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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400

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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Smarmeron said:

    Theresa May? give permission.
    Interesting way to pressure an unannounced decision?

    "The Mayor's Office for Policing and Crime (MOPAC) said that each cannon had a life-expectancy of five years, or longer with good maintenance, and if approval was not given by Ms May, then they could be re-sold".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27781673

    So if it is not used, it still breaks after 5 years. Call me skeptical, but I don't buy that.
    Even if it gets used everyday. It's only a lorry with a water tank, a pump and a directional hose attached. With a decent maintenance regime (the kind that you need to have to gain an operators licence from VOSA), they should be able to last for way, way more than 5 years.
    Who the hell does government have working for them?
    I can be their fleet manager for a very modest fee.
    Quite. And "buy" them a new one every five years (a new coat of paint and they won't notice!)...
    I guess that they were referring in the 5 years bit to the depreciation period (5 years is quite common for commercial vehicles). But seriously, anyone with a scintilla of fleet management experience would not have allowed them to come out with such rubbish.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    ZenPagan said:

    Hmm is it just me or does something not add up with these cannon

    from the bbc report

    "In a statement, the mayor's office said purchasing the cannon now for just over £218,000, before Theresa May approves them, meant they could be bought at a "considerably reduced rate".

    and later on in the same report

    "The cannon will be purchased for £30,000 each, as opposed to the cost of a single new one at £870,000."

    Now when I went to school 3 x £30000 made £90000 where then has the extra 128000 gone to make up the 218000 mentioned?

    You'll need to give me more info on that one Zen - Where have you got the 3 x 30000?

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @ZenPagan

    Spares? :-)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,513
    edited June 2014
    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD

    It would be hilarious if the Germans had sold them some left over kit from the east.
    A Lada badged cannon would stop a riot just by the sight of it.

    If Driven by you??

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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    JBriskin said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Hmm is it just me or does something not add up with these cannon

    from the bbc report

    "In a statement, the mayor's office said purchasing the cannon now for just over £218,000, before Theresa May approves them, meant they could be bought at a "considerably reduced rate".

    and later on in the same report

    "The cannon will be purchased for £30,000 each, as opposed to the cost of a single new one at £870,000."

    Now when I went to school 3 x £30000 made £90000 where then has the extra 128000 gone to make up the 218000 mentioned?

    You'll need to give me more info on that one Zen - Where have you got the 3 x 30000?

    From the bbc report cited earlier in the thread


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27781673

    clearly says 3 cannons were purchased for 218,000 and that they cost 30000 each
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,038
    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,513
    ZenPagan said:

    Hmm is it just me or does something not add up with these cannon

    from the bbc report

    "In a statement, the mayor's office said purchasing the cannon now for just over £218,000, before Theresa May approves them, meant they could be bought at a "considerably reduced rate".

    and later on in the same report

    "The cannon will be purchased for £30,000 each, as opposed to the cost of a single new one at £870,000."

    Now when I went to school 3 x £30000 made £90000 where then has the extra 128000 gone to make up the 218000 mentioned?

    Postage and Packing ;)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,038
    ZenPagan said:

    JBriskin said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Hmm is it just me or does something not add up with these cannon

    from the bbc report

    "In a statement, the mayor's office said purchasing the cannon now for just over £218,000, before Theresa May approves them, meant they could be bought at a "considerably reduced rate".

    and later on in the same report

    "The cannon will be purchased for £30,000 each, as opposed to the cost of a single new one at £870,000."

    Now when I went to school 3 x £30000 made £90000 where then has the extra 128000 gone to make up the 218000 mentioned?

    You'll need to give me more info on that one Zen - Where have you got the 3 x 30000?

    From the bbc report cited earlier in the thread


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27781673

    clearly says 3 cannons were purchased for 218,000 and that they cost 30000 each
    Could be total cost (purchasing+maintenance contracts etc)
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [clearly says 3 cannons were purchased for 218,000 and that they cost 30000 each]

    Apologies if this is too obvious for some people - you can only presume there's some maintenance costs that will have a limited scope to put through in x years
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,513
    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Indeed. Wish we did.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,066
    RobD said:

    ZenPagan said:

    JBriskin said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Hmm is it just me or does something not add up with these cannon

    from the bbc report

    "In a statement, the mayor's office said purchasing the cannon now for just over £218,000, before Theresa May approves them, meant they could be bought at a "considerably reduced rate".

    and later on in the same report

    "The cannon will be purchased for £30,000 each, as opposed to the cost of a single new one at £870,000."

    Now when I went to school 3 x £30000 made £90000 where then has the extra 128000 gone to make up the 218000 mentioned?

    You'll need to give me more info on that one Zen - Where have you got the 3 x 30000?

    From the bbc report cited earlier in the thread


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27781673

    clearly says 3 cannons were purchased for 218,000 and that they cost 30000 each
    Could be total cost (purchasing+maintenance contracts etc)
    The 6pm news on Radio 4 said the costs were £90,000 for the 3 vehicles plus an additional £130,000 to convert/upgrade and prepare for use in the UK.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,038
    ToryJim said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Indeed. Wish we did.
    Now that hereditary peers have been politically neutered (as it were), it would be slightly easier to justify it. But I think times have moved on too much for it to ever come back into fashion.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Betfair most seats

    Lab 2.00
    Con 2.02

    Will we see crossover tonight?

    Betfair majority also moving

    NOM 2.36
    Lab 3.35
    Con 3.65
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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    JBriskin said:

    [clearly says 3 cannons were purchased for 218,000 and that they cost 30000 each]

    Apologies if this is too obvious for some people - you can only presume there's some maintenance costs that will have a limited scope to put through in x years

    Apologies if it is far too obvious that we have a lot of people well versed in the maintenance of similar equipment who could probably do the job a damn sight cheaper than 128k over 5 years. Hint not much difference between a water cannon and a fire engine I would imagine in the hydraulic department apart from that it is a bog standard truck.

    Perhaps mr Firestopper would like to comment.

    Sounds to me like the police in this case are those people that buy extended warranties at Dixons

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Jim, I agree.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    ZenPagan said:

    JBriskin said:

    [clearly says 3 cannons were purchased for 218,000 and that they cost 30000 each]

    Apologies if this is too obvious for some people - you can only presume there's some maintenance costs that will have a limited scope to put through in x years

    Apologies if it is far too obvious that we have a lot of people well versed in the maintenance of similar equipment who could probably do the job a damn sight cheaper than 128k over 5 years. Hint not much difference between a water cannon and a fire engine I would imagine in the hydraulic department apart from that it is a bog standard truck.

    Perhaps mr Firestopper would like to comment.

    Sounds to me like the police in this case are those people that buy extended warranties at Dixons

    If I bought a german car I'd want german maintenaince - unlike Avery - I have bought a Japanese car

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @ZenPagan

    Retrofitting equipment to bring them up to a safer standard would account for it?
    The Germans purchase new equipment after adverse publicity, and sell on the old ones for the new owner to upgrade?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Indeed. Wish we did.
    The "royal we" still does.

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    Charles said:

    Not fussed about Rory.

    One of my ancestors and 11 friends had sailed to Ireland to support Henry in return for a promise of "all the land over the Shannon".

    Guess which bit he let the O'Connor's keep....

    But by the end of his days, O'Connor had retreated to the life of contemplation, having been utterly outplayed by the Anglo-Norman barons... He would have no longer posed any threat at all.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,027
    JBriskin said:

    Good evening everyone,

    As ever, a genuine Scottish thread makes me wary and scared.

    However - I do have a killer quote that everyone should know by now that I'm not quite complete enough to speed fire.

    Lagarde: "Do you want me to go down on my knees for you" (AMarr, Bbc, Sunday Am)

    Sexy bitch.

    All well done Morris at your weekend performance - it certainly kept us interested.

    Didn't Alice Miles say something similar?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Briskin, thanks :)

    I have to admit, it was extremely lucky. Both bets came off largely due to luck. Still, if fortune has to play a role in betting I won't complain if it's helpful.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I'd have to google that Sean F - if it's a cliché it's not a boring one to me :)
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    That's Ok Morris - I must admit our tips largely don't match up but at least it makes it interesting.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,027
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Secret Pardons issued to paramilitaries during the troubles NI Secretary has admitted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-27760311

    There is a school of thought that the IRA was always a front for the establishment -MI6, Prince Phillip, Nasty Bilderbergers etc. Hence them blowing up Airey Neave pretty sharpish after he deposed Heath. And the later attempt to destroy Thatcher and her cabinet. Thatcher of course is always seen as the arch-establishment figure, but if you take a radical view of post war British politics as the slow but deliberate disintegration of the British economy and indeed the British state, then Thatcher must be seen as more of an accidental insurgent, and her time in office as an interregnum bookended by engineered decline. Interesting to think of the IRA as the reactionaries, and Thatcher as a revolutionary.

    It is a theory made more plausible by stories like this. In this context, Martin McGuinness in white tie hobnobbing with the Royals makes a sort of grim sense.
    Such a school should be in special measures
    Republican and loyalist terrorist organisations were so riddled with spies and informers that they do remind me of The Man Who Was Thursday.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    dr_spyn said:

    World Cup 2010, Uruguay finished 3rd - Italy 4th. England will be hoping that both teams have regressed in the last 4 years.

    Italy finished bottom of their group in 2010. England would be more than happy with the same this time. I wouldn't, having drawn them in the sweepstake.
    Even if I had drawn them in the sweepstake and they weren't in England's group I would still be delighted to see them come bottom.

    They've been boring the arse off football fans the world over for years.
    Yes, but I stand to win £3k+ if they end up lifting the cup so frankly they can go through 0-0 on penalties for all I care.
    Crikey - that is one hell of a lottery.

    What were the stakes? I make that ~£100 a pick. Not sure I'd throw that in on on a sweepstake.

    Point of order: there are no pens in the group stage!
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RodCrosby said:

    Betfair most seats

    Lab 2.00
    Con 2.02

    Will we see crossover tonight?

    Betfair majority also moving

    NOM 2.36
    Lab 3.35
    Con 3.65

    Let's hope so. Good time to back Labour, as PtP was saying this morning. Their poll lead appears to be stretching.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Briskin, I think Mr. Putney and I tend to make differing bets as well. But with 11 teams and 22 drivers there's plenty of scope for greenery.

    Looking forward to Austria. Shame it's not on the BBC, though.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,513
    edited June 2014
    Interesting piece by La Toynbee on Theresa May and her leadership chances

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/10/theresa-may-michael-gove-tories-leadership

    Edit - not Toynbee, swear that was the byline when I started reading.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    dr_spyn said:

    World Cup 2010, Uruguay finished 3rd - Italy 4th. England will be hoping that both teams have regressed in the last 4 years.

    Italy finished bottom of their group in 2010. England would be more than happy with the same this time. I wouldn't, having drawn them in the sweepstake.
    Even if I had drawn them in the sweepstake and they weren't in England's group I would still be delighted to see them come bottom.

    They've been boring the arse off football fans the world over for years.
    Yes, but I stand to win £3k+ if they end up lifting the cup so frankly they can go through 0-0 on penalties for all I care.
    Crikey - that is one hell of a lottery.

    What were the stakes? I make that ~£100 a pick. Not sure I'd throw that in on on a sweepstake.

    Point of order: there are no pens in the group stage!
    It's not a lottery - it's a lose - but who want politicos betting on football eh???

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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Russia as well Morris!

    They should really be going for less races at this stage - a point EJ was making - I hope the point gets through.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,338
    edited June 2014
    Why has Betfair moved against Lab when Lab has improved in the polls over the last couple of weeks?

    Has anyone got any info re polls about to come out?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Briskin, aye, but Russia looks a bit rubbish.

    As for fewer races, I can't see it happening. I fear if they go down that route instead of tossing overboard the soulless glitz of Singapore we'll end up losing a classic like Spa.

    Next year Azerbaijan will likely join the calendar, and they're pushing for Mexico too.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ladbrokes - Next UK GE - Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles

    Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 10/11 (from 11/10)
    Cons Most Votes and Cons Most Seats EVS (from 6/5)
    Cons Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 5/1 (from 7/2)
    Lab Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 66/1 (from 100/1)
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,948
    RodCrosby said:

    Betfair most seats

    Lab 2.00
    Con 2.02

    Will we see crossover tonight?

    Betfair majority also moving

    NOM 2.36
    Lab 3.35
    Con 3.65

    Looks like 1.92/2.02 to me
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    IndyRef Turnout: high turnout continues to shorten as both Betfair and Bwin cut their prices.

    Both still have the stand out prices for 75%+ backers: EVS
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JBriskin said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    dr_spyn said:

    World Cup 2010, Uruguay finished 3rd - Italy 4th. England will be hoping that both teams have regressed in the last 4 years.

    Italy finished bottom of their group in 2010. England would be more than happy with the same this time. I wouldn't, having drawn them in the sweepstake.
    Even if I had drawn them in the sweepstake and they weren't in England's group I would still be delighted to see them come bottom.

    They've been boring the arse off football fans the world over for years.
    Yes, but I stand to win £3k+ if they end up lifting the cup so frankly they can go through 0-0 on penalties for all I care.
    Crikey - that is one hell of a lottery.

    What were the stakes? I make that ~£100 a pick. Not sure I'd throw that in on on a sweepstake.

    Point of order: there are no pens in the group stage!
    It's not a lottery - it's a lose - but who want politicos betting on football eh???

    Judging from some of the gigantic inaccuracies we have witnessed on here this afternoon most of the PB Righties should avoid football betting full stop
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    IndyRef - best prices

    Yes 7/2 (Lad, Betfair)
    No 1/4 (various)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    Why has Betfair moved against Lab when Lab has improved in the polls over the last couple of weeks?

    Has anyone got any info re polls about to come out?

    Maybe because punters are looking at real votes cast in the local elections, Euro elections, and Newark.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,338
    Anthony has just updated the UKPR average.

    Perhaps surprisingly it's now 32/35 - was 31/35 before.

    Con being helped by Populus and the previous Ashcroft largely dropping out.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Jim, don't underestimate the tenacity of an old limpet.

    Ecclestone may or may not go soon, but he's lasted far longer than many would have expected. I would anticipate Blatter will be similarly reluctant to go.

    However, he may have significantly over-reached himself, as Speaker Martin did when he had a go at Kate Hoey.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,338
    The Dutch FA man on FIFA has made very lengthy comments (broadcast on Sky Sports News) calling for Blatter to go - he really went for it big time.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2014
    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Including Harold Macmillan's elevation in 1981 HM The Queen has created twelve hereditary peerages from that date.

  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,513
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Including Harold Macmillan's elevation in 1981 HM The Queen has created twelve hereditary peerages.

    That's quite limited, indeed the last hereditary award outside the family was the Thatcher Baronetcy.

  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,513
    Mr Dancer, I never underestimate any crook.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,859
    New Thread
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,489
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Including Harold Macmillan's elevation in 1981 HM The Queen has created twelve hereditary peerages.

    Macmillan's peerage was in 1986.

    I'm assuming you mean she's created 12 hereditary peerages since the routine creation ended in 1964/5. In her first 13 years, she created dozens. Also, of those since 1965, only three commoners have been raised to an hereditary rank, of which two had no heir so were in effect just a superior form of life peerage.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. W, one wishes it to be known that one is available for ennoblement.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ladbrokes - Next UK GE - Most Votes/Most Seats Doubles

    Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 10/11 (from 11/10)
    Cons Most Votes and Cons Most Seats EVS (from 6/5)
    Cons Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 5/1 (from 7/2)
    Lab Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 66/1 (from 100/1)

    OK, this is still an outlandish bet, but why is this shortening ? Could the punters explain this ?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Surbiton, London effect?

    It's been commented before that Labour could stack up votes in London but that wouldn't gain them many seats, whereas the blues may actually be getting a more efficient turnout, gaining more seats for not many more votes.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,489
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    dr_spyn said:

    World Cup 2010, Uruguay finished 3rd - Italy 4th. England will be hoping that both teams have regressed in the last 4 years.

    Italy finished bottom of their group in 2010. England would be more than happy with the same this time. I wouldn't, having drawn them in the sweepstake.
    Even if I had drawn them in the sweepstake and they weren't in England's group I would still be delighted to see them come bottom.

    They've been boring the arse off football fans the world over for years.
    Yes, but I stand to win £3k+ if they end up lifting the cup so frankly they can go through 0-0 on penalties for all I care.
    Crikey - that is one hell of a lottery.

    What were the stakes? I make that ~£100 a pick. Not sure I'd throw that in on on a sweepstake.

    Point of order: there are no pens in the group stage!
    32 of us at work have put a fiver a month in since the last world cup. Overall there's close to £8k in the kitty due to interest, and prizes down to quarter-finalists.

    Fair point on the penalties, but if they could go through with three 0-0's in the group stage anyway, if, say, England their other two matches and the remaining game was also a draw.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Including Harold Macmillan's elevation in 1981 HM The Queen has created twelve hereditary peerages.

    Macmillan's peerage was in 1986.

    I'm assuming you mean she's created 12 hereditary peerages since the routine creation ended in 1964/5. In her first 13 years, she created dozens. Also, of those since 1965, only three commoners have been raised to an hereditary rank, of which two had no heir so were in effect just a superior form of life peerage.
    We're both wrong. It was 1984.

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,489
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Hmm I just discovered that the manager of Spain is now a hereditary member of the aristocracy. That's got to be a World Cup first.

    Spain still regularly dish out hereditary peerages, it looks as though he was elevated in 2011.
    Including Harold Macmillan's elevation in 1981 HM The Queen has created twelve hereditary peerages.

    Macmillan's peerage was in 1986.

    I'm assuming you mean she's created 12 hereditary peerages since the routine creation ended in 1964/5. In her first 13 years, she created dozens. Also, of those since 1965, only three commoners have been raised to an hereditary rank, of which two had no heir so were in effect just a superior form of life peerage.
    We're both wrong. It was 1984.

    Quite right. He died in 1986. '84 was his 90th birthday, which is when his earldom was announced.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Better than the building society but the 4-5 1st show on a Con win at Newark was the gift of the year so far.
This discussion has been closed.