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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead while UKIP have a dreadful night in latest by-elections
For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled TNS overnight has them in their best position yet.
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I'm holidaying in Europe.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-listing/1471137481/ref=tmm_hrd_new_olp_sr?ie=UTF8&condition=new&qid=1405638784&sr=1-1
Damian McBride
@DPMcBride
Got a bad feeling about tomorrow: the world's blowing up, the S&P500 is on a precipice, investors are thinking holidays, #BlackFriday alert.
A mixed night for everyone. A few straws to grasp on most directions, except UKIP.
To be honest, I'm not sure I'd make too much of these results - too many independents and minor parties scoring prominently. That might well indicate a disillusionment with the major political parties but it's not something that can be easily read into a general election projection.
I'd take the polls more seriously, and Labour does look to have picked up a little of late, with UKIP finally falling back. Again though, I wonder whether this is a revertion to a peacetime state after a closing of the gap during the elections and so again, not necessarily a true reflection of how opinion will move after 4+ weeks of campaigning.
You heard it here first folks. Do not say you weren't warned.
http://www.labourforindy.com/
Looks like the Tories may be sliding a little in the polls and some of the negative issues might be affecting them. There are concerns about A&E in some parts of the country, lack of school places in some areas, cost of living increases with no income increase to match etc.
Sometimes I do wonder whether Cameron/Osborne come across as too positive about the growth in the economy and this comes up against a wall of negativity. They obviously think that if the government remains upbeat they can overcome negativity and gain support. This might just prove to be irritating to most people, who think Cameron/Osborne are out of touch. Perhaps they need to go back to rolling up the sleeves and say that a lot of hard work is still needed to transform the economy, so the UK has a chance of succeeding in a very challenging new era. They may say this, but they also can't resist in saying what a good job they are going.
I am extremely light on equities and have piled onto good ole cash n gold up to my eyeballs. I am very, very comfortable with that position thank you very much.
Anybody nearer than 10 years to retirement should avoid equities like the plague. I will only get back into that field once the serious correction has occurred.
40+ LD seats is 5/1, which funnily enough is longer than Shadsy's YES price (9/2).
Europe is in a lull at the moment, sovereign debt remains unsustainable and the banking system is hiding real problems. An energy prices spike, a continued slowdown in Eastern Europe could tip things.
Sep 2013 - 21.6%
Sep 2013 - 21.4%
Sep 2013 - 19.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.8%
Oct 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.2%
Nov 2013 - 18.4%
Nov 2013 - 18.0%
Dec 2013 - 17.0%
Dec 2013 - 16.8%
Dec 2013 - 16.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 15.2%
Feb 2014 - 15.0%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 13.7%
Feb 2014 - 13.3%
Feb 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.7%
Mar 2014 - 13.8%
Mar 2014 - 13.0%
Mar 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.3%
Apr 2014 - 11.4%
May 2014 - 11.2%
May 2014 - 11.2%
May 2014 - 11.5%
May 2014 - 13.3%
Jun 2014 - 12.1%
Jun 2014 - 12.1%
Jun 2014 - 11.3%
Jun 2014 - 9.9%
Jun 2014 - 10.3%
Jun 2014 - 10.7%
Jul 2014 - 11.0%
Jul 2014 - 11.0%
Jul 2014 - 11.7%
Jul 2014 - 10.9%
One element of the speculation is that this has been distorted by fixed term Parliaments but if ever was a factor I have difficulty in seeing it now since we are in a timescale where we would normally have some idea even without fixed Parliaments. Everyone knew in 2009, for example, that Labour was going to go long in the hope that something turned up.
http://m.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-moral-clarity-in-gaza/2014/07/17/0adabe0c-0de4-11e4-8c9a-923ecc0c7d23_story.html
The flights currently been shown by Flightradar24.com all seem to keeping south of the north-eastern tip of the Sea of Azov.
Principles are very dangerous things, and human beings should not be allowed anywhere near them.
If you need a distraction from the generally horrid news, don't forget P1 starts at 9am today.
East Coast is doing pretty well in the public sector...
http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/customers-give-east-coast-top-satisfaction-rating-in-latest-survey/
http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/customers-give-east-coast-top-satisfaction-rating-in-latest-survey/
The scale of this is hard to credit. Nelson says:
"Each month, the figures confound the predictions of even the most optimistic economists. In last year’s Budget, for example, George Osborne set out an ambitious target of getting 900,000 more people into work by 2018. This figure will now be reached next month."
Is this the answer? Are all these penalties being imposed in an arbitrary way and rent arrears arising from reductions in Housing Benefit really pushing hundreds of thousands to think, "oh sod it, I'll get a job then"?
My guess is that there is a bit of that but the more important part is the drive in making work pay by providing much more generous in work benefits. In other words I think the carrot rather than the stick. But one way or another this is starting to look like one of the most successful public policy changes in recent decades. It is not doing much for the deficit though.
“One of the biggest decisions that will be taken at Labour’s National Policy Forum, which opens in Milton Keynes tomorrow, will be on the party’s rail policy. As has long been known, Ed Miliband will pledge to reform the franchising system to allow publicly-owned bodies to bid for contracts as they expire (in contrast to the coalition’s dogmatic allegiance to the private sector). But I understand that the full package goes far beyond this.
In what would be the biggest reform of the railways since privatisation, Labour will pledge to create a new overarching body, accountable to parliament, tasked with implementing a national strategy for the railways. This would bring Network Rail and a new passenger rail body together to co-ordinate passenger operations, manage infrastructure, oversee stations and ticketing, and ensure customer satisfaction across the network.
As part of its plan to ease the living standards crisis, the party will also seek to reduce the pressure on commuters by capping annual fare rises on every route, simplifying price structures and creating a new legal right to the cheapest ticket. In addition, it will vow to devolve regional and commuter services in an attempt to improve local transport, integrating trains, buses and trams along the lines of the Transport for London model.”
Hardly news, I have been pointing out basically the same thing for years now, and being roundly criticized for saying it.
The real fun begins shortly after the next election, when IDS brings in a new set of rules for the self employed.
2. Easiest with pricing is to allow just one fare at all times - will put prices up - are you proposing nationalisation by default?
Its a typical half hearted nonsense. You think any Govt will have the money to invest in the infrastructure? UKPLC is bust as a result of your party's stewardship in case you had forgotten.
As I have said before on here the question is whether we can have too much of a good thing. If welfare reform is to produce significant cuts in public spending the current level of generosity for in work benefits cannot continue. I think this is inevitable.
The right end of the taper is of course the top end. Those earning more than the average wage will, I think, find their in work entitlements severely cut after the election to protect the 16 hour a week subsidised labour.
But the point is that even with all the problems with Universal Credit, which has frustrated and worried me, the reforms already in place actually make IDS one of the success stories of this government. It is not the public perception but he has delivered something not much short of a miracle in an economy still growing only modestly.
Is the Coalition pairing of IDS & Steve Webb providing the greatest team performance since Germany beat Brazil 7:1
Discuss.
2) "the question is whether we can have too much of a good thing. If welfare reform is to produce significant cuts in public spending the current level of generosity for in work benefits cannot continue."
So they're right then - even if for the wrong reason.
Using mass immigration to drive wages down effectively transfers wage costs from the employer to the taxpayer.
Which is why big business lobbied the political class to open and keep open the borders.
It depends on your point of view on whether or not you consider it a "success".
The major problem is (and IDS knows this), that those "jobs" are unsustainable, and he has accordingly laid plans that will come in to affect after the election.
My point of view is that it is the usual smoke and mirrors all governments use, and that no one seems to know or care, preferring the fantasy to the harsh reality.
Tory MEPs just voted against a referendum, and against treaty reform. And against the proposition that "The euro is inherently flawed".
Morning all. Working age benefits (which cover a multitude of sins) run at around £50 billion p.a., or around 3% of GDP. They're forecast to drift slightly lower over the next few years (as a percentage of GDP that is). Another way to look at it; they cost about half as much as pensions.
I absolutely agree that spending cuts will be required in the next parliament and in-work benefits have to be a candidate, but I wouldn't put it at the top of the list.
But now I must go and get cleared up as I am due to fly off on holiday tomorrow. Never the best of fliers I am looking forward to this flight even less than usual, funnily enough. Thunderstorms promised too.
The underlying position remains much the same as it has been for ages, and I'm not convinced that it will change significantly in the last 9 months - people on the doorstep are unusually firm, both Labour and Tory. If you really like or dislike the government, as so many people seem to, all news tends to be filtered through that perception and interpreted to reinforce the prejudice. A non-partisan note to Mike if you've got any links to high command: my (animal welfare) organisation (like no doubt others) has been waiting for ages to book a stand at the UKIP conference, as we did last year. We've been told for months that it's at Doncaster Racecourse and more info will follow in due course. The organisation needs to get its finger out and start accepting bookings - the other parties have been taking them for many months.
What's Poznan like, Philip?
The council seat which Ukip lost last night in Redditch was one they'd only just picked up on 22 May
Enjoy your holiday.
Only some of it could be classed as slave labour, the "self employed" gig is a nice little earner for doing practically nothing except filling in a few forms.
Can I get a child chimney sweep - Can I eck as like ....
What of a scullery maid - Might as well ask Farage to drink Perrier water ....
A journey man under gardener - Charlie Dimmock would be easier to get ....
In fact the information that the Book People bought the book is in fact news as clearly they thought the book was interesting enough that people would admit to Work colleagues that they wanted to buy it.
The BOE was touting an interest rate rise when unemployment fell below 7%.
You can find out why they changed their minds if you read between the lines, but you have to read with no prejudice, just the hard figures.
This is as difficult for me as it is for yourselves, but it is possible.
The state successfully part-runs railway franchises in the UK already. Indeed the state part
runs Southern (just awarded the expanded Thameslink franchise), London Midland, London Overground, Southeastern, Northern Rail, Transpennine Express and Merseyrail.
And the state wholly runs Greater Anglia, Cross Country, Arriva Trains Wales, Chiltern, Grand Central, East Coast
What is ludicrous at the moment is that the "state" is France, Germany and the Netherlands, with the British state barred from bidding. A state owned for profit enterprise clearly works as these other governments showed, as Royal Mail showed - the profits are returned to the state as the owner. Noone is proposing a resurrection of BR, just a level playing field.
"public ownership is bad" - in your opinion.
Other people differ
http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/customers-give-east-coast-top-satisfaction-rating-in-latest-survey/
http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/customers-give-east-coast-top-satisfaction-rating-in-latest-survey/
Completely off topic question to any photography experts on here.
When trying to take photos of lightning.
What is a good ISO to use, or is it just pot luck that the shutter is open when the lightning strikes?
http://digital-photography-school.com/how-to-photograph-lightning/
There should not be inpenatrable and deliberately confusing structures that no-one understands, and that privatised rail operators are allowed to advertise as cheap tickets despite it effectively being impossible for any working person who does not actually work for the rail company to get one.
Kings Cross to Edinburgh from* just £19.50
*from written in 2pt font. It is effectively impossible to buy this ticket, unless you want to travel to Edinburgh on a Tuesday lunchtime with three months' notice.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10972784/Chief-Whips-theyre-not-as-nice-as-they-look.html
In my experience their success is based on tailoring their approach to the individual. In 13 years I was only "menaced" once, even when I was occasionally voting the "wrong" way - a whip told me that if I didn't vote for a dodgy Bill he'd see I didn't get any front-bench visits. I laughed in his face (I wasn't getting them anyway) and next day the Chief Whip (Armstrong) apologised. If anyone had grabbed my balls as the article claims, I'd have gone straight to Blair and if necessary the press. But they had more luck by appealing to my loyalty and friendship, and in retrospect I was too pliable to that approach.
In another case, an MP's partner ran off with someone, leaving the MP to care for a disabled child. The whips said sympathetically that the MP should take as much time off voting as needed and forget about them while things were sorted out. Once things had indeed been sorted the grateful MP was fanatically loyal on absolutely everything.
None of these things should really matter, of course - MPs should only vote on the issues. But they're people, and understanding people is what being a whip is about.
I got one decent snap last night from by the office door, will post it up later once I can find my instagram password.
Services in the UK formerly run as DB Regio are now operated by a new subdivision of the company, Arriva UK Trains. Including Arriva Trains Wales, Cross Country Trains, and Chiltern Railways."
Wiki
Have a nice journey and enjoy your break sir.
Your point is?
East Coast is run by the British state. Are you trying to argue otherwise?
Try this - http://www.weatherscapes.com/techniques.php?cat=lightning&page=lightning
At any rate I'm on for a smallish stake @ 11-4, but DYOR.
Survation had it as part of their 4 commuter seat (RMT commissioned) polls which were pretty good for Labour too.
That's a very useful fact sheet.
Elections Etc @ElectionsEtc · 1h
NEW #GE2015 FORECAST: Tories back in front as slight favourites to win the most seats
http://wp.me/p4Be9H-53
There was massive growth in the shadow economy over New Labour's time i.e. people who were working and claiming dole on top, so it might be something to do with that. I don't work in the sort of areas it was happening any more so I don't know for sure.
Actually now i think of it working tax credits would obviously effect that if it was more than dole. It might have taken people a while to cotton on.
"It could have been a Liberal Democrat triumph, too, had Nick Clegg been minded to take credit for it. But he has decided that all of this is just too Tory for his grassroots to swallow. One of Clegg’s aides confesses that, given the popularity of welfare reform, the Deputy Prime Minister considered boasting about it on his leaflets – but his team decided that they couldn’t, because their activists would refuse to post them."
On the railways - what part of the rubbish 70's will the left want back next ?
3 Tv channels (66% state ownership) ? Means poor people can watch Premiership football and the cricket too - fairness hardwired in ?
Just as an anti-UKIP vote emerged at Newark,it could be that Labour is now finding a seam of support from those who may have voted UKIP recently and the "Vote Ukip,get Tory" message could just be working,especially amongst working class voters.It will be interesting to see if the polls support the UKIP-Lab switch.These are exactly the kind of largely elderly voters,who the likes of a Dennis Skinner could pull round in 30 seconds.
Dennis Skinner and his acolytes ought to have a major part to play in GE2015.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/na-classification/national-accounts-sector-classification/classification-of-network-rail-under-european-system-of-accounts-2010/art--classification-of-network-rail-under-european-system-of-accounts-2010.html#tab-Executive-Summary .
So it will have an accounting officer and be directly responsible to parliament and become within the scope of freedom of information requests. In addition DfT has announced that Network Rail will no longer borrow direct from the market but rather borrow from the treasury.
The interesting question becomes what should be the new purpose and object of the office of rail regulation - it is currently the health and safety regulation for railways; determines track access agreements for both passenger and freight operators; determines and monitors Network Rail targets based of a five year period, etc.
The first remains important. The second becomes more difficult if there are less non state operators. Freight operators are private, and there are non franchised operators as well (eg Hull trains). A railway line is a scarce resource and needs to be carefully managed. There are currently several applications for track access over the east coast line, only one of which is to be for the winner of the east coast franchise competition.
The third becomes odd though, what is the point of an independent regulator intervening between two state entities? It might suggest that one or both is unable to do their job properly?
Populus @PopulusPolls · 16s
New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2); Cons 35 (+1); LD 8 (-1); UKIP 14 (+2); Oth 8 (-) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140718
LD: 29 (23 – 36) 95% probability according to Dr Stephen Fisher
An UPPER bound of 36 seats at this point is incredibly bad news on a model such as this.
30% Con maj
26% Con largest
23% Lab largest
20% Lab maj
does seem to predicate a sore bum for the Prof on account of fence sitting !!
Get some bottom man .... nail it to the mast. Resist the wibbly wobberly. An ARSE must be pert, firm and not given to swinging every which way and loose.
Populus matching gold standard ICM apart from reversing Kippers and LDs.