The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
It must really sting the poverty pimps that the UK economy is flourishing.
Harry, A pound will be a pound regardless. It will be little different, ignorant people in london who refuse Scottish notes at present will continue to do so , the rest will continue as is.
PS. I note that may be a prediction of what is to come with A Scottish pound being worth a little more than the rump UK version, who knows.
Could be worth a touch more, Scottish GDP is a touch higher than UK at the moment and with instability in the middle east, deepish oil fields will be economic to pump with the highish oil price at the moment (Taking away a medium term concern). However I can't see Scottish exporters wanting to suffer with too strong a Sc£ so Salmond will probably peg it.
Long term the North Sea simply running out could be an issue however. But that term is not known.
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
It must really sting the poverty pimps that the UK economy is flourishing.
Must really sting the working people that according to the Tories they are all feeling better off now the economy is "flourishing"
To be fair, the ratings agencies reckon that fuel prices will remain static to the end of the decade. The energy companies have a different view of course, but they can be ignored.
You mean working people will have to see services cut, claim handouts from the government, and be unable to buy houses, but will instead pay higher rents for short term lets? The utter shame! send me a Conservative Party application at once.
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
If Labour were more like the party Jon Cruddas wants I'd probably still vote for them. But the Blairite modernisers care as much about the wwc as Cameron and Osborne do about true conservatives.. Hence a large amount from both sets of old school supporters go to Ukip
Labour and Conservatives have been seduced by the mistress of the middle ground, thinking no one would fancy their old dependable wives, but Ukip have seduced them.. The old labour and con bottles are the Shirley Valentines of modern politics!
Of course they do Harry. Now go and drink your bucks fizz and have some smoked salmon while you await your morning sherry. You know how grumpy lack of alchohol makes you?
If Labour were more like the party Jon Cruddas wants I'd probably still vote for them. But the Blairite modernisers care as much about the wwc as Cameron and Osborne do about true conservatives.. Hence a large amount from both sets of old school supporters go to Ukip
Labour and Conservatives have been seduced by the mistress of the middle ground, thinking no one would fancy their old dependable wives, but Ukip have seduced them.. The old labour and con bottles are the Shirley Valentines of modern politics!
You mean working people will have to see services cut, claim handouts from the government, and be unable to buy houses, but will instead pay higher rents for short term lets?
Certainly services will be cut more under a Miliband government than they would be under a Conservative government, that is obvious. Not only will borrowing costs be higher, but tax revenues will be lower as growth falters and business goes elsewhere. Perhaps even more importantly, with a restricted budget, the Labour hatred of anything resembling increased efficiency in the delivery of public services, and the fact that they are the party of producer interests, can only mean reduced services. How could it be different?
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
Harry, If you think people go begging to foodbanks so they can hoard their cash you are seriously deluded. Most of it is down to benefits being stopped and people left with no options. As ever Tories are happy to let of people robbing millions but hound those who get the minimum amount. Fact that a few people may be at it does not excuse the disgrace that in such a rich country we have such poverty. Bottom of every league table apart from the Fat Cat one is no great achievement.
Sorry Cant seem to manage a simple post now with quote facility.
In reply to TGOHF I meant to say that I thought next years election was on 7/5/15 can anyone confirm? If so that is 308 days to go?
Am happy to give you a further week off if it helps you sleep
TNS 29/8 was 39 - 28 - 11 -13 : 11 point gap. So 9 point swing since then
Sorry I dont know what you are getting at apologies if i am being thick but 308 days ago from today would be 29/8/13 You Gov 29/8/13 was CON 33 LAB 37 LD 10 4% Lab lead. Last 2 YG had Lab leads of 5 and 2. Average YG lead for whole of June 2014 was 4% So i cant see this 9% swing you refer to.
In fact i cant see much if any swingback at all
Is it wishful thinking on your part
Well there you go- based on today unscientific snapshot Ed is nailed on - will watch with interest over the next 308 days.
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
How has austerity affected the top percentile Richard? It would be nice to hear from the "other side" occasionally, all we get are figures that show you getting massively richer, while those at the bottom get poorer. This can not be true, the Conservatives love the poor, and we are all in it together?
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
Harry, If you think people go begging to foodbanks so they can hoard their cash you are seriously deluded. Most of it is down to benefits being stopped and people left with no options. As ever Tories are happy to let of people robbing millions but hound those who get the minimum amount. Fact that a few people may be at it does not excuse the disgrace that in such a rich country we have such poverty. Bottom of every league table apart from the Fat Cat one is no great achievement.
My dad is a Labour supporter and a Magistrate and surprised me recently by saying that a lot of people using food banks were drug users, who were getting food for free and then using their money to buy drugs
How has austerity affected the top percentile Richard? It would be nice to hear from the "other side" occasionally, all we get are figures that show you getting massively richer, while those at the bottom get poorer. This can not be true, the Conservatives love the poor, and we are all in it together?
The top % are paying more in tax - which is nice of them.
What they actually are left with doesn't make the poor any better off.
You mean working people will have to see services cut, claim handouts from the government, and be unable to buy houses, but will instead pay higher rents for short term lets?
Certainly services will be cut more under a Miliband government than they would be under a Conservative government, that is obvious. Not only will borrowing costs be higher, but tax revenues will be lower as growth falters and business goes elsewhere. Perhaps even more importantly, with a restricted budget, the Labour hatred of anything resembling increased efficiency in the delivery of public services, and the fact that they are the party of producer interests, can only mean reduced services. How could it be different?
Less foodbanks more equitable society though
Whats the point of a booming economy if the top 10% take 110% of the benefit leaving the remaining 90% arguing over the minus 10%
To be fair, the ratings agencies reckon that fuel prices will remain static to the end of the decade. The energy companies have a different view of course, but they can be ignored.
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
Harry, If you think people go begging to foodbanks so they can hoard their cash you are seriously deluded. Most of it is down to benefits being stopped and people left with no options. As ever Tories are happy to let of people robbing millions but hound those who get the minimum amount. Fact that a few people may be at it does not excuse the disgrace that in such a rich country we have such poverty. Bottom of every league table apart from the Fat Cat one is no great achievement.
Food banks must do a roaring trade in Scotland. We know how reluctant you North Britons are to strain short arms, reaching into deep pockets for moth filled wallets.
You mean working people will have to see services cut, claim handouts from the government, and be unable to buy houses, but will instead pay higher rents for short term lets?
Certainly services will be cut more under a Miliband government than they would be under a Conservative government, that is obvious. Not only will borrowing costs be higher, but tax revenues will be lower as growth falters and business goes elsewhere. Perhaps even more importantly, with a restricted budget, the Labour hatred of anything resembling increased efficiency in the delivery of public services, and the fact that they are the party of producer interests, can only mean reduced services. How could it be different?
Less foodbanks more equitable society though
Whats the point of a booming economy if the top 10% take 110% of the benefit leaving the remaining 90% arguing over the minus 10%
Hasn't the ONS just released some stats showing income inequality narrowing over the last few years?
Just to add to Mr LP's earlier (excellent) comments, it's worth pointing out that:
France remains mired in recession, with a PMI of 48...
...while Ireland, Italy, Spain and Germany seem to be recovering nicely, with the former having a PMI of 62, and the latter three all being around the 54-55 levels. In the case of Ireland, that equates to GDP growth for this year north of 4%, and for the others it suggests the recovery continues.
@JonathanD Undoubtedly. I was just a little concerned that with the high pound, lack of productivity will not be helpful to our export/import balance. Still who cares? As long as we can borrow, rising house prices, underemployment, and substituting cheap labour in place of "tech" investment is the way to go. I am only surprised that such a plan hasn't been tried before.
Smarmy
Do you have a link to the BBC article upon which you base these false assumptions?
If people and Labour are going to attack foodbanks as a symptom of poverty why do they not do the same for general benefits ? Its a myth that incme inequality has risen under the tories ,its the opposite actually. Labour seem to have lost sense of reality and relying on emotional rubbish
Sorry Cant seem to manage a simple post now with quote facility.
In reply to TGOHF I meant to say that I thought next years election was on 7/5/15 can anyone confirm? If so that is 308 days to go?
Am happy to give you a further week off if it helps you sleep
TNS 29/8 was 39 - 28 - 11 -13 : 11 point gap. So 9 point swing since then
Sorry I dont know what you are getting at apologies if i am being thick but 308 days ago from today would be 29/8/13 You Gov 29/8/13 was CON 33 LAB 37 LD 10 4% Lab lead. Last 2 YG had Lab leads of 5 and 2. Average YG lead for whole of June 2014 was 4% So i cant see this 9% swing you refer to.
In fact i cant see much if any swingback at all
Is it wishful thinking on your part
Well there you go- based on today unscientific snapshot Ed is nailed on - will watch with interest over the next 308 days.
Not nailed on but thanks I can sleep now.
Your 9% swingback nearly had me reaching for the Razor Blades.
Were all Ed is crap is PMers now.
Now look what youve made me do dont usually use that word after Razor as an Owl
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
How has austerity affected the top percentile Richard? It would be nice to hear from the "other side" occasionally, all we get are figures that show you getting massively richer, while those at the bottom get poorer. This can not be true, the Conservatives love the poor, and we are all in it together?
The gap between rich and poor grew more under the previous Labour government.
If Labour were more like the party Jon Cruddas wants I'd probably still vote for them. But the Blairite modernisers care as much about the wwc as Cameron and Osborne do about true conservatives.. Hence a large amount from both sets of old school supporters go to Ukip
Labour and Conservatives have been seduced by the mistress of the middle ground, thinking no one would fancy their old dependable wives, but Ukip have seduced them.. The old labour and con bottles are the Shirley Valentines of modern politics!
A prime candidate for Pseuds Corner...!
I think it was a quote from an Enoch speech.
I expect Sam to provide the full transcript shortly.
Just to add to Mr LP's earlier (excellent) comments, it's worth pointing out that:
France remains mired in recession, with a PMI of 48...
...while Ireland, Italy, Spain and Germany seem to be recovering nicely, with the former having a PMI of 62, and the latter three all being around the 54-55 levels. In the case of Ireland, that equates to GDP growth for this year north of 4%, and for the others it suggests the recovery continues.
If I recall correctly, Ireland made some severe public sector cuts - to jobs, salaries and pensions. A lesson for the UK - our council has just cut its gritting services for next winter in a hilly area whilst awarding its senior managers a significant pay rise.
How has austerity affected the top percentile Richard? It would be nice to hear from the "other side" occasionally, all we get are figures that show you getting massively richer, while those at the bottom get poorer. This can not be true, the Conservatives love the poor, and we are all in it together?
"Austerity", combined with ultra low interest rates (and an influx of foreign money), has led to massive house price inflation at the high end. This has meant that the "1%" have seen their paper wealth rise rapidly.
That being said, that same 1% are still losing their jobs and/or being paid less. Barclays is scaling back its investment banking ambitions. We continue to see job losses at large investment banks. And while people pop up at smaller 'boutique' firms, they are usually on one-fifth the income (if they earn anything at all) they were on when they were at Goldman or the like.
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
Harry, If you think people go begging to foodbanks so they can hoard their cash you are seriously deluded. Most of it is down to benefits being stopped and people left with no options. As ever Tories are happy to let of people robbing millions but hound those who get the minimum amount. Fact that a few people may be at it does not excuse the disgrace that in such a rich country we have such poverty. Bottom of every league table apart from the Fat Cat one is no great achievement.
My dad is a Labour supporter and a Magistrate and surprised me recently by saying that a lot of people using food banks were drug users, who were getting food for free and then using their money to buy drugs
In Scotland at least the Labour party are harsher on the poor using foodbanks than even the Tories so I am not surprised by that. Labour's only plan at present is to be more Tory than the Tories.
Just to add to Mr LP's earlier (excellent) comments, it's worth pointing out that:
France remains mired in recession, with a PMI of 48...
...while Ireland, Italy, Spain and Germany seem to be recovering nicely, with the former having a PMI of 62, and the latter three all being around the 54-55 levels. In the case of Ireland, that equates to GDP growth for this year north of 4%, and for the others it suggests the recovery continues.
If I recall correctly, Ireland made some severe public sector cuts - to jobs, salaries and pensions. A lesson for the UK - our council has just cut its gritting services for next winter in a hilly area whilst awarding its senior managers a significant pay rise.
As in Ireland, so in Portugal and Spain. There were across the board public sector wage cuts in both those countries.
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
@MonikerDiCanio The use of foodbanks is falling? That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
People using foodbanks allows them to have extra cash for other spending - it's the ultimate mash up of collectivism, the big society and Keynesism - lefties should love it.
Harry, If you think people go begging to foodbanks so they can hoard their cash you are seriously deluded. Most of it is down to benefits being stopped and people left with no options. As ever Tories are happy to let of people robbing millions but hound those who get the minimum amount. Fact that a few people may be at it does not excuse the disgrace that in such a rich country we have such poverty. Bottom of every league table apart from the Fat Cat one is no great achievement.
Food banks must do a roaring trade in Scotland. We know how reluctant you North Britons are to strain short arms, reaching into deep pockets for moth filled wallets.
If people and Labour are going to attack foodbanks as a symptom of poverty why do they not do the same for general benefits ? Its a myth that incme inequality has risen under the tories ,its the opposite actually. Labour seem to have lost sense of reality and relying on emotional rubbish
Link please showing that income inequality has diminished since 2010.
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
What happened to Salmond's guarantee of future orders from the MOD?
How has austerity affected the top percentile Richard? It would be nice to hear from the "other side" occasionally, all we get are figures that show you getting massively richer, while those at the bottom get poorer. This can not be true, the Conservatives love the poor, and we are all in it together?
The top percentile are rich, Smarmeron. That means they are insulated from difficulties which most people encounter. They don't rely much on public services and, by definition, they have their own resources. So saying they haven't been affected much by austerity is a completely pointless statement. No-one ever claimed the rich are affected as badly as the middle and the poor.
Of course, Osborne has done an excellent job in increasing the tax take from the rich without scaring them away, and he's also done an excellent job in reducing the wasteful welfare payments to them, most notably Child Benefit. There's more to be done, of course, but the direction is absolutely right. Meanwhile he has done a lot to reduce inequality and, most importantly of all, to improve incentives to work. The employment and growth figures speak for themselves.
Over to you, now: how is the alternative, Miliband-style, strategy working out in France for those at the bottom?
Mr. M, don't worry, practice for Silverstone starts tomorrow, then we have qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday. Huzzah!
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, to whom would they lose them? Blues remain 'toxic', Lib Dems are contaminated by association and Miliband isn't exactly popular either. The SNP may lose a seat or two but I don't think they'll collapse.
In the six Westminster seats the SNP hold, the Conservatives are in second place in 4 of them, and in the other 2, Labour are second.
So if the SNP do suffer some referendum blues, the Tories would be the biggest beneficiaries.
And across Scotland in 2010, the Toxic Blues polled only 3.2% behind the SNP.
LOL, now we are in to the world of fantasy. No matter what happens you will not see Tories going anywhere.
I'm not saying Con gain Banff and Buchan.
See my post at 9.04am
Only I am saying Con gain Bed and Breakfast, and I stand by it. Trending away from the SNP now wee Eck has left the seat. It's my shock of the night outside bet. SNP will gain elsewhere, but it's Blue heaven from Banff to the 'Deen. You heard it here first! And last!
It did in fact look remarkable static, but that is because the figures were conveniently calculated before George got down to serious business, and the new ones have not been published. This allows Cameron and his pangyrists the opportunity to state "facts" that bear no relationship to the present. (Government is choosing your "mistruths" carefully)
It is probably beyond the wit of any governing party to reduce the gap in wealth between rich and poor, or even reduce the rate at which that gap is increasing.
A more pertinent question might be this: if labour is either replaced by capital or outsourced to Africa and Asia, what benefit does representative democracy provide the super-rich? Over the next few decades I expect them to use terrorism as an excuse for replacing it with some oligarchic model or other.
If Labour were more like the party Jon Cruddas wants I'd probably still vote for them. But the Blairite modernisers care as much about the wwc as Cameron and Osborne do about true conservatives.. Hence a large amount from both sets of old school supporters go to Ukip
Labour and Conservatives have been seduced by the mistress of the middle ground, thinking no one would fancy their old dependable wives, but Ukip have seduced them.. The old labour and con bottles are the Shirley Valentines of modern politics!
A prime candidate for Pseuds Corner...!
I think it was a quote from an Enoch speech.
I expect Sam to provide the full transcript shortly.
Too often today people are ready to tell us: ‘This is not possible, that is not possible.’ I say: whatever the true interest of our country calls for is always possible. We have nothing to fear but our own doubts. (Enoch Powell, Conservative Party conference, 1968)
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
HMS Thatcher ?
An utterly appropriate name.
In eleven years the left never managed to land one on Maggie.
First, in absolute terms, the top 10% will pay far more in tax than the bottom 10%.
Second, the bottom 10% will get far back, as beneficiaries of public spending, than the top 10% do. Not that there's anything wrong about that. The top 10% need much less public spending than the bottom 10% do.
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
It is probably beyond the wit of any governing party to reduce the gap in wealth between rich and poor, or even reduce the rate at which that gap is increasing.
A more pertinent question might be this: if labour is either replaced by capital or outsourced to Africa and Asia, what benefit does representative democracy provide the super-rich? Over the next few decades I expect them to use terrorism as an excuse for replacing it with some oligarchic model or other.
Do you think we have representative democracy now? How can we when a party can get its leader elected to be de facto dictator for five years with only about 35% of the vote? Even then its only a small percentage of votes that actually matter Then there is the problem that a very small number of people controlling large sums of money who can buy influence and policies. Honestly, what sort of democracy is that?
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
What happened to Salmond's guarantee of future orders from the MOD?
If Westminster cannot afford boys toys there are no orders. In 1979 they said 30,000 shipbuilding jobs would go if we voted Yes. They say now the last 3000 will go if we vote Yes, do you think many believe they will be there long enough to go.
@Sean_F How have your top 10% fared since the crisis hit? I thought we had a few on this board, but the silence is making me think otherwise. Perhaps they are not rich, but merely fantasizing? It would explain a lot.
First, in absolute terms, the top 10% will pay far more in tax than the bottom 10%.
Second, the bottom 10% will get far back, as beneficiaries of public spending, than the top 10% do. Not that there's anything wrong about that. The top 10% need much less public spending than the bottom 10% do.
We can take it from that synopsis that you are comfortable in the top 10% then and don't give a hoot for the bottom 10%.
Labour have gained Skipton West, from the Lib Dems, on 24% of the vote, in a six-way contest. This is Labour's first win on Craven District Council since 1996.
In the County Council Division which covers the same ward, an Independent gained from the Liberal Democrats
First, in absolute terms, the top 10% will pay far more in tax than the bottom 10%.
Second, the bottom 10% will get far back, as beneficiaries of public spending, than the top 10% do. Not that there's anything wrong about that. The top 10% need much less public spending than the bottom 10% do.
Not sure about that. There is a level of inter-dependence across all wage and income groups which means that we are all affected directly or indirectly by all public spending. No-one exists in a vacuum. Wealthy people will often need to be looked after when they are old. The carers that do that may well need the state help that the wealthy pensioners have helped to fund. Without it they may not be able to do the caring. And so on.
Mr. M, don't worry, practice for Silverstone starts tomorrow, then we have qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday. Huzzah!
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, to whom would they lose them? Blues remain 'toxic', Lib Dems are contaminated by association and Miliband isn't exactly popular either. The SNP may lose a seat or two but I don't think they'll collapse.
In the six Westminster seats the SNP hold, the Conservatives are in second place in 4 of them, and in the other 2, Labour are second.
So if the SNP do suffer some referendum blues, the Tories would be the biggest beneficiaries.
And across Scotland in 2010, the Toxic Blues polled only 3.2% behind the SNP.
LOL, now we are in to the world of fantasy. No matter what happens you will not see Tories going anywhere.
I'm not saying Con gain Banff and Buchan.
See my post at 9.04am
Only I am saying Con gain Bed and Breakfast, and I stand by it. Trending away from the SNP now wee Eck has left the seat. It's my shock of the night outside bet. SNP will gain elsewhere, but it's Blue heaven from Banff to the 'Deen. You heard it here first! And last!
It is probably beyond the wit of any governing party to reduce the gap in wealth between rich and poor, or even reduce the rate at which that gap is increasing.
A more pertinent question might be this: if labour is either replaced by capital or outsourced to Africa and Asia, what benefit does representative democracy provide the super-rich? Over the next few decades I expect them to use terrorism as an excuse for replacing it with some oligarchic model or other.
Do you think we have representative democracy now? How can we when a party can get its leader elected to be de facto dictator for five years with only about 35% of the vote? Even then its only a small percentage of votes that actually matter Then there is the problem that a very small number of people controlling large sums of money who can buy influence and policies. Honestly, what sort of democracy is that?
When you say a small number of people, I presume you're talking about the leaders of the unions, who seem to have so much influence over the Labour Party. Or perhaps Stuart Wheeler, who has dominated UKIP donations. Or Paul Marshall, who lives to bankroll the LibDems...
The fact is that political parties are expensive things to run, and £10 here and £25 there pays for very little.
We are incredibly fortunate that our democracy does not look like the US where the sums involved are 100x the levels of the UK.
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
HMS Thatcher ?
An utterly appropriate name.
In eleven years the left never managed to land one on Maggie.
No need when the Tory party was packed with back stabbers
You forgot to quote the most interesting bit: the bio of the third short-listed candidate, Cllr Mackinlay.
Cllr [Craig] Mackinlay is a Chartered Accountant, and stood in 2012 as the Conservative candidate to be Kent’s Police and Crime Commissioner – an election in which he was sadly defeated. A Medway District Councillor, he also has the unusual distinction of being a former leader of UKIP – he led the party briefly in 1997, then served as its Deputy Leader from 1997-2000, before leaving to join the Conservatives in 2005.
A former kipper in the constituency which is favourite to be blessed by College's candidacy.
Goodness knows what secrets will be revealed in the course of the campaign. A chartered accountant with connections to the police too. I hope he didn't specialise in off-shore funds.
Mr. M, don't worry, practice for Silverstone starts tomorrow, then we have qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday. Huzzah!
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, to whom would they lose them? Blues remain 'toxic', Lib Dems are contaminated by association and Miliband isn't exactly popular either. The SNP may lose a seat or two but I don't think they'll collapse.
In the six Westminster seats the SNP hold, the Conservatives are in second place in 4 of them, and in the other 2, Labour are second.
So if the SNP do suffer some referendum blues, the Tories would be the biggest beneficiaries.
And across Scotland in 2010, the Toxic Blues polled only 3.2% behind the SNP.
LOL, now we are in to the world of fantasy. No matter what happens you will not see Tories going anywhere.
I'm not saying Con gain Banff and Buchan.
See my post at 9.04am
Only I am saying Con gain Bed and Breakfast, and I stand by it. Trending away from the SNP now wee Eck has left the seat. It's my shock of the night outside bet. SNP will gain elsewhere, but it's Blue heaven from Banff to the 'Deen. You heard it here first! And last!
Woolie , have you been cleaning the pipes
I'm drunk on the Tory surge in Fraserburgh, Malcolm. B and B is coming home to the blues, I'm convinced of it. On the other hand, I have Norman Lamb losing Norfolk North by 2000 votes so I do like my long shots ;-)
First, in absolute terms, the top 10% will pay far more in tax than the bottom 10%.
Second, the bottom 10% will get far back, as beneficiaries of public spending, than the top 10% do. Not that there's anything wrong about that. The top 10% need much less public spending than the bottom 10% do.
Not sure about that. There is a level of inter-dependence across all wage and income groups which means that we are all affected directly or indirectly by all public spending. No-one exists in a vacuum. Wealthy people will often need to be looked after when they are old. The carers that do that may well need the state help that the wealthy pensioners have helped to fund. Without it they may not be able to do the caring. And so on.
@Sean_F How have your top 10% fared since the crisis hit? I thought we had a few on this board, but the silence is making me think otherwise. Perhaps they are not rich, but merely fantasizing? It would explain a lot.
Duncan Weldon has posted a ONS graph on twitter showing that between 2009-2011 the poorest 10% saw the largest fall in real earnings (with the richest doing the best) while between 2011-2013 the poorest 10% did the best while the richest 10% lost the most.
@rcs1000 I think the fact that only a percentage of voters in the marginals really make the difference in the outcome is the main point, alternatives have been "done to death" on here. TSE could of course be encouraged to open another thread on the subject, with almost no prompting, should you wish?
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
What happened to Salmond's guarantee of future orders from the MOD?
If Westminster cannot afford boys toys there are no orders. In 1979 they said 30,000 shipbuilding jobs would go if we voted Yes. They say now the last 3000 will go if we vote Yes, do you think many believe they will be there long enough to go.
What I like about your position, Mr. G., is that you don't give a toss for the economic or social effect that independence might bring in the short term. It is the fact of independence that matters, that the Scots will be making their own decisions about their own lives. In this day and age when politics is reduced to arguing about a percentage point here or there or some economic figure that virtually nobody understands, it is good to see someone arguing for the big matters.
In all seriousness re B and B 10% swing to the Blues in 2010 with Salmond vacating, a no vote might just generate the 5% swing needed for it to fall. On a very good night. I stand ready to lose cash and be mocked.
@Sean_F How have your top 10% fared since the crisis hit? I thought we had a few on this board, but the silence is making me think otherwise. Perhaps they are not rich, but merely fantasizing? It would explain a lot.
Their fortunes have varied. Falling into the top 10% does not make you very rich, by any means.
I would come into the top 10%. The period 2008/09 was very tough for me. Things have got better since then.
Narrowing the gap between rich and poor shouldn't be an aim of any government.
Ensuring a humane level of financial support for those out of work should be the aim.
So what is the Tories excuse then. They are tough on the minnows at the bottom , but extremely lenient with the fat cats at the top end.
"lenient " - suggests a crime has been committed for which they should be punished ?
The crime of being rich. All their money should be handed to the poor and middle classes, and they should be made to work in Aldi for luncheon vouchers
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
It is impacting on the polls.
Unless i am misreading the polls none are showing a Tory majority. None are showing Tories most seats. All are showing Ed is crap is PM.
The average LAB lead has edged up in past 8 weeks.
@Sean_F How have your top 10% fared since the crisis hit? I thought we had a few on this board, but the silence is making me think otherwise. Perhaps they are not rich, but merely fantasizing? It would explain a lot.
There has never been a better time to be in the top 10%. Property prices are soaring as interest rates remain historically low; there have been tax cuts - not only to the 50 pence rate, but also on dividend payments; stock markets have been booming.
I dont know if it's been mentioned (or reported anywhere) but Natalie Bennett is the only candidate for the Green Party (E+W) leadership election this summer and so is a raging certainty to be re-elected. It's unlikely there will be any markets on it...
Narrowing the gap between rich and poor shouldn't be an aim of any government.
Ensuring a humane level of financial support for those out of work should be the aim.
So what is the Tories excuse then. They are tough on the minnows at the bottom , but extremely lenient with the fat cats at the top end.
"lenient " - suggests a crime has been committed for which they should be punished ?
The crime of being rich. All their money should be handed to the poor and middle classes, and they should be made to work in Aldi for luncheon vouchers
That seems to be the mentality. Take away their money whether it benefits the poorest or not. Chilling .
Narrowing the gap between rich and poor shouldn't be an aim of any government.
Ensuring a humane level of financial support for those out of work should be the aim.
So what is the Tories excuse then. They are tough on the minnows at the bottom , but extremely lenient with the fat cats at the top end.
"lenient " - suggests a crime has been committed for which they should be punished ?
The crime of being rich. All their money should be handed to the poor and middle classes, and they should be made to work in Aldi for luncheon vouchers
I once knew a North American manager who said that if all the money was shared out equally between all citizens, within two years it would be back in the original hands!
I dont know if it's been mentioned (or reported anywhere) but Natalie Bennett is the only candidate for the Green Party (E+W) leadership election this summer and so is a raging certainty to be re-elected. It's unlikely there will be any markets on it...
She's done such a fantastic job, and built up such a great public profile...
Mr. Llama, not sure you can consider Cameron (particularly given he's in coalition) as a de facto dictator.
Incidentally, hope my jesting on age matters last night wasn't considered boorish, 'twas not my intent.
Mr. Dancer, I was actually thinking of the Labour Party, who it would seem can get a working majority of 35% of the vote and so have their man the de facto elected dictator. The comment about a small number of people being able to buy policies applies to both main parties, of course.
As for last night's banter, it was as far as I am concerned just that. I never for one moment thought you were serious and I hope you didn't think I was.
I see the first aircraft carrier will be named by the Queen tomorrow. Workers will be receiving their union benefit P45 soon no doubt. It is nice to see that they are having to use a 1950's Sea Vixen to do the flyover as it is the only carrier fighter they have left. One wonders what they will use the majestic floating hulk for.
What happened to Salmond's guarantee of future orders from the MOD?
If Westminster cannot afford boys toys there are no orders. In 1979 they said 30,000 shipbuilding jobs would go if we voted Yes. They say now the last 3000 will go if we vote Yes, do you think many believe they will be there long enough to go.
It is the fact of independence that matters, that the Scots will be making their own decisions about their own lives.
And throwing themselves whole heartedly into the European project at the earliest opportunity, should the Spanish let them.
I dont know if it's been mentioned (or reported anywhere) but Natalie Bennett is the only candidate for the Green Party (E+W) leadership election this summer and so is a raging certainty to be re-elected. It's unlikely there will be any markets on it...
She's done such a fantastic job, and built up such a great public profile...
@Sean_F It would appear things for most of your fellow "earners" have indeed got easier. The wealthiest have seen their assets double, and the top earners have seen YoY increases of well over 10%. I dislike statistics as of course their are winners and losers, but we work with what we get given?
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
We are getting to the point that "only" 0.8% growth in Q2 would be something of a disappointment but Markit have overshot a few times recently with their activity levels not being reflected in the official figures and I think they are being a bit cautious.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
It must be both surprising and annoying that this GOOD NEWS is not impacting on the polls.
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
It is impacting on the polls.
Unless i am misreading the polls none are showing a Tory majority. None are showing Tories most seats. All are showing Ed is crap is PM.
The average LAB lead has edged up in past 8 weeks.
Is this the Good News you refer to Sean
OTOH, over the course of the past two years, Labour's lead has drifted down from about 12% to about 3% now; the government's approval rating has gone from -40-45% to -20-25%; approval of the government's handling of the economy has gone from about -30% to almost level-pegging; and the Conservatives have gone from level-pegging with Labour on economic management, to a clear and substantial lead.
@Sean_F How have your top 10% fared since the crisis hit? I thought we had a few on this board, but the silence is making me think otherwise. Perhaps they are not rich, but merely fantasizing? It would explain a lot.
Duncan Weldon has posted a ONS graph on twitter showing that between 2009-2011 the poorest 10% saw the largest fall in real earnings (with the richest doing the best) while between 2011-2013 the poorest 10% did the best while the richest 10% lost the most.
Labour have gained Skipton West, from the Lib Dems, on 24% of the vote, in a six-way contest. This is Labour's first win on Craven District Council since 1996.
In the County Council Division which covers the same ward, an Independent gained from the Liberal Democrats
2013 result:
Conservative Party Candidate Whitaker, Paul Howard 407 20%
Green Green Party Protheroe, Fiona 312 16%
Independent Independent Solloway, Andy 471 24%
Labour Labour Party Candidate Madeley, Peter Geoffery 234 12%
Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat English, Polly 572 29
@Sean_F It would appear things for most of your fellow "earners" have indeed got easier. The wealthiest have seen their assets double, and the top earners have seen YoY increases of well over 10%. I dislike statistics as of course their are winners and losers, but we work with what we get given?
I don't understand the reference to "earners". Most people work hard for their money.
Narrowing the gap between rich and poor shouldn't be an aim of any government.
Ensuring a humane level of financial support for those out of work should be the aim.
So what is the Tories excuse then. They are tough on the minnows at the bottom , but extremely lenient with the fat cats at the top end.
"lenient " - suggests a crime has been committed for which they should be punished ?
The crime of being rich. All their money should be handed to the poor and middle classes, and they should be made to work in Aldi for luncheon vouchers
That seems to be the mentality. Take away their money whether it benefits the poorest or not. Chilling .
Narrowing the gap between rich and poor shouldn't be an aim of any government.
Ensuring a humane level of financial support for those out of work should be the aim.
So what is the Tories excuse then. They are tough on the minnows at the bottom , but extremely lenient with the fat cats at the top end.
"lenient " - suggests a crime has been committed for which they should be punished ?
The crime of being rich. All their money should be handed to the poor and middle classes, and they should be made to work in Aldi for luncheon vouchers
I once knew a North American manager who said that if all the money was shared out equally between all citizens, within two years it would be back in the original hands!
Precisely. Redistribution is a worthless endeavour
I dont know if it's been mentioned (or reported anywhere) but Natalie Bennett is the only candidate for the Green Party (E+W) leadership election this summer and so is a raging certainty to be re-elected. It's unlikely there will be any markets on it...
She's done such a fantastic job, and built up such a great public profile...
It is probably beyond the wit of any governing party to reduce the gap in wealth between rich and poor, or even reduce the rate at which that gap is increasing.
A more pertinent question might be this: if labour is either replaced by capital or outsourced to Africa and Asia, what benefit does representative democracy provide the super-rich? Over the next few decades I expect them to use terrorism as an excuse for replacing it with some oligarchic model or other.
Do you think we have representative democracy now? How can we when a party can get its leader elected to be de facto dictator for five years with only about 35% of the vote? Even then its only a small percentage of votes that actually matter Then there is the problem that a very small number of people controlling large sums of money who can buy influence and policies. Honestly, what sort of democracy is that?
When you say a small number of people, I presume you're talking about the leaders of the unions, who seem to have so much influence over the Labour Party. Or perhaps Stuart Wheeler, who has dominated UKIP donations. Or Paul Marshall, who lives to bankroll the LibDems...
The fact is that political parties are expensive things to run, and £10 here and £25 there pays for very little.
We are incredibly fortunate that our democracy does not look like the US where the sums involved are 100x the levels of the UK.
And what would you suggest as an alternative?
As I have said on here before, my preferred alternative would be a return to a proper monarchy, perhaps of the sort that existed at the time of the first Elizabeth. I am not and never have been a fan of democracy, especially of the pseudo democracy we currently have.
@Sean_F It would appear things for most of your fellow "earners" have indeed got easier. The wealthiest have seen their assets double, and the top earners have seen YoY increases of well over 10%. I dislike statistics as of course their are winners and losers, but we work with what we get given?
I don't understand the reference to "earners". Most people work hard for their money.
Money is only earned if you get it handed out to you in return for votes. All other money is evil money.
First, in absolute terms, the top 10% will pay far more in tax than the bottom 10%.
Second, the bottom 10% will get far back, as beneficiaries of public spending, than the top 10% do. Not that there's anything wrong about that. The top 10% need much less public spending than the bottom 10% do.
"A study by Smith & Williamson, the accountancy firm, for the Institute for Fiscal Studies, showed that until a household earns around £35,000 a year it remains a net drain on the public finances, being an overall "taker" rather than breaking even or being a "giver". Only at that level do the benefits received and the taxes paid cancel each other out."
People in the higher income bracket tend to have an excess of money coming in that can be invested in assets. Those at the bottom do not have this ability, and since assets are rising faster than GDP this increases the "unearned" wealth of those at the top by comparison. You may argue that investment in assets is not "unearned", but it is the commonly used term.
If there was any doubt as to whether the fate of the referendum vote lies in Glasgow & the west, that can be dispelled. Perhaps handing out a few bribes will give Dave the courage to talk to 'ordinary' Scots.
People in the higher income bracket tend to have an excess of money coming in that can be invested in assets. Those at the bottom do not have this ability, and since assets are rising faster than GDP this increases the "unearned" wealth of those at the top by comparison. You may argue that investment in assets is not "unearned", but it is the commonly used term.
"Unearned income" is a silly term. Unless you have had a fortune given to you, of course it's been earned.
Comments
Maybe its because its not impacting on most people who are still suffering pay freezes.
Or perhaps you have a better theory why Ed is crap is still in front in the polls
Plus, getting on the F1 is good for the global image of a country.
Mr. Smarmeron, glad it didn't go ahead. By and large, street races are rubbish.
However I can't see Scottish exporters wanting to suffer with too strong a Sc£ so Salmond will probably peg it.
Long term the North Sea simply running out could be an issue however. But that term is not known.
The use of foodbanks is falling?
That will save government ministers the embarrassment of threatening the Trussel Trust again.
Actually you don't need to imagine - just read about France.
To be fair, the ratings agencies reckon that fuel prices will remain static to the end of the decade. The energy companies have a different view of course, but they can be ignored.
You mean working people will have to see services cut, claim handouts from the government, and be unable to buy houses, but will instead pay higher rents for short term lets?
The utter shame! send me a Conservative Party application at once.
(temporary shortage of toilet paper is forecast)
Its the economy stupid should be good news for the Tories but the share of the boom has been very badly distributed as per DavidL comment earlier
Of course they do Harry. Now go and drink your bucks fizz and have some smoked salmon while you await your morning sherry. You know how grumpy lack of alchohol makes you?
How has austerity affected the top percentile Richard? It would be nice to hear from the "other side" occasionally, all we get are figures that show you getting massively richer, while those at the bottom get poorer.
This can not be true, the Conservatives love the poor, and we are all in it together?
What they actually are left with doesn't make the poor any better off.
Whats the point of a booming economy if the top 10% take 110% of the benefit leaving the remaining 90% arguing over the minus 10%
Please can you give a reference for that statement and define who you mean by energy companies.
France remains mired in recession, with a PMI of 48...
...while Ireland, Italy, Spain and Germany seem to be recovering nicely, with the former having a PMI of 62, and the latter three all being around the 54-55 levels. In the case of Ireland, that equates to GDP growth for this year north of 4%, and for the others it suggests the recovery continues.
Do you have a link to the BBC article upon which you base these false assumptions?
It wasn't Allegra again was it?
Your 9% swingback nearly had me reaching for the Razor Blades.
Were all Ed is crap is PMers now.
Now look what youve made me do dont usually use that word after Razor as an Owl
I expect Sam to provide the full transcript shortly.
That being said, that same 1% are still losing their jobs and/or being paid less. Barclays is scaling back its investment banking ambitions. We continue to see job losses at large investment banks. And while people pop up at smaller 'boutique' firms, they are usually on one-fifth the income (if they earn anything at all) they were on when they were at Goldman or the like.
Yes Harry,
"British public wrongly believe rich pay most in tax, new research shows"
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/16/british-public-wrong-rich-poor-tax-research
Of course, Osborne has done an excellent job in increasing the tax take from the rich without scaring them away, and he's also done an excellent job in reducing the wasteful welfare payments to them, most notably Child Benefit. There's more to be done, of course, but the direction is absolutely right. Meanwhile he has done a lot to reduce inequality and, most importantly of all, to improve incentives to work. The employment and growth figures speak for themselves.
Over to you, now: how is the alternative, Miliband-style, strategy working out in France for those at the bottom?
SNP will gain elsewhere, but it's Blue heaven from Banff to the 'Deen.
You heard it here first! And last!
It did in fact look remarkable static, but that is because the figures were conveniently calculated before George got down to serious business, and the new ones have not been published.
This allows Cameron and his pangyrists the opportunity to state "facts" that bear no relationship to the present.
(Government is choosing your "mistruths" carefully)
A more pertinent question might be this: if labour is either replaced by capital or outsourced to Africa and Asia, what benefit does representative democracy provide the super-rich? Over the next few decades I expect them to use terrorism as an excuse for replacing it with some oligarchic model or other.
(Enoch Powell, Conservative Party conference, 1968)
In eleven years the left never managed to land one on Maggie.
First, in absolute terms, the top 10% will pay far more in tax than the bottom 10%.
Second, the bottom 10% will get far back, as beneficiaries of public spending, than the top 10% do. Not that there's anything wrong about that. The top 10% need much less public spending than the bottom 10% do.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2014/07/south-thanet-selection-shortlist-includes-a-former-leader-of-ukip.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/thanetsouth/
How have your top 10% fared since the crisis hit? I thought we had a few on this board, but the silence is making me think otherwise.
Perhaps they are not rich, but merely fantasizing? It would explain a lot.
Labour have gained Skipton West, from the Lib Dems, on 24% of the vote, in a six-way contest. This is Labour's first win on Craven District Council since 1996.
In the County Council Division which covers the same ward, an Independent gained from the Liberal Democrats
Ensuring a humane level of financial support for those out of work should be the aim.
Bloody hell, we are agreeing again. This has to stop or my communist credentials will be in tatters.
The fact is that political parties are expensive things to run, and £10 here and £25 there pays for very little.
We are incredibly fortunate that our democracy does not look like the US where the sums involved are 100x the levels of the UK.
And what would you suggest as an alternative?
You forgot to quote the most interesting bit: the bio of the third short-listed candidate, Cllr Mackinlay.
Cllr [Craig] Mackinlay is a Chartered Accountant, and stood in 2012 as the Conservative candidate to be Kent’s Police and Crime Commissioner – an election in which he was sadly defeated. A Medway District Councillor, he also has the unusual distinction of being a former leader of UKIP – he led the party briefly in 1997, then served as its Deputy Leader from 1997-2000, before leaving to join the Conservatives in 2005.
A former kipper in the constituency which is favourite to be blessed by College's candidacy.
Goodness knows what secrets will be revealed in the course of the campaign. A chartered accountant with connections to the police too. I hope he didn't specialise in off-shore funds.
B and B is coming home to the blues, I'm convinced of it.
On the other hand, I have Norman Lamb losing Norfolk North by 2000 votes so I do like my long shots ;-)
twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/484620585872670720/photo/1
Incidentally, hope my jesting on age matters last night wasn't considered boorish, 'twas not my intent.
I think the fact that only a percentage of voters in the marginals really make the difference in the outcome is the main point, alternatives have been "done to death" on here.
TSE could of course be encouraged to open another thread on the subject, with almost no prompting, should you wish?
10% swing to the Blues in 2010 with Salmond vacating, a no vote might just generate the 5% swing needed for it to fall. On a very good night. I stand ready to lose cash and be mocked.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28142759
I would come into the top 10%. The period 2008/09 was very tough for me. Things have got better since then.
Yes, nice graph, but as I pointed out downthread, it only works because of the date of the calculations.
All their money should be handed to the poor and middle classes, and they should be made to work in Aldi for luncheon vouchers
The average LAB lead has edged up in past 8 weeks.
Is this the Good News you refer to Sean
As for last night's banter, it was as far as I am concerned just that. I never for one moment thought you were serious and I hope you didn't think I was.
It would appear things for most of your fellow "earners" have indeed got easier.
The wealthiest have seen their assets double, and the top earners have seen YoY increases of well over 10%.
I dislike statistics as of course their are winners and losers, but we work with what we get given?
edit: point being averages can distort
Conservative Party Candidate Whitaker, Paul Howard 407 20%
Green Green Party Protheroe, Fiona 312 16%
Independent Independent Solloway, Andy 471 24%
Labour Labour Party Candidate Madeley, Peter Geoffery 234 12%
Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat English, Polly 572 29
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/skipton-and-ripon/winning-party
Not betting on this but 25-1 on the Lib Dems looks decidedly skinny
July : Ryanair switches flights out of Prestwick
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-28132683
"Budget airline Ryanair has confirmed it is to start flying from Glasgow Airport in October, with the launch of seven routes."
"some destinations, including Dublin, will move from Prestwick to Glasgow."
All other money is evil money.
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/5642/full
People in the higher income bracket tend to have an excess of money coming in that can be invested in assets. Those at the bottom do not have this ability, and since assets are rising faster than GDP this increases the "unearned" wealth of those at the top by comparison.
You may argue that investment in assets is not "unearned", but it is the commonly used term.
The Evening Times @TheEveningTimes 6 mins
BREAKING: Glasgow set for £500m, 28,000 job boost from Cameron | Evening Times http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/u/glasgow-set-for-500m-28000-job-boost-from-cameron.1404383107 … via @TheEveningTimes