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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft polls
There’ve been two Newark by-election polls both of which were started towards the end of last week. The findings can be seen in the chart above.
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Of course, those of us that have been around the block a few times (*COUGH JackW COUGH) know that Tories are the kinkiest of the lot.
Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk 4m
Actual people in the actual government actually thought this nonsense would persuade Scotland to stay in the union https://www.gov.uk/government/news/12-things-that-1400-uk-dividend-could-buy …
Suspect it will be somewhere in between Lord A and Survation.
Tsk ....
Fruitcakes! This is your captain. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The European Union. For forty years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of Euroscepticism and Lady Thatcher, when the world trembled at the sound of our EU rebates. Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our silence. The order is: engage the Kipper drive.
Fruitcakes! The Tory Party doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave the Tories behind, we will pass through the EU patrols, past their bureaucracy, and lay off their largest city, and listen to their secret Commission Debates... while we conduct cocktail parties. Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Newark, where the sun is warm, and so is the... comradeship.
A great day, Fruitcakes! We sail into history!
You're all being silly again.
I'll repost my personal guess:
39% Con
30% UKIP
16% Lab
5% Paul Baggeley
4% LD
3% Green
For, erm, research purposes.
Word of warning, The Tories, LDs, Nats, Greens all provide them for free, but Labour charge IIRC a fee for the credentials, guess which conference Mike didn't go to.
Tsk ....
I think I'll go, and tell the Labour activists that as a Sheffield boy, they should hold a pre election rally at the Sheffield Arena just before next year's General Election.
It started with the dog leaving a puddle in the kitchen for me to slide in to when I went to put the kettle on first thing and it's been getting steadily worse ever since.
This should logically therefore culminate in a Labour win in Newark late tonight.
How are Birmingham's schools going to be run after Ofsted delivers its inspection reports into the so-called Trojan Horse allegations?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-27697597
It's TSE's motto...
"Everything in moderation"
Sadly I'm talking about writing threads on PB for the Newark result.
Would that make you happy??
More likely to be for Smalling....
The advantage of Con win is that it punctures the UKIP bandwaggon.One would expect, in the absence of any other by election win for UKIP between now and the GE that UKIP will fall back in the national opinion polls.Who knows but if it fell back to low teens then the Lib Dems could regain third place in the polls.
The disadvantage of a Tory victory in Newark is that it could strengthen the Tory position in the polls and remember the majority of Lib Dem seats have the Tories in second place.
Overall I think I would prefer the Tory victory with a low teens share so it does some damge to the Tory vote in the marginal seats.
A little more transparency and inspection might be welcome? Indeed, several requests were made about it in Parliament (the rumour that Gove sent them each a signed bible instead has no basis in reality)
Although Labour's internal polls at the time suggested the event had little effect on the level of support for the party, media commentators, and some prominent Labour politicians, thought the rally came over as "triumphalist" to television viewers of the subsequent news programmes.[1]
The election eight days later was a victory for the Conservatives who finished 8% ahead of Labour in voting, but with a much smaller parliamentary majority than in 1987. Widely regarded as one of the most surprising election results of the 20th century, pollsters had predicted a narrow Labour majority or a hung parliament.
Mirroring Labour's poll results, several analysts and major participants in the campaign believe it actually had little effect. Jim Parish, Senior Campaigns Officer for the Labour Party 1985–93 and an organiser of the rally wrote: "the catastrophic 6–7 per cent drop in Labour support occurred before the rally and was – I am reliably informed – known in Sheffield that night."[4]
Some accounts suggest the event only received widespread attention after the election,[5] an opinion Kinnock shared in April 2010: "It wasn't until about ten days after the election that people started writing about the 'hubristic Sheffield rally' and all the rest of it."[6]
In a late 1995 interview, Neil Kinnock was convinced of the negative effect of the rally, destroying at a stroke the image created for him during his period as leader.[7] By the 2010 interview, Kinnock's opinion had changed. He said: "Given my time again, I wouldn't repeat it – but the great legend is complete, bloody rubbish."[6]
Liverpool agree £9.75m deal for Emre Can with Bayer Leverkusen. German Under-21 player will join ‘subject to documentation’ Liverpool beat off Bayern Munich for his signature
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/05/liverpool-sign-emre-can-bayer-leverkusen
They are both consistent, here's what I've come up with (The Midpoints of both)
CON 39.5
LAB 23.8
LD 4.6
UKIP 27
Labour are going to be squeezed today. In a seat they held (slightly different boundaries) until 2001. When they are the only mainstream opposition party. When they have the audacity of trying to claim they are a one nation party.
They really should be worried, whatever the polls are saying.
More equal societies seem to have better mobility, and coincidentally a better quality of life for all classes. (the reasons for the better quality are complex but apparently provable).
Could this not also be added to your "todo" list?
You're getting causation the wrong way round.
More mobile societies tend to be more equal, not more equal societies more mobile.
I'm all for mobility: refreshes our client base. The parties get so dull when it's just the same people over and over again
Remember, I came top in his European Election Game. My preds were:
UKIP 28.6
Lab 25.7
Con 23.4
LD 6.8
Green 6.7
and:
SNP 30.0 (Scotland region only)
PC 15.5 (Wales only)
UKIP highest regional score: 38.8
along with:
FN (France) 23.8
FPO (Austria) 19.0
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/
Darling thinks that Scottish votes are still for sale, using other peoples' gold.
That is a great incentive for people to withdraw all their money from banks.
Yeah - and you think that wind farms produce gold.
I buy Silver!!!!
Yeah!!!!
We can only presume we have no-one on the ground in Newark. Outside the Bubble!!!
Dear team OGH - can we have a new thread please because I don't want to piss off Lord A.
Yours sincerely
Mr and Ms Briskin
On the ENGLISH parties alone I'd have won !
Banking should be boring. It's a utility and should be run and structured as a utility, with commensurate return profile.
[relevance to your post: people SHOULD pay to keep their money in the bank]
I'm going to have to disagree with you there Charles, admittedly based on Channel 4 programming. Anyway - they had this guy called Dave (literally) - and he started this bank - and they said to him - you can't actually do this because it's gambling.
On the other, I'd have thought the Tories will have extended their lead post-Survation, with the better ground game, and will win quite easily. The LibDems might just hold their deposit - the candidate is a veteran at fighting losing battles unflinchingly.
http://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:yow612mep/view
http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/236x/fe/fd/9c/fefd9cc90d58ec69d5c8a8910d6f16eb.jpg
http://www.anselm.edu/academic/history/hdubrulle/BritEmp/graphics/Tariff Reform Punch-november-1903.jpg
http://www.phm.org.uk/keemu/emuweb/php5/media.php?irn=4041
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QtHereze5hA/UVR30ZUtABI/AAAAAAAAAYk/bPpFtGeaHqU/s1600/Vote_for_Tariff_Reform+(1).jpg
Sweden??
https://www.burnleysavingsandloans.co.uk/about-us/
He wanted to take deposits and lend money without having the appropriate capital base to guarantee that he would be able to repay depositors without falling back on the bank deposit guarantee scheme. Additionally, without appropriate credit review processes, he would have been guessing on the ability to repay (although, I'd note he was based lending decision on personal relationships, which is arguably the best way to make a lending decision). He's now got the paperwork in place, and all power to him. The big banks have got so many things wrong over the years I welcome new competitors into the market. (For various reasons, I have a well developed view on banking structure and policy)
And if they were proposing negative interest rates for ordinary deposits, it certainly wouldn't be the first time in history. It has happened in Switzerland in recent years.
"More mobile societies tend to be more equal, not more equal societies more mobile."
Seems the Swedish managed to successfully put the cart before the horse.
You have to admire Scandinavian ingenuity.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/3250/sweden-s-socialist-based-society-can-be-a-model-for-america
* It would be hazardous to assume it is indeed a third party without checking, after the supposedly spontaneous and grassroots No to Borders campaign which turned out to be very long planned with Cambridge based photographers and all that. But I have more constructive things to do tha to inquire into the question of who created the original post and with whose money.
If you don't have fee income to cover your costs, then there will be a tendency to reduce interest on deposits (penalising the prudent) and to chase riskier lending. That's not good for the economy as a whole
Additionally, you also see the ridiculous penalties charged to people who miscalculate their balances, etc. A flat fee for a service - which you are receiving by putting your money in the bank - is actually better for everyone.
But, unfortunately, Midland decided to use an excitable griffin as part of a marketing campaign in the early 80s and persuaded customers that it was possible to get something for nothing.
Serious question - Is Kay Burley currently on???
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/jun/02/newark-byelection-politics-live-blog#block-538c6489e4b01a015a59fbc3
The only possible connection mentioned is their education system - which I would agree is fundamentally important.
Andrew Sparrow
theguardian.com, Monday 2 June 2014 17.51 BST
Lord Ashcroft Polls:
Tories set to hold Newark
Monday, 2 June, 2014 in By-elections
You are going round in circles Charles, stop it before you get dizzy.
Lie down and dream of the good old days when privilege and wealth were everything.
AND THANK ECK FOR OUR CURRENT UTOPIA
Or y'know watch 4 mins of Itv4 or bbcx
but yeah.
Thanks Eck.
I say FMQs went down hill about 6 months ago?
When do you think?
If you are referring to Mr. Salmond, I am afraid his idea of "Utopia" and mine part company fairly early in the journey.
And do you even have an idea of what it is? I, for one, don't.
I am not sure what it looks like, but I am pretty sure it doesn't involve exploitation, starvation, and large nuclear flashes.
Other than that, my grasp on the concept is hazy.
I was talking about Salmond's vision.
Do you have an idea?
And no mention of assets of course. Funny that.
One thing is for sure; if the Scots believe that they will be better off with all that oil and no wars in middle east and no debt then they will vote YES, so the charade needs to continue.
With more oil than Dubai and Qatar combined hard to do worse than now. And of course these countries never gave the oil dollars away to a neighbour to build a new rail link and airport as Scots are being asked to do, along with cutting their budgey by billions and then saying charge income tax at a higher rate than UK to make up for it. No oil and whisky revenue though of course!.
If they believe the admittedly constant propaganda from the BBC they are too poor and too wee and too stupid to look after themselves without the House of Lords and Commons to spend their money then more fool them.
Fascinated that BBC said only a few hundred in Spain against the monarchy when 20 cities had rallies and some went to 10's of 1000's. they hate Carlos with a passion, hunting elephants at a time of austerity did not help, so a swap may help prior to the catalan referendum. The new Queen is a honey so like Kate that will sell afew magazines.
BBC cannot mention any major anti-monarchist sentiment in case it spreads perhaps?
Possibly something to do with golf courses and rich Americans? Neither the Yes or No camp have done much but hurl insults and made up figures about. It doesn't inspire much confidence either way on the journey to the ballot box
@journodave: Obama's talking about Scotland #indyref
@alastairjam: Obama on Scotland #indyref The UK has "worked pretty well" and our interest is in having "strong and united partner"
@jameskirkup: Game on: Barack Obama vs Alex Salmond.
The poll was not carried out by the university.
It may have been carried out by some students who attend the university but they don't know who.