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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Final YouGov poll on Euros and Euros round up

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  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    But not all that small.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:
    How can you hate lib dems? Only fuddy duddy labour types do imo. A lot of people think they are a bit wet and pathetic but there must be at least 20% of voters who actually are pro Europe enough to give them a vote . I think they will out perform their polling tomorrow .Just look at people who are undecided on here below who think they may still vote for them


    I certainly don't hate the LDs, I've decided to vote for them tomorrow myself, but while there may be a 'Shy LD' voter effect, and I think the visceral hatred for them is overblown, I do not think it can be said to be restricted merely to 'fuddy duddy labour types'. Those particularly, but you don't languish in the polls so consistently and face complete wipeout in many areas of the country like they have done and are, without genuine hatred behind it from significant numbers.

    There is certainly a pro-EU vote to go after, but the fervent pro-EU vote is pretty small, and much of the rest of 'stay in, but not very happy about things' to varying degrees, which is the bit Labour and the Tories will get, not the LDs I think.

    Thing is if they are sub 10% and get wiped out in the Euros having had their leader go so gung ho as " the party of in", at what point do you stop and think " hang on, we need to change tack, this ultra pro Europe stance is actually the political equivalent of putting our head in a trip hammer ".

    100% respect for saying what they believe and good luck, but at some point you've got to accept it just ain't happening for you.
    It depends on what kind of party they want to be I guess. Being the protest party of choice allowed them to rise to 24% in the last GE and the belief they could be a true competitor to the big two, but the instant evaporation of much of their vote in 2010 showed that was not what a lot of those who voted for them wanted, they wanted a protest party not one which was prepared to work with whoever got the most votes. Their fighting for the centreground became meaningless, because those who had backed them didn't want that, it seems, they have the other two for the centre ground.

    Either they can change and try to be like the other two, all fighting over the same basic centre ground with some few differences, but without as large a core vote, that won't work unless they change their core positions like that on the EU, which are not popular, to try and tempt a different core to them which is larger.

    Or they stick with what they are now but give up pretensions of ever getting more than 25-50 MPs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    compouter2 And for ICM if they do!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited May 2014
    edit: double post
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    AveryLP said:


    Avery

    Its very gratifying to know that I am in your thoughts when you report the economic stats.

    Also gratifying to have my suspicions confirmed that you Cameroons never saw anything wrong with the economy pre 2008, are desperate to return it to that era and that all the talk of 'rebalancing' was the usual faux spivery.

    Perhaps you'd like to see my updated economic comparisons:

    Change over 25 years:
    Industrial production -2%
    Retail sales +82%
    Government debt +£1,115bn

    Change since the end of the last millenium
    Industrial production -14%
    Retail Sales +50%
    Government debt +£909bn

    Change since the start of the recession
    Industrial production -11%
    Retail Sales +10%
    Government debt +£731bn

    Change since May 2010
    Industrial production -3%
    Retail Sales +8%
    Government debt +£422bn


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    Yesterday in the ComRes poll they weighted everyone who didn't know the vote was on Thurs down to 0.6.

    That was a good idea - except they should weight those people down to zero - if you don't know the vote is on Thursday how on earth are you actually going to vote?

    For final polls, pollsters should first ask everyone when the vote is. If they don't get it right they should not be polled.

    NB. If anyone says they have voted by post then they should, of course, be included in the poll.

    It was Survation, not ComRes with this new innovation (sorry Richard)
    OK - thanks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP still in with a chance in Scotland of taking the Tories' seat — a 1% swing needed from that poll.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    It will be back to the drawing board for some of the pollsters on how they deal with UKIP if they don't win tomorrow.
    The devil is in the turnout calculations
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Andy

    Will cost us over 100,000 votes I reckon.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    IOS said:

    Andy

    The weather is going to kill us.

    It could make the difference if it comes down to a few thousand votes.
    Also people die everyday. I have a feeling that more UKIP supporters will die tomorrow than those of other parties though the Tories will run them close.

    I am sure in probability terms, I am correct.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    Doesn't that give UKIP a Scottish seat? Isn't 13% their threshold? That will be fun.

    It also occurs to me that these polls are coming AFTER the absurd media onslaught on UKIP, so the postal votes for UKIP will be higher (even if the party's support appears resilient, anyway, to this counterproductive attack by the BBC, sorry, the liberal elite)

    It's looking like a UKIP win. This would be epochal, absolutely epochal. Dress it how you will, dismiss it how you like, UKIP will be the first "new" party to win most votes in a UK nationwide election since Labour in 1945. 70 years ago.

    And it will be the first time a non-Tory right wing party has won most UK votes since the dawn of electoral history, in the 18th century.
    We got a last minute leaflet from the tories tonight explaining that voting for UKIP simply increased the chances of the SNP picking up a 3rd seat. I think that is probably wrong but I will vote tory just in case.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    Doesn't that give UKIP a Scottish seat? Isn't 13% their threshold? That will be fun.

    It also occurs to me that these polls are coming AFTER the absurd media onslaught on UKIP, so the postal votes for UKIP will be higher

    But UKIP have been telling us that all the attacks have only encouraged people to support them even more (it has certainly intensified those who already supported them), so surely that would mean the postal votes, while good, would actually be less good than votes on the day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    AndyJS Many royalists will have been shocked by Charles' comments, myself included, indeed a Peer was on R2 saying exactly that, the Queen would never have allowed herself to say comments in public or earshot of the press which could have been construed as attacking a foreign leader
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Bloke_On_A_Bike: After slapping Theresa May gave the #policefed she should've said they fell down the stairs. #Newsnight
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    Doesn't that give UKIP a Scottish seat? Isn't 13% their threshold? That will be fun.

    It also occurs to me that these polls are coming AFTER the absurd media onslaught on UKIP, so the postal votes for UKIP will be higher (even if the party's support appears resilient, anyway, to this counterproductive attack by the BBC, sorry, the liberal elite)

    It's looking like a UKIP win. This would be epochal, absolutely epochal. Dress it how you will, dismiss it how you like, UKIP will be the first "new" party to win most votes in a UK nationwide election since Labour in 1945. 70 years ago.

    And it will be the first time a non-Tory right wing party has won most UK votes since the dawn of electoral history, in the 18th century.


    IOS

    'The euros do not matter anyway'

    you gotta laugh ;-)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    Doesn't that give UKIP a Scottish seat? Isn't 13% their threshold? That will be fun.

    It also occurs to me that these polls are coming AFTER the absurd media onslaught on UKIP, so the postal votes for UKIP will be higher (even if the party's support appears resilient, anyway, to this counterproductive attack by the BBC, sorry, the liberal elite).
    I think UKIP have been bouncing around about the same area in euro polling since before the postals went in.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Apols if discussed earlier, but with both the BBC News at 10 and Newsnight leading with the kicking Mrs May has given the Police Federation, sounds like it was a good job well done.....and about time too.......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    David Boothroyd posts on VoteUK forum:

    "Postponed poll in Blackwall and Cubitt Town - death of Hifzur Rahman, nominated as candidate for Tower Hamlets First."

    http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/news/politics/candidate_s_sudden_death_hits_local_council_election_at_tower_hamlets_1_3609637
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014
    )
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    Doesn't that give UKIP a Scottish seat? Isn't 13% their threshold? That will be fun.

    It also occurs to me that these polls are coming AFTER the absurd media onslaught on UKIP, so the postal votes for UKIP will be higher (even if the party's support appears resilient, anyway, to this counterproductive attack by the BBC, sorry, the liberal elite)

    It's looking like a UKIP win. This would be epochal, absolutely epochal. Dress it how you will, dismiss it how you like, UKIP will be the first "new" party to win most votes in a UK nationwide election since Labour in 1945. 70 years ago.

    And it will be the first time a non-Tory right wing party has won most UK votes since the dawn of electoral history, in the 18th century.
    We got a last minute leaflet from the tories tonight explaining that voting for UKIP simply increased the chances of the SNP picking up a 3rd seat. I think that is probably wrong but I will vote tory just in case.

    And people say that negative campaigning doesn't work ;)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    YouGov Euro poll had a sample of 6,000 according to UKPR.

    Given the rain expected in the big cities, looks like a Kipper win.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    It will be back to the drawing board for some of the pollsters on how they deal with UKIP if they don't win tomorrow.
    The devil is in the turnout calculations
    I am sure there will be plenty of *ahem* viable excuses no matter what the result from the pollsters.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP still in with a chance in Scotland of taking the Tories' seat — a 1% swing needed from that poll.

    On that poll UKIp will easily take the LD seat and the Tories will keep theirs. Horrible poll for SNP.

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
    Well, Africa gave us such wonderful immigrants as Matthew Parris, AC Grayling, Richard Dawkins and Alan Rusbridger.

    Give me Romanians any day.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP still in with a chance in Scotland of taking the Tories' seat — a 1% swing needed from that poll.

    That poll would give Con and UKIP a seat each easily - ie 2/2/1/1.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    If the UKIP figure is nearer Opinium than Yougov, they surely then should pick up plenty of council seats?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    It will be back to the drawing board for some of the pollsters on how they deal with UKIP if they don't win tomorrow.
    The devil is in the turnout calculations
    I am sure there will be plenty of *ahem* viable excuses no matter what the result from the pollsters.
    Without having seen the detailed data for the last few polls, the biggest driver of the difference in the pollsters is their different ways of judging likelihood to turnout.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP still in with a chance in Scotland of taking the Tories' seat — a 1% swing needed from that poll.

    On that poll UKIp will easily take the LD seat and the Tories will keep theirs. Horrible poll for SNP.

    That cannot be right. I am assured by the response to anything and everything that all events are good for the SNP somehow, according to their supporters (Oh SNPers, I joke - every party does it, but not always with the same level of enthusiasm)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    More like it. Given where they polled last time, and how little their GE polling has risen, and how minuscule the impulse to vote will be, I can't see a reason on god's green earth why Labour's share will go up by more than 10% (of the total, 66% up based on itself).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    FPTYet you do have a nut of a point. My staff openly express their distaste for Ukip, in the office, for all to hear. That said Ukip are widely hated in most parts of normal London* so I guess they are pretty safe.

    I admit to being surprised to hearing the same open distaste for UKIP in my office, here in the much more UKIP friendly SW. I found it a bit awkward, as though I do not intend to vote UKIP I have no real problem with them except their excessive whinging and persecution complex (yes, there is justification for some of it, calm down), and I want them to do well. I am a pretty obviously soft lefty on social matters at least though, so perhaps the person concerned did not feel I could possibly do anything but hate UKIP.

    People hate what they fear.
    You can also reverse that statement:

    people fear what they hate

    And some people - from all backgrounds, locations and lifestyles - hate those that are different to them.

    This applies as much to affluent 'progressives' inside the M25 as anyone else.

    As has been made obvious in recent weeks.



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    kle4 said:

    )

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)

    Doesn't that give UKIP a Scottish seat? Isn't 13% their threshold? That will be fun.

    It also occurs to me that these polls are coming AFTER the absurd media onslaught on UKIP, so the postal votes for UKIP will be higher (even if the party's support appears resilient, anyway, to this counterproductive attack by the BBC, sorry, the liberal elite)

    It's looking like a UKIP win. This would be epochal, absolutely epochal. Dress it how you will, dismiss it how you like, UKIP will be the first "new" party to win most votes in a UK nationwide election since Labour in 1945. 70 years ago.

    And it will be the first time a non-Tory right wing party has won most UK votes since the dawn of electoral history, in the 18th century.
    We got a last minute leaflet from the tories tonight explaining that voting for UKIP simply increased the chances of the SNP picking up a 3rd seat. I think that is probably wrong but I will vote tory just in case.

    And people say that negative campaigning doesn't work ;)
    LOL. My daughter is threatening to vote for Nigel because she thinks he is a bit of a laugh. I have explained it is a matter of economics. Does she want fed or watered?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    In this case they can not endorse the winner since endorsing UKIP after all this media firestorm is imposible for any newspaper bar the Daily Express and perhaps the Mail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    NicolaSturgeon Just tweeted good luck message to PC for tomorrow, hoping for some Welsh volunteers for September?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014
    maaarsh said:

    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    More like it. Given where they polled last time, and how little their GE polling has risen, and how minuscule the impulse to vote will be, I can't see a reason on god's green earth why Labour's share will go up by more than 10% (of the total, 66% up based on itself).
    I cannot either, but I've no doubt it will happen even so, there or thereabouts. Just a gut feeling, as poor as those are.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP still in with a chance in Scotland of taking the Tories' seat — a 1% swing needed from that poll.

    On that poll UKIp will easily take the LD seat and the Tories will keep theirs. Horrible poll for SNP.

    Agreed. That is an easy 2-2-1-1 split. The SNP have been seriously hopeful of making it 3-2-1 and will be disappointed by that. Again, as I expect Labour to underperform I would expect the SNP to top the poll in Scotland but not by enough to make any difference.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:


    Avery

    Its very gratifying to know that I am in your thoughts when you report the economic stats.

    Also gratifying to have my suspicions confirmed that you Cameroons never saw anything wrong with the economy pre 2008, are desperate to return it to that era and that all the talk of 'rebalancing' was the usual faux spivery.

    Perhaps you'd like to see my updated economic comparisons:

    Change over 25 years:
    Industrial production -2%
    Retail sales +82%
    Government debt +£1,115bn

    Change since the end of the last millenium
    Industrial production -14%
    Retail Sales +50%
    Government debt +£909bn

    Change since the start of the recession
    Industrial production -11%
    Retail Sales +10%
    Government debt +£731bn

    Change since May 2010
    Industrial production -3%
    Retail Sales +8%
    Government debt +£422bn


    Evening, ar.

    Strong evidence of rebalancing in the post May 2010 figures.

    You really must separate out manufacturing from industrial as the latter is much distorted by North Sea Oil and Gas extraction making it near useless in this type of comparison.

    And with manufacturing it would also be useful to see services.

    On debt, central government net cash requirement or even the more direct DMO statistics would improve on your "Government Debt".

    And finally, I am always thinking of you when I report government statistics!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sunder Katwala ‏@sundersays · 3 mins
    13% think media have pro-Ukip bias; 47% think anti-Ukip bias; 20% fair and balanced @yougov http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/20/voters-think-media-more-biased-against-UKIP/

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Alan Johnson won the Orwell prize for literature for 'This Boy!'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    AndyJS Won't UKIP take the LDs seat anyway?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    David Boothroyd posts on VoteUK forum:

    "Postponed poll in Blackwall and Cubitt Town - death of Hifzur Rahman, nominated as candidate for Tower Hamlets First."

    http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/news/politics/candidate_s_sudden_death_hits_local_council_election_at_tower_hamlets_1_3609637

    Any relation to mayor of Tower Hamlets Lutfur Rahman?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    I doubt they think it's close but they can't endorse Ukip after slagging so much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Speedy said:

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    In this case they can not endorse the winner since endorsing UKIP after all this media firestorm is imposible for any newspaper bar the Daily Express and perhaps the Mail.
    The Telegraph could do it as a vast apology to their readership, sending many of them into quivering paroxysms of joy.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick · 3 mins
    Thursday's i front page: "‘Complacent’ Labour to hold crisis talks over Ukip threat" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/rInRiBM3Bn

    Interesting - EU referendum on the list ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've always thought no party would reach 30% in the Euros and I'd still be very surprised if it happens with so many parties on the ballot paper.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I'm happy for UKIP to win tomorrow, as even though I do not support their view I think they are closest to representing British opinion on the EU at least (many like myself, might favour staying in if change can be assured, but let's be honest, there is no chance of that happening in a significant capacity, the bureaucrats have made that clear), but I almost wish they didn't if only to confound what is now the expectation they will. What a laugh it would be. Still a major achievement for them, of course, but many a triumphant piece of punditry would have to be hastily redrafted.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    I'll be turning out tomorrow after work to vote Green in the Euros and Conservative in the locals. The Green vote is a personal vote because the lead local candidate has impressed me. At the moment I think I'm probably on course to vote Conservative again in the GE next year.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    If the UKIP figure is nearer Opinium than Yougov, they surely then should pick up plenty of council seats?

    Not necessarily. Their vote could be evenly spread in such a way that they win surprisingly few.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    How many immigrants per year would UKIP want in their controlled immigration scheme?

    How would this affect family reunions, asylum seekers and students?

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If that Scottish poll is right it means UKIP getting half as many votes as the SNP which would be a pretty bracing result for Salmond.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014

    AveryLP said:


    Avery

    Its very gratifying to know that I am in your thoughts when you report the economic stats.

    Also gratifying to have my suspicions confirmed that you Cameroons never saw anything wrong with the economy pre 2008, are desperate to return it to that era and that all the talk of 'rebalancing' was the usual faux spivery.

    Perhaps you'd like to see my updated economic comparisons:

    Change over 25 years:
    Industrial production -2%
    Retail sales +82%
    Government debt +£1,115bn

    Change since the end of the last millenium
    Industrial production -14%
    Retail Sales +50%
    Government debt +£909bn

    Change since the start of the recession
    Industrial production -11%
    Retail Sales +10%
    Government debt +£731bn

    Change since May 2010
    Industrial production -3%
    Retail Sales +8%
    Government debt +£422bn


    Kinda proves the point government deficits are there to increase retail sales and nothing else.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    If the UKIP figure is nearer Opinium than Yougov, they surely then should pick up plenty of council seats?

    Not necessarily. Their vote could be evenly spread in such a way that they win surprisingly few.
    Even then, if they win more that 100 seats and where they win those seats should give an early indication.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @SeanT The @journomummy was an editor covering the BBC's General Election Coverage in 2010, and had worked in their studio in Milibank. It is disingenuous to keep claiming it was a personal tweet - whilst proclaiming she works for an 'impartial' news organisation.

    She ought to have known better, but Stephanie Flanders also got worked up when she tweeted her contempt for Osborne's budget onto the BBC website.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Speedy said:

    AveryLP said:


    Avery

    Its very gratifying to know that I am in your thoughts when you report the economic stats.

    Also gratifying to have my suspicions confirmed that you Cameroons never saw anything wrong with the economy pre 2008, are desperate to return it to that era and that all the talk of 'rebalancing' was the usual faux spivery.

    Perhaps you'd like to see my updated economic comparisons:

    Change over 25 years:
    Industrial production -2%
    Retail sales +82%
    Government debt +£1,115bn

    Change since the end of the last millenium
    Industrial production -14%
    Retail Sales +50%
    Government debt +£909bn

    Change since the start of the recession
    Industrial production -11%
    Retail Sales +10%
    Government debt +£731bn

    Change since May 2010
    Industrial production -3%
    Retail Sales +8%
    Government debt +£422bn


    Kinda proves the point government deficits are there to increase retail sales and nothing else.
    In the 1970s government borrowed money to subsidise British factories.

    Now they borrow money to subsidise Chinese factories via retail sales.
  • Off to Amsterdam at 5am so will miss all the fun. Looks like a big UKIP win though. The bit after that will be the most interesting. What effect will it have? Is it the start of something or a cathartic lashing out before the serious stuff begins? One thing is sure: none of the other parties will get very far by trying to out-UKIP UKIP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newsnight report from Kingston-upon-Thames.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Just want to wish all PB posters and lurkers who are standing in elections tomorrow all the best, it wouldn't happen without you all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Off to Amsterdam at 5am so will miss all the fun. Looks like a big UKIP win though. The bit after that will be the most interesting. What effect will it have? Is it the start of something or a cathartic lashing out before the serious stuff begins? One thing is sure: none of the other parties will get very far by trying to out-UKIP UKIP.

    Yes, it's curious that particularly on the Tory side many commentators seem to think that will work, they they can occupy the UKIP ground and that will displace UKIP somehow. Even though it is not a strategy which will work, Cameron was probably right to try and go for the large group of people who dislike the EU but fear leaving it, rather than try and just be UKIP.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 14m
    Career defining MT "@gabyhinsliff: Finally got time to watch May speech to Police Fed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494 … & it's astonishing"

    Stonking stuff from May, shooting fish in a barrel really but no-one's had the balls to do it before.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    David Boothroyd posts on VoteUK forum:

    "Postponed poll in Blackwall and Cubitt Town - death of Hifzur Rahman, nominated as candidate for Tower Hamlets First."

    http://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/news/politics/candidate_s_sudden_death_hits_local_council_election_at_tower_hamlets_1_3609637

    Any relation to mayor of Tower Hamlets Lutfur Rahman?
    I don't know.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 14m
    Career defining MT "@gabyhinsliff: Finally got time to watch May speech to Police Fed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494 … & it's astonishing"

    Stonking stuff from May, shooting fish in a barrel really but no-one's had the balls to do it before.

    Gaby Hinsliff's reply is striking too: Utterly. can't think of another Cabinet minister who would make a speech like it, to their equivalent audience

    Worth watching:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
    Homosexuals like yourself get hysterical about the mild, wistful, pathetically tepid 1970s homophobia evinced by a few old Kippers, yet they entirely and utterly ignore the violent, serious, menacing, potentially lethal homophobia evinced by hundreds of thousands of Muslim immigrants.

    Funny, that.
    I do not ignore it. Which is more likely to top the Euro polls tomorrow, however?
    No, you ignore it, because you are an intellectual coward.

    Are UKIP running schools where they teach their creed of being very very mildly offended by homosexuality?

    No.

    Are Muslims running schools where they teach outright Koranic homophobia? Yes, across the country, and in Madrasas.

    Are you likely to be beaten up by Roger Helmer and his septegenarian friends if you hold hands with your boyfriend in Guildford or Lincoln?

    No.

    Are you likely to be beaten up by Muslim gangs if you hold hands with your boyfriend in Newham or Tower Hamlets?

    Yes.

    Yet you focus on UKIP.

    It is decadence and cowardice, it is what Pym Fortuyn predicted, and you need to stop being an idiot.
    Don't be so infantile. Which party has a candidate that wanted to shoot gay men?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    AveryLP said:



    You really must separate out manufacturing from industrial as the latter is much distorted by North Sea Oil and Gas extraction making it near useless in this type of comparison.

    I do enjoy the way you Cameroons are so desperate to separate out NSOG.

    That it is in decline is no surprise and has been predicted to be so for decades - when NSOG came online in the 1970s it was only expected to last 30 years.

    Perhaps you could tell me what Cameron and Osborne planned to replace diminishing NSOG output with ?

    As far as I can tell the tax revenues were to be replaced by rising house prices and the energy output by windmills.

    Basing government strategy on the mentality of Notting Hill dinner parties has proved to be a somewhat flawed idea.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 14m
    Career defining MT "@gabyhinsliff: Finally got time to watch May speech to Police Fed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494 … & it's astonishing"

    Stonking stuff from May, shooting fish in a barrel really but no-one's had the balls to do it before.

    That is really excellent stuff. May looks a seriously good bet for tory leader if the election goes pear shaped.

  • dr_spyn said:

    @SeanT The @journomummy was an editor covering the BBC's General Election Coverage in 2010, and had worked in their studio in Milibank. It is disingenuous to keep claiming it was a personal tweet - whilst proclaiming she works for an 'impartial' news organisation.

    She ought to have known better, but Stephanie Flanders also got worked up when she tweeted her contempt for Osborne's budget onto the BBC website.

    She should be fired. In 2010 she was working for the bloke who is now Cameron's director of communications. Osborne and Boris both employ former BBC news big shots. They kept their views to themselves. She should have done. It's inexcusable arrogance.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If UKIP have any sense they will have put some money aside to pay for full page adverts in every paper showing the ballot paper and highlighting that UKIP are at the bottom with a tick/cross in the box

    Im anticipating the "If UKIP have any sense..." wisecracks



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 14m
    Career defining MT "@gabyhinsliff: Finally got time to watch May speech to Police Fed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494 … & it's astonishing"

    Stonking stuff from May, shooting fish in a barrel really but no-one's had the balls to do it before.

    That is really excellent stuff. May looks a seriously good bet for tory leader if the election goes pear shaped.

    It's a hugely impressive speech. For the first time, I've seen her as a leader.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    PB is wonderful. The spat on the last thread between antifrank, talking sense, and Richard T plus Sean F, was a classic.

    UKIP supporters claiming with a straight face that UKIP is a pro-immigration party, wanting only to reduce the number of Romanians and Bulgarians so they can up the quota of hard-working Ghanians, Nigerians, Somalians, and Pakistanis? Really?

    Let's just say that this interpretation of UKIP's position would come as a very great surprise to at least 95%, perhaps 99%, of those voting UKIP tomorrow.

    As antifrank astutely observed a few weeks ago, it does seem odd that a party which ostensibly is particularly concerned about EU immigration is so obsessed with Islam.

    And even odder that they claim to be a party of plain-speaking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    isam said:

    If UKIP have any sense they will have put some money aside to pay for full page adverts in every paper showing the ballot paper and highlighting that UKIP are at the bottom with a tick/cross in the box

    Im anticipating the "If UKIP have any sense..." wisecracks

    Sounds like a waste of money to me. Sure, some people may end up making the mistake, but if people were already at risk of doing so, a full page advert in a paper showing the correct ballot paper location would likely not be effective in any case.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    antifrank said:

    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
    Homosexuals like yourself get hysterical about the mild, wistful, pathetically tepid 1970s homophobia evinced by a few old Kippers, yet they entirely and utterly ignore the violent, serious, menacing, potentially lethal homophobia evinced by hundreds of thousands of Muslim immigrants.

    Funny, that.
    I do not ignore it. Which is more likely to top the Euro polls tomorrow, however?
    No, you ignore it, because you are an intellectual coward.

    Are UKIP running schools where they teach their creed of being very very mildly offended by homosexuality?

    No.

    Are Muslims running schools where they teach outright Koranic homophobia? Yes, across the country, and in Madrasas.

    Are you likely to be beaten up by Roger Helmer and his septegenarian friends if you hold hands with your boyfriend in Guildford or Lincoln?

    No.

    Are you likely to be beaten up by Muslim gangs if you hold hands with your boyfriend in Newham or Tower Hamlets?

    Yes.

    Yet you focus on UKIP.

    It is decadence and cowardice, it is what Pym Fortuyn predicted, and you need to stop being an idiot.
    Don't be so infantile. Which party has a candidate that wanted to shoot gay men?
    Hmm, Labour in Tower Hamlets is probably pretty homophobic. A well placed camera/mic combo would give us a lot of insight as to how gay people would be treated...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    fitalass said:

    Just want to wish all PB posters and lurkers who are standing in elections tomorrow all the best, it wouldn't happen without you all.

    Well said Fitalass. Democracy is important, even the Euros I suppose. Local Democracy certainly is.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
    There is no need for more or less immigration from any part of the world in particular when the criteria for entry is a skillset that is beneficial to the UK

    Just select the best without looking at where they are from

    Rather than allowing the worst in as long as they are from an EU province like us

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Apols if mentioned, but two interesting snippets:
    1. YouGov is predicting this seat count: Con 14-17, Lab 21-25, LD 2-3, UKIP 21-23, Green 3-6. Apparently even a semi-PR system favouring Labour because of vote bunching. But that's on a 1% lead without turnout weighting - we'll be doing well if we get our vote out for the Euros in the rain, though it's mostly clearing in the evening.

    2. Tonight's Westminster YG, just for completeness: 36/33/13/9 (Lab/Con/UKIP/LD)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    PB is wonderful. The spat on the last thread between antifrank, talking sense, and Richard T plus Sean F, was a classic.

    UKIP supporters claiming with a straight face that UKIP is a pro-immigration party, wanting only to reduce the number of Romanians and Bulgarians so they can up the quota of hard-working Ghanians, Nigerians, Somalians, and Pakistanis? Really?

    Let's just say that this interpretation of UKIP's position would come as a very great surprise to at least 95%, perhaps 99%, of those voting UKIP tomorrow.

    As antifrank astutely observed a few weeks ago, it does seem odd that a party which ostensibly is particularly concerned about EU immigration is so obsessed with Islam.

    And even odder that they claim to be a party of plain-speaking.

    "it does seem odd that a party which ostensibly is particularly concerned about EU immigration is so obsessed with Islam"

    The political class' 1000 foot high, glowing pink neon double standard over islam is one of the things that defines the political class.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    Speedy said:

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    In this case they can not endorse the winner since endorsing UKIP after all this media firestorm is imposible for any newspaper bar the Daily Express and perhaps the Mail.
    Good point - quite honestly since the Sun went behind the pay-wall, I don't think I've seen a single article on the kippers or anything else linked to them on PB - have they been anti Ukip in your opinion?

    update - cheers Mr Jones, just read your reply.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    antifrank said:

    DavidL said:

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 14m
    Career defining MT "@gabyhinsliff: Finally got time to watch May speech to Police Fed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494 … & it's astonishing"

    Stonking stuff from May, shooting fish in a barrel really but no-one's had the balls to do it before.

    That is really excellent stuff. May looks a seriously good bet for tory leader if the election goes pear shaped.

    It's a hugely impressive speech. For the first time, I've seen her as a leader.
    And backed up with action too in removing a seriously weird public subsidy as well as setting a time limit for reform. I fear the idiots behind plebgate may be finding their collection of Christmas cards somewhat diminished this year.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    welshowl said:

    Thing is if they are sub 10% and get wiped out in the Euros having had their leader go so gung ho as " the party of in", at what point do you stop and think " hang on, we need to change tack, this ultra pro Europe stance is actually the political equivalent of putting our head in a trip hammer "..

    That is a very good point, of some betting significance. In the event of a hung parliament where the arithmetic again points to a Con/LD coalition, would they really crash the government on the principle of denying a referendum?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014

    Speedy said:

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    In this case they can not endorse the winner since endorsing UKIP after all this media firestorm is imposible for any newspaper bar the Daily Express and perhaps the Mail.
    Good point - quite honestly since the Sun went behind the pay-wall, I don't think I've seen a single article on the kippers or anything else linked to them on PB - have they been anti Ukip in your opinion?
    Since they support the government position mostly and they are right wingers I think they are torn apart between their hearts and their minds.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    AveryLP said:


    On debt, central government net cash requirement or even the more direct DMO statistics would improve on your "Government Debt".

    If I'd adjusted for the Maxwell style Royal Mail pension fund accounting it would have increased government debt by £30bn+.

    Then there's the issue of household debt - at a guess another trillion quid increase during the last generation - and hundreds of billions of off balance sheet government debt

    The UK has had the most enormous and unfunded consumer spending splurge during the last generation.

    This has been encouraged by successive governments to keep electorates happy.

    At some point an end will be forced upon us and that reality will have ugly consequences.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    If UKIP have any sense they will have put some money aside to pay for full page adverts in every paper showing the ballot paper and highlighting that UKIP are at the bottom with a tick/cross in the box

    Im anticipating the "If UKIP have any sense..." wisecracks

    Sounds like a waste of money to me. Sure, some people may end up making the mistake, but if people were already at risk of doing so, a full page advert in a paper showing the correct ballot paper location would likely not be effective in any case.

    Not really.. many people will see the ballot paper for the first time at the polling station, and tick the wrong box without looking any further. Why not tell them in advance where UKIP are?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    fitalass said:

    Just want to wish all PB posters and lurkers who are standing in elections tomorrow all the best, it wouldn't happen without you all.

    Well said Fitalass, may I also extend my best wishes to all those taking part in Thursday's fun.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    Speedy said:

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    In this case they can not endorse the winner since endorsing UKIP after all this media firestorm is imposible for any newspaper bar the Daily Express and perhaps the Mail.

    Good point - quite honestly since the Sun went behind the pay-wall, I don't think I've seen a single article on the kippers or anything else linked to them on PB - have they been anti Ukip in your opinion?

    update - cheers Mr Jones, just read your reply.
    I for one am very surprised at The Sun's recent take on UKIP.

    I dont buy any paper, but when I go to the Cafe I read The Sun. Until May, it has read like a UKIP pamphlet, endorsing their immigration stance in articles and editorials, and portraying EU immigration as a bad thing.

    I would have been prepared to back them endorsing UKIP at the GE at 6/4.

    So I got that wrong! Their volte face has been remarkable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    If UKIP have any sense they will have put some money aside to pay for full page adverts in every paper showing the ballot paper and highlighting that UKIP are at the bottom with a tick/cross in the box

    Im anticipating the "If UKIP have any sense..." wisecracks

    Sounds like a waste of money to me. Sure, some people may end up making the mistake, but if people were already at risk of doing so, a full page advert in a paper showing the correct ballot paper location would likely not be effective in any case.

    Not really.. many people wiull see the ballot paper for the first time at the polling station, and tick the wrong box without looking any further. Why not tell them in advance where UKIP are?
    Why not just put it in a strapline on the leaflets like AIFE did then? Not everyone gets papers, but you can put those through every door as already planned.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Imagine the scene, you are a simple voter minding your own business then suddenly comes the PM smilling and says straight to your face "Trust me". A sure vote winner.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10848066/Trust-me-no-need-to-vote-Ukip-says-David-Cameron.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:


    Are there teams of 70 something vaguely Tory Englishmen trying to push walls onto gay people because of some deeply held ideology?

    No.

    Is there a country, a culture, a billion strong civilisation which believes gays should be executed that way?

    Yes.

    And we import 100,000s of people from that latter culture, even as pathetic fools like you bleat about the former.

    You are a coward.

    You are defending a party that is likely to top the polls tomorrow and whose leader defends the right of its candidates to be anti-gay. Instead of invoking threats from 5000 miles away, I will prefer to concentrate on the bigotry that is being openly expressed here and now by silly old fools that you are condoning.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 14m
    Career defining MT "@gabyhinsliff: Finally got time to watch May speech to Police Fed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27504494 … & it's astonishing"

    Stonking stuff from May, shooting fish in a barrel really but no-one's had the balls to do it before.

    Best quote of the day.

    May - “We said we’d reduce this spending from £320,000 to £190,000 a year but I can announce today this funding will be stopped altogether from August.”

    She could have added 'and you only have yourselves to blame' arf.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Here is a thing not to be proud of..

    Tomorrow I am going to a place called Botteston, which I believe is in Leicestershire

    I think that still means I have only been North of Essex less than ten times in my 39 years
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,593
    edited May 2014

    welshowl said:

    Thing is if they are sub 10% and get wiped out in the Euros having had their leader go so gung ho as " the party of in", at what point do you stop and think " hang on, we need to change tack, this ultra pro Europe stance is actually the political equivalent of putting our head in a trip hammer "..

    That is a very good point, of some betting significance. In the event of a hung parliament where the arithmetic again points to a Con/LD coalition, would they really crash the government on the principle of denying a referendum?
    The LDs are unpopular at the moment because of the coalition with the Cons, not because of their EU policies. The Tories insisting on a referendum (on what?) would be just the get-out-of-another-toxic-coalition card the LDs needed.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    SeanT If Le Pen wins in France, Farage in the UK and Wilders in the Netherlands as the polls suggest shockwaves will spread through Europe!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MrJones said:

    The political class' 1000 foot high, glowing pink neon double standard over islam is one of the things that defines the political class.

    Actually, I agree with that, or at least their double standards about some of the disagreeable variants of Islam which we have encouraged to take root here (and, in case tim is reading this: Yes, I accept that this mistake goes right back to Maggie's time, when the French authorities were tearing their hair out at the lack of action by Britain against some very nasty Algerian terrorist groups who were planting bombs in the Paris metro at the time).

    However, when it comes to double standards, UKIP take the biscuit on this. After all, if the threat is from militant Islam, why on earth are they pretending that it is about EU immigration?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Speedy said:

    Imagine the scene, you are a simple voter minding your own business then suddenly comes the PM smilling and says straight to your face "Trust me". A sure vote winner.

    Indeed!

    Is that not what the polling shows?

    Voters swing significantly to 'stay in' when told 'the deal' is endorsed by Cameron......

    I expect that's why Kippers are desperate for Miliband to win, as they know Cameron will shoot, stuff and mount their fox......

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3

    The Sun is always right and backs the winner - on this occasion however, its to close to call.
    In this case they can not endorse the winner since endorsing UKIP after all this media firestorm is imposible for any newspaper bar the Daily Express and perhaps the Mail.

    Good point - quite honestly since the Sun went behind the pay-wall, I don't think I've seen a single article on the kippers or anything else linked to them on PB - have they been anti Ukip in your opinion?

    update - cheers Mr Jones, just read your reply.
    I for one am very surprised at The Sun's recent take on UKIP.

    I dont buy any paper, but when I go to the Cafe I read The Sun. Until May, it has read like a UKIP pamphlet, endorsing their immigration stance in articles and editorials, and portryaing EU immigration as a bad thing.

    I would have been prepared to back them endorsing UKIP at the GE at 6/4.

    So I got that wrong! Their volte face has been remarkable
    The Sun advocates working class populism as long as the working class vote for the establishment party which the Murdochs support.

    The Sun has discovered that advocating working class populism is now encouraging the working class to vote for a working class populist party instead of the establishment party which the Murdochs support.

    There's a 'Downfall' parody to be made here. Rupert would fit the bunker image well.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    I would have been prepared to back them endorsing UKIP at the GE at 6/4.

    I wish you'd put that on the site - you'd have been accommodated for plenty :-)

    1/20 The Sun backs the Tories
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    SeanT said:


    Are there teams of 70 something vaguely Tory Englishmen trying to push walls onto gay people because of some deeply held ideology?

    No.

    Is there a country, a culture, a billion strong civilisation which believes gays should be executed that way?

    Yes.

    And we import 100,000s of people from that latter culture, even as pathetic fools like you bleat about the former.

    You are a coward.

    You are defending a party that is likely to top the polls tomorrow and whose leader defends the right of its candidates to be anti-gay. Instead of invoking threats from 5000 miles away, I will prefer to concentrate on the bigotry that is being openly expressed here and now by silly old fools that you are condoning.
    Threats from 5000 miles away?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/22/muslim-patrol-anti-gay-harassment-east-london-_n_2527111.html

    What will this be like when large parts of London, or other cities, are 20-30% Muslim, or 50% Muslim. It ain't gonna be Godfrey Bloom trying to hit you with a brick.

    You are an intellectual coward of the first rank, because you are smart enough to know better, but you choose to delude yourself.
    Thank you for telling me who you think is my biggest threat. Personally, I'll stick with being concerned about a party whose candidates want to shoot me and whose leader condones anti-gay statements.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    If UKIP have any sense they will have put some money aside to pay for full page adverts in every paper showing the ballot paper and highlighting that UKIP are at the bottom with a tick/cross in the box

    Im anticipating the "If UKIP have any sense..." wisecracks

    Sounds like a waste of money to me. Sure, some people may end up making the mistake, but if people were already at risk of doing so, a full page advert in a paper showing the correct ballot paper location would likely not be effective in any case.

    Not really.. many people wiull see the ballot paper for the first time at the polling station, and tick the wrong box without looking any further. Why not tell them in advance where UKIP are?
    Why not just put it in a strapline on the leaflets like AIFE did then? Not everyone gets papers, but you can put those through every door as already planned.
    I think they did actually.

    I am not trying to be smart arsey/last word freak, but I think more people read papers than leaflets, even if more get the leaflets
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    SeanT said:


    Are there teams of 70 something vaguely Tory Englishmen trying to push walls onto gay people because of some deeply held ideology?

    No.

    Is there a country, a culture, a billion strong civilisation which believes gays should be executed that way?

    Yes.

    And we import 100,000s of people from that latter culture, even as pathetic fools like you bleat about the former.

    You are a coward.

    You are defending a party that is likely to top the polls tomorrow and whose leader defends the right of its candidates to be anti-gay. Instead of invoking threats from 5000 miles away, I will prefer to concentrate on the bigotry that is being openly expressed here and now by silly old fools that you are condoning.
    Actually SeanT has a point, I got the point when muslims tried to segregate universities, ironically that is setting left wing atheists against islam.
    http://www.secularism.org.uk/blog/2014/03/gender-segregation--universities-and-student-representatives-continue-to-fail-their-students-miserably
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Speedy said:

    antifrank said:

    SeanT said:


    Are there teams of 70 something vaguely Tory Englishmen trying to push walls onto gay people because of some deeply held ideology?

    No.

    Is there a country, a culture, a billion strong civilisation which believes gays should be executed that way?

    Yes.

    And we import 100,000s of people from that latter culture, even as pathetic fools like you bleat about the former.

    You are a coward.

    You are defending a party that is likely to top the polls tomorrow and whose leader defends the right of its candidates to be anti-gay. Instead of invoking threats from 5000 miles away, I will prefer to concentrate on the bigotry that is being openly expressed here and now by silly old fools that you are condoning.
    Actually SeanT has a point, I got the point when muslims tried to segregate universities, ironically that is setting left wing atheists against islam.
    http://www.secularism.org.uk/blog/2014/03/gender-segregation--universities-and-student-representatives-continue-to-fail-their-students-miserably
    Kippers telling me that I shouldn't be concerned about Kipper homophobia? Well, whodathunkit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT If Le Pen wins in France, Farage in the UK and Wilders in the Netherlands as the polls suggest shockwaves will spread through Europe!

    I am sure they will sit down, think carefully, and realise that the solution is clearly more Europe! Anti-EU parties topping the polls just means the public didn't understand what was good for them. Besides, a majority of pro-EU parties will be elected even if they don't top the poll, and that's just as good, right? That's no cause for concern that party blocs supposedly on different parts of the political spectrum have to work together to thward large parties from some of the largest EU nations?

    Night all.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    isam said:

    I would have been prepared to back them endorsing UKIP at the GE at 6/4.

    I wish you'd put that on the site - you'd have been accommodated for plenty :-)

    1/20 The Sun backs the Tories
    I am pretty sure I did!

    I tried to price it up on here rather than saying "who wants to lay 6/4 UKIP", but I think I said 40% UKIP 20% Tory 40% No one
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    It was in 1977 that the then Home Secretary, Merlyn Rees, was booed down by the Police Federation. In all the time since, no Minister has had the cojones to stand up to them, until today.

    Respect.

This discussion has been closed.