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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Reshuffle

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  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Phil Hammond was 14/1 to be next Foreign Sec in September 2013
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,960
    Speculation - Wharton gets rewarded for his Yerp frothing bill by being allowed to step across the boundary from Stockton South - where he'll get slaughtered - into Richmond
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Philip Hammond = Foreign Secretary.

    Putting a mild eurosceptic in place of a europhile.
    Hammond is pretty much at the policy center of the Tory backbenchers, mild eurosceptic and social conservative.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:
    How many are retiring due to age?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    William Hague will probably go to the Lords next year
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
    Those are my three least successful chat-up lines in reverse order.
    How on earth did you know?

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
    It's a well known fact Tories don't have mothers.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    How many Etonians gone out of interest?

    Good question . Zero ?
    Nick Hurd - for one
    All this culling and yet only one Etonian scalp ! He probably mixed with the wrong crowd.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 2014
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
    I am sure almost all of them do, although what they feel needs to be done, or can be done, and what priority to give those specific problems that are not already shared by all citizens, may vary.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @saddened
    It's the fathers they are unsure of.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
    I don't, but the Labour attack line did revolve around the number of women in the cabinet, so the same logic applies: the number of women has some value, even if not determinative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Speedy Mr '10 days to save the pound' is hardly a europhile!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    What is the thinking in getting Fox back in? Seems a bloody odd move. I don't purport to be expert on internal Tory politics. Any of our blue friends on here shed any light?

    I am with you on that one Mr. Fett. If it is true that Fox is to be brought back onto payroll then the reason why is damn obscure and probably not in the best interests of good government. There again that seems to be true about the entire reshuffle. An attempt to gather a few good headlines and mitigate the "lack of women" attack line would seem to be the thrust, with a bit of party management thrown in.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Hammond for Hague solves nothing ergo Hague wanted to go to spend more time with his appearance fees.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    TSE The likes of Richmond and Bexhill and Battle do not need an incumbency bonus, a mouldy cabbage would win those seats with a blue rosette!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:
    How many are retiring due to age?
    So from this, it is clear that a far greater proportion of Labour MPs are stepping down - so if it follows that people are more likely not to stand if they fear that their party can't win next time round, surely this means that Labour MPs are more pessimistic...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I love the Mail headline. 74 is 'middle-aged'?

    This is excellent news. I thought I was too late to have a mid-life crisis, but I'm going to have to rethink.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    perdix said:

    Good to see Hague's political career ending. I suppose he'll join Blair on the stand-up comic circuit.

    Hague has a wonderful sense of humour and a very sharp intelligence. You should view some of his speeches in the Commons. You are a pale shadow beside him.

    Hague can be very funny. Unfortunately he was both a wretched party leader and Foreign Secretary.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Smarmeron said:

    @saddened
    It's the fathers they are unsure of.

    Let's see how long it takes for a good scout to criticize your post.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited July 2014
    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    ha! I'll throw in a tenner. To hell with it I'll give £20. You are so right.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    I could be rude and suggest there is an oxymoron in that post.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    perdix said:

    Good to see Hague's political career ending. I suppose he'll join Blair on the stand-up comic circuit.

    Hague has a wonderful sense of humour and a very sharp intelligence. You should view some of his speeches in the Commons. You are a pale shadow beside him.

    maybe as LotH he will get to reprise his stand-up acts at PMQs, when Cameron is unavailable

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Any news on Big Eric?

    Hope he survived to fight another day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    perdix said:

    Good to see Hague's political career ending. I suppose he'll join Blair on the stand-up comic circuit.

    Hague has a wonderful sense of humour and a very sharp intelligence. You should view some of his speeches in the Commons. You are a pale shadow beside him.

    maybe as LotH he will get to reprise his stand-up acts at PMQs, when Cameron is unavailable

    Sadly not, the Cleggmeister stands in at PMQs when Dave is unavailable.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Mr '10 days to save the pound' is hardly a europhile!

    Since he became foreign secretary he quickly became "native" and drastically changed course.
    I hope that Hammond doesn't follow in his footsteps.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    I love the Mail headline. 74 is 'middle-aged'?

    This is excellent news. I thought I was too late to have a mid-life crisis, but I'm going to have to rethink.

    I'm amused at the likely frantic discussions as print time approached.

    "Ok, this is clearly mostly about getting in more women, and clearing out a few of the old guard, how best to summarise that?
    "Well, it's getting rid of mostly middle aged white men..."
    "Brilliant! Purge of the Middle age men, leave out the white, don't want to go racial. Go with that, put up 2, no, 3 pictures"
    "Ok, so, Hague for one"
    "Obviously. And the legal chap, sounds good on the front page. Dramatic. Who else?"
    "Paterson?
    "No one will recognise his picture."
    "Baker? Hurd? Willets?"
    "No-one will have heard of them. Or at least no-one pick their photo out of a line up, and we can't have 2 of the three be unrecognizable. Screw it, put in Clarke?"
    "Same headline, boss?"
    "Huh? Oh sure, whatever"
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    hucks67 said:

    I think Cameron will go for someone in the HOL to be the new Attorney General. I think there has been some suggestion that having the AG in the HOC is probably the not the best place, as when difficult legal questions arise, the cabinet want the AG to be able to give their advice in private. Not sat on the same bench, where people can look at their body language or ask them to intervene to provide an explanation.

    In which case, why not have an AG in neither House?

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:
    How many are retiring due to age?
    So from this, it is clear that a far greater proportion of Labour MPs are stepping down - so if it follows that people are more likely not to stand if they fear that their party can't win next time round, surely this means that Labour MPs are more pessimistic...
    No, I really mean it when I ask how many are retiring due to age?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    perdix said:

    Good to see Hague's political career ending. I suppose he'll join Blair on the stand-up comic circuit.

    Hague has a wonderful sense of humour and a very sharp intelligence. You should view some of his speeches in the Commons. You are a pale shadow beside him.

    maybe as LotH he will get to reprise his stand-up acts at PMQs, when Cameron is unavailable

    Sadly not, the Cleggmeister stands in at PMQs when Dave is unavailable.
    except when the Coalition gets wound up ;-)

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 3m
    That's some badger like moving of the goalposts by Labour there: We don't care about women anymore, won't someone thing of the wets etc

    Do you think the public is so easily fooled ? Suddenly the Tory party is women friendly ? How many understand the problem mothers face ?
    Those are my three least successful chat-up lines in reverse order.
    How on earth did you know?

    LOL

  • Is Dave intending to introduce some female glamour into the Cabinet - not so much the night of the long knives as the might of the thong wives.

    Oh dear .... I'll get me coat.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2014
    Just think: all those wannabe MPs kicking themselves because they ended up applying for and getting some really tough marginal when they could have gone for Richmond, or Bexhill & Battle...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 2014
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:
    How many are retiring due to age?
    So from this, it is clear that a far greater proportion of Labour MPs are stepping down - so if it follows that people are more likely not to stand if they fear that their party can't win next time round, surely this means that Labour MPs are more pessimistic...
    No, I really mean it when I ask how many are retiring due to age?
    Impossible to know, surely? There are MPs in their 70s who are continuing on as they think they can still do the job, and have the will to do it, while someone in their 50s in the House for a long or short time might feel the time has come to take advantage of the generous pension and begin a full or semi-retirement depending on how bored they might get, who might say it is due to age.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Speedy I don't think he did anything which was exactly federalist
  • perdix said:

    Good to see Hague's political career ending. I suppose he'll join Blair on the stand-up comic circuit.

    Hague has a wonderful sense of humour and a very sharp intelligence. You should view some of his speeches in the Commons. You are a pale shadow beside him.

    maybe as LotH he will get to reprise his stand-up acts at PMQs, when Cameron is unavailable

    Sadly not, the Cleggmeister stands in at PMQs when Dave is unavailable.
    Speaking of which, when exactly did Clegg last stand in for Dave? - It hardly ever seems to actually happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    hucks67 said:

    I think Cameron will go for someone in the HOL to be the new Attorney General. I think there has been some suggestion that having the AG in the HOC is probably the not the best place, as when difficult legal questions arise, the cabinet want the AG to be able to give their advice in private. Not sat on the same bench, where people can look at their body language or ask them to intervene to provide an explanation.

    In which case, why not have an AG in neither House?

    A step too far, perhaps, but in time?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:
    How many are retiring due to age?
    So from this, it is clear that a far greater proportion of Labour MPs are stepping down - so if it follows that people are more likely not to stand if they fear that their party can't win next time round, surely this means that Labour MPs are more pessimistic...
    No, I really mean it when I ask how many are retiring due to age?
    How can you tell? Clarke obviously wants to go on to 75, someone else might want to spend more time with their grandchildren (or mistress) at 60, Hague thinks that 54 is a good time to move on from front-line politics. Why do we assume MPs will want to stay on until they are old and knackered? It is not good for the body politic.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    Count me in for twenty quid.

    I bore even myself at times, I'm so shit.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:
    How many are retiring due to age?
    About 50% are over 60 years of age.
  • kle4 said:

    A step too far, perhaps, but in time?

    The Lord Advocate is no longer as Member of the Kangaroo Parliament in Edinburgh, and is allegedly no longer appointed on political grounds. So it would not be a move without precedent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    perdix said:

    Good to see Hague's political career ending. I suppose he'll join Blair on the stand-up comic circuit.

    Hague has a wonderful sense of humour and a very sharp intelligence. You should view some of his speeches in the Commons. You are a pale shadow beside him.

    maybe as LotH he will get to reprise his stand-up acts at PMQs, when Cameron is unavailable

    Sadly not, the Cleggmeister stands in at PMQs when Dave is unavailable.
    Speaking of which, when exactly did Clegg last stand in for Dave? - It hardly ever seems to actually happen.
    March this year.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    kle4 said:

    hucks67 said:

    I think Cameron will go for someone in the HOL to be the new Attorney General. I think there has been some suggestion that having the AG in the HOC is probably the not the best place, as when difficult legal questions arise, the cabinet want the AG to be able to give their advice in private. Not sat on the same bench, where people can look at their body language or ask them to intervene to provide an explanation.

    In which case, why not have an AG in neither House?

    A step too far, perhaps, but in time?
    It's only a convention that ministers are in either House. It could be changed tomorrow.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I think the presentation of more women being promoted will be the main focus going forward, and certainly what Cameron will hope to be the focus, but is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction? I cannot see most UKIPers regarding any changes with more euroskeptic placements being convinced, not with Cameron in charge.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 2014

    kle4 said:

    hucks67 said:

    I think Cameron will go for someone in the HOL to be the new Attorney General. I think there has been some suggestion that having the AG in the HOC is probably the not the best place, as when difficult legal questions arise, the cabinet want the AG to be able to give their advice in private. Not sat on the same bench, where people can look at their body language or ask them to intervene to provide an explanation.

    In which case, why not have an AG in neither House?

    A step too far, perhaps, but in time?
    It's only a convention that ministers are in either House. It could be changed tomorrow.
    Hence the 'in time' part of my post. The more difficulty this particular minister being in either House becomes, the more there could be talk of trying something different given the nature of the post. According to LIAMT it is not even without precedent, which is always handy.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited July 2014
    There was Boris thinking that he was a shoo-in for Richmond, Surrey only to discover that he wasn't destined for that Richmond at all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2014
    Younger than usual retirements:

    Con: Charles Hendry, Lorraine Fullbrook, Laura Sandys, Jessica Lee, Aidan Burley, James Clappison, Mike Weatherley, John Randall, William Hague, David Willetts.

    Lab: Shaun Woodward, Meg Munn, Hazel Blears, Sian James, Dawn Primarolo.

    LD: Sarah Teather, David Heath, Ian Swales.
  • Just think: all those wannabe MPs kicking themselves because they ended up applying for and getting some really tough marginal when they could have gone for Richmond, or Bexhill & Battle...

    Won't they along with places like Hertsmere be saved for favoured sons and spads etc?

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    BobaFett said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    Count me in for twenty quid.

    I bore even myself at times, I'm so shit.

    Is this the fiendish underpass at work?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    What is the thinking in getting Fox back in? Seems a bloody odd move. I don't purport to be expert on internal Tory politics. Any of our blue friends on here shed any light?

    I am with you on that one Mr. Fett. If it is true that Fox is to be brought back onto payroll then the reason why is damn obscure and probably not in the best interests of good government. There again that seems to be true about the entire reshuffle. An attempt to gather a few good headlines and mitigate the "lack of women" attack line would seem to be the thrust, with a bit of party management thrown in.
    Before the Fox scandalette (which I didn't think was a scandal at all because I'm not homophobic and really could not give a monkeys about whom ministers room with) wasn't Fox notorious for briefing against Dave and giving him endless hell about defence cuts?*


    *admittedly he may have been right about these!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Just think: all those wannabe MPs kicking themselves because they ended up applying for and getting some really tough marginal when they could have gone for Richmond, or Bexhill & Battle...

    Ha - that's true :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    "manipulate online debates"
    OK, jokingly who is the GCHQ spy here?
  • What an odd way of setting forward with a Cabinet reshuffle - the news seems to be coming out in dribs and drabs.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    kle4 said:

    is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction?

    (a) Have to wait and see who's promoted.

    (b) Only if Labour decide to be helpful and attack on that basis.

    Actually, looks like they are:

    Labour brands reshuffle 'massacre of the moderates'

    Michael Dugher, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, is describing the reshuffle as the "massacre of the moderates". Here's his statement on it in full.

    "This speaks volumes about David Cameron's leadership.

    Four years of failure to promote women and now we have the massacre of the moderates...."



    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jul/14/mps-question-theresa-may-over-child-abuse-inquiry-and-surveillance-bill-politics-live-blog

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    Don't mean to be funny, but a lot of those tools already exist and are in the public domain. There are all sorts of paid services for bumping your YouTube views, your twitter followers, and no not just the ones that involve some poor sod in Indian subcontinent clicking on 1000's of websites every day.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    saddened said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    Count me in for twenty quid.

    I bore even myself at times, I'm so shit.

    Is this the fiendish underpass at work?
    I have no idea.

    Chiefly because I have no idea what your post means!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    BobaFett said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    Count me in for twenty quid.

    I bore even myself at times, I'm so shit.

    I didn't mean you.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    kle4 said:

    is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction?

    (a) Have to wait and see who's promoted.

    (b) Only if Labour decide to be helpful and attack on that basis.

    Actually, looks like they are:

    Labour brands reshuffle 'massacre of the moderates'

    Michael Dugher, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, is describing the reshuffle as the "massacre of the moderates". Here's his statement on it in full.

    "This speaks volumes about David Cameron's leadership.

    Four years of failure to promote women and now we have the massacre of the moderates...."



    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jul/14/mps-question-theresa-may-over-child-abuse-inquiry-and-surveillance-bill-politics-live-blog

    This looks like a trap for commentators (and Labour) alike. You announce who is going first - so everyone jumps to conclusions - then you announce the new appointments and whip the rug out from under them.

    It is almost as if they planned it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I love the Mail headline. 74 is 'middle-aged'.

    Its called "confirmation bias".....

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821


    Won't they along with places like Hertsmere be saved for favoured sons and spads etc?

    Yes, but it's a game of exquisite calculation because you don't know what seats are coming up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited July 2014
    Were Anna Soubry to become Defence Secretary would that help or hinder her chances of retaining Broxtowe in 2015?

    Edit: Just remembered that Portillo was Defence Secretary when he lost his seat in 1997
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 12m
    I've always said cabinet reshuffles are Westminster bubble stuff. Yet my tweet line is smoking tonight. Interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Speedy He was never anti EU, just anti Federalist, remember 'In Europe, not run by Europe'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    Younger than usual retirements:

    Con: Charles Hendry, Lorraine Fullbrook, Laura Sandys, Jessica Lee, Aidan Burley, James Clappison, Mike Weatherley, John Randall, William Hague, David Willetts.

    Lab: Shaun Woodward, Meg Munn, Hazel Blears, Sian James, Dawn Primarolo.

    LD: Sarah Teather, David Heath, Ian Swales.

    I didn't know Ian Swales was retiring. I suppose after winning Redcar in such a massive swing, only to be faced with its inevitable return to the Labour fold, that might help persuade someone it might as well be time to stand down, in top of any personal reasons.

    The 'younger than usual' criteria is helpful, but of course length of service is also significant. Hague might be younger than usual if he were just a normal person retiring, but instead he's stepping down after 26 years with plenty of working opportunities awaiting him, whereas the image one had of MPs is people not standing until they are 40s/50s (clearly never always the case, but there does seem to have been a drive toward younger leaders in recent decades at least), whom if they served that long would almost certainly retire from public life completely. For someone like Hague and Blair, standing down is just marking the next phase of their employment, not an end.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days

    Excellent idea. She'd act as a one-woman deterrent to any monkey business by Johnny Foreigner.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory vacancies at present:

    Louth & Horncastle
    Hertsmere
    Hove
    Uxbridge & South Ruislip
    Thirsk & Malton
    Richmond (YORKS)
    Havant
    Bexhill & Battle

    In recent days vacancies have been filled in South Ribble, Hants NW, Suffolk S, Thanet S, Cannock Chase.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 18s

    Labour spin all about "massacre of moderates". But top ranked sackings so far are Paterson & Jones, 2 eurosceptics against gay marriage.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    BobaFett said:

    saddened said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    Count me in for twenty quid.

    I bore even myself at times, I'm so shit.

    Is this the fiendish underpass at work?
    I have no idea.

    Chiefly because I have no idea what your post means!
    Read Edmunds post about manipulating social media to make people look bad, it's a not hugely amusing piece of humour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days

    Excellent idea. She'd act as a one-woman deterrent to any monkey business by Johnny Foreigner.
    The first female Defence Secretary would do wonders.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Younger than usual retirements:

    Con: Charles Hendry, Lorraine Fullbrook, Laura Sandys, Jessica Lee, Aidan Burley, James Clappison, Mike Weatherley, John Randall, William Hague, David Willetts.

    Lab: Shaun Woodward, Meg Munn, Hazel Blears, Sian James, Dawn Primarolo.

    LD: Sarah Teather, David Heath, Ian Swales.

    I didn't know Ian Swales was retiring. I suppose after winning Redcar in such a massive swing, only to be faced with its inevitable return to the Labour fold, that might help persuade someone it might as well be time to stand down, in top of any personal reasons.

    The 'younger than usual' criteria is helpful, but of course length of service is also significant. Hague might be younger than usual if he were just a normal person retiring, but instead he's stepping down after 26 years with plenty of working opportunities awaiting him, whereas the image one had of MPs is people not standing until they are 40s/50s (clearly never always the case, but there does seem to have been a drive toward younger leaders in recent decades at least), whom if they served that long would almost certainly retire from public life completely. For someone like Hague and Blair, standing down is just marking the next phase of their employment, not an end.
    He had been reselected. Announced the U-turn a couple of days ago.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days

    Excellent idea. She'd act as a one-woman deterrent to any monkey business by Johnny Foreigner.
    The first female Defence Secretary would do wonders.
    TBH I don't believe it. It would be a hell of a promotion.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    What an odd way of setting forward with a Cabinet reshuffle - the news seems to be coming out in dribs and drabs.

    It always does. Ministers who've been sacked tend to confirm the fact (or at least, 'sources close to them' do). There's no real way of preventing it as you can't publish a new line-up without telling those you're sacking first, or ensuring that all those in it are content with their new jobs.
  • WitanWitan Posts: 26

    What an odd way of setting forward with a Cabinet reshuffle - the news seems to be coming out in dribs and drabs.

    Nothing new in that. Usually video of people coming and going in Downing Street smiling, scowling or keeping a straight face over a day or so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Speedy said:

    GCHQ built a tool called Underpass to manipulate online polls:
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak

    "manipulate online debates"
    OK, jokingly who is the GCHQ spy here?
    Would someone working for MI6 but seconded to GCHQ count as a 'GCHQ spy'? Purely a theoretical question, naturally.
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 12m
    I've always said cabinet reshuffles are Westminster bubble stuff. Yet my tweet line is smoking tonight. Interesting.

    Who outside the Westminster bubble, or a fan of the bubble like us saddoes, would be following Andrew Neil on twitter?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days

    Excellent idea. She'd act as a one-woman deterrent to any monkey business by Johnny Foreigner.
    The first female Defence Secretary would do wonders.
    TBH I don't believe it. It would be a hell of a promotion.
    Yes, but deserved.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Blimey, we appear to have had four years’ worth of Tory reshuffles in one day – And more fun to follow in the morning. I must admit to raising an eyebrow more than once, Damian Green?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Younger than usual retirements:

    Con: Charles Hendry, Lorraine Fullbrook, Laura Sandys, Jessica Lee, Aidan Burley, James Clappison, Mike Weatherley, John Randall, William Hague, David Willetts.

    Lab: Shaun Woodward, Meg Munn, Hazel Blears, Sian James, Dawn Primarolo.

    LD: Sarah Teather, David Heath, Ian Swales.

    From those, 5 out of 10 tories would be in danger of losing their seats , all 3 LD and none Labour.
    So that has some credence to the theory retirement not due to age or illness is politically motivated.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Davis supporters have been hoping Andrew Mitchell might make a return but not sign of it yet.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    This reshuffle while expected, has been so well managed its actually managed to take both the political Lobby and the Labour party by complete surprise.

    kle4 said:

    is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction?

    (a) Have to wait and see who's promoted.

    (b) Only if Labour decide to be helpful and attack on that basis.

    Actually, looks like they are:

    Labour brands reshuffle 'massacre of the moderates'

    Michael Dugher, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, is describing the reshuffle as the "massacre of the moderates". Here's his statement on it in full.

    "This speaks volumes about David Cameron's leadership.

    Four years of failure to promote women and now we have the massacre of the moderates...."



    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jul/14/mps-question-theresa-may-over-child-abuse-inquiry-and-surveillance-bill-politics-live-blog

    This looks like a trap for commentators (and Labour) alike. You announce who is going first - so everyone jumps to conclusions - then you announce the new appointments and whip the rug out from under them.

    It is almost as if they planned it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    AndyJS said:

    David Davis supporters have been hoping Andrew Mitchell might make a return but not sign of it yet.

    Can't happen until his legal issues have been resolved.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days

    Excellent idea. She'd act as a one-woman deterrent to any monkey business by Johnny Foreigner.
    The first female Defence Secretary would do wonders.
    TBH I don't believe it. It would be a hell of a promotion.
    Yes, but deserved.

    Rumours of Anna Soubry as Defence Secretary.

    Oh my days

    Excellent idea. She'd act as a one-woman deterrent to any monkey business by Johnny Foreigner.
    The first female Defence Secretary would do wonders.
    TBH I don't believe it. It would be a hell of a promotion.
    Yes, but deserved.
    The main advantage is that she wouldn't be AG.

    Her bluster worries me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    From BBC: Penny Mordaunt MP tweets: Saddened to hear David Willetts MP standing down at next election. Lovely and talented man who has served Havant well.

    A sign she has his job now?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Assuming it is true that Hammond is getting the Foreign Sec gig, it's a welcome promotion for a loyal and talented minister.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    There was Boris thinking that he was a shoo-in for Richmond, Surrey only to discover that he wasn't destined for that Richmond at all.

    There are many seats Boris would be a natural fit for. Richmond (Yorks) is not one of them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I'm right to assume Grant Shapps is going to stay on as Tory Chairman?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    DavidL said:

    Are we really sending Lansley to the EU? What on earth did they do to deserve that ? Are we not serious about even attempting to negotiate a basis on which to stay in ?

    Reports on Twitter suggest that the new Commissioner will not be a sitting MP... make of that what you will.
    The always reliable Twitter. In this case, the ducks do look to be lined up for Lansley. It certainly won't be anyone still in the cabinet after this week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    So tomorrow, we're going to have the DRIP legislation, and no Law Officers in place.....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    AndyJS said:

    David Davis supporters have been hoping Andrew Mitchell might make a return but not sign of it yet.

    Can't happen until his legal issues have been resolved.
    It doesn't stop so far Liam Fox though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 2014
    fitalass said:

    This reshuffle while expected, has been so well managed its actually managed to take both the political Lobby and the Labour party by complete surprise.

    kle4 said:

    is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction?

    (a) Have to wait and see who's promoted.

    (b) Only if Labour decide to be helpful and attack on that basis.

    Actually, looks like they are:

    Labour brands reshuffle 'massacre of the moderates'

    Michael Dugher, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, is describing the reshuffle as the "massacre of the moderates". Here's his statement on it in full.

    "This speaks volumes about David Cameron's leadership.

    Four years of failure to promote women and now we have the massacre of the moderates...."



    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jul/14/mps-question-theresa-may-over-child-abuse-inquiry-and-surveillance-bill-politics-live-blog

    This looks like a trap for commentators (and Labour) alike. You announce who is going first - so everyone jumps to conclusions - then you announce the new appointments and whip the rug out from under them.

    It is almost as if they planned it.
    If it all works out well - or as well as these things can - will it be the first genuinely well managed piece of political business from the Tories in quite some time? Perhaps my memory is unfair to them, but my instinctive reaction is that as a general rule, Cameron and his coterie are terrible at party management and media management.

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2014
    Grandiose said:

    The main advantage is that she wouldn't be AG.

    Her bluster worries me.

    She would be appalling as AG. She'd likely refer every sentence she didn't like to the Court of Appeal, would insist on appearing personally for the government in the Supreme Court, and probably even attempt to prosecute personally in high profile cases. It would make Baroness Scotland of Asthal's tenure seem like a golden age.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    I'm right to assume Grant Shapps is going to stay on as Tory Chairman?

    He's being replaced by Michael Green.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Its not a question of being 'more eurosceptic' - its a question of doing whats right with the right people.
    In terms of the future renegotiations with the EU - assuming UKIP do not split the righjt vote - then it makes sense to play the game with a strong team.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    saddened said:

    BobaFett said:

    saddened said:

    BobaFett said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I'd love to have a debate with tim on the reshuffle, I guess if I just picked any half a dozen recent names with less than 20 comments .. then I probably would be..

    If you think any of them could be tim you are tone deaf.

    The lack of intelligent opposition on here is getting so critical that I am wondering if the PB Tories should club together and establish a bursary for a bright young Labour poster to be paid to post say 15 times a day for a year.

    Count me in for twenty quid.

    I bore even myself at times, I'm so shit.

    Is this the fiendish underpass at work?
    I have no idea.

    Chiefly because I have no idea what your post means!
    Read Edmunds post about manipulating social media to make people look bad, it's a not hugely amusing piece of humour.
    Ha! Okay. But serious I am thinking of disintegrating Boba Fett through sheer boredom
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I like the Labour comment on the reshuffle:

    Michael Dugher MP Labour's Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office

    ""This reshuffle shows how weak David Cameron is, running scared of his own right wing. That's why he cannot focus on the big challenges facing families up and down the country."


    Replace 'reshuffle' with literally any topic of the week and you can use it over and over. In fact, they probably do. Granted, it's hard to come up with new ways to get that, true, point across consistently, but it's so obvious in this instance how everything but that word has been macroed in. Hell, replace the Labour MPs name and title and the same is true.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2014
    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    This reshuffle while expected, has been so well managed its actually managed to take both the political Lobby and the Labour party by complete surprise.

    kle4 said:

    is the talk of the continuing wounding of the centre-right tories in favour of the full-right a) true, and b) likely to gain any traction?

    (a) Have to wait and see who's promoted.

    (b) Only if Labour decide to be helpful and attack on that basis.

    Actually, looks like they are:

    Labour brands reshuffle 'massacre of the moderates'

    Michael Dugher, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, is describing the reshuffle as the "massacre of the moderates". Here's his statement on it in full.

    "This speaks volumes about David Cameron's leadership.

    Four years of failure to promote women and now we have the massacre of the moderates...."



    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jul/14/mps-question-theresa-may-over-child-abuse-inquiry-and-surveillance-bill-politics-live-blog

    This looks like a trap for commentators (and Labour) alike. You announce who is going first - so everyone jumps to conclusions - then you announce the new appointments and whip the rug out from under them.

    It is almost as if they planned it.
    If it all works out well - or as well as these things can - will it be the first genuinely well managed piece of political business from the Tories in quite some time? Perhaps my memory is unfair to them, but my instinctive reaction is that as a general rule, Cameron and his coterie are terrible at party management and media management.

    Just look at the date and you will discover that most people might be on vacation so they wont notice the reshuffle.
    Logically one would do it when people are paying attention.
    Could be worse, he could have done it yesterday during the world cup final.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Sorry my I also add that given that we really have not had - and not had the need for - a real reshuffle for over 4 years then we should not be surprised that this is a failrly widespread one. In truth it does not seem that big really. Clarke is 74 and Hague is in fact staying for the next 10 months; it is not as iof they have fallen out.
This discussion has been closed.