Why do I not believe this is going to be this easy?
Firstly, I am suspicious of changes in methodology by pollsters over time corrupts the data. Were Labour ever really as far ahead as their polling indicated? Were the tories? When you have so few data points this is important and the impression I get is that after each major election the pollsters try to work out what adjustments are likely to make themselves more accurate the next time. As they should.
Secondly, I do wonder about swingback in a situation where Labour never got much of a swing in the first place. As the recent elections have demonstrated those frustrated or disappointed with the government have looked elsewhere. I suspect the Labour vote is "harder" as a result and will change less.
Thirdly, no matter how dorky or bizarre Ed has been the polling has moved at a glacial rate. This is because normal people (who do not spend their lives on PB) pay even less attention than we think. It is also further evidence of Labour resilience. Labour supporters are far more easily motivated by being against the tories than they are for, well pretty much anything.
Fourthly, the benefits of the recovery for most people are going to be slight. For the 30m with jobs and the other milllions of retired the increase in employment is something that happens to someone else. The fall in real incomes has happened to them. And in many cases the newly employed are not that grateful being pushed into low paid employment with limited prospects and security.
Fifthly, the client state that Brown invented to give Labour a permanent advantage is still with us. It has been trimmed at the edges but a party promising tax cuts and welfare cuts finds the playing field immeasurably more tipped against them than it was in Thatcher's day. In work benefits has massively extended the client state.
Sixthly, and most importantly, my pessimism has been endemic ever since Sir Alex Ferguson was thoughtless enough to retire. I want to believe. Help my unbelief.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
It's hard to square the notion that London is a poorer city when its very,very difficult to buy a property in any london borough, even a studio flat, for less than 180,000.
London is not a poorer city. It is a much richer city than it was. But as has always been the case it does have areas in which there is extreme poverty. Some of these are the same as they have always been. Others are new. But areas that were once poor no longer are. There was never and there is not a deliberate policy to impoverish London.
You are correct of course London has always been a city with poor and rich areas. Over the decades some of these have changed and that will continue to happen. Taken as a whole the aggregate wealth of London is now much higher than it was when I was growing up there, but the disparities in wealth are also so much greater. So what?
I notice that neither of us chose to live there. You, I believe from your posts on here, chose to live in Warwickshire and I am in Sussex.
To enjoy London you need to be young or rich, or both (and being single helps).
Married ageing man moves out of London is not a striking headline, and says absolutely nothing about London.
If that bit about married aging man was aimed at me, you are very much mistaken. I left when I was 18 and joined the army, I just never went back to live. Over the decades since all the rest of my extended family have left too, the last by death a few years ago.
Now, you say that London is best enjoyed by the young, rich and single and I wouldn't disagree (Hong Kong is the same in my day, but you didn't need to be quite so rich). Families routinely moving out is also nothing terribly new. However, your contention that neither factor says anything about London, is nonsense. Of course, they say a lot about London.
The idea that London hasn't gentrified since the 1980s is possibly the most bonkers suggestion on pb this year.
London as a whole has gentrified?
If you need to ask the question, you're not going to believe what is an incredibly obvious answer.
I know the answer. Look in the backstreets.
The backstreets of much of London are now occupied by yuppies. It's not so long ago that mews were the second rate accommodation lived in by those who couldn't afford proper houses. The same is happening now over a much wider area. 30 years ago, no one at all lived in the backstreets of Shoreditch and Hoxton. Inner east London (from Brick Lane to Bethnal Green to Hackney to Dalston to Leyton) is gentrifying at a dizzying speed. Our intrepid reporter from the trenches of NW1 has confirmed the same for that area. Longstanding residents of Brixton are complaining that the cultural heritage of that area is being lost with gentrification.
You're missing one of the great global success stories of the last few decades. People come from right round the world to get richer in London. And not just from poorer countries. London is France's sixth biggest city. It's Sweden's fourth biggest city. I'm sure I could go round other first world countries with similar statistics.
Open your eyes.
My eyes see family homes turned into 5-6 flats plus some more in what used to be the back gardens.
42% of children in Kensington and Chelsea are from low income families. Kensington and Chelsea. Try going to the World's End estate and say the backstreets are benefitting from gentrification. Using the area around Silicon Roundabout as an example just shows how out of touch you are.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
People can choose their option. London and the other big cities are trending to complete dominance by Labour because:
a) they're rich, prosperous multiculti and happy
or
b) the political class have been importing poverty on a massive scale and so far it's been concentrated in the cities
In some ways I'm impressed that even after the BNP got absolutely trounced last week you're still plugging away anyway. More power to you.
The Tories are being squeezed out of London because the majority of London are getting more prosperous?
I'll have whatever you're having.
You've no answer because this spin that the Tories are being squeezed out of London because of growing prosperity** is obvious nonsense.
**except at the top
I would have thought that the middle-earning families who want to own their own home are being squeezed out of London is self-evident (best part of £200K for a flat someone said up-thread). Such people are a significant chunk of the Conservative vote, so perhaps the idea is not so preposterous.
A few months ago someone on here linked to a map which was colour coded by home ownership-type (owned, privately rented, social housing). Unfortunately I can't find it now, ifanyone still has the link please could they share it.
"Such people are a significant chunk of the Conservative vote, so perhaps the idea is not so preposterous."
I'd say they were the core.
My main point is for those Con voters who think importing 100,000s of unskilled workers will work out in their interests in the long term. Look at London.
I have more than one card, so I asked them for details and told them the order wasn't from me and could they tell me the card so I could investigate the security breach?
Just to eliminate one possibility, how did you contact Fon and what makes you confident that it was really Fon who you were talking to?
Good point. They should be giving you the credit card details not the other way around.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
I quite like the handle though: "wumper". Presumably from the sound he (or she) will make striking the floor when Labour lose...
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
I suspect a goodly proportion of the IP addys will show up as sock-puppets of regular posters. The more savvy ones will have used proxy servers to disguise that.
You are right - a most interesting development indeed.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
Gives me a warm glow when posts like that appear...
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
I suspect a goodly proportion of the IP addys will show up as sock-puppets of regular posters. The more savvy ones will have used proxy servers to disguise that.
You are right - a most interesting development indeed.
Really? It's not as if there's anything to 'win' by having a sock-puppet army. I can't imagine a more pointless use of one's time.
I have more than one card, so I asked them for details and told them the order wasn't from me and could they tell me the card so I could investigate the security breach?
Just to eliminate one possibility, how did you contact Fon and what makes you confident that it was really Fon who you were talking to?
Good point. They should be giving you the credit card details not the other way around.
TBF there may be some legitimate reasons not to want to give the minimum-wage people at the call centre free access to the whole database full of credit card information, so it's not _necessarily_ suspicious that they have to ask him for at least part of it, but it's at least worth checking...
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
I quite like the handle though: "wumper". Presumably from the sound he (or she) will make striking the floor when Labour lose...
Wildly O/T: I've been the subject of a mysterious sting and can't work out who benefits. I have BT broadband, which includes access to BT's wifi hotspots. BT's wifi partner Fon informed my email addresss that they'd charged me £21 "to my credit card" to upgrade me to cheap global access to wifi hotspots. I might in principle be up for that, but I've not actually ordered it. I have more than one card, so I asked them for details and told them the order wasn't from me and could they tell me the card so I could investigate the security breach? They said they'd refund the payment to my card, but as it was at one remove they didn't know what my card was.
Wtf? First, how does someone benefit (except Fon, who I presume are not villains) by charging a random person to upgrade? Second, how does Fon refund the money without knowing what the card is?
Nick
It is possible you might have authorised payment when clicking yes to this option when accessing a wifi service overseas. Easy to do, say, in an Amsterdam café after consuming one too many 'coffee'.
If this happened then you may also have given your prior consent to the use of a nominated payment card when setting up or "registering for" a parent service, e.g. BT Broadband or something like Apple App Store. Fon could be using the parent as its payment agent.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
I suspect a goodly proportion of the IP addys will show up as sock-puppets of regular posters. The more savvy ones will have used proxy servers to disguise that.
You are right - a most interesting development indeed.
Really? It's not as if there's anything to 'win' by having a sock-puppet army. I can't imagine a more pointless use of one's time.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This is the silliest column i have read in many a long year, i trust you will come on here and apologise when you have been proved wrong as you are going to be. WOEFUL
There's been a marked increase of this sort of post on here recently, mostly from new posters. It's not really adding to the debate, but the phenomenon is fascinating nonetheless.
I suspect a goodly proportion of the IP addys will show up as sock-puppets of regular posters. The more savvy ones will have used proxy servers to disguise that.
You are right - a most interesting development indeed.
Really? It's not as if there's anything to 'win' by having a sock-puppet army. I can't imagine a more pointless use of one's time.
You'd be very surprised at how some people use their time. I admin a very large site where I can see in the logs that some people are literally (in the correct sense of the word) arguing with themselves. A sock-puppet army doesn't even always march together.
Mike Smithson himself has used at least two sock puppets in the past specifically to chivvy along debate when it's been quiet. They were mentioned a few months ago in the context of a wider thread-drift sparked by discussion of Lousie Mensch's contributions here.
On topic, could Rod or someone give us an update on what by-election swingback is currently showing? That model was pretty good.
A Labour win by 2.03%, pretty far from this projection! (^_-)
But swingback lost a lot of its predictive power in 2010. I blame the TV debates...
I thought it was pretty awesome getting us into the general ballpark from a long way out - how far off was it again?
Won't a Tory win in Newark alter the swingback model outcome towards the Cons?
Not necessarily - Con start with a huge lead there, so there could be a seriously big two-party swing - IIUC bigger than the current by-election average - and they'd still hold the seat.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This squabbling will do far more harm than a quick mercy killing of Clegg.
Sadiq Khan writes an open letter to UKIP supporters
Reminds me of the scene in the Anthony Hopkins version of Mutiny on the Bounty, when he tries to make a deal to avoid being thrown overboard, causing Fletcher Christian to scream in exasperation
"WHY ARE YOU BEING SO DAMNED REASONABLE NOW?"
"Take immigration. In the past, we were too quick to dismiss concerns about immigration, or even worse - accused people of prejudice.
We all remember Gillian Duffy. We were wrong. We are sorry."
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
Actually, in the face of horrendous losses, apart from the usual suspects/useful idiots (yes, you, Oakeshott & Opik) the Lib Dems are showing commendable fortitude under fire - in contrast to others [cough]Tories[/cough] who panic at much lower levels of pain.....
I have more than one card, so I asked them for details and told them the order wasn't from me and could they tell me the card so I could investigate the security breach?
Just to eliminate one possibility, how did you contact Fon and what makes you confident that it was really Fon who you were talking to?
Good point. They should be giving you the credit card details not the other way around.
I looked up the BT website and found the link to Fon's website. That part has to be kosher. They weren't asking me for the card info - their (email) reply said the refund was in progress, they merely didn't know the card to which it was being refunded.
Wtf? First, how does someone benefit (except Fon, who I presume are not villains) by charging a random person to upgrade? Second, how does Fon refund the money without knowing what the card is?
Has the £21 actually been charged to your card? It sounds more like the upgrade has been applied to the wrong account.
I don't know. I have half a dozen cards, most of them rarely used. I'll have to wait for the next statements.
Avery's solution might be right - I've done a lot of travelling lately, and might have clicked on a "yes" at some point. What's puzzled me was that whoever it was apparently knew both my email address and my card number.
Oh well - thanks all for pondering with me.
DavidL - where should I send the £10 to BetterTogether? To you or to their website?
On topic, could Rod or someone give us an update on what by-election swingback is currently showing? That model was pretty good.
A Labour win by 2.03%, pretty far from this projection! (^_-)
But swingback lost a lot of its predictive power in 2010. I blame the TV debates...
I thought it was pretty awesome getting us into the general ballpark from a long way out - how far off was it again?
Won't a Tory win in Newark alter the swingback model outcome towards the Cons?
Not necessarily - Con start with a huge lead there, so there could be a seriously big two-party swing - IIUC bigger than the current by-election average - and they'd still hold the seat.
If the Labour and Lib vote collapses tactically for UKIP, there could be a swing to the Tories while they lose the seat!
This is a vital period. UKIP were up in the pre-election period, and the Tories closed the gap from 4-5% to ~2%. How much of that was because of the election is unclear, as is how many people stay with their European party even if so. By the summer we should have a pretty good picture of the direction of travel.
To explain why this column is so far from the truth. Back in 2012 the govt. made a series of pathetic decisions culminating in the omnishambles budget. I live in a highly conservative area and their supporters here are disgusted. People will forgive governments for many things but draw the line at incompetence because besides looking amateurish the govt. made us look chumps abroad. To win the next election they need to poll a lot better but they have reached their ceiling in votes because normal people will not vote for incompetence.
To explain why this column is so far from the truth. Back in 2012 the govt. made a series of pathetic decisions culminating in the omnishambles budget. I live in a highly conservative area and their supporters here are disgusted. People will forgive governments for many things but draw the line at incompetence because besides looking amateurish the govt. made us look chumps abroad. To win the next election they need to poll a lot better but they have reached their ceiling in votes because normal people will not vote for incompetence.
And so they're voting for Milichump in huge numbers instead? Look at the figures, man!
Sadiq Khan writes an open letter to UKIP supporters
Reminds me of the scene in the Anthony Hopkins version of Mutiny on the Bounty, when he tries to make a deal to avoid being thrown overboard, causing Fletcher Christian to scream in exasperation
"WHY ARE YOU BEING SO DAMNED REASONABLE NOW?"
"Take immigration. In the past, we were too quick to dismiss concerns about immigration, or even worse - accused people of prejudice.
We all remember Gillian Duffy. We were wrong. We are sorry."
Time for Clegg to act tough and expel Oakeshott from the Lib Dems. Oakeshott puts himself forward on TV as close to Vince Cable and is constantly sniping at Lib Dem policy.
Now that even Vince Cable is saying Oakeshott's actions are inexcusable, the party can throw him out.
Oakshott is only yellow in that he wanted to keep secret he had commissioned a poll about alternative Lib Dem leaders as part of his anti Clegg campaign.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This squabbling will do far more harm than a quick mercy killing of Clegg.
But if Clegg won't do the decent thing, how else are they going to force him out?
To explain why this column is so far from the truth. Back in 2012 the govt. made a series of pathetic decisions culminating in the omnishambles budget. I live in a highly conservative area and their supporters here are disgusted. People will forgive governments for many things but draw the line at incompetence because besides looking amateurish the govt. made us look chumps abroad. To win the next election they need to poll a lot better but they have reached their ceiling in votes because normal people will not vote for incompetence.
Oh you do spoil us Mr wumper.
You want to debate competence levels based on Blair govt v Cameron govt ? Lead on.
OFF topic. Do we have any Brazilian travel experts?
I've just been offered a travel gig to go see Rio de Janeiro then the Pantanal. Trouble is it's in about a week, so it disrupts stuff.
Is the Pantanal as amazing as they say? Worth the disruption? Or is it just a bunch of oversized guinea pigs in a puddle?
I've heard Rio is definitely over-rated.
The World Cup starts in Brazil in about a fortnight. I know nothing about the Pantanal but would observe that in general South American fauna is less interesting to the uninformed than African owing to the lack of giraffes, lions and elephants which is what most of us expect from "wildlife".
You know how serious an article is when the author of it describes Miliband as Milichump in the comments section. What next Liebore.....Zanulabour. Jeesh!
You know how serious an article is when the author of it describes Miliband as Milichump in the comments section. What next Liebore.....Zanulabour. Jeesh!
The author was a *lot* more accurate about when crossover would happen than you were though.
You know how serious an article is when the author of it describes Miliband as Milichump in the comments section. What next Liebore.....Zanulabour. Jeesh!
The author was a *lot* more accurate about when crossover would happen than you were though.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This squabbling will do far more harm than a quick mercy killing of Clegg.
If tis to be done tis best done quickly. Yes the Sqabbling is probably unstoppable now.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This squabbling will do far more harm than a quick mercy killing of Clegg.
But if Clegg won't do the decent thing, how else are they going to force him out?
But this feels like the execution of Margaret Pole, which took 10 strokes of the axe to actually get the head off.
You know how serious an article is when the author of it describes Miliband as Milichump in the comments section. What next Liebore.....Zanulabour. Jeesh!
The author was a *lot* more accurate about when crossover would happen than you were though.
You know how serious an article is when the author of it describes Miliband as Milichump in the comments section. What next Liebore.....Zanulabour. Jeesh!
The author was a *lot* more accurate about when crossover would happen than you were though.
I take it your his official arse kisser?
Euw. You're terrible, Compouter2.
I have read what he has been doing to his other half, god knows what he does to you ;-)
"What is going on in Tower Hamlets? Three days after the counting began, the borough has yet to return a complete set of results from Thursday’s elections. Counting for the Bromley South ward has been stopped for a second time today, resuming in the morning. Tower Hamlets Council explained in a statement ‘the result is looking very close in this ward and accuracy is of paramount concern’. Few would probably have noticed, were it not for Tower Hamlets holding up the rest of London announcing its results for the European elections."
"What is going on in Tower Hamlets? Three days after the counting began, the borough has yet to return a complete set of results from Thursday’s elections. Counting for the Bromley South ward has been stopped for a second time today, resuming in the morning. Tower Hamlets Council explained in a statement ‘the result is looking very close in this ward and accuracy is of paramount concern’. Few would probably have noticed, were it not for Tower Hamlets holding up the rest of London announcing its results for the European elections."
My cunning plan was to visit Brazil a couple of months after the World Cup, when hopefully there'll be a lot of five star hotel rooms available for very reasonable prices.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This squabbling will do far more harm than a quick mercy killing of Clegg.
If tis to be done tis best done quickly. Yes the Squabbling is probably unstoppable now.
Sadiq Khan writes an open letter to UKIP supporters
Reminds me of the scene in the Anthony Hopkins version of Mutiny on the Bounty, when he tries to make a deal to avoid being thrown overboard, causing Fletcher Christian to scream in exasperation
"WHY ARE YOU BEING SO DAMNED REASONABLE NOW?"
"Take immigration. In the past, we were too quick to dismiss concerns about immigration, or even worse - accused people of prejudice.
We all remember Gillian Duffy. We were wrong. We are sorry."
It's one thing to say you were wrong, or you're sorry, or that you understand people's concerns, but words are just words. If they want anyone to believe them, they need to tell us WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?
I'm still waiting for a promise to actually reduce immigration from Labour. Because so far the silence is deafening.
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias. You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs. Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
Quick comment on the ICM poll of Sheffield Hallam. Some people have been making the point that they directly contradict the local election results.
Interestingly though they asked a specific local election voting intention question which resulted in:
LD 32 Lab 26 Con 18
That means they underestimated the LDs by 6, overestimated Lab by 2 and overestimated Con by 8 (although I understand they did not put up a candidate in every ward making comparisons difficult).
Their GE poll result was Lab 33 Con 24 LD 23.
If their GE poll was out in the same way as their LE poll it would read Lab 31 LD 29 Con 16.
Of course the ultimate sample was only 269 so all of this is ridiculously speculative.
Clegg is obviously favourite to hold on here but this poll definitely indicates that it *could* be a closer run thing than everyone thought.
@SkyNewsBreak: Vince cable reveals Lord Oakeshott commissioned poll on chances of Nick #Clegg losing Commons seat and calls actions "totally inexcusable"
Yellow on Yellow incoming. Most interesting indeed, as Cable distances himself from his friend.
This squabbling will do far more harm than a quick mercy killing of Clegg.
If tis to be done tis best done quickly. Yes the Squabbling is probably unstoppable now.
He's been a political zombie for awhile, now has just been the first time there will be no further chances for Clegg to show the decline has been addressed, or even reduced, so it's time for the knives to come out. If enough senior figures speak in his support publicly, when he makes the decision 'voluntarily' no-one need feel like they were too nasty or that a civil war is needed.
In the local elections in Sheffield Hallam the Tories didn't contest 2 of the 5 wards, seemingly to make things easier for the LDs. It worked in one of the wards, but in the other Labour won anyway.
'''42% of children in Kensington and Chelsea are from low income families. Kensington and Chelsea.'''
I'd have thought that even run down estates are under huge pressure from developers and the upwardly mobile, given where prices are.
You often see old tower blocks taking on a chrysalis of scaffolding, only to emerge private flats.
I accept they may be beginning to happen now, but even then, does that mean we're not importing poverty? The local councils still have to house them somewhere. Just because London starts exporting them to Luton or Slough or wherever doesn't make it a bad policy.
OFF topic. Do we have any Brazilian travel experts?
I've just been offered a travel gig to go see Rio de Janeiro then the Pantanal. Trouble is it's in about a week, so it disrupts stuff.
Is the Pantanal as amazing as they say? Worth the disruption? Or is it just a bunch of oversized guinea pigs in a puddle?
I've heard Rio is definitely over-rated.
I'm no kind of Brazilian expert, but didn't feel Rio was anything special from the viewpoint of interacting with people - like London, it's full of people busily minding their own business, and indifferent to the tourists winding their way amongst them looking for that festive spirit. Obviously carnival time is different.
Personally I liked Lima best of the half dozen Latin cities I visited - poor but colourful, busy but (amazingly) polite, serious but friendly.
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias. You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs. Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias. You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs. Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
You might like to debate this with the author, he's on thread atm.
The poll by Ashcroft is UKIP surging on back of Euros victory, will recede. Betting tip: Sell high on UKIP if the prices move much.
Thats been a surefire way of losing money in the last year or so.
Ever heard of a rebase?
At 17%? And Greens on 7%?
Not at that level.
And UKIP actually finished at the lower end of their polling range at the Euros.
Yes but the betting markets arent under or over 17% are they?
You have to add on 1% to UKIPs EU score for AIFE
People have been saying what you just said for the last year
A year ago UKIP to poll less than 10% was 1/6 with Ladbrokes, now it is 11/10
UKIP to win a seat at the GE was 5/2 now its 4/6
UKIP to outpoll the Cons in the EUros was 11/10 a year ago, it was 1/7 last week
There is no argument in betting terms that UKIP opposing has been a route to the poorhouse in the last 12 months
No you don't. I voted AIFE to take the piss and it seems to have worked, because it cost nasty Nige a seat in the south west. Nige's mask then slipped and he told Guido he wanted to close down the electoral commission.
Result! And I won't be voting for any of the JPF, PFJ, PPFJ or CfaFG in 2015. And not just because they're splitters.
The poll by Ashcroft is UKIP surging on back of Euros victory, will recede. Betting tip: Sell high on UKIP if the prices move much.
Thats been a surefire way of losing money in the last year or so.
Ever heard of a rebase?
At 17%? And Greens on 7%?
Not at that level.
And UKIP actually finished at the lower end of their polling range at the Euros.
Yes but the betting markets arent under or over 17% are they?
You have to add on 1% to UKIPs EU score for AIFE
People have been saying what you just said for the last year
A year ago UKIP to poll less than 10% was 1/6 with Ladbrokes, now it is 11/10
UKIP to win a seat at the GE was 5/2 now its 4/6
UKIP to outpoll the Cons in the EUros was 11/10 a year ago, it was 1/7 last week
There is no argument in betting terms that UKIP opposing has been a route to the poorhouse in the last 12 months
No you don't. I voted AIFE to take the piss and it seems to have worked, because it cost nasty Nige a seat in the south west. Nige's mask then slipped and he told Guido he wanted to close down the electoral commission.
Result! And I won't be voting for any of the JPF, PFJ, PPFJ or CfaFG in 2015. And not just because they're splitters.
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias. You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs. Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
Really? Oh dear. Please do try harder to keep up... with reality.
Yes people come on here to have a bit of fun as well as some detailed discussions. But setting up a profile for this? *shakes head*
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias. You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs. Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias. You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs. Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
Rod Crosby, if that is the best reply you can muster up then you had better go back to the drawing board and try again. The good Lord only knows why you were invited to post such a pathetic column in the first place
Rod Crosby, i now know where you are coming from when you cannot have the common decency of addressing Miliband by his correct name but descend into the gutter with your obvious bias.
Bias?
For four years, 2006-2010 (obviously before you were born), I endured near daily bombardment here, accused of being a Labour shill, when I resolutely predicted a hung parliament and no chance of a Tory majority.
Re: number of UKIP target seats. Writing in the Express, Patrick O'Flynn says: "But now we face an even bigger challenge; to get Ukip MPs into the House of Commons next year in good numbers so we can make sure that whoever is in government you finally get that referendum on EU membership."
Rod Crosby, if that is the best reply you can muster up then you had better go back to the drawing board and try again. The good Lord only knows why you were invited to post such a pathetic column in the first place
Perhaps you'd like to bet against Rod's predictions. Many thought he was wrong last time and said so in no uncertain terms. They ended up with egg on their faces.
Listen to Rod, you might learn something and also win some money.
Comments
Firstly, I am suspicious of changes in methodology by pollsters over time corrupts the data. Were Labour ever really as far ahead as their polling indicated? Were the tories? When you have so few data points this is important and the impression I get is that after each major election the pollsters try to work out what adjustments are likely to make themselves more accurate the next time. As they should.
Secondly, I do wonder about swingback in a situation where Labour never got much of a swing in the first place. As the recent elections have demonstrated those frustrated or disappointed with the government have looked elsewhere. I suspect the Labour vote is "harder" as a result and will change less.
Thirdly, no matter how dorky or bizarre Ed has been the polling has moved at a glacial rate. This is because normal people (who do not spend their lives on PB) pay even less attention than we think. It is also further evidence of Labour resilience. Labour supporters are far more easily motivated by being against the tories than they are for, well pretty much anything.
Fourthly, the benefits of the recovery for most people are going to be slight. For the 30m with jobs and the other milllions of retired the increase in employment is something that happens to someone else. The fall in real incomes has happened to them. And in many cases the newly employed are not that grateful being pushed into low paid employment with limited prospects and security.
Fifthly, the client state that Brown invented to give Labour a permanent advantage is still with us. It has been trimmed at the edges but a party promising tax cuts and welfare cuts finds the playing field immeasurably more tipped against them than it was in Thatcher's day. In work benefits has massively extended the client state.
Sixthly, and most importantly, my pessimism has been endemic ever since Sir Alex Ferguson was thoughtless enough to retire. I want to believe. Help my unbelief.
Now, you say that London is best enjoyed by the young, rich and single and I wouldn't disagree (Hong Kong is the same in my day, but you didn't need to be quite so rich). Families routinely moving out is also nothing terribly new. However, your contention that neither factor says anything about London, is nonsense. Of course, they say a lot about London.
42% of children in Kensington and Chelsea are from low income families. Kensington and Chelsea. Try going to the World's End estate and say the backstreets are benefitting from gentrification. Using the area around Silicon Roundabout as an example just shows how out of touch you are.
Place was full of people from Rotherham. Isn't it time something was done about it?
I'd say they were the core.
My main point is for those Con voters who think importing 100,000s of unskilled workers will work out in their interests in the long term. Look at London.
I'd have thought that even run down estates are under huge pressure from developers and the upwardly mobile, given where prices are.
You often see old tower blocks taking on a chrysalis of scaffolding, only to emerge private flats.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 23m
Blimey. Know it's a guest slot, but this is still Political Betting http://politicalbetting.com/
But swingback lost a lot of its predictive power in 2010. I blame the TV debates...
You are right - a most interesting development indeed.
Wind
Up
Merchant
It is possible you might have authorised payment when clicking yes to this option when accessing a wifi service overseas. Easy to do, say, in an Amsterdam café after consuming one too many 'coffee'.
If this happened then you may also have given your prior consent to the use of a nominated payment card when setting up or "registering for" a parent service, e.g. BT Broadband or something like Apple App Store. Fon could be using the parent as its payment agent.
Vince Cable turns on his former ally Lord Oakeshott - "His actions are inexcusable and unacceptable"
He does seem like a thoroughly disagreeable sort - and one who's never been elected to anything, to boot.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Locals.PNG
Mike Smithson himself has used at least two sock puppets in the past specifically to chivvy along debate when it's been quiet. They were mentioned a few months ago in the context of a wider thread-drift sparked by discussion of Lousie Mensch's contributions here.
Reminds me of the scene in the Anthony Hopkins version of Mutiny on the Bounty, when he tries to make a deal to avoid being thrown overboard, causing Fletcher Christian to scream in exasperation
"WHY ARE YOU BEING SO DAMNED REASONABLE NOW?"
"Take immigration. In the past, we were too quick to dismiss concerns about immigration, or even worse - accused people of prejudice.
We all remember Gillian Duffy. We were wrong. We are sorry."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/478076/We-were-wrong-we-are-sorry-Senior-Labour-MP-Sadiq-Khan-pens-open-letter-to-Ukip-voters
Avery's solution might be right - I've done a lot of travelling lately, and might have clicked on a "yes" at some point. What's puzzled me was that whoever it was apparently knew both my email address and my card number.
Oh well - thanks all for pondering with me.
DavidL - where should I send the £10 to BetterTogether? To you or to their website?
viz
UKIP 45 (+41.2)
Con 41 (-12.9)
Lab 7 (-15.2)
LD 7 (-13.0)
Swing from Lab to Con 1.15%
To win the next election they need to poll a lot better but they have reached their ceiling in votes because normal people will not vote for incompetence.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/alex-salmond-pr-gaffe-football-pictures-appear-to-show-scottish-first-minister-hit-in-the-face-9439760.html
The one of Eck kicking the ball is really 'special'.
Time for Clegg to act tough and expel Oakeshott from the Lib Dems. Oakeshott puts himself forward on TV as close to Vince Cable and is constantly sniping at Lib Dem policy.
Now that even Vince Cable is saying Oakeshott's actions are inexcusable, the party can throw him out.
Oakshott is only yellow in that he wanted to keep secret he had commissioned a poll about alternative Lib Dem leaders as part of his anti Clegg campaign.
I loathe Livingstone and this makes me loathe him more
You want to debate competence levels based on Blair govt v Cameron govt ? Lead on.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27587439
Not one of his more flattering shots.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-27585346
Tower Hamlets being looked at.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01437nb/quirke-1-christine-falls
Yay! Just exchanged on a crappy investment that has been the bane of my life since I took it over from my sister 2 years ago.
Yes the Sqabbling is probably unstoppable now.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-id-debate-with-farage-if-hes-welcomed-into-the-no-campaign.1401207972
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/tower-hamlets-londons-rotten-borough/
Clegg is now a dead man walking.
"48% of party members dissatisfied with their leader’s performance."
http://www.libdemvoice.org/exclusive-poll-54-of-lib-dem-members-want-nick-clegg-to-stay-as-leader-40408.html
I'm still waiting for a promise to actually reduce immigration from Labour. Because so far the silence is deafening.
You cannot ignore the fact that the Tories are polling badly because of incompetence. When you compare their woeful economic policies to the last government there is no contest although you must be one of those indoctrinated in the mantra "it is all Labour's fault" but i am afraid the facts (not lies) do not stack up to your beliefs.
Do yourself a favour and do a little bit of research and the truth will become enlightening to you.
Interestingly though they asked a specific local election voting intention question which resulted in:
LD 32 Lab 26 Con 18
That means they underestimated the LDs by 6, overestimated Lab by 2 and overestimated Con by 8 (although I understand they did not put up a candidate in every ward making comparisons difficult).
Their GE poll result was Lab 33 Con 24 LD 23.
If their GE poll was out in the same way as their LE poll it would read Lab 31 LD 29 Con 16.
Of course the ultimate sample was only 269 so all of this is ridiculously speculative.
Clegg is obviously favourite to hold on here but this poll definitely indicates that it *could* be a closer run thing than everyone thought.
CON 39%, 329 seats
LAB 31%, 263 seats
LIB 17%, 30 seats
UKIP 5.50%, 0 seats
SNIT 2.26% 9 seats
MIN 0.89%, 19 seats
which feels oddly plausible.
Personally I liked Lima best of the half dozen Latin cities I visited - poor but colourful, busy but (amazingly) polite, serious but friendly.
Truly a victory of hope over experience.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100240679/exclusive-labour-1997-2010-was-the-worst-government-ever-and-this-is-why/
I'll get some cider.
Result! And I won't be voting for any of the JPF, PFJ, PPFJ or CfaFG in 2015. And not just because they're splitters.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/27/racism-in-uk-can-we-measure-racial-prejudice
Yes people come on here to have a bit of fun as well as some detailed discussions. But setting up a profile for this? *shakes head*
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/164587/thread
Though that does beg the question of just how stupid you have to be to not even get to Kipper level.
The good Lord only knows why you were invited to post such a pathetic column in the first place
If I thought they were all accidental votes, I would have said add on 1.5%
For four years, 2006-2010 (obviously before you were born), I endured near daily bombardment here, accused of being a Labour shill, when I resolutely predicted a hung parliament and no chance of a Tory majority.
So it's all water off a duck's back for me...
Writing in the Express, Patrick O'Flynn says:
"But now we face an even bigger challenge; to get Ukip MPs into the House of Commons next year in good numbers so we can make sure that whoever is in government you finally get that referendum on EU membership."
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/478364/Patrick-O-Flynn-talks-his-decision-to-stand-for-Ukip
Listen to Rod, you might learn something and also win some money.