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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft

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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    In which case, neither was Bonar Law, as his term also predates the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Carnyx said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    But surely Wellington was a PM (and under his peerage title), unless you mean tthat the title Prime Minister was not formally used then?

    (I was meaning that, it's my desperate and ultimate pedantic defence).

    (Looking it up Wellington was born in Dublin while it was still the Kingdom of Ireland)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Couldn't Obama claim Kenyan citizenship in order to start for parliament in the UK?

    Get him lined up for 2020!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    BTW I think we may have finally stumbled on a workable definition of "demos". If the majority of voters would vote for someone with their own general political leanings but from another region over someone with the same general political leanings from their own region, you have one. If they wouldn't, you don't. Ignoring the consequences for the EU for a minute, does that catch what people are trying to say?

    It doesn't capture what I'm trying to say.

    My definition of a demos would be an acceptance by most of those voting for the losing candidate that the winning candidate had a mandate to speak for them on the matters for which they were elected.
    I'm not sure the US had that, especially at the height of the Tea Party crazy.
    The word "most" was included to cater for a minority of nutters. And it is possible for a demos to disintegrate. A number of our north British posters would assert that strongly.
    The US crazification factor is typically rated at around 27%, so if the opposition only gets 47% or less you'll often have a majority that doesn't accept the winner from the other side. In the US case it seems like the demos disintegrates partway through the first term of any Democratic president then re-emerges when a Republican gets elected. I can see how it could grow or decline over decades but to come and go like this seems a bit odd, so I think there must be something wrong with the definition.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    Mr. Eagles, well, syphilis is very slimming.

    Impiety has made a feast of thee, you know.

    Some shameless cad once used this chat up line

    "You need a stud in your life, I've got the STD all I need is u."
    It was you, wasn't it!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808

    BTW I think we may have finally stumbled on a workable definition of "demos". If the majority of voters would vote for someone with their own general political leanings but from another region over someone with different political leanings from their own region, you have one. If they wouldn't, you don't. Ignoring the consequences for the EU for a minute, does that catch what people are trying to say?

    The construct is a false one, because everyone is effectively forced to state a preference. I would prefer not to vote for someone to fill this role at all. My choice would be to abstain to avoid giving the final winner any unnecessary legitimacy. However, were I to be forced to state a preference, it would be for the best candidate regardless of nationality -that's just common sense.

    It would be the same if I were forced to state a preference for who I wanted to be the President of the World. That doesn't mean the World is a 'demos' that I subscribe to.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited June 2014

    Couldn't Obama claim Kenyan citizenship in order to start for parliament in the UK?

    Get him lined up for 2020!

    Then we'd have a bunch of birthers claiming he wasn't really Kenyan.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Couldn't Obama claim Kenyan citizenship in order to start for parliament in the UK?

    Get him lined up for 2020!

    He certainly has more right to sit in our parliament than the White House.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Mr. Eagles, one can only hope the oaf failed in his amorous ambitions.

    He didn't it, I was said oaf, it made her laugh.

    My chat up lines are legendary, they are nearly as awesome as my taste in music.

    To quote someone else

    "You don't need a wing man, you're going to need a paramedic"
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Oh dear me I've just found out that the song on the new British Airways advert isn't in fact by Bob Dylan as I'd assumed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Couldn't Obama claim Kenyan citizenship in order to start for parliament in the UK?

    Get him lined up for 2020!

    Like.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    In which case, neither was Bonar Law, as his term also predates the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937...
    Hmm, I'm pretty sure it was formally recognised prior to that, just not in legislation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited June 2014
    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, well, syphilis is very slimming.

    Impiety has made a feast of thee, you know.

    Some shameless cad once used this chat up line

    "You need a stud in your life, I've got the STD all I need is u."
    It was you, wasn't it!
    It was, it was one of my better chat up lines.

    My favourite one is this one

    "Your eyes are like spanners, every time you look at me, my nuts tighten"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    JBriskin said:


    I'm going to search twitter - wish me luck.

    Surely, 'Smoke me a Kipper, I'll be back for breakfast' is more appropriate?
    Or, "I'm just going to search Twitter, I may be some time"?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    In which case, neither was Bonar Law, as his term also predates the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937...
    Hmm, I'm pretty sure it was formally recognised prior to that, just not in legislation.
    'The Act is notable for several reasons; it was the first Act of Parliament to directly deal with ministerial salaries, and also the first Act to provide a salary for the Prime Minister, and for the Leader of the Opposition. As well as being only the second time the Prime Minister has been mentioned in a statute, the Act was also the first statute to recognise the Prime Minister, and the Cabinet.'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministers_of_the_Crown_Act_1937
    So Chamberlain was the first PM...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    BTW I think we may have finally stumbled on a workable definition of "demos". If the majority of voters would vote for someone with their own general political leanings but from another region over someone with different political leanings from their own region, you have one. If they wouldn't, you don't. Ignoring the consequences for the EU for a minute, does that catch what people are trying to say?

    The construct is a false one, because everyone is effectively forced to state a preference. I would prefer not to vote for someone to fill this role at all. My choice would be to abstain to avoid giving the final winner any unnecessary legitimacy. However, were I to be forced to state a preference, it would be for the best candidate regardless of nationality -that's just common sense.

    It would be the same if I were forced to state a preference for who I wanted to be the President of the World. That doesn't mean the World is a 'demos' that I subscribe to.
    For these purposes I guess I'd group abstaining or spoiling your ballot paper the same as "vote for the guy who disagrees with you". On this definition if there was a candidate on the ballot who you agreed with and thought had the necessary leadership abilities, but you couldn't bring yourself to vote for them because they were from a different region, you'd be a data point in favour of "no demos".
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    RodCrosby said:

    Couldn't Obama claim Kenyan citizenship in order to start for parliament in the UK?

    Get him lined up for 2020!

    He certainly has more right to sit in our parliament than the White House.
    This is far and away the best website on the whole wide internet.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, well, syphilis is very slimming.

    Impiety has made a feast of thee, you know.

    Some shameless cad once used this chat up line

    "You need a stud in your life, I've got the STD all I need is u."
    It was you, wasn't it!
    It was, it was one of my better chat up lines.

    My favourite one is this one

    "Your eyes are like spanners, every time you look at me, my nuts tighten"
    Good grief, what a terrible line.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited June 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    In which case, neither was Bonar Law, as his term also predates the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937...
    Hmm, I'm pretty sure it was formally recognised prior to that, just not in legislation.
    'The Act is notable for several reasons; it was the first Act of Parliament to directly deal with ministerial salaries, and also the first Act to provide a salary for the Prime Minister, and for the Leader of the Opposition. As well as being only the second time the Prime Minister has been mentioned in a statute, the Act was also the first statute to recognise the Prime Minister, and the Cabinet.'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministers_of_the_Crown_Act_1937
    So Chamberlain was the first PM...
    Prime Minister was listed in the order of precedence from 1905 it seems.

    (Alas, if only I'd said North-West European archipelago instead of UK I'd have escaped Rod's scrutiny)
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Rather than scrolling in vain can someone post when the result is likely?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    Wellington was: 1828-30.

    Introduced Catholic Emancipation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Rather than scrolling in vain can someone post when the result is likely?

    Around 2am

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Clegg on the local news - says Lib Dems need to be 'loud and proud' of the Conservatives' achievements in office. OK, so that last bit was my interpretation.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Rather than scrolling in vain can someone post when the result is likely?

    Around 2am


    Great: thank you.

    I suppose I should have referred to 'the declaration.'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Charles said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    Wellington was: 1828-30.

    Introduced Catholic Emancipation.
    Also invented some nifty footwear.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Rather than scrolling in vain can someone post when the result is likely?

    Around 2am

    That seems likely as they declared about 3:30 at the GE. Turnout will be down and assuming no recounts 2am seems a good guess.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Charles said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    Wellington was: 1828-30.

    Introduced Catholic Emancipation.
    Also invented some nifty footwear.
    Better than one of his successors responsible for a type of bag.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ComRes Poll

    42% say we should leave the EU
    40% say we should stay

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_5th_June_2014.pdf

    Was 46/24 last time ComRes asked the question
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    ToryJim said:

    Charles said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    No, Mr. Palmer. I said I wouldn't vote for Brown.

    Merkel would be far more competent, but the principle of a foreigner governing Britain is unacceptable.

    From the UK Parliament website:

    "People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"

    This is not the US you know. The PM could already be a "foreigner", and indeed the leader of the Green Party was born in Australia.
    Iirc Andrew Bonar-Law is the only PM not born in the UK.
    Shelburne and Wellington were both born in Ireland, before the UK came into existence...
    I see your pedantry, and raise you that neither of those was PM.
    Wellington was: 1828-30.

    Introduced Catholic Emancipation.
    Also invented some nifty footwear.
    Better than one of his successors responsible for a type of bag.
    Brown bag?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    Rather than scrolling in vain can someone post when the result is likely?

    Around 2am

    That seems likely as they declared about 3:30 at the GE. Turnout will be down and assuming no recounts 2am seems a good guess.
    Grrrrr

    Adam Boulton ‏@adamboultonSKY 59s

    Newark bound to join @joncraig @AmberSkyNews @JasonFarrellSky for full coverage of tonight's by election Result ETA 0300
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @SandyRentool‌
    Nope. Not him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There's some fantastic hypocrisy in that poll:

    British people should be free to live and work anywhere in the EU

    Agree: 58%
    Disagree: 23%

    People from EU countries should be free to live and work in the UK

    Agree: 38%
    Disagree: 44%

    So that's 20% of the British population who think that it should be one rule for Brits, another rule for everyone else.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Mr antifrank that doesn't surprise me at all.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    ComRes Poll

    42% say we should leave the EU
    40% say we should stay

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_5th_June_2014.pdf

    Was 46/24 last time ComRes asked the question

    Other findings

    In the subsamples, London is out of touch with the rest of the country (55% say stay in)

    72% Immigrants treated too generously
    78% Immigrants should only get benefits if theyve paid in


    I would have a more favourable impression of the Lib Dems if Nick Clegg was not their leader

    22% Yes
    50% No
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    antifrank said:

    There's some fantastic hypocrisy in that poll:

    British people should be free to live and work anywhere in the EU

    Agree: 58%
    Disagree: 23%

    People from EU countries should be free to live and work in the UK

    Agree: 38%
    Disagree: 44%

    So that's 20% of the British population who think that it should be one rule for Brits, another rule for everyone else.

    One of my friends recently pointed out another hypocrisy.

    Britain has an empire that controls a significant chunk of the world, a few centuries later, the same country complains about immigrants coming over and changing the country.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    ToryJim said:

    @SandyRentool‌
    Nope. Not him.

    Gladstone surely ... though I preferred brown bag!

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Carnyx said:

    ToryJim said:

    @SandyRentool‌
    Nope. Not him.

    Gladstone surely ... though I preferred brown bag!

    Yup Gladstone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    isam said:

    ComRes Poll

    42% say we should leave the EU
    40% say we should stay

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_5th_June_2014.pdf

    Was 46/24 last time ComRes asked the question

    Not a strict comparison.

    This poll is not past vote weighted, the last ComRes poll was.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    ToryJim said:

    Carnyx said:

    ToryJim said:

    @SandyRentool‌
    Nope. Not him.

    Gladstone surely ... though I preferred brown bag!

    Yup Gladstone.
    Gladstone was popular on what is now an unimaginable scale, they sold actual merchandise of him.

    (Of course some of this was down to era. Hence Joe Chamberlain having a statue in Birmingham).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014

    isam said:

    ComRes Poll

    42% say we should leave the EU
    40% say we should stay

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_5th_June_2014.pdf

    Was 46/24 last time ComRes asked the question

    Not a strict comparison.

    This poll is not past vote weighted, the last ComRes poll was.
    Oh, right.. what does that mean to the findings?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Mr Corporeal I've never been a fan of Gladstone much more of a Disraeli fan.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ToryJim said:

    Mr antifrank that doesn't surprise me at all.

    I'm just surprised that anyone sees that as a problem...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    corporeal said:

    ToryJim said:

    Carnyx said:

    ToryJim said:

    @SandyRentool‌
    Nope. Not him.

    Gladstone surely ... though I preferred brown bag!

    Yup Gladstone.
    Gladstone was popular on what is now an unimaginable scale, they sold actual merchandise of him.

    (Of course some of this was down to era. Hence Joe Chamberlain having a statue in Birmingham).
    Mind you, the working classes didn't get a vote ... I came across a report of his last speeches in the Midlothian Campaign. Wouldn't get Messrs Cameron or Clegg into an open public meeting with such acclamation now.

    On statues, they still do it in Glasgow (Edinburgh is not so hasty, it prefers literary folk and Enlightenment thinkers)

    http://www.glasgowsculpture.com/pg_images.php?sub=donald_dewar

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    I like David Coburn, The Kipper MEP for Scotland.

    He's a proper geek like me.

    He calls Salmond a Borg, Sturgeon a Dalek

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/05/ukip-mep-coburn-borg-alex-salmond-dictator_n_5452945.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    isam said:

    ComRes Poll

    42% say we should leave the EU
    40% say we should stay

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_5th_June_2014.pdf

    Was 46/24 last time ComRes asked the question

    Not a strict comparison.

    This poll is not past vote weighted, the last ComRes poll was.
    Oh, right.. what does that mean to the findings?
    It means the Comres panel is pro-EU to a crazy degree.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    New Thread
This discussion has been closed.