And what is your evidence that more foreign investment would come in?
Best sources of public information are the periodic (monthly/quarterly/annual) reports issued by the DMO.
Here is an explanatory run-in to Chart A.4 in the Debt and Reserves Management Report 2014-15. The chart compares pre-recession shares of gilt purchasers to current shares.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in Q3 2007 the three largest investor groups were: insurance companies and pension funds (48%), overseas investors (31%) and non-financial corporations and other financial institutions (16%). Since then there have been significant shifts in the proportionate holdings of gilts, in part driven by the substantial increase in the size of the debt stock, as well as by the introduction of the quantitative easing programme by the Bank of England. In Q3 2013 the three largest gilt investor groups were: overseas investors (29%), the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (27%) and insurance companies and pension funds (27%).
In 2007, overseas investors accounted for 31% of a much smaller total of gilt issuance, but the fact the gilt issues are regularly over subscribed, with strong domestic and overseas demand. Here is a comment from the same report on demand from overseas investors:
In recent years, international investors have been an important source of demand for gilts. In 2014-15, market expectations are for continued demand from international investors, including central banks and reserve managers looking to diversify growing reserves. However, cross-market flows into, and out of, gilts in 2014-15 may be affected by market expectations around the path of global economic growth.
So it is a judgement call on whether reducing BoE demand can be replaced by increasing overseas investment. The scale being discussed however would involve fairly limited risk to the DMO given no external shocks. And the BoE can always use existing remits to re-enter the market if such shocks occur and there is a sudden fall-off in overseas demand. Remember actual borrowing by the government as serviced by gilt issuance is rapidly falling.
"Budget airline Ryanair has confirmed it is to start flying from Glasgow Airport in October, with the launch of seven routes."
"some destinations, including Dublin, will move from Prestwick to Glasgow."
Perhaps the SNP have purchased spare capacity at Prestwick in order for it to be a landbase for servicing the aircraft carriers?
Avery , given the devastation that Tories and Labour have inflicted on Ayrshire and given the employment at the airport the SNP had to save it. Given its strategic position , length of runway and fact that it never ever gets closed down is another factor along with the aerospace industries clustered around it that will be required when independent. Given Glasgow airport does not even have a rail link it seems crazy but there you are, it will have the Labour Party whooping they would love to see more job losses in Ayrshire.
Come on, Malc.
Prestwick was a white elephant even in the mid 1970s, long before the SNP gained power.
Can't Eck give it to Wales? I understand the Labour administration in Cardiff are looking for a long runway to show off.
Cardiff has a long runway. So long BA use it as one of their maintenance hubs as anything can land there. Bristol, the main local airport competitor, is much much more successful commercially but only has a short runway.
Ironically both airports are in the "wrong" place. Bristol's down a country road south west of the city (ie the wrong side for anyone from the Midlands), and Cardiff stuck out on the coast down an even smaller country lane the wrong side of Cardiff from the valleys or the Midlands.
Amazingly Cardiff has no rail link even though the train goes to only Barry five miles away.
So there we have it a tip top, super long runway, sat doing bugger all, because there are no transport links and it's in the wrong place in the first place.
Good luck with persuading the EU to close the single market! You could, of course, argue for us to leave the EU and then impose a minimum corporation tax rate on the UK - but since we are on the virtuous side already and heading even lower that would achieve little.
I think what you are really arguing for is that:
A. Ireland increases its corporation tax rates (which would destroy their economy). and/or B. EU countries harmonise their corporation tax rates (and destroy competitive incentives)
Oh dear. The real problem is not that Ireland has a 10% rate but that France and Germany and others do not.
(It's also very interesting to note that alot of UK companies are subject to takeover interest from the US right now as the merged entity could be UK domiciled and avoid damagingly high rates of US corporation tax. Osborne is bringing investment, business and jobs to the UK with ever more competitive tax arrangements. This, of course, does not compute with the left).
Mr. Patrick, I am not sure why you feel the need to tell me what I am arguing for given that I have already said what I think would be a good idea. I am also at a loss as to why you want to talk about comparative Corporation Tax rates given that I suggest abolishing that tax in the UK.
P.S. "This, of course, does not compute with the left", are you suggesting that I am of the left? You wouldn't be the first, SeanT once accused me of being some sort of Neo-Marxist. Yet only a week or two ago, I was by another denizen of this site put in the extreme right wing camp.
I post this without comment, other than that there is a short advert before it starts. For those interested in making the comparison with @Pulpstar's video,
P.S. Lucky that US video on wealth distribution was public domain as The Guardian would have had to answer for copyright infringement as well as plagiarism!
"In Scotland there’s a similar [i.e. huge] split between those born there and those born elsewhere." I believe this, but what is the evidence?
The "don't know/won't say" group are, I am sure, just very uncertain about what might follow independence, and it seems to many of us that neither side is itself clear on the matter. So the maxim "if in doubt, don't" will apply. I think the polls now understate the scale of the rejection on 18th September. I also hope that is the case because if not the SNP will follow the EU example and insist on further votes until the right answer is obtained.
Interestingly, those born outside either place are more likely to vote Yes than the Scottish-born.
Probably because they just can't believe their luck! No university fees, free residential care for the elderly, etc, etc, etc. and all provided from the same tax rates as apply to the English.
What concerns me about this ICM poll is its enormous re-weighting in terms of the social scale. In its raw unweighted form ABC2 account for 60.0% of the sample and C2DE account for 40.0%. As re-weighted, this ratios is turned on its head with ABC2 accounting for 43.5% and C2DE 56.5%. I understand the need to re-weight a sample but the adjustment in this case appears to be extreme.
Comments
Here is an explanatory run-in to Chart A.4 in the Debt and Reserves Management Report 2014-15. The chart compares pre-recession shares of gilt purchasers to current shares.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in Q3 2007 the three largest investor groups were: insurance companies and pension funds (48%), overseas investors (31%) and non-financial corporations and other financial institutions (16%). Since then there have been significant shifts in the proportionate holdings of gilts, in part driven by the substantial increase in the size of the debt stock, as well as by the introduction of the quantitative easing programme by the Bank of England. In Q3 2013 the three largest gilt investor groups were: overseas investors (29%), the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (27%) and insurance companies and pension funds (27%).
In 2007, overseas investors accounted for 31% of a much smaller total of gilt issuance, but the fact the gilt issues are regularly over subscribed, with strong domestic and overseas demand. Here is a comment from the same report on demand from overseas investors:
In recent years, international investors have been an important source of demand for gilts. In 2014-15, market expectations are for continued demand from international investors, including central banks and reserve managers looking to diversify growing reserves. However, cross-market flows into, and out of, gilts in 2014-15 may be affected by market expectations around the path of global economic growth.
So it is a judgement call on whether reducing BoE demand can be replaced by increasing overseas investment. The scale being discussed however would involve fairly limited risk to the DMO given no external shocks. And the BoE can always use existing remits to re-enter the market if such shocks occur and there is a sudden fall-off in overseas demand. Remember actual borrowing by the government as serviced by gilt issuance is rapidly falling.
Ironically both airports are in the "wrong" place. Bristol's down a country road south west of the city (ie the wrong side for anyone from the Midlands), and Cardiff stuck out on the coast down an even smaller country lane the wrong side of Cardiff from the valleys or the Midlands.
Amazingly Cardiff has no rail link even though the train goes to only Barry five miles away.
So there we have it a tip top, super long runway, sat doing bugger all, because there are no transport links and it's in the wrong place in the first place.
P.S. "This, of course, does not compute with the left", are you suggesting that I am of the left? You wouldn't be the first, SeanT once accused me of being some sort of Neo-Marxist. Yet only a week or two ago, I was by another denizen of this site put in the extreme right wing camp.
When the going gets tough, the left start going!
P.S. Lucky that US video on wealth distribution was public domain as The Guardian would have had to answer for copyright infringement as well as plagiarism!
What concerns me about this ICM poll is its enormous re-weighting in terms of the social scale.
In its raw unweighted form ABC2 account for 60.0% of the sample and C2DE account for 40.0%.
As re-weighted, this ratios is turned on its head with ABC2 accounting for 43.5% and C2DE 56.5%.
I understand the need to re-weight a sample but the adjustment in this case appears to be extreme.