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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    The Times reporting

    1) Hague turned down the Commissioner's job

    2) Dr Fox will be back as Environment Secretary
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 18s

    Labour spin all about "massacre of moderates". But top ranked sackings so far are Paterson & Jones, 2 eurosceptics against gay marriage.

    You expect labour to be honest?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    The Times reporting

    1) Hague turned down the Commissioner's job

    Unforgivable! I was on at 66/1!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 2014

    Sorry my I also add that given that we really have not had - and not had the need for - a real reshuffle for over 4 years then we should not be surprised that this is a failrly widespread one. In truth it does not seem that big really.

    A fair point. Most of the upper tiers are staying put or being shifted around, so as someone said down thread, there's a hope of 'here's the future team' about these midlevel promotions, while not suggesting the current team are a bunch of losers who need to be replaced fast.
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    This reshuffle while expected, has been so well managed its actually managed to take both the political Lobby and the Labour party by complete surprise.

    kle4 said:

    is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction?

    (a) Have to wait and see who's promoted.

    (b) Only if Labour decide to be helpful and attack on that basis.

    Actually, looks like they are:

    Labour brand

    Th

    It is almost as if they planned it.
    If it all works out well - or as well as these things can - will it be the first genuinely well managed piece of political business from the Tories in quite some time? Perhaps my memory is unfair to them, but my instinctive reaction is that as a general rule, Cameron and his coterie are terrible at party management and media management.

    Just look at the date and you will discover that most people might be on vacation so they wont notice the reshuffle.
    Logically one would do it when people are paying attention.
    Could be worse, he could have done it yesterday during the world cup final.
    Perhaps. That makes sense, but while they will want to get positive public reaction from this, part of me wonders if they are realistic that few people would notice anyway, so any benefits from for instance promoting more women will have to come from their being more prominent over the next 10 months rather than an immediate bounce from the announcement, and so it's fine to do it on a day fill of other news, as the other goal is party management and getting everyone in line and on song from hereon out, rather than the public goals.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Sorry my I also add that given that we really have not had - and not had the need for - a real reshuffle for over 4 years then we should not be surprised that this is a failrly widespread one. In truth it does not seem that big really.

    Yes, for those of a certain age it's nothing compared with this one:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives_(1962)


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hammond is the closest thing to John Major in today's Tory party so it's good to see him promoted. Unfortunately he isn't all that similar to John Major.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    The Times reporting

    1) Hague turned down the Commissioner's job

    Unforgivable! I was on at 66/1!
    I feel your pain
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2014
    Today's reshuffle certainly won't cause any problems for Farage and UKIP, quite the reverse in fact. The party might notice a slight uptick in membership applications over the next few days I fancy.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The Times reporting

    1) Hague turned down the Commissioner's job

    2) Dr Fox will be back as Environment Secretary

    I wonder if they will be a by-election from the new commisioner at all.
    It might just be Howard.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    For those who thought Jeremy Browne would defect to the Tories

    Jeremy Browne @JeremyBrowneMP

    What happened to David Cameron's 'liberal conservatism'? I suppose it was just a marketing gimmick. Like 'vote blue, go green'. Inauthentic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 18s

    Labour spin all about "massacre of moderates". But top ranked sackings so far are Paterson & Jones, 2 eurosceptics against gay marriage.

    You expect labour to be honest?
    On this? On such topics such as the interpretation of the internal politics of another party, it is one area where I am perfectly happy to say all the parties will outright lie as much as they can get away with, as there is zero reason for them not to spin things to their heart's content. They might end up being right by pure chance, but discounting anything Labour says on the matter seems the reasonable option I think.

    Night all, hopefully they won't announce the new jobs until late morning, as I feel like a lie in.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    The Labour party have been claiming for years that this was a brutal right wing Conservative led Government, tonight they are now trying to spin that the current Conservative led Government were actually a bunch of moderates after all. Someone at Labour HQ really didn't think this one through before they sent the message out to Labour MP's on twitter tonight.....#fail


    Twitter
    Rupert Myers ‏@RupertMyers 31m
    Now spend the next day watching white male Labour MPs criticise the promotion of women #reshuffle

    Janan Ganesh ‏@JananGanesh 57m
    Ppl giving centrist Toryism last rites without knowing who newbies are. This time tomorrow, there'll be no ideological pattern to reshuffle.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Speedy said:

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    "manipulate online debates"
    OK, jokingly who is the GCHQ spy here?
    Wasn't somebody from the SNP saying they suspected GHCQ of creating deliberately unpleasant Scottish nationalist personas to discredit the yes campaign? It all seems to fit...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    But the recent drop in UKIP's polling certainly will, and if that doesn't worry some at the top of the party, it should.
    AndyJS said:

    Today's reshuffle certainly won't cause any problems for Farage and UKIP, quite the reverse in fact. The party might notice a slight uptick in membership applications over the next few days I fancy.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    1) Hague turned down the Commissioner's job

    Maybe he could still get EUCO. Merkel was quoted saying it wouldn't matter if the president came from non-Euro country, which everyone was assuming meant Thorning-Schmidt, but it applies to Britain as well.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    You can't use one poll as a basis for what the current polling situation is.

    Does the Foreign Secretary even do anything with the EU anyway? Are there any examples where a UK Foreign Secretary has tangibly affected UK-EU relations?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Assuming it is true that Hammond is getting the Foreign Sec gig, it's a welcome promotion for a loyal and talented minister.

    Let's see how he works out. I like Hammond, although he's still crappy on civil liberties.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    No
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 1m
    No call yet so to bed......
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    It's pretty clear GCHQ and the NSA don't want to just spy on people. They want to manipulate the web to alter public opinion. Are we really comfortable with such people being able to see anyone's web browsing habits?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    No
    You think bumping YouTube views is a good use of tax money?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Sorry my I also add that given that we really have not had - and not had the need for - a real reshuffle for over 4 years then we should not be surprised that this is a failrly widespread one. In truth it does not seem that big really.

    Yes, for those of a certain age it's nothing compared with this one:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives_(1962)


    Sorry my I also add that given that we really have not had - and not had the need for - a real reshuffle for over 4 years then we should not be surprised that this is a failrly widespread one. In truth it does not seem that big really.

    Yes, for those of a certain age it's nothing compared with this one:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives_(1962)


    Correct - Macmillan sacked his entire treasury team. This is something Blair should have done in 2001.
  • Ken Clarke sounds a note of warning in the penultimate paragraph of his resignation letter:
    I intend to remain as an active back bencher in the House of Commons. My belief in Britain's membership of the European Union remains as firm as ever and I think the political and economic case is made even stronger in today's globalised economy and dangerously disturbed world. We must not diminish Britain's ability to influence events in the next few decades. I know that you are quite determined to have a referendum on the subject, in which I will be campaigning vigorously for a vote to keep us in the Union.
    The man is as dangerous a Europhile as ever. He even appears to believe the FCO line about British influence in the world.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    AndyJS said:

    Today's reshuffle certainly won't cause any problems for Farage and UKIP, quite the reverse in fact. The party might notice a slight uptick in membership applications over the next few days I fancy.

    There seems precious nlittle logic in that. ICM showing UKIP down 7 ?? All polls downgradiong UKIP. Hardly a sign of a flocking membership (pardon my typo)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    AndyJS said:

    David Davis supporters have been hoping Andrew Mitchell might make a return but not sign of it yet.

    This is utterly bizarre. The guy did lots of good things DfID and got sacked based on a malicious lie. It seems appalling that his whole career is still being held back because of it.
  • Socrates said:

    Let's see how he works out. I like Hammond, although he's still crappy on civil liberties.

    There are no civil libertarians left in the government. Hammond is the best of a bad lot of authoritarians.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    No
    You think bumping YouTube views is a good use of tax money?
    Well if they Rickrolling the world, then yes.
  • Socrates said:

    This is utterly bizarre. The guy did lots of good things DfID and got sacked based on a malicious lie. It seems appalling that his whole career is still being held back because of it.

    Whether he was sacked because of a "vicious lie" is presently a live issue in two actions for damages before the High Court of Justice.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited July 2014
    I wonder what news stories and Youtube videos GCHQ tried to manipulate to change stories. I used to think people claiming that celebrity gossip media was used to distract the population from bigger issues were idiots. These latest revelations are making me question my confidence about such things.

    Either way, it's clear the intelligence services have far too much power, and politicians are far too unwilling to confront them. Of course, back in J Edgar Hoover's day, the intelligence services used their intel to threaten politicians...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    No
    You think bumping YouTube views is a good use of tax money?
    Well if they Rickrolling the world, then yes.
    I want to see some actual ROI numbers on this. Per pound spent, how many terrorists have they convicted, how many bombs did they prevent, and how many really funny rickrolls did they pull off?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    Or not quite as good at the old putters as they should be :-)

    Actually, by the source articles own admission they don't really know which were made, which were just ideas, etc.

    I think it is probably a bit of everything. Mission creep, "sir sir sir, I have a cool idea", and probably lots of money getting pi$$ed up the wall on stupid stuff.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Socrates said:

    AndyJS said:

    David Davis supporters have been hoping Andrew Mitchell might make a return but not sign of it yet.

    This is utterly bizarre. The guy did lots of good things DfID and got sacked based on a malicious lie. It seems appalling that his whole career is still being held back because of it.
    I believe there are outstanding legal actions going through the courts - I doubt he will be invited to return until all is done and dusted.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "While many recent polls point to a tight race next year, in most, Labour retains the edge. ICM, which has the best record in recent general elections, differs from many others in continuing to conduct its surveys of voting intention over the telephone as opposed to online. It also makes a distinctive adjustment to deal with voters who are happy to report how they voted last time, but are less forthcoming about what they will do in the future. It assumes that many such voters "return home" in future elections, which in the past has been a useful way to identify "shy Tories" at times when the Conservatives have been unfashionable.

    In Monday's data, however, ICM's adjustments do not much change the relative standing of the main two parties – Labour and the Conservatives would both be on 35% without the adjustment, although the Liberal Democrats would fare worse – they stand at just 9% before the assumption about some current deserters returning to the fold is applied" - the Guardian
    -----------

    My emphasis.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited July 2014

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    No
    You think bumping YouTube views is a good use of tax money?
    Well if they Rickrolling the world, then yes.
    I want to see some actual ROI numbers on this. Per pound spent, how many terrorists have they convicted, how many bombs did they prevent, and how many really funny rickrolls did they pull off?
    So do I.

    I'm sure I read a story a while back about how some non UK intelligence agencies goaded terrorists to upload footage of their stuff to youtube and then managed to work out who they were and capture them
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    surbiton said:

    "While many recent polls point to a tight race next year, in most, Labour retains the edge. ICM, which has the best record in recent general elections, differs from many others in continuing to conduct its surveys of voting intention over the telephone as opposed to online. It also makes a distinctive adjustment to deal with voters who are happy to report how they voted last time, but are less forthcoming about what they will do in the future. It assumes that many such voters "return home" in future elections, which in the past has been a useful way to identify "shy Tories" at times when the Conservatives have been unfashionable.

    In Monday's data, however, ICM's adjustments do not much change the relative standing of the main two parties – Labour and the Conservatives would both be on 35% without the adjustment, although the Liberal Democrats would fare worse – they stand at just 9% before the assumption about some current deserters returning to the fold is applied" - the Guardian
    -----------

    My emphasis.

    The Spiral of silence is what makes ICM so accurate, if you want to ignore it....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The Tory party has only 48 women MPs. 12 Ministers would one in four women MP are Ministers !
  • I want to see some actual ROI numbers on this. Per pound spent, how many terrorists have they convicted, how many bombs did they prevent, and how many really funny rickrolls did they pull off?

    Bear in mind that one is today called a "terrorist" if convicted of the offence of preparing to commit an act of terrorism, contrary to section 5 of the Terrorism Act 2006. The actus reus of the offence is so absurdly broad that it is in many ways little more than a thought crime. Catching "terrorists" really ought not to be that difficult.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Just noticed the Mail and the Telegraph have the same headline - apart from them not knowing who will replace those out going MPs, since when has 74 been considered as middle age?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ken Clarke sounds a note of warning in the penultimate paragraph of his resignation letter:

    I intend to remain as an active back bencher in the House of Commons. My belief in Britain's membership of the European Union remains as firm as ever and I think the political and economic case is made even stronger in today's globalised economy and dangerously disturbed world. We must not diminish Britain's ability to influence events in the next few decades. I know that you are quite determined to have a referendum on the subject, in which I will be campaigning vigorously for a vote to keep us in the Union.
    The man is as dangerous a Europhile as ever. He even appears to believe the FCO line about British influence in the world.

    The last sensible Tory. Dominic Grieve is also being ousted.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    Or not quite as good at the old putters as they should be :-)

    Actually, by the source articles own admission they don't really know which were made, which were just ideas, etc.

    I think it is probably a bit of everything. Mission creep, "sir sir sir, I have a cool idea", and probably lots of money getting pi$$ed up the wall on stupid stuff.
    Yeah, and mayne the other thing here is that if you want to build a big team of infosec people, you start by hiring enthusiatic hacker kids, then try to find them some not-too-important things to be working on while they learn how to do something useful.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
    Well right. Anyone else getting the impression that these agencies have just got far too much money and time on their hands?
    Or not quite as good at the old putters as they should be :-)

    Actually, by the source articles own admission they don't really know which were made, which were just ideas, etc.

    I think it is probably a bit of everything. Mission creep, "sir sir sir, I have a cool idea", and probably lots of money getting pi$$ed up the wall on stupid stuff.
    Yeah, and mayne the other thing here is that if you want to build a big team of infosec people, you start by hiring enthusiatic hacker kids, then try to find them some not-too-important things to be working on while they learn how to do something useful.
    Then they leave and form a start-up producing the latest crappy new fad app :-)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nice clear, simple thing on DRIP by the Open Rights Group:

    https://www.openrightsgroup.org/blog/2014/the-drip-myth-list
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Were Anna Soubry to become Defence Secretary would that help or hinder her chances of retaining Broxtowe in 2015?

    Edit: Just remembered that Portillo was Defence Secretary when he lost his seat in 1997

    It would definitely help her chances but no one person can halt a tide !

    Maybe, as a pro European she would offer one division to the Euro Army !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Sir George Young has also announced his resignation as chief whip.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GCHQ hacking tool IMPERIAL BARGE for connecting targets' phones together sounds like my idea to have a site where when you get a call from a telemarketer you can patch them through to somebody else's telemarketer and see how long they spend trying to sell each other things before they notice.

    If GCHQ are going after telemarketers I think we'd all support giving them broader powers.
  • GCHQ hacking tool IMPERIAL BARGE for connecting targets' phones together sounds like my idea to have a site where when you get a call from a telemarketer you can patch them through to somebody else's telemarketer and see how long they spend trying to sell each other things before they notice.

    If GCHQ are going after telemarketers I think we'd all support giving them broader powers.

    I miss the like button.

  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    GCHQ hacking tool IMPERIAL BARGE for connecting targets' phones together sounds like my idea to have a site where when you get a call from a telemarketer you can patch them through to somebody else's telemarketer and see how long they spend trying to sell each other things before they notice.

    If GCHQ are going after telemarketers I think we'd all support giving them broader powers.

    Seconded, I've a Truecall unit on the phone line, and at the moment, it's blocking at least 3 nuisance calls a day.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    saddened said:

    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
    It's a well known fact Tories don't have mothers.
    Tut Tut! Mothers definitely, fathers though may not be the ones their mothers married.
This discussion has been closed.