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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edg

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    edited July 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    Tom Watson ?
    I watched the Blackadder episode about the Witch Finder the other night -very funny
    Witch-smeller Pursuivant!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witchsmeller_Pursuivant
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Death penalty - only for Piracy with violence and cold calling.
    Nothing more

    What!! Not even for arson in HM shipyards?!
    Certainly not. 100 hours community service for that minor offence.
    Castration for wearing a hat in church though, I think that's lenient, but Godly.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Rexel56 said:

    Is it really possible to make a referral to the AG that quickly.... Doesn't any referral have to be accompanied by a report prepared by the CPS setting out the circumstances? Maybe a member of the public or politician has triggered the process by asking for such a report to be prepared. One hopes it's not a vexatious referral designed to embarrass the AG

    I don't think Mr Grieve is susceptible to such embarrassment, he is very fun to watch up against those whose misdirected passion exceeds their intelligence and education.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Given what he did to 'C' I am astonished he got away with what he did. Here are the judge's sentencing remarks... http://www.courtnewsuk.co.uk/?news_id=37470

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014

    Memo to Dave: If it's not too much trouble, may I respectfully suggest Hague for the Commissioner gig and Andrew Mitchell as Foreign Sec? Not only does that solve several problems for you in one slick double-flip, but (checks old betting slips from the 'written off' drawer) it would do great things for the Sussex economy

    About the only EU post I can see Hague being offered and accepting is President of the European Council to succeed Rompoy on 1 December 2014.

    It would suit Cameron's agenda of asserting the power of the Council over the Commission and European Parliament and leave the Council and the 'Northern European Alliance' with a check and balance on Juncker.

    Also given the mutual respect which exists between William and Hillary, the usual two terms in office for the EC President should greatly improve transatlantic relations both for the EU and UK, if or when Hilary takes up residence in the White House.

    I am not sure whether Hague succeeding Rompuy qualifies as a Sussex economy boosting event, but it does make political sense and may even explain one of the reasons Dave created such a public stink over Juncker's appointment.

    I note that Rompuy and Barroso solve potential conflicts of interest by sharing a breakfast in Brussels once a week. The prospect of the EU's power struggles being solved in a battle between a bottle of cognac and fourteen pints is much anticipated.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.


    You sure this isn't party politics talking because you fear the Brittany dossier, or the Haute de la Garenne?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    I would personally do a lot of things before watching live a professional bike race. Its over in about 20 seconds isn't it?
    I once accidentally got caught up in one in Belguim and the crowds were huge just to see a peleton go past in a blink of an eye.

    Thought Yorkshire folk were more sensible to go mad over something like this. Its not as if its a wholesome sport or event given its past drug history

    Race takes longer to get past you and is more interesting if you head to a hill.

    I fully expect Jenkin Road to be packed !
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Away, don't forget the British Grand Prix. Nyoooooooooom!

    Mr Dancer.
    Petra is a fighter not a Kvitova?
    Ah Sunil, I was reading a story about possibly the best tabloid headline ever. Not sure if it is apocryphal or not but the report was about a mental patient absconding and committing a series of rapes in a launderette before fleeing the scene. The headline was thus NUT SCREWS WASHERS AND BOLTS.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited July 2014
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Death penalty - only for Piracy with violence and cold calling.
    Nothing more

    What!! Not even for arson in HM shipyards?!
    Or for interfering with royal succession by having carnal relationships with the Monarch's eldest daughter, provided that she is unmarried?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Away, don't forget the British Grand Prix. Nyoooooooooom!

    Mr Dancer.
    Petra is a fighter not a Kvitova?
    Ah Sunil, I was reading a story about possibly the best tabloid headline ever. Not sure if it is apocryphal or not but the report was about a mental patient absconding and committing a series of rapes in a launderette before fleeing the scene. The headline was thus NUT SCREWS WASHERS AND BOLTS.
    Very good Jim!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    France v Germany about to kick off!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    isam said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    You sure this isn't party politics talking because you fear the Brittany dossier, or the Haute de la Garenne?

    No surprisingly I don't view things through a partisan prism. Crimes need to be investigated and any shielding of criminals exposed, but it should be done soberly and not with the sense of glee which seems to be attending this.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.
    The much needed investigation of crimes is one thing, but there is too much glee in certain quarters being attached to it. I think the joy that will be evident on the front pages of certain newspapers at the destruction of Rolf Harris will be somewhat distasteful. Also I think that we should be looking more at how we can ensure that we aren't always prosecuting this crime decades later, and how we can ensure that young people are better protected and so that the campaigns of sustained abuse that have been exposed cannot be perpetrated. Hounding old men for crimes carried out half a lifetime ago won't achieve all that.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Away, don't forget the British Grand Prix. Nyoooooooooom!

    Mr Dancer.
    Petra is a fighter not a Kvitova?
    Ah Sunil, I was reading a story about possibly the best tabloid headline ever. Not sure if it is apocryphal or not but the report was about a mental patient absconding and committing a series of rapes in a launderette before fleeing the scene. The headline was thus NUT SCREWS WASHERS AND BOLTS.
    In my mind, anything is going to struggle to beat the infamous "Inver Caley go Ballistic, Celtic are Atrocious"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.
    What an awful smear on witches... I fancy a few quid, I might set up a firm of lawyers representing all green skinned hags who feel slighted by this outrage
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    You sure this isn't party politics talking because you fear the Brittany dossier, or the Haute de la Garenne?
    No surprisingly I don't view things through a partisan prism. Crimes need to be investigated and any shielding of criminals exposed, but it should be done soberly and not with the sense of glee which seems to be attending this.

    Ha it is a bit surprising given your monicker!!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Lennon said:

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Away, don't forget the British Grand Prix. Nyoooooooooom!

    Mr Dancer.
    Petra is a fighter not a Kvitova?
    Ah Sunil, I was reading a story about possibly the best tabloid headline ever. Not sure if it is apocryphal or not but the report was about a mental patient absconding and committing a series of rapes in a launderette before fleeing the scene. The headline was thus NUT SCREWS WASHERS AND BOLTS.
    In my mind, anything is going to struggle to beat the infamous "Inver Caley go Ballistic, Celtic are Atrocious"
    *Super* Caley ....

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=super+caley+go+ballistic&num=50&tbm=isch
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Speaking of witches, UKIP achieved only 3% in Pendle...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.
    What an awful smear on witches... I fancy a few quid, I might set up a firm of lawyers representing all green skinned hags who feel slighted by this outrage
    Cherie Blair has already cornered that niche legal market using the rather unfair advantage of personal experience.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Germany are still my favourites for the whole thing. My only reservation is that even England managed to win the world cup in England.

    That said, I think Brazil go out tonight.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496

    Germany will go two up and the French will immediately assist them in build up play for the remainder of the game. Everyone will be disappointed that one of them got through.

    Woolie, I have Germany down as winners so I will be happy
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    Germany are still my favourites for the whole thing. My only reservation is that even England managed to win the world cup in England.

    That said, I think Brazil go out tonight.

    Brazil is the best team there but for my money Colombia is second best, and it is a shame the draw denies us seeing them both in the final.

    Ladbrokes 9/2 Argentina/Brazil final may be value -- Hills go 3/1. The best team versus the best player.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    France v Germany about to kick off!

    How long before France surrenders?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    So Germany take the lead 1-0
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    Theresa Gorman.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    5 years and 9 months doesn't seem particularly lenient to me. He's not been convicted of rape.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    So Germany take the lead 1-0

    Oh dear
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    malcolmg said:

    Germany will go two up and the French will immediately assist them in build up play for the remainder of the game. Everyone will be disappointed that one of them got through.

    Woolie, I have Germany down as winners so I will be happy
    Well, profit from the misery of German success is acceptable
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    5 years and 9 months doesn't seem particularly lenient to me. He's not been convicted of rape.

    it isn't in then least bit lenient. The judge will have been very careful to make sure it isn't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    Germany are still my favourites for the whole thing. My only reservation is that even England managed to win the world cup in England.

    That said, I think Brazil go out tonight.

    Brazil is the best team there but for my money Colombia is second best, and it is a shame the draw denies us seeing them both in the final.

    Ladbrokes 9/2 Argentina/Brazil final may be value -- Hills go 3/1. The best team versus the best player.
    On the play to date I would say Columbia have impressed me the most, then Germany. Brazil have looked nervous and too reliant on Neymar who has been excellent. A Columbia Germany final would be great.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.
    The much needed investigation of crimes is one thing, but there is too much glee in certain quarters being attached to it. I think the joy that will be evident on the front pages of certain newspapers at the destruction of Rolf Harris will be somewhat distasteful. Also I think that we should be looking more at how we can ensure that we aren't always prosecuting this crime decades later, and how we can ensure that young people are better protected and so that the campaigns of sustained abuse that have been exposed cannot be perpetrated. Hounding old men for crimes carried out half a lifetime ago won't achieve all that.
    Absolutely. The very same papers that amongst their flock had the countdown till Charlotte is legal, and wanted you to gawk at sixteen year olds titanias.
    The Brasseye special on paedophilia should be required viewing as it perfectly sums up the problem of hysteria. You'll also find that a lot of witches go on witch hunts.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You are welcome to update it yourself, you know! Just hit the 'edit' button!
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    Margaret Hodges would be a good choice, followed by Keith Vaz. They would love the publicity.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    PB June average Lab 338 Con 262 LD 22 oth 28

    EICIPM
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You are welcome to update it yourself, you know! Just hit the 'edit' button!
    Thanks - but I was told that before on here - when I hit edit I get greeted with a whole pile of gobbledygook text plus a request to create an account - sorry but my IT skills aren't up to it.

    Hopefully whoever maintains the listing will manage to get it right - a few months ago there were numerous errors but it has been much better recently.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    edited July 2014
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You are welcome to update it yourself, you know! Just hit the 'edit' button!
    Thanks - but I was told that before on here - when I hit edit I get greeted with a whole pile of gobbledygook text plus a request to create an account - sorry but my IT skills aren't up to it.

    Hopefully whoever maintains the listing will manage to get it right - a few months ago there were numerous errors but it has been much better recently.
    It's not rocket-science! You don't have to create an account, though your IP will be recorded that's all.

    The gobbledygook is the actual text on the page.

    Someone has already added an "update tag".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hoping Germany keep their lead in Rio. I lost £50 earlier today with Wimbledon bets and am relying on this match to make good my losses.
  • perdix said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    Margaret Hodges would be a good choice, followed by Keith Vaz. They would love the publicity.
    Margaret Hodges could explain her record in Islington's child protection.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    #worldcup2014 - looks like France will go the same way as WWII - but without the Brits and Yanks to help them out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Some interesting articles on Scotland in the Spectator, James Forsyth on what Britain will lose if a Yes vote, http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9253771/what-will-be-left/ and Simon Heffer on how a Yes would set England free
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9253661/england-unchained/
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The polls listing has been done now. The trick is to copy a previous line from the same pollster and make amendments as necessary.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Great cartoon of Salmond as the Statute of Liberty
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/cartoon/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,815
    The tale of Rolf Harris and his fall from grace is a sad one, but any bitter sweet feeling resulting from this case must not hinder for a second the investigation of crimes against children. 'Hounding' 'old men' is a vital necessity if we're to demonstrate that such crimes will be punished no matter how influential or powerful the perpetrators.

    In other news, the FSA get a child to stab a Syrian soldier (graphic): http://friendsofsyria.co/2014/07/04/are-these-the-moderate-terrorists-you-want-to-give-500-million-to-obama/

    These are the 'nice' ones by the way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Hillary gaffe 'There's not just a common language, but a common set of values that we can fall back on," she said. "It doesn't matter in our country whether it's a Republican or a Democrat or frankly, in your country, whether it's a Conservative or a Tory' http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/07/04/clinton-gaffe-former-secretary-state-confuses-britain-political-parties/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited July 2014

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You are welcome to update it yourself, you know! Just hit the 'edit' button!
    Thanks - but I was told that before on here - when I hit edit I get greeted with a whole pile of gobbledygook text plus a request to create an account - sorry but my IT skills aren't up to it.

    Hopefully whoever maintains the listing will manage to get it right - a few months ago there were numerous errors but it has been much better recently.
    It's not rocket-science! You don't have to create an account, though your IP will be recorded that's all.

    The gobbledygook is the actual text on the page.

    Someone has already added an "update tag".

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The polls listing has been done now. The trick is to copy a previous line from the same pollster and make amendments as necessary.

    OK, many thanks to you both.

    Someone has done the hard work whilst I was watching the 2nd half of France v Germany - thanks again!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,815
    Socrates said:

    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.

    Completely agree -totally innapropriate



  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Simon,

    "looks like France will go the same way as WWII,"

    Exactly. Once those panzers rolled over the halfway line, the French were running back to Paris and discarding their weapons as quickly as possible. But I still think Argentina will sneak it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You are welcome to update it yourself, you know! Just hit the 'edit' button!
    Thanks - but I was told that before on here - when I hit edit I get greeted with a whole pile of gobbledygook text plus a request to create an account - sorry but my IT skills aren't up to it.

    Hopefully whoever maintains the listing will manage to get it right - a few months ago there were numerous errors but it has been much better recently.
    It's not rocket-science! You don't have to create an account, though your IP will be recorded that's all.

    The gobbledygook is the actual text on the page.

    Someone has already added an "update tag".

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The polls listing has been done now. The trick is to copy a previous line from the same pollster and make amendments as necessary.

    OK, many thanks to you both.

    Someone has done the hard work whilst I was watching the 2nd half of France v Germany - thanks again!
    Not exactly hard work, it took me less than a minute. The graph is harder work, one contributor does it in Excel I think and periodically re-imports the data.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    You are welcome to update it yourself, you know! Just hit the 'edit' button!
    Thanks - but I was told that before on here - when I hit edit I get greeted with a whole pile of gobbledygook text plus a request to create an account - sorry but my IT skills aren't up to it.

    Hopefully whoever maintains the listing will manage to get it right - a few months ago there were numerous errors but it has been much better recently.
    It's not rocket-science! You don't have to create an account, though your IP will be recorded that's all.

    The gobbledygook is the actual text on the page.

    Someone has already added an "update tag".

    MikeL said:

    When is the Wiki polling graph going to be updated? It was last done on 5th June - if it was done again now it would look much better for Con.

    I also notice that the polls listing has not been updated to include today's YouGov (though today's Populus is shown).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The polls listing has been done now. The trick is to copy a previous line from the same pollster and make amendments as necessary.

    OK, many thanks to you both.

    Someone has done the hard work whilst I was watching the 2nd half of France v Germany - thanks again!
    Not exactly hard work, it took me less than a minute. The graph is harder work, one contributor does it in Excel I think and periodically re-imports the data.

    I put a note on the creators talk page, so hopefully this spurs him into action.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    CD13 said:

    Simon,

    "looks like France will go the same way as WWII,"

    Exactly. Once those panzers rolled over the halfway line, the French were running back to Paris and discarding their weapons as quickly as possible. But I still think Argentina will sneak it.

    No; The Argies are corned beef eating surrender monkeys, will not beat the Germans panzergrenadiers!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    isam said:

    ..are we about to see an unprecedented shift away from the Westminster parties?

    What would you deem to be unprecedented in this context?
    Ukip winning the euros was unprecedented, however much it is played down on here
    No playing down of that by me, but the general election is a sterner test, because of FPTP and the result determining the choice of Government.

    It's just that there are a few precedents that could set the bar quite high. So, for example, the Green Party won an MP at the last GE, so UKIP winning an MP in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented. Similarly, the Alliance increased their vote by 11.6 percentage points in 1983, so UKIP increasing their vote to 14% in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented.

    In 1906 the Labour Party - contesting only their second general election - increased their Parliamentary representation from 2 seats to 29. Given that UKIP have contested general elections since 1997 an advance to 20-odd seats for UKIP would arguably not be unprecedented - depending on how far back you want to go.

    I'm just curious what level of move away from LibLabCon would qualify as unprecedented in Herdson's view.
    Labour in 1906 doesn't really count: they were gifted their pre-1918 seats in alliance with the Liberals, in the same way as the Liberal Unionists were by the Conservatives (presumably the Liberals expected to eventually subsume Labour within them in like manner and may have done had not WWI led to both the Asquith-LG split and the Con-Lib coalition).

    I'd suggest that a 20% non-ConLabLD share would be unprecedented and possible. There have been big rises in minor party support before - Feb 1974 and 1983 spring to mind - but these were to parties already in Westminster, if in only a small way. 2015 by contrast would be mainly an increase in vote share to a party without any MP (or at least, which had never won one at a GE before).

    There are other possibilities, including UKIP winning several seats from a standing start. I don't think any party has gained more than two seats having never won one before (excluding parties formed by splits / defections of sitting MPs).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    I hope this header is supplementary to, not a replacement of, the Herdson weekend slot?

    No indeed, I've uploaded tomorrow's piece just now. It's a little bit lighter in tone, after all the analysis I did for this one.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    O/T if there are any Whovians about, new teaser has been released with a familiar voice. If you are spoiler averse don't click.

    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s7/doctor-who/news/a582299/doctor-who-series-8-teaser-hints-at-return-of-classic-enemy-watch.html#~oJ4zHN5njBlDpG
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    JackW said:

    I recall the early days of PB when JohnO thought tripping to Bournemouth was a LSD binge for coffin dodgers and a young Mike Smithson was barely out of University sandals, that poll averaging was considered to be a curse worse than a pleasant dinner with Hannibal Lecter.

    Salad days, salad days ....

    Averaging polls is a really poor way of finding the true level of current support across the country: the best pollster is invariably better than an average of all of them.

    On the other hand, a well-constructed average can tell you a lot about trends and changes in support, which is what the pbc average seeks to do.

    Taking polls over a month inevitably means that some polls were conducted some time ago. That's fine: it's not meant to give any kind of assessment as to current opinion. What it is designed to do is cut through both the statistical fluctuations and the transient effects of short-lived news stories to get at the underlying medium-term trends and the events that have had a real, lasting impact.

    As long as we don't try to force poll averaging to do something it can't, there's a lot we can learn from it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

    I thought it was unduly harsh.
    Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.
    It's paedogeddon
    Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.
    This is exactly the sort of thing that was said to dissuade people from coming forwards for years. What has happened in past decades was that very powerful people were considered to be immune from their actions, and victims were intimidated into silence by assurance that nothing would ever happen to their predators. We now rightfully have media coverage fully exposing this national failure and having full trials, with all the protections that English law gives the accused, before a jury of their peers. Calling this much needed examination of these crimes a "witch hunt" is rather repugnant, in my opinion.
    The much needed investigation of crimes is one thing, but there is too much glee in certain quarters being attached to it. I think the joy that will be evident on the front pages of certain newspapers at the destruction of Rolf Harris will be somewhat distasteful. Also I think that we should be looking more at how we can ensure that we aren't always prosecuting this crime decades later, and how we can ensure that young people are better protected and so that the campaigns of sustained abuse that have been exposed cannot be perpetrated. Hounding old men for crimes carried out half a lifetime ago won't achieve all that.
    You're describing the bringing of a criminal to justice as "hounding an old man for a crime carried out a lifetime ago". You've moved from a controversial view to appalling apologism. How exactly do you detect this "glee" in the headlines and how does it differ from, say, giving attention to the fact that someone that was at the centre of public life committed a number of crimes uninvestigated for years? It's jaw dropping to me that your response to all this is that people are being too nasty to a paedophile that assaulted children, rather than horror at what he did and that he got away with it for so long. Some people seem to have an evolutionary urge to side with the powerful over the vulnerable.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Also, what was the judge's reasoning for this?

    "Harris is likely to serve half of the sentence in prison and was told he would not have to pay compensation to his victims."
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    If it is indeed true, as rumoured, that Andrew Mitchell is trying to get Plebgate settled out of court, then perhaps he's the preferred candidate. He'd tick a lot of boxes.

    Is he too junior though for a big post? What economic or legal experience does he have?
    Catherine Ashton got the No2 post last time. Mitchell is certainly more senior than she was.

    That said, the EUHCFA job seems to have been offered to the UK when it seemed that Blair or D Miliband would take it (bet he wishes he did now!). It still rankles with me that I got 25/1 on it being Mandelson and finding out that he was indeed offered it too (third, after Miliband), but turned it down. Grrr.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    HYUFD said:
    Well after years of people wondering if he will be kicked out of the Cabinet altogether, now he knows he has no reason not to speak his mind about anything even if it embarrasses the party and leadership since it is definitely happening soon I guess.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    The 100, mentioned here as a good sci-fi, is coming to E4 at 9pm on Mondays, I think.

    Mr. kle4, apparently the Dragon Age Keep will be released a month or less before Inquisition (you'll need an Origin account to use it, it seems).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Also, what was the judge's reasoning for this?

    "Harris is likely to serve half of the sentence in prison and was told he would not have to pay compensation to his victims."

    I only scanned it quickly, but I *think* the judge said that he wasn't going to make a compensation order because he didn't have all the necessary facts. I read it as deferring a decision rather than denying compensation.

    What's the source for your quote - it feels like a poorly written newspaper article
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I know few believed Salmond when he claimed that rUK would continue to subsidise IScotland renewables.......well, neither does the EU Court of Justice:

    The European Union’s top court backed Sweden’s refusal to subsidize a Finnish wind farm in a ruling that supports the EU’s current system where a government usually pays for power projects only in its own country.

    Sweden’s Energy Agency was justified to refuse aid to Finnish power producer Aalands Vindkraft AB because there’s no requirement for governments to aid renewable-power generation in other EU states, the EU Court of Justice ruled today. Sweden’s refusal didn’t break EU rules that outlaw curbs on the free movement of goods, it said.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-01/eu-court-backs-sweden-s-refusal-to-aid-finnish-wind-farm.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IMO the LDs will poll at least 12% in the general election due to personal votes for various candidates.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Regarding abuse of all kinds,including sexual,there was almost collective denial that it ever happened.The powerful people who were doing the abusing liked it that way and still do.
    In the '90s quite a few young women were cutting themselves and eventually people started to ask why?
    Then,the dots joined up.It was, usually sexual, abuse at the root so we poked that particular spot to look further and out came an avalanche of pus,the abuse of power,the basis of their ill-health and all they can do is spit,powerless.
    Abuse had damaged these human beings so that there lives were torture,ruined.
    So think a little about the effect on the mental health of those who have been abused.There are a lot of people out there who,one way or another,have been.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Pete, worth pointing out that behaviour such as purging, cutting or even excessive exercise* can be symptoms of distress unrelated to sexual abuse.

    *Whilst vomiting is the best known method employed by bulimics, excessive exercise is also considered a potential (though less common) alternative. It's interesting, as lots of men exercise quite a lot, but are unlikely to ever be considered mentally unhealthy or bulimic.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    MrJones said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10944652/Tory-MP-allegedly-found-with-child-porn-in-1980s-faced-no-charges-police-told.html

    "A senior Tory politician said to be part of a child sex ring was allegedly stopped by a customs officer with child pornography videos but got off scot-free, police have been told."

    If there is something to that story, The Telegraph should publish names. As it is, an unnamed customs officer makes claims about an unnamed MP. Anyone could do that, with no evidence at all, particularly on the basis of anonymity. We have no idea whether the then MP is still sitting, retired or dead.

    What has become a feature of the high profile sex abuse cases is that when one victim has come forward publicly, others have followed - often many others. If there is something to this one, it's highly likely that the same thing would follow. But this kind of whispered hearsay rumour does no-one any favours.
    "What has become a feature of the high profile sex abuse cases is that when one victim has come forward publicly, others have followed - often many others. If there is something to this one, it's highly likely that the same thing would follow."

    It can't always work like that though because for example in cases like the North Wales children's homes where it's alleged there was local abuse to filter out which boys were least likely to tell and then the selected ones were driven down to London to be abused by VIPs and MPs the boys in the selected group have a spectacularly high rate of suicide.

    Almost the perfect crime in that regard.

    So the decision in the main north wales inquiry for example to not accept any evidence about events outside of Wales meant most of the victims were dead by the time the allegations resurfaced.

    (not saying north wales is related to the Telegraph article as there are so many examples of children's homes being used for this purpose over the years it could be any one of them)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [In the '90s quite a few young women were cutting themselves and eventually people started to ask why?
    Then,the dots joined up.It was, usually sexual, abuse at the root so we poked that particular spot to look further and out came an avalanche of pus,the abuse of power,the basis of their ill-health and all they can do is spit,powerless.]

    I honestly think you're getting a bit mixed up here. The cutting thing is just a fashion/depressed teenager thing. You're linking two separate things and thus undermining the more dangerous one.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    I think we need to recognise though that any inappropriate behaviour can cause psychological trauma for the victim but I tend to think that trying to make an equivalence of all behaviour has the unintended consequence of trivialising the truly grotesque. We always tend to lose perspective though when children are involved.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    Summary definitely mentions errm "digital penetration"...

    Anyway enough of this filthy old man - I'm laying Brazil @ 1.78.

    I think Colombia have looked good so far (James Rodriguez great), but it could turn out to be another 0-0 with so much on the line.

    Btw Is his name pronounced "Ham-eh-s", "James" or "Hames" ?

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    From Twitter.
    Thanet South Conservative Association select Craig Mackinlay to fight the 2015 General Election...possibly against Nigel Farage
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    JBriskin said:

    [In the '90s quite a few young women were cutting themselves and eventually people started to ask why?
    Then,the dots joined up.It was, usually sexual, abuse at the root so we poked that particular spot to look further and out came an avalanche of pus,the abuse of power,the basis of their ill-health and all they can do is spit,powerless.]

    I honestly think you're getting a bit mixed up here. The cutting thing is just a fashion/depressed teenager thing. You're linking two separate things and thus undermining the more dangerous one.

    It's not fashion, self-harm is linked to psychology, often depression as you note. It's a serious problem, not a Tamagotchi /loom band type fad.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    Summary definitely mentions errm "digital penetration"...

    Anyway enough of this filthy old man - I'm laying Brazil @ 1.78.

    I think Colombia have looked good so far (James Rodriguez great), but it could turn out to be another 0-0 with so much on the line.

    Btw Is his name pronounced "Ham-eh-s", "James" or "Hames" ?

    As it is a Spanish speaking country then it the J is pronounced H so "Ham-ehs" would be the way I would expect it to be pronounced. My Mum has plenty of Spanish friends and there I'm known as Jaime rather than James which took some getting used to.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    ToryJim said:

    From Twitter.
    Thanet South Conservative Association select Craig Mackinlay to fight the 2015 General Election...possibly against Nigel Farage

    Still got copies of the 1997-2005 UKIP Party accounts, Cllr. MacKinlay?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    I think we need to recognise though that any inappropriate behaviour can cause psychological trauma for the victim but I tend to think that trying to make an equivalence of all behaviour has the unintended consequence of trivialising the truly grotesque. We always tend to lose perspective though when children are involved.

    I don't want to imply for one moment that the Nigel Evans case was wrongly decided.

    But, there's no doubt from the evidence given that he has wandering hands. I don't think wandering hands should per se be criminal. But, if the "victims" had been female, rather than male, would his behaviour been viewed more harshly?

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    I hope this header is supplementary to, not a replacement of, the Herdson weekend slot?

    No indeed, I've uploaded tomorrow's piece just now. It's a little bit lighter in tone, after all the analysis I did for this one.
    Bravo sir. This was good stuff, by the way. But I await the main course with interest.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    The current "hysteria" relates to cases where VIPs, celebs like Saville and Harris or MPs like Smith and Morrison got away with it for 50+ years often with the full collusion of the political class.

    There's not many serious crimes where you see a pattern like that.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can't see Brazil losing this now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Freggles said:

    JBriskin said:

    [In the '90s quite a few young women were cutting themselves and eventually people started to ask why?
    Then,the dots joined up.It was, usually sexual, abuse at the root so we poked that particular spot to look further and out came an avalanche of pus,the abuse of power,the basis of their ill-health and all they can do is spit,powerless.]

    I honestly think you're getting a bit mixed up here. The cutting thing is just a fashion/depressed teenager thing. You're linking two separate things and thus undermining the more dangerous one.

    It's not fashion, self-harm is linked to psychology, often depression as you note. It's a serious problem, not a Tamagotchi /loom band type fad.

    Cutting of forearms etc was around thirty years ago when I first did psychiatry at med school. It is usually done as a form of reality testing. The pain of cutting acts as a sort of emotional release, and penance but also for those who feel alienated from the world it is a way to return to reality.

    When working with sexually abused youngsters I found it was certainly a common expression of their internal conflicts. These teens had often very ambivalent feelings towards their abusers, often believing themselves in love with their abuser as well as knowing that they were being used. The cognitive dissonance manifested in many strange ways.Teenagers should be asked about sexual abuse if they are self harming, a surprising number will reveal that they have and are often relieved that they can finally talk of it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    ToryJim said:

    Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

    Interesting that Michael Howard didn't say, "Don't be ridiculous, I'm too old".
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    I think we need to recognise though that any inappropriate behaviour can cause psychological trauma for the victim but I tend to think that trying to make an equivalence of all behaviour has the unintended consequence of trivialising the truly grotesque. We always tend to lose perspective though when children are involved.

    I don't want to imply for one moment that the Nigel Evans case was wrongly decided.

    But, there's no doubt from the evidence given that he has wandering hands. I don't think wandering hands should per se be criminal. But, if the "victims" had been female, rather than male, would his behaviour been viewed more harshly?

    Oh therein lies a can of Lumbris Terrestris
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AveryLP said:

    ToryJim said:

    From Twitter.
    Thanet South Conservative Association select Craig Mackinlay to fight the 2015 General Election...possibly against Nigel Farage

    Still got copies of the 1997-2005 UKIP Party accounts, Cllr. MacKinlay?

    Oh no, 10 months of passive aggressive smart arse smearing is about commence
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    In a noble bid to steer the conversation in a happier direction (and because I'm a bit too sleepy to get anymore writing done), a few thoughts on Silverstone.

    Hamilton's stated he's going to compromise tomorrow, which probably means using P3 more for long run pace (handy in the race) than for qualifying set-up (although he'll likely do a quick simulation at the end). Smart thinking.

    Also well worth checking the weather forecast. Rain would probably help Red Bull and particularly hinder Williams and McLaren (chassis's aren't good). Downforce helps a lot when it's slippery.

    Force India looked nowhere today. Unless they start updating properly they'll end up behind Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari and maybe Williams. Not good enough for them. That said, they might try to do one pit stop fewer than the other teams.

    Both Wolff and Hamilton suffered the same problem: oil pressure problem with the engine, which stopped them dead. If that happens in the race, it's goodnight Vienna. Similarly, Rosberg had an ERS issue, which they managed to fix (Vettel's had such problems in practice and they tended to recur during the race).

    Red Bull and Alonso, in the dry, look like best of the rest, and the Silver Arrows should maintain dominance.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cracking game of footy. Shows why the world cup needs to be played in a place that has atmosphere. Qatar will be like the moon in comparison.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    isam said:

    AveryLP said:

    ToryJim said:

    From Twitter.
    Thanet South Conservative Association select Craig Mackinlay to fight the 2015 General Election...possibly against Nigel Farage

    Still got copies of the 1997-2005 UKIP Party accounts, Cllr. MacKinlay?

    Oh no, 10 months of passive aggressive smart arse smearing is about commence
    Could all be avoided if College agrees to an independent audit of the party's accounts and its MEPs' use of allowances.

    Want to give me odds on this happening, Sam?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    Have you actually read the judgement.

    The case of Child C absolutely involves digital penetration.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AveryLP said:

    isam said:

    AveryLP said:

    ToryJim said:

    From Twitter.
    Thanet South Conservative Association select Craig Mackinlay to fight the 2015 General Election...possibly against Nigel Farage

    Still got copies of the 1997-2005 UKIP Party accounts, Cllr. MacKinlay?

    Oh no, 10 months of passive aggressive smart arse smearing is about commence
    Could all be avoided if College agrees to an independent audit of the party's accounts and its MEPs' use of allowances.

    Want to give me odds on this happening, Sam?

    I wouldn't know

    I'll bet you the public don't care though
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    Have you actually read the judgement.

    The case of Child C absolutely involves digital penetration.
    I haven't, but if that's the case, then i must revise my view of the man.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 665
    edited July 2014
    Site Notice

    From now on, any stories about the various political paedophile stories, must come with a link from a reputable UK based news organisation.

    As The Lord McAlpine story a few years ago showed, you cannot, and should not believe everything you read on the internet, otherwise this becomes an expensive exercise for tweeters and website owners.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    Have you actually read the judgement.

    The case of Child C absolutely involves digital penetration.
    I haven't, but if that's the case, then i must revise my view of the man.
    I read the summary notes that someone linked to earlier.

    Vile, and a huge breach of trust: he did what he did when the child's mother and his own wife were often downstairs in the house.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    @Socrates‌
    I'm interested in the going forward, and I obviously wasn't as careful in my words as I wanted to be. Obviously criminal activity needs to be dealt with regardless of the historicity of it. However we have seen with a couple of the cases that have been brought that their have been questions regarding the wisdom attaching to the decision to prosecute. I certainly struggle to believe that there was as wide a pattern of dreadful behaviour as seems intimated, it just seems beyond probability that there were that many people of that inclination congregated in an area where they could be protected etc. I'm not saying I'm not open to being persuaded but it just looks a bit odd prima facie. I try to look at incidents with an open mind, I certainly have no great love of the powerful. I just detect that we live in an age where people are built up specifically for the moment that they can be knocked off the pedestal they have been placed upon. I dislike this current attitude immensely.

    It's important to try to distinguish between behaviour that's wicked, and behaviour that's simply disgusting. Forcible penetration of any orifice would be an example of the former, IMHO; groping breasts would be an example of the latter IMHO. Harris seems to fall more into the disgusting than the wicked category.
    Have you actually read the judgement.

    The case of Child C absolutely involves digital penetration.
    I haven't, but if that's the case, then i must revise my view of the man.
    Link to the full statement from the judge

    Child C starts in paragraph 6

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/the-full-statement-from-the-judge-who-sentenced-rolf-harris-to-jail-20140704-3bee0.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2014
    It can't be right that just one complaint that a sentence is unduly lenient is enough to trigger an automatic review.
  • Are we due one more mega shock result in the World Cup?
    Quite possibly and if pressed I'd have to opt for Costa Rica to defeat Netherlands over 90 minutes in their quarter final match tomorrow. How could I possibly deny Costa Rica who landed me magnificent odds odds of 80/1 with Sportingbet by winning Group D?
    The best odds available are 7/1 from Boylesports or Betfair (fixed odds) ...... I'm on, but DYOR.
  • AndyJS said:

    IMO the LDs will poll at least 12% in the general election due to personal votes for various candidates.

    I agree but even so I doubt they'll win more than 30-35 seats at best.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    ToryJim said:

    Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

    Interesting that Michael Howard didn't say, "Don't be ridiculous, I'm too old".
    I would be impressed if it was Michael Howard. We need to show Europe that we mean business. Sharp mind, no pushover.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,118
    Oh well, Brazil beat Colombia 2-1
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    edited July 2014

    Oh well, Brazil beat Colombia 2-1

    Excellent, Neymar is a gorgeous specimen of humanity ;)
This discussion has been closed.