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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: June 5th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: June 5th 2014
Clydesdale South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result: Labour 1,492 votes (41% -3%), Scottish National Party 1,170 (32% -10%), Conservative 659 (18% +8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 233 (6% +2%), Green 104 (3%)
Labour GAIN from SNP on the fifth count with a majority of 322 (9%) on a swing of 3.5% from SNP to Lab
Turnout: 30.97%
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FPT @CarlottaVance
Regarding politics and fairness
Yes ok, but we are discussing politics not spinning for parties. So what is the point of non UKIPpers on here saying a respectable result is bad? You dont have to play pretend politics as if votes are at stake and you have a meme to push, we can be honest surely?
I wouldn't say bad, but it was a result that fell short of the hyped up expectations (even UKIP's own hype).
Did the earth move when College punctured his inflatable poll?
Can anyone remember who the Lib Dems were?
Is Mr. Brooke sober?
In the 70s and 80s you had a party system that was significantly more polarised than the electorate, there was always a middle ground of voters who were under-served by parties fairly far away from them on the political spectrum.
The emergence/success of the SDP-Liberal alliance was a result of this ignored marketplace, of course there was a reaction. Since they became a threat on the inside flank of each party the two parties reacted by coming much more to the centre and fighting over the centreground.
In this way the Alliance has defined the last 30 years of British politics (and why you can find ex-Alliance members in both major political parties, from Millbank to No. 10).
(It also shows how UKIP may achieve things without much electoral success, but by moving the Tory party).
What this move to the centre has done is open up space on the outer flank of the Conservative party (to massively over-simplicate how the political spectrum works). that UKIP are now filling.
That said I'm skeptical how much demand there is to attract outside the Tories right flank (of course Tories are also trying to appeal to socially conservative Labour voters and like I siad, complicated).
It's not like there's no space for anything between Aldi and Waitrose.
Be careful what you vote for, you might end up getting it.
Are UKIP advocating ending democary in the UK? No. They're advocating increasing the democratic accountability of the state, by returning powers from the EU to the UK.
The Hancock eyeroll:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaaeesIYAEYeEC.jpg:large
Cheers
So how could UKIP be worse? Some no mark councillor says "poof" on twitter or tells a racist joke on facebook? I'll suffer that
Competing in no hope Labour and Conservative constituencies
Putting up candidates for council elections and by-elections despite the poor return
Actually getting MEPs and councillors elected
Getting more and more members
Yep, they're done jacksh1t compared to Labour's 36% strategy and the Tories' 40/40 strategy.
Just recently, Labour didn't bother in Newark and the Tories haven't bothered in a whole slew of Labour held by-elections.
UKIP reaped the rewards in recent Euros, even getting an MEP in Scotland.
Just to reply to the rabid Cameroon stooge John from the previous thread.
I have always been absolutely clear where I stand on a referendum. I want one that we can win. Not one that has already been stitched up by Cameron with his lies and false promises so there is no chance of an Out vote. The referendum is simply a means to an end. The end is getting out of the EU. .
Now I now the thicker Tory Europhiles like JohnO have difficulty with this but if the aim is to leave the EU then a referendum where both the main parties are supporting staying in and where the PM is making false claims about some minor changes to the EU which will be dropped as soon as the referendum is out of the way is not the way to achieve this.
Cameron is the problem not the solution and getting rid of him is the only way we will see any realistic chance of us leaving the EU in the next decade.
That has always been my position so for JohnO to somehow calm that I have been disingenuous about this is an outright lie - and just what I would expect from a plastic Conservative.
But, if they really thought that, they would have wanted held a referendum on Lisbon (as Cameron promised) despite the treaty being ratified. Cameron, of course, didn't hold one but the Tory liars still expect everyone to take his word.
Had the party [UKIP} run an alternative candidate to Roger Helmer, whose past comments include describing rape victims as sharing "the blame" and homosexuals as "abnormal and undesirable", it would almost certainly have performed better. One Labour source told me that some voters cast a tactical vote for the Tories to stop Ukip, with one comparing it to voting for Jacques Chirac over Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 2002 French presidential election. "Helmer is Hitler," one said.
Full NS blog article: http://bit.ly/1nULXdW
That said no matter who was chosen as UKIP candidate the Tories would still have won. All that might have happened is the race might have been a little closer by a thousand or two.
And he calls himself a libertarian.
1) Middle class tactical voting against UKIP from the sort of wishy-washy person who previously voted LibDem in the belief that the Libdems were the 'nice' party is likely. Likewise working class tactical voting for UKIP will also be possible where they challenge the Conservatives.
2) Newark has shown that the 'Reactionary Tory' image of Helmer is a dead end and will not get them anything more than solid second places in strong Conservative areas - you can't outTory the Tories.
Leading to a third conclusion:
3) UKIP need a more varied public image. More working class, more women, younger.
http://labs.ebuzzing.co.uk/top-blogs/politics
Either you want a referendum, or you secretly don't. To quote part of a speech known and loved by all UKIPers: "he which hath no stomach to this fight, Let him depart"
I said this in the other thread before I realised there was this one:
An interesting analysis, but what is 'centre' is a totally abstract concept, defined by what is at either end of the spectrum. There were 'centrist' Nazis. A successful party redefines the centre ground.
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for his by-election summary.
Before you know where you are, people will be involuntarily be removed to purify the state
Don't trust UKIP, is my view.
'I have always been absolutely clear where I stand on a referendum. I want one that we can win.'
Get real ,UKIP have been whining on for years about an EU referendum,one has now been offered and they now come up with endless pathetic excuses for not having one.
Just a bunch of chickens.
and I thought I had a drink problem
Getting rid of Cameron is a pre-requisite to leaving the EU as he will stoop to anything to ensure it does not happen and nasty little slimeballs like you will help him do it.
Cameron is irrelevant. Try making a case.
Which reminds me, I completely forgot about practice today. Bugger. Oh well. I blame Dragon Age: Origins for this.
Edited extra bit: just checked the P1 and P2 times. If they're representative then Force India are surprisingly slow. Mind you, they are going to have to upgrade their car one of these days.
Anyone stupid enough to actually believe that Cameron is sincere in his claims about negotiating any real change in the EU clearly does not understand either Cameron or the EU.
Line 1 in the UKIP manifesto?
I think it better to stick to train liveries, and taxi uniforms.
UKIP have had a far more successful couple of months than I would ever have thought possible and I whilst I don't share the rather fanciful predictions of some UKIP supporters I am looking forward to a solid double digit vote share, a couple of seats and having denied Cameron the chance to take the country for a ride once again.
I guess Farage and his henchmen agreed. Hence the selection of a candidate who was an incumbent MP and top of the East Midlands party list in this year's Euros. It was a 'nothing to lose' decision.
But what they forgot in this assessment was that Newark would have the eyes of the nation upon it and that the UKIP candidate, even if not a winner, would become a showcase for the party. A bit like Diane James became the 'alternatve and acceptable' face of the party in Eastleigh. Farage missed a trick here.
What is worse he queered the pitch of Helmer by getting photographed in Malta at 3:42 am 'assisting a handicapped woman back to her hotel'. A defence which became even more unbelievable the following day when The Sun published a photo of what he had been up to before becoming the good knight of Malta. See: http://bit.ly/1nnXXkw
Now Sam may laugh away such laddish holiday destination behaviour, but imagine how Farage would have reacted to Godfrey Bloom pulling the same stunt on him if he (Farage) had been standing in Newark.
If UKIP are to win a by election they must show the electorate that they both want and deserve to win. They did neither do in Newark. And that is before setting out what benefits the electors of Newark would receive from such election.
What is important now is to make sure that when he comes crawling back claiming 'peace in our time' we can show that he is continuing his lies in defence of the indefensible. That will be a far more difficult task and I would prefer if it were not necessary as I am not sure it can be done.
There've been various bits of academic research into things like that, asking people questions to place them on a spectrum(s) or just asking them where they see themselves (which is a different thing but also useful) and also where they perceive the parties to be etc.
During that period of polarisation they found the parties had spread apart on the spectrum and you had this middle ground of voters that didn't feel particularly close to a party, but voted for it because the other party was even further away.
Thatcher moved the centre ground but didn't occupy it, she pulled at it from the right wing and Labour was so far to the left and hoping to retake power from there. The political party gravity was spread to the wings and left an ignored centre.
That fertile ground was what allowed the Alliance to grow so quickly and have the success they have. Their effect was to shift the political gravity so it was concentrated in the political centre-ground rather than on the wings.
Labour and the Conservatives were forced into the opposite gamble they used to make, pushing into the centre to counter the LDs, and reckoning that those on their outer flanks didn't have a better place to go.
And so UKIP found that space.
It's politics as the marketplace, parties trying to find the optimum price point as it were. Whenever a party stretches a bit too far then you get a competitor rising to try for the support of under-served voters.
You can argue about the efficiency of the system (and it is much more complicated than one spectrum) but there is an essential logic to it.
I need to get around to setting up a facebook thing for the site at some point. Get all the promotion whatsits going.
I've never even heard of Pride's Purge, which given my affinity for all things even tangential to the Civil War period I am surprised about. But I think I've become a bit of a poll junkie, and pb scratches that itch pretty well.
He's not as sexy as the real one though.
Heard rumours Inquisition might be delayed. About 5 major games were due to come out within a week or so, but Arkham Thingummyjig (next Batman game) has already announced a delay. If Inquisition does come out later I hope we get an early look at the character creator as per Origins.
Whatever the outcome of September's referendum, the SNP have already won extra autonomy for Scotland.
If you want out of the EU, the sensible thing is to elect people who make that their aim.
Although I wouldn't say that the Scottish independence campaign is being conducted with the highest standards of honesty, I don't think that Cameron is capable of making the result a foregone conclusion.
That said, the Referendum Party contested the general election of 1997, and UKIP are more than a party asking for a referendum, so they do not owe automatic support to any other party just because that party promises a referendum on UK membership of the EU.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/t1.0-9/10250177_10152341081638270_8386451188195878339_n.jp
(Add a g to the end to spell jpg)
EDIT: To be fair, if they do vote for him, they are idiots so he would be right I suppose
Interestingly I don't think the Newark result really impacts anything for any of the parties. A UKIP win would have been notable only for the fact it would have resulted in a UKIP MP and as such the result would have had a far bigger impact than it perhaps would have deserved.
Amazingly even for the Lib Dems I don't think it really changes anything as it just continues the current thinking that they are in deep trouble. It makes it no more or less likely that they will disappear as the third party (personally I don't think they will). Likewise for Labour and the Tories no matter how much their respective supporters might try to spin it I am not sure it really changes anyone's perceptions.
It is also legitimate to object to the use of expressions like "nasty little slimeballs like you" in this debate.
I'd heard Inquisition already had planned a longer development time planned than any previous Bioware game, so it'll be pretty annoying if it is delayed, but that's game development (and A Song of Ice and Fire) for you I guess, and better long wait good game than some yearly iteration - at least my copy of Watchdogs has arrived at last, just in time for the new PC, I hope it's worth the delay (as South Park was).
Arkham Knight I'm not as bothered about, though I am curious to see how the next Assassin's Creed game goes, now that i assume it will be harder to rely on the sailing like in Black Flag.
'Nope, we just recognise a bunch of liars when we see them.'
UKIP bang on for years about the need for an EU referendum and get one,they then do a massive u-turn and come up with endless excuses not to have one, who are the liars?
Even if Daniel Hannan was the Tory PM UKIP would find some excuses.
You don't seem to understand that Farage & co are on the gravy train and have no intention of getting off anytime soon,hook,line & sinker come to mind.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
I'd forgotten I'd written my view on UKIP's route to power before.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/24/the-political-role-of-the-purples-as-a-stalking-horse/
How long is it considered appropriate before I re-hash all that, update it a bit, and call it a new article?
That said, the point made by some about the 'wrong sort of referendum' being an odd line to take, is fair I think. If the position is strong, who cares how you get the referendum, believe enough and you can win. I would not personally advocate voting Tory merely to gain that referendum attempt, but should he get in power and be able to pursue it, it won't matter which side he is on, it's still the right referendum at the right time (the right time being whenever it happens, preferably sooner rather than later).
Richard, it depends on whose perspective you are looking from. You were early, consistent and unambiguous in stating UKIP would not win based on local knowledge.
Others in UKIP and the media hyped UKIPs chances far more. The result has more impact for them than you, as it has for all who were told Torys could or would lose, but then saw a respectable majority.
People like Mr Tyndall are not blinkered minds, they are closed minds and I am fed up with reading their one-eyed nonsense.
It's not sweet. I simply base my view on what you openly say on here.
It's odd, because that's what I do to everyone. This being a political site where people, erm, espouse their views, from time to time.*
*Except Scott_P, who just retweets everyone else's.
UKIP = FRIT.
Newark doesn't impact much external to the parties however it probably has impact within. The result boosts the Conservatives morale, that shouldn't be underestimated. It means that more people will put more effort in over the next year. That increases Tory chances, also having in their perception given UKIP a spanking they will be looking for ways of doing it again.
For Labour the result can only increase doubts about their positioning and strategy. This is a downside for them as parties that have significant doubts about themselves often find ways to communicate those doubts more widely to the electorate.
For Lib Dems the only strategy they have left is to retreat to their re doubts circle the wagons and hope there aren't too many scalps.
It doesn't change the geography but it does alter the disposition of the forces ranging over it.
1) The Conservatives have the appetite for a fight.
2) They seem to have effectively test driven an anti-UKIP tactical voting strategy.
3) Labour don't seem willing to get stuck in.
4) UKIP have a poor ground game still.
5) the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter.
'UKIP = FRIT.'
Spot on,I used to vote for them in the Euros on the basis that they were serious about an EU referendum,they get one & chicken out.
I agree with you re the BBC D-Day, almost cried in front of my dad earlier!
Labour gained a seat from the SNP.
Tories gaining votes in Scotland. Perhaps the independence campaign surrounding NO is helping them. SNP down 10%. Ouch !!
It is is possible that, as Corporeal argued in his header that he may update, that UKIP may redefine the right of British politics. It is also possible that the defection of the Faragistas and Helmerites into the political cul de sac of kipperism, that the rump Tory party becomes more reformed in a centrist model. In other words: some supporters are better out than in.
Certainly I would tactically vote cameroonite to keep out a kipper.
I wouldn't characterise it like that as such.
There is a spectrum (or a large numbers of spectrums that people reduce and combine for the ease of handling), and while that spectrum moves around it also exists.
Representative democracy is a way of interpreting the overall mass of public opinion. There's a lot of analogies you can use.
Public opinion does shift, and can be shifted. But it usually does so relatively slowly (moving the centre-ground is more a case of re-aligning the party loyalty of groups of voters rather than changing their political views as such.
Where the centre ground of the electorate is at any point can be found by aggregating and analysing the views of the electorate at the time.
To link this back to my Lib Dem views, what FPTP does is converts this public opinion into power a very particular way (i.e. strong winners for a particular plurality). It also restricts and concentrates party support in a way that obscures anything beyond the broadest and simplest interpretations of public opinion.
So I support a more proportional system, and indeed coalitions since I think they better reflect public opinion by providing more avenues for it to express itself. Greater liquidity leads to a more efficient market place.
Why would Kippers vote for someone who would campaign to stay in the EU? They despise Europhilia so why would they vote for a Europhile like Cameron who they believe to have destroyed the Tory Party.
The Kippers' aim is not to aid the Tory Party but to replace it.
I personally would not go that far myself.
Gordon Brown's ratio of defending Labour held seats was better than Cameron's. We all know what happened in 2010.
You are reading far, far to much into a seat which Labour did not fight and where the Kippers did not win. You know me better than comfort blankets.
I predicted an easy Tory win from the outset - go back and check my posts when the poll was announced.
All you reveal is your own prejudice which (unlike you apparently) I am more than happy to observe and highlight.
I dont loathe Cameron, I just think he is a bit of a phoney really, and maybe its cutting myself nose off to spite my face referendum wise, but I couldnt vote for someone who I fundamentally disagree with on almost everything.