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  • NextNext Posts: 826

    SeanT said:

    tim said:


    The question is not whether the Osborne bubble can last until the next election, it's how fast does it spread out from London.
    Besides the fact, as Heath says in the piece, that the Tories are screwing the politics,as Major did.

    The big danger politically is that a narrative has developed that Osborne has stoked a mini house price bubble. In reality the effect of his measures has been minimal, but now any reverse in house prices will be blamed on Osborne.
    The effect of his measures has certainly not been minimal. They may be crazy and reckless, but they are not trivial or minimal:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10039583/Help-to-Buy-bubble-could-push-house-prices-up-by-30pc.html

    As I said weeks back, Osborne is already on Plan B - that's B for property Bubble. And it could easily work.
    Nationwide House Price Index: "Price of a typical home declined by 0.1% between March and April"

    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/default.htm
    You missed off the year-on-year increase...

    Price of a typical home declined by 0.1% between March and April, but was 0.9% higher than April 2012
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    POLITICO
    White House releases Benghazi emails - Glenn Thrush
    By Glenn Thrush @GlennThrush
    The White House on Wednesday released what it calls a complete set of emails and documents totaling 100 pages showing the evolution of the administration’s talking points about the Benghazi attack....

    POLITICO ‏@politico
    #Breaking: White House releases Benghazi emails http://politi.co/1023YpI

    Could be very awkward for O and his administration
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,883
    Next said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:


    The question is not whether the Osborne bubble can last until the next election, it's how fast does it spread out from London.
    Besides the fact, as Heath says in the piece, that the Tories are screwing the politics,as Major did.

    The big danger politically is that a narrative has developed that Osborne has stoked a mini house price bubble. In reality the effect of his measures has been minimal, but now any reverse in house prices will be blamed on Osborne.
    The effect of his measures has certainly not been minimal. They may be crazy and reckless, but they are not trivial or minimal:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10039583/Help-to-Buy-bubble-could-push-house-prices-up-by-30pc.html

    As I said weeks back, Osborne is already on Plan B - that's B for property Bubble. And it could easily work.
    Nationwide House Price Index: "Price of a typical home declined by 0.1% between March and April"

    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/default.htm
    You missed off the year-on-year increase...

    Price of a typical home declined by 0.1% between March and April, but was 0.9% higher than April 2012
    So down in real terms...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,883
    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:


    The question is not whether the Osborne bubble can last until the next election, it's how fast does it spread out from London.
    Besides the fact, as Heath says in the piece, that the Tories are screwing the politics,as Major did.

    The big danger politically is that a narrative has developed that Osborne has stoked a mini house price bubble. In reality the effect of his measures has been minimal, but now any reverse in house prices will be blamed on Osborne.
    The effect of his measures has certainly not been minimal. They may be crazy and reckless, but they are not trivial or minimal:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10039583/Help-to-Buy-bubble-could-push-house-prices-up-by-30pc.html

    As I said weeks back, Osborne is already on Plan B - that's B for property Bubble. And it could easily work.
    It's PlanC, plan A got dumped, Plan B was printing and trying to boost business lending, Plan C is a house price bubble.

    The problem is the big stat of the day, pay up by 0.4% pa, inflation 2.8% pa.
    The only people who really suffer from inflation-and-low-pay are the poor. Core Labour voters. Pensioners are protected.

    65% of the country are home-owners, and they are now seeing their biggest asset, by far, increase in value.

    If the trend continues, it might well be enough to grant the Tories an improbable victory in 2015.
    I think you need to look at some house price indexes outside of London.
    Indeed. Bubbles collapse from the fringes towards the epicentre. By giving the market a last gasp kick, Osborne risks creating a real bust.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627
    tim said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 1st poll to ask the actual referendum question in Tory bill - 37% say YES (to stay in), 43% say NO (to leave).

    20% don't knows = No is f*cked

    Not at all. That assumes that the relationship between the EU and the UK will stay the same or improve. If that were the case then I would agree with you. But there is absolutely no chance of that being the case.

    You and I are in agreement already that Cameron's attempts at repatriation will fail.

    At the same time the EU will continue with its bull in a china shop approach, utterly ignoring the sensibilities of the British (and the other countries') public and their concerns whilst pushing ahead with their plans for ever closer union.

    We will see many more headlines like those today about the EU ignoring the wishes of the member states and grabbing more money for themselves. Even now the proposals for direct funding of the EU are in the pipeline and will alienate even more people.

    The mistake is to view the rise of Euroscepticism as somehow the result of what has happened in the UK, of the campaigns by UKIP and people like me. In the end we are actually pretty ineffectual compared to the EU itself in its hugely successful campaign to alienate itself from the British public. the best we can do is make sure the EU idiocy is highlighted to the public at every turn.

    That will not change. The EU is incapable of saving itself as far as improving its image inn the UK is concerned and that is why those numbers are so good for the BOO side.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Off-topic: The Last Of Us has gone gold:
    http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/124050-The-Last-Of-Us-Goes-Gold

    Whilst I can take or leave a zombie apocalypse, I've got to say I'm really looking forward to seeing whether this game lives up to expectations. From the clips I've seen the combat looks visceral in intensity, and the voice-acting sounds excellent. Probably not one for those of a nervous disposition though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,883
    SeanT said:


    But even more important than actual price rises - politically - is the EXPECTATION that house prices will rise.

    I totally agree. This is why Osborne will be crucified when these rises fail to materialise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    F1: rumours gather that in 2015 Honda will return and replace Mercedes as McLaren's engine supplier:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/mclaren/motorsport/story/108144.html

    Interesting news, although to make this year's McLaren competitive they need to have an engine supplied by Scotty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    Off-topic: The Last Of Us has gone gold:
    http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/124050-The-Last-Of-Us-Goes-Gold

    Whilst I can take or leave a zombie apocalypse, I've got to say I'm really looking forward to seeing whether this game lives up to expectations. From the clips I've seen the combat looks visceral in intensity, and the voice-acting sounds excellent. Probably not one for those of a nervous disposition though.

    Sounds promising. I've been mostly playing a bunch of old Infinity Engine RPGs for the first time (Baldur's Gate and the like) lately, so I think I'm right in the mood for an ambitious modern title right about now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237
    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    F1: rumours gather that in 2015 Honda will return and replace Mercedes as McLaren's engine supplier:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/mclaren/motorsport/story/108144.html

    Interesting news, although to make this year's McLaren competitive they need to have an engine supplied by Scotty.

    Scotty has the best lines in the latest Star Trek movie.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, over gay marriage
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    I've not played Baldur's Gate, but classic RPGs can be great fun, and they age pretty well.

    I think the last zombie game I played was Resident Evil 2, which had voice-acting so terrible it was hilarious. Right now I'm mostly played Worms Armageddon.
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 141
    It's obviously catching. Two conservatives in Witney have resigned in the last week to go independent. One had been long rumored to be on his way to UKIP, but has gone indie instead

    John Wheatley
    PB's own correspondent in Cameron-land

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    Currently watching Face/Off on BBC3! Travolta v. Cage
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, on the sci-fi/F1 theme, I had a chat with an insider source whose name I cannot reveal. He did, however, tell me that he found McLaren's lack of downforce disturbing.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunil and mr eagles,which camp would you be in - lol

    Star Wars and Doctor Who fans in clash

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/22546463

    I'm a Trekkie first, A Whovian Second, and BSGer third and a Star Wars fourth.
    Old or new BSGer? And no room for Bablylon5 or Farscape?!

    New BSGer, but I loved the old BSG (except for Boxey and Daggit)

    I love B5 too, but Into the Fire irritated me no end, telling the Shadows to get the hell out of our galaxy, it's like Luke telling the Empire to get the hell out of his galaxy, and them complying.
    What about stargate?! ;)
    SG1 was awesome, some of the spin offs less so.
    I liked Stargate Atlantis. Stargate Universe could of been good, but wasn't.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013

    Mr. Eagles, on the sci-fi/F1 theme, I had a chat with an insider source whose name I cannot reveal. He did, however, tell me that he found McLaren's lack of downforce disturbing.

    Is it down to a lack of differential front end grip?

    Edit: And here's your coat.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    "I am struggling to see how a part of Tower Hamlets that is 38% Bangladeshi, 27% White British and 18% Other White is "completely segregated and ghettoised". Can anyone help?"

    Age distribution. Ghettoisation doesn't happen in one go. Young people and people with young children move out while people whose kids have already left home stay because all their memories are tied up in their home. So most of those white British will be elderly. As they stay indoors most of the time they are mostly invisible. Eventually they'll all die off and that will be that.

    To get a clear picture you'd need to look at the percentages of different groups above and below a certain age.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    I've not played Baldur's Gate, but classic RPGs can be great fun, and they age pretty well.

    That's how those kickstarters for Project Eternity, Wasteland 2 and Torment: Numenera suckered me in, much as I actually like the Bioware 'interactive movie' type RPG a lot as well. Heck, I really enjoyed Dragon Age 2 even.

    Seems like a great time for small to medium game developers right now, so much variety out there, although that may just how it appears from the outside I suppose.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, the front end grip of McLaren is poor. They will never achieve satisfaction until they improve it.

    Mr. Dave, never seen Atlantis, and I'm watching Universe on Pick TV (weekdays at 7pm, SG-1's on at 8pm). Partway into the second season. I like elements of it, and Carlyle's fantastic, but there is much room for improvement. I'll probably write a review on my blog after the season ends.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237
    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Anyway, time for me to go. Night, everyone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013
    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.

    As someone who has long been in favour of gay marriage, I've decided I want a referendum on gay marriage.

    I think those opposed to gay marriage will be surprised by how many people favour gay marriage.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,883
    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.
    "The British people should take part in a referendum over plans for gay marriage, a Tory MP has claimed.

    David Burrowes said there was no mandate for the plan, also known as equal marriage. which he said was a "significant social change that needs to be dealt with properly.""

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22526936
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.
    "The British people should take part in a referendum over plans for gay marriage, a Tory MP has claimed.

    David Burrowes said there was no mandate for the plan, also known as equal marriage. which he said was a "significant social change that needs to be dealt with properly.""

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22526936
    I stand corrected.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    P Diddy reveals he is joining the cast of 'Downton Abbey'

    Read more at http://www.nme.com/news/p-diddy/70323#JR6wXe8RpAgPG0JI.99
  • Robert_EveRobert_Eve Posts: 31
    EU exit here we come!!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 1st poll to ask the actual referendum question in Tory bill - 37% say YES (to stay in), 43% say NO (to leave).

    20% don't knows = No is f*cked

    lol. "F*ked". Are you labouring under the delusion that we are about to have an EU referendum? News alert: we're not. We won't get one before 2017 at the earliest, my guess is that it will probably happen after 2020, by which time we might all have been eaten by alien algae with laser dildos.

    This is probably the most meaningless poll of the decade.
    Right. And we've still got years of economic deterioration in the Eurozone and Cameron's failure to reform the place to come. Possibly the collapse of the US-EU trade deal too.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.

    As someone who has long been in favour of gay marriage, I've decided I want a referendum on gay marriage.

    I think those opposed to gay marriage will be surprised by how many people favour gay marriage.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.
    It would be nice to see the anti-gay dinosaurs crushed by the weight of British public opinion. Personally I have absolutely no doubt it would be a massive vote in favour of equality.

    That said the bad feeling and hurt it would generate would be pretty rotten so I would prefer that this just passes as quickly and simply as possible and we get on with allowing people to live their lives as they see fit.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    MrJones said:

    FPT
    "I am struggling to see how a part of Tower Hamlets that is 38% Bangladeshi, 27% White British and 18% Other White is "completely segregated and ghettoised". Can anyone help?"

    Age distribution. Ghettoisation doesn't happen in one go. Young people and people with young children move out while people whose kids have already left home stay because all their memories are tied up in their home. So most of those white British will be elderly. As they stay indoors most of the time they are mostly invisible. Eventually they'll all die off and that will be that.

    To get a clear picture you'd need to look at the percentages of different groups above and below a certain age.

    Nobody claimed that part of Tower Hamlets was segregated and ghettoised, though it may be. Southam Observer got the wrong end of the stick. That was an example of a ward that was very low in White British terms, when contrasted with a ward that was 92% white British and only 2% Asian.

    It is the borough that is segregated not that ward.


    The main reason fòr the discussion raging was basically I agreed with a point made by Plato, so the fellows that don't like her had to try and prove it factually wrong.

    Southam actually agreed with her, and tim proved my point for me by providing a link to the ONS stats so everyone's. a winner
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    POLITICO
    White House releases Benghazi emails - Glenn Thrush
    By Glenn Thrush @GlennThrush
    The White House on Wednesday released what it calls a complete set of emails and documents totaling 100 pages showing the evolution of the administration’s talking points about the Benghazi attack....

    POLITICO ‏@politico
    #Breaking: White House releases Benghazi emails http://politi.co/1023YpI

    Could be very awkward for O and his administration

    You haven't been following the story very closely. It now looks like the scandal was that ABC based a news story not off the emails themselves, but on a badly summarized account of them from a House Republican staffer.

    It's the Department of Justice stuff that's more troubling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.

    As someone who has long been in favour of gay marriage, I've decided I want a referendum on gay marriage.

    I think those opposed to gay marriage will be surprised by how many people favour gay marriage.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.
    I'm not sure they will be that surprised. I believe it was Martin Vickers in the last debate on the issue who essentially said he would oppose the measure even though he accepted there was probably a majority of the country in favour of it. If one opponent thinks it, ten more probably accept it, and if an opponent voiced that while explaining his opposition, then probably 100 more accept it for each 1 which voiced it.

    Admittedly I have pulled that 'rule' from the aether, but still.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT
    "I am struggling to see how a part of Tower Hamlets that is 38% Bangladeshi, 27% White British and 18% Other White is "completely segregated and ghettoised". Can anyone help?"

    Age distribution. Ghettoisation doesn't happen in one go. Young people and people with young children move out while people whose kids have already left home stay because all their memories are tied up in their home. So most of those white British will be elderly. As they stay indoors most of the time they are mostly invisible. Eventually they'll all die off and that will be that.

    To get a clear picture you'd need to look at the percentages of different groups above and below a certain age.


    most of those white British will be elderly.

    Bet you £500 that they aren't
    Nope. Someone who knows how to mess with the census stats can tell me if "most" is wrong or not but the big muddying factor in ghettoisation is age distribution.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704


    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    So, when's the next Tory rebellion going to crop up from then?

    Next week, two days of gay marriage debates, with a load of red face Tories calling for a referendum on that too.
    That'll be a fun one. One of the biggest arguments before was it was not important enough at such a time to even waste a vote on, but I would not be shocked if some of them did not call for a referendum because actually it is so gosh darn important.

    Actually I would be shocked, because unlike the EU vote, the gay marriage one is one they would not want to risk losing I think.

    As someone who has long been in favour of gay marriage, I've decided I want a referendum on gay marriage.

    I think those opposed to gay marriage will be surprised by how many people favour gay marriage.

    Vox populi, vox Dei.
    It would be nice to see the anti-gay dinosaurs crushed by the weight of British public opinion. Personally I have absolutely no doubt it would be a massive vote in favour of equality.

    That said the bad feeling and hurt it would generate would be pretty rotten so I would prefer that this just passes as quickly and simply as possible and we get on with allowing people to live their lives as they see fit.
    I suspect there are three groups

    1 Strongly Pro - a small but important group
    2 Strongly against - a smaller but loud group
    3 Strongly disinterested who would say live and let live, not vote and continue life as normal/

    Turnout in a referendum on gay marriage would be in the low teens or high teens if really animated debates happen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Mr Tyndall/Mr Kle4

    The recent polling with yougov a few days ago, had support for Gay marriage at 55% and those opposed at 36%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Sunil and mr eagles,which camp would you be in - lol

    Star Wars and Doctor Who fans in clash

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/22546463

    I'm a bit of both a Star Wars and a Star Trek fan, but I was disappointed with the various recent "prequels"! I especially like Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, and The Empire Strikes Back, they are my favourite episodes from each of the "sagas".
    If the JJ Abrams films prove any good, the obvious thing to do is to remake the prequels after Lucas has kicked the bucket...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT
    "I am struggling to see how a part of Tower Hamlets that is 38% Bangladeshi, 27% White British and 18% Other White is "completely segregated and ghettoised". Can anyone help?"

    Age distribution. Ghettoisation doesn't happen in one go. Young people and people with young children move out while people whose kids have already left home stay because all their memories are tied up in their home. So most of those white British will be elderly. As they stay indoors most of the time they are mostly invisible. Eventually they'll all die off and that will be that.

    To get a clear picture you'd need to look at the percentages of different groups above and below a certain age.


    most of those white British will be elderly.

    Bet you £500 that they aren't
    Nope. Someone who knows how to mess with the census stats can tell me if "most" is wrong or not but the big muddying factor in ghettoisation is age distribution.

    The Master Race are always scared of facts.
    No wonder Sayeeda Warsi and Bonnie Greer castrated Nick Griffin so conclusively.
    The way it works is young people and people with young children move out leaving the elderly and those who for some reason can't afford to move. I still think - from personal experience of similar areas - that most of that 27% white British will be elderly but i have no idea how to check.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    Mr Tyndall/Mr Kle4

    The recent polling with yougov a few days ago, had support for Gay marriage at 55% and those opposed at 36%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf

    Excellent news indeed.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 1st poll to ask the actual referendum question in Tory bill - 37% say YES (to stay in), 43% say NO (to leave).

    20% don't knows = No is f*cked

    lol. "F*ked". Are you labouring under the delusion that we are about to have an EU referendum? News alert: we're not. We won't get one before 2017 at the earliest, my guess is that it will probably happen after 2020, by which time we might all have been eaten by alien algae with laser dildos.

    This is probably the most meaningless poll of the decade.
    Right. And we've still got years of economic deterioration in the Eurozone and Cameron's failure to reform the place to come. Possibly the collapse of the US-EU trade deal too.

    I'm prepared to offer a £1,000 bet at evens that the UK will vote to stay in the EU
    You can pick the year, any year.
    Given that I'm already owed money on here from people not honouring their bets, I'm not going to make a bet for something that's a decade away.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627
    kle4 said:

    Mr Tyndall/Mr Kle4

    The recent polling with yougov a few days ago, had support for Gay marriage at 55% and those opposed at 36%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf

    Excellent news indeed.

    I would hope that if it actually ever came to a vote the result would be even more conclusive than that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    kle4 said:

    Mr Tyndall/Mr Kle4

    The recent polling with yougov a few days ago, had support for Gay marriage at 55% and those opposed at 36%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf

    Excellent news indeed.

    I would hope that if it actually ever came to a vote the result would be even more conclusive than that.
    Increasing all the time, I would hope.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Does sam have two different accounts? Why not just have the same details on both devices?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT
    "I am struggling to see how a part of Tower Hamlets that is 38% Bangladeshi, 27% White British and 18% Other White is "completely segregated and ghettoised". Can anyone help?"

    Age distribution. Ghettoisation doesn't happen in one go. Young people and people with young children move out while people whose kids have already left home stay because all their memories are tied up in their home. So most of those white British will be elderly. As they stay indoors most of the time they are mostly invisible. Eventually they'll all die off and that will be that.

    To get a clear picture you'd need to look at the percentages of different groups above and below a certain age.


    most of those white British will be elderly.

    Bet you £500 that they aren't
    Nope. Someone who knows how to mess with the census stats can tell me if "most" is wrong or not but the big muddying factor in ghettoisation is age distribution.

    The Master Race are always scared of facts.
    No wonder Sayeeda Warsi and Bonnie Greer castrated Nick Griffin so conclusively.
    The way it works is young people and people with young children move out leaving the elderly and those who for some reason can't afford to move. I still think - from personal experience of similar areas - that most of that 27% white British will be elderly but i have no idea how to check.

    And young white people moving in as well, as antifrank pointed out.

    It's always disappointing that BNP supporters don't bet, I suspect that they could be the cash cow that out-cash-cowed the Scottish PB Tories

    The important thing for anyone wanting to argue about the demographics of certain areas vis a vis ghettoization is to look at the age distribution.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    @Sam

    At 6.20pm you posted

    The Borough is completely segregated and ghettoised.

    At 11.03 you posted

    Nobody claimed that part of Tower Hamlets was segregated and ghettoised

    You're struggling here.
    Want to carry on?


    Yes. I'll carry on. I'm not struggling one bit.

    I think we may have crossed wires over bad grammar on my part

    I claimed that the borough of Tower Hamlets was segregated and ghettoised.

    'nobody claimed that part of Tower Hamlets was.....'

    There should be a 'particular' between 'that' & 'part'

    To try and cłarify....

    The ward of Banglatown and Spitalfields was not claimed to be segregated

    Southam thought that's what we were arguing over

    The fact, repeat, fact, that there are wards in TH that are 92/2 white Brit/Asian and other that are 27/40 white Brit/Asian is proof the borough is lopsided ethnically

    Individual wards aren't necessarily segregated





  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 1st poll to ask the actual referendum question in Tory bill - 37% say YES (to stay in), 43% say NO (to leave).

    20% don't knows = No is f*cked

    lol. "F*ked". Are you labouring under the delusion that we are about to have an EU referendum? News alert: we're not. We won't get one before 2017 at the earliest, my guess is that it will probably happen after 2020, by which time we might all have been eaten by alien algae with laser dildos.

    This is probably the most meaningless poll of the decade.
    Right. And we've still got years of economic deterioration in the Eurozone and Cameron's failure to reform the place to come. Possibly the collapse of the US-EU trade deal too.

    I'm prepared to offer a £1,000 bet at evens that the UK will vote to stay in the EU
    You can pick the year, any year.
    Given that I'm already owed money on here from people not honouring their bets, I'm not going to make a bet for something that's a decade away.
    Who owes you, Philippe Magnan?

    Yes, on Romney being the GOP nominee.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Socrates said:

    Does sam have two different accounts? Why not just have the same details on both devices?

    I do have two accounts because my original password doesn't work on iPad or iPhone so had to create another
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    Does sam have two different accounts? Why not just have the same details on both devices?

    He's got a black Ipad in his house and the white one ran off to Suffolk.

    Honestly no need to stoop to smears, there's no need

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    I'm prepared to offer a £1,000 bet at evens that the UK will vote to stay in the EU
    You can pick the year, any year.

    I'm already on that one with Richard Tyndall at Evens, so you'd be second in the queue for the payout if he wants to take you up.

    Socrates is fair game, though.

    Edit: Note to Socrates - tim is entirely credit-worthy and reliable.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    tim said:

    @Sam

    At 6.20pm you posted

    The Borough is completely segregated and ghettoised.

    At 11.03 you posted

    Nobody claimed that part of Tower Hamlets was segregated and ghettoised

    You're struggling here.
    Want to carry on?


    Yes. I'll carry on. I'm not struggling one bit.

    I think we may have crossed wires over bad grammar on my part

    I claimed that the borough of Tower Hamlets was segregated and ghettoised.

    'nobody claimed that part of Tower Hamlets was.....'

    There should be a 'particular' between 'that' & 'part'

    To try and cłarify....

    The ward of Banglatown and Spitalfields was not claimed to be segregated

    Southam thought that's what we were arguing over

    The fact, repeat, fact, that there are wards in TH that are 92/2 white Brit/Asian and other that are 27/40 white Brit/Asian is proof the borough is lopsided ethnically

    Individual wards aren't necessarily segregated






    I'd already worked out that Banglatown had more Bangladeshis living in it than Millwall.
    Why start an argument over it then?
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    tim said:

    Socrates said:

    Does sam have two different accounts? Why not just have the same details on both devices?

    He's got a black Ipad in his house and the white one ran off to Suffolk.

    Honestly no need to stoop to smears, there's no need


    White Ipad Flight, it's an issue.
    Although the yuppification of Brick Lane suggests we may be seeing white Ipads moving back.
    Both iPad and iPhone are white dont you worry about that!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    kle4 said:

    I've not played Baldur's Gate, but classic RPGs can be great fun, and they age pretty well.

    That's how those kickstarters for Project Eternity, Wasteland 2 and Torment: Numenera suckered me in, much as I actually like the Bioware 'interactive movie' type RPG a lot as well. Heck, I really enjoyed Dragon Age 2 even.

    Seems like a great time for small to medium game developers right now, so much variety out there, although that may just how it appears from the outside I suppose.
    How do you mean "really enjoyed Dragon Age 2 even"? Dragon Age 2 was wonderful! (Agree with all your other comments)
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    This is interesting (and I think probably sensible):

    People who have been arrested should not normally be named until they are charged, Home Secretary Theresa May has said in a letter to police.
    ...
    But Mrs May adds that "there will be circumstances" when naming a suspect will be in the public interest.

    The home secretary also insists that "there should be no right to anonymity at charge apart from in extremely unusual circumstances".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22548065
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237
    edited May 2013

    kle4 said:

    I've not played Baldur's Gate, but classic RPGs can be great fun, and they age pretty well.

    That's how those kickstarters for Project Eternity, Wasteland 2 and Torment: Numenera suckered me in, much as I actually like the Bioware 'interactive movie' type RPG a lot as well. Heck, I really enjoyed Dragon Age 2 even.

    Seems like a great time for small to medium game developers right now, so much variety out there, although that may just how it appears from the outside I suppose.
    How do you mean "really enjoyed Dragon Age 2 even"? Dragon Age 2 was wonderful! (Agree with all your other comments)
    I only meant it as an acknowledgement that it is not critically well regarded in some respects (I had my doubts about it on first play through) I assure you - I think it was an awesome game, if a bit rushed in the details, and it's story was vastly different to most RPGs and created real attachment to character and setting with it's non-standard flow of time and focus on one major location only. I've played it through 4 times.

    I hope the negative backlash does not make them change course too much for Dragon Age 3.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    SeanT said:

    Apart from everything else, the letter is very badly written. Four paragraphs - IN A ROW - beginning with the word "I"?

    I'm expect tim will tell you it's part of her bid to replace Cameron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,393
    SeanT - Well it is hardly Watergate, and as he does not face re-election and his VP probably won't be a candidate in 2016 will not have much political impact
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    This is interesting (and I think probably sensible):

    People who have been arrested should not normally be named until they are charged, Home Secretary Theresa May has said in a letter to police.
    ...
    But Mrs May adds that "there will be circumstances" when naming a suspect will be in the public interest.

    The home secretary also insists that "there should be no right to anonymity at charge apart from in extremely unusual circumstances".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22548065

    Agree with the first part - it's possible to imagine special circumstances but the default position is that people not charged should not be named. I'd go further myself - there shhould be a compelling reason to name anyone before conviction. If, for instance, it is suspected that members of the public may have important additional evidence or accusations, then OK - but not routinely.

    kle4 - was just teasing, but I liked both Dragon Age and DA 2, as well as the Baldur's Gate series. Partly the memorable characters (still wouldn't mind having a drink with Morrigan...), partly that you didn't have to be a trigger-finger expert to enjoy the plot choices. Here's the latest gen on DA III:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_Age_III:_Inquisition

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237

    This is interesting (and I think probably sensible):

    People who have been arrested should not normally be named until they are charged, Home Secretary Theresa May has said in a letter to police.
    ...
    But Mrs May adds that "there will be circumstances" when naming a suspect will be in the public interest.

    The home secretary also insists that "there should be no right to anonymity at charge apart from in extremely unusual circumstances".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22548065

    Agree with the first part - it's possible to imagine special circumstances but the default position is that people not charged should not be named. I'd go further myself - there shhould be a compelling reason to name anyone before conviction. If, for instance, it is suspected that members of the public may have important additional evidence or accusations, then OK - but not routinely.

    kle4 - was just teasing, but I liked both Dragon Age and DA 2, as well as the Baldur's Gate series. Partly the memorable characters (still wouldn't mind having a drink with Morrigan...), partly that you didn't have to be a trigger-finger expert to enjoy the plot choices. Here's the latest gen on DA III:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_Age_III:_Inquisition

    One reason I actually liked both games is that even on easier settings it was possible to die in normal encounters if you didn't pay attention a little - kept things challenging without being punishing

    Aw, a new protagonist - that kind of makes the framing story device of DA2 pretty pointless then.

    Eh, I'm still onboard - I have to respect a game series where the first game started with your standard fantasy evil end of the world scenario, and still goes on by instead deepening the core conflicts.

    And if it's bad I still have oodles of older games from the Xmas Steam sales to plow through at some point - curse you bundles! Don't you know I have to work for a living. And post about politics.

    Night all.

    I thought the rule was already no naming before charging, and that exceptions were due to leaks making it commonplace knowledge and so not enforcible in some cases. Seems sensible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,393
    edited May 2013
    It was the IRS who were targeting conservative groups seeking not for profit status, not the DNC, and the chief of the IRS has resigned as a consequence and Obama has condemned the IRS for their actions, case closed. The idea that this will have any impact on 2016, and Hillary's steamrollering over GOP candidate Rand Paul's Barry Goldwater tribute act, is wishful thinking of the most improbable part amongst conservatives!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    The most remarkable story coming out of the US right now is what is happening to the public finances. Growth has been positive for quarter after quarter, unemployment is well below its peak, confidence is rising, the deficit is falling. Obama is in the process of being vindicated.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    HIGH-FLYING witches face arrest and a heavy fine if they break new laws, authorities in Swaziland have said.

    Airspace rules in the southern African country have been tightened - and witches who fly above 150 metres face a R500,000 (£35,487) penalty.

    Sabelo Dlamini, an official at the Swazi civil aviation authority said: “A witch on a broomstick should not fly above the [150 metre] limit."

    No charges are planned for airborne witches who keep below the 150-metre 'ceiling'.

    Witches’ broomsticks are deemed similar to any heavier-than-air mode of transport that takes flight.


    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4929057/witches-swaziland-new-flying-rules.html#ixzz2TPCdnKME
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    Other than appointing the guy in charge every four years, here's no contact at all between the IRS and the rest of the executive due to the laws that were brought in after Watergate. There's no connection at all to Obama.

    The Justice Department is the only one of the three supposed scandals that could amount to anything.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Also, regarding 2016, Republicans have based their entire argument against the Democrats on the unsustainable path of government.

    Latest numbers from the CBO:

    http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/05/15/opinion/051513krugman1/051513krugman1-blog480.jpg
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    It was the IRS who were targeting conservative groups seeking not for profit status, not the DNC, and the chief of the IRS has resigned as a consequence and Obama has condemned the IRS for their actions, case closed. The idea that this will have any impact on 2016, and Hillary's steamrollering over GOP candidate Rand Paul's Barry Goldwater tribute act, is wishful thinking of the most improbable part amongst conservatives!

    Americans seldom give the same party three terms in a row, in the same way they seldom give a president just one term. There is a natural pendulum at work.

    Hillary would, also, be a potentially disastrous candidate. The lesbian stuff is bursting for its fifteen minutes of terminal fame.
    It's happened four times since 1900.

    What lesbian stuff?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    tim said:

    @Southam

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/15/us-budget-deficit-austerity-stimulus

    The insanity of the GOP buying into apocalyptic Osborne style hysteria about stimulus failure.
    The deficit will be tumbling by the next election,whereas in Britain we will have failed totally

    If things continue in the same vein Obama may well be judged one of the great American presidents in years to come for how he steered America through a potentially devastating crisis. He must just want to scream out "I told you so".

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SouthamObserver

    'The most remarkable story coming out of the US right now is what is happening to the public finances. Growth has been positive for quarter after quarter, unemployment is well below its peak, confidence is rising, the deficit is falling. Obama is in the process of being vindicated.'

    $16 trillion of debt of which $5 trillion was racked up in the past 3 years,yes truly remarkable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,393
    SeanT- Hillary will win, as Nixon did in 1968, after failing 8 years earlier, she is by far and away the most experienced and competent in either party and she trounces her Democratic primary opponents and all GOP general election rivals in the polls. (The lesbian rumours have been around for years, and I doubt they would do much damage now, in a nation moving towards gay marriage and which tolerated all Bill's shenanigans). The GOP is also in chaos still from 2012 with no credible alternative, and will probably nominate an unelectable fanatic like Paul or Santorum after 2 losing moderates, (Rubio is too lightweight and his immigration views will hit him in the primaries, and Christie is too moderate, in any case Hillary comfortably beats Rubio and Christie too in every poll, albeit by less than Rubio). Of course parties have won the White House more than twice in a row before, the GOP from 1980-1992 and the Dems from 1932-1952 to quote 2 recent examples, and personally I think the US is presently going through a mini-realignment, until the GOP can reconnect with the centre in America and the minority vote it will not win the White House, and it has a few more electoral cycles to go before the base get that!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver

    'The most remarkable story coming out of the US right now is what is happening to the public finances. Growth has been positive for quarter after quarter, unemployment is well below its peak, confidence is rising, the deficit is falling. Obama is in the process of being vindicated.'

    $16 trillion of debt of which $5 trillion was racked up in the past 3 years,yes truly remarkable.

    And tax revenues now pouring in at record levels, with the deficit tumbling as a result and forecast to be 2.5% of GDP by 2015. And if the GOP stopped playing silly buggers it could be even better.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    tim said:

    @Southam

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/15/us-budget-deficit-austerity-stimulus

    The insanity of the GOP buying into apocalyptic Osborne style hysteria about stimulus failure.
    The deficit will be tumbling by the next election,whereas in Britain we will have failed totally

    If things continue in the same vein Obama may well be judged one of the great American presidents in years to come for how he steered America through a potentially devastating crisis. He must just want to scream out "I told you so".

    Shale oil. Fracking. Low energy costs reversing offshoring.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @SeanT

    To be honest, American politics has been completely transformed by the Civil Rights Act, so anything before that shouldn't really be used in the sample. Since then we have a sample size of five for this situation. That's not strong at all for data analytics.

    For the Republicans to win, they need a six point swing in the rustbelt, or a three point swing in the rustbelt plus a seven point swing in the rural midwest. Clinton's political base is lower class urban whites. Currently more than 50% of Americans disapprove of the GOP.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    MrJones said:

    tim said:

    @Southam

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/15/us-budget-deficit-austerity-stimulus

    The insanity of the GOP buying into apocalyptic Osborne style hysteria about stimulus failure.
    The deficit will be tumbling by the next election,whereas in Britain we will have failed totally

    If things continue in the same vein Obama may well be judged one of the great American presidents in years to come for how he steered America through a potentially devastating crisis. He must just want to scream out "I told you so".

    Shale oil. Fracking. Low energy costs reversing offshoring.
    Hasn't hit yet:

    http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=energy-price-index&months=12

    EDIT

    Also here:

    http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    PS. The reversal of offshoring is a bullshit story of which there's no macro evidence. It's entirely based on a few individual case studies that are not representative of the manufacturing sector. BCG embarrassed themselves in a White House meeting when industry CEOs said flat out it wasn't happening in front of Obama.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    Socrates said:

    Sunil and mr eagles,which camp would you be in - lol

    Star Wars and Doctor Who fans in clash

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/22546463

    I'm a bit of both a Star Wars and a Star Trek fan, but I was disappointed with the various recent "prequels"! I especially like Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, and The Empire Strikes Back, they are my favourite episodes from each of the "sagas".
    If the JJ Abrams films prove any good, the obvious thing to do is to remake the prequels after Lucas has kicked the bucket...
    I'm apprehensive because I didn't like the JJ Abrams Star Trek prequel either!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    PS. The reversal of offshoring is a bullshit story of which there's no macro evidence. It's entirely based on a few individual case studies that are not representative of the manufacturing sector. BCG embarrassed themselves in a White House meeting when industry CEOs said flat out it wasn't happening in front of Obama.

    Cheaper energy will reverse offshoring of high energy using industries if the decrease in energy costs outweighs cheaper labour costs. You may be right it hasn't started yet.

    edit: Or rather has started but is currently very small-scale.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Southam

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/15/us-budget-deficit-austerity-stimulus

    The insanity of the GOP buying into apocalyptic Osborne style hysteria about stimulus failure.
    The deficit will be tumbling by the next election,whereas in Britain we will have failed totally

    .

    If things continue in the same vein Obama may well be judged one of the great American presidents in years to come for how he steered America through a potentially devastating crisis. He must just want to scream out "I told you so".

    Very few posters on here criticising Obamas stimulus to reduce the deficit faster now.
    Be interesting to see if the triumph of Keynesianism and the disaster of austerity permeate European policy
    Abenomics will be the other one to watch, because if it works it will be a proper before-after turnaround story.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Southam

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/15/us-budget-deficit-austerity-stimulus

    The insanity of the GOP buying into apocalyptic Osborne style hysteria about stimulus failure.
    The deficit will be tumbling by the next election,whereas in Britain we will have failed totally

    .

    If things continue in the same vein Obama may well be judged one of the great American presidents in years to come for how he steered America through a potentially devastating crisis. He must just want to scream out "I told you so".

    Very few posters on here criticising Obamas stimulus to reduce the deficit faster now.
    Be interesting to see if the triumph of Keynesianism and the disaster of austerity permeate European policy
    Abenomics will be the other one to watch, because if it works it will be a proper before-after turnaround story.
    I suppose it will depend on how many major economies turn on the printing presses. I guess maybe the backroom deal is that Abe will be allowed to do it in return for TPP concessions?

    As for Obama- don't think he can really be regarded as great when presiding over a) guantanamo b) extrajudicial murders in sovereign nations c) massive expansion of drone attacks

    - well, maybe he can be regarded as great- just not by anyone who calls themselves liberal
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Southam

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/15/us-budget-deficit-austerity-stimulus

    The insanity of the GOP buying into apocalyptic Osborne style hysteria about stimulus failure.
    The deficit will be tumbling by the next election,whereas in Britain we will have failed totally

    .

    If things continue in the same vein Obama may well be judged one of the great American presidents in years to come for how he steered America through a potentially devastating crisis. He must just want to scream out "I told you so".

    Very few posters on here criticising Obamas stimulus to reduce the deficit faster now.
    Be interesting to see if the triumph of Keynesianism and the disaster of austerity permeate European policy
    The UK has been and is, running a huge 'stimulus', for years. The US is cutting government spending.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,960
    Off-topic:

    Should have got me on the job: (*)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-22540560

    Someone's lost a lot of money on this. In the meantime, I get another four months of driving up to Huntingdon for the cinema.

    (*) Or perhaps not
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 15th May - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -35
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    edited May 2013
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 15th May - CON 30%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%; APP -35

    Full results here:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/j8ykzfmje4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-150513.pdf

    No exciting secondaries! The daily YouGov hasn't really been changing all that much during all the turmoil - from memory, Labour on 38-40, Tories on 29-31, UKIP 14-16, LDs 10-12. Neither Tory rows nor better economic data are doing anything special. It's a reminder that voters don't pay as much attention to every politics as we think.

    That said, they do vaguely notice if a party turns into ferrets in a sack, and it has long-term effects on competence ratings.


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The number of Romanian and Bulgarian workers in Britain has jumped by 15 per cent over the past year to a record 112,000 – even though they cannot yet work freely in the UK.

    Some 14,000 extra people from the former Eastern bloc states found jobs last year – equal to 38 people every day, data from the Office for National Statistics revealed yesterday.

    It comes amid fears of a huge influx of Romanians and Bulgarians next year when the restrictions on their rights to work in Britain are lifted.

    At present, they can only work if they are self-employed or are one of a limited number of seasonal workers who are allowed six months’ employment before returning home.

    From January 1 next year, citizens from the new EU member states win the right to unlimited access to Britain’s jobs market.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324988/Number-Romanians-Bulgarians-working-Britain-15-year-103-000-restrictions-lifted.html#ixzz2TQnmKD1E
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    3.5% annualised growth just announced in Japan, as against an expected 2.7%. Not a bad start for Abenomics.
  • @SO

    Erm...that is all priced in a collapsing Yen. What is the GDP growth in USD or Gold? This is a money printing inflation and currency debasement. What's growing faster GDP or inflation?
  • Hilary Clinton will find a 2016 POTUS bid blocked by the Benghazi fallout - for anyone who is following the three current US political scandals (Benghazi, IRS, AP). Instapundit is a good place to start if you want to keep an eye on things.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,012

    3.5% annualised growth just announced in Japan, as against an expected 2.7%. Not a bad start for Abenomics.

    FPT re. UKIP, etc

    apologies had to rush off and apologies for my misunderstanding your point!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,936
    tim said:

    antifrank said:

    Brick Lane is yuppifying quite rapidly. The area is very popular with young City professionals who want to live close to work.


    Some being great grand children of the Jewish immigrants who "drove out" the native Londoners, whose grandparents moved to Golders Green whose parents moved to Bushey and who now move to Brick Lane as Bangladeshis move out.

    And people wonder why London and New York are the hub of the world
    Tim, clearly the post of the day. Excellent.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Re the IRS stuff in the states.
    Bill Maher posted on his FB:

    The IRS targeted people who want to abolish the IRS? Shocking, like getting pulled over more after you put on the f@ck the police bumpersticker.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Anorak from yesturday morning:

    "Any idea of the influence of public-sector pay freezes on the national total? Perhaps those not paid by the state are tracking closer to price increases, so wont 'feel' it as acutely. They're still slowly falling behind prices, though, I'm sure."

    You have it the wrong way around because there is no public sector pay freeze in the same way there is no 'austerity' and no 'cuts'.

    The total earnings changes on the year for March 2013 were

    Private sector -1.3%
    Public sector +1.1%

    On a three month average they were

    Private sector 0.0%
    Public sector +1.4%

    If you exclude the nationalised banks the public sector pay increases are slightly higher still.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763
    On-topic, I'm sure this point will have been made downthread but it wasn't the Conservative leadership the 'rebels' were voting against; it was the Lib Dems. The Conservative leadership and whips are tacitly in support of the so-called rebellion. Hence the instruction on ministers to abstain on the motion (or oppose), which is the minimum consistent with collective responsibility. Hence the publication of the draft bill by the Tory Party a few days ago (here's what you could have won). Hence the acknowledged support that will be given to a private member's bill if a supportive Tory gets lucky in the ballot.

    That said, the media management has been lacking and the narrative, if not the facts, have been consistently about a frontbench/backbench split (which is at best debatable) and Tories voting against the Queen's Speech (which is just plain wrong).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Good morning, everyone.

    Indeed, Mr. Richard, the term 'public sector pay freeze' is a novel use of the English language.

    Saw on the BBC that BP have asked the PM to intervene. It turns out saying you'll give loads of money to anybody who claims their business has been affected by the oil spill means paying out lots of money.

    I do wonder, though, how much the other (American) firms involved in the Deepwater event have been paying out.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    @Financier

    "Some 14,000 extra people from the former Eastern bloc states found jobs last year – equal to 38 people every day"

    Contrary to the effect the Mail were looking for 38 people a day actually sounds a more trifling number than 14.000 a year
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    "the term 'public sector pay freeze' is a novel use of the English language"

    Orwell would have loved it.

    But the funny part is what will happen after 2015 when the public sector unions demand big pay rises to make up for the 'freeze' and the Eds instead have to impose actual pay cuts to make up for all the rises.

    Winter of discontent 2017/18.

    A quote from Marx which EdM will surely know:

    History repeats itself, first as tragedy then as farce.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited May 2013

    Good morning, everyone.

    Indeed, Mr. Richard, the term 'public sector pay freeze' is a novel use of the English language.

    There most certainly was a public pay freeze in my sector. Our brigade had a three year pay freeze, and then, last July, a one percent increase. This was swallowed up by increased pension contributions. Does that make me a public sector fatcat?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,960

    Good morning, everyone.

    Indeed, Mr. Richard, the term 'public sector pay freeze' is a novel use of the English language.

    Saw on the BBC that BP have asked the PM to intervene. It turns out saying you'll give loads of money to anybody who claims their business has been affected by the oil spill means paying out lots of money.

    I do wonder, though, how much the other (American) firms involved in the Deepwater event have been paying out.

    I'd have a lot more sympathy with the US if they took a similar attitude to Bhopal as they are forcing on BP.

    Bhopal is a stain on the US that will take decades to remove. People are still dying from the effects, and others are living with their disabilities. The site has yet to be cleared up. And the US have utterly failed in fulfilling their monetary, ethical and moral obligations.

    That is not to say that BP (and the other companies involved) should not pay out: just that whenever BP is mentioned, people should scream 'Bhopal' at the US.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,960
    Mr Dancer:

    Just reported on R5L: Honda returning to F1 next year as an engine supplier to McLaren.

    We've got McLaren-Honda back! Woohoo!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    "Does that make me a public sector fatcat?"

    It makes you a victim of the public sector fatcats.

    If you're not getting the pay rise then who is ?

    The people at the top perhaps.


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Patrick said:

    Hilary Clinton will find a 2016 POTUS bid blocked by the Benghazi fallout - for anyone who is following the three current US political scandals (Benghazi, IRS, AP). Instapundit is a good place to start if you want to keep an eye on things.

    Doubt it. A poll after the hearings showed her with unchanged high ratings and the majority of the public backing the view that the House hearings were politically motivated and a distraction from more important issues. It also showed that many Republicans were very angry indeed, but at the risk of sounding like Mitt Romney with the 47%, there aren't enough Republicans and they weren't going to vote for her anyway.

    It's possible that the issue will evolve and damage her more, of course, but my guess is that it's seen by floating voters as a Beltway squabble. The IRS issue will certainly mobilise the conservative base in outrage (and frankly I think it does look dodgy), and with both this and the AP story there isn't a link to the top political level.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,408
    Financier said:

    The number of Romanian and Bulgarian workers in Britain has jumped by 15 per cent over the past year to a record 112,000 – even though they cannot yet work freely in the UK.

    Some 14,000 extra people from the former Eastern bloc states found jobs last year – equal to 38 people every day, data from the Office for National Statistics revealed yesterday.

    It comes amid fears of a huge influx of Romanians and Bulgarians next year when the restrictions on their rights to work in Britain are lifted.

    At present, they can only work if they are self-employed or are one of a limited number of seasonal workers who are allowed six months’ employment before returning home.

    From January 1 next year, citizens from the new EU member states win the right to unlimited access to Britain’s jobs market.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324988/Number-Romanians-Bulgarians-working-Britain-15-year-103-000-restrictions-lifted.html#ixzz2TQnmKD1E

    Every big issue seller in Scotland now appears to be Romanian, it seems it is deemed as self employment and allows access to all benefits, tec
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    @Alanbrooke (FPT): "Frankly he is a poor leader of men, I'd say this is because he has been promoted too fast"

    Well, that's what happens when you have people made leader after only a few years in Parliament and with no other experience or even experience of being a Minister. Leading and managing a team has nothing to do with how many degrees you have or how good they were. It needs emotional intelligence, experience, cunning, charm, a willingness to say tough things and to hear them etc.

    We're daft as a society assuming that people barely out of short trousers have the sorts of talents needed to do the job we expect them to.
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