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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO
The punter, said to be a middle aged man, placed a bet via a banker’s draft 1/4 on an IndyRef NO at a William Hill’s betting shop in SW London. He stands to make a profit of £100,000 if that’s how the referendum goes.
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JohnO, where were you this bet was placed?
Oh come on Mike, with your millions?
This may be a little deceptive. The recent 2 week gap in polling has reduced the apparent activity. But if you believe that is where we are a bet like this makes a good deal of sense.
My one remaining reservation would be the effect of a tory lead in the polling. That could have an effect on the key swing group, namely Scottish Labour. I really don't see anything else that could have a major effect now. The campaigns have been as inept as each other but the onus was on Yes and their arguments have been abysmal.
In reply to Charles:-
Well I think kids who go to a non- faith school would do just as well as going to a faith school. Faith schools only look good because they have good 'raw material'. On an individual level kids should do the same imo. Its also one of the reasons why private schools tend to seem to do really well compared to state schools . I like Mr Gove and appreciate his efforts to improve state schooling despite the sneers from supposed lefties who should applaud this attempt to bring up standards for poorer children.
As I said yesterday though, it is bloody silly to base a child's education on what fairy tale about God their parent' believe (or pretend to believe) in. If you have to , replace faith schools with another selection criteria be it grammar schools (at least it is fairly logical to base a kid's education on how good at it they are)
He doesn't play for anything less than £40 million.
I wonder if the Surrey man is a certain W. Hill.
William Hill @sharpeangle 2 hrs
@guy_wersh @gandhiway @paulwaugh @tnewtondunn Think you'll find June 10,2014 is today-£200,000. No bet last June.
'Record £200,000 Bet On No Vote In Scottish Indie Referendum
Published on Monday, 24 June 2013 15:56
Written by Graham Sharpe
RECORD £200,000 BET ON SCOTS VOTING AGAINST INDEPENDENCE'
Dan Hodges?
Toby Young?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27778372
Graham Sharpe, Media Projects Director at the betting firm, said: "We've had some large four-figure bets from both sides, but this blows them out of the water. It is the largest bet we've taken on the referendum by quite a way.
"It is unusual to take such a big money bet at this stage, with 100 days to go, usually people will wait to see if somebody says something stupid as campaigns step up before committing to such a large bet.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/278527-glasgow-gambler-puts-200000-on-a-no-vote-on-scottish-independence/
Must have been a different William Hill who took a 200k bet last year, which is clearly more than a four figure bet
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/27/suddenly-the-high-rollers-get-attracted-by-the-indyref-betting/
Edit:
"One school even banned Christmas" - DM front page today.
By May 3rd, two days before polling day, the ICM Guardian gave NO a 68-32 lead, which was as close as one could get to the final result when rounding to the nearest percentage point.
In my view, the only sensible conclusion to take from this is that campaigns can change people's minds if one is notably more inept than the other. It remains to be seen whether this will be the case for the Independence Referendum, but supporters of both campaigns will have reason to hope that the other campaign will prove to be more inept.
They can probably rely on taking a lot of money on YES at 10/3 or 7/2 now, especially as they have plenty of shops in Scotland. As long as the polls don't suddenly lurch NO-wards, they can be top price on YES for a while and give themselves a nice trading position.
That's how I'd be thinking, anyway.
Limits online on politics (and the restrictions that many of pb's regulars labour under) are a consequence of arbing and betting intelligently into illiquid or one-bookie-only markets, both of which will beat the bookies in the long run. This is not an illiquid market.
However once you identify yourself as a shrewd punter there's little in it for the bookies to keep laying you, even on the more liquid markets. The likes of OGH, who formulate their own bets, may get "Marker" status where they are restricted but not as severely, to assist the bookie in their pricing. Those who merely follow others' tips or arb are likely to get cut to ribbons.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/against-all-odds/#more-56747
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumibol_Adulyadej
My explanation is superior because it relies on the subjective judgement that the Yes to AV campaign was fantastically inept, a judgement that so few people would dispute that it borders on being objective
* Mainly that I disagree with you.
No @ Even Money for £100.
The ONS released its Index of Production bulletin for April 2014 this morning.
The IoP is one of the earliest indicators of growth and it measures output in the manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining & quarrying, energy supply and water supply & waste management industries. The production industries account for 15.2% of the output approach to the measurement of gross domestic product.
The Production Index shows the manufacturing sector growing at an annual rate of 4.4%, more than enough to compensate for falls in North Sea Oil & Gas extraction, and a sign that the government's rebalancing strategy is returning dividends.
The impact of Oil & Gas extraction is described as follows:
Recent divergences between manufacturing and total production can be primarily attributed to movements within the sub-industry groupings that make up total production, namely the mining and quarrying industries. Despite the industry only comprising approximately 15.1% to total production, its volatility and the overall downward trend (the industry has contracted in 13 out of the past 14 years) has provided downward pressure on total production, which can be predominantly attributed to North Sea oil and gas reserves becoming increasingly challenging to extract and ageing extraction equipment requiring extensive repairs and maintenance. [to be continued]
Now before the Midlands' Malcontents start posting statistics which claim Osborne has presided over countless manufacturing recessions since 2010, some pertinent economic context is needed:
Globally, the performance of manufacturing has varied across G7 nations since the economic downturn of 2008; Japan experienced the largest initial fall in output (32%), in contrast the shallowest decline was in the UK (13%).
Following the 2008/09 economic downturn, all G7 nations’ manufacturing industries returned to growth. However, with the exception of the USA, all members experienced further declines between the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2013, particularly in Italy. More recently, all members (excluding Germany as data unavailable at time of writing) saw growth in manufacturing output in Q1 2014, however, output remained below their respective pre-downturn peaks, with Italy, France and Japan remaining more than 10% below, whereas the UK remained 7.6% below. The USA was the closest member to its pre-downturn peak at just 2.6% below.
So the real story is that UK maufacturing has performed better than all its G7 competitors except the US, although the gap with Germany is insignificant. It should also be noted that both the fall and subsequent recovery in manufacturing output has been more gradual in the UK than in competitor countries.
Go George, GO!
What happens if all three games in a group happen to be draws?
Where is this 100% return on England winning the world cup ?
Unionists should get worried if Compouter says it won't happen.
"HurstLlama said:
The new voter registration system will see the number of people on the register fall and I suspect by quite large amounts. I spent a month last winter trudging the street of Hurstpierpoint and district knocking on doors and trying to get people who had not responded to the councils invitation to register as a voter. Of nearly 400 households on my list I managed to get just under 200 to sign up. If I had had to get the National Insurance Number for each voter I doubt I would have got into double figures. That is in nice, comfortable, law-abiding (it is an offence not to fill in voter registration forms) rural Sussex. What it will be like in inner city areas I dread to think."
Lennon said:
"Presumably, that will make Turnout 'appear' to be up, and possibly quite dramatically, as those people that can't be bothered to register are unlikely to have been bothered to vote previously, and so the numerator will not have changed much, but the denominator fallen quite considerably. Worth bearing in mind when considering 'Turnout' bets."
A very good point. There will be all sorts of screwy statistical effects from the new system but the biggest real effect will be I think that the number of Labour supporters on the register will go down. Whether that will actually mean anything in terms of seats I am not sure.
The ranking of each team in each group shall be determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all the group matches;
b) goal difference in the group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in the group matches.
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.
England won't win the world cup, because we're not that good, the heat, and there's a few better teams in the tournament.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100275660/memo-to-tory-optimists-labour-is-losing-support-but-youre-not-gaining-it/
There's a problem in a series of 'secular' schools and not in a faith school, so lets solve it by turning all the faith-based schools into the sort that had the problem...
I have an idea. Let's solve all the postal voting problems by banning hamsters :-).
Logic might say to give these schools to the CofE to run if you want Muslim majority schools run in an inclusive manner.
The idea that you spend public money indoctrinating children with your favourite superstition is scandalous.
@Tissue Price - I can't see England beating Costa Rica (or the other two either). I can see England coming home without winning a game. I'd like to be wrong, but defeat at the hands of Italy and Uruguay seems nailed on. If at that point England are already eliminated, then they might scrape a win against whomever they play last, although if they play Italy or Uruguay last, even then I doubt it.
My guess would be Brazil versus Argentina in the final with Germany and Italy playing off for third.
I've got £20 on England at 33-1. I could actually lay at 30.5-1 right now to gain a green/free bet on England winning so to speak.
I am sure the same would happen in other countries were there mass immigration of Christians while the locals were banned from complaining about it/not listened to
Millions of people in the UK live in a segregated society, it was entirely predictable, and nothing can be done about it.
Thats the problem with progressive politicians, they give everything a try without thinking it through, call anyone who warns of future problems names to silence them, then find they cant clean up the mess when it all goes wrong
Oh well.
Mr. Jim, they have a bitey bucktoothed fellow who apparently is skilled at the important and civilised art of kicking a ball.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10888958/Al-Qaeda-seizes-Iraqs-third-largest-city-as-terrified-residents-flee.html
Edited extra bit: on a semi-serious note, I wonder about more tennis betting and/or trying to bet on football. I really like F1, as people may have noticed, but it's not nearly as frequent as other sporting events, limiting betting possibilities.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/dont-listen-to-the-whingers--london-needs-immigrants-6786170.html
"What's missing is not only a sense of the benefits of immigration but also of where it came from. It didn't just happen: the deliberate policy of ministers from late 2000 until at least February last year, when the Government introduced a points-based system, was to open up the UK to mass migration....
...London's role as a magnet for immigration busted wide open the stale 1990s clichés about multiculturalism: it's a question of genuine diversity now, not just tacking a few Afro-Caribbean and Bengali events on to a white British mainstream....
...Eventually published in January 2001, the innocuously labelled "RDS Occasional Paper no. 67", "Migration: an economic and social analysis" focused heavily on the labour market case.
But the earlier drafts I saw also included a driving political purpose: that mass immigration was the way that the Government was going to make the UK truly multicultural.
I remember coming away from some discussions with the clear sense that the policy was intended - even if this wasn't its main purpose - to rub the Right's nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date."
The Labour Party deliberately wanted to move away from what they regarded as "a white British mainstream" to make the UK "truly multicultural" and "rub the Right's nose in diversity". Well here we have an alternative culture - bigoted, sexist and autocratic. They have reaped a whirlwind on this country, and Theresa May and the Conservatives have failed to even get immigration back to pre-97 levels, let alone deal with Labour's toxic legacy.
EXCLUSIVE: Senior Tories examining plan to form a government with DUP
David Cameron needs to win more than 316 seats to secure outright majority
If he falls just short, could rely on 8 Democratic Unionist MPs to take power
Polls suggest a narrow result is possible at the 2015 general election
Around 40 Tory MPs are ready to block a second coalition with Lib Dems
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2653992/Tories-plotting-form-coalition-Northern-Ireland-MPs-avoid-sharing-power-Clegg.html
Charles Clark puts the boot in to his own side:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/charles-clarke-labour-has-no-credible-economic-plan-and-voters-dont-see-miliband-as-pm/
Mind you I'd take the old goat more seriously if he could afford to buy a razor - either grow a proper set or shave off, appearing with two day stubble just makes people look like losers
Argentina look the value amongst the favourites, although I've seen plenty of respected judges tipping up Spain for one last hurrah. I've already tipped Switzerland @ 160 on betfair as a live outsider. I wouldn't get hung up on the "never won in South America" stat; that dates back to the days of boat travel, and it only held true by the width of an Argentinian post struck (by the Dutch) in the last minute of normal time in 1978, with the score 1-1.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/insurgents-seize-iraqi-city-of-mosul-as-troops-flee/2014/06/10/21061e87-8fcd-4ed3-bc94-0e309af0a674_story.html
So the west once more has supported a group that has turned into a frankenstein monster, al qaeda now has a proper airforce since they captured an iraqi air base with 26 fighter jets intact, the oil fields and the oil pipeline that leads to Turkey.
Time for a war in the middle east to get rid of the syrian islamic rebels before they conquer Iraq?
Because at this rate they will reach the US embassy in Baghdad by the end of the month and the US will be forced to defend it's embassy, effectively restarting the Iraq war.
Where is yokel when you need an explanation?
Injured I assume.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/my-401-tip-to-win-the-world-cup-chile/
Mr Dancer doesn't the craft of football require that a further 10 such players be on the pitch to help with some others to replace them if things aren't working?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-labour
and here
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-conservative
This is where Labour's famed focus on the marginals could come back to haunt them, as if they don't put the effort in to have their supporters registered to vote in their safe seats then their safe seats will expand geographically and they will have fewer of them.
It is better to start from a position of empirical evidence - that being the accidental or random creation of our universe and cast doubt upon anyone trying to dress that up with a pretty back story, than pseudo-validate faith by naming anti-faith.
Man is the measure of all things. Of the reality of those things which are, and the unreality of those things which are not.
Mr. Speedy, cheers for that post. We will not support Assad. The Government's said too much about him and his regime to perform a volte-face.
Blair was a ****ing disaster. Worth mentioning that when some attack UKIP for their views, or the Conservatives for alleged Islamophobia for not shrugging when white women are described as prostitutes in schools, that it was the right-on, politically correct, mainstream Tony Blair who was a lying, incompetent, cretinous ****.