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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretar
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture
The big winner in the reshuffle is, undoubtedly, the new Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, who, with Theresa May, have been my long term bets at longish odds for Cameron’s successor. I got him originally at 41/1 and overnight I’ve put more on 16.5 on Betfair and 14/1 with Ladbrokes
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So Theresa May's appointment lasted just 6 days !
Similarly, Prince Charles and Prince William, but not the Queen.
"Last month, the South China Post in Hong Kong reported that police broke up an illegal betting ring at a Macau hotel involving roughly $645 million in wagers on the World Cup, including a single wager of $51.5 million."
http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/mob-connected-chinese-nationals-linked-illegal-world-cup-betting-caesars
That isn't a typo....
On Topic, Hammond, most component Tory by a country mile, but never a leader. He should be using his extensive record in business as CoE, far better than Osborne, Balls, Cable, or anybody else on the scene.
His first job in the Coalition, counting cones, was just down right offensive for somebody who was always measured and sensible when shadow Treasury Secretary.
Theresa May ........... 7/2
Boris Johnson ......... 4/1
George Osborne .... 6/1
Michael Gove ......... 10/1
http://yle.fi/elavaarkisto/artikkelit/kekkonen_kekkonen_kekkonen_77859.html#media=77853
I notice that at the end of the last thread @surbiton posted (and bolded!) an article about ICM.
Pointed out that, prior to spiral of silence, Labour and the Tories were neck and neck at 35%. So no crossover!
Must be worrying for Labour that this far out, one of their most tribal supporters, seems to think that neck & neck is a good place to be for the sole serious opposition party vs. a Coalition living through a difficult economic period....
Hammond has the charisma of a suburban bank manager. That may be precisely what would attract the electorate to a Tory leader. The Conservatives would do well to move beyond the style (and absence of any substance) of the loathsome Cameron. Whether the party will appreciate this or not is, of course, an open question.
Will the LDs also be having a reshuffle ? Will they also promote women ?
There are polls of polls and polling averages, but wouldn't it be good to weight these on past performance of the polling companies concerned?
Perhaps a woman at MoD (Soubry?) but where else....unless there are more firings this morning? Hmmm.
Oh, on topic, I've said so before (twice) but if the Tories lose in 2015, Sajid Javid will be the next leader. What are his odds at the moment?
Alan Duncan out? No tears from me for the rude and arrogant fellow. He should be the next one to step down in 2015. A nice safe seat for some other candidate who does not want to bother with constituency issues.
If Nicky Morgan gets promoted then Loughborough may be safer. It is the only true marginal in Leicestershire.
2 hours 3 minutes 4 seconds
More seriously, he doesn't have the personality for opposition. Opposition is difficult. Stories don't naturally come your way and you have to generate media attention (of the right sort). Hammond looks and sounds so close to an identikit Tory that his backstory won't help him any more than it helped Hague.
One thing history should teach us is that a candidate's background makes next to no difference when picking a leader. First and foremost is the consideration of who is the most likely winner. Another Etonian is no problem at all, providing that it's the right Etonian. Sure, the left-wing talking heads will recoil in horror that the Tories haven't held someone's background and old school tie against them, but so what? They're never going to capture those votes and if there's a media narrative about it to begin with, that'd be an opportunity to prove why he was the right man for the job.
However, Hammond is a very real possibility as next Tory leader not if the Conservatives lose the next election but if they win it. Should Cameron stand down mid- to late-term, Hammond would be ideally placed to succeed him, in the same manner as Major did. By that point, Cameron would have done well over a decade as Tory leader and around eight as PM. He might decide to call it quits then if things are going well. Alternatively, the party might decide to call it quits for him if they aren't. Either is plausible, particularly as the EU vote should be scheduled around then.
But for all his appearance of competence I don't think his time in Defence has been particularly stellar. The mess made of the defence budget over the last decade was beyond even him to sort out, the cuts in the regulars, the problems with TA recruitment, the Brownian nightmare of the carriers we cannot really afford to equip, the reorientation of the equipment budget after Afghanistan, it is a terrible job at the moment and one of the most difficult in government.
As Foreign Secretary he will be relatively low profile unless he takes up the cudgels on the EU.
I agree with those who say that his only route to the top would be in government. He is a fairly leaden HoC performer and not suitable for opposition. If Osborne was the next leader he would be a natural candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer or shadow Chancellor. I suspect that will be his peak in politics.
Whilst a gung-ho FS is not and will be not appropriate for the current situations, he has had opportunities to show a spark of leadership and inspiration in solution creation - sadly he has sat back and let others take up the running.
Hammond would be safe, but he probably lacks the creative skills that the position requires.
For once having 'the balls to do the job' may be a disadvantage #reshuffle
"06:48: BBC Radio 4's chief political correspondent Gary O'Donoghue describes the reshuffle as one in which "the moderates are being axed and more right-wingers are being brought in".
BBC radio 4's chief political correspondent parroting the Lab line, what a surprise...
Incidentally, which "right-wingers" have been brought in so far?
But he is my biggest "green" there to the tune of £170.
I'll leave him be for now on the exchange.
Edit:Hmm Stuck £20 @ 20.0 on him to back ^_~
Looks like there will be a big batch of seats selecting new candidates over the next few months. Maybe a chance for some genuine open primaries?
Hague worked very hard on Syria only to be completely undermined by the HoC vote which effectively took Britain out of the game as a player. Whether he was right or not about us needing to do much more to support the "moderates" is a very difficult question but the rise and rise of ISIS is clearly what he feared and found that he could do nothing about.
I note in July 2013 UKIP were 7 (-5) with them too...
The challenge of a Labour government would be its lack of coherence on policy and financial laxity. Hammonds forensic eye for detail and numbers as well as his focus would more than make up for his lack of rhetorical flourishes at PMQs etc.
I remain a fan. Incidentally he would be a good Euro Commissioner too...
Re: YouGov & ICM Polls
Probably the most significant statement is: "There is also a marked contrast in Tory support between Scotland (21%), Wales (18%) and the north as a whole (21%), a very different picture from the Midlands, where Cameron's party stands on 46%." Shows you cannot apply UNS to any poll results.
For some time now, the YouGov regional split (caveats apply) for Midland/Wales has often been similar to that of today: Cons:37; LAB: 40; LD:3; UKIP:13. Now if the Labour strength of Wales is discounted, then YouGov probably agrees with ICM regarding the Midlands - a key battleground for 2015.
Getting the cane or an apple for teacher ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2692286/Ed-worse-leader-Kinnock-lose-election-year-failed-control-spending-says-Charles-Clarke.html
Overall it's probably a marginal plus for her but of course she sits for a marginal seat.
33 minutes 33 seconds
Surely in the next 10 months she should be on the doorstep rather than in a ministerial car.
As Dan Hodges and now Charles Clarke have been saying, David Cameron is going to get a majority next May. You would be better gambling on the next leader of the Labour party.
The next Tory leader is likely to come from the new generation of cabinet ministers being appointed today.
Our own Nick Palmer is probably chewing a wasp this morning whilst clearly on a personal level congratulating her on the promotion.
You lost me there. A coin toss has a better track record for predictions than these two.
We will all have seen pollsters/journos ask people to identify politicians and most people don't seem to recognise many. Is it wise to change your team to less well known people, ten months before an election ?
Still not really officially confirmed but it seems FRIC suspension will be no more at Germany.
I dislike mid-season rule changes (excepting those done for safety reasons). The main beneficiaries should be Williams, perhaps Red Bull and Force India. The first two because they're closer to Mercedes than the rest, and Force India because they vetoed an agreement that would have enabled FRIC suspension to be used until the end of the season and, I think, are the only team not to have it.
Long odds (circa 20/1) available for Williams/Red Bull drivers to get pole or the win, if you think they stand a chance. Williams screwing up Silverstone qualifying means we haven't had a real picture of their pace (in that regard, at least) since Austria.
If she was MP for Aldershot, it might be different.
Nice pension though.
Thoughts ?
Oopps.
As a female cabinet minister and first woman Defence Secretary she'll have a high profile and expect her to be trotted out regularly in the media outwith of her ministerial duties.
One of the main problems for the Foreign Secretary is that the PM takes most of his job, so there's not much left for a Foreign Secretary to do.
As to who follows Cameron if (big IF) he ain't PM next June? Who would want it - Tory LOTO is a particularly thankless job - ask WiIlie!
Presently my ARSE has Broxtowe as Likely LAB GAIN.
Edit: And of course Ken Clarke has said he intends to remain as an active backbencher, but will he stand for election in 2020? He would be 80 in the year of a 2020 general election, and so Soubry could be well-placed to take over his seat, which borders Broxtowe.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection (Changes Since 1st July)
Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?
YES 37% (-1) .. No 63% (+1)
Turnout Projection 80.5% (-0.5%)
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
97 was brutal, status had little to do with it, it was just Kill Tory night
1997 was different with the steady noise of the electoral tumbril trundling along toward the chopping block.
In another way the landslide nature of the election made for more difficult analysis. Broadly Cabinet ministers did as badly as fellow MPs. Wave elections are generally no respecter of rank.
It's not a great record - until you compare it to that of Labour or the LibDems over the same period. The Tories at least had three leaders who were adequate or OKish, which is two more than the others.
Or to look at it another way, the Tories have never proposed Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband, Jeremy Thorpe, Menzies Campbell, or Charles Kennedy as PM.
Edit - maybe the old screech owl, Harman, will be so moved by the influx of ladyticians she will defect.