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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

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  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @kle4 - I wasn't being entirely serious!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2013
    MSmithsonPB So overall tonight: LAB win one and lose one: CON win one and lose one: Ukip win one: LDs lose one.

    So by that,lib dems big losers tonight.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Ukip must be worried... Only gone from 2% to 18% in the last year... The wheels are coming off... Might ask for my £30 back
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    @kle4 - I wasn't being entirely serious!

    Given the level of capitulating madness among some Tories lately, I trust you can forgive me for thinking you may have succumbed?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    MSmithsonPB Result from the Rotherham council by-election:- UKIP 1143 Labour 1039 Conservative 107 BNP 80 TUSC 61 LD 28

    labour,be very afraid - lol

    It will be a tragedy for Labour if UKIP poll today's levels nationally
    Yes tim, a tragedy of surpassing beauty; hubris triumphant and a gutting of the unions.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @kle4 - Fair point!
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    AveryLP said:

    The ward is in Wentworth and Dearne constituency.

    Bye-bye John Healey.
    Care to put a price on that prospect?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    This is Rawmarsh:

    http://www.rotherhamgolf.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Gallery/pages/Steelworks_jpg.htm

    Its a steelworks surrounded by old terraced streets.

    If seeing heavy industry is your thing then go to Rawmarsh.

    Its about as ultra old Labour as you can get.

    Its about as little metro Labour as you can get.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited May 2013
    @ScreamingEaglet

    "If I were using that microscope right now on Roger, I still wouldn't be able to find an original thought in his head."

    My friend and neighbour is making a film about the life of Eilleen Grey here in the South of France where she designed her famous house E-1027. To this end I have spent the evening going through with her as many samples of her and Corbusier's furniture as we could find.

    I thought few things could be more tedious until i've just read what passes for an insult on here.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    Ukip must be worried... Only gone from 2% to 18% in the last year... The wheels are coming off... Might ask for my £30 back

    16% is the sweet spot for Labour.
    Unite should fund UKIP
    I'd settle for that in terms of betting ;)

    And as I have only ever voted for Labour in my life and still have a illogical preference for them over conservatives (in the hope they might be more influenced by Jon Cruddas and Maurice Glasman than Harriet Harman and Diane Abbott)... So be it

    LibLabCon who cares

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Paywall

    A begging letter admits that UKIP is short of money, policies and personnel — and puts off voters because they fear that an insurgent Nigel Farage will let Labour into power.

    In a significant re-casting of its pitch to would-be supporters, the party is asking voters to “lend” their support for next year’s European elections but to give no further commitment.

    Any donations will be spent solely on the 2014 campaign, an effort to calm fears among traditional Conservative voters that the main beneficiary should they defect to UKIP would be Ed Miliband. The letter from Stuart Wheeler, the party’s treasurer, which has been seen by The Times, was sent on Monday, and addressed to “Dear Fellow-Eurosceptic”.

    “A lot of you hesitate to support UKIP, whether financially or otherwise, for fear that to do so might allow Labour in when the next general election comes,” Mr Wheeler wrote.

    To combat such concerns, the party is setting up a special bank account, the “2014 Campaign Account”. UKIP is already expected to capitalise on public disenchantment with the three main parties by winning more seats in next year’s poll. Mr Wheeler said that UKIP’s recent political successes have “disappointingly, not yet resulted in a surge of donations”.

    Is that a letter addressed to Conservative Party donors, or a mass email to UKIP's spam list?


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Roger said:

    @ScreamingEaglet

    "If I were using that microscope right now on Roger, I still wouldn't be able to find an original thought in his head."

    My friend and neighbour is making a film about the life of Eilleen Grey here in the South of France where she designed her famous house E-1027. To this end I have spent the evening going through with her as many samples of her and Corbusier's furniture as we could find.

    I thought few things could be more tedious until I read what passes for an insult on here.

    Tedious?

    have you forgotten the threads on whether AV obtained a more democratic result than FPTP?

    PS - I love you really.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    @AnotherDave, it doesn't say.

    The other bit from the piece was that interesting

    According to Wheeler, UKIP has “pitifully few” election agents and needs money to spend on polling.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    This is Rawmarsh:

    http://www.rotherhamgolf.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Gallery/pages/Steelworks_jpg.htm

    Its a steelworks surrounded by old terraced streets.

    If seeing heavy industry is your thing then go to Rawmarsh.

    Its about as ultra old Labour as you can get.

    Its about as little metro Labour as you can get.

    As Avery has declined to offer me a price on the Labour win at Wentworth in GE2015, perhaps you will?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053
    samonipad said:


    careful. If you continue to generalise Scots in a monolithic way like that you will have @SouthamObserver pulling you up...
    Oh no sorry you are left wing aren't you, he'll let it go

    Gosh, SO has put a feather up your rear end.

    Farage blustering about Britishness and stating that UKIP were now the true national party with support South, North, East and West turns many Scots pretty monolithic I find.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    MikeK said:

    tim said:

    MSmithsonPB Result from the Rotherham council by-election:- UKIP 1143 Labour 1039 Conservative 107 BNP 80 TUSC 61 LD 28

    labour,be very afraid - lol

    It will be a tragedy for Labour if UKIP poll today's levels nationally
    Yes tim, a tragedy of surpassing beauty; hubris triumphant and a gutting of the unions.

    Not sure how UKIP lead to a "gutting of the unions" if the brain dead Tory old golf clubbers had any sense they'd be pro Trade Union in contrast to the Tory leadership they want to replace.
    Given the UKIP demographic many of those over 65 year old men are ex trades unionists.
    Well it's simple, tim. The unions as a body seek power to make the unions even stronger, seemingly for their worker members but in reality, more power for the bosses, er leaders. The only way for political power is through the Labour party. Sans Labour, and very shortly sans union power and eventually sans unions.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    kle4 said:

    I suppose the Conservatives could do a deal with UKIP whereby UKIP get a free run in their strongholds in the northern urban areas.

    Wouldn't that undermine UKIPs efforts to draw voters away from Labour, as despite their protests they would confirm their status as Tory-Hard (as opposed to LDs being Labour-lite) and so trigger the same Anyone but them reaction as the conservatives in the end?
    This pact rubbish still being talked about by the EU headbangers in the tory party and Farage even seems to be encouraging it. For the moment. As you rightly point out the nature of the protest vote would be severely curtailed should it be firmly linked to the tories but it serves Nigel's purpose to encourage the tories to lose their collective minds over Europe and it's not as if they ever need that much prompting to anyway.

    Nigel's desperation for an MP or two might prompt some very silly moves come the GE but only at the expense of his total protest vote which is going to come up against the brick wall of FPTP anyway.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    UKIP 1143 Labour 1039

    Alternatively

    Looked at the alternatives and made their own decision 1143
    Voted the same way as their parents & grandparents etc 1039

    If people start thinking for themselves then the establishment parties have serious problems.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    @Tim

    "That's a class post."

    Thank you.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    UKIP 1143 Labour 1039

    Alternatively

    Looked at the alternatives and made their own decision 1143
    Voted the same way as their parents & grandparents etc 1039

    If people start thinking for themselves then the establishment parties have serious problems.

    That seat will be an easy Labour hold at a GE. Do you think otherwise?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013

    Paywall

    A begging letter admits that UKIP is short of money, policies and personnel — and puts off voters because they fear that an insurgent Nigel Farage will let Labour into power.

    In a significant re-casting of its pitch to would-be supporters, the party is asking voters to “lend” their support for next year’s European elections but to give no further commitment.

    Any donations will be spent solely on the 2014 campaign, an effort to calm fears among traditional Conservative voters that the main beneficiary should they defect to UKIP would be Ed Miliband. The letter from Stuart Wheeler, the party’s treasurer, which has been seen by The Times, was sent on Monday, and addressed to “Dear Fellow-Eurosceptic”.

    “A lot of you hesitate to support UKIP, whether financially or otherwise, for fear that to do so might allow Labour in when the next general election comes,” Mr Wheeler wrote.

    To combat such concerns, the party is setting up a special bank account, the “2014 Campaign Account”. UKIP is already expected to capitalise on public disenchantment with the three main parties by winning more seats in next year’s poll. Mr Wheeler said that UKIP’s recent political successes have “disappointingly, not yet resulted in a surge of donations”.

    Is that a letter addressed to Conservative Party donors, or a mass email to UKIP's spam list?


    There is nothing wrong in UKIP saying it needs funds. In fact UKIP is short of nearly everything that oils the wheels of a great political party. Indeed, UKIP have been caught short by their own successes and are a bit bemused by how quickly things have changed. A UKIP conference on 8th June should go a long way in making changes to improve matters.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182

    samonipad said:


    careful. If you continue to generalise Scots in a monolithic way like that you will have @SouthamObserver pulling you up...
    Oh no sorry you are left wing aren't you, he'll let it go

    Gosh, SO has put a feather up your rear end.

    Farage blustering about Britishness and stating that UKIP were now the true national party with support South, North, East and West turns many Scots pretty monolithic I find.

    If you say so. I just thought as king of the petty hair splitters he might point out that not all scots felt the same way, as he does for me when I mention working class people

    But maybe it's just coincidence that he only pulls up those who disagree with him politically

    It's possible

    I'd be happy to vote for Scottish independence, what's the big deal?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    Ukip must be worried... Only gone from 2% to 18% in the last year... The wheels are coming off... Might ask for my £30 back

    16% is the sweet spot for Labour.
    Unite should fund UKIP
    I'd settle for that in terms of betting ;)

    And as I have only ever voted for Labour in my life and still have a illogical preference for them over conservatives (in the hope they might be more influenced by Jon Cruddas and Maurice Glasman than Harriet Harman and Diane Abbott)... So be it

    LibLabCon who cares


    You'll be surprised how influential Jon Cruddas will prove
    Yes - it will be a Blue Labour manifesto I should think. That's my guess.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Bobajob said:

    This is Rawmarsh:

    http://www.rotherhamgolf.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Gallery/pages/Steelworks_jpg.htm

    Its a steelworks surrounded by old terraced streets.

    If seeing heavy industry is your thing then go to Rawmarsh.

    Its about as ultra old Labour as you can get.

    Its about as little metro Labour as you can get.

    As Avery has declined to offer me a price on the Labour win at Wentworth in GE2015, perhaps you will?
    Why should I do that, Labour will win Wentworth in 2015 but the old Labour voting block is crumbling.

    When the Eds are in government it will start to disintegrate.

    Do you think the Rawmarsh result is anything other than worrying for Labour ?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    Avery

    Pleased to see you as I've been attempting to ask you a question for the last week.

    Namely when can we expect to have a monthly trade surplus.

    As this government is committed to ending the budget deficit and rebalancing the economy surely it wont go for a full five years without a single month of trade surplus ?

    And after all the economic news keeps on getting 'better and better' doesn't it ;-)

    I didn't miss your question, ar. In fact it has got me looking much more closely at the underlying figures.

    What you need to do though is separate out Oil and Gas trade from the balance of trade figures.

    2005 was the last year that Oil production was higher than domestic oil demand. In 2010, 14% or the UK's oil requirements needed to be imported. By 2015, this is due to rise to 35%.

    With Gas, the crossover occurred a year earlier in 2004. Import dependency in 2010 was 41% forecast to rise to 45% in 2015.

    The Balance of Trade figures are so sensitive to Oil and Gas trade that there can be no surplus without a significant change in the steep decline in output from the North Sea. DECC are currently forecasting flat output between now and 2015 (at 40 thousand tonnes of oil) with an upside of 50 thousand.

    The BoE have let slip that oil output resulting from new investments is likely to impact on growth (and therefore BoT) as early as this year rather than in 2014 as previously believed.

    I am looking closely at this to see where it might come from. There is only one active oilfield which is both new and increasing output, the Buzzard field, but it is both the largest discovery in the past 25 years and alone accounts for 20% of output. So critical is it to the national economy that the BBC run stories whenever there is a halt to production!

    It may be that the Buzzard field upping its output will stabilise the overall decline: if Buzzard equals its January output (80% of its monthly peak last year) throughout 2013 it will account for 10 thousand tonnes or 25% of forecast for the year.

    Even so new large fields need to come online for.the "best outcome estimates" of 50 thousand tonnes to be met. And for a balance of output to national demand current output would need to be doubled by 2015, which currently looks a lot more than just unlikely.

    Anyway, I haven't finished my research so will keep your fires burning as I progress.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    @AnotherDave, it doesn't say.

    The other bit from the piece was that interesting

    According to Wheeler, UKIP has “pitifully few” election agents and needs money to spend on polling.

    The 1st quarter 2013 donation numbers from the Electoral Commission came out the other day. UKIP still miles behind the LDs in reportable donations.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-funding/party-finance-analysis-Q1-2013

    Things didn't really kick off for UKIP until Eastleigh, which was late Feb, so the 2nd quarter numbers might look different.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Bobajob said:

    AveryLP said:

    The ward is in Wentworth and Dearne constituency.

    Bye-bye John Healey.
    Care to put a price on that prospect?
    Let's take things one step at a time, Bobajob.

    I never heard back from you on my last offer of a bet.

    You went "sharply easier" as they say on the trading floors of the City.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    Paywall

    A begging letter admits that UKIP is short of money, policies and personnel — and puts off voters because they fear that an insurgent Nigel Farage will let Labour into power.

    In a significant re-casting of its pitch to would-be supporters, the party is asking voters to “lend” their support for next year’s European elections but to give no further commitment.

    Any donations will be spent solely on the 2014 campaign, an effort to calm fears among traditional Conservative voters that the main beneficiary should they defect to UKIP would be Ed Miliband. The letter from Stuart Wheeler, the party’s treasurer, which has been seen by The Times, was sent on Monday, and addressed to “Dear Fellow-Eurosceptic”.

    “A lot of you hesitate to support UKIP, whether financially or otherwise, for fear that to do so might allow Labour in when the next general election comes,” Mr Wheeler wrote.

    To combat such concerns, the party is setting up a special bank account, the “2014 Campaign Account”. UKIP is already expected to capitalise on public disenchantment with the three main parties by winning more seats in next year’s poll. Mr Wheeler said that UKIP’s recent political successes have “disappointingly, not yet resulted in a surge of donations”.

    Is that a letter addressed to Conservative Party donors, or a mass email to UKIP's spam list?
    There is nothing wrong in UKIP saying it needs funds. In fact UKIP is short of nearly everything that oils the wheels of a great political party. Indeed, UKIP have been caught short by their own successes and are a bit bemused by how quickly things have changed. A UKIP conference on 8th June should go a long way in making changes to improve matters.
    All parties nag for money. That's not an issue. What's curious about the Times piece is that Mr Wheeler's letter seems to be pitched at Conservative Party loyalists.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    When EdM became Labour leader 3 years ago perhaps he thought we would now be having excited talk about Labour nearly winning a council byelection in Wentworth.

    Wentworth, Berkshire that is not Wentworth, Rotherham.

    Its not a brave new dawn of an imminent Labour golden age is it.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    rotherham, hehe
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Nigel should seek advice from Miss Annabel Goldie (Scottish Conservative) on how to deal with a rag tag of demonstrators.
    I do not agree with her politics, but hell would have frozen over before Annabel set foot in that police vehicle.
    As for Ian Gray, well, that's another story.
    samonipad said:
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    As for Ian Gray, well, that's another story.

    Is he still hiding?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I believe he is seeking help from a therapist to overcome his fear of ready made sandwiches.
    Neil said:


    As for Ian Gray, well, that's another story.

    Is he still hiding?
This discussion has been closed.