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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: June 5th 2014

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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Paul Mason @paulmasonnews · 35m
    As we prepare for the UK press coverage of Junker's pull out, thank God the Germans don't have a word for schadenfreude


    Paul Mason @paulmasonnews · 40m
    Jean-Claude Juncker ducks out of EC fight. That Garbo-like "leave me alone" moment summed up existential problem of Euro policy elite

    Apols if posted before

    Jean-Claude Juncker to withdraw bid to lead European Commission, sources say

    The former prime minister of Luxembourg could pull out of the race to succeed José Manuel Barroso within weeks, after a coalition of European leaders attempted to block his candidacy

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10882531/Jean-Claude-Juncker-to-withdraw-bid-to-lead-European-Commission-sources-say.html

    So it looks like that's the stalking horse out of the running. I wonder who is the preferred choice (dripping in Europhilia of course). I'd have favoured Lagarde if Sarkozy was still in power but I do not think Hollande would accept her?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014
    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes
  • Options
    antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    We like comrade Jones because he supports nationalisation Isam.

    On that precedent - I shall go - beyond the paywll and report back.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
  • Options
    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Yeah!!!! That didn't take long you tory bastard journos (I'm afterwatershed) - that's why we pay you-

    £6m Policing Bill For Assange? That’s Your Problem

    The Ecuadorean ambassador to London says that a £6 million policing bill after two years of stalemate over Julian Assange is “not our problem”.

    Juan Falconi Puig, 67, said that Mr Assange was “suffering” but could remain indefinitely in the back room of the ground-floor flat in Knightsbridge, central London, where he went into hiding in June 2012.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4111588.ece
  • Options
    antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    I can see an argument that we lack sufficient evidence to say there's been anti-UKIP tactical voting.

    But I don't think you can definitively say it's nonsense to suggest it.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
    UKIP take from all parties, at differing levels depending on the seat.

    You hate UKIP and it would suit you if there was anti UKIP voting, but it is pure conjecture based on nothing, and is laughable given the fact this was UKIPs 2nd best ever vote share.

    Unless you think anti UKIP votes cost them Eastleigh and were in force in South Shields and Wythenshawe?
  • Options
    antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
    UKIP take from all parties, at differing levels depending on the seat.

    You hate UKIP and it would suit you if there was anti UKIP voting, but it is pure conjecture based on nothing, and is laughable given the fact this was UKIPs 2nd best ever vote share.

    Unless you think anti UKIP votes cost them Eastleigh and were in force in South Shields and Wythenshawe?
    Dream on.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    I can see an argument that we lack sufficient evidence to say there's been anti-UKIP tactical voting.

    But I don't think you can definitively say it's nonsense to suggest it.
    Well there is zero evidence.

    Its desperate to suggest it. The tory vote share went down despite tactical votes from Labour nd the Lib Dems?

    Jackanory
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
    UKIP take from all parties, at differing levels depending on the seat.

    You hate UKIP and it would suit you if there was anti UKIP voting, but it is pure conjecture based on nothing, and is laughable given the fact this was UKIPs 2nd best ever vote share.

    Unless you think anti UKIP votes cost them Eastleigh and were in force in South Shields and Wythenshawe?
    Dream on.
    You have taken me on re UKIP in bets, how are they looking?

    Newarks result was no dofferent to South Shields or Wythenshawe,... Was that due to Tories voting Labour to stop UKIP then?
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited June 2014
    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    I can see an argument that we lack sufficient evidence to say there's been anti-UKIP tactical voting.

    But I don't think you can definitively say it's nonsense to suggest it.
    Well there is zero evidence.

    Its desperate to suggest it. The tory vote share went down despite tactical votes from Labour nd the Lib Dems?

    Jackanory
    There's plenty of anecdotal evidence, and it's a logical enough suggestion.

    I suppose the idea is votes going UKIP <<< Tory<<< LD/Lab

    I wouldn't be surprised if it's happened, but it's currently a possible thing rather than at all verified.

    (Or to restate that slightly, there is almost certainly some anti-tactical UKIP voting occurring, but we lack evidence to say for certain whether it's happening on any significant level).
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited June 2014
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
    UKIP take from all parties, at differing levels depending on the seat.

    You hate UKIP and it would suit you if there was anti UKIP voting, but it is pure conjecture based on nothing, and is laughable given the fact this was UKIPs 2nd best ever vote share.

    Unless you think anti UKIP votes cost them Eastleigh and were in force in South Shields and Wythenshawe?
    Dream on.
    You have taken me on re UKIP in bets, how are they looking?

    Newarks result was no dofferent to South Shields or Wythenshawe,... Was that due to Tories voting Labour to stop UKIP then?
    Sam

    The thing is whether there was tactical voting or not on Thursday is irrelevant. It was a free hit. Labour /Libdem voters lost nothing (and won nothing) by voting Tory on Thursday. it was a Tory seat.

    However come 2015 its no longer a zero sum game. Every seat the Tories lose will take Labour one seat closer to Downing Street and the Tories one seat further away. That thought should insure that tactical voting to stop UKIP taking Tories seats will be minimal (and indeed the same applies for Tory voters in Labour seats in reverse ).
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    I can see an argument that we lack sufficient evidence to say there's been anti-UKIP tactical voting.

    But I don't think you can definitively say it's nonsense to suggest it.
    Well there is zero evidence.

    Its desperate to suggest it. The tory vote share went down despite tactical votes from Labour nd the Lib Dems?

    Jackanory
    There's plenty of anecdotal evidence, and it's a logical enough suggestion.

    I suppose the idea is votes going UKIP <<< Tory<<< LD/Lab

    I wouldn't be surprised if it's happened, but it's currently a possible thing rather than at all verified.</p>
    If you think that is true then why wouldnt you think Tories and Lib Dems were voting Labour in South Shields and Wythenshawe? Same results just a different massive majority for the massive favourite

    Im afraid this smells like typical left wing behaviour. Think of a theory that suits and make it fit
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
    UKIP take from all parties, at differing levels depending on the seat.

    You hate UKIP and it would suit you if there was anti UKIP voting, but it is pure conjecture based on nothing, and is laughable given the fact this was UKIPs 2nd best ever vote share.

    Unless you think anti UKIP votes cost them Eastleigh and were in force in South Shields and Wythenshawe?
    Dream on.
    You have taken me on re UKIP in bets, how are they looking?

    Newarks result was no dofferent to South Shields or Wythenshawe,... Was that due to Tories voting Labour to stop UKIP then?
    Sam

    The thing is whether there was tactical voting or not on Thursday is irrelevant. It was a free hit. Labour /Libdem voters lost nothing (and won nothing) by voting Tory on Thursday. it was a Tory seat.

    However come 2015 its no longer a zero sum game. Every seat the Tories lose will take Labour one seat closer to Downing Street and the Tories one seat further away. That thought should insure that tactical voting to stop UKIP taking Tories seats will be minimal (and indeed the same applies for Tory voters in Labour seats in reverse ).
    The seats UKIP win, if they win any, will be 2010 two way marginals. There wont be Labour supporters voting Tory or vice versa there to stop UKIP

    Not that there was in Newark
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    I can see an argument that we lack sufficient evidence to say there's been anti-UKIP tactical voting.

    But I don't think you can definitively say it's nonsense to suggest it.
    Well there is zero evidence.

    Its desperate to suggest it. The tory vote share went down despite tactical votes from Labour nd the Lib Dems?

    Jackanory
    There's plenty of anecdotal evidence, and it's a logical enough suggestion.

    I suppose the idea is votes going UKIP <<< Tory<<< LD/Lab

    I wouldn't be surprised if it's happened, but it's currently a possible thing rather than at all verified.</p>
    If you think that is true then why wouldnt you think Tories and Lib Dems were voting Labour in South Shields and Wythenshawe? Same results just a different massive majority for the massive favourite

    Im afraid this smells like typical left wing behaviour. Think of a theory that suits and make it fit
    Isam, UKIP preaches LibLabCon all the same etc. Tactical voting would fit right in with UKIP narrative.

    Tactical voting is a very common feature of elections/by-elections, it usually happens.


    The Conservatives were openly campaigning for it during the by-elections and people were tweeting about doing it.

    Who's to say they weren't voting tactically in Wythenshawe etc? In that case there were certainly votes going from Con/LD to Labour, but hard to differentiate between tactical voting to just normal voter shift.
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Owen Jones, chief writer of lefty nonsense, says there was an anti UKIP vote in Newark

    This is really stretching credibility to its maximum. UKIP saw almost as big a jump in their vote as ever before, and achieved their 2nd best by election result.

    Desperate clutching. You are unlikely to see a better example of writing what you want to believe rather than what is happening

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/analysis-newark-ukip-is-feeling-the-effect-of-protest-votes

    Unless you believe that UKIP got twice as many votes from Lib Dems as Conservatives, there was anti-UKIP tactical voting.
    UKIP got over 8,000 more votes than last time, you are talking absolute nonsense
    Where do you think the Lib Dem votes went to?
    UKIP take from all parties, at differing levels depending on the seat.

    You hate UKIP and it would suit you if there was anti UKIP voting, but it is pure conjecture based on nothing, and is laughable given the fact this was UKIPs 2nd best ever vote share.

    Unless you think anti UKIP votes cost them Eastleigh and were in force in South Shields and Wythenshawe?
    Dream on.
    You have taken me on re UKIP in bets, how are they looking?

    Newarks result was no dofferent to South Shields or Wythenshawe,... Was that due to Tories voting Labour to stop UKIP then?
    Sam

    The thing is whether there was tactical voting or not on Thursday is irrelevant. It was a free hit. Labour /Libdem voters lost nothing (and won nothing) by voting Tory on Thursday. it was a Tory seat.

    However come 2015 its no longer a zero sum game. Every seat the Tories lose will take Labour one seat closer to Downing Street and the Tories one seat further away. That thought should insure that tactical voting to stop UKIP taking Tories seats will be minimal (and indeed the same applies for Tory voters in Labour seats in reverse ).
    The seats UKIP win, if they win any, will be 2010 two way marginals. There wont be Labour supporters voting Tory or vice versa there to stop UKIP

    Not that there was in Newark
    Almost all 2-way marginals feature tactical voting anyway.

    Somewhere like Grimsby might well see Conservatives voting tactically to get UKIP in over Labour. (although it's harder to mobilise when you're not already in the top 2 positions).
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited June 2014
    And I'm off to bed, parkrunning in the morning.

    My final word (for tonight) on tactical voting. It's very probably happening on some level. Whether that level is significant enough for us to extrapolate on, I don't think we have sufficient good evidence for.

    But likewise I don't think you can dismiss it as definitely not happening.
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    isam said:



    The seats UKIP win, if they win any, will be 2010 two way marginals. There wont be Labour supporters voting Tory or vice versa there to stop UKIP

    Not that there was in Newark

    Even in seats where that is not the case such as North Thanet, I'll be surprsied if there is any significant tactical voting against UKIP
This discussion has been closed.