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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Milib
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband
Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance?
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Speaking this morning to the kind of senior Lib Dems whose support wd be needed to oust Clegg, there just doesn't seem to be the appetite
Looks like the 'rebels' have only succeeded in wounding the lib dems even further..good job guys
I was sceptical, as were many, of your predictions pre-2010, but you were rather closer than most of us then, so this gives me a bit of hope Miliband will fail.
Mr. Slackbladder, it's the same as when Labour were pathetically inept at trying to oust Brown, or when some more intellectually deficient Conservative backbenchers repeatedly attack Cameron without a hope of ousting him. You've got to be at peace, or kill. Wounding a leader but leaving him in place just harms the party. It's stupid. And it's not like the Lib Dems have an excess of votes to spare right now.
Nice charts, but is the next election really going to be like all the others? I detect a slight difference, unless we can discard UKIP from the equation?
Are your payment details the same as I sent to after Wythenshawe? (You swine!)
A surfeit of booze, fags and special advisors.
That said, Mr. Crosby got the last GE about right and I lost money by betting against his predictions. I shall be very careful before I do that again.
It depends on whose votes UKIP targets, and how receptive their original voters and putative new ones react?
The polls and the Euros and the local elections are all pointing to the same modest Labour lead over the Tories. Cameron's hopes really hinge on differential swingback from UKIP.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-has-turned-into-a-party-at-war-with-itself-9431612.html
"Morale at the top of the Labour Party is so low that the factions are preparing to blame each other for defeat in a general election that is nearly a year away. You would have thought that they would have more pressing business to deal with, such as blaming each other for Labour's disappointing show in the local and European Parliament elections last week. But, no, the party is capable of fighting a civil war on two fronts at once...
Wait a moment, though. Didn't Labour do well in the local elections? It won control of a lot of councils in London and gained 300 seats. The short answer is no. For the party to be just two points ahead of the Conservatives in the BBC's projected national vote share is "not good enough". It was no coincidence that it was Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, who said so on TV on Friday...
There are the Clappers, the sycophants around Miliband who applaud him back to the office after he has made another dreadful speech; and the Ballsites, who are working to ensure the succession of Yvette Cooper, the Shadow Home Secretary, after defeat in the general election. They are obsessed with Miliband's motives, saying that he is preparing for what happens if Labour only just falls short next year. "We know for a fact that he'll try to stay."
I think this is a paranoid misjudgement: if Labour loses, Miliband will be out before anyone can ask themselves why they ever thought he could win. But it shows Labour's problem: that, a year before an election, its leaders are preparing for defeat."
WH
LD: 1/3
Lab 7/2
Con: 6/1
UKIP: 10/1
PP: LD 1/7
Lab: 5/1
Con: 9/1
UKIP: 40/1
David Cameron has admitted it is ‘impossible’ to stop the cash being exported each year by migrant workers whose families are spread across the continent........
Almost two-thirds of the families are in Poland, claiming for 22,093 children. People in the UK are also sending child benefit to 1,231 families in Ireland for 2,505 children.
A further 1,215 in Lithuania, 797 in Latvia, 789 in France, 692 in Slovakia and 600 in Spain are all receiving child benefit from the UK Treasury.......
Speaking earlier this month, the Prime Minister told the BBC: ‘Today if you travel and work from another European country into Britain, you can then claim child benefit and other benefits for your family back at home even though actually they’re not living in the UK and going to UK schools and all the rest of it.
And under the current rules, it seems extremely difficult, if not impossible, to change that. Now I haven’t met anybody who thinks this is sensible … so that is again a really big change.’
The government insists that the ‘main purpose of child benefit is to support families in the UK’.
However, EU rules mean that social security must be paid across borders.
But ministers are drawing up plans for a new crackdown on migrants’ access to benefits to try to win back disaffected voters from Ukip.
The new push, which could see unemployed EU nationals kicked out of the country after just six months, was announced yesterday amid continued fallout from the Ukip surge in last week’s elections.
Currently, new arrivals cannot claim benefits for the first three months in the country followed by six months in which they can.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2632914/Child-benefit-worth-30million-paid-Britain-families-EU-Cameron-admits-impossible-stop-it.html#ixzz32vADmD5f
SeanT said:
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200,000-500,000 dead. 2 million refugees. ELEVEN years of carnage, still ongoing.
Labour's War. Labour's Lies. Labour's Guilt. It is written in every word you say.
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The way to end Saddam Hussein's reign in Iraq was lost when Bush senior got cold feet at the end of the successful first gulf war. The Iraqi army was ready to surrender without a fight to General Norman Schwarzkopf Jr's forces, but President Bush vetoed the advance and the fighting ended. Whereupon Saddam carried out a purge of unreliable officers in his forces.
Had Bush let the advance continue it would have saved a million lives, not least among US soldiers.
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
"ICM poll does Oakeshott campaign more harm than good since shows only marginal benefit from a leadership / doesn't account for disruption"
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
On your graph it does look as though Ed Milliband is the most ineffective LOTO for Labour since Michael Foot, LOL.
The writings on the wall for Labour and has been for some time.
Still think it's going to be Conservatives most votes and seats, but if Labour does lose by 8.4% next year it will surely end up in a Conservative majority.
However, there's always the possibility of a black swan event.
The "who" not "where". If his manifesto is tailored to the Labour voters, will this not upset his former Tory support, and also lead to the suspicion that he is being an opportunist?
Ignoring the Tiger won't make it go away.
Barring a cataclysmic re-alignment over the next 11 months, there will still be the two usual parties vying for government in 2015. UKIP will be also-rans, most likely with zero or a derisory number of seats.
It was my fault for being lairy and trying to tease in ICM lovers that I should have known wouldnt put their money where their mouth was (ICM had UKIP on 20% and I was offering under 26.5% at 5/6)
I should have made just a one way price rather than offer the over as well
I have sent the money over, well done
@rcs1000 I will send you my details as I didnt get that Wythenshaw money from your Dad at DD's
Whereas another poster predicted there wouldn't be crossover before the general election.
IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY GRAPHIC IN WHAT IS SHOWS. REPEAT IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY GRAPHIC IN WHAT IT SHOWS, but what it shows is the reality of what is happening, today, in Iraq.
MODs, if you feel the link is inappropriate please delete.
On second thoughts the link is probably a bit strong for this site so have self censored.
That's why even Clegg and Prescott are joining in the laughter.
Last week @Nigel_Farage came to #Thurrock and met voters in Ockendon. Today @Ed_Miliband speaks to hand-picked audience. Speaks volumes
Surprised that the Conservatives did so well in the 1977 local elections (almost on a par with Blair's 1995 performance) and surprised Labour didn't do better in 1990 when The Blessed Margaret was destroying herself with that Poll Tax nonsense she got fixated on.
So, UKIP will not win a seat and therefore can be discounted, and its votes divided to suit whatever angle you wish to take. And there was me thinking politics was nuanced and complicated.
I can't think of another politician who was once so dominant, and whose standing has fallen so low.
However, I stand by my view that Mr. Crosby is a jolly clever fellow and betting against his advice is something that should only be done after the most careful consideration.
Also, I noted this morning that Rod got his forecast royally wrong on Sunday night, when some of us collected handsomely by ignoring him.
He is often right, but he is far from infallible.
It will pay to keep all options open because this is uncharted territory and it could pay to be a contrarian.
My mother, who is not very interested in politics, announced today 'those liberals are finished aren't they?'
Mohawhawhaw
Just before the elections it was noted that the polls were "all over the place", I still reckon it will be a month before the fog clears.
Of course you can always make the argument that "this time will be different" (I did in the last Parliament for the Conservatives, based on the horror show that was Gordon Brown) but the pattern is clear.
Sorry for being thick, but what is 'lebo' pls?
Will we see the agony for the LibDems continue at 4pm today with the release of the latest Ashcroft poll? Incidentally did we get any YouGov last night?
Not much of a kidnapping target, when they would have to pay us money to send him back...
Symptoms:
1. Expects to be recognized as superior and special, without superior accomplishments CHECK
2. Expects constant attention, admiration and positive reinforcement from others CHECK
3. Envies others and believes others envy him/her CHECK
4. Is preoccupied with thoughts and fantasies of great success, enormous attractiveness, power, intelligence CHECK
5. Lacks the ability to empathize with the feelings or desires of others CHECK
6. Is arrogant in attitudes and behavior CHECK
7. Has expectations of special treatment that are unrealistic CHECK
Where is he !
@jameskirkup: .@peterdominiczak asks @Ed_Miliband to sum up his leadership in one word. He replies: "One Nation." #OneNationTwoWords
Why have you just described SeanT.... to a "T"?
"Jonathan Rutherford, one of the central Blue Labour thinkers, warns: "Labour must now have a reckoning with itself. It stopped valuing settled ways of life. It did not speak about an identification and pleasure in local place and belonging.
"It said nothing about the desire for home and rootedness, nor did it defend the continuity of relationships at work and in neighbourhoods. It abandoned people to a volatile market in the name of a spurious entrepreneurialism".
He also warns Miliband against becoming associated with a progressive liberal class, at the expense of a wider group in society. "In England's larger cities, and particularly among the educated elite, economic modernisation has led to an affirmation of racial and cultural difference, and a celebration of novel experience and the expanding of individual choice."
But he says across the country a more conservative culture holds sway which values identity and belonging in the local and the familiar. Economic modernisation, "the new", and difference, are often viewed more sceptically, and as potential threats to social stability and the continuity of community, he writes."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/may/17/ed-miliband-endorses-blue-labour-thinking
Tory 38
Labour 32
LibDem 15
UKIP 10
but realise it could be a swap between LibDem and UKIP. If Ed keeps trying hard to show his superior intellect we could see Labour go sub 29.
The real story of the next election though will be the asymmetric nature of that return. I fully expect far more former Tories to return than former Labour voters - entirely down to the "Ed is Crap" effect. Former Tories will be (anecdotally - are) terrified of the possibility of Prime Minister Ed Miliband.
And to be honest, so are many Labour folk. Those former Labour voters with grave misgivings have a couple of comfortable new homes to choose from - UKIP or the Can't Be Arsed Party.
Gut feeling is that Rod is very close to the result next May. We still have 4 more quarters of growth to report. Employment will be way above the dire predictions of the Left - and will probably show drastic reductions, constituency by constituency (a very useful tool for Tory candidates). The Cost of Living Crisis will still have some pull for Labour, but be much reduced in potency - and will probably be looking pretty stale by the time it is trotted out yet again. Plus we have a very political Chancellor in a position to offer some very politically tasty candy to the voters.
I would like to know why Dave and George "raised the Titanic" then rebuilt it exactly the same, but without any lifeboats this time, and set sail to break the Atlantic crossing record.
That leaves Diane Dodds on143,000, Alex Attwood on 112,000, and Jim Nicholson on 99,000.
With Allister's 86,000 votes to transfer, Dodds and Nicholson will get elected easily.