Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polli
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day
As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of up to 6% for OUI.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
THE DOG ATE MY HOMEWORK SIR.
But at best it's a bit of a guess
We need some fresh polls
With accurate tolls
So our losses are considerably less.
Hard to try and say whether the Quebec referendum will prove a useful guide. Canada isn't the UK, and Scotland isn't Quebec.
Salmond has simply failed to answer some of the key concerns raised around currency, EU membership, defence, financial services industry, debt, etc and has also tried to drive the indy debate with policy agenda items such as free this or that rather than constitutional arguments.
And when it's NO the debate will be over for a generation (or at least the chance to vote on it) and we'll move on. Devomax will kick in as the debate issue and parties offering more will benefit. The WLQ / English question will also heat up and parties offering EV4EL will benefit.
Millsy pointed out only 51% of Labour supporters think Ed Miliband would be the best PM. I think even more significant going forward is that 8% of Labour supporters say DC and a staggering 38% "don't know". If that is not evidence of soft support I don't know what is.
The 2% who said Nick Clegg clearly need medical help.
In contrast 92% of tories think DC and only 6% don't know. I have reservations about all these personal attacks on Ed but they do seem to be having an effect.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/r635j2ebte/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-020714.pdf
Must give pause to Eck
Misreading a poll
Could put him on the dole
Since EU14, and especially over the last seven polls, the LD 2010 split whilst still being in favour of Labour (about 33 LAB to 29.3 to LD), the LD split to Cons has increased from about 13 to 16. Will this trend continue?
Edit. 38% of Labour's current support of 37% is a full 14 percentage points. If only half of those don't bother to vote Labour they are in serious trouble.
Not easy to call the next election. And first we need to get playing Dragon Age: Inquisition the Scottish referendum out of the way. Obviously a surprise Yes would have a rather dramatic impact.
There was of course the earlier and first Quebec referendum of 1980. Early polls indicated a close contest but gaffes by the YES campaign attacking women supporting NO lead to a comfortable 59.5%/40.5% win for NO on a 85% turnout.
The following HoC research paper on both the 80 and 95 campaigns is a useful resource :
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/RP13-47/the-quebec-referendums
The most interesting thing about this was given how close the result was, that we've not had further plebiscites and that the Quebecian Independence movement has gone backwards.
Iff, Scotland votes no, will we see the same?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1980
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10940839/Labours-much-maligned-leader-has-a-big-decision-to-make.html
The only question mark would be if there was any general dissatisfaction on any DevoMax settlement.
1) SNP's raison d'etre is to separate. If they win another majority in Holyrood (whilst tedious) they could make a legitimate case for another vote.
2) English devolution. Some want to carve up this fine and noble land into shitty regional assemblies, others want the equal of Scotland (a Parliament). Either way changes the constitutional settlement and could lead to further tensions.
3) Direction of travel. All parties seem to want to devolve more power to Scotland. If you keep wandering towards a cliff edge then sooner or later you'll fall off, even if you only take one step a day.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/02/three-dimensional-politics-left-right-axis
It takes a very big tent to accommodate such a disparate bunch. I wonder whether the traditional monolithic parties are going to be able to hold together in the medium term.
On topic: please god no not another independence thread make it stop *whimper*
So here's a question for our Tory Peebie friends. Imagine that after the next election there's a Tory government. Which Party would you like to provide the official opposition?
(a) Labour - we can usually beat them
(b) UKIP - my heart's there already
(c) no opposition at all - my name is John Loony
Wonder if we'll see something similar in 2015.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, to whom would they lose them? Blues remain 'toxic', Lib Dems are contaminated by association and Miliband isn't exactly popular either. The SNP may lose a seat or two but I don't think they'll collapse.
I think he means the most UNITE Labour Party in a generation
So if the SNP do suffer some referendum blues, the Tories would be the biggest beneficiaries.
And across Scotland in 2010, the Toxic Blues polled only 3.2% behind the SNP.
Local authorities do a lot less than they did 50 or even 30 years ago, is it not time for a new round of reform of local government with a view to cutting the number of councils by two-thirds or even more? Oh silly me, councillors supply a pool of activists to knock on doors and provide future MPs, and the rest of us have to pay for the needs of the Parties, don't we?
....
I do hope you're right.
POST OF THE DAY
That may sound unrealistic, but if you told a Roman in the latter years of Marcus Aurelius' reign that the empire would struggle to survive the next century they may well have laughed.
If a Parliament of all Scotland can work then a Parliament for all England is the equivalent body. Nobody carved Scotland into Highlands, Lowlands and Islands, and nor should we carve England up.
Am I just an oddball with this point of view, or is it possible that there could be many non-Scots, both from other parts of the UK, but also from other parts of the EU, who will feel that they shouldn't vote because it would be interfering in another country's choice?
The "don't know/won't say" group are, I am sure, just very uncertain about what might follow independence, and it seems to many of us that neither side is itself clear on the matter. So the maxim "if in doubt, don't" will apply. I think the polls now understate the scale of the rejection on 18th September. I also hope that is the case because if not the SNP will follow the EU example and insist on further votes until the right answer is obtained.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/stephenkb/100278504/in-their-own-ways-both-cameron-and-miliband-are-pursuing-core-vote-strategies/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
See my post at 9.04am
See page 9 http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/ScotPoll_Jun2014_Post-Vote-Weig.pdf
Jacques correctly blamed anti patriotic minorities for voting no for the loss. In highly sectarian Scotland it's a question of how the Irish will vote.
Despite Tory protestations to the contarary
June 30 - July 1 (2013) CON 33 LAB 38 LD 8 LEAD 5
June 30 - July 1 (2014 CON 33 LAB 38 LD 8 LEAD 5
Now that's what I call swingback (cough)
On your other point I have seen many cases of English born people who plan to vote YES, again I am not sure where you were born will be the major factor. All the bollocks about being foreigners and splitting families etc is just pathetic.
315 days ago was 22nd August
YG that day : 39 32 11 (LD) 10 ('Kip)
Pop that day 38 30 12 12
Opi that day 36 29 8 18
One could argue Lab are static over that time period I suppose - but the gap isn't.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 16s
EdBalls, 2013: 'stupid' to rule out EU referendum http://polho.me/TQMsI3 . EdBalls, 2014: 'silly' to promise EU ref http://polho.me/1qpFt5
http://www.yourbritain.org.uk/uploads/editor/files/Adonis_Review.pdf
I liked this comment from Martin Lewis in his money saving email this week:
The ISA is dead. Long live the NISA. Yesterday, the 'New Individual Savings
Account' took over. The change? The limit's boosted to £15,000/yr and now all of it can be in a cash NISA, upping the amount saveable tax-free from £5,940.
If you're wondering "why change the name?", my guess is the Govt wanted to take credit by saying "we gave you NISAs", as it sounds far glitzier than "we boosted the ISA limit".
How very true - the Govt's press office were unlikely to overlook this particular gift horse!
When a vote reared its ugly head he bravely turned his tail and fled.
Farage claimed if Labour didn't go for a referendum then UKIP would make Labour its major target at the next election. Could lose Labour some seats.
Nobody in Britain is actually British according to this Kipper.
Nobody gets a passport issued at birth.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrmzxCXCQAAKoX5.jpg:large
Alongside an ongoing surge in construction and the largest quarterly rise in manufacturing
output for 20 years, the services PMI confirms that the economy is firing on all cylinders. We expect the economy to grow by 0.8% again in the second quarter, taking GDP to a new all-time high...
With the survey having seen new record rates of job creation in each of the past three months, unemployment should continue
to plummet in the second quarter from the 6.6% rate seen in the first quarter. A jobless rate below 6% is achievable by the end of the year if anything like the current pace of job creation is sustained in the coming months.”
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/7c9d0c8dec61431eacdd97f3c0575533
Relative flops so far who otherwise might have been in with a shout:
Murray, Gerrard, Farah, Alistair Cook; Jimmy Andersen; Farrell/Halfpenny
Those who could yet win big in their sport this year or have/are achieving or achieved
Lewis Hamilton; Chris Froome; Carl Froch; AP McCoy
Alot will depend on the Commonwealth Games though, if a British 100 metre sprinter manages to win the sprint or some such against the Jamaicans (Unlikely but you never know) then they could be in with a shot.
If one of the cricketers has an outstanding summer against the Indians they could possibly be in with a shout, Jimmy Andersen could be a zero to hero story perhaps ?
It's a difficult one for sure this year.
Are they expecting a large increase in worker productivity to match, Jonathan?
Hmm. If Scotland did become independent I wonder if it'd try to get its own slot on the F1 calendar...
In reply to TGOHF I meant to say that I thought next years election was on 7/5/15 can anyone confirm? If so that is 308 days to go?
He'd have the big mo then.
Who knows.
Most of our previous productivity came from oil+gas extraction and City of London finance jobs and those aren't coming back anytime soon. Still you have to be in a job to get more productive and that's quite apart from the psychological damage that is done by being unemployed so its better than nothing.
The third and, for GDP prospects, the most significant of the three Markit PMIs released this morning. After Manufacturing and Construction comes Services, where every 1% of increase contributes nearly 0.8% of GDP growth. Manufacturing, by comparison, delivers 0.1% of GDP growth for every 1% increase in output.
So the Services PMI needs to perform and it does. Respondents reported a survey record increase in payroll numbers during June together with the sharpest increase in new business for six months. This was the eighteenth month in succession in which new business increased.
Twenty eight percent of respondents reported growth in the month with over 50% forecasting higher growth over the upcoming twelve months.
But all this good news does come with a price. Volumes of work outstanding increased at the strongest rate for four months, with staff shortages beginning to act as a constraint on output and higher average salaries and wage costs as a conseuence. Other input costs (food, insurance, contractor costs) were also reported to be up although firms found it difficult to pass on rises in input cost through output price increases.
So clear signs that the slack in the labour market is tightening with some inflationary consequence. This means more pressure on the Bank of England for an early rate rise.
The UK will either have to import more immigrant workers or start increasing wages. What a dilemma!
As for the headline PMI, it came in at 57.7 well above the 50.0 rate denoting the difference between expansion and contraction.
TNS 29/8 was 39 - 28 - 11 -13 : 11 point gap. So 9 point swing since then
BTW I imagine a future Labour or Labour/LibDem government will restrict NISAs, though. Stash away as much as you can while they are free of such restrictions.
Undoubtedly.
I was just a little concerned that with the high pound, lack of productivity will not be helpful to our export/import balance.
Still who cares? As long as we can borrow, rising house prices, underemployment, and substituting cheap labour in place of "tech" investment is the way to go.
I am only surprised that such a plan hasn't been tried before.
The employment implications of these recent surveys are simply stunning.
I really hope that Osborne is smart enough to use such a buoyant employment market for a further increase in the Minimum wage in his Autumn statement. Good economics and good politics hand in hand in my view.
You might be missing out by not being specific Malc
http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/916253
[Seriously, Azerbaijan is likely to be on the calendar either next year or 2016].
Intrade stopped operating a while back, but it turns out that, contrary to expectations, they haven't actually gone bust. They are now returning client money, so if you have any funds tied up there, you should get them back. However, you must claim by the 31st July:
http://www.intrade.com
PS. I note that may be a prediction of what is to come with A Scottish pound being worth a little more than the rump UK version, who knows.
You Gov 29/8/13 was CON 33 LAB 37 LD 10 4% Lab lead. Last 2 YG had Lab leads of 5 and 2. Average YG lead for whole of June 2014 was 4%
So i cant see this 9% swing you refer to.
In fact i cant see much if any swingback at all
Is it wishful thinking on your part
There was a plan to hold a "street race" Formula 1 event in Cumbernauld, but it would have taken an act of parliament to allow it, let alone the financial side of things.
If Labour were more like the party Jon Cruddas wants I'd probably still vote for them. But the Blairite modernisers care as much about the wwc as Cameron and Osborne do about true conservatives.. Hence a large amount from both sets of old school supporters go to Ukip
John Healey 216
Steve Rotheram 133
Dennis Skinner 121
250 out of 257 Labour MPs voted.
That means that Skinner, a Labour Party institution, was not re-elected to the NEC. One of the most well known members of the party has lost his place on the party’s governing body – and as someone who’s a big fan of Skinner, that’s obviously hugely upsetting.
Soon after the results were confirmed, rumours circulated suggesting that the election had been a plot from the leader’s office to remove Skinner.
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/healey-and-rotherham-elected-to-nec-but-skinner-loses-his-seat/