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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters
“That’s the news list gone for most of the week, as the vote on the symbolic Eurosceptic amendment in the Commons will wipe out most else, not least because of the unfamiliarity of a whipped abstention by government ministers.
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Would a new Front Bench improve Labour's 2015 Vote?
The peer that bankrolled Labour through the Blair and Brown years has condemned Ed Miliband as an ‘average’ politician with an uninspiring political vision.
Lord Sainsbury of Turville, who has given more than £12 million to the Labour Party, says that he has no intention of donating to the party again.
The multimillionaire businessman and philanthropist said of the labour leader: ‘In terms of political skills, I think he’s average. Average in the sense that I think Nick Clegg and David Cameron are pretty average.
‘None of the three leaders was in the “top bracket”, and did not compare with Tony Blair or Margaret Thatcher,’ he told the Times.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2323607/Ed-Miliband-average-says-Labours-12m-donor--announces-donate-party-again.html#ixzz2T98bcRsa
SENIOR Labour figures are urging Ed Miliband to move Ed Balls to the job of shadow Foreign Secretary.
They want his former leadership rival to be sacked as shadow Chancellor — as he is seen as a vote-loser.
And they have told the opposition Leader he is too closely linked with ex-boss Gordon Brown.
His mantra to borrow and spend more is disastrous, they have warned Mr Miliband — who expected to carry out a shadow Cabinet reshuffle this summer.
Instead, they want party policy chief Jon Cruddas in his place.
The brainy MP for Dagenham is seen to be far more in tune with working Brits with his tough lines on immigration and welfare, they say.
A senior Labour source said: “Balls is a busted flush when it comes to economic competence because of his legacy with Gordon.
“Foreign Secretary would be a big enough job to keep him in the shadow Cabinet and avoid a new civil war.”
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4925102/Labour-leader-Ed-Milibands-told-that-vote-loser-shadow-chancellor-Ed-Balls-must-go.html#ixzz2T99GtnK1
It is not that split parties are unpopular, but that unpopular parties split as members fall out about what has repelled the voters and how to attract them back. As in this case, where the Tory polling deficit and the rise of UKIP predate and cause ministers to declare their hands in a referendum that will never be called: not the other way round.
"It is very dangerous. Unemployment has reached tremendous levels and austerity cuts don't seem to be producing results," he told The Telegraph.
"There is deep unease across the whole society, and it is not just in Spain. We have to give people some hope or this is going to foment conflict and mutual hatred."
Europe's Catholic bishops have been careful not to stray into the political debate or criticise EU economic strategy but the Archbishop said the current course is untenable.
"The Vatican has always been an enthusiast for Europe, but a Europe of solidarity where we help each other, not a Europe of coal and steel. Whether this is possible depends on Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel," he said.
The Archbishop, speaking in the austere episcopal palace of Spain's ancient capital, said the current crisis is doing far more damage than the recession in the mid-1990s when unemployment briefly spiked above 24pc. On that occasion peseta devaluations let Spain regain competitiveness and recover gradually despite austerity cuts.
This time the country seems trapped in slump. The long-term jobless rate is much higher. Unemployment benefits taper off after six months, and stop after two years. There are almost two million households where no family member has a job.
Europe's churches are emerging as a powerful pole of authority, filling a vacuum left by political parties of all stripes tainted by the crisis. German leaders may be more ready to heed criticism from the Vatican and their own clergy than from Club Med politicians.
The Archbishop said the debt crisis is a symptom of a deeper malaise. The roots lie in the "moral disarmament" of the last quarter century. A `get-rich-quick' culture of "stupid consumption" and "deranged indebtment" has corrupted public life. Children have been brought up to wallow in self-gratification.
"This is common to the whole of Western Europe. It goes back to the core issues of moral philosophy, of what we are as human beings. It is here that we must search for a way out of the impasse," he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10052268/Spanish-prelate-fears-mutual-hatred-over-euro-crisis.html
But luck turns and in the end Napoleon lost. Sooner or later EdM will get found out and meet his Waterloo.
" After completing his O-levels, Ed Miliband worked as an intern to family friend Tony Benn, the MP for Chesterfield. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22507000
Or perhaps Benn just have it to the son of a friend, using the same sort of old boys' network Labour wails about.
Cameron is accused of being out of touch. I see absolutely no evidence in his words, or his history, that shows Miliband is any more in-touch. Clegg is slightly better, but only just.
Career politicians, one and all.
An obvious solution comes to mind: SeanT for PM! At least he's lived. It'd be an absolute clusterf**k, but the ride would be fun...
One paragraph of this post is firmly tongue in cheek, can you guess which one?
I miss Theresa Gorman and Tony Marlow (he of the stripey jacket) but Gove and Hammond are the next best thing.
If Dan Hodge was a bookmaker he'd have paid Mike last night!
Yes
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
Rich's Monday Morning View [CARTOON] features Chris Huhne http://order-order.com/2013/05/13/richs-monday-morning-view-19/ …
UK ex-cabinet minister Chris Huhne released from jail - both him & ex-wife Pryce will wear electronic tags http://bbc.in/17jYk9D
"We can no longer blame Brussels. This is perhaps the most important point of all. If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by “Bwussels”, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and under-investment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10052775/We-must-be-ready-to-leave-the-EU-if-we-dont-get-what-we-want.html
As a summary of the real problems facing this country that is quite hard to beat. Leaving the EU is becoming increasingly inevitable although it will probably have to wait until after our country has suffered further damage from a Miliband government, but it does not address, let alone solve, the real issues we face.
So obsessing on it is pretty silly. The work Gove is doing in education and what IDS is trying to achieve in changing the culture of welfare, is far more important.
"ECONOMY IMPROVING
Nobody knows how long it will last, but the economic newsflow is continuing to improve. All five economic surveys this morning are positive, unprecedented in recent years. The CBI says growth is picking up; the CIPD sees further jobs growth; Lloyds’ regional PMIs are the strongest for eight months; BDO’s business trends reports booming confidence in services; and Barclaycard highlights that consumer spending is picking up. Let’s hope it isn’t a false dawn."
http://www.cityam.com/article/why-micro-businesses-could-be-britain-s-economic-future
EdM comes from a very normal millionaire Marxist family.
People don't mind a brisk, civilly-conducted argument - the Cameron-Davis leadership campaign did the Tories nothing but good. There were two slightly different approaches discussed, and the party chose A over B. Fine. But what we're seeing at the moment is desperate party management ineffectively disguised as government policy formation.
Meanwhile .... So no more nectar points for the Labour party from Sainsbury and with the Co-op in trouble it looks like the divvy will be somewhat smaller. Ever little helps from Tesco - unlikely and Asda saving money for you every day - as long as it's not on gold sales.
Where are those nice, friendly and totally impartial union barons when you need a few million quid for a coming failed election campaign ?!?
It's a case of: "Our toffs are fine, their are not". It's ridiculous.
Or arguing for equality of opportunity, when they got unfair help getting to the top. Or helping their children into top jobs in the US using contacts (cough)Tony Blair(/cough).
The Conservatives are, in general, relaxed about people helping out their children. Labour see it as being unfair, except when they choose to do it for their own kith and kin.
Anyway if we get a referendum sooner than 2020 it won't be seven years.
Has Ed bothered to get round to that yet Nick?
Seriously, were all political leaders going back through time always this crap and out of touch and the only reason we think anything of them is the mists of time?
I can't help but think that we need to insist on some real world experience for MPs before they are allowed to even step inside Parliament.
I'm still baffled by Raikkonen's odds. I slept badly, so maybe I'm half-asleep, but this just seems stupid:
Vettel 2.4
Alonso 2.56
Raikkonen 7.2
When the table is:
Vettel 89
Raikkonen 85
Alonso 72
I can see why Alonso might be favourite. Although third, he's had a DNF and that double pit stop for rear wing woe, whereas the other two have finished all the races. But why would Vettel then be so short compared to Raikkonen?
I'm not going to put any more on the Finn just yet, but I am tempted. His odds are just wrong.
I'd say part of the reason is they try to do everything and then fall flat on their faces. It's a Blairite idiocy that the PM can do everything, our version of mid C20 leader cults. When we have politicians who can say, nothing to do with me, sort it out yourself, we'll be much better served. At present we have politicos who think there is no issue where their interference won't make things better, when the opposite is true.
That said, that is still far far preferable to Kremlin-type internal dissent and disagreements where all reports of differences are gleaned from tertiary sources, there is a facade of togetherness and no one really knows who is and who is not in favour or power within a party: ie the circumstances that exist within the Labour Party.
Concatenating the view on here, we would probably need someone who is in-touch, intelligent, sympathetic, hard-hearted, cunning, a great orator, a careful thinker, a good negotiator, and from all four nations of the UK. (s)he will have worked digging for coal down t'mine, been a nurse at an NHS hospital, a leading businessman, a union worker, and a military hero.
In addition, there's the problem that to become PM, you need to have been an MP for some time, and in politics for even longer. I would contend the longer you are in politics, the further you get away from the average joe on the street.
I bet there's no-one in the country who matches all the requirements. Which is why the cabinet is so important.
EdM comes from a very normal millionaire Marxist family.
LOL
Whilst we have the usual suspects pouring out daily insults, this comment cut thro all the hypocrisy and went straight to the heart of it. Qualifies as post of the day.
Sometimes these odds appear to personality driven as much as by ability. That may seem odd but punters often prefer a little spice with their wager rather than opt for a paint drying ride for a few months and let's face it the Finn appears a trifle dull.
Naturally this situation provides useful betting opportunities as appears with Raikkonen.
Mr Williams said there was considerable anecdotal evidence from police officers that the true level of crime is not being recorded.
"Closing police stations and reducing the number of cops means it is not so easy for victims to report crime to us," he said.
"And most significantly bobbies find themselves under huge pressure about how to record crime.
"Crimes are downgraded in seriousness or the numbers are hidden. For example, if 10 caravans are broken into overnight with 10 different victims it will sometimes be recorded as just one crime.
"And a stolen mobile phone will be recorded as lost property, and so will not appear in crime data at all.
"If there is a crime where there is little or no evidence, and little chance of police detecting it, then that will be screened out at a very early stage so it does not appear in the stats."
He added: "With property crimes such as burglary and mugging, victims would historically report them because they needed a crime number for their insurance.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10052668/Police-ordered-to-slant-crime-data.html
Also, to my slight surprise (I must try and remember to, er, remember my title bets a bit better) I'm green for either Ferrari or Lotus to win the Constructors. Might see if I can back red Bull to be green for whichever of the teams wins, although that would mean tying up a bit more money.
Alonso rates Mercedes hopes for Monaco: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22505635
I mentioned this the other day, as commentators made similar predictions.
Or Theresa May.
Or Liam Fox.
Or Phillip Hammond.
Or IDS
Or Eric Pickles
Or Justine Greening
Or Kenneth Clarke
etc.
But don't let facts get in the way of your rants.
You focus on a handful of people who went to Eton. As I have shown in the past, much of Miliband's cabinet is drawn from just as narrow a strata of society; perhaps even worse.
If the policies are not democratically decided and supported by the party properly, then you get to a situation of having a divided party. The Tory parliamentary party does not support Cameron on EU, same sex marriage and probably many other policy areas. Labour will have a problem with their cabinet wanting more welfare reforms, than perhaps their MP's are willing to support.
As Avery is able to see better and better news with every month's trade figures I'm sure he could extrapolate to the time of surplus ?
Surely this event will occur before May 2015, it would be rather embarrassing if a government whose targets included ending the budget deficit and rebalancing the economy was to preside over 60 months of continuous trade deficit.
Is Gordon Brown holidaying in Madrid ??
And who does Miliband's inner circle comprise of? Does he sup a pint with the miners every Friday night, or does he turn up to football matches with multimillionaire donors in a Rolls Royce, when he is too 'ill' to attend an NHS rally?
Tory Rabble.
Not on current showing.
This guy is ruthless
It Ed is a latter day Napoleon, it should be remembered that Napoleon had his bottom spanked at Waterloo by a coalition.
The parallel is prescient.
David Cameron is a latter day The Duke of Wellington and Nick Clegg is Gebhard Leberecht von Blücher
Another day, another debate on Europe - ho hum. I think the aspect of the Gove/Hammond comments (as distinct from those of Theresa May) was the extent to which they seemed to understate the prospect of a meaningful re-negotiation by Cameron (or indeed anyone else) post 2015. I found it strange they were unable to be more supportive of their leader's strategy and while most of this was of course protecting their flank and pandering to the UKIP supporters, nonetheless it wasn't a ringing endorsement.
I also found Ed Miliband's comments on Saturday interesting, Unlike those who read what they wanted to read (and then of course went on their ritual "Ed is crap" routines), the actual words were quite non-committal. As Tim adroitly stated, the key word is "now". On that, he's in line with David Cameron and Nick Clegg. Ed didn't rule out a referendum or even a re-negotiation if he were Prime MInister so those who assume voting Labour in 2015 will mean we'll be either stuck in or become more of a part of Europe post-2015 might need to reconsider that line.
The problem the three largest groupings in the Commons have is that none of them are trusted (especially after the Lisbon fiasco) on this. That said, the line from the leaders of all three is remarkably similar - nothing until 2015, re-negotiation post 2015 and a referendum in 2017 or so. The intervention of Boris Johnson is also interesting - he comes over as a Victorian paternalist and some of what he says will strike a chord with the UKIP brigade but then he makes the uncomfortable observation that the anti-EU supporters consistently fail to make - that withdrawal from the EU isn't some kind of panacea.
So the argument is less about having a referendum now as making sure a referendum happens at some point. I don't quite see how or why a future Government should be constrained on a policy by legislation now. In May 2015, we'll get a chance to have our say at the ballot box (whatever our reservations as to its efficacy).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/12/labour-public-sector-changes-2015
A reasonable requirement is that politicians should not have experienced everything but be able to understand people from quite different backgrounds. I don't think it matters if you went to Eton or your dad was a left-wing intellectual, but if you aren't willing to think about what it's like to be a fisherman or a single mum or a soldier, you're not suitable as a PM, or even an MP. It helps to have Cabinet colleagues with diverse experiences who you listen to.
But too much of politics today is simply fire-fighting - this quarrel, that awkward motion. The reason that most people grudgingly admit that Thatcher and Blair were impressive is that they both conveyed a sense of determination to get beyond daily reaction to whatever pops up in the news.
As Wellington said , Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton.
Neither should one equate being ruthless with a capacity to lead and win elections as Neil Kinnock will testify.
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
This is going to be fun.
As for EdM being ruthless - really? Stabbing your own brother in the back strikes me as pretty cowardly when combined with Ed's unwillingness to actually not tack left because his union friends tell him anything else is unacceptable.
And frankly, even if he's Mr Ruthless from Ruthless-on-Sea, the voters don't rate him.
They also of course want Balls moved from shadow chancellor, at least. I don't have the same feel for Labour's internal politicking in the same way that, say, Tim does for the Cons, but if EdM was truly ruthless, he would get rid of Balls and not just to Foreign Secretary.
I just learned (for me) a new word this morning. Thank you JosiasJessop.
The former business secretary Lord Mandelson claimed at the weekend that a cabal at the top of the Labour national executive was trying to exert influence and warned Ed Miliband he "was storing up danger for himself and for a future Labour government over parliamentary selections". The latest row has focused on the seat of Falkirk West, which will be vacated by former Labour MP Eric Joyce, who is standing down in 2015 after admitting assaulting four people in a Commons bar.
The allegations centre on the way in which Karie Murphy, a Unite senior figure and an office worker for Tom Watson, the Labour vice-chair, has been pushed to win the nomination for the safe seat.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/12/unite-union-accused-manipulation-labour-selection
I think OGH is right; EdM has a ruthless desire for power.
And once installed, he'll not know what to do with it. He'll talk long meaningless sentences about why it's not his fault that it's all going wrong. In private though, he'll probably have a little cry.
We'll be living in interesting times.
But a government of fruitcakes and loons would be even more interesting and it's what we probably deserve. Cameron and his posh boys - more like ferrets in a sack.
"EdM is ruthless like Richard III. He'll come a hell of a cropper."
A Leicester car park beckons .... perhaps Labour policies will be issued on as "Pay and Display" basis ?? .... A fiver gets you all day economic policy - that is, it bares scrutiny for just 24 hours before being fined for overstaying its welcome !!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concatenation
To the extent that a (rather poor) manager once told me: "We can concat those two meetings together." when he meant: "Let's just have one blooming meeting."
Speaking of which - any more news on the Coop Bank? I can't quite grasp how a bank that only has a retail arm has got itself into such a mess and 5yrs after the crash. I'd assumed it was a boring bank if ever there was one.
Far more important is whether EdM is competent.
** OK, I admit it, I put Bush in to throw Lefties a bone.
*** Sir Alex Ferguson may be exceptional in this regard.
EdM is ruthless like Richard III. He'll come a hell of a cropper.
Oh come now, Moniker! I like Richard III, he had backbone - even if it was a little crooked.
rED on the other hand is merely a brotherly backstabber; it's all in the family.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08ce43b0-b8d9-11e2-869f-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2T9sNoOAh
"There may be reasons why the UK may wish to remain a member of the EU. But whatever they are, they are not economic.'
Barbara Brown (There’s a Barbara Brown who is the Head of Equality, Diversity and Community Safety at Avon Fire & Rescue Service. She may be this BB).
Amanda Ramsay http://amandaramsay.co.uk/
Karin Smyth http://karinsmyth.com/
Selection on June 8 or 9th...can't recall the exact date.
With this in mind, as the story is discussed daily now the average voter will gain more of an understanding about how important this issue actually is to their day to day lives as the pros and cons are argued about on the airwaves. Therefore the conservatives have an advantage as they seem to be more concerned about how to solve this whereas the lib dems's answer is that there is nothing wrong with the EU (which I don't think voters will swallow) and labour are saying nothing...
The way the Tories need to deal with this however to stop the issue being spun into a "Tory splits" narrative is that both sides in the Tory party state clearly that the debate is necessary and is for the best interests of the country and that they would rather have an honest debate in public about grave matters of principle and the future of the country unlike labour who are stifling internal debate about such an important matter for cynical political reasons.
By doing this they can look like a mature party thinking about the best for the uk rather than hiding from difficult decisions. Treating the voters as grown ups who want to know the arguments should be a vote winner if compared strongly to labour's arrogant "we know what is best for you, just keep running along and we will make the decisions" type of approach....
If the europhiles have lost the FT , they've lost the argument.
The Sun says Blue Labour (Ukip lite) is the only way for rEd - no chance though.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4925006/TOM-NEWTON-DUNN-Red-Eds-only-hopenew-Blue-Labour.html
"The Blue Labourites would be tougher still on benefits.
Tax credits would go completely, and you would get no handouts at all unless you are prepared to contribute in some way — helping out grannies or tidying your neighbourhood.
They are hard, too, on immigration, wanting a renegotiation of the EU rules of free movement as the only way to stem the huge influx of foreign nationals to Britain.
And, yes, that means the Blue Labourites are also passionately pro an EU referendum."
"More evidence will come this week, with the publication of a Joseph Rowntree Foundation report that reveals just how much attitudes have hardened against benefits.
Fifty-four per cent now believe that if welfare payments were not so generous, people would learn to stand on their own feet. In 1987, the figure was just 33 per cent.
The biggest hardening of attitude has been among Labour supporters.
Will Ed Miliband see the solution for a new path that is staring him in the face? Time is now running out for him. Woeful underpeformance in the local elections is proof that voters still see him as part of the problem with British politics, not the solution."
The truth is that it probably doesn't matter very much how good or bad Miliband is - oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them (that's my cliche for the day). We can snipe and deride him as much as we like (and some on here seem to view that either as daily ritual or sporting hobby) but you can ask the same questions about his quality to be Prime Minister that you could have asked about any of the above (except Wilson who had of course done the job before). I'm not that concerned if Miliband becomes Prime Minister. Very much like leaving the EU, as Boris has opined, changing the Prime Minister doesn't really solve anything apart from clearing away one lot of excuses.
Not an easy call.
I do agree with most of [Lawson's] analysis, especially his point that, for the UK, the single market carries higher costs than benefits. For the EU as a whole, the single market has been a macroeconomic non-event. Its impact on aggregate gross domestic product is statistically imperceptible. If you really wanted to defend it on macroeconomic grounds, you would need to argue that trend growth would otherwise have declined – and would have done so at exactly the time when the single market was introduced. Good luck with that.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/08ce43b0-b8d9-11e2-869f-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2T9sNoOAh
I beg to differ. I think EdM will be PM - he just won't enjoy a single minute of it. It'll be a UK version of Hollande's experience in power.
Wanting to get power and being good at getting it are very, very different from exercising power well. Blair was something of a genius at the former and sucked harder than the vacuum of deep space at the latter. I suspect Edm will get in by default but will bring a whole new scale to the sucking chart when it comes to being a competent or beneficial PM. His will be the administration that really kills off the left in power. Whoever follows will have carte blanche to reform all the crap that has gone unreformed for so long. And will have to do so with a balanced budget.
Arise PM Harry !
It's the economy, stupid.
The Conservative Party is nothing if it is not the partty of good government, and good government requires winning elections. It should leave the childish tantrums to other parties.
Gove and Hammond have no excuse here, it's easy to avoid a question about how one would hypothetically vote in a hypothetical referendum by simply saying "Just like the Prime Minister, I will make up my mind once I know the terms of the EU of which we would be voting to remain a member [for extra toady points: and of course I share the PM's belief that he will be able to negotiate a new settlement which is in the best interests of the British people]". May seems to have managed it. Given Gove's alacrity at avoiding questions about the often-tenuous link between his day-job policies and any know evidence, one can't believe that he was inadvertently ambushed.
Those who are arguing that this isn't a big issue might want to think about Thatcher's reaction to this kind of behaviour: the only choice the offending Minister would get would be which appendage was placed in the vice first.
Under Lisbon the UK must decide by 2014 whether or not to have a permanent opt out on a range of these provisions. The one I was looking at was a sensible provision which allowed an EU citizen to serve his licence period after imprisonment in the country where he had family rather than where he was imprisoned. The House of Lords have produced a very detailed report on these provisions last month which really should have got more attention: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeucom/159/159.pdf
It also has an interesting section on the European Arrest Warrant.
The reason I think this is interesting (apart from the fact I was getting paid to look at it) is that it seemed to me that the government has got itself stuck in a very uncomfortable position. A decision to implement these provisions (most of which are very sensible) will look very like a decision to transfer further competences to the EU. They might even arguably fall within Schedule 1 of the European Union Act 2011 which covers minimum rules on criminal procedure, police co-operation and cross border cooperation.
In short if the government decides to adopt any of these provisions they will either trigger a referendum or will greatly undermine the promise given by the 2011 Act with disastrous consequences. It is hardly surprising the government is dragging its feet on this but the clock is ticking and the clock was fixed by Lisbon (you remember the treaty Brown signed in secret that wasn't supposed to change anything) so it is very difficult to change.
I think next year, before the election, this government is going to have a very difficult decision to make. If Cameron is thought to be in a difficult position now...
You should have stopped at
"The Conservative Party is nothing"
Karen Gillan for PM
The next election is going to be about not who you want but more voting against parties rather than for them. In reality anything could happen.