5 years a distinct probability.
So one should not think in terms of judging the Conservatives against an expectation of a gradual, month-by-month recovery in the polls. It may be that one single event crystallises public opinion, or it might be that it matures slowly over time, before reaching a critical threshold.
There is still all to play for.
The first point is right. I've always believed in the big-bang event theory rather than the gradual shift (because most people aren't thinking about politics much in between big events, and those who are will mostly be partisans), and I've been posting the remaining known bangs for a year now. The previous ones (the trials, the Budget, the economic revival, etc.) have passed without disturbing the picture of a Labour lead of 3-4 %. I'm sceptical that some of the others will - party conferences are usually neutral overall, the PBR is too technical, the pre-election Budget too obvious a chance to bribe. The referendum, the debates and the general state of UKIP are think the only known unknowns that may well have an effect. We are running short of time for black swans...
You see, one of those points is up for debate.
There is a clear correlation in economic optimism increasing (or rather economic pessimism decreasing) and Labour's lead falling.
The people's perceptions and expectations of the economy went downhill post the omnishambles budget, when coincidentally Labour's lead and share of the vote increased.
Things started improving in early 2013 and Labour's share of the vote and lead fell at the same time.
I remember when some PBers used to say Labour had a guaranteed share of the vote of around 40% and nothing had changed for months.
This does not rule out similar air defence systems owned and controlled by the Russian military being involved, either directly or by proxy, but satellite positioning of the launch point to known deployment of Ukrainian air defence systems make this a less likely explanation.
Of course they weren't Ukrainian weaponry. The "the militias took helicopters/APCs/anti-aircraft guns off defecting units" line has obviously been bullshit since the beginning. They got it from the Russians.
What is your evidence for the satellite positioning showing they came from Ukrainian air defence systems? This is absurd. The launch came from deep inside rebel-held territory.
We are due to have a new house of lords by election due to the recent death of Lib Dem peer Lord Methuen. As Lord Methuen was elected by all the hereditary peers, the electorate for the by-election will also be all the current elected hereditary peers.
Election due in the next 3 months and will be by AV as usual. Typically there will be over 20 stages in the counting process due to transfers.
Sorry, the electorate is actually the whole house of Lords not just the elected hereditaries.
Williams were surprisingly slow in P1. However, the fact their pace was about the same as the Sauber suggests the Williams was testing something or very fat with fuel. Decent pace by Wolff, if she was on the same setup was Massa.
Mr. Eagles, I don't think Miliband has had a decade of success in enemy territory, including the greatest march, ambush and tactical victory in history.
I can only suggest you re-acquaint yourself with TA Dodge's excellent biography of Hannibal.
Mr. Eagles, I don't think Miliband has had a decade of success in enemy territory, including the greatest march, ambush and tactical victory in history.
I can only suggest you re-acquaint yourself with TA Dodge's excellent biography of Hannibal.
A couple of years ahead in the polls is equivalent to Cannae (ie vastly overrated victory against people determined to lose, yes that makes George Osborne Paullus)
Sadly Cook is so out of touch and confidence that he simply doesn't justify his place in the team.
You cannot live off past triumphs in a team that is struggling so desperately. Cook needs to return to county cricket, make a shed load of runs and remind himself what an excellent front line batsman he is.
There is a clear correlation in economic optimism increasing (or rather economic pessimism decreasing) and Labour's lead falling.
The people's perceptions and expectations of the economy were went downhill post the omnishambles budget, when coincidentally Labour's lead and share of the vote increased.
Things started improving in early 2013 and Labour's share of the vote and lead fell at the same time.
I remember when some PBers used to say Labour had a guaranteed share of the vote of around 40% and nothing had changed for months.
Not sure if you're tactfully looking at me, but I don't remember claiming that there was a guaranteed 40% share? Anyway, let's look at the trends in the data. Taking YG for simplicity because they poll so often:
Leaving aside the occasional outlier, Labour's share was 38-40 in May 2013. That remained broadly the picture until March 2014, since when it's been 36-38, coinciding with a rise in UKIP. Meanwhile the Conservative figure has been 30-34 throughout (again bar the odd outlier).
I don't think you can reasonably say that this shows any sort of long-term trend matching a rise in economic optimism (which has definitely turned round dramatically over the same period). One might expect economic optimism to parallel government popularity, but actually it doesn't (IMO because most people in reality vote on other issues or simply on the basis of like/dislike).
Cook needs putting out of his misery, we need a captain with more authority and Cook back on his game batting. Can't believe I am saying this but Broad should take over, we need someone with more drive running the team.
There is a clear correlation in economic optimism increasing (or rather economic pessimism decreasing) and Labour's lead falling.
The people's perceptions and expectations of the economy were went downhill post the omnishambles budget, when coincidentally Labour's lead and share of the vote increased.
Things started improving in early 2013 and Labour's share of the vote and lead fell at the same time.
I remember when some PBers used to say Labour had a guaranteed share of the vote of around 40% and nothing had changed for months.
Not sure if you're tactfully looking at me, but I don't remember claiming that there was a guaranteed 40% share? Anyway, let's look at the trends in the data. Taking YG for simplicity because they poll so often:
Leaving aside the occasional outlier, Labour's share was 38-40 in May 2013. That remained broadly the picture until March 2014, since when it's been 36-38, coinciding with a rise in UKIP. Meanwhile the Conservative figure has been 30-34 throughout (again bar the odd outlier).
I don't think you can reasonably say that this shows any sort of long-term trend matching a rise in economic optimism (which has definitely turned round dramatically over the same period). One might expect economic optimism to parallel government popularity, but actually it doesn't (IMO because most people in reality vote on other issues or simply on the basis of like/dislike).
Lol no, not you. It was IOS who one night assured us all, that apart from outworking the Tories in Cornwall, Labour had a firewall of 40%.
If you use pollsters other than YouGov, the trend is a bit more clearer
Mr. Eagles, Varro had the command that day. Honestly.
And it can be an act only of the utmost lunacy to consider Cannae an overrated victory. You silly sausage.
Varro = Dave, Paullus = Osborne.
By common consent, Paullus and Varro are considered, inept, arrogant and rubbish, when Hannibal met a decent general in Scipio Africanus, it ended the second punic war.
It's the equivalent of England smashing Italy by 60-3 in the Rugby and saying England are the best team in the world.
Actually those numbers would likely indicate a continuance of the present Coalition with a formal majority of 16 but of course somewhat higher with the absence of SF and also an element of less formal support from the Unionists.
Difficult but another 5 years a distinct probability.
Whilst that might be the logical outcome, and one favoured by the leadership of both parties, I'm not sure the appetite for a new coalition can be relied upon either amongst Conservative MPs (who this time will get a vote, not a fait accompli as last time), or amongst the wider LibDem Party, who would also have to approve any deal.
On the hypothesis of 304 Con seats, they might try to wing it having done some kind of deal with the DUP. It's not an outcome which I view with equanimity: it would be very high-risk and likely to collapse into recriminations and instability.
What is your evidence for the satellite positioning showing they came from Ukrainian air defence systems? This is absurd. The launch came from deep inside rebel-held territory.
Neither of us know the facts, Socrates. We can only rely on published information and differing claims from interested parties. Such released information may not even be factual and the claims from all sides are already in conflict and should be treated with health scepticism.
That is why I tend to quote verbatim and give sources. Here goes then. An ITAR-TASS release on deployment of BUK missile capability in the region:
Russia’s defence ministry says Kiev’s statements that no aerial shooting was conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces’ warplanes or missile defence systems cause serious doubts. “In conditions of fierce fighting in this region, it is practically impossible to draw such a definite conclusion in such a short time,” the press service of the Russian defence ministry told Itar-Tass on Friday. “Such statements that entail serious legal consequence require an all-round investigation.
According to the information available at the Russian defence ministry, Ukrainian army had units equipped with missile defence systems of the Buk-M1 type in the area of the jet crash. “Thus, divisions of the 156th air defence regiment of the Ukrainian armed forces are deployed near Donetsk’s northwestern suburbs. They have missile defence systems of the Buk-M1 type. Such systems are capable of detecting air targets at a distance of up to 160 kilometers and hit them in the entire range of altitudes at a distance of over 30 kilometers.”
“Apart from that, warplanes of the Ukrainian army equipped with various types of missiles are permanently present over the Donetsk region,” the press service noted.
Commenting on allegations concerning the actions of the Russian armed forces in Russian regions bordering Ukraine, the Russian defence ministry said, “On July 17, Russian missile defence systems in this region were out of service. Russian warplanes performed no flight in Russian regions bordering Ukraine on July 17. This information is confirmed by recorders.”
The ministry noted that the Boeing was flying outside the range of Russian missile defence systems. It was in Ukraine’s air space and within the scope of its air traffic control. The ministry called for a thorough investigation into the crash involving all international organizations concerned. “We call on the international community to conduct a thorough and maximum open investigation into this accident,” the Russian defence ministry stressed.
By all means quote and source publicly released information from the Ukrainian military or government which might conflict with this Russian account. The more sourced information we have available the easier it should be for us to interpret.
Mr. Eagles, Varro had the command that day. Honestly.
And it can be an act only of the utmost lunacy to consider Cannae an overrated victory. You silly sausage.
Varro = Dave, Paullus = Osborne.
By common consent, Paullus and Varro are considered, inept, arrogant and rubbish, when Hannibal met a decent general in Scipio Africanus, it ended the second punic war.
It's the equivalent of England smashing Italy by 60-3 in the Rugby and saying England are the best team in the world.
Mr. Eagles, Varro had the command that day. Honestly.
And it can be an act only of the utmost lunacy to consider Cannae an overrated victory. You silly sausage.
Varro = Dave, Paullus = Osborne.
By common consent, Paullus and Varro are considered, inept, arrogant and rubbish, when Hannibal met a decent general in Scipio Africanus, it ended the second punic war.
It's the equivalent of England smashing Italy by 60-3 in the Rugby and saying England are the best team in the world.
He did defeat and kill Claudius Marcellus, though, who certainly was a first rate general.
So accidentally shot down by the separatists thinking it was another Antonov - unless people think they shot down a civilian air liner deliberately - or deliberately by the other side (as the separatists don't have any planes to shoot down IIRC).
If it was shot down accidentally then the question bounces back to why it was flying over an area that had seen three (IIRC) Ukraine military planes shot down in recent weeks.
(It would be good to know what height the downed Ukrainian military planes were flying as if it was a lot lower than the air liner that might explain air liners still being allowed to fly over that area.)
Mr. Eagles, Varro had the command that day. Honestly.
And it can be an act only of the utmost lunacy to consider Cannae an overrated victory. You silly sausage.
Varro = Dave, Paullus = Osborne.
By common consent, Paullus and Varro are considered, inept, arrogant and rubbish, when Hannibal met a decent general in Scipio Africanus, it ended the second punic war.
It's the equivalent of England smashing Italy by 60-3 in the Rugby and saying England are the best team in the world.
Mr. Eagles, Varro had the command that day. Honestly.
And it can be an act only of the utmost lunacy to consider Cannae an overrated victory. You silly sausage.
Varro = Dave, Paullus = Osborne.
By common consent, Paullus and Varro are considered, inept, arrogant and rubbish, when Hannibal met a decent general in Scipio Africanus, it ended the second punic war.
It's the equivalent of England smashing Italy by 60-3 in the Rugby and saying England are the best team in the world.
He did defeat and kill Claudius Marcellus, though, who certainly was a first rate general.
Comments
There's sod all happening - the real picture is Labour ~3pts ahead and has been for yonks.
Regardless the capability doesn't exist to do so, and in realistic terms that means declaring war on Russia, which there is no appetite for.
Realistically, nothing is going to happen.
Con only down 1% on their GE score, and UKIP up 11% on their GE Score.
Lib Dems @ 58% on the 10/10 to vote is bad news when you are only finding 117 respondents out of over 2000 though.
SNP ahead of Lib Dems in Scotland still...
The ComRes online poll and the Opinium.
Wonder what they'll show.
Cricket on terrestrial TV would be nice. Although I love Sky coverage it means the sport has fallen out of the national consciousness somewhat. It's hard to imagine another Ashes summer like 2005 when cricket ruled the world.
Meanwhile, what price another big last wicket stand at HQ today? England seem to have a problem of late killing teams off.
BTW the tweets referred to the various planes which the rebels have shot down. With short range missiles. We don't have any proof that the rebels have this long range system but we do have proof that Kiev not only does but has them stationed in the area. Then we have the question as to what the plane was doing overflying that area when its normal path always takes it south. Kiev air traffic control was in command - was the flight ordered onto that course?
I'm calling false flag on this one. Like Assad choosing the day the UN weapons inspectors arive in Damascus to attack people with chemical weapons, this stinks.
When I were a nipper I used to hate the BBC tv coverage - sharing BBC2 when Wimbledon was on, cutting away from the test to show a horse race just as Chris Old was running in to bowl.
TMS is possibly the best thing the BBC do would pay £5 a month for it .
+80.73 India
+12.62 Draw
Don't think it'll be a draw but the price could yet shorten...
Laid England at odds on earlier this morning, no idea why they were odds on tbh - They are evens now.
Jimmy's last wicket stand killed me in the last game but that was a freakishly flat surface and he doesn't normally get 80 odd...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28356712
Not a smart comment, but certainly not worth of disciplinary action.
Ed Miliband is the victim of everyday sexism.
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/is-ed-miliband-a-victim-of-everyday-sexism/
England should look to bat once - the pitch is flattening and drying out.
Hasn't Cameron been criticised for being red of hue and rotund of frame? Hasn't Clegg been criticised for appearing tired, even on the verge of tears (after the European election results)?
This is just bleating, pleading victimisation from a party that excels in attacking others for which school their parents sent them to, or for not being poor enough (despite the niece of the Countess of Longford being Labour's deputy leader).
Yes, the party that's current leader and previous leader are both privately educated, one of whom is an Old Etonian.
Now off to watch the Open.
View to see the +ves and -ves (latter includes Ed Balls at No.26), whilst his wife is at No 2. Also a list of those who are ranked neutral - people not being +ve or -ve about them.
A truly spectacular thunderstorm last night over Wiltshire, no rain at all, so watched it pass overhead while sat in the garden until after midnight - I don’t think I’ve seen the like in many a year. - Good luck to all those attempting to capture it on film.
You really should do more research before firing off your battery of prejudices. An innocent might get hurt (although if it is an Innocent Abroad few might worry).
Take note of the fact that none of the leading Western leaders are yet apportioning blame for the downing of the Malaysian airline. The reason for this is simple: it is not yet known for certain who did it and how.
All we have at the moment is a propaganda battle, the latest salvo of which comes from Moscow:
MOSCOW, July 18, /ITAR-TASS/. Two Ukrainian fighters were following the passenger Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines several minutes before the crash, Russia’s television Channel One said on Friday, citing a tweet made a Spanish air traffic controller of Kiev’s airport Borispol.
According to the Spanish air traffic controller, two Ukrainian fighters had been seen near the Malaysian jet three minutes before it disappeared from radars.
This information is confirmed by eyewitnesses in the Donetsk region who saw Ukrainian warplanes near the passenger jet. They say they heard sounds of powerful blasts and saw a Ukraine warplane shortly before the crash.
So it is an unconfirmed sighting of fighter jets versus a deleted tweet.
Let's wait for some real news.
Burnham at no 1 - he should run for leader next June..
SNP 33% SLD 8%
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-Based_Infrared_System
I've backed the farm against the Lib Dems in Scotland, and am long SNP ^_~
If you take an average of enough discontinuous recoveries you will get an average that is continuous - so the average is then misleading. The same sort of thing happens when people compare the average of the IPCC climate forecasts to the observations.
If we look at some examples then the record is contradictory. The Tory recovery in the polls prior to the 1997 general election was relatively gradual (and modest). The same can clearly not be said about the run-up to the 1983 general election.
2001 is also anomalous, the Government recovery in the polls before 2005 appears to have mostly coincided with Blair announcing he would not seek a 4th term, but the lead-up to 2010 does seem to have seen a gradual closing of the gap between government and opposition.
What to conclude?
I think that there is no clear pattern in past government recoveries, and that it is quite likely that events, of one sort or another are likely to dominate any change in the polls over the next nine months. Obviously there is the Independence Referendum, the party conferences also represent an opportunity as do the pre-budget report and 2015 budget.
So one should not think in terms of judging the Conservatives against an expectation of a gradual, month-by-month recovery in the polls. It may be that one single event crystallises public opinion, or it might be that it matures slowly over time, before reaching a critical threshold.
There is still all to play for.
Edit: Since my number of posts now neatly matches the current Christian year I shall refrain from posting until I have found out what year it is in the Jewish calendar...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
The interesting move in the Stephen Fisher update is the big change in Lab Maj and Con Maj probabities - from 25% each last week to 20% and 30% respectively this week. I wouldn't take this too literally, but what it demonstrates is how sensitive things are to relatively small shifts at this stage.
Current best prices
Con 1/4, Lib Dems 3/1
My instinct is that this is a random shift.
Other points to note so far this month is that 2010LD to LD are consistently lower than average.
Someone more astute than me can work out which wards are in Blackwood's seat and what share of that seat they make up.
The two most likely countries to have access to relevant satellite data are of course the US and Russia. So far both have been (officially) quiet and non-commital on apportioning blame or even identifying how the plane was brought down.
the cumulative votes were
LD.. 3610
Lab 3122
Con 2066
Gre 1760
http://www.mediafire.com/view/8b1z01ezbt6hbxo/Populus_180714.jpg
So, in the turnout-weighted table 3, the net swing from Tory to Labour is 15 voters. The net advantage that Labour gains from 2010 Lib Dems is 27 voters. In a Tory-Labour marginal the direct swing voters are worth double to Labour, because they are one vote less for the Tories and one vote more for Labour at the same time, whereas the Lib Dem swing voters just add one more tot he Labour total.
Thus the comparison is between 15 Tory to Labour swing voters and 13.5 Lib Dem to Labour swing voters. For comparison, the equivalent figure for votes lost to UKIP is 16 in Labour's favour in this poll. This is a big change in the assumed terrain of the general election campaign.
One thing that is weird about this is that the last time direct Conservative to Labour swing voters were as important as 2010 Lib Dems was in 2012, following the Omnishambles budget, when Labour was about ten points ahead of the Tories. I don't know why that is so different.
The year in the Hebrew calendar is 5774.
MOSCOW, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. A section of the flight route of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 passenger airliner which crashed in Ukraine on Thursday and its crash site are within fire range of two Ukrainian batteries of long-range air defense missile system S-200 and three batteries of medium-range air defence missile system Buk-M1, the press service of Russian Defense Ministry told ITAR-TASS on Friday.
“In the course of July 17 Russian radio-technical facilities have fixed operation of a radar station 9s18 Kupol of air defense missile system Buk-M1 battery deployed near the settlement of Styla (30 kilometres south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk),” the ministry added.
The Russians appear to be nudging ahead in the propaganda 'blame' battle.
In terms of what is going to happen as the election approaches you have to factor in UKIP which has not been a feature up til now. Plus we have the recent Euros and the forthcoming referendum. There is a lot of confusion about. Plus we have had 4 years of sustained pressure on the economy and attacks from all sides on the govt. Only now is the govt position being recognised as sound.
Daleks coming .... behind the sofa time folks ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnuHxAR01Jo
It is more reading the carefully filtered news releases from all sides to try to establish the facts.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor-General has already made a public statement which claims that the BUK missile systems generally believed to have shot down the Malaysian airline were not in the control of separatist militias in the region.
Militias in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics do not have Ukrainian air defense missile systems Buk and S-300 at their disposal, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Vitaly Yarema told Ukrainian Pravda newspaper on Friday.
“After the passenger airliner was downed, the military reported to the president that terrorists do not have our air defense missile systems Buk and S-300,” the general prosecutor said. “These weapons were not seized,” he added.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko said on July 17 that the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner had been downed by an air defense missile system Buk.
This does not rule out similar air defence systems owned and controlled by the Russian military being involved, either directly or by proxy, but satellite positioning of the launch point to known deployment of Ukrainian air defence systems make this a less likely explanation.
Election due in the next 3 months and will be by AV as usual. Typically there will be over 20 stages in the counting process due to transfers.
Look at the record books ....
Tsk ....
On this matter AveryLP means the Avery Line of Putin.
'The resignation of a former UKIP councillor is set to cost borough taxpayers up to £10,000.
It means the cost to county taxpayers for by-elections following the resignation of UKIP councillors in controversial circumstances is set to hit almost £49,000.
Voters in Church Hill will go back to the polls on Thursday, July 17 following Dave Small's decision to resign last week under pressure about alleged racist and homophobic comments made online and in a radio interview.'
'It is not the first time UKIP has been accused of costing taxpayers' money. A by-election costing £22,000 had to be held in Stourport last year after Eric Kitson, who won the seat on Worcestershire County Council for UKIP, stood down after a row over racist Facebook comments.'
No Farage on the telly and the share seems to fall
Difficult but another 5 years a distinct probability.
There is a clear correlation in economic optimism increasing (or rather economic pessimism decreasing) and Labour's lead falling.
The people's perceptions and expectations of the economy went downhill post the omnishambles budget, when coincidentally Labour's lead and share of the vote increased.
Things started improving in early 2013 and Labour's share of the vote and lead fell at the same time.
I remember when some PBers used to say Labour had a guaranteed share of the vote of around 40% and nothing had changed for months.
What is your evidence for the satellite positioning showing they came from Ukrainian air defence systems? This is absurd. The launch came from deep inside rebel-held territory.
Williams were surprisingly slow in P1. However, the fact their pace was about the same as the Sauber suggests the Williams was testing something or very fat with fuel. Decent pace by Wolff, if she was on the same setup was Massa.
Mr. Eagles, I don't think Miliband has had a decade of success in enemy territory, including the greatest march, ambush and tactical victory in history.
I can only suggest you re-acquaint yourself with TA Dodge's excellent biography of Hannibal.
Eng -27.59
India +81.23
Draw -11.38
Sadly Cook is so out of touch and confidence that he simply doesn't justify his place in the team.
You cannot live off past triumphs in a team that is struggling so desperately. Cook needs to return to county cricket, make a shed load of runs and remind himself what an excellent front line batsman he is.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
Leaving aside the occasional outlier, Labour's share was 38-40 in May 2013. That remained broadly the picture until March 2014, since when it's been 36-38, coinciding with a rise in UKIP. Meanwhile the Conservative figure has been 30-34 throughout (again bar the odd outlier).
I don't think you can reasonably say that this shows any sort of long-term trend matching a rise in economic optimism (which has definitely turned round dramatically over the same period). One might expect economic optimism to parallel government popularity, but actually it doesn't (IMO because most people in reality vote on other issues or simply on the basis of like/dislike).
And it can be an act only of the utmost lunacy to consider Cannae an overrated victory. You silly sausage.
If you use pollsters other than YouGov, the trend is a bit more clearer
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
or Ipsos-Mori
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
I have plotted the data using both Ipsos-Mori, YouGov and ICM's equivalent economy questions, and the trend is generally clear.
Economic optimism rises, Labour's share of the vote falls, Tories up a bit.
By common consent, Paullus and Varro are considered, inept, arrogant and rubbish, when Hannibal met a decent general in Scipio Africanus, it ended the second punic war.
It's the equivalent of England smashing Italy by 60-3 in the Rugby and saying England are the best team in the world.
On the hypothesis of 304 Con seats, they might try to wing it having done some kind of deal with the DUP. It's not an outcome which I view with equanimity: it would be very high-risk and likely to collapse into recriminations and instability.
What is your evidence for the satellite positioning showing they came from Ukrainian air defence systems? This is absurd. The launch came from deep inside rebel-held territory.
Neither of us know the facts, Socrates. We can only rely on published information and differing claims from interested parties. Such released information may not even be factual and the claims from all sides are already in conflict and should be treated with health scepticism.
That is why I tend to quote verbatim and give sources. Here goes then. An ITAR-TASS release on deployment of BUK missile capability in the region:
Russia’s defence ministry says Kiev’s statements that no aerial shooting was conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces’ warplanes or missile defence systems cause serious doubts.
“In conditions of fierce fighting in this region, it is practically impossible to draw such a definite conclusion in such a short time,” the press service of the Russian defence ministry told Itar-Tass on Friday. “Such statements that entail serious legal consequence require an all-round investigation.
According to the information available at the Russian defence ministry, Ukrainian army had units equipped with missile defence systems of the Buk-M1 type in the area of the jet crash. “Thus, divisions of the 156th air defence regiment of the Ukrainian armed forces are deployed near Donetsk’s northwestern suburbs. They have missile defence systems of the Buk-M1 type. Such systems are capable of detecting air targets at a distance of up to 160 kilometers and hit them in the entire range of altitudes at a distance of over 30 kilometers.”
“Apart from that, warplanes of the Ukrainian army equipped with various types of missiles are permanently present over the Donetsk region,” the press service noted.
Commenting on allegations concerning the actions of the Russian armed forces in Russian regions bordering Ukraine, the Russian defence ministry said, “On July 17, Russian missile defence systems in this region were out of service. Russian warplanes performed no flight in Russian regions bordering Ukraine on July 17. This information is confirmed by recorders.”
The ministry noted that the Boeing was flying outside the range of Russian missile defence systems. It was in Ukraine’s air space and within the scope of its air traffic control.
The ministry called for a thorough investigation into the crash involving all international organizations concerned. “We call on the international community to conduct a thorough and maximum open investigation into this accident,” the Russian defence ministry stressed.
By all means quote and source publicly released information from the Ukrainian military or government which might conflict with this Russian account. The more sourced information we have available the easier it should be for us to interpret.
Eng -4.79
India +46.73
Draw -11.38
now.
Seems to make a nonsense of NORAD and the Ruski equivalent?
If it was shot down accidentally then the question bounces back to why it was flying over an area that had seen three (IIRC) Ukraine military planes shot down in recent weeks.
(It would be good to know what height the downed Ukrainian military planes were flying as if it was a lot lower than the air liner that might explain air liners still being allowed to fly over that area.)