Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even m
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015
The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/
Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?
As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...
EDIT: Posted right link now.
On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?
Are voters not getting peeved at blank pieces of paper being shoved through their door ?
Left-leaning ex-LibDem-sympathetic voters are the people who the polls are showing moving to Labour, and they're the main cause of the consistent improvement in Labour's position on 2010. But if those people were already voting Labour in the seats where it matters, applying UNS to the current position will double-count them. Flipping the first preference of people who are already voting for you in the marginals doesn't win you any more seats.
As for France, well, if they want to be in some sort of union I would have thought their best bet, like an independent Scotland's, would be to leave the EU and join the GCC.
Judgement in the hearing has been reserved.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22553531
Wonder what happens when they call in outstanding overdrafts?
'People close to the regulator said it wanted to help accelerate the appointment of an experienced banker as the Co-op Bank's new boss amid suggestions by City analysts that it could be facing a capital shortfall as high as £1.8bn.'
http://news.sky.com/story/1091238/pra-aids-search-for-new-co-op-bank-chief
Better example would be New Zealand or Singapore.
You do a national opinion poll of 1000 people, properly balanced according to key demographic markers like Billy Bragg listenership, and you get a total of 55 Sandalistas. 5 live in Lab/Con marginals, and they tell you they voted Labour. The other 50 tell you they voted LibDem. The 50 who voted LibDem now tell you they'll vote Labour next time.
So the Lab score just went up 5%. You do your UNS calculation and it looks like a Lab win. But in the marginals where it matters, you're going to end up with the same number of votes as last time.
I'd like to say if that happens then they'd be forced to remove Labour bias in the system, but we all know that it won't make any difference.
Every week we read about the same thing, what do you want, the Labour Party to disband!!! and say sorry for having supporters that want us to be in government. How about only putting up candidates in only Conservative held seats or how about telling the returning officer in every constituency to ignore the first 5000 votes cast for Labour
For Christ's sake give it a rest
One of the Tory post-mortems seemed to be suggested that they couldn't use it in the local elections. Since they were a couple of months after Eastleigh, that would seem like quite a heroic clusterfvck, even by enterprise IT standards.
The truth is that the EU is neither the panacea put forward by some people, nor the evil impoverisher of Brits posed by others. It is no coincidence that most trade blocks are regional - because many goods are services cost a lot of money to transport, one usually has closer arrangements with those near you, than those a long way away.
Personally - and I know I'm in a minority of one on this one - think that the freedom of labour across Europe is probably the single best thing the EU has done. I personally relish the fact that people are now free to live where they want, and who they want, without meddlesome bureaucrats saying what forms they need to fill in and whether their wife is allowed to work.
'A new editor for the programme was announced on Thursday. Ian Katz, from the Guardian, will take up his role in September'.
Just asking....
In the extreme case where the LD -> Lab switchers being picked up by the polls were predominantly in Con/LD marginals, the switching would actually be good news for the Tories. I'm not sure we've really got much evidence to go on here, though, and in any case I'd expect many tactical voters to return to their 2010 behaviour as the election nears, even if for the moment they are telling pollsters otherwise.
Tories 33
Labour 32
LD 10
UKIP 20
Which in seats would be
Tories 284
Labour 314
LD 24
UKIP Zero
Labour short of majority by 14
All voters will remember is that the Tories are giving them a referendum – and that Labour isn’t
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/all-voters-will-remember-is-that-the-tories-are-giving-them-a-referendum-and-that-labour-isnt/
The second factor is that even where Labour won they did so with relatively little enthusiasm and a poor turnout making their votes seem more efficient than they were. Take out the Brown factor and things may be different. If Labour were to lose, say, half a dozen seats to the SNP in Scotland but still perform well in those seats and also do much better in the seats that they hold onto in England both factors will reduce their "efficiency".
It may be that Ed is no better (surely not worse) at inspiring his supporters than Brown but being in opposition will motivate the troops somewhat. My guess is that the Labour advantage next time will still be marked but less so than in 2010.
Hmmm I wonder what this says about our resident lefties?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10061462/Stronger-men-are-more-right-wing.html
Tories 36
Labour 35
UKIP 10
LDs 14
What does that produce?
http://metro.co.uk/2013/05/15/cod-dumping-ban-sunk-by-spain-and-the-french-3761028/
It's worth bearing in mind that the British waters are some of the best left in Europe after other nations plundered their own waters to devastation. They seem well on their way to doing the same with outs. The Spanish can barely even keep to existing weak regulations:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/26/spanish-fishermen-fines
Controlling our own sovereign waters. Just another reason we'd be Better Off Out.
Labour 311
LD 25
UKIP Zero
Labour short by 15
Have a play here with the numbers
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
Well, that's what happens when you have people made leader after only a few years in Parliament and with no other experience or even experience of being a Minister. Leading and managing a team has nothing to do with how many degrees you have or how good they were. It needs emotional intelligence, experience, cunning, charm, a willingness to say tough things and to hear them etc.
We're daft as a society assuming that people barely out of short trousers have the sorts of talents needed to do the job we expect them to.
At this rate, give it another couple of years and some more effort by your personal trainer and you'll be a UKIP supporter.
Very interesting TSE. With a result like that, I think the UK would be pretty much ungovernable.
And anti Lab /Lib Dem tactical voting should surface now that right of centre voters have a choice of two right of centre parties,Eastleigh must be high on UKIP's target list and with the same Tory candidate should be a shoo-in for UKIP.
Putting on the lean mass is the next objective, so stand by for a lurch to the right.
Though Richard Nabavi makes a good point too...
Is it possible to put a bet on that Labour will get the most MPs in 2015 while coming second in vote share? Or is that such a foregone conclusion that the bet can't be placed?
When times are tough, experience and judgment matter. These are not necessarily the preserve of energetic youngsters.
Yesterday JohnO said I looked like Brian Cowen and today you're saying I'm fat. Whatever happened to PB Tory solidarity?!
http://t.co/T3RsRfo64i
http://t.co/VIluaaHWQN
And is there a negative correlation between a constituency's White British % (Census 2011) and Labour vote % (GE 2010)?
http://t.co/pCLnYtaY4U
http://t.co/rURkWBal4B
How times change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZuRTUdo5V84
I guess when the time comes you could bet on labour to get most seats and at the same time lay them to win the popular vote....
No i live in the real world not the abstract one you live in
Then why don;t they stop effing agreeing with France and start agreeing with us?
Germany is like a typical bloke whose best mate and girlfriend don;t get on. He agrees wholeheartedly with his best mate Britain , but the French girlfriend's the one with the t8ts who doles out the bl8w j*bs.
And that means on Saturdays Germany is in shopping in town as opposed to being at the match with the Brits...
The links between Newsnight and the BIJ, who were also peripherally involved in the McAlpine scandal, should be investigated further. Angus Stickler, the BIJ chief reporter, worked on the Newsnight investigation in the McAlpine case: it's almost as if the BBC don't have enough journalists of their own?...
And now Stickler's been implicated in this Help for Heroes case as well.
But to be honest, I'm amazed the BIJ is still going. They've mucked up badly twice now, and have caused one of their associates (the BBC) vast damage.
I daresay we can all come up with alternative meanings for 'BIJ'. Bodged, Idiotic Journalism?
Bad news (sort of): The inflation that was supposed to make everybody spend money didn't show up.
Good news: People are spending money like it's going out of fashion anyway.
Even better news: It turns out you can print loads of free money, and you get growth and no inflation.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/16/abenomics_mystery_is_it_working_or_not.html
He then goes to Europe and says Right, we all have a problem; in 3 months, I'm going to re-run the referendum with the new choice being Out or Stay In On New Terms; the latter are what we are going to discuss and they better be good or the Out goes into effect.
Absolutely the last thing he'd want is an In vote ahead of any attempted negotiation, which torpedoes any leverage he might have; the answer is then just No to everything.
A referendum held only after such negotiation will be fisked apart as deceitful, because the choice would not be between In and Out, but between In on Existing Terms and Out But Only Onto New Terms, i.e. both votes would be a vote to stay in.
In a way the two aren't that different. The point is, as you say, France is 'the missus....'
We also need to remember that any changes need to be absolutely set in stone. Reform of the CAP was promised but barely happened. The cut in the EU budget has been more than reversed for 2013, and the same thing is likely to happen in future years. It needs to be utterly concrete.
Arguably London is not far off being equivalent to Singapore, and would be pretty close if it could convince the rest of England to be independent in the way that Singapore is not part of Malaysia.
Where would one draw the border around an independent city-state of London?
And Britain is cracking company that knows that what happens on tour, stays on tour.
Apparently Holland's up for a boys week-end too. Likes a beer, does Holland. Shall we invite Finland? Minted but a bit dull...???
As long as Belgium doesn;t get wind of it. they'd want to come but bound to spill the beans to France eventually...
I've said this before but the europhile notion that people will only listen to you if you are 'committed to the club' is one of the greatest idiocies of modern Western politics. And it is now being shown to be an utter fallacy as the EU finally sits up and takes notice.
Britain is paying the piper. We should call the tune. End of.
This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
Yes our world standing will decline over time, though not as far or fast as you say. But the EU's standing will also decline for exactly the same reasons.
Free movement of goods, services and people is a non-starter, as is anything that will give us any kind of appreciable advantage over anyone else. So no control of fisheries, no ability to subsidise certain industries, no chance of negotiating separate trade treaties and so on.
What we would get are guarantees not to do certain things that have not yet been done and, perhaps, the ability to give British employees a worse deal in terms of holidays and protections than their equivalents get in other parts of the EU. And that, basically, will be that.
All of which is why Dave is not telling us what he would like to renegotiate. The 2017 referendum is just a way to get the Tories past the next election before they finally and irrevocably tear themselves apart.
Having thought about this some more, I think the catchment area for the river Thames makes a lot of sense, though it does include Luton and one could annex a bit of land around the estuary as required, perhaps the Medway?. That would give Singapore a run for its money, and you'd have enough of Southern England to outvote the Labour parts of London.
After all, Oxford gave us Miliband and Cameron, whilst Cambridge gave us Newton, Darwin, Hawking, Babbage, Rutherford, Turing, Whittle, Kelvin, Pepys, Marlowe, Tennyson, and the structure of DNA.
Without Cambridge, we wouldn't know about the laws of motion, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, or discovered evolution, hydrogen, or the electron.
Without Oxford, we wouldn't have many of our politicians and religious figures.
No contest. :-)
PS
Anyone seen this disgraceful attack on whelks in the DT ?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217259/ignore-the-tory-euro-turmoil-the-economy-is-improving-and-ed-miliband-still-has-the-political-nous-of-a-whelk/
" three important fundamentals remain. The first is that Ed Miliband has again demonstrated he has the political instincts of a whelk. This was his opportunity – I suspect his final opportunity – to seriously exploit Tory divisions over Europe. He failed to take it.
Ultimately Labour will be forced to shift its stance on a referendum. Going into the next election saying “We’re the One Nation party, we believe in a new style of politics. And that means we can’t let you have a say on Europe because big business doesn’t want us to” is utterly unsustainable.
Ed Miliband will shift, he will face the same charges of political opportunism he is attempting to avoid now, and he will do so as an act of political weakness, rather than strength. Crucially, he will do so too late."
I suggest you draw a neat little circle around the Mini factory, if you're looking for anything of value in Cowley...
Man Utd, Real Madrid, LA Galaxy, AC Milan, PSG & England
Won the league with clubs all bar Milan
Champions League w Utd
115 England caps, 59 as captain
What a career
Go north to Cambridge and you'll get loads of charming town and villages.
I agree that won't happen though. The protectionist bloc in the EU is far too strong.
Of course, for political purposes this will be played down, since irrational banker-bashing (invariably by people who haven't the faintest clue what the City actually does) is fashionable at the moment. But that doesn't alter the fact that we really, really do need to get back control of this if we are to have any chance of prospering again over the next few years.
If we can't, we should leave. It's as simple as that.
As regards everything else, the Fresh Start group of Tory MPs has been doing some good background work:
http://www.eufreshstart.org/downloads/executivesummary.pdf
As for a physical boundary, just take everything east of the A1 as far as Huntingdon, then northeastwards to meet the Wash near Kings Lynn. Don't worry about the rest of East Anglia - coastal erosion'll mean it'll disappear in a couple of hundred years.
Londoners will need somewhere to relax, and the Broads are lovely.
"We don't remember Oxford spies because they were Oxford-trained"
Exactly.
Testament to them.
Just pick where you want, forget about a coherent border.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_GDP_(nominal)#Long_term_GDP_estimates
The growth rates of emerging economies are also slowing faster than expected since those projections were made. I don't see how staying in the EU would change this, other than that we would have more trade barriers to trading with these booming economies, so our GDP growth would be slower, making us fall down the list faster.
I agree it's possible that our UNSC seat would become untenable, but that would be true inside or outside the EU. In fact, inside the EU, the pressure for "a single EU seat" would be stronger. And, of course, we never agree with both France and Germany on anything, so this seat wouldn't count for much. My personal preference is that we volunteer to share the seat with Australia and Canada, with whom we often agree and freely share intelligence, so it's a more natural fit.
You have made a case that we will lose clout quickly in the future, albeit one I disagree with, but you haven't made any case at all that EU membership would improve matters.
As for what "clout" gets, I would argue that it allows you to shape the international order towards your norms. In our case, that's Western democratic norms. Certainly I'm very glad that the USA has the most clout in the world and not, say, Russia, which would be a much less pleasant world.
http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/176537.article
"There has been scant evidence that any Oxford spy enjoyed comparable achievements." (to the Cambridge ring)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22550425
The number of overweight adults in Wales has increased with nearly three in five now being classed as overweight or obese, according to new figures released today.
The Welsh Health Survey revealed that 59% of adults were classified as overweight or obese, including 23% as obese, in 2012.
This is an increase from the figures in 2011, which found that 57% of adults were overweight or obese with 22% being obese.
The survey also found that 34% of adults reported that their day-to-day activities were limited because of a health problem or disability, including 16% who were limited 'a lot'.
More than a third (34%) of children were classified as overweight or obese - a slight fall from 35% in 2011 - but the number being classed as obese remained at 19%.
Meanwhile, 20% of adults reported fair or poor general health, while the same number reported currently being treated for high blood pressure, 14% said they were being treated for a respiratory illness, 12% for arthritis, 11% for a mental illness, 9% for a heart condition, and 7% for diabetes.
Nearly a quarter (23%) of adults said they smoked, while 42% reported drinking above the guidelines on at least one day in the past week, including 26% who reported drinking more than twice the daily guidelines.
Just 29% reported being physically active on five or more days in the past week and 33% of adults reported eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables the previous day.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/health-survey-reveals-nearly-three-3861082
Beckham started at Spurs. I was at an annual shareholders meeting way back in the late-90s when he had just broken into the Man Utd team. Alan Sugar was berating footballers as he often did and told the story of how Tottenham's then head youth coach broke into tears when he learned that Beckham was leaving to go to Man Utd. He then said some other stuff which I can't write down.
Depends what you mean by successful. Anthony Blunt alone could have lost Britain the war.
He passed his Russian handlers Ultra decrypts of enigma machines, as well as every last detail on the huge deception ring MI5 was running on where the DDay landings would take place.
This means the Germans would have only needed a spy in the Kremlin for us to have lose tht U boat war and for D-day to turn into a complete and utter bloodbath.
Even so, the information he gave his Russian handlers was so detailed and comprehensive, it counted against his credibility in the paranoid Kremlin. And even more luckily the Germans had no Russian spy.
He did this even after getting the best of everything from his country.
People who say immigrants don;t have our country at heart really should look at the actions of some of what we call 'our own'.
Would be funny if Labour finished up bankrupting itself like it's done to the country over and over again. :^O
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22552912
What an appalling traitor. How come he never went to prison for his crimes?