Is it possible that the public may view Camerons new team as inexperienced and any gain they may get from having more women will be negated ?
We will all have seen pollsters/journos ask people to identify politicians and most people don't seem to recognise many. Is it wise to change your team to less well known people, ten months before an election ?
Its also possible that an increase in the no of women will affect the female vote positively
I would think that Cameron promoting women will have a mixed response, as you would expect. Whilst it may be seen as good thing, people may think that Cameron is only doing this ten months before an election, because he thinks the Tories may get more votes. Personally, I am not sure that women will therefore see Camerons reshuffle as positive.
The women getting positions today are all 2010 intake ( I think). Going from new MP to minister in 4 years is about as fast as possible I'd think.
Might this be a good time to back Soubry to beat NP? 11/4 with Ladbrokes, only 9/4 with PP. If she does become Defence Secretary might that affect the betting?
Clearly her profile will rise considerably and broadly the punters initially enjoy their MP doing well. However it's not a panacea for an unpopular government as ministers found out in 1997.
Overall it's probably a marginal plus for her but of course she sits for a marginal seat.
Surely in the next 10 months she should be on the doorstep rather than in a ministerial car.
One doesn't totally preclude the other. Also her reach in Broxtowe is far greater appearing on the idiot box than a few hours canvassing.
Our own Nick Palmer is probably chewing a wasp this morning whilst clearly on a personal level congratulating her on the promotion.
I doubt it. Unless there is a war, the defence secretary is not a visible position. The few extra minutes she gains on the telly, will lose hours dealing with ministerial boxes, meetings and visits outside her constituency.
If she was MP for Aldershot, it might be different.
Nice pension though.
It would make it easier for her to find a safer seat for the next election, though.
Edit: And of course Ken Clarke has said he intends to remain as an active backbencher, but will he stand for election in 2020? He would be 80 in the year of a 2020 general election, and so Soubry could be well-placed to take over his seat, which borders Broxtowe.
Might this be a good time to back Soubry to beat NP? 11/4 with Ladbrokes, only 9/4 with PP. If she does become Defence Secretary might that affect the betting?
Clearly her profile will rise considerably and broadly the punters initially enjoy their MP doing well. However it's not a panacea for an unpopular government as ministers found out in 1997.
Overall it's probably a marginal plus for her but of course she sits for a marginal seat.
Surely in the next 10 months she should be on the doorstep rather than in a ministerial car.
One doesn't totally preclude the other. Also her reach in Broxtowe is far greater appearing on the idiot box than a few hours canvassing.
Our own Nick Palmer is probably chewing a wasp this morning whilst clearly on a personal level congratulating her on the promotion.
I am on record here last year saying Anna Soubry's majority will be in 4 figures next year. If as we expect she makes the cabinet today, she will have achieved in 4 years what NPXMP failed to do in 13 and constituents love their MP to be a cabinet minister because it means when they seek help against petty civil servants silly decisions, a letter from their MP carries a great deal of weight.
Nick Palmer has been overoptimistic in the past, but he clearly has a large personal vote, and it wouldn't take much of a pro-Labour swing for him to win.
Alan Duncan out? No tears from me for the rude and arrogant fellow. He should be the next one to step down in 2015. A nice safe seat for some other candidate who does not want to bother with constituency issues.
Is it possible that the public may view Camerons new team as inexperienced and any gain they may get from having more women will be negated ?
We will all have seen pollsters/journos ask people to identify politicians and most people don't seem to recognise many. Is it wise to change your team to less well known people, ten months before an election ?
Its also possible that an increase in the no of women will affect the female vote positively
I would think that Cameron promoting women will have a mixed response, as you would expect. Whilst it may be seen as good thing, people may think that Cameron is only doing this ten months before an election, because he thinks the Tories may get more votes. Personally, I am not sure that women will therefore see Camerons reshuffle as positive.
If it has an impact it will be at a subconscious level. Having more female voices on the TV and radio will have a cumulative background effect.
Also worth noting that women seem to be more likely to say that they don't know who they will vote for when you look at the opinion polls. This was by 14% - 12% in the latest Ashcroft poll, 26% - 12% in the latest Populus poll, 21% - 10% in the latest YouGov.
It would be interesting to know whether Cabinet ministers did better or worse than average in 1997 and/or 2010. My guess would be that the status, overall, made no difference.
My recollection is that it doesn't make a difference on average - presumably the higher profile is balanced by the perception of distance from the constituency. That applies even if the minister is part of an unpopular government (or a popular one, though those are rare species in recent years). I think the PM does better than average, though - e.g. Gordon got a positive 3.3% swing in 2010, but David Miliband got -6.4%.
A common perception locally is that AS is well-respected in Westminster but not that interested in local affairs. I'd expect both halves of that to be reinforced by a promotion and a neutral impact.
Soubry is smart, articulate and calls lefty BS out on telly when she appears. From Dave's perspective who cares if she loses in 2015? If NPXMP gets back in then probably the whole GE is Labour's anyway.
So who goes to education? I would have thought Truss but if she is going to DEFRA...
Maybe Liam Fox! More seriously, perhaps Nick Gibb
If Cam is clever he will do a deal with Nick and stick a Lib Dem in there to soak up the vitriol, in return for a Tory at Business etc
Yes, put Laws in. The problem then is that a Tory would either have to go to BIS and replace Vince or Energy. Can't see Vince being happy about stepping down.
So who goes to education? I would have thought Truss but if she is going to DEFRA...
Maybe Liam Fox! More seriously, perhaps Nick Gibb
If Cam is clever he will do a deal with Nick and stick a Lib Dem in there to soak up the vitriol, in return for a Tory at Business etc
Yes, put Laws in. The problem then is that a Tory would either have to go to BIS and replace Vince or Energy. Can't see Vince being happy about stepping down.
Vince can go hang. That's the point, Clegg slaps him down for pollgate
Soubry is smart, articulate and calls lefty BS out on telly when she appears. From Dave's perspective who cares if she loses in 2015? If NPXMP gets back in then probably the whole GE is Labour's anyway.
She insults UKIPpers well, too.
Nick Palmer could win, with the Tories comfortably remaining the largest party.
So who goes to education? I would have thought Truss but if she is going to DEFRA...
Maybe Liam Fox! More seriously, perhaps Nick Gibb
If Cam is clever he will do a deal with Nick and stick a Lib Dem in there to soak up the vitriol, in return for a Tory at Business etc
Yes, put Laws in. The problem then is that a Tory would either have to go to BIS and replace Vince or Energy. Can't see Vince being happy about stepping down.
The first thing a Lib Dem Education Secretary would do, I am sure, is to publish the figures showing the real cost to the taxpayer of Gove´s free school vanity project.
Might this be a good time to back Soubry to beat NP? 11/4 with Ladbrokes, only 9/4 with PP. If she does become Defence Secretary might that affect the betting?
Clearly her profile will rise considerably and broadly the punters initially enjoy their MP doing well. However it's not a panacea for an unpopular government as ministers found out in 1997.
Overall it's probably a marginal plus for her but of course she sits for a marginal seat.
Surely in the next 10 months she should be on the doorstep rather than in a ministerial car.
One doesn't totally preclude the other. Also her reach in Broxtowe is far greater appearing on the idiot box than a few hours canvassing.
Our own Nick Palmer is probably chewing a wasp this morning whilst clearly on a personal level congratulating her on the promotion.
I am on record here last year saying Anna Soubry's majority will be in 4 figures next year. If as we expect she makes the cabinet today, she will have achieved in 4 years what NPXMP failed to do in 13 and constituents love their MP to be a cabinet minister because it means when they seek help against petty civil servants silly decisions, a letter from their MP carries a great deal of weight.
That could be a plus for Nick P though. "If you elect me as your MP I, unlike Ms Soubry, will never get promoted so I'll have all my time for constituency matters, like I did between 1997 and 2010".
Gove has odious opinions on foreign policy and the Middle East, assume that's why the Murdoch press promoted him, good to see him go. Hague deserves to go over Syria, shame he had the potential to frame a non interventionist independent foreign policy, and a lot of noises he made initially indicated he would, but ultimately he just became a subordinate of the Americans.
Always figured Labour would poll 32 or 33 at a general election but looks like they are already at that level, if they don't arrest their relentless decline soon who knows where they will bottom out. Frankly I can see where the Conservatives will pick up votes but don't see where Labour will.
Gove has done his job though. He has spent four years battling for reform and taking bucketloads of shit from the teaching unions (I've seen the propaganda notes the NUT send out, it's laughable indoctrination) and now those reforms won't be reversed, because Labour largely supports them.
The NUT and teachers have played the man not the reforms and will lose anyway.
Job done.
I suspect Gove will have a big job in cabinet if the Tories win the next GE.
From a teamwork point of view (and with all egos placed to one side), top members of the Tory team like Gove, Hague etc, are pragmatic enough to realise that it is all about winning the next GE, not about personalities. Gove knows he was unpoular with teachers; moving from the role will probably help the team.
If the Tories lose the next GE they are all out of a job anyway. Taking 10 months out to mastermind a GE win seems absolutely sensible. The Hammond FCO role all looks to be part of the strategy. Not a long term role, but a purely political one: a Eurosceptic in the foreign office to win back votes from UKIP.
It all seems rational and good politics to me, because the reform part of governing is over; now is time for electioneering. Whether it works or not remains to be seen.
I thought Dave believed in what he was doing as Education Sec !
Everything Gove has done in Education has been done with Dave's approval and support, but after making himself toxic he get's the chop so somebody more palatable to teachers and 2010 Lib-Dems can take the plaudit's as his reforms start to come good.
Soubry is smart, articulate and calls lefty BS out on telly when she appears. From Dave's perspective who cares if she loses in 2015? If NPXMP gets back in then probably the whole GE is Labour's anyway.
She insults UKIPpers well, too.
Nick Palmer could win, with the Tories comfortably remaining the largest party.
Precisely the outcome presently forecast by my ARSE.
Morning all. Very disappointing to see Gove moved. In truth, the whole idea of a reshuffle this late in the day is also disappointing.
I'd already parted company with the conservatives; this just reaffirms that I've made the right choice. Still no idea who I shall vote for next year though.
"Nicky Morgan is the new Education Secretary and continues as Minister for Women and Equalities." Is she Equalities? I thought that was Javid?
Yes it was - Javid also became Minister for Culture Media & Sport in April - but it does seem a bit tokenistic to say "equalities? Give it to a woman"....
James Forsyth @JGForsyth 2m Am told that Michael Gove has been involved in the reshuffle discussions for the past 2 weeks, already doing Chief Whip job
Not the response of someone who'd been humiliated.
She'd get a lot more if I was PM. She's in the Brookes camp of megababes
She scrubs up quite well, I agree.
Of course none of this will make any difference on the ground in Scotland, where you PBers are just completely disconnected from real life and have no idea of what is being said at the real centre of the universe.
"Nicky Morgan is the new Education Secretary and continues as Minister for Women and Equalities." Is she Equalities? I thought that was Javid?
Yes it was - Javid also became Minister for Culture Media & Sport in April - but it does seem a bit tokenistic to say "equalities? Give it to a woman"....
Wasn't it a same-sex marriage thing that was the most poisonous? Perhaps she's changed her outlook.
The danger with what Cameron has done to Gove is that he looks like a duplicitous, spineless scum-bag who doesn't have the courage of his convictions to stand by his Ministers when they are doing the things he want's them to do!
But I think being a spineless, duplicitous scum-bag totally bereft of any conviction is factored in to Cameron's "story" anyway? I doubt you can get to Number Ten these day's without having these "qualities" LOL!
Have a seat, Michael. I was impressed with the work you have done in assisting with ideas on the reshuffle. I'm going ahead with them, with one exception.......
The danger with what Cameron has done to Gove is that he looks like a duplicitous, spineless scum-bag who doesn't have the courage of his convictions to stand by his Ministers when they are doing the things he want's them to do!
But I think being a spineless, duplicitous scum-bag totally bereft of any conviction is factored in to Cameron's "story" anyway? I doubt you can get to Number Ten these day's without having these "qualities" LOL!
I think it looks dreadful personally but maybe the public will like it...
Reshuffle Day - The Transfer Deadline Day for PB.com.
Wait till you see us on Indy referendum night.
I worry that will be a damp squib actually, if No is too far ahead come September. Good for Cameron to give us a much larger than expected reshuffle as a backup.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth 2m Am told that Michael Gove has been involved in the reshuffle discussions for the past 2 weeks, already doing Chief Whip job
Not the response of someone who'd been humiliated.
I think that's probably accurate though the Gove move is a bit of a surprise. But of course it also means that the near perfect Chancellor has two of his closest allies as Chief and Deputy Chief Whip assuming Greg Hands is not shifted.
"Nicky Morgan is the new Education Secretary and continues as Minister for Women and Equalities." Is she Equalities? I thought that was Javid?
Yes it was - Javid also became Minister for Culture Media & Sport in April - but it does seem a bit tokenistic to say "equalities? Give it to a woman"....
It's having a job called "Minister for Women and Equalities" at all that's tokenistic.
Have a seat, Michael. I was impressed with the work you have done in assisting with ideas on the reshuffle. I'm going ahead with them, with one exception.......
"A good Chief Whip's more valuable to me than a good Home Secretary, Francis."
Gove had one of the hardest jobs, in improving education and reversing a lot of educational theory and non-competition rubbish, in the face of so many sectors who had a vested interest in keeping in the status quo.
However, his job was made harder as he is an earnest but not very personable man in public life - his heavy glasses and lack of smiles made it difficult for people to relate to him favourably - even if they agreed with his educational direction. The constraints of time (5 years) and dissenting coalition partners made his job even more difficult.
Have a seat, Michael. I was impressed with the work you have done in assisting with ideas on the reshuffle. I'm going ahead with them, with one exception.......
"A good Chief Whip's more valuable to me than a good Home Secretary, Francis."
Now he's paying him to be a sh!t, he doesn't have to do it for free.
Reshuffle Day - The Transfer Deadline Day for PB.com.
Wait till you see us on Indy referendum night.
I worry that will be a damp squib actually, if No is too far ahead come September. Good for Cameron to give us a much larger than expected reshuffle as a backup.
Well I have some brilliant news about the Indyref.
I will be guest editing the site for a few weeks straight after the Indyref.
I imagine after some thorough initial probing you'd quickly establish a penetrating command of your brief and get right to the bottom of it. Or perhaps on top of it. Or you'd get your hands around it. Etc.
Nick Palmer has been overoptimistic in the past, but he clearly has a large personal vote, and it wouldn't take much of a pro-Labour swing for him to win.
The basic position is that I need an 0.5% swing and there is a 17% Libdem vote and as yet no LibDem candidate - there will be one in due course, but they're not going to make a serious effort (we are in coalition with them locally).
Comments
On the other hand agreeing with me 100% becomes addictive over the years.
Titter ....
The women getting positions today are all 2010 intake ( I think). Going from new MP to minister in 4 years is about as fast as possible I'd think.
He's the guy who hurled abuse at Tory MPs who voted against the Syria expedition
Also worth noting that women seem to be more likely to say that they don't know who they will vote for when you look at the opinion polls. This was by 14% - 12% in the latest Ashcroft poll, 26% - 12% in the latest Populus poll, 21% - 10% in the latest YouGov.
There are votes there to be won.
That'll teach him to be mean to Tess May
Politics. Bloody Hell.
A common perception locally is that AS is well-respected in Westminster but not that interested in local affairs. I'd expect both halves of that to be reinforced by a promotion and a neutral impact.
Have a wonderful day, SO!
Maybe Liam Fox! More seriously, perhaps Nick Gibb
Education Sec to Chief Whip is a HUGE humiliation.
I thought Dave believed in what he was doing as Education Sec !
LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adj. for 295 days left to go factor and using UKPR stand. swingometer
And the business community.
Good idea.
Follow
Nicky Morgan is the new Education Secretary and continues as Minister for Women and Equalities.
4:23 AM - 15 Jul 2014
It's a persuasive pitch.
Will Nicky Morgan be ?
Always figured Labour would poll 32 or 33 at a general election but looks like they are already at that level, if they don't arrest their relentless decline soon who knows where they will bottom out. Frankly I can see where the Conservatives will pick up votes but don't see where Labour will.
The NUT and teachers have played the man not the reforms and will lose anyway.
Job done.
I suspect Gove will have a big job in cabinet if the Tories win the next GE.
From a teamwork point of view (and with all egos placed to one side), top members of the Tory team like Gove, Hague etc, are pragmatic enough to realise that it is all about winning the next GE, not about personalities. Gove knows he was unpoular with teachers; moving from the role will probably help the team.
If the Tories lose the next GE they are all out of a job anyway. Taking 10 months out to mastermind a GE win seems absolutely sensible. The Hammond FCO role all looks to be part of the strategy. Not a long term role, but a purely political one: a Eurosceptic in the foreign office to win back votes from UKIP.
It all seems rational and good politics to me, because the reform part of governing is over; now is time for electioneering. Whether it works or not remains to be seen.
Politics is a rough business...
Mike's pieces on Gove is wot done it.
She's in the Brookes camp of megababes
@David_Cameron · 8m
Nicky Morgan is the new Education Secretary and continues as Minister for Women and Equalities.
I'd already parted company with the conservatives; this just reaffirms that I've made the right choice. Still no idea who I shall vote for next year though.
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A very bad move to change Education Secretary. Victory for the Blob, defeat for standards.
No doubt the new Ed Sec will be asked to push on with freedom and transparency but not to be so deliberately and confrontationally obnoxious about it.
Too late to repair the Tory toxicity on education before the election though, Gove did too much damage.
Inflation now 1.9%. Wage rises are just not keeping up.
Am told that Michael Gove has been involved in the reshuffle discussions for the past 2 weeks, already doing Chief Whip job
Not the response of someone who'd been humiliated.
Suggests May was the outlier.
Of course none of this will make any difference on the ground in Scotland, where you PBers are just completely disconnected from real life and have no idea of what is being said at the real centre of the universe.
"Fog on Tweed - continent cut off"
But onto other things. That Gove move looks like a very big Clegg win to me. Maybe a sign that Dave is preparing for a renewed coalition after the GE?
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Dont be taken in by idea Gove wanted to go, says Education Editor Greg Hurst. He wanted to stay and add universities http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4147820.ece …
Saw toothed shape ?
Reshuffles do not get better than this LOL
Hope this actually happens. Gove is one of Eds trump cards if it does.
But I think being a spineless, duplicitous scum-bag totally bereft of any conviction is factored in to Cameron's "story" anyway? I doubt you can get to Number Ten these day's without having these "qualities" LOL!
Surprised the prime minister doesn't view Education as a full time job.
However, his job was made harder as he is an earnest but not very personable man in public life - his heavy glasses and lack of smiles made it difficult for people to relate to him favourably - even if they agreed with his educational direction. The constraints of time (5 years) and dissenting coalition partners made his job even more difficult.
4 years of being worse off unless you are in the top 1% will definitely be viewed as Eds fault by voters
Stopgap whips job.
I will be guest editing the site for a few weeks straight after the Indyref.
So no matter the result I'll have fun.
You appear to have your finger on the pulse of a corpse
Lol please let it be so!