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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: July 17th 2014

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  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Leominster South (Herefordshire): GRN GAIN from CON. via @britainelects

    Tories mananged to lose both Hereford seats, now that is plain sloppy.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    murali_s said:



    Tory two point lead -- this place goes mad with corks going off and much back slapping.

    .

    No it doesn't. compouter pretends that it does, and you believe him because you are - and I hope you will construe these words in the constructive spirit in which they are offered - barely literate and incapable of forming an independent opinion on anything.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Herefordshire Ledbury is an IOC gain from Con no figures
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ishmael_X said:

    murali_s said:



    Tory two point lead -- this place goes mad with corks going off and much back slapping.

    .

    No it doesn't. compouter pretends that it does, and you believe him because you are - and I hope you will construe these words in the constructive spirit in which they are offered - barely literate and incapable of forming an independent opinion on anything.
    Cheers for the mention Ash.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    edited July 2014

    Leominster South (Herefordshire): GRN GAIN from CON. via @britainelects

    Tories mananged to lose both Hereford seats, now that is plain sloppy.
    They've lost overall control as well. Is It's Our County inclined to work with them or with the centre-left?

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Ishmael_X said:

    murali_s said:



    Tory two point lead -- this place goes mad with corks going off and much back slapping.

    .

    No it doesn't. compouter pretends that it does, and you believe him because you are - and I hope you will construe these words in the constructive spirit in which they are offered - barely literate and incapable of forming an independent opinion on anything.
    Oh dear!....
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Herefordshire Ledbury is an IOC gain from Con no figures

    CON - 618
    UKIP - 166
    IOC - 835
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The Herefordshire results mean that Conservatives have lost control of the council

    Yeovil TC West ward was a LD hold
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Deep breath and relax, Scotland is on holiday.

    By my reckoning, the highest ever TNS score for yes was 39% in 2011 (when they had Yes ahead)

    Recent polling has had at them in the early 30s/high 20s so this could be a sensational poll.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited July 2014

    Leominster South (Herefordshire): GRN GAIN from CON. via @britainelects

    Tories mananged to lose both Hereford seats, now that is plain sloppy.
    They've lost overall control as well. Is It's Our County inclined to work with them or with the centre-left?

    Let's just say they are not in love with David Cameron or the Tories on council.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    It doesn´t look, from tonight´s results, that the Lib Dems are just lying down and rolling over, does it? Doing quite well so far.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Oban North & Lorn (Argyll & Bute): IND GAIN from SNP

    Bad result for YES only two month off IndyRef
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Meanwhile, high drama in the PB Diplomacy Deathmatch as everyone rounds on Germany:

    http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=79131

    I missed two turns early in this game, but have slithered off the bottom. Hard to tell if Turkey or Germany are ahead now.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.

    Is it?

    I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.

    That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
    The public aren't interested in a legit claim for paper clips, but they won't forget things like my local MP claiming .40p for a tin of dog food! not to mention her opposing HS2 while at he same time selling her cottage that is on the planned route ASAP.

    And now the revelations of politicians such as Cyril Smith and how other MP's helped cover it up, I'd suggest any problems politicians have with the media is of their own making.
    No - I think Mr Nabavi is right. The media are cr@p

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    CON GAIN from UKIP. Mabe, Perranarworthal & St Gluvias on Cornwall via @britainelects
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    By the way, not sure if this has already been mentioned but the Newark Advertiser now has a complete listing of the By-Election expenses for each party

    Conservatives: £96,190
    UKIP: £84,348
    Labour: £25,272
    Independent Paul Baggerly: £3,165
    Greens £581
    Lib Dems: £16,782
    Common Good: £235
    Patriotic Socialist Party: £320;
    Bus-Pass Elvis Party:£85.16;
    Independent Andy Hayes: £24;

    Nick "The Flying Brick" Delves, of the Monster Raving Loony Party, spent nothing.

    http://newarkadvertiser.co.uk/articles/news/Newark-by-election-What-did-the-candidates-b
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    PClipp said:

    It doesn´t look, from tonight´s results, that the Lib Dems are just lying down and rolling over, does it? Doing quite well so far.

    Not in Oxford, but they do quite well where they're in serious contention. Truly awful Tory results tonight though.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Oban North & Lorn (Argyll & Bute): IND GAIN from SNP

    Bad result for YES only two month off IndyRef

    As i posted earlier , the Oban SNP branch has a serious split and one of the Independents ( not the winner ) was an Independent Nationalist .
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    UKIP pushed to 3rd in Cornwall CC by-election. CON win by 1 vote
    CON 406
    LD 405
    UKIP 271
    LAB 107
    MK - 58
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    PClipp said:

    It doesn´t look, from tonight´s results, that the Lib Dems are just lying down and rolling over, does it? Doing quite well so far.

    Not in Oxford, but they do quite well where they're in serious contention. Truly awful Tory results tonight though.

    Including the Con gain from UKIP in Cornwall?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    murali_s said:



    Tory two point lead -- this place goes mad with corks going off and much back slapping.

    .

    No it doesn't. compouter pretends that it does, and you believe him because you are - and I hope you will construe these words in the constructive spirit in which they are offered - barely literate and incapable of forming an independent opinion on anything.
    Cheers for the mention Ash.
    We'll always have Sheffield.

    And don't call me Ash, Ash.

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Drat it! I thought the Lib Dems were going to take Mabe.

    Still, with the result last week, when the LDs took a seat from the Tories, it looks very encouraging for Julia Goldsworthy in Camborne next year. The local Lib Dem team does seem to be in good shape.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    PClipp said:

    It doesn´t look, from tonight´s results, that the Lib Dems are just lying down and rolling over, does it? Doing quite well so far.

    Not in Oxford, but they do quite well where they're in serious contention. Truly awful Tory results tonight though.

    Including the Con gain from UKIP in Cornwall?
    A 3% swing from Con to LD

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    PClipp said:

    Drat it! I thought the Lib Dems were going to take Mabe.

    Still, with the result last week, when the LDs took a seat from the Tories, it looks very encouraging for Julia Goldsworthy in Camborne next year. The local Lib Dem team does seem to be in good shape.

    I know John Ault (the LD candidate), he'll have a tight ship going down there.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Meanwhile, high drama in the PB Diplomacy Deathmatch as everyone rounds on Germany:

    http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=79131

    I missed two turns early in this game, but have slithered off the bottom. Hard to tell if Turkey or Germany are ahead now.

    Nasty shock for me. Brought me right down off the high of my solo in the other PB game.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    BobaFett said:

    @Flightpath

    The railway can't go bust anyway, hence the fundamental problem with rail privatisation, and why we have East Coast run by the state anyway! When the private sector cocks up, the state picks up the pieces.

    The railway operating company can go bust and another one can take its place. The railway operting companies invest in the business and pay for their franchise. The east coast line is nothing special from what I have read. A public company in a fair bidding process would have to spend considerable sums on the bids and have no guarantee of winning. Is that a good use of taxpayers money? Or do we think under labour the bidding process will be fair? Do we think under labour the public company will then be good value? East coast has benefited from being charged less by network rail. Do you really expect a level playing field for a private company under Labour?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited July 2014
    Oban South 1st preferences

    SNP 595
    Ind MacGregor 548
    Lab 526
    Con 445
    Ind Malloy 301

    MacGregor won from Lab 2nd and SNP 3rd after transfers
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    BobaFett said:

    @Flightpath

    The railway can't go bust anyway, hence the fundamental problem with rail privatisation, and why we have East Coast run by the state anyway! When the private sector cocks up, the state picks up the pieces.

    The railway operating company can go bust and another one can take its place. The railway operting companies invest in the business and pay for their franchise. The east coast line is nothing special from what I have read. A public company in a fair bidding process would have to spend considerable sums on the bids and have no guarantee of winning. Is that a good use of taxpayers money? Or do we think under labour the bidding process will be fair? Do we think under labour the public company will then be good value? East coast has benefited from being charged less by network rail. Do you really expect a level playing field for a private company under Labour?
    The East Coast line is far worse now than it was when it was in private hands. I actively avoid it if I can now.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Redditch is a Labour gain from UKIP No figures yet
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited July 2014

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 20s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 32%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%

    Holy hell, I thought Ed was supposed to be dropping in popularity at this point in the cycle !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Conservative majority still at 3.85 on Betfair

    UNBELIEVABLE JEFF !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Redditch is a Labour gain from UKIP No figures yet

    Ed is really crap !
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    BobaFett said:

    @Flightpath

    The railway can't go bust anyway, hence the fundamental problem with rail privatisation, and why we have East Coast run by the state anyway! When the private sector cocks up, the state picks up the pieces.

    The railway operating company can go bust and another one can take its place. The railway operting companies invest in the business and pay for their franchise. The east coast line is nothing special from what I have read. A public company in a fair bidding process would have to spend considerable sums on the bids and have no guarantee of winning. Is that a good use of taxpayers money? Or do we think under labour the bidding process will be fair? Do we think under labour the public company will then be good value? East coast has benefited from being charged less by network rail. Do you really expect a level playing field for a private company under Labour?
    If the public sector tenders, no private company will waste their time & resource on tendering as they will assume the outcome is fixed. So the public sector wins by default
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Dire results for the Conservatives in the by-elections tonight. Tricky to tell still Argyll !
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    SeanT said:

    Personally, my indyref nerves have subsided. I reckon Scots will vote fairly heavily for NO by about 57:43

    When this whole referendum thingy started, I thought it would be 72:28. The idea of it being "only" 57:43 still seems uncomfortably close, not "fairly heavily".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014
    It looks like some serious white wash has been purchased, but not sure it is going to work, because for all the haters Gove [eventually] did the right thing.

    Sir Ian Kershaw's report was ordered by Birmingham City Council after claims some Muslim groups were attempting to take control of a number of schools. It is understood to have found no evidence of a conspiracy.

    However, the Guardian claims a leaked draft of a government-commissioned report made for "damning" reading.

    The newspaper alleges the document, written by Peter Clarke - former head of the Metropolitan Police's counter-terrorism unit - found evidence of a "co-ordinated, deliberate and sustained action to introduce an intolerant and aggressive Islamist ethos into some schools in the city".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-28349706
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Clarke says: "There was never a serious attempt to see if there was a pattern to what was happening in school governing bodies. The council's approach has been variously described to me as appeasement and a failure in their duty of care towards their employees."

    With access to internal council correspondence, he said there was "incontrovertible evidence" that senior officials and elected members of Birmingham city council were aware of the practices set out in the Trojan Horse letter as early as 2012.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    JackW said:

    JohnLoony said:

    Eight Thousand, Five Hundred and Thirty-Seventh!

    Is that Peter Phillip's latest ranking in your male crumpet listing ?
    No! Peter Phillips is fourth, just below Iván García and just above Prince Louis of Luxembourg. WAAAAGH!
    How might we possibly know, you so rarely advise us of who's up and who's down.

    Perhaps you should issue a monthly top ten ?
    What do you mean, how might you know?
    (a) I tweet the statistics at the beginning of each month;
    (b) I publish the updated statistics for each 12-month period at the beginning of each month on my website.

    You're in luck, because it's not just the top ten; it's the whole 18. Just go to my website
    http://www.croydonloony.co.uk/
    and click on the link to the WAAAAGH page.
  • From Popbitch, apols if already posted.
    It's still political paedo season. This week's Sunday Mirror had "former Conservative Party activist" Anthony Gilberthorpe's claims he provided "child prostitutes for a sex and drugs party for top politicians". According to the paper, Gilberthorpe "decided to finally break his silence because he fears an Establishment cover-up".

    Well, perhaps. But Gilberthorpe was trying to sell the Mirror this story as far back as 1987. They didn't go for it then. Now, however, everyone named in it (Thatcher and four politicians) are all dead. And therefore can't sue for libel. Which may or may not have something to do with the change of heart.

    He might have been rebuffed in the 80s but Gilberthorpe had more fruitful dealings with the Sunday Mirror in the 90s. He was the bloke who set up the video-recorded sting to catch his friend Piers Merchant, the Tory MP who was having an affair with 18 year old "nightclub hostess", Anna Cox. According to press at the time, "a figure of around 25,000 pounds was negotiated."
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.

    Is it?

    I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.

    That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
    The public aren't interested in a legit claim for paper clips, but they won't forget things like my local MP claiming .40p for a tin of dog food! not to mention her opposing HS2 while at he same time selling her cottage that is on the planned route ASAP.

    And now the revelations of politicians such as Cyril Smith and how other MP's helped cover it up, I'd suggest any problems politicians have with the media is of their own making.
    Exactly. If politicians don't want to be all tarred with the same brush they should put some effort into making the brush smaller.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    One odd fact about Cyril Smith is that, IIRC, he was encouraged to stand in Rochdale in the 1970 election by Liberal Party HQ, over the head of the local party, who already had a candidate. Smith had been an active Liberal in the late 40's, then left to join Labour, with whom, after being Mayor of Rochdale, and a very high profile councillor, he fell out in 1968.
This discussion has been closed.