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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even m

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the bias to LAB in the electoral system could be even more pronounced at GE2015

The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    1st?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...

    EDIT: Posted right link now.

    On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "I live in the 20th most vulnerable Tory seat to Labour and the level of activity by the red team even at this stage is impressive."

    Are voters not getting peeved at blank pieces of paper being shoved through their door ?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Don't those 2010 numbers suggest the opposite, which is that there's already quite a big squeeze on LibDems in seats where it matters?

    Left-leaning ex-LibDem-sympathetic voters are the people who the polls are showing moving to Labour, and they're the main cause of the consistent improvement in Labour's position on 2010. But if those people were already voting Labour in the seats where it matters, applying UNS to the current position will double-count them. Flipping the first preference of people who are already voting for you in the marginals doesn't win you any more seats.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    If the Lib Dem vote in Tory/Lab contests collapses, then this is going to amplify this bias?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/05/15/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-racially-tolerant-countries/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    I have never understood this either. If not being an EU member is such a disadvantage, how do countries like Dubai, Singapore and China get by?

    As for France, well, if they want to be in some sort of union I would have thought their best bet, like an independent Scotland's, would be to leave the EU and join the GCC.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    The words and punctuation of "innocent face", he said, were merely an indication that the question should be read with a deadpan emphasis or tone, comparable with stage directions such as sotto voce or a notation on a musical score.

    Judgement in the hearing has been reserved.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22553531
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Labour favourite banking model lurches along.

    Wonder what happens when they call in outstanding overdrafts?

    'People close to the regulator said it wanted to help accelerate the appointment of an experienced banker as the Co-op Bank's new boss amid suggestions by City analysts that it could be facing a capital shortfall as high as £1.8bn.'

    http://news.sky.com/story/1091238/pra-aids-search-for-new-co-op-bank-chief
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TGOHF said:

    "I live in the 20th most vulnerable Tory seat to Labour and the level of activity by the red team even at this stage is impressive."

    Are voters not getting peeved at blank pieces of paper being shoved through their door ?

    LOL :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...

    EDIT: Posted right link now.

    On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?

    TBF Socrates, neither Canada nor Australia are very good analogues for the UK. Both are resources rich countries that resemble Norway more than Germany.

    Better example would be New Zealand or Singapore.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @edmund

    But if those people were already voting Labour in the seats where it matters

    Then why would they tell the polling companies they had voted Lib Dem?

    OK, let me rephrase: But if people like them in every respect except the constituency they live in were already voting Labour in the seats where it matters...

    You do a national opinion poll of 1000 people, properly balanced according to key demographic markers like Billy Bragg listenership, and you get a total of 55 Sandalistas. 5 live in Lab/Con marginals, and they tell you they voted Labour. The other 50 tell you they voted LibDem. The 50 who voted LibDem now tell you they'll vote Labour next time.

    So the Lab score just went up 5%. You do your UNS calculation and it looks like a Lab win. But in the marginals where it matters, you're going to end up with the same number of votes as last time.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    I think there's a slim chance of Labour and Lib Dems forming a coalition in the next parliament despite finishing 2nd and 4th in terms of total vote share.

    I'd like to say if that happens then they'd be forced to remove Labour bias in the system, but we all know that it won't make any difference.
  • eckythumpereckythumper Posts: 27
    Here we go again Mike Smithson again has a downer against the Labour Party. Is it that party's fault that it's support is spread more evenly across the country than it's opponents? no it is not.
    Every week we read about the same thing, what do you want, the Labour Party to disband!!! and say sorry for having supporters that want us to be in government. How about only putting up candidates in only Conservative held seats or how about telling the returning officer in every constituency to ignore the first 5000 votes cast for Labour
    For Christ's sake give it a rest
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    tim said:

    I live in the 20th most vulnerable Tory seat to Labour and the level of activity by the red team even at this stage is impressive. LAB canvassing teams are going out every week and they are putting a special on reaching known LD supporters. The Tories, it should be noted have been largely invisible.

    Cameron has halved the Tory membership and then put Grant Shapps in charge of campaigning.
    It's no surprise they are invisible.

    Shapps unfortunately has been promoted beyond his ability. He should have stayed as housing minister which is a key area of policy in the years to come and where he did a good job at annoying lefties.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    FPT:

    Yet more trouble for the BBC and BIJ:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22551914

    Quite a scandal.

    In other words Newsnight journalists faked it. What a surprise!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    tim said:


    ‘We called quite a few dead people’: How the Tories’ lack of data let them down in Eastleigh

    I've asked this before but I don't think anyone answered - anyone know if the Tory database that was broken at Eastleigh is back up yet?

    One of the Tory post-mortems seemed to be suggested that they couldn't use it in the local elections. Since they were a couple of months after Eastleigh, that would seem like quite a heroic clusterfvck, even by enterprise IT standards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    edited May 2013

    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/05/15/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-racially-tolerant-countries/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    I have never understood this either. If not being an EU member is such a disadvantage, how do countries like Dubai, Singapore and China get by?

    As for France, well, if they want to be in some sort of union I would have thought their best bet, like an independent Scotland's, would be to leave the EU and join the GCC.
    Well, if being an EU member is such a disadvantage to us selling to China, how is it Germany is able to run a trade surplus with them?

    The truth is that the EU is neither the panacea put forward by some people, nor the evil impoverisher of Brits posed by others. It is no coincidence that most trade blocks are regional - because many goods are services cost a lot of money to transport, one usually has closer arrangements with those near you, than those a long way away.

    Personally - and I know I'm in a minority of one on this one - think that the freedom of labour across Europe is probably the single best thing the EU has done. I personally relish the fact that people are now free to live where they want, and who they want, without meddlesome bureaucrats saying what forms they need to fill in and whether their wife is allowed to work.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Here we go again Mike Smithson again has a downer against the Labour Party. Is it that party's fault that it's support is spread more evenly across the country than it's opponents? no it is not.
    Every week we read about the same thing, what do you want, the Labour Party to disband!!!
    and say sorry for having supporters that want us to be in government. How about only putting up candidates in only Conservative held seats or how about telling the returning officer in every constituency to ignore the first 5000 votes cast for Labour
    For Christ's sake give it a rest

    Are you a spoof?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MikeK said:

    FPT:

    Yet more trouble for the BBC and BIJ:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22551914

    Quite a scandal.

    In other words Newsnight journalists faked it. What a surprise!
    As you were.

    'A new editor for the programme was announced on Thursday. Ian Katz, from the Guardian, will take up his role in September'.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Does the above mean it would be possible for labour to lose the popular vote to the tories quite handily, and yet still form a majority government??

    Just asking....
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    taffys said:

    Does the above mean it would be possible for labour to lose the popular vote to the tories quite handily, and yet still form a majority government??

    Just asking....

    Possible yes (depending on what you mean by handily), but not likely.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    @edmundintokyo - Edmund makes a very good point: a lot depends on whether there is a differential in behaviour between 2010 LibDem voters in Con/Lab marginals and 2010 LibDem voters in Con/LD marginals. Broadly speaking, one might expect the former to have a rather low proportion of the Labour-lite style of LibDem (because if they preferred Labour, in Con/Lab marginals they'd already be voting Labour), compared with the second group.

    In the extreme case where the LD -> Lab switchers being picked up by the polls were predominantly in Con/LD marginals, the switching would actually be good news for the Tories. I'm not sure we've really got much evidence to go on here, though, and in any case I'd expect many tactical voters to return to their 2010 behaviour as the election nears, even if for the moment they are telling pollsters otherwise.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Lib Dem vote increased in Labour/Conservative marginals in 2010.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    taffys said:

    Does the above mean it would be possible for labour to lose the popular vote to the tories quite handily, and yet still form a majority government??

    Just asking....

    The interesting result would be something like this

    Tories 33

    Labour 32

    LD 10

    UKIP 20

    Which in seats would be

    Tories 284

    Labour 314

    LD 24

    UKIP Zero

    Labour short of majority by 14

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Here we go again Mike Smithson again has a downer against the Labour Party. Is it that party's fault that it's support is spread more evenly across the country than it's opponents? no it is not.
    Every week we read about the same thing, what do you want, the Labour Party to disband!!! and say sorry for having supporters that want us to be in government. How about only putting up candidates in only Conservative held seats or how about telling the returning officer in every constituency to ignore the first 5000 votes cast for Labour
    For Christ's sake give it a rest

    You live under a bridge right?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    This Ed is crap meme is spreading.

    All voters will remember is that the Tories are giving them a referendum – and that Labour isn’t

    http://labourlist.org/2013/05/all-voters-will-remember-is-that-the-tories-are-giving-them-a-referendum-and-that-labour-isnt/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    edited May 2013
    I suggest that the worst factor for inefficiency of votes for seats is not where you come third but where you come a good second. At the last election Labour held on by the skin of their teeth in quite a number of seats making their votes very efficient and the tories very inefficient. Look at some of the marginals in Birmingham and London where the majority was lost.

    The second factor is that even where Labour won they did so with relatively little enthusiasm and a poor turnout making their votes seem more efficient than they were. Take out the Brown factor and things may be different. If Labour were to lose, say, half a dozen seats to the SNP in Scotland but still perform well in those seats and also do much better in the seats that they hold onto in England both factors will reduce their "efficiency".

    It may be that Ed is no better (surely not worse) at inspiring his supporters than Brown but being in opposition will motivate the troops somewhat. My guess is that the Labour advantage next time will still be marked but less so than in 2010.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    taffys said:

    Does the above mean it would be possible for labour to lose the popular vote to the tories quite handily, and yet still form a majority government??

    Just asking....

    The interesting result would be something like this

    Tories 33

    Labour 32

    LD 10

    UKIP 20

    Which in seats would be

    Tories 284

    Labour 314

    LD 24

    UKIP Zero

    Labour short of majority by 14

    I expect the Tories to recover on the back of an economic revival but Labour to increase their vote share from 2010. How about

    Tories 36
    Labour 35
    UKIP 10
    LDs 14

    What does that produce?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    I see the French and the Spanish blocked British efforts to protect European fisheries this week:

    http://metro.co.uk/2013/05/15/cod-dumping-ban-sunk-by-spain-and-the-french-3761028/

    It's worth bearing in mind that the British waters are some of the best left in Europe after other nations plundered their own waters to devastation. They seem well on their way to doing the same with outs. The Spanish can barely even keep to existing weak regulations:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/26/spanish-fishermen-fines

    Controlling our own sovereign waters. Just another reason we'd be Better Off Out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited May 2013
    Norm said:

    taffys said:

    Does the above mean it would be possible for labour to lose the popular vote to the tories quite handily, and yet still form a majority government??

    Just asking....

    The interesting result would be something like this

    Tories 33

    Labour 32

    LD 10

    UKIP 20

    Which in seats would be

    Tories 284

    Labour 314

    LD 24

    UKIP Zero

    Labour short of majority by 14

    I expect the Tories to recover on the back of an economic revival but Labour to increase their vote share from 2010. How about

    Tories 36
    Labour 35
    UKIP 10
    LDs 14

    What does that produce?
    Tories 287

    Labour 311

    LD 25

    UKIP Zero

    Labour short by 15

    Have a play here with the numbers

    http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Blue_rog said:
    Since I have changed body shape dramatically in the last three years, you would think that would be accompanied by a sharp rightward shift in my views on redistribution. So I appear to be living disproof of this theory.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    @Alanbrooke (FPT): (FPT): "Frankly he is a poor leader of men, I'd say this is because he has been promoted too fast"

    Well, that's what happens when you have people made leader after only a few years in Parliament and with no other experience or even experience of being a Minister. Leading and managing a team has nothing to do with how many degrees you have or how good they were. It needs emotional intelligence, experience, cunning, charm, a willingness to say tough things and to hear them etc.

    We're daft as a society assuming that people barely out of short trousers have the sorts of talents needed to do the job we expect them to.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:


    Since I have changed body shape dramatically in the last three years, you would think that would be accompanied by a sharp rightward shift in my views on redistribution. So I appear to be living disproof of this theory.

    Oh, I don't know, antifrank. You voted Green in 2010, right? And today you wrote: "So I find myself, rather to my surprise, believing that David Cameron has got essentially the right policy on the next stage with the EU".

    At this rate, give it another couple of years and some more effort by your personal trainer and you'll be a UKIP supporter.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour short of majority by 14...

    Very interesting TSE. With a result like that, I think the UK would be pretty much ungovernable.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Blue_rog said:
    Since I have changed body shape dramatically in the last three years, you would think that would be accompanied by a sharp rightward shift in my views on redistribution. So I appear to be living disproof of this theory.
    Just how much have you bulked up?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Cyclefree said:

    @Alanbrooke (FPT): (FPT): "Frankly he is a poor leader of men, I'd say this is because he has been promoted too fast"

    Well, that's what happens when you have people made leader after only a few years in Parliament and with no other experience or even experience of being a Minister. Leading and managing a team has nothing to do with how many degrees you have or how good they were. It needs emotional intelligence, experience, cunning, charm, a willingness to say tough things and to hear them etc.

    We're daft as a society assuming that people barely out of short trousers have the sorts of talents needed to do the job we expect them to.

    certainly, however it's also something of a trend in business, you keep seeing young bright things doing key jobs about 5 or 10 years too early. I think part of it is the relentless 24/7 pressure, you need to be young and fit to do some of the jobs and you're burnt out before you're 50.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    'Anti-CON tactical voting could be much greater'

    And anti Lab /Lib Dem tactical voting should surface now that right of centre voters have a choice of two right of centre parties,Eastleigh must be high on UKIP's target list and with the same Tory candidate should be a shoo-in for UKIP.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Blue_rog said:
    Since I have changed body shape dramatically in the last three years, you would think that would be accompanied by a sharp rightward shift in my views on redistribution. So I appear to be living disproof of this theory.
    Just how much have you bulked up?
    That's a fair point, actually. I've mostly lost fat rather than gained lean mass. I was 91.4kgs and 34.9% bodyfat and I was last measured at 72.8kgs and 11.2% bodyfat.

    Putting on the lean mass is the next objective, so stand by for a lurch to the right.

    Though Richard Nabavi makes a good point too...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    taffys said:

    Labour short of majority by 14...

    Very interesting TSE. With a result like that, I think the UK would be pretty much ungovernable.

    My plans for a directly elected Dictator/Tyrant look even more attractive.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    taffys said:

    Labour short of majority by 14...

    Very interesting TSE. With a result like that, I think the UK would be pretty much ungovernable.

    It's 12 years since any party polled above 40% in a GE and 21 since the Tories did. I reckon poll shares like that could be a thing of the past.

    Is it possible to put a bet on that Labour will get the most MPs in 2015 while coming second in vote share? Or is that such a foregone conclusion that the bet can't be placed?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    @Alanbrooke (FPT): (FPT): "Frankly he is a poor leader of men, I'd say this is because he has been promoted too fast"

    Well, that's what happens when you have people made leader after only a few years in Parliament and with no other experience or even experience of being a Minister. Leading and managing a team has nothing to do with how many degrees you have or how good they were. It needs emotional intelligence, experience, cunning, charm, a willingness to say tough things and to hear them etc.

    We're daft as a society assuming that people barely out of short trousers have the sorts of talents needed to do the job we expect them to.

    certainly, however it's also something of a trend in business, you keep seeing young bright things doing key jobs about 5 or 10 years too early. I think part of it is the relentless 24/7 pressure, you need to be young and fit to do some of the jobs and you're burnt out before you're 50.
    Alanbrooke: I am middle-aged (and rather enjoying it!) and have a very stressful job but I am far more effective at it now - as a result of all the experience I have - than I was 20 years ago. One of the reasons people get burnt out is because they're not up to the job and it's also because we don't value experience, hence the frozen rabbits in headlights way people behaved when the credit crisis came. There were simply not enough people around who had either experienced problems like the ones we were facing before or who simply knew how to act in a crisis (any crisis).

    When times are tough, experience and judgment matter. These are not necessarily the preserve of energetic youngsters.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Oh, I don't know, antifrank. You voted Green in 2010, right? And today you wrote: "So I find myself, rather to my surprise, believing that David Cameron has got essentially the right policy on the next stage with the EU".

    Ah, but the Green party wants radical reform of the EU and a referendum on the UK's membership too. antifrank is still clearly one of us ;)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    @Neil - But maybe you've been bulking up too?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Richard

    Yesterday JohnO said I looked like Brian Cowen and today you're saying I'm fat. Whatever happened to PB Tory solidarity?!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    London and the West Midlands: Is there a positive correlation between a constituency's White British % (Census 2011) and Tory vote % (GE 2010)?

    http://t.co/T3RsRfo64i
    http://t.co/VIluaaHWQN

    And is there a negative correlation between a constituency's White British % (Census 2011) and Labour vote % (GE 2010)?

    http://t.co/pCLnYtaY4U
    http://t.co/rURkWBal4B
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916

    taffys said:

    Labour short of majority by 14...

    Very interesting TSE. With a result like that, I think the UK would be pretty much ungovernable.

    My plans for a directly elected Dictator/Tyrant look even more attractive.
    Are you going to reorganise the United Kingdom into the First Galactic Empire? For a safe and secure society?

    :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    So has anyone done a count, do the number exist for this private members bill to pass if it gets to a HoC vote? Would the Tory leadership back it and allow a free vote in which very few would abstain or vote against, assuming Ed and Nick go for a three line whip how many rebels will there be within their ranks? Would there be enough to aid ca. 305 Tory and Unionist MPs to the ~ 320 required to get the bill through?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Across the pond: does anyone remember pre-2008 when there were intakes of breath when Jon Stewart had the temerity to question the holiness of The One?

    How times change.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZuRTUdo5V84
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Or is that such a foregone conclusion that the bet can't be placed?

    I guess when the time comes you could bet on labour to get most seats and at the same time lay them to win the popular vote....

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Neil said:

    @Richard

    Yesterday JohnO said I looked like Brian Cowen and today you're saying I'm fat. Whatever happened to PB Tory solidarity?!

    two tories attacking your physique ? I think that is solidarity Jabba. ;-)
  • eckythumpereckythumper Posts: 27
    The Screaming Eagles

    No i live in the real world not the abstract one you live in
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The Germans are desperate for us to stay in.

    Then why don;t they stop effing agreeing with France and start agreeing with us?

    Germany is like a typical bloke whose best mate and girlfriend don;t get on. He agrees wholeheartedly with his best mate Britain , but the French girlfriend's the one with the t8ts who doles out the bl8w j*bs.

    And that means on Saturdays Germany is in shopping in town as opposed to being at the match with the Brits...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    MikeK said:

    FPT:

    Yet more trouble for the BBC and BIJ:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22551914

    Quite a scandal.

    In other words Newsnight journalists faked it. What a surprise!
    More importantly, it is another case where the Bureau of Investigative Journalism are involved with a false story on the BBC.

    The links between Newsnight and the BIJ, who were also peripherally involved in the McAlpine scandal, should be investigated further. Angus Stickler, the BIJ chief reporter, worked on the Newsnight investigation in the McAlpine case: it's almost as if the BBC don't have enough journalists of their own?...

    And now Stickler's been implicated in this Help for Heroes case as well.

    But to be honest, I'm amazed the BIJ is still going. They've mucked up badly twice now, and have caused one of their associates (the BBC) vast damage.

    I daresay we can all come up with alternative meanings for 'BIJ'. Bodged, Idiotic Journalism?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    taffys said:

    The Germans are desperate for us to stay in.

    Then why don;t they stop effing agreeing with France and start agreeing with us?

    Germany is like a typical bloke whose best mate and girlfriend don;t get on. He agrees wholeheartedly with his best mate Britain , but the French girlfriend's the one with the t8ts who doles out the bl8w j*bs.

    And that means on Saturdays Germany is in shopping in town as opposed to being at the match with the Brits...

    I've always thought of it that France is the wife and UK the mistress, the husband always goes back to the wife, while the mistress gets to spend her weekends alone waiting for the promised divorce.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    OT, Yglesias on Abenomics

    Bad news (sort of): The inflation that was supposed to make everybody spend money didn't show up.
    Good news: People are spending money like it's going out of fashion anyway.
    Even better news: It turns out you can print loads of free money, and you get growth and no inflation.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/16/abenomics_mystery_is_it_working_or_not.html

  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    SeanT said:

    However, and paradoxically, we will only get what we want if we continue to act very stroppily, and harrass Tory leaders, and threaten to vote UKIP, and act like we're heading for the Exit door. If the Europeans don't think we are serious about leaving, they will go back to their default position of Like it or Lump it.

    This is surely obvious negotiating common sense. From a horse-trading perspective the best referendum result Cameron could have would be an Out vote ahead of an attempted renegotiation.

    He then goes to Europe and says Right, we all have a problem; in 3 months, I'm going to re-run the referendum with the new choice being Out or Stay In On New Terms; the latter are what we are going to discuss and they better be good or the Out goes into effect.

    Absolutely the last thing he'd want is an In vote ahead of any attempted negotiation, which torpedoes any leverage he might have; the answer is then just No to everything.

    A referendum held only after such negotiation will be fisked apart as deceitful, because the choice would not be between In and Out, but between In on Existing Terms and Out But Only Onto New Terms, i.e. both votes would be a vote to stay in.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I've always thought of it that France is the wife and UK the mistress.

    In a way the two aren't that different. The point is, as you say, France is 'the missus....'
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    The links between Newsnight and the BIJ, who were also peripherally involved in the McAlpine scandal, should be investigated further. Angus Stickler, the BIJ chief reporter, worked on the Newsnight investigation in the McAlpine case: it's almost as if the BBC don't have enough journalists of their own?...

    And now Stickler's been implicated in this Help for Heroes case as well.

    Well, you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out the common factor in those two subjects, do you? A quick Google on 'Help for Heroes' and 'Ashcroft' will do the trick.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The UK is like the mother-in-law: not much fun, a tendency to say "I told you so" at every opportunity and an irrational hatred of the victim.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Has this been linked? It's interesting:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/15/germany-campaign-uk-eu

    "The German government has thrown its formidable weight in Europe behind a campaign to keep Britain in the EU, describing the fallout from a UK exit from the union as a disaster for all parties and also supporting Washington's pressure on London to stay in.

    "Top government figures in Berlin made absolutely clear they saw continued UK membership of the EU as central to Berlin's priorities in seeking to reverse European economic decline and to counter protectionist pressures in France and other Mediterranean countries."

    Now that the Federalists and europhiles have stopped chortling at Farage, and sneering at eurosceptics, and now that they have realised that a British exit is a very real possibility, we are seeing their true colours.

    The Germans are desperate for us to stay in. I imagine many northern countries feel the same: Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Holland - and Ireland of course. An EU shorn of Britain's crucial balancing weight would be an unhappy cock-pit where German glowered at France as the Italians sprawled in the dust.

    Lord Lawson is wrong: if Cameron plays his cards right we COULD get some very significant concessions, and get a kind of EU membership that keeps us happy, yet still inside the tent.

    However, and paradoxically, we will only get what we want if we continue to act very stroppily, and harrass Tory leaders, and threaten to vote UKIP, and act like we're heading for the Exit door. If the Europeans don't think we are serious about leaving, they will go back to their default position of Like it or Lump it.

    So everyone should vote for Farage in 2014, at the very minimum.

    I would have more confidence in people's predictions of "significant concessions" if such people actually said what sort of level we're talking. Slashing of the CAP budget? Allowing member states to negotiate our own trade deals? Opt out of the social chapter? End of free movement of labour? I have a feeling such people think "significant" means a veto on financial regulation and a couple bits of the social chapter back.

    We also need to remember that any changes need to be absolutely set in stone. Reform of the CAP was promised but barely happened. The cut in the EU budget has been more than reversed for 2013, and the same thing is likely to happen in future years. It needs to be utterly concrete.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...

    EDIT: Posted right link now.

    On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?

    TBF Socrates, neither Canada nor Australia are very good analogues for the UK. Both are resources rich countries that resemble Norway more than Germany.

    Better example would be New Zealand or Singapore.
    So outside the EU the UK would be like Singapore, huh? Would that be the same Singapore which has one of the world's lowest crime rates? And incredibly good health care? And a per capita GDP of $60,000, the third highest in the world?

    http://tinyurl.com/d5n87

    I suspect 95% of Brits would be very happy if the UK was much more like Singapore, and to hell with "global clout".
    We will have global clout in or out of the EU. When the hell has the EU ever helped our global clout? On Sierra Leone? On Iraq? On Libya? On world trade talks? We've never been able to get them to do anything and they've never been able to get us to do anything. It's meaningless. We have global clout because we have a seat on the UNSC, because we're a top ten economy and will be for decades, because we are very close to the Americans, and because we're prepared to take our portion of responsibility for world crises, unlike the Germans. It's nothing to do with the EU.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...

    EDIT: Posted right link now.

    On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?

    TBF Socrates, neither Canada nor Australia are very good analogues for the UK. Both are resources rich countries that resemble Norway more than Germany.

    Better example would be New Zealand or Singapore.
    So outside the EU the UK would be like Singapore, huh? Would that be the same Singapore which has one of the world's lowest crime rates? And incredibly good health care? And a per capita GDP of $60,000, the third highest in the world?

    http://tinyurl.com/d5n87

    I suspect 95% of Brits would be very happy if the UK was much more like Singapore, and to hell with "global clout".
    The population of Singapore is about the same as Scotland and about one Birmingham greater than New Zealand. I'm not sure you could scale it up to England as a whole, with ten times the population.

    Arguably London is not far off being equivalent to Singapore, and would be pretty close if it could convince the rest of England to be independent in the way that Singapore is not part of Malaysia.

    Where would one draw the border around an independent city-state of London?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Germany quite fancies a holiday in the Far East, where everyone is so much more appreciative, if you have some money.

    And Britain is cracking company that knows that what happens on tour, stays on tour.

    Apparently Holland's up for a boys week-end too. Likes a beer, does Holland. Shall we invite Finland? Minted but a bit dull...???

    As long as Belgium doesn;t get wind of it. they'd want to come but bound to spill the beans to France eventually...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...

    EDIT: Posted right link now.

    On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?

    TBF Socrates, neither Canada nor Australia are very good analogues for the UK. Both are resources rich countries that resemble Norway more than Germany.

    Better example would be New Zealand or Singapore.
    So outside the EU the UK would be like Singapore, huh? Would that be the same Singapore which has one of the world's lowest crime rates? And incredibly good health care? And a per capita GDP of $60,000, the third highest in the world?

    http://tinyurl.com/d5n87

    I suspect 95% of Brits would be very happy if the UK was much more like Singapore, and to hell with "global clout".
    The population of Singapore is about the same as Scotland and about one Birmingham greater than New Zealand. I'm not sure you could scale it up to England as a whole, with ten times the population.

    Arguably London is not far off being equivalent to Singapore, and would be pretty close if it could convince the rest of England to be independent in the way that Singapore is not part of Malaysia.

    Where would one draw the border around an independent city-state of London?
    I was thinking more of a 50 metre electric fence myself.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Has this been linked? It's interesting:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/15/germany-campaign-uk-eu

    "The German government has thrown its formidable weight in Europe behind a campaign to keep Britain in the EU, describing the fallout from a UK exit from the union as a disaster for all parties and also supporting Washington's pressure on London to stay in.

    "Top government figures in Berlin made absolutely clear they saw continued UK membership of the EU as central to Berlin's priorities in seeking to reverse European economic decline and to counter protectionist pressures in France and other Mediterranean countries."

    Now that the Federalists and europhiles have stopped chortling at Farage, and sneering at eurosceptics, and now that they have realised that a British exit is a very real possibility, we are seeing their true colours.

    The Germans are desperate for us to stay in. I imagine many northern countries feel the same: Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Holland - and Ireland of course. An EU shorn of Britain's crucial balancing weight would be an unhappy cock-pit where German glowered at France as the Italians sprawled in the dust.

    Lord Lawson is wrong: if Cameron plays his cards right we COULD get some very significant concessions, and get a kind of EU membership that keeps us happy, yet still inside the tent.

    However, and paradoxically, we will only get what we want if we continue to act very stroppily, and harrass Tory leaders, and threaten to vote UKIP, and act like we're heading for the Exit door. If the Europeans don't think we are serious about leaving, they will go back to their default position of Like it or Lump it.

    So everyone should vote for Farage in 2014, at the very minimum.

    I would have more confidence in people's predictions of "significant concessions" if such people actually said what sort of level we're talking. Slashing of the CAP budget? Allowing member states to negotiate our own trade deals? Opt out of the social chapter? End of free movement of labour? I have a feeling such people think "significant" means a veto on financial regulation and a couple bits of the social chapter back.

    We also need to remember that any changes need to be absolutely set in stone. Reform of the CAP was promised but barely happened. The cut in the EU budget has been more than reversed for 2013, and the same thing is likely to happen in future years. It needs to be utterly concrete.

    I agree entirely. We need to play hardball. And - as many of us have been saying for YEARS - the Europeans will only take us seriously if, in turn, we make it clear our threat to leave is absolutely sincere.

    The fact Cameron had to be bullied by UKIP into adopting this position reflects badly on him, but at least he got there in the end. Miliband is hopelessly lost in his own contradictions.

    If Miliband wins, Europe will come back and bite him on the ass. Very very painfully. Miliband is such a mediocrity. I'm not sure he has a single sensible or original idea in his weird-shaped head. He's just a wonk.
    I've just had a thought! If Milliband wins what's the betting the EU will force the UK to pass laws preventing the chance of leaving ever being a threat in the future?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    Heathrow is inside the M25.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    We need to play hardball.

    I've said this before but the europhile notion that people will only listen to you if you are 'committed to the club' is one of the greatest idiocies of modern Western politics. And it is now being shown to be an utter fallacy as the EU finally sits up and takes notice.

    Britain is paying the piper. We should call the tune. End of.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    Where would one draw the border around an independent city-state of London?

    Everything inside the shape bounded by the North Circular Road, the Thames, and the A12.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    I prefer physical boundaries where possible. One could get reasonably close to what you suggest if London laid claim to everything within the M25 and everything within 12 miles of the River Thames.

    This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 132
    SeanT said:


    There I disagree with you. Britain does magnify its political and diplomatic leverage by being in the EU. Outside it we would be a middle ranking power fast descending the global ranks. Your prediction that we would "stay in the top ten for decades" is, for example, extremely dubious.

    At present we are 7th or 6th, depending on how you see it. Brazil will definitively overtake us in a year or so, India and Russia will soon follow, then Indonesia and Mexico within two decades max, just because of their vast populations compared to ours (and our low growth rate). That puts us outside the top ten within two decades.

    At that point our UNSC seat would become untenable, if not before. And so on, and so forth. So we WOULD lose "clout", by exiting the EU.

    But of course we would gain our freedom, and quite possibly become more propserous, after a period of adjustment.

    And in the end where does "clout" get you anyway? It gets you into wars. And what else?

    America has enormous, overwhelming military "clout" compared to China, America is much more powerful as a global force; and yet China is poised to overtake America in economic size, nonetheless.

    This is something that irritates me with Europhiles, the insistence that we have more influence as an EU member. Yes the EU has a louder voice that we do on our own, but in the EU we have the same voice as Luxembourg or Cyprus to the outside world. What good is having loud voice when it says things you disagree with?

    Yes our world standing will decline over time, though not as far or fast as you say. But the EU's standing will also decline for exactly the same reasons.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited May 2013
    MaxPB said:

    So has anyone done a count, do the number exist for this private members bill to pass if it gets to a HoC vote? Would the Tory leadership back it and allow a free vote in which very few would abstain or vote against, assuming Ed and Nick go for a three line whip how many rebels will there be within their ranks? Would there be enough to aid ca. 305 Tory and Unionist MPs to the ~ 320 required to get the bill through?

    Max, basically, getting any private member's bill through against the solid opposition of one party doesn't happen, even if you do have a solid majority - see fox-hunting as an example. Zillions of amendments, interminable speeches, etc. finish it off. It needs government time, which needs the support of both parties in government. Therein lies the snag. As a mechanism for apparently differentiating Tories from LibDems it works. As a way to actually doing anything, it doesn't. BOTH aspects are probably seen by Cameron as a feature, not a bug, as EiT would say. Speaking of whom...

    Don't those 2010 numbers suggest the opposite, which is that there's already quite a big squeeze on LibDems in seats where it matters?

    Left-leaning ex-LibDem-sympathetic voters are the people who the polls are showing moving to Labour, and they're the main cause of the consistent improvement in Labour's position on 2010. But if those people were already voting Labour in the seats where it matters, applying UNS to the current position will double-count them. Flipping the first preference of people who are already voting for you in the marginals doesn't win you any more seats.

    There's clearly something in that, but don't underestimate the ability of LibDems to have kidded people last time: the ultra-marginals of today were generally not ultra-marginal in 2010. Certainly in my patch there were loads of people who swallowed the line that Labour was going down and LibDems were going up, so only the fearlessly left-wing LibDems could stop the evil Tories.That group is implacably anti-LibDem these days, more so than traditional Labour voters since the latter weren't actually deceived.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    What significant concessions are people expecting other EU member states to give us in order to keep the UK in the club?

    Free movement of goods, services and people is a non-starter, as is anything that will give us any kind of appreciable advantage over anyone else. So no control of fisheries, no ability to subsidise certain industries, no chance of negotiating separate trade treaties and so on.

    What we would get are guarantees not to do certain things that have not yet been done and, perhaps, the ability to give British employees a worse deal in terms of holidays and protections than their equivalents get in other parts of the EU. And that, basically, will be that.

    All of which is why Dave is not telling us what he would like to renegotiate. The 2017 referendum is just a way to get the Tories past the next election before they finally and irrevocably tear themselves apart.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2013

    Where would one draw the border around an independent city-state of London?

    Everything inside the shape bounded by the North Circular Road, the Thames, and the A12.
    That's a bit more modest, and I think it places the centre of the city-state of London roughly in SeanT's flat.

    Having thought about this some more, I think the catchment area for the river Thames makes a lot of sense, though it does include Luton and one could annex a bit of land around the estuary as required, perhaps the Medway?. That would give Singapore a run for its money, and you'd have enough of Southern England to outvote the Labour parts of London.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    I prefer physical boundaries where possible. One could get reasonably close to what you suggest if London laid claim to everything within the M25 and everything within 12 miles of the River Thames.

    This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
    I suggest you rethink. Are you really sure you want Oxford, and not the far superior Cambridge?

    After all, Oxford gave us Miliband and Cameron, whilst Cambridge gave us Newton, Darwin, Hawking, Babbage, Rutherford, Turing, Whittle, Kelvin, Pepys, Marlowe, Tennyson, and the structure of DNA.

    Without Cambridge, we wouldn't know about the laws of motion, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, or discovered evolution, hydrogen, or the electron.

    Without Oxford, we wouldn't have many of our politicians and religious figures.

    No contest. :-)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    I prefer physical boundaries where possible. One could get reasonably close to what you suggest if London laid claim to everything within the M25 and everything within 12 miles of the River Thames.

    This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
    I suggest you rethink. Are you really sure you want Oxford, and not the far superior Cambridge?

    After all, Oxford gave us Miliband and Cameron, whilst Cambridge gave us Newton, Darwin, Hawking, Babbage, Rutherford, Turing, Whittle, Kelvin, Pepys, Marlowe, Tennyson, and the structure of DNA.

    Without Cambridge, we wouldn't know about the laws of motion, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, or discovered evolution, hydrogen, or the electron.

    Without Oxford, we wouldn't have many of our politicians and religious figures.

    No contest. :-)
    Shh let them keep Oxford, they'll bankrupt themselves within a couple of years. The only thing of value in Oxford is the Mini factory, we'll keep Cowley.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Labour favourite banking model lurches along.

    Wonder what happens when they call in outstanding overdrafts?

    'People close to the regulator said it wanted to help accelerate the appointment of an experienced banker as the Co-op Bank's new boss amid suggestions by City analysts that it could be facing a capital shortfall as high as £1.8bn.'

    http://news.sky.com/story/1091238/pra-aids-search-for-new-co-op-bank-chief

    Which Guardian journo will be running the Co op bank this time next week ?

    PS

    Anyone seen this disgraceful attack on whelks in the DT ?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217259/ignore-the-tory-euro-turmoil-the-economy-is-improving-and-ed-miliband-still-has-the-political-nous-of-a-whelk/

    " three important fundamentals remain. The first is that Ed Miliband has again demonstrated he has the political instincts of a whelk. This was his opportunity – I suspect his final opportunity – to seriously exploit Tory divisions over Europe. He failed to take it.

    Ultimately Labour will be forced to shift its stance on a referendum. Going into the next election saying “We’re the One Nation party, we believe in a new style of politics. And that means we can’t let you have a say on Europe because big business doesn’t want us to” is utterly unsustainable.

    Ed Miliband will shift, he will face the same charges of political opportunism he is attempting to avoid now, and he will do so as an act of political weakness, rather than strength. Crucially, he will do so too late."
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "The only thing of value in Oxford is the Mini factory, we'll keep Cowley."

    I suggest you draw a neat little circle around the Mini factory, if you're looking for anything of value in Cowley...
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    David Beckham retires...

    Man Utd, Real Madrid, LA Galaxy, AC Milan, PSG & England
    Won the league with clubs all bar Milan
    Champions League w Utd
    115 England caps, 59 as captain
    What a career
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Grandiose said:

    "The only thing of value in Oxford is the Mini factory, we'll keep Cowley."

    I suggest you draw a neat little circle around the Mini factory, if you're looking for anything of value in Cowley...

    LOL - harsh !
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    I prefer physical boundaries where possible. One could get reasonably close to what you suggest if London laid claim to everything within the M25 and everything within 12 miles of the River Thames.

    This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
    I suggest you rethink. Are you really sure you want Oxford, and not the far superior Cambridge?

    After all, Oxford gave us Miliband and Cameron, whilst Cambridge gave us Newton, Darwin, Hawking, Babbage, Rutherford, Turing, Whittle, Kelvin, Pepys, Marlowe, Tennyson, and the structure of DNA.

    Without Cambridge, we wouldn't know about the laws of motion, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, or discovered evolution, hydrogen, or the electron.

    Without Oxford, we wouldn't have many of our politicians and religious figures.

    No contest. :-)
    I always thought of Cambridge as a hotbed of traitors. In any case, I can't think of a physical boundary that would include Cambridge without also encompassing the rest of East Anglia. That would be silly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    I prefer physical boundaries where possible. One could get reasonably close to what you suggest if London laid claim to everything within the M25 and everything within 12 miles of the River Thames.

    This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
    I suggest you rethink. Are you really sure you want Oxford, and not the far superior Cambridge?

    After all, Oxford gave us Miliband and Cameron, whilst Cambridge gave us Newton, Darwin, Hawking, Babbage, Rutherford, Turing, Whittle, Kelvin, Pepys, Marlowe, Tennyson, and the structure of DNA.

    Without Cambridge, we wouldn't know about the laws of motion, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, or discovered evolution, hydrogen, or the electron.

    Without Oxford, we wouldn't have many of our politicians and religious figures.

    No contest. :-)
    Shh let them keep Oxford, they'll bankrupt themselves within a couple of years. The only thing of value in Oxford is the Mini factory, we'll keep Cowley.
    That's another point. If you follow the Thames as far as Oxford, then you'll get dreary Reading as well, along with the pointless media and celebs who live on the Thames between Reading and Windsor (you'll also get Eton).

    Go north to Cambridge and you'll get loads of charming town and villages.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    What significant concessions are people expecting other EU member states to give us in order to keep the UK in the club?

    Free movement of goods, services and people is a non-starter, as is anything that will give us any kind of appreciable advantage over anyone else. So no control of fisheries, no ability to subsidise certain industries, no chance of negotiating separate trade treaties and so on.

    What we would get are guarantees not to do certain things that have not yet been done and, perhaps, the ability to give British employees a worse deal in terms of holidays and protections than their equivalents get in other parts of the EU. And that, basically, will be that.

    All of which is why Dave is not telling us what he would like to renegotiate. The 2017 referendum is just a way to get the Tories past the next election before they finally and irrevocably tear themselves apart.

    Negotiating separate trade treaties could be given to all member states, not just the UK.

    I agree that won't happen though. The protectionist bloc in the EU is far too strong.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    @SouthamObserver - Clearly, in objective terms (rather than political grandstanding or populist terms), the absolute number one priority is a veto on financial regulation. The Blair/Brown blunder on giving control of our most important industry to people at best indifferent to it, and to a large extent either hostile to it or trying to grab it for themselves, was perhaps the biggest economic blunder of their whole lamentable record. I cannot understand what on earth they were thinking - it was utter madness, was completely unnecessary, and they didn't even get anything in return.

    Of course, for political purposes this will be played down, since irrational banker-bashing (invariably by people who haven't the faintest clue what the City actually does) is fashionable at the moment. But that doesn't alter the fact that we really, really do need to get back control of this if we are to have any chance of prospering again over the next few years.

    If we can't, we should leave. It's as simple as that.

    As regards everything else, the Fresh Start group of Tory MPs has been doing some good background work:

    http://www.eufreshstart.org/downloads/executivesummary.pdf

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    antifrank said:

    @OblitusSumMe - Everything within the M25, Heathrow, Boris Island, and colonies formed of selected parts of the Home Counties that by plebiscite decided that they would submit to London's jurisdiction.

    I prefer physical boundaries where possible. One could get reasonably close to what you suggest if London laid claim to everything within the M25 and everything within 12 miles of the River Thames.

    This would net you Oxford, Reading and the Wychwood brewery in Witney.
    I suggest you rethink. Are you really sure you want Oxford, and not the far superior Cambridge?

    After all, Oxford gave us Miliband and Cameron, whilst Cambridge gave us Newton, Darwin, Hawking, Babbage, Rutherford, Turing, Whittle, Kelvin, Pepys, Marlowe, Tennyson, and the structure of DNA.

    Without Cambridge, we wouldn't know about the laws of motion, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, or discovered evolution, hydrogen, or the electron.

    Without Oxford, we wouldn't have many of our politicians and religious figures.

    No contest. :-)
    I always thought of Cambridge as a hotbed of traitors. In any case, I can't think of a physical boundary that would include Cambridge without also encompassing the rest of East Anglia. That would be silly.
    You remember the Cambridge spies because they were successful - even rising as far as being Surveyor of the King's pictures. We don't remember Oxford spies because they were Oxford-trained - imagine Miliband or Cameron trying to be a spy...

    As for a physical boundary, just take everything east of the A1 as far as Huntingdon, then northeastwards to meet the Wash near Kings Lynn. Don't worry about the rest of East Anglia - coastal erosion'll mean it'll disappear in a couple of hundred years.

    Londoners will need somewhere to relax, and the Broads are lovely.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @JosiasJessop
    "We don't remember Oxford spies because they were Oxford-trained"

    Exactly.

    Testament to them.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Bangladesh_enclaves

    Just pick where you want, forget about a coherent border.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    Laughable link on the previous thread on Brexit:

    http://blog.berenberg.de/the-brexit-risk/

    Britain would "cripple its economy and destroy its political clout". Who's crippling their economy more, independent countries like Australia or Canada, or those like France and Italy at the heart of EU integration?

    As for political clout, given that Germany has a population and an economy a third higher than ours, yet has next to no clout, it's almost like EU membership doesn't affect these things much...

    EDIT: Posted right link now.

    On another point, this idiot economist thinks the UK can't sell services to the rest of the world because of timezone issues. How does that chime with the fact that more of our service exports go to the rest of the world than the EU?

    TBF Socrates, neither Canada nor Australia are very good analogues for the UK. Both are resources rich countries that resemble Norway more than Germany.

    Better example would be New Zealand or Singapore.
    So outside the EU the UK would be like Singapore, huh? Would that be the same Singapore which has one of the world's lowest crime rates? And incredibly good health care? And a per capita GDP of $60,000, the third highest in the world?

    http://tinyurl.com/d5n87

    I suspect 95% of Brits would be very happy if the UK was much more like Singapore, and to hell with "global clout".
    We will have global clout in or out of the EU. When the hell has the EU ever helped our global clout? On Sierra Leone? On Iraq? On Libya? On world trade talks? We've never been able to get them to do anything and they've never been able to get us to do anything. It's meaningless. We have global clout because we have a seat on the UNSC, because we're a top ten economy and will be for decades, because we are very close to the Americans, and because we're prepared to take our portion of responsibility for world crises, unlike the Germans. It's nothing to do with the EU.
    There I disagree with you. Britain does magnify its political and diplomatic leverage by being in the EU. Outside it we would be a middle ranking power fast descending the global ranks. Your prediction that we would "stay in the top ten for decades" is, for example, extremely dubious.

    At present we are 7th or 6th, depending on how you see it. Brazil will definitively overtake us in a year or so, India and Russia will soon follow, then Indonesia and Mexico within two decades max, just because of their vast populations compared to ours (and our low growth rate). That puts us outside the top ten within two decades.

    At that point our UNSC seat would become untenable, if not before. And so on, and so forth. So we WOULD lose "clout", by exiting the EU.

    But of course we would gain our freedom, and quite possibly become more propserous, after a period of adjustment.

    And in the end where does "clout" get you anyway? It gets you into wars. And what else?

    America has enormous, overwhelming military "clout" compared to China, America is much more powerful as a global force; and yet China is poised to overtake America in economic size, nonetheless.

    PwC projects Indonesia and Mexico to overtake us some time between 2030 and 2050. Eyeballing the 2050 numbers, it looks like Indonesia will be towards the end of that range, so we will indeed stay in the top ten into the 2040s.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_GDP_(nominal)#Long_term_GDP_estimates

    The growth rates of emerging economies are also slowing faster than expected since those projections were made. I don't see how staying in the EU would change this, other than that we would have more trade barriers to trading with these booming economies, so our GDP growth would be slower, making us fall down the list faster.

    I agree it's possible that our UNSC seat would become untenable, but that would be true inside or outside the EU. In fact, inside the EU, the pressure for "a single EU seat" would be stronger. And, of course, we never agree with both France and Germany on anything, so this seat wouldn't count for much. My personal preference is that we volunteer to share the seat with Australia and Canada, with whom we often agree and freely share intelligence, so it's a more natural fit.

    You have made a case that we will lose clout quickly in the future, albeit one I disagree with, but you haven't made any case at all that EU membership would improve matters.

    As for what "clout" gets, I would argue that it allows you to shape the international order towards your norms. In our case, that's Western democratic norms. Certainly I'm very glad that the USA has the most clout in the world and not, say, Russia, which would be a much less pleasant world.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Grandiose said:

    @JosiasJessop
    "We don't remember Oxford spies because they were Oxford-trained"

    Exactly.

    Testament to them.

    No, they were all caught early on. ;-)

    http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/176537.article

    "There has been scant evidence that any Oxford spy enjoyed comparable achievements." (to the Cambridge ring)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Here we go again Mike Smithson again has a downer against the Labour Party.
    Every week we read about the same thing, what do you want, the Labour Party to disband!!! and say sorry for having supporters that want us to be in government.

    Well since you ask... ;)

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There have been other interesting developments in relation to the EU north of the border:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22550425
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT

    The number of overweight adults in Wales has increased with nearly three in five now being classed as overweight or obese, according to new figures released today.

    The Welsh Health Survey revealed that 59% of adults were classified as overweight or obese, including 23% as obese, in 2012.

    This is an increase from the figures in 2011, which found that 57% of adults were overweight or obese with 22% being obese.

    The survey also found that 34% of adults reported that their day-to-day activities were limited because of a health problem or disability, including 16% who were limited 'a lot'.

    More than a third (34%) of children were classified as overweight or obese - a slight fall from 35% in 2011 - but the number being classed as obese remained at 19%.

    Meanwhile, 20% of adults reported fair or poor general health, while the same number reported currently being treated for high blood pressure, 14% said they were being treated for a respiratory illness, 12% for arthritis, 11% for a mental illness, 9% for a heart condition, and 7% for diabetes.

    Nearly a quarter (23%) of adults said they smoked, while 42% reported drinking above the guidelines on at least one day in the past week, including 26% who reported drinking more than twice the daily guidelines.

    Just 29% reported being physically active on five or more days in the past week and 33% of adults reported eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables the previous day.

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/health-survey-reveals-nearly-three-3861082
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited May 2013
    MODERATED

    Beckham started at Spurs. I was at an annual shareholders meeting way back in the late-90s when he had just broken into the Man Utd team. Alan Sugar was berating footballers as he often did and told the story of how Tottenham's then head youth coach broke into tears when he learned that Beckham was leaving to go to Man Utd. He then said some other stuff which I can't write down.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited May 2013
    <MODERATED
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You remember the Cambridge spies because they were successful - even rising as far as being Surveyor of the King's pictures.

    Depends what you mean by successful. Anthony Blunt alone could have lost Britain the war.

    He passed his Russian handlers Ultra decrypts of enigma machines, as well as every last detail on the huge deception ring MI5 was running on where the DDay landings would take place.

    This means the Germans would have only needed a spy in the Kremlin for us to have lose tht U boat war and for D-day to turn into a complete and utter bloodbath.

    Even so, the information he gave his Russian handlers was so detailed and comprehensive, it counted against his credibility in the paranoid Kremlin. And even more luckily the Germans had no Russian spy.

    He did this even after getting the best of everything from his country.

    People who say immigrants don;t have our country at heart really should look at the actions of some of what we call 'our own'.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited May 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    Here we go again Mike Smithson again has a downer against the Labour Party.
    Every week we read about the same thing, what do you want, the Labour Party to disband!!! and say sorry for having supporters that want us to be in government.

    Well since you ask... ;)

    Actually Labour might not have to disband, aren't they going bust with the CO-OP?

    Would be funny if Labour finished up bankrupting itself like it's done to the country over and over again. :^O

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    How on Earth do you only get eleven years for rape and slavery?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22552912
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @taffys

    What an appalling traitor. How come he never went to prison for his crimes?
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 132
    On topic, the bias will be worse because the boundaries haven't been updated to take account of the continual drift of people out of the dumps that still vote Labour, so the electorates in Labour seats will be even smaller than they were last time.
This discussion has been closed.