thanks. i have a copy of the collected essays (though not immediately to hand). always good to dip into from time to time. pretty good for an old etonian
Do potential UKIP/Conservative candidates have to sign up to the ludicrous idea we're going to have brownouts in 2015?
12-1 against. Not likely, but not in the ludicrous territory either.
I've read the OfGem report. I am happy to send you the same stuff that I sent Josias on UK generating margins of safety: email me at my username at gmail.com. Fair to say, either the market for UK electricity is wrong or OfGem is wrong: currently it prices in 2015 baseload electricity costs as rising at substantially below the rate of inflation.
It's also fair to say that generating companies do not share OfGem's prognosis.
Finally: if you're confident in UKIP's prognosis, you will take me up on either of my bets about 2015 electricity.
Thanks for that info, it was very useful and gives a thoughtful counterpoint.
But I'm still not sure I'd be as complacent as you are being.
Markets are an indication of something; not proof. You are saying that OfGem's analysis is wrong; it'd be interesting to find out where the mistakes (presumable assumptions in the base case) are. That's certainly above my pay grade.
If there was a good chance of energy brownouts in the 2015-6 period, how would you expect that to affect the futures market now? It sounds as if you think it would put them up: is that a valid assumption?
My concerns come from a belief that security of energy supply is one of the prime roles of any government. Without a secure energy supply, other things fall down: industries fail, and people die. Everything, from the NHS to agriculture, relies on it, and electricity is an important (perhaps the most important) factor.
No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.
Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.
No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.
Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.
Swinson. Nailed on.
Well, my friend, as you've confessed to your ignorance unlike some on here who seem to believe they are knowledgeable on everything given their willingness to pontificate on everything. I'll give you my honest assessment as 1/40,000 of the electorate.
Jo Swinson will do well to keep her seat. The key question will be how many Lib Dem MPs emerge from the May 2015 election. Some on here might contend one is one too many - the Party will be fighting a defensive election in, at most, 75 seats (those we currently hold and a few others). That may not seem many but in truth I expect the Conservatives will only probably be fighting 200 seriously (the rest are safe and the others out of reach) while Labour will probably fight 100-150 seats (in my own constituency, East Ham, Labour polled 70% in 2010, there's not much point building up huge majorities in a system where bums on benches count, not votes). UKIP will probably only concentrate on 10-20 seats.
Anyway, IF Rallings & Thrasher are right and the party comes out with 50 seats, I suspect that will be a viewed as a triumph and it's possible Nick Clegg may carry on as leader. Realistically, I expect 35-45 seats at which point Clegg will depart and there might be three or four runners in the leadership race. Below 30 and I suspect Farron would probably get it without much of a fight. Below 15 (and assuming Farron is one of the casualties) and all bets are off.
Force me to have a fiver and I would back Farron to beat Davey. If you're looking at contenders at bigger prices, I'd see how the party fares in Cornwall (fair County Council results) and see if either Dan Rogerson or Stephen Gilbert survive.
Comments
But I'm still not sure I'd be as complacent as you are being.
Markets are an indication of something; not proof. You are saying that OfGem's analysis is wrong; it'd be interesting to find out where the mistakes (presumable assumptions in the base case) are. That's certainly above my pay grade.
If there was a good chance of energy brownouts in the 2015-6 period, how would you expect that to affect the futures market now? It sounds as if you think it would put them up: is that a valid assumption?
My concerns come from a belief that security of energy supply is one of the prime roles of any government. Without a secure energy supply, other things fall down: industries fail, and people die. Everything, from the NHS to agriculture, relies on it, and electricity is an important (perhaps the most important) factor.
No expert on LDs (or any politics really) but I thought Farron was terrible on tv the night Rennard gate broke, absolutely awful.
Cables too old, Davey reminds me of Morrissey, Lamb just made that record, I dont think people would take him seriously, Laws is in disgrace over expenses (and are the public ready for a a gay leader yet?), Alexander and Browne come across as Tories.
Swinson. Nailed on.
A labour majority will let the labour nutters into power who opened our borders to unprecedented immigration .
Jo Swinson will do well to keep her seat. The key question will be how many Lib Dem MPs emerge from the May 2015 election. Some on here might contend one is one too many - the Party will be fighting a defensive election in, at most, 75 seats (those we currently hold and a few others). That may not seem many but in truth I expect the Conservatives will only probably be fighting 200 seriously (the rest are safe and the others out of reach) while Labour will probably fight 100-150 seats (in my own constituency, East Ham, Labour polled 70% in 2010, there's not much point building up huge majorities in a system where bums on benches count, not votes). UKIP will probably only concentrate on 10-20 seats.
Anyway, IF Rallings & Thrasher are right and the party comes out with 50 seats, I suspect that will be a viewed as a triumph and it's possible Nick Clegg may carry on as leader. Realistically, I expect 35-45 seats at which point Clegg will depart and there might be three or four runners in the leadership race. Below 30 and I suspect Farron would probably get it without much of a fight. Below 15 (and assuming Farron is one of the casualties) and all bets are off.
Force me to have a fiver and I would back Farron to beat Davey. If you're looking at contenders at bigger prices, I'd see how the party fares in Cornwall (fair County Council results) and see if either Dan Rogerson or Stephen Gilbert survive.