politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edg

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

You might expect that the polls for the first month after the Euro-elections would show a drift of support back to the main three Westminster parties, as UKIP and the minor parties receded in media and campaigning prominence.  If so, you’d be wrong.  The June figures, with changes on May are:

Read the full story here

Theuniondivvie

Wurst.

fitalass

STV News - Firebomb scare at Better Together HQ as man threatens to blow up office

Ishmael_X

fitalass said:

STV News - Firebomb scare at Better Together HQ as man threatens to blow up office

A Unionist trying to liven them up a bit?

AndreaParma_82

EU Greens warning that EPP/S&D/ALDE will try to block EFDD getting a committe chairmanship

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/greens-back-farage-row-over-eu-parliament-chairs-303293

they already prevent EFDD from getting a Vice-President they would deserve using de Hondt.

Socrates

AndreaParma_82 said:

EU Greens warning that EPP/S&D/ALDE will try to block EFDD getting a committe chairmanship

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/greens-back-farage-row-over-eu-parliament-chairs-303293

they already prevent EFDD from getting a Vice-President they would deserve using de Hondt.

Can you explain to me how the de Hondt method works when giving out vice-presidencies and how the eurocrats blocked it?

Theuniondivvie

Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 11 mins
Hammond confirms yes vote will not stop #QECarriers at #Rosyth: "Contracts already placed and the seal is set on that, whatever happens."

Pulpstar

AndreaParma_82 said:

EU Greens warning that EPP/S&D/ALDE will try to block EFDD getting a committe chairmanship

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/greens-back-farage-row-over-eu-parliament-chairs-303293

they already prevent EFDD from getting a Vice-President they would deserve using de Hondt.

Good on the green group for speaking out. Sounds like UKIP/5 Star should get a chairmanship to me.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

fitalass said:

STV News - Firebomb scare at Better Together HQ as man threatens to blow up office

When it was said that they need a rocket up their arse, someone took it too literally.

Scrapheap_as_was

form an orderly queue...


Karl Turner MP @KarlTurnerMP

In honour of @UKLabour legend Dennis Skinner I am delighted to host "An Audience with Dennis Skinner" @OwenJones84 will hopefully compere.
Retweeted by Owen Jones

Pulpstar

Dimitrov saves himself from going 2 breaks down, breaks back and holds service.

JackW

I recall the early days of PB when JohnO thought tripping to Bournemouth was a LSD binge for coffin dodgers and a young Mike Smithson was barely out of University sandals, that poll averaging was considered to be a curse worse than a pleasant dinner with Hannibal Lecter.

Salad days, salad days ....

Socrates

Pulpstar said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

EU Greens warning that EPP/S&D/ALDE will try to block EFDD getting a committe chairmanship

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/greens-back-farage-row-over-eu-parliament-chairs-303293

they already prevent EFDD from getting a Vice-President they would deserve using de Hondt.

Good on the green group for speaking out. Sounds like UKIP/5 Star should get a chairmanship to me.

They should have got a vice-presidency too. I don't see how the De Hondt method gives the EPP so many, to be honest. They get like 60% of them on 30% of the vote.

JackW

Theuniondivvie said:

Wurst.

You are a bearded lady and I award you douze points.

OblitusSumMe

David Herdson said:

..are we about to see an unprecedented shift away from the Westminster parties?

What would you deem to be unprecedented in this context?

isam

On topic... well well, I thought the polls showed ukip were on the slide?

But it turns out they are the party who has gained most support in the last month, even disregarding the 23% TNS

People on here were already casually saying "conservatives have picked up thanks to the ukip collapse..."

Now the polls could very well all be nonsense, but even so...

ToryJim

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

isam

OblitusSumMe said:

David Herdson said:

..are we about to see an unprecedented shift away from the Westminster parties?

What would you deem to be unprecedented in this context?

Ukip winning the euros was unprecedented, however much it is played down on here

As is 6 or 7 consecutive 2nd places in by elections across all areas of England for a party with no MPs

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

People on here were already casually saying "conservatives have picked up thanks to the ukip collapse..."

To be fair, I think people who have said that were referring to the past few days.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure they are right. There might have been a small shift in favour of Labour in early June, and a small shift back recently, but I'm inclined to the view that it is just noise and not much has changed.

Socrates

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

"David Cameron wants Britain to win one of the four powerful economic jobs: economic and monetary affairs, competition, trade, or internal market and services."

That's what he'll be judged on. Presumably they'll give us trade, as Berlin and Brussels supports our efforts to have more trade deals, and yet we won't be in a position to stop centralisation within the EU itself?

ToryJim

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

People on here were already casually saying "conservatives have picked up thanks to the ukip collapse..."

To be fair, I think people who have said that are referring to the past few days.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure they are right. There might have been a small shift to Labour in early June, and a small shift back recently, but I'm inclined to the view that it is just noise and not much has changed.

I'm inclined to the view that until we get nearer the sharp end polls will be intriguing but not instructive. I wonder how much it has seeped into the psyche that the prospect of a snap election has been removed by the FTPA? Does that mean that people mid-term volatility is enhanced and more protracted and that the eventual reversion to a GE voting patter will be later and more pronounced? It remains to be seen but it has to be a possibility that voters are operating according to new rules and that things are less known, and less predictable than at other stages because the game rules have been radically altered in this cycle and we therefore have no comparator etc.

Socrates

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

People on here were already casually saying "conservatives have picked up thanks to the ukip collapse..."

To be fair, I think people who have said that were referring to the past few days.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure they are right. There might have been a small shift in favour of Labour in early June, and a small shift back recently, but I'm inclined to the view that it is just noise and not much has changed.

I agree, the celebrating of minor poll movements this far away from an election is ridiculous... On the other hand a bit of partisan bragging is part and parcel of the site for many people I guess, so shouldn't moan too much

ToryJim

Socrates said:

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

"David Cameron wants Britain to win one of the four powerful economic jobs: economic and monetary affairs, competition, trade, or internal market and services."

That's what he'll be judged on. Presumably they'll give us trade, as Berlin and Brussels supports our efforts to have more trade deals, and yet we won't be in a position to stop centralisation within the EU itself?

Oh possibly, I think the personality is more interesting than the position though. Of course there is always the possibility of someone going native and displaying the zeal of the convert. It's all going to be interesting.

GeoffM

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

Thanks for posting that. But what an appalling article. It's dripping from every pore with the lefty biased-BBC mindset.

He attends lots of European conferences for other clever, well-connected people just like him.

OblitusSumMe

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

David Herdson said:

..are we about to see an unprecedented shift away from the Westminster parties?

What would you deem to be unprecedented in this context?

Ukip winning the euros was unprecedented, however much it is played down on here

No playing down of that by me, but the general election is a sterner test, because of FPTP and the result determining the choice of Government.

It's just that there are a few precedents that could set the bar quite high. So, for example, the Green Party won an MP at the last GE, so UKIP winning an MP in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented. Similarly, the Alliance increased their vote by 11.6 percentage points in 1983, so UKIP increasing their vote to 14% in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented.

In 1906 the Labour Party - contesting only their second general election - increased their Parliamentary representation from 2 seats to 29. Given that UKIP have contested general elections since 1997 an advance to 20-odd seats for UKIP would arguably not be unprecedented - depending on how far back you want to go.

I'm just curious what level of move away from LibLabCon would qualify as unprecedented in Herdson's view.

OblitusSumMe

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

People on here were already casually saying "conservatives have picked up thanks to the ukip collapse..."

To be fair, I think people who have said that are referring to the past few days.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure they are right. There might have been a small shift to Labour in early June, and a small shift back recently, but I'm inclined to the view that it is just noise and not much has changed.

I'm inclined to the view that until we get nearer the sharp end polls will be intriguing but not instructive. I wonder how much it has seeped into the psyche that the prospect of a snap election has been removed by the FTPA? Does that mean that people mid-term volatility is enhanced and more protracted and that the eventual reversion to a GE voting patter will be later and more pronounced? It remains to be seen but it has to be a possibility that voters are operating according to new rules and that things are less known, and less predictable than at other stages because the game rules have been radically altered in this cycle and we therefore have no comparator etc.

What percentage of the population do you think know about the Fixed Term Parliament Act?

JackW

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

isam

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

David Herdson said:

..are we about to see an unprecedented shift away from the Westminster parties?

What would you deem to be unprecedented in this context?

Ukip winning the euros was unprecedented, however much it is played down on here

No playing down of that by me, but the general election is a sterner test, because of FPTP and the result determining the choice of Government.

It's just that there are a few precedents that could set the bar quite high. So, for example, the Green Party won an MP at the last GE, so UKIP winning an MP in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented. Similarly, the Alliance increased their vote by 11.6 percentage points in 1983, so UKIP increasing their vote to 14% in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented.

In 1906 the Labour Party - contesting only their second general election - increased their Parliamentary representation from 2 seats to 29. Given that UKIP have contested general elections since 1997 an advance to 20-odd seats for UKIP would arguably not be unprecedented - depending on how far back you want to go.

I'm just curious what level of move away from LibLabCon would qualify as unprecedented in Herdson's view.

I shouldn't think anything ukip do will be given any credit

If they won a majority with 50% of the vote it would be called disappointing if they had polled 51% in a poll somewhere at some point

anotherDave

"My own view is that all or most firms are under-polling the Lib Dems"

In the EU Parliament vote, a PR election, they got 6.6% (2009: 13.7%).

In the local elections they got 11% (2009: 25%).

With those results 8% is the low end of their range, but it's not cuckoo.

TheWatcher

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Mike Smithson?

OblitusSumMe

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

David Herdson said:

..are we about to see an unprecedented shift away from the Westminster parties?

What would you deem to be unprecedented in this context?

Ukip winning the euros was unprecedented, however much it is played down on here

No playing down of that by me, but the general election is a sterner test, because of FPTP and the result determining the choice of Government.

It's just that there are a few precedents that could set the bar quite high. So, for example, the Green Party won an MP at the last GE, so UKIP winning an MP in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented. Similarly, the Alliance increased their vote by 11.6 percentage points in 1983, so UKIP increasing their vote to 14% in 2015 wouldn't be unprecedented.

In 1906 the Labour Party - contesting only their second general election - increased their Parliamentary representation from 2 seats to 29. Given that UKIP have contested general elections since 1997 an advance to 20-odd seats for UKIP would arguably not be unprecedented - depending on how far back you want to go.

I'm just curious what level of move away from LibLabCon would qualify as unprecedented in Herdson's view.

I shouldn't think anything ukip do will be given any credit

If they won a majority with 50% of the vote it would be called disappointing if they had polled 51% in a poll somewhere at some point

Stanley Baldwin's Conservatives took 55% of the vote in 1931. 50% from Farage's lot would be pisspoor in comparison.

Alanbrooke

GeoffM said:

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

Thanks for posting that. But what an appalling article. It's dripping from every pore with the lefty biased-BBC mindset.

He attends lots of European conferences for other clever, well-connected people just like him.

the man who is so clever he has cocked up monumentally the student loan scheme. On the bright side maybe he'll bankrupt the EU budget too.

MyBurningEars

I hope this header is supplementary to, not a replacement of, the Herdson weekend slot?

TCPoliticalBetting

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

When I read this from James Landale about Hague "Pro: .... would reassure Tory eurosceptics.... " is when I realised that Landale was completely out of touch with how Hague is now regarded. maybe 10 years ago, but not now.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

TheScreamingEagles

MyBurningEars said:

I hope this header is supplementary to, not a replacement of, the Herdson weekend slot?

You're hopes are correct.

This is merely the cherry on the parfait that is David's usual contribution on Saturday.

JackW

TheWatcher said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Mike Smithson?

No, no .... I mean a dashing, mature fellow well known .... with hair !!

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

A number of PB'ers are nearby

Richard_Nabavi

If it is indeed true, as rumoured, that Andrew Mitchell is trying to get Plebgate settled out of court, then perhaps he's the preferred candidate. He'd tick a lot of boxes.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

No, no .... I mean a sane fellow with an outstanding record of political prediction !!

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

If it is indeed true, as rumoured, that Andrew Mitchell is trying to get Plebgate settled out of court, then perhaps he's the preferred candidate. He'd tick a lot of boxes.

It'd be a classic case of the early favourite heading towards outsider status and then coming back in to win it.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

No, no .... I mean a sane fellow with an outstanding record of political prediction !!

That's Ave It. He predicted Watford perfectly.

I also nominate Hertsmere Pubgoer

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

James Stuart Truth ?

GeoffM

Alanbrooke said:

GeoffM said:

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

Thanks for posting that. But what an appalling article. It's dripping from every pore with the lefty biased-BBC mindset.

He attends lots of European conferences for other clever, well-connected people just like him.

the man who is so clever he has cocked up monumentally the student loan scheme. On the bright side maybe he'll bankrupt the EU budget too.

this is very much in line with my preferred interim tactics of crippling the EU with overpromoted fools and blundering idiots. They are much more likely to get past initial scrutiny and then cause more damage to the credibity of the EU than any overt EUsceptic sabotage candidate.

As such I regard "baroness" Ashton as a particularly well engineered UK success story.

Why don't we go down the EU tradition of nominating failed prime ministers? Give them Gordon Brown. That'll royally screw 'em and make it look like we are taking them seriously.

TGOHF

Bad not mad rationale behind Nat Mi5 Potter rant ?


http://themanthebheastscanttame.wordpress.com/2014/07/04/och-spy-the-noo-christina-mckelvie-snp-msp/

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

No, no .... I mean a sane fellow with an outstanding record of political prediction !!

That's Ave It. He predicted Watford perfectly.

I also nominate Hertsmere Pubgoer

Rumour has it he's got a cracking tip for Bootle too - at great odds.

MaxPB

Trade should go to Germany and we should get Internal Markets. In reality it will be the other way around because there would be too much scope for us to derail the gravy train with the internal markets brief. If the French or any other non-reformer nation gets the internal markets portfolio thenit kjust pushes this country further towards the exit door. I'm sure there are some in the EU who would welcome that but it would be as much of a disaster for them as it would be for us, losing the sometimes only voice for reform within the bloc will give Eurocrats free licence to push for more protectionism and a less global outlook.

They hate us because we're right about globalisation and they are wrong, look at the voices from Europe declaring the death of Anglo Saxon capitalism just before we turned the corner. They would relish our exit, and for that reason I feel like they will try and push for France to get the iinternal markets poaition and as a compromise the Germans will take it.

Pulpstar

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

GeoffM said:

ToryJim said:

Intriguing piece on the Beeb about the possibles for EU Commissioner job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28158347

Thanks for posting that. But what an appalling article. It's dripping from every pore with the lefty biased-BBC mindset.

He attends lots of European conferences for other clever, well-connected people just like him.

the man who is so clever he has cocked up monumentally the student loan scheme. On the bright side maybe he'll bankrupt the EU budget too.

this is very much in line with my preferred interim tactics of crippling the EU with overpromoted fools and blundering idiots. They are much more likely to get past initial scrutiny and then cause more damage to the credibity of the EU than any overt EUsceptic sabotage candidate.

As such I regard "baroness" Ashton as a particularly well engineered UK success story.

Why don't we go down the EU tradition of nominating failed prime ministers? Give them Gordon Brown. That'll royally screw 'em and make it look like we are taking them seriously.

I'm still waiting for his All Holiness St Anthony Charles Lynton to be the president of Europe.

Verulamius

Richard_Nabavi said:

If it is indeed true, as rumoured, that Andrew Mitchell is trying to get Plebgate settled out of court, then perhaps he's the preferred candidate. He'd tick a lot of boxes.

Is he too junior though for a big post? What economic or legal experience does he have?

JackW

Somehow I fear my candidacy is not as strongly supported as I had hoped ?!?!?

Bugger ....

And there was I contemplating vast riches to online supporters ....

No matter .... that's £1 12/- 6d saved

volcanopete

I hope some PBers managed to win a prize. The "fantastic 8-gun pheasant shoot at Tusmore,the Oxfordshire estate of Wafic Said" sounds a real corker for the chumocracy.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/03/tennis-cameron-johnson-160000-tory-fundraiser

Pulpstar

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

Richard_Nabavi

Verulamius said:

Is he too junior though for a big post? What economic or legal experience does he have?

Maybe, although he's arguably got at least as much experience as the favourite Andrew Lansley.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I will be near Epping on Monday.
As an aside, it has been great seeing assorted Team and publicity caravan vehicles on the M25 and A1 over the last few days.

malcolmg

fitalass said:

STV News - Firebomb scare at Better Together HQ as man threatens to blow up office

How desperate can they get , they have dug up the SNLA from the cemetery. Better Together really are a bunch of losers. I wonder who will win the sweep on when they would bring that one up. More than 70 days to go and they are at the bottom of the barrel.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

Philip_Thompson

OblitusSumMe said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

People on here were already casually saying "conservatives have picked up thanks to the ukip collapse..."

To be fair, I think people who have said that are referring to the past few days.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure they are right. There might have been a small shift to Labour in early June, and a small shift back recently, but I'm inclined to the view that it is just noise and not much has changed.

I'm inclined to the view that until we get nearer the sharp end polls will be intriguing but not instructive. I wonder how much it has seeped into the psyche that the prospect of a snap election has been removed by the FTPA? Does that mean that people mid-term volatility is enhanced and more protracted and that the eventual reversion to a GE voting patter will be later and more pronounced? It remains to be seen but it has to be a possibility that voters are operating according to new rules and that things are less known, and less predictable than at other stages because the game rules have been radically altered in this cycle and we therefore have no comparator etc.

What percentage of the population do you think know about the Fixed Term Parliament Act?

Very few directly know or think about it I imagine but the media plays a far more significant indirect role. Come July 2009 for comparison we'd already had months of prominent media speculation and focusing of minds about a GE building up to The Election That Never Was (nearly 2 years before now at this stage of the Parliament) and speculation at other times too.

The FTPA has removed such media speculation. It has removed the concentration on the general election that would have happened repeatedly by now.

Given that politics and swings in part happen through the prism of the media lens, the change caused by Fixed Term Parliaments to the media could have subconsciously affected the polling without people directly thinking about it.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Betting, Landale's piece a few days ago about Miliband attacking Cameron was rubbish. There was no show of Cameron's response, for example.

Richard_Nabavi

Memo to Dave: If it's not too much trouble, may I respectfully suggest Hague for the Commissioner gig and Andrew Mitchell as Foreign Sec? Not only does that solve several problems for you in one slick double-flip, but (checks old betting slips from the 'written off' drawer) it would do great things for the Sussex economy

Lennon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

I'll be watching on Monday as it goes past my office door. As an aside, I think that the official hill labels are hilarious with the French / Yorkshire combinations - Côte de Blubberhouses and Côte d'Oxenhope Moor anyone?

Rexel56

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

Will be in Skipton to see the peloton sweep past the castle entrance... Raining hard right now but due to be dry from early morning onwards...

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Memo to Dave: If it's not too much trouble, may I respectfully suggest Hague for the Commissioner gig and Andrew Mitchell as Foreign Sec? Not only does that solve several problems for you in one slick double-flip, but (checks old betting slips from the 'written off' drawer) it would do great things for the Sussex economy

Dave if you're listening, Andrew Mitchell would be eminently suitable for the job and a great choice.

philiph

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Socrates said:

The BBC mentions Peter Lilley as a possible option. He'd be good. Has had a string of financial roles so would be well suited for one of the economic positions. As former Business Secretary and former shadow Chancellor, he's a big hitter deserving a big job. And he wouldn't take any crap from Juncker either.

A by-election in Hitchen and Harpenden ?!?

Well I never ....

Now who does PB know of impeccable pedigree, with a passing knowledge of politics, a sometime resident of the constituency and the full support of the Jacobite empire to fill such a vacancy ?

It's a tricky one ....

Ave It?

A number of PB'ers are nearby

Indeed I am very adjacent

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Memo to Dave: If it's not too much trouble, may I respectfully suggest Hague for the Commissioner gig and Andrew Mitchell as Foreign Sec? Not only does that solve several problems for you in one slick double-flip, but (checks old betting slips from the 'written off' drawer) it would do great things for the Sussex economy

Whilst I am on Mitchell at 16/1 as next Foreign Sec, I'd prefer if Dave appointed Owen Paterson as next Foreign Sec, I have him at 40/1

TheScreamingEagles

Rexel56 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

Will be in Skipton to see the peloton sweep past the castle entrance... Raining hard right now but due to be dry from early morning onwards...

I think that's where Mike will be tomorrow.

TheScreamingEagles

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

I'll be watching on Monday as it goes past my office door. As an aside, I think that the official hill labels are hilarious with the French / Yorkshire combinations - Côte de Blubberhouses and Côte d'Oxenhope Moor anyone?

Côte d'Holmfirth has a nice ring to it.

JackW

Richard_Nabavi said:

Memo to Dave: If it's not too much trouble, may I respectfully suggest Hague for the Commissioner gig and Andrew Mitchell as Foreign Sec? Not only does that solve several problems for you in one slick double-flip, but (checks old betting slips from the 'written off' drawer) it would do great things for the Sussex economy

Titters ....

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

I'll be watching on Monday as it goes past my office door. As an aside, I think that the official hill labels are hilarious with the French / Yorkshire combinations - Côte de Blubberhouses and Côte d'Oxenhope Moor anyone?

Côte d'Holmfirth has a nice ring to it.

Ecky-Thump Sur La Mer ....

JackW

Novak through on a match point net cord in a fourth set tie break.

slade

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

@TheScreamingEagles (Or anyone else) Going to watch Le Tour on Sunday ?

I'll be near the finish, possibly going to head to Jenkin Road.

I'm going tomorrow for the Grand Depart.

I'll be watching on Monday as it goes past my office door. As an aside, I think that the official hill labels are hilarious with the French / Yorkshire combinations - Côte de Blubberhouses and Côte d'Oxenhope Moor anyone?

Côte d'Holmfirth has a nice ring to it.

I drove through Holmfirth this morning and then up Holme Moss. The place was awash with middle aged men in lycra - some of whom were pushing not pedalling. Will probably watch just outside Huddersfield and then dash home to watch the finish on television.

TCPoliticalBetting

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. Betting, Landale's piece a few days ago about Miliband attacking Cameron was rubbish. There was no show of Cameron's response, for example.

I missed that, it is a surprise as I had thought Landale a sound chap.

Rexel56

O/T you cannot get a fag paper between the prices for France and Germany on Betfair... Both 2.88

state_go_away

I would personally do a lot of things before watching live a professional bike race. Its over in about 20 seconds isn't it?
I once accidentally got caught up in one in Belguim and the crowds were huge just to see a peleton go past in a blink of an eye.

Thought Yorkshire folk were more sensible to go mad over something like this. Its not as if its a wholesome sport or event given its past drug history

TCPoliticalBetting

On topic, for the LDs to lose another 1.5% in a month is a surprise. Maybe they should start saying nice positive messages about how good it is for the country to have a coalition and that they are proud of the economic progress being made WITH the Conservatives. Spending their limited media time, sniping and trashing their partners, undermines their own image and adds weight to the view that they are a shifty, unreliable party that tells porkies.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/does-george-osborne-really-want-to-derail-the-future-of-our-planet-9576192.html

Why should voters reward them with another coalition?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Betting, one of those small editorial things which skews matters.

As a general point, the media piss me off when they have some reporter say "Cameron said X, but Miliband retorted Y". Just bloody show them.

Mr. Away, it may interest you to know that peloton[sp] is German for a firing squad.

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Peloton

Rexel56

state_go_away said:

I would personally do a lot of things before watching live a professional bike race. Its over in about 20 seconds isn't it?
I once accidentally got caught up in one in Belguim and the crowds were huge just to see a peleton go past in a blink of an eye.

Thought Yorkshire folk were more sensible to go mad over something like this. Its not as if its a wholesome sport or event given its past drug history

Yorkshire folk are not going mad over Le Tour... It is only the second most important event over the next week... http://greatyorkshireshow.co.uk

state_go_away

Rexel56 said:

O/T you cannot get a fag paper between the prices for France and Germany on Betfair... Both 2.88

Surprising a bit given what both teams were sent off at pre tournament .Germany about 7/1,France 28/1 ish. I know France have played ok but so have Germany. I was looking to get on France for the match at a value price but want to back the Germans at those prices

JohnLoony

E-ba-gum-Les-Deux-Églises

ToryJim

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

state_go_away

E-ba-Gum is Mugabe spelt backwards

AndyJS

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

ToryJim

AndyJS said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.

dyedwoolie

ToryJim said:

AndyJS said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.

It's paedogeddon

Sunil_Prasannan

Football...

Must... have... football...

dyedwoolie

No doubt we will be treated on Facebook to a series of Britain First posts calling for the return of the death penalty, roundly shared by the fatuous.

state_go_away

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Football...

Must... have... football...

Yes hang in there fellow addict not long now

Sunil_Prasannan

Je t'a Dore
(pres de Sheffield!)

dyedwoolie

Germany will go two up and the French will immediately assist them in build up play for the remainder of the game. Everyone will be disappointed that one of them got through.

ToryJim

dyedwoolie said:

ToryJim said:

AndyJS said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.

It's paedogeddon

Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.

state_go_away

Thank God I can listen to football on the radio n the way home than to listen to more fall out from historical sex abuse or phone hacking trials on Radio 4

Sunil_Prasannan

JackW said:

Novak through on a match point net cord in a fourth set tie break.

Novak v Roger on Sunday?

dyedwoolie

Death penalty - only for Piracy with violence and cold calling.
Nothing more

Pulpstar

ToryJim said:

dyedwoolie said:

ToryJim said:

AndyJS said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.

It's paedogeddon

Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.

Tom Watson ?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Away, don't forget the British Grand Prix. Nyoooooooooom!

Sunil_Prasannan

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Away, don't forget the British Grand Prix. Nyoooooooooom!

Mr Dancer.
Petra is a fighter not a Kvitova?

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Prasannan, I fear that's almost the sort of thing Mr. Eagles might come up with...

Hope Bouchard wins. And Federer.

state_go_away

Pulpstar said:

ToryJim said:

dyedwoolie said:

ToryJim said:

AndyJS said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.

It's paedogeddon

Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.

Tom Watson ?

I watched the Blackadder episode about the Witch Finder the other night -very funny

Rexel56

Is it really possible to make a referral to the AG that quickly.... Doesn't any referral have to be accompanied by a report prepared by the CPS setting out the circumstances? Maybe a member of the public or politician has triggered the process by asking for such a report to be prepared. One hopes it's not a vexatious referral designed to embarrass the AG

state_go_away

dyedwoolie said:

Death penalty - only for Piracy with violence and cold calling.
Nothing more

What!! Not even for arson in HM shipyards?!

dyedwoolie

ToryJim said:

dyedwoolie said:

ToryJim said:

AndyJS said:

ToryJim said:

Hmm BBC reporting the Rolf Harris sentence has been referred to the AG for undue lenience.

I thought it was unduly harsh.

Well I think it is about right, I just find it amusing that there are those who think all crimes of which they disapprove should involve the cell doors being welded shut.

It's paedogeddon

Paedophilia is a dreadful crime but I have to say there is an air of some sort of post-mediaeval witch hunt. We just need our own self-appointed Nonce-finder General if we haven't already got a candidate.

Yes. Immediately employ a nonce tsar who is in charge of locking up the billions of child molestors hiding in every bush in every town.
There is an air of protesteth too much about the whole hysteria. Like most hysteria as it goes.