I agree, it's been a funny year poll wise, things will not settle down until after Conferences. My view, FWIW, is that Labour will poll around 34% at the GE, possibly enough to get most seats, but not enough for overall.
Seems a decent package. I'm not sure why Labour need to 'create' a public body that can run railways - the Coalition already have one. It's called Directly Operated Railways and is already running the East Coast franchise very well. There is no point creating another one.
I've said before that I hope the markets impose financial discipline if Labour can't or won't. That said, it won't all be desolation and a plague of frogs o'er the land when they are, inevitably, elected.
Keen schadenfreudists will particularly enjoy watching Harriet's head explode as Ed and his merry persons have to implement swingeing spending cuts.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Indeed. A result like that would be disastrous for Labour and the country.
Ed Milliband is already hated across the land, but he may claw his way into Downing St because people who came to expect a certain standard of living in the fake boom years and Labour's vast client state all expect the money tree to start flowing again.
Imagine the bitterness and recrimination Labour will be facing when things carry on pretty much as they have been in terms of juicy "give-aways" but with the added attraction of a government with no majority and a leader that seems utterly clueless (nonsense like rent controls and energy caps, etc...) in terms of what he wants to do.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest. The country may go through a spell of being pretty much ungovernable...
Will be great fun for political obsessives like us tho. #everycloudhasasilverlining
I've said before that I hope the markets impose financial discipline if Labour can't or won't. That said, it won't all be desolation and a plague of frogs o'er the land when they are, inevitably, elected.
Keen schadenfreudists will particularly enjoy watching Harriet's head explode as Ed and his merry persons have to implement swingeing spending cuts.
I look forward to the no doubt totally convincing arguments that Labour cuts are good, whereas Tory cuts are bad. It's not necessarily impossible for it to be true, but given you can only cut so much before you have to take it from the biggest areas of expenditure where those opposing austerity want there to be no cuts at all, I don't think they have the miracle workers to make it happen, but they will still need to claim they are.
I will also look forward to Labour blaming the previous government for the bad things they will have to do, after criticizing the Tories for using the same tactic, while the Tories suddenly develop the same amnesia that everyone uses that excuse - true or not - that Labour has developed in the past 4 years by criticizing its use.
I've said before that I hope the markets impose financial discipline if Labour can't or won't. That said, it won't all be desolation and a plague of frogs o'er the land when they are, inevitably, elected.
Keen schadenfreudists will particularly enjoy watching Harriet's head explode as Ed and his merry persons have to implement swingeing spending cuts.
Should be fun on PB when all the labour supporters come on here to defend them after all the crap this government as taken ;-)
Beautiful, beautiful night in London. Hot, dulcet, evocative, steamy, timeless, everyone fornicating in the parks like life is about to end. Like Paris in 1940, only much, much nobler.
My other major football bet for next season (Look away now St John)
I've heavily backed Aston Villa to go down
They were shite last year (except for the first 35 mins at Anfield)
They have an owner that is wanting to sell up and not put in any money, they have an uninspiring manager, and a poor squad with only one decent player who has suffered a serious injury and won't be fit until October at the earliest.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
I've said before that I hope the markets impose financial discipline if Labour can't or won't. That said, it won't all be desolation and a plague of frogs o'er the land when they are, inevitably, elected.
Keen schadenfreudists will particularly enjoy watching Harriet's head explode as Ed and his merry persons have to implement swingeing spending cuts.
Should be fun on PB when all the labour supporters come on here to defend them after all the crap this government as taken ;-)
Can't wait. ;-)
Tin hats at the ready. Maybe we can make them out of all the broken election prediction systems that will be scattered to the winds if "Labour gets in".
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ok, the curse of my tips is back (this chap is very well connected to Liverpool)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ? Cam's babes costing him votes or was the public reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
I don't even want Labour to get in, but I do enjoy those occasions where people console themselves that even if Labour get in, well, at least 2020 will be a locked in Tory win (as Labour ruin things/Tories transform into UKIP). Still a rarity to see it though.
Supposedly Mervyn King commented that whoever won in 2010 would lose the next election due to the cuts that would be needed, so I imagine there were many in Labour in the 'good one to lose' camp, but it turns out they may actually have been right in this case.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ed's ratings are at minus 33, Clegg's at minus 42, Dave's at minus 19 and Farage is at minus 7
My other major football bet for next season (Look away now St John)
I've heavily backed Aston Villa to go down
They were shite last year (except for the first 35 mins at Anfield)
They have an owner that is wanting to sell up and not put in any money, they have an uninspiring manager, and a poor squad with only one decent player who has suffered a serious injury and won't be fit until October at the earliest.
This sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Swansea relegation 11/2 humongous
Agree that's a good price. The only ones below them in the betting that I think will stay up are Hull and QPR, would like to see Burnley stay up as I really like Sean Dyche.
Beautiful, beautiful night in London. Hot, dulcet, evocative, steamy, timeless, everyone fornicating in the parks like life is about to end. Like Paris in 1940, only much, much nobler.
"We'll always have Paris"
My experience tonight of our nation's fair capital was somewhat less romantic than that of @SeanT
Ok, the curse of my tips is back (this chap is very well connected to Liverpool)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
More strikers? Have they actually bought any defenders or a new goalkeeper yet, that's where the biggest area of concern was, even with the need to replace Suarez.
My other major football bet for next season (Look away now St John)
I've heavily backed Aston Villa to go down
They were shite last year (except for the first 35 mins at Anfield)
They have an owner that is wanting to sell up and not put in any money, they have an uninspiring manager, and a poor squad with only one decent player who has suffered a serious injury and won't be fit until October at the earliest.
This sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Swansea relegation 11/2 humongous
That looks a very tasty bet. Thanks for the tip @Isam
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ! Cam's babes costing him votes or is it the public was reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
You have a point there,the news coverage of camerons reshuffle just became a p!ss take on the news channels.
Ok, the curse of my tips is back (this chap is very well connected to Liverpool)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
More strikers? Have they actually bought any defenders or a new goalkeeper yet, that's where the biggest area of concern was, even with the need to replace Suarez.
From what I've read and heard, we're trying to sign Lovren from Southampton, is just the fee that needs agreeing and the left back from Swansea, whose name escapes me.
' "Simply accepting the status quo is not an option for Labour. But nor is a throw-back to the days of British Rail.''
Labour want to nationalize the railways but not like British Rail.
Either completely naive or just clowns.
Sounds like another vote winner to me. People don't like the railway system at present. Promise to change it, and even if it makes little sense plenty of people will consider it cannot get worse and it will add to their reasons to vote Labour. Even if they are wrong and it does make it worse, by then it is too late, Labour are in power, and they'll assume they can figure out a solution.
My as-yet-unsettled position is that Ed Miliband will be PM in 2015, probably with a very small majority but possibly in Coalition. And the only relevant bets I have are to that effect.
I also believe he will be catastrophically inept, like Hollande, and will be turfed out ASAP, resulting in a surprisingly hardcore rightwing Tory/UKIP Coalition, which might then lead us out of the EU.
This is not, btw, necessarily an outcome I desire. Just feel it in me waters. The world is swinging right, as ruthless capitalism rampages and destroys all inferior systems.
I can see the Labour side of your prediction being right, but I can't see a Tory/UKIP coalition because I don't believe UKIP will ever get more than one or two seats and that's being generous (I could easily see them having a big, fate 0 in 2015)
My as-yet-unsettled position is that Ed Miliband will be PM in 2015, probably with a very small majority but possibly in Coalition. And the only relevant bets I have are to that effect.
I also believe he will be catastrophically inept, like Hollande, and will be turfed out ASAP, resulting in a surprisingly hardcore rightwing Tory/UKIP Coalition, which might then lead us out of the EU.
This is not, btw, necessarily an outcome I desire. Just feel it in me waters. The world is swinging right, as ruthless capitalism rampages and destroys all inferior systems.
As yet unsettled? So right now it's a settled position, but you're expecting something to upset it?
Ok, the curse of my tips is back (this chap is very well connected to Liverpool)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
More strikers? Have they actually bought any defenders or a new goalkeeper yet, that's where the biggest area of concern was, even with the need to replace Suarez.
From what I've read and heard, we're trying to sign Lovren from Southampton, is just the fee that needs agreeing and the left back from Swansea, whose name escapes me.
Ben Davies, also interested in Ryan Bertrand from Chelsea. Liverpool need a whole new back four as the incumbents, with the possible exception of Skrtel, have no idea how to defend.
My other major football bet for next season (Look away now St John)
I've heavily backed Aston Villa to go down
They were shite last year (except for the first 35 mins at Anfield)
They have an owner that is wanting to sell up and not put in any money, they have an uninspiring manager, and a poor squad with only one decent player who has suffered a serious injury and won't be fit until October at the earliest.
This sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Swansea relegation 11/2 humongous
That looks a very tasty bet. Thanks for the tip @Isam
If you saw my earlier post, you would see that is my opinion FWIW that Swansea will stay up. As. Cardiff supporter I had just one year to experience the Prem first hand, and there are some pretty awful teams in there, and Swansea, who do not have to sell Bony, or anyone rose are good enough to stay up. Last year they were distracted by the Europa league and they will not have that this coming season.
' "Simply accepting the status quo is not an option for Labour. But nor is a throw-back to the days of British Rail.''
Labour want to nationalize the railways but not like British Rail.
Either completely naive or just clowns.
Did you read the story?
They are simply allowing public bodies to run franchises, a situation that already exists and works well on the East Coast Line, and throughout London. We also have state-run franchisees - from France and Germany.
Ok, the curse of my tips is back (this chap is very well connected to Liverpool)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
More strikers? Have they actually bought any defenders or a new goalkeeper yet, that's where the biggest area of concern was, even with the need to replace Suarez.
From what I've read and heard, we're trying to sign Lovren from Southampton, is just the fee that needs agreeing and the left back from Swansea, whose name escapes me.
Ben Davies, also interested in Ryan Bertrand from Chelsea. Liverpool need a whole new back four as the incumbents, with the possible exception of Skrtel, have no idea how to defend.
Even Skrtel only worked when he stopped rugby tackling people. How we avoided giving away numerous penalties all season I do not know (he did get a bit better as the year went on). At least he scored goals as well.
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ! Cam's babes costing him votes or is it the public was reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
You have a point there,the news coverage of camerons reshuffle just became a p!ss take on the news channels.
I honestly thought sacking Gove was a masterstroke, and said so on here.
Not the first time my predictions about Tory politics have been wildly wrong.
I lost my shirt backing them for a majority in 2010.
' "Simply accepting the status quo is not an option for Labour. But nor is a throw-back to the days of British Rail.''
Labour want to nationalize the railways but not like British Rail.
Either completely naive or just clowns.
Sounds like another vote winner to me. People don't like the railway system at present. Promise to change it, and even if it makes little sense plenty of people will consider it cannot get worse and it will add to their reasons to vote Labour. Even if they are wrong and it does make it worse, by then it is too late, Labour are in power, and they'll assume they can figure out a solution.
Maybe Ed is not so Crap after all ! He chooses his fights carefully.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ed's ratings are at minus 33, Clegg's at minus 42, Dave's at minus 19 and Farage is at minus 7
It's a race to the bottom.
They are all crap.
Except for Nige whom I told polls even more 'weird' than Ed!
Beautiful, beautiful night in London. Hot, dulcet, evocative, steamy, timeless, everyone fornicating in the parks like life is about to end. Like Paris in 1940, only much, much nobler.
"We'll always have Paris"
My experience tonight of our nation's fair capital was somewhat less romantic than that of @SeanT
I was in B&Q.
You shouldn't be in dreary B&Q on a wonderful night like this.
Large G&T's in the garden, taking in the steamy summer air or frolicking in parks like it's the final days of the Roman Empire is what you should be doing.
' "Simply accepting the status quo is not an option for Labour. But nor is a throw-back to the days of British Rail.''
Labour want to nationalize the railways but not like British Rail.
Either completely naive or just clowns.
Sounds like another vote winner to me. People don't like the railway system at present. Promise to change it, and even if it makes little sense plenty of people will consider it cannot get worse and it will add to their reasons to vote Labour. Even if they are wrong and it does make it worse, by then it is too late, Labour are in power, and they'll assume they can figure out a solution.
Maybe Ed is not so Crap after all ! He chooses his fights carefully.
Ok, the curse of my tips is back (this chap is very well connected to Liverpool)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
More strikers? Have they actually bought any defenders or a new goalkeeper yet, that's where the biggest area of concern was, even with the need to replace Suarez.
From what I've read and heard, we're trying to sign Lovren from Southampton, is just the fee that needs agreeing and the left back from Swansea, whose name escapes me.
Ben Davies, also interested in Ryan Bertrand from Chelsea. Liverpool need a whole new back four as the incumbents, with the possible exception of Skrtel, have no idea how to defend.
Even Skrtel only worked when he stopped rugby tackling people. How we avoided giving away numerous penalties all season I do not know (he did get a bit better as the year went on). At least he scored goals as well.
He was a danger in both penalty areas! Also don't think the keeper is top,level, 5th or 6th for Liverpool next season in my book.
My as-yet-unsettled position is that Ed Miliband will be PM in 2015, probably with a very small majority but possibly in Coalition. And the only relevant bets I have are to that effect.
I also believe he will be catastrophically inept, like Hollande, and will be turfed out ASAP, resulting in a surprisingly hardcore rightwing Tory/UKIP Coalition, which might then lead us out of the EU.
This is not, btw, necessarily an outcome I desire. Just feel it in me waters. The world is swinging right, as ruthless capitalism rampages and destroys all inferior systems.
You are a converted Europhile and have moved strongly to the left in recent times Sean, as your posts demonstrate. Why do you think the world is moving in the opposite direction to you? Is it a simple case of your having too many hot nights with hot London lefties?
' "Simply accepting the status quo is not an option for Labour. But nor is a throw-back to the days of British Rail.''
Labour want to nationalize the railways but not like British Rail.
Either completely naive or just clowns.
Sounds like another vote winner to me. People don't like the railway system at present. Promise to change it, and even if it makes little sense plenty of people will consider it cannot get worse and it will add to their reasons to vote Labour. Even if they are wrong and it does make it worse, by then it is too late, Labour are in power, and they'll assume they can figure out a solution.
Maybe Ed is not so Crap after all ! He chooses his fights carefully.
He's generally uninspiring, but he also seems very cautious most of the time to avoid pitfalls, with the occasional big announcement that might well be nonsense in terms of implementation for all I know, but seem pretty popular with the public, and fix the idea of Labour with popular moves. It seems an effective approach - avoiding missteps and allowing his opponents to destroy themselves,not going for the big win, but for the small win which is more achievable. I only wish I'd had the guts to put money on a Labour win years ago, as I thought the odds were in their favour even when the Tories held a lead.
POLL: Looking forward to new opinion poll out tomorrow - #Yes at highest level yet in a TNS #indyref survey. #voteYes @tnsbmrb
Potentially worrying, but of course it ignores where NO is. If NO is also increased, then we are status quo ante, and the Nats are headed for a whopping defeat.
We shall see.
Personally, my indyref nerves have subsided. I reckon Scots will vote fairly heavily for NO by about 57:43
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ed's ratings are at minus 33, Clegg's at minus 42, Dave's at minus 19 and Farage is at minus 7
It's a race to the bottom.
They are all crap.
Except for Nige whom I told polls even more 'weird' than Ed!
As Sir Bob Worcestor said, prior to election time, to get the a more accurate picture you shouldn't compare the leaders with each other, but with their predecessors in the role in the equivalent point in the electoral cycle.
So Dave is about average compared to past PMs, and Ed well, only Michael Foot is worse as LOTO
154 Dutch nationals on plane rather than the 20 reported earlier.
The Dutch aren't going to sit around and do nothing - too many voices at home clamouring for action. Expect Western aircraft above Ukraine pretty smartish, and ones prepared to shoot.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ed's ratings are at minus 33, Clegg's at minus 42, Dave's at minus 19 and Farage is at minus 7
It's a race to the bottom.
They are all crap.
Except for Nige whom I told polls even more 'weird' than Ed!
As Sir Bob Worcestor said, prior to election time, to get the a more accurate picture you shouldn't compare the leaders with each other, but with their predecessors in the role in the equivalent point in the electoral cycle.
So Dave is about average compared to past PMs, and Ed well, only Michael Foot is worse as LOTO
I'm forecasting Tories most seats remember.
That said I forecast a Tory majority last time and lost my shirt so I wouldn't take any comfort in that.
I am going to Hoylake tomorrow could we arrange a PB meeting in the bunker. Apparently the Greens are up to 18
Enjoy it. Should be a great day's golf in the sunshine and with plenty of big names in the frame. I fancy Woods to score well tomorrow. He recovered very well today.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ed's ratings are at minus 33, Clegg's at minus 42, Dave's at minus 19 and Farage is at minus 7
It's a race to the bottom.
They are all crap.
Except for Nige whom I told polls even more 'weird' than Ed!
So Dave is about average compared to past PMs, and Ed well, only Michael Foot is worse as LOTO
Perhaps we're actually going to see what would have happened had Michael Foot became PM?
Wow, BBC documentary on Romanian immigration has a guy that has recruited 4000 Romanians to drive taxis in the UK in just four years.
The one man invasion was a classic.
As they're reporting, it was one man on a plane, because a whole load had been coming on buses before January 1 other the transitional arrangements.
I know, but the fact there was what, thirty press at the airport and one person trundled through, only to be targeted by The Mail only days later was quite funny, no? Apparently he beat his girlfriend up in Romania, attacked nuns and gave out duff tips on PB.
Beautiful, beautiful night in London. Hot, dulcet, evocative, steamy, timeless, everyone fornicating in the parks like life is about to end. Like Paris in 1940, only much, much nobler.
"We'll always have Paris"
My experience tonight of our nation's fair capital was somewhat less romantic than that of @SeanT
I was in B&Q.
You shouldn't be in dreary B&Q on a wonderful night like this.
Large G&T's in the garden, taking in the steamy summer air or frolicking in parks like it's the final days of the Roman Empire is what you should be doing.
I was only in there for half an hour. Two G&Ts down, now on the red wine ;-)
Whitehall source points to intercepted evidence suggesting Russian separatists to blame. Expects 'co-ordinated international response' #MH17
Deny them their right to self determination, shell and drop bombs on civilian areas? No wait our chums in Kiev already do that.
Some lives are more precious than others.
If they want self-determination then they can go about it through democratic channels. But they haven't because they're Ukrainian and don't want to leave Ukraine.
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ! Cam's babes costing him votes or is it the public was reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
You have a point there,the news coverage of camerons reshuffle just became a p!ss take on the news channels.
Reshuffles usually go wrong, because the media only like negative stories. Can you imagine an interview with a new minister: "I'm so happy and excited to have this opportunity"? Much sexier to talk to grouchy Friends of Ex-Minister about the terrible blunder in removing him.
It's a subset of a more general problem in how politics is covered in Britain.
When will Labour start hitting the panic button that they may actually have to govern for five years with a leader that's despised before he's even done anything and without any money to doll out to Unions and their client voters?
What a Parliament the 2015 to 2020 one could be!
2015-20 could indeed be very messy, particularly if there is a hung parliament despite the dramatically reduced LD contingent. Say the Big 2 reverse their seat positions (so Lab 305, Con 255) but unlike 2010 there are only 30 LDs*. Instead of a coalition with a fairly healthy majority, we'd be left with either a minority administration or very fragile coalition government.
Could be much more difficult than 2010-15 turned out to be, despite initial concerns. And I don't think those seat totals are particularly implausible.
*OK, so because of the fewer LDs let's say it's 315/280 for the Big 2. The overall scenario still stands.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
Aren't his satisfaction ratings already at Cleggian levels?
Ed's ratings are at minus 33, Clegg's at minus 42, Dave's at minus 19 and Farage is at minus 7
It's a race to the bottom.
They are all crap.
Except for Nige whom I told polls even more 'weird' than Ed!
So Dave is about average compared to past PMs, and Ed well, only Michael Foot is worse as LOTO
Perhaps we're actually going to see what would have happened had Michael Foot became PM?
Should be interesting. As Foot was before my time, the horror stories about him have little impact, so it'll be good to get a contemporary Foot for my generation to lament about in years to come.
Should be interesting. As Foot was before my time, the horror stories about him have little impact, so it'll be good to get a contemporary Foot for my generation to lament about in years to come.
I think you'll find it's a lesson best learnt in a simulator rather than in real life.
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% leade LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ! Cam's babes costing him votes or is it the public was reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
You have a point there,the news coverage of camerons reshuffle just became a p!ss take on the news channels.
Reshuffles usually go wrong, because the media only like negative stories. Can you imagine an interview with a new minister: "I'm so happy and excited to have this opportunity"? Much sexier to talk to grouchy Friends of Ex-Minister about the terrible blunder in removing him.
It's a subset of a more general problem in how politics is covered in Britain.
I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ! Cam's babes costing him votes or is it the public was reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
You have a point there,the news coverage of camerons reshuffle just became a p!ss take on the news channels.
Reshuffles usually go wrong, because the media only like negative stories. Can you imagine an interview with a new minister: "I'm so happy and excited to have this opportunity"? Much sexier to talk to grouchy Friends of Ex-Minister about the terrible blunder in removing him.
It's a subset of a more general problem in how politics is covered in Britain.
Both you and Tykejonno are right. The media do the easy thing and just want an easy hook to hang their story on. The media also have a vested interest in running a govt down since they want a weak govt not able to make them obey the law.
Should be interesting. As Foot was before my time, the horror stories about him have little impact, so it'll be good to get a contemporary Foot for my generation to lament about in years to come.
I think you'll find it's a lesson best learnt in a simulator rather than in real life.
You're probably right, but as much as Blair in particular may live in infamy for certain things, the younger generations cannot live in fear of a new Thatcher or Foot forever, they need their own great and/or terrible to rally against/for or like me, the prospect of a Foot but in power will not stir appropriate dread.
The final YouGov/Sun poll of the week has LAB with 7% lead LAB - 39% (+3) CON - 32% (-1) LD- 8 (-1) UKIP - 13% (=)
Aren't the British people watching PMQ's every Wednesday when I am told EiC is getting drubbed ! Cam's babes costing him votes or is it the public was reminded yet again that toxic Gove is a Tory !!
You have a point there,the news coverage of camerons reshuffle just became a p!ss take on the news channels.
Reshuffles usually go wrong, because the media only like negative stories. Can you imagine an interview with a new minister: "I'm so happy and excited to have this opportunity"? Much sexier to talk to grouchy Friends of Ex-Minister about the terrible blunder in removing him.
It's a subset of a more general problem in how politics is covered in Britain.
Both you and Tykejonno are right. The media do the easy thing and just want an easy hook to hang their story on. The media also have a vested interest in running a govt down since they want a weak govt not able to make them obey the law.
Seems a decent package. I'm not sure why Labour need to 'create' a public body that can run railways - the Coalition already have one. It's called Directly Operated Railways and is already running the East Coast franchise very well. There is no point creating another one.
The problem with creating a public nationalised company to bid for rail franchises is that it costs a lot of money to put in a bid. It could be spending public money and not getting any work. Of course I suppose a nationalised company will just pluck a figure off the back of an envelope (a bit like labour with their policies) since it cannot go bust like a public one and the taxpayer will cover the losses. What could possibly go wrong? From what I read the 'success' of the east Coast Line is overstated.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 32%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
Very disappointing for Dave & Co. on the back of the reshuffle, but probably too late to impact on Prof. Stephen Fisher's weekly GE seats projection tomorrow.
Wow, BBC documentary on Romanian immigration has a guy that has recruited 4000 Romanians to drive taxis in the UK in just four years.
The one man invasion was a classic.
As they're reporting, it was one man on a plane, because a whole load had been coming on buses before January 1 under the transitional arrangements.
I have yet to see a Big Issue seller in Eastbourne who isn't from Romania. The hotel cleaners also appear to be largely Romanian. It's very noticeable. It's common to hear a multitude of foreign languages spoken just walking down the street even in the off-season. How things change in a decade.
The railway can't go bust anyway, hence the fundamental problem with rail privatisation, and why we have East Coast run by the state anyway! When the private sector cocks up, the state picks up the pieces.
Result from Cowley in Oxford: Lab 512 Green 269 Independent 257 Con 152 UKIP 72 LD 39
Labour hold.
Very like the 2014 result for Labour and Greens - quite good turnout for a by-election. Tories halved and LibDems down by two thirds, though, and overtaken by an independent.
Are we going to have this childish and unwarranted trolling from the Labour tag team on here every time the Labour lead goes up in a YouGov poll? It was quiet on here before the YouGov poll tonight, you could have added so much more to the debate by turning up then and contributing something more interesting.
My as-yet-unsettled position is that Ed Miliband will be PM in 2015, probably with a very small majority but possibly in Coalition. And the only relevant bets I have are to that effect.
I also believe he will be catastrophically inept, like Hollande, and will be turfed out ASAP, resulting in a surprisingly hardcore rightwing Tory/UKIP Coalition, which might then lead us out of the EU.
This is not, btw, necessarily an outcome I desire. Just feel it in me waters. The world is swinging right, as ruthless capitalism rampages and destroys all inferior systems.
I can see the Labour side of your prediction being right, but I can't see a Tory/UKIP coalition because I don't believe UKIP will ever get more than one or two seats and that's being generous (I could easily see them having a big, fate 0 in 2015)
His is an absurd projection at every level. Just who would want a coalition with UKIP? As you say they are not likely to have any seats and UKIP are full of toxic baggage. If you want to alienate 70 % of the country go into coalition with UKIP.
I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.
Is it?
I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.
That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.
Is it?
I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.
That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
Are we going to have this childish and unwarranted trolling from the Labour tag team on here every time the Labour lead goes up in a YouGov poll? It was quiet on here before the YouGov poll tonight, you could have added so much more to the debate by turning up then and contributing something more interesting.
Are we going to have this childish and unwarranted trolling from the Labour tag team on here every time the Labour lead goes up in a YouGov poll? It was quiet on here before the YouGov poll tonight, you could have added so much more to the debate by turning up then and contributing something more interesting.
Gin1138 says -- 'Could easily see Ed Miliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest.
But Ed would inherit a soundly run economy with good levels of growth. We have seen this before with Blair - it takes a while to undermine a golden tory legacy. Meantime Labour will continue to gerrymander the electoral arithmetic and demographic. Its a bad move to think 'oh we will be back in a couple of years'.
I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.
Is it?
I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.
That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
The public aren't interested in a legit claim for paper clips, but they won't forget things like my local MP claiming .40p for a tin of dog food! not to mention her opposing HS2 while at he same time selling her cottage that is on the planned route ASAP.
And now the revelations of politicians such as Cyril Smith and how other MP's helped cover it up, I'd suggest any problems politicians have with the media is of their own making.
Result from Cowley in Oxford: Lab 512 Green 269 Independent 257 Con 152 UKIP 72 LD 39
Labour hold.
Very like the 2014 result for Labour and Greens - quite good turnout for a by-election. Tories halved and LibDems down by two thirds, though, and overtaken by an independent.
Welcome aboard RedStar, by the way.
Thank you kindly. Labour share is pretty much the same, Green up a bit and the 'keep the local pool open' independent down a bit. LD share was 3% - in a ward they won in 2006.
I think you'll find that's the fault of the politicians.
Is it?
I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.
That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
Excellent post Richard. Agreed.
Exactly.
Incidentally, that's a remarkable Green result in Leominster. Because Greens are usually bad news for Labour, the Tories probably don't mind that much.
Comments
Seems a decent package. I'm not sure why Labour need to 'create' a public body that can run railways - the Coalition already have one. It's called Directly Operated Railways and is already running the East Coast franchise very well. There is no point creating another one.
Keen schadenfreudists will particularly enjoy watching Harriet's head explode as Ed and his merry persons have to implement swingeing spending cuts.
Ed Milliband is already hated across the land, but he may claw his way into Downing St because people who came to expect a certain standard of living in the fake boom years and Labour's vast client state all expect the money tree to start flowing again.
Imagine the bitterness and recrimination Labour will be facing when things carry on pretty much as they have been in terms of juicy "give-aways" but with the added attraction of a government with no majority and a leader that seems utterly clueless (nonsense like rent controls and energy caps, etc...) in terms of what he wants to do.
Could easily see Ed Milliband sinking to Nick Clegg levels of hate within a couple of years to be honest. The country may go through a spell of being pretty much ungovernable...
Will be great fun for political obsessives like us tho. #everycloudhasasilverlining
I will also look forward to Labour blaming the previous government for the bad things they will have to do, after criticizing the Tories for using the same tactic, while the Tories suddenly develop the same amnesia that everyone uses that excuse - true or not - that Labour has developed in the past 4 years by criticizing its use.
Can't wait. ;-)
Liverpool are in the market for another striker and are keen on Queens Park Rangers' Loic Remy, who has a £8million release clause in his contract.
The France international, who scored 14 goals on loan at Newcastle United last season, has emerged as a serious target after the Reds opted not to follow up their initial interest in Swansea City frontman Wilfried Bony.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-fc-brendan-rodgers-vows-7449882
Supposedly Mervyn King commented that whoever won in 2010 would lose the next election due to the cuts that would be needed, so I imagine there were many in Labour in the 'good one to lose' camp, but it turns out they may actually have been right in this case.
I was in B&Q.
' "Simply accepting the status quo is not an option for Labour. But nor is a throw-back to the days of British Rail.''
Labour want to nationalize the railways but not like British Rail.
Either completely naive or just clowns.
POLL: Looking forward to new opinion poll out tomorrow - #Yes at highest level yet in a TNS #indyref survey. #voteYes @tnsbmrb
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 2m
Whitehall source points to intercepted evidence suggesting Russian separatists to blame. Expects 'co-ordinated international response' #MH17
They are simply allowing public bodies to run franchises, a situation that already exists and works well on the East Coast Line, and throughout London. We also have state-run franchisees - from France and Germany.
Recent polling has had at them in the early 30s/high 20s so this could be a sensational poll.
Not the first time my predictions about Tory politics have been wildly wrong.
I lost my shirt backing them for a majority in 2010.
They are all crap.
Except for Nige whom I told polls even more 'weird' than Ed!
Large G&T's in the garden, taking in the steamy summer air or frolicking in parks like it's the final days of the Roman Empire is what you should be doing.
So Dave is about average compared to past PMs, and Ed well, only Michael Foot is worse as LOTO
That said I forecast a Tory majority last time and lost my shirt so I wouldn't take any comfort in that.
Some lives are more precious than others.
It's a subset of a more general problem in how politics is covered in Britain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=768h3Tz4Qik
LD 886
CON -51
UKIP 206
LAB 71
Tory two point lead -- this place goes mad with corks going off and much back slapping.
Says it all about this place - has been and always will be a Tory hangout (including the numerous Tory trolls).
Who would have expected the Tories to beat them to the punch?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bsx1KjWIQAEkZ0h.jpg
Lab 512
Green 269
Independent 257
Con 152
UKIP 72
LD 39
Labour hold.
Of course I suppose a nationalised company will just pluck a figure off the back of an envelope (a bit like labour with their policies) since it cannot go bust like a public one and the taxpayer will cover the losses. What could possibly go wrong?
From what I read the 'success' of the east Coast Line is overstated.
The railway can't go bust anyway, hence the fundamental problem with rail privatisation, and why we have East Coast run by the state anyway! When the private sector cocks up, the state picks up the pieces.
Welcome aboard RedStar, by the way.
Lab 659
Independent 373
Green 268
Con 186
LD 142
I was talking to an MP today. The local paper had rung him up for a comment on a story they were going to run: 'MP Claims 17p For Paperclips'. Of course it was a perfectly legit claim for a whole load of stationery ordered by his office, but nowadays everything has to be itemised down to the individual item. He pointed this out, and so they ran the story under the headline 'MP Denies Claiming 17p for Paperclips', with a copy of the claim so as to make him look a liar. No doubt they had an alternative headline ready: 'MP Admits Claiming 17p for Paperclips'.
That ain't the fault of politicians, it's the fault of the media, and it is driving good MPs to leave. Why take all this crap?
But Ed would inherit a soundly run economy with good levels of growth. We have seen this before with Blair - it takes a while to undermine a golden tory legacy. Meantime Labour will continue to gerrymander the electoral arithmetic and demographic.
Its a bad move to think 'oh we will be back in a couple of years'.
LD 741
Con 326
UKIP 184
The Conservative figure in Harrogate was 551
And now the revelations of politicians such as Cyril Smith and how other MP's helped cover it up, I'd suggest any problems politicians have with the media is of their own making.
Incidentally, that's a remarkable Green result in Leominster. Because Greens are usually bad news for Labour, the Tories probably don't mind that much.