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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Final YouGov poll on Euros and Euros round up

SystemSystem Posts: 11,705
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Final YouGov poll on Euros and Euros round up

EXCL: YouGov/Sun projection – UKIP to make history and win tmrw's Euro vote: UKIP 27%, Lab 26% http://t.co/BxDIr0lDej pic.twitter.com/hsgK5eLfgo

Read the full story here


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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I think I'm turning into a geek - sort of like Morris on F1, but hopefully less so :-)

    Like many people, I've had the Kindle app on my PC, laptop, tablet and smart phone for some time.

    I'd toyed with the idea of getting a Kindle device, but the Paperwhite was a bit steep at $119, considering I already had other ways to use kindle.

    Then I got an email from amazon offering 5 payments with no interest to buy one. So I did.

    It is so cool. I tend to buy the cheap classic bundles - I have all the RL Stevenson novels, all the Jules verne, Bronte sisters, Jane Austen etc, usually for $0.99 each.

    Good books I buy as books, such as the Song of Ice and Fire series..

    On the way home from lunch I stopped off at my local library - just thought I'd ask. They love kindles and Nooks and the other ebook readers. Sho 'nuff I can get books from the library on my Kindle (and phone, PC and tablet) at no charge. After 3 weeks they just disappear off my device. Up to 20 at one time. All done via the Gwinnett County Library website.

    I am one happy camper - now I'll have something to read while waiting for my daughter to have her gall blader removed on Friday morning!

    Apropriately enough, one of my books from the library is Doc by Mary Doria Russell.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    First?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Tim Newton Dunn LOL

    Hardly a bombshell. I assumed a Tory surge when he tweeted that.

    Kip lead over Lab 1pt. Who cares?
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Did anyone feel the earth move from this bombshell? The plates have all fallen out of the cupboard in our house.

    I thought it was going to be double figure UKIP lead.

    DAMPSQUIBTASTIC!
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Strictly speaking it's a draw, on that poll.

    22-22

    There's no points for votes ;-)

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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Telegraph breaks off from their kipper baiting to go for a more traditional line on nights like this...

    10,000 European Union officials better paid than David Cameron

    ****ing mental.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Did anyone feel the earth move from this bombshell? The plates have all fallen out of the cupboard in our house.

    I thought it was going to be double figure UKIP lead.

    DAMPSQUIBTASTIC!

    LOL.

    Reminds me of the bombshell Welsh poll that was ramped for a week.

    When it came out it showed a slightly rosier picture for Labour and no bugger cared.

    Even in Wales.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: ...the Lib Dems will also come 5th, on 9%, behind the Greens on 10%. http://t.co/zUf8deAgEA

    Ouch
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.

    LOL.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2014

    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.

    While 22% is a major victory for Cameron...of course.

    Would be quite funny if Labour ended up winning after The Sun has called it for UKIP before the polls have actually opened. In fact they could have given some of the Labour voters(and even Tories) a push to get off their arses to go out and vote tomorrow.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    So what time do I expect to stay up to tomorrow night - did I see the BBC are covering the locals until 3am?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    edited May 2014
    Bombshells ain't what they used to be.

    And on that, er, bombshell...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    I've updated the thread header

    Update the Sun Graphic is incorrect, The Greens are on 10% ahead of the Lib Dems who are on 9%
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Labour should win East Midlands on that polling -9/4 with William hills I think still --Lib dems should get 3 seats at 9% imo
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    maaarsh said:

    Telegraph breaks off from their kipper baiting to go for a more traditional line on nights like this...

    10,000 European Union officials better paid than David Cameron

    ****ing mental.

    But consistent. The Daily Telegraph is for Brexit but against racism.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602

    So what time do I expect to stay up to tomorrow night - did I see the BBC are covering the locals until 3am?

    I'm off to the cinema at midnight (less than 2 hours time) to watch the new X Men film.

    Then, I'm having a late morning, then planning to stay up until 2am on Friday morning.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Less of a bombshell.....more of a gnats fart.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.

    While 22% is a major victory for Cameron...of course.

    Would be quite funny if Labour ended up winning after The Sun has called it for UKIP before the polls have actually opened. In fact they could have given some of the Labour voters(and even Tories) a push to get off their arses to go out and vote tomorrow.
    Nah, 'pouter.

    The rain will keep Labour voters away.

    Basil doesn't like getting his fur wet.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.

    While 22% is a major victory for Cameron...of course.

    Would be quite funny if Labour ended up winning after The Sun has called it for UKIP before the polls have actually opened. In fact they could have given some of the Labour voters(and even Tories) a push to get off their arses to go out and vote tomorrow.
    They may be right but their 'projection' is just a regular nightly poll with the normal margin of error AFAIK, unless it is some strange form of exit poll that x-rays postal votes.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.

    While 22% is a major victory for Cameron...of course.

    Would be quite funny if Labour ended up winning after The Sun has called it for UKIP before the polls have actually opened. In fact they could have given some of the Labour voters(and even Tories) a push to get off their arses to go out and vote tomorrow.
    Agreed it would be funny and could help both main ones.

    How much higher is a 22% score versus the last incumbents euro poll score... can you remind me what Gordon managed?
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    What turnout filter do YouGov use? It would be good if they could publish the regional breakdown as the subsamples should be fairly robust for once.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142


    Eagles

    Any more shopping trips planned to Page Hall ?

    By all accounts there was a large scale international match taking place there last night - Yemenis v Slovakian Roma in an unfriendly.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    FPTYet you do have a nut of a point. My staff openly express their distaste for Ukip, in the office, for all to hear. That said Ukip are widely hated in most parts of normal London* so I guess they are pretty safe.

    I admit to being surprised to hearing the same open distaste for UKIP in my office, here in the much more UKIP friendly SW. I found it a bit awkward, as though I do not intend to vote UKIP I have no real problem with them except their excessive whinging and persecution complex (yes, there is justification for some of it, calm down), and I want them to do well. I am a pretty obviously soft lefty on social matters at least though, so perhaps the person concerned did not feel I could possibly do anything but hate UKIP.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Will 'an independence from Europe' actually do for UKIP by giving it to Labour -with polling that close they surely will!
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Bombshells ain't what they used to be.

    And on that, er, bombshell...

    Tom Newton Dunn has scored the rare success of uniting all PBers - in a collective state of anticlimax.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    FPT
    Of course rightwingers believe they are correct. But what you would never see is a BBC Tory (there must be a couple?) joining in some hashtag frenzy on Twitter demeaning a significant leftwing party, a day before an election.

    #ImNotVotingSnp #ImNotVotingLibDem followed by a stream of ridiculous jocular abuse

    etc etc

    It's just inconceivable. Why? Because the right do not have this We Are Inherently and Morally Superior mindset, which infests the Left, and the Left infests and corrupts the BBC, like gangrene.

    As I say, stuff like this is going to kill the BBC. Because one day there will be a serious rightwing party in power in the UK and they will want revenge, and the digital revolution will give them the perfect excuse to pension off the license fee for good. And thus the BBC dies.

    And who, frankly, gives a toss any more? America is better served in all forms of TV: drama, news, comedy.

    Kill the BBC. Get rid.


    I do not agree with your conclusion, but I glad we appear to have a consensus that righty's are not immune from the same behaviour, and that it was the fact of her BBC position making being so open about that behaviour that is noteworthy here, even if I think we will have to disagree that the right do not have a mindset of being inherently and morally superior mindset, as opposed to merely being correct.

    I will concede the Left play that moral superiority card with greater frequency, which gets on my nerves on occasion.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    When is it not?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602


    Eagles

    Any more shopping trips planned to Page Hall ?

    By all accounts there was a large scale international match taking place there last night - Yemenis v Slovakian Roma in an unfriendly.

    I try and avoid going to Page Hall Road.

    Was Monday night, here's the Sheffied Star's write up of it

    http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/two-arrests-over-mass-brawl-on-sheffield-street-1-6628513
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Steve Brookstein (1st x factor winner) is backing the Lib Dems!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    FPT:
    How can you hate lib dems? Only fuddy duddy labour types do imo. A lot of people think they are a bit wet and pathetic but there must be at least 20% of voters who actually are pro Europe enough to give them a vote . I think they will out perform their polling tomorrow .Just look at people who are undecided on here below who think they may still vote for them


    I certainly don't hate the LDs, I've decided to vote for them tomorrow myself, but while there may be a 'Shy LD' voter effect, and I think the visceral hatred for them is overblown, I do not think it can be said to be restricted merely to 'fuddy duddy labour types'. Those particularly, but you don't languish in the polls so consistently and face complete wipeout in many areas of the country like they have done and are, without genuine hatred behind it from significant numbers.

    There is certainly a pro-EU vote to go after, but the fervent pro-EU vote is pretty small, and much of the rest of 'stay in, but not very happy about things' to varying degrees, which is the bit Labour and the Tories will get, not the LDs I think.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    @MaxPB

    FPT

    Well said mate, I couldn't agree more
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    I've never received an election communication from the Greens in any election. I presume they put in more effort elsewhere, or are they really just an acceptable default for many people?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT said:

    Of course rightwingers believe they are correct. But what you would never see is a BBC Tory (there must be a couple?) joining in some hashtag frenzy on Twitter demeaning a significant leftwing party, a day before an election.

    #ImNotVotingSnp #ImNotVotingLibDem followed by a stream of ridiculous jocular abuse

    etc etc

    It's just inconceivable. Why? Because the right do not have this We Are Inherently and Morally Superior mindset, which infests the Left, and the Left infests and corrupts the BBC, like gangrene.

    As I say, stuff like this is going to kill the BBC. Because one day there will be a serious rightwing party in power in the UK and they will want revenge, and the digital revolution will give them the perfect excuse to pension off the license fee for good. And thus the BBC dies.

    And who, frankly, gives a toss any more? America is better served in all forms of TV: drama, news, comedy.

    Kill the BBC. Get rid.

    Does your daughter not watch CBeebies?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    corporeal said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Steve Brookstein (1st x factor winner) is backing the Lib Dems!
    Will the Lib Dem go "Against All The Odds" and do well tomorrow?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    With Tories only 5% behind and 9 to 1 that is good value. I maintain 27% is peak for all 3 winners and Tories will get 24% at least.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020
    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Robbie Gibb ‏@RobbieGibb 9m

    Election day (4/4): No opinion poll relating to the election may be published until Sunday, when polls have closed throughout Europe.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Well I did try to go to bed - they've cunningly not put anything good on TV tonight.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    The Sun Editorial on who to vote for tomorrow is fascinating.

    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 59s

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections...

    pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Robbie Gibb ‏@RobbieGibb 10m

    Election day (3/4): Whilst the polls are open, it is a criminal offence to broadcast anything about the way in which people have voted.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Rain vs ground game

    That is tomorrows battle.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Robbie Gibb ‏@RobbieGibb 12m

    Election day (1/4): There is no coverage of any of the campaigns, from 6am until polls close at 10pm on TV, radio or http://bbc.co.uk .
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Whenever you hear the words "poll" and "bombshell" in close proximity, prepare to be disappointed!
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    Re coming 3rd, wasn't that Eaton or someone from the Staggers doing some preposterous and flagrant expectations management?????
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    This tweet is from someone who works for YouGov.

    L Janta-Lipinski ‏@jantalipinski 2m

    I'll be voting Green tomorrow as I'm pretty certain we have their share highest of all pollster so every vote counts
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Why is the guardian leaking the LDs - I thought they were on our side???
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    If UKIP top the poll and the Greens beat the LDs, the case for at least 1 fiveway debate becomes unarguable
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    This tweet is from someone who works for YouGov.

    L Janta-Lipinski ‏@jantalipinski 2m

    I'll be voting Green tomorrow as I'm pretty certain we have their share highest of all pollster so every vote counts

    LOL
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    IOS said:

    Rain vs ground game

    That is tomorrows battle.

    And now many Romanians let their neighbours get out of their homes....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    I have things prepared for all eventualities, even a draft thread if the Lib Dems win the Euros

    The one if the Tories win is short and sweet and just says

    "Hahahaha, you should have listened to OGH and myself when we were tipping the Tories to win the Euros at 55/1 and 28/1 respectively"
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    Indeed my lefty friends - a yawn of a poll - however any UKIP win over the Red Team will be a historic failure as you know.

    That is true, although they've done a good job in not trying to halt the narrative that a UKIP win was the most likely outcome with any real fervour, so while it would be terrible, it's sort of expected at this point, and coming third would likely be the only thing that rattles them. Same as the LDs doing their best to say they expect return no MEPs, so they can spin even 1-2 as comparitively good.

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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    The euros do not matter anyway. Even if the greens beat the Lib Dems its nothing more than embarrassing.

    What happens in the local elections in marginal areas. That's what really matters.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    Politics night in the Knowles household

    Pa, who never bothers voting, is voting UKIP tmrw
    Ma, Labour voter all her life who threatened to ban me from the house if I voted Conservative, is voting UKIP
    Uncle Mick, member of the Conservative Club in Gidea Park, is voting UKIP, and told Andrew Rosindell so when he knocked on his front door last week
    I cant find my ballot card.. does this matter????
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Congratulations to PB for getting this information.It is very helpful though the parties' focus will be on GOTV.This could be the determining factor and then there is that factor in Mike Smithson's post about the ballot paper issue and AIME.
    I'm content with my Lab/Ukip/Con,Greens to beat L/Ds and LibDems to scrape one from somewhere,maybe the SW.
    I apologise in advance if I bother you tomorrow to go out to vote but I hope everyone does vote.Democracy is precious.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited May 2014
    isam said:


    I cant find my ballot card.. does this matter????

    No. Says right on them you don't need to take it with you 'but it is helpful if you can'.

    On a similar 'not in the rules business'. If anyone takes selfies can they do so in the voting booth tomorrow? Wasn't there a story earlier about how the Electoral Commission have asked staff to stop people doing it, but it is not actually against the law (so long as you don't accidentally show which way you voted)? Someone should try it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    I have things prepared for all eventualities, even a draft thread if the Lib Dems win the Euros

    The one if the Tories win is short and sweet and just says

    "Hahahaha, you should have listed to OGH and myself when we were tipping the Tories to win the Euros at 55/1 and 28/1 respectively"
    Much like the British government.. ;-)
    It is usually assumed that the Government keeps contingency plans in its bottom drawer for just about anything: abdications, alien invasion, a Belgian military strike.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100270193/scottish-independence-would-be-devastating-why-isnt-the-government-ready-for-it/
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RobD said:

    Whenever you hear the words "poll" and "bombshell" in close proximity, prepare to be disappointed!

    Someone surpassed even that last week when they ramped a Welsh Euro poll on twitter for an entire week. When it came out showing a fractionally rosier picture for Labour, nobody batted an eyelid, even in the ultra close Euro seat of Cynon Gam Marginal.

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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    Politics night in the Knowles household

    Pa, who never bothers voting, is voting UKIP tmrw
    Ma, Labour voter all her life who threatened to ban me from the house if I voted Conservative, is voting UKIP
    Uncle Mick, member of the Conservative Club in Gidea Park, is voting UKIP, and told Andrew Rosindell so when he knocked on his front door last week
    I cant find my ballot card.. does this matter????

    No, just go your polling station and give your name and address.

    (then vote Lib Dem).
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    I have things prepared for all eventualities, even a draft thread if the Lib Dems win the Euros

    The one if the Tories win is short and sweet and just says

    "Hahahaha, you should have listened to OGH and myself when we were tipping the Tories to win the Euros at 55/1 and 28/1 respectively"
    Is the Lib Dem one even shorter, as in three letters, WTF?
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    JBriskin said:

    Well I did try to go to bed - they've cunningly not put anything good on TV tonight.

    American Beauty on BBC 4 is v good but I switched off when the father beat up his son.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    With it being apparently so close between UKIP and Lab the weather could make a difference by affecting turnout. And for Labour the important places will be Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, London.

    Liverpool — heavy rain forecast for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644210

    Manchester — heavy rain forecast for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

    Birmingham — heavy rain / showers for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655603?day=1

    London — showers from noon onwards:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    edited May 2014
    94% for the top 5? Aye right. Votes go all over the place on this nonsense. With the nationalists as well the votes for the main parties will be lower.

    Still expect well basically everyone to under perform for different reasons. Labour especially though. Still think there is a chance they come 3rd. Their voters have never turned out for this farce.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT said:

    BobaFett said:

    SeanT said:

    Of course rightwingers believe they are correct. But what you would never see is a BBC Tory (there must be a couple?) joining in some hashtag frenzy on Twitter demeaning a significant leftwing party, a day before an election.

    #ImNotVotingSnp #ImNotVotingLibDem followed by a stream of ridiculous jocular abuse

    etc etc

    It's just inconceivable. Why? Because the right do not have this We Are Inherently and Morally Superior mindset, which infests the Left, and the Left infests and corrupts the BBC, like gangrene.

    As I say, stuff like this is going to kill the BBC. Because one day there will be a serious rightwing party in power in the UK and they will want revenge, and the digital revolution will give them the perfect excuse to pension off the license fee for good. And thus the BBC dies.

    And who, frankly, gives a toss any more? America is better served in all forms of TV: drama, news, comedy.

    Kill the BBC. Get rid.

    Does your daughter not watch CBeebies?

    No. She now watches the Simpsons. She is 8 on Saturday. Bless. Her sister is 8 next week.
    Happy birthday to her. My telly has two channels - CBeebies and FashionTrash.

    I'm having to buy a second one that receives Sky Sports.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    BobaFett said:

    RobD said:

    Whenever you hear the words "poll" and "bombshell" in close proximity, prepare to be disappointed!

    Someone surpassed even that last week when they ramped a Welsh Euro poll on twitter for an entire week. When it came out showing a fractionally rosier picture for Labour, nobody batted an eyelid, even in the ultra close Euro seat of Cynon Gam Marginal.

    Yeah I remember seeing that on PB a while back... YAWN (although any poll is a good poll, just incessant ramping is not)
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Lack of locals in Sco+Wal (stronger for Labour) lead to lower turnout could be the edge for UKIP.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    kle4 said:

    isam said:


    I cant find my ballot card.. does this matter????

    No. Says right on them you don't need to take it with you 'but it is helpful if you can'.

    On a similar 'not in the rules business'. If anyone takes selfies can they do so in the voting booth tomorrow? Wasn't there a story earlier about how the Electoral Commission have asked staff to stop people doing it, but it is not actually against the law (so long as you don't accidentally show which way you voted)? Someone should try it.
    Heard the arse end of something on the radio saying they will fine people for doing so. It has apparently become a new fad.

    Can imagine some of the newbies going in there, getting their phone out and then asking the person in the next cubical "What do I do now?".
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    kle4 said:

    FPT:
    How can you hate lib dems? Only fuddy duddy labour types do imo. A lot of people think they are a bit wet and pathetic but there must be at least 20% of voters who actually are pro Europe enough to give them a vote . I think they will out perform their polling tomorrow .Just look at people who are undecided on here below who think they may still vote for them


    I certainly don't hate the LDs, I've decided to vote for them tomorrow myself, but while there may be a 'Shy LD' voter effect, and I think the visceral hatred for them is overblown, I do not think it can be said to be restricted merely to 'fuddy duddy labour types'. Those particularly, but you don't languish in the polls so consistently and face complete wipeout in many areas of the country like they have done and are, without genuine hatred behind it from significant numbers.

    There is certainly a pro-EU vote to go after, but the fervent pro-EU vote is pretty small, and much of the rest of 'stay in, but not very happy about things' to varying degrees, which is the bit Labour and the Tories will get, not the LDs I think.

    Thing is if they are sub 10% and get wiped out in the Euros having had their leader go so gung ho as " the party of in", at what point do you stop and think " hang on, we need to change tack, this ultra pro Europe stance is actually the political equivalent of putting our head in a trip hammer ".

    100% respect for saying what they believe and good luck, but at some point you've got to accept it just ain't happening for you.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited May 2014

    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    I have things prepared for all eventualities, even a draft thread if the Lib Dems win the Euros

    The one if the Tories win is short and sweet and just says

    "Hahahaha, you should have listened to OGH and myself when we were tipping the Tories to win the Euros at 55/1 and 28/1 respectively"
    Is the Lib Dem one even shorter, as in three letters, WTF?
    No, it'll be trolling the Kippers.

    Mind you, all my pieces will troll the Kippers, when I point out that a majority of the country voted for the Pro-European parties, you know the hated LibLabCon traitorous thingy
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    isam said:

    Politics night in the Knowles household

    Pa, who never bothers voting, is voting UKIP tmrw
    Ma, Labour voter all her life who threatened to ban me from the house if I voted Conservative, is voting UKIP
    Uncle Mick, member of the Conservative Club in Gidea Park, is voting UKIP, and told Andrew Rosindell so when he knocked on his front door last week
    I cant find my ballot card.. does this matter????

    The people at the polling station will be so pleased to get a real live visitor you may get tea and biscuits.

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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    The Sun ‏@TheSunNewspaper 2m

    'It's rare for The Sun to endorse no one at an election' — on tomorrow's Euro elections... pic.twitter.com/CIJp7lHdq3
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Andy

    The weather is going to kill us.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    ELECTOR ‏@britainelects 6m

    YouGov's final poll for Scotland #EP2014: LAB - 28% SNP - 26% CON - 15% UKIP - 13% GRN - 11% LDEM - 6% (NOTE: small sample of 533)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting move by Farage to criticise Charles's comments. Obviously not worried about upsetting royalists.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    perdix said:

    JBriskin said:

    Well I did try to go to bed - they've cunningly not put anything good on TV tonight.

    American Beauty on BBC 4 is v good but I switched off when the father beat up his son.

    Yes, I spotted that one, class of '99 along with Fight Club and Matrix. Why did they think that film would be good the day before elections?? I know most people aren't politicos but I really do feel they take the piss a bit sometimes.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    I have things prepared for all eventualities, even a draft thread if the Lib Dems win the Euros

    The one if the Tories win is short and sweet and just says

    "Hahahaha, you should have listed to OGH and myself when we were tipping the Tories to win the Euros at 55/1 and 28/1 respectively"
    Much like the British government.. ;-)
    It is usually assumed that the Government keeps contingency plans in its bottom drawer for just about anything: abdications, alien invasion, a Belgian military strike.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100270193/scottish-independence-would-be-devastating-why-isnt-the-government-ready-for-it/

    A Belgian military strike ?

    Is that why we are maintaining at huge cost - several fleets of fire engines !
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IOS said:

    Andy

    The weather is going to kill us.

    It could make the difference if it comes down to a few thousand votes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    BobaFett said:

    Will Ed join Neil Kinnock in becoming the only Leader of the Opposition not to win the Euros held in a non general election year.

    I feel an Ed is crap thread in the offing.

    Naturally :)

    Presumably if Labour exceed all PB expectations (I noted a number of forecasts for them to come third) it will be a Ed is Great thread instead? Perhaps with an EU/AV/Sindy twist, to keep the punters happy?
    I have things prepared for all eventualities, even a draft thread if the Lib Dems win the Euros

    The British public were shocked to discover this monday that they had voted in droves for the formerly disgraced Liberal Democrat party in the EU parliamentary election, although this was admittedly pushed to one side at the shock of discovering the moon had vanished from the sky over the weekend, that North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong Un had resigned in fury after discovering his 100% majority in his recent elections was not, as he had beleived 'entirely legitimate' but bolstered by misguided supporters of his, and that Elvis had reappeared, alive and well aged 79 and working in a chip shop in Grantham.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Yesterday in the ComRes poll they weighted everyone who didn't know the vote was on Thurs down to 0.6.

    That was a good idea - except they should weight those people down to zero - if you don't know the vote is on Thursday how on earth are you actually going to vote?

    For final polls, pollsters should first ask everyone when the vote is. If they don't get it right they should not be polled.

    NB. If anyone says they have voted by post then they should, of course, be included in the poll.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Opinium's final poll for #EP2014: UKIP - 32% LAB - 25% CON - 21% LDEM - 6% GRN - 6%
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983
    kle4 said:

    FPTYet you do have a nut of a point. My staff openly express their distaste for Ukip, in the office, for all to hear. That said Ukip are widely hated in most parts of normal London* so I guess they are pretty safe.

    I admit to being surprised to hearing the same open distaste for UKIP in my office, here in the much more UKIP friendly SW. I found it a bit awkward, as though I do not intend to vote UKIP I have no real problem with them except their excessive whinging and persecution complex (yes, there is justification for some of it, calm down), and I want them to do well. I am a pretty obviously soft lefty on social matters at least though, so perhaps the person concerned did not feel I could possibly do anything but hate UKIP.

    People hate what they fear. The idea that moderately socially conservative party (about as socially conservative as James Callaghan or Margaret Thatcher), which is patriotic, and eurosceptic, might come first, is horrifying to a proportion of the population.

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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AndyJS said:

    With it being apparently so close between UKIP and Lab the weather could make a difference by affecting turnout. And for Labour the important places will be Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, London.

    Liverpool — heavy rain forecast for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644210

    Manchester — heavy rain forecast for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

    Birmingham — heavy rain / showers for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655603?day=1

    London — showers from noon onwards:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

    Admittedly Labourites are well documented to dislike rain.

    Any insight on the weather preferences of Kippers? Presumably they think sunshine is "foreign muck"?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    kle4 said:

    isam said:


    I cant find my ballot card.. does this matter????

    No. Says right on them you don't need to take it with you 'but it is helpful if you can'.

    On a similar 'not in the rules business'. If anyone takes selfies can they do so in the voting booth tomorrow? Wasn't there a story earlier about how the Electoral Commission have asked staff to stop people doing it, but it is not actually against the law (so long as you don't accidentally show which way you voted)? Someone should try it.
    Heard the arse end of something on the radio saying they will fine people for doing so. It has apparently become a new fad.

    Can imagine some of the newbies going in there, getting their phone out and then asking the person in the next cubical "What do I do now?".
    Although it is easy to understand why the electoral commission don't want people photographing their ballots
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting move by Farage to criticise Charles's comments. Obviously not worried about upsetting royalists.

    It's anti-establishmentism all the way, whoever is in the firing line. He knows what he's doing.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2014
    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    It will be back to the drawing board for some of the pollsters on how they deal with UKIP if they don't win tomorrow.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    corporeal said:

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%

    Link please
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    marke09 said:

    Opinium's final poll for #EP2014: UKIP - 32% LAB - 25% CON - 21% LDEM - 6% GRN - 6%

    Wow

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
    Homosexuals like yourself get hysterical about the mild, wistful, pathetically tepid 1970s homophobia evinced by a few old Kippers, yet they entirely and utterly ignore the violent, serious, menacing, potentially lethal homophobia evinced by hundreds of thousands of Muslim immigrants.

    Funny, that.
    I do not ignore it. Which is more likely to top the Euro polls tomorrow, however?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    UPDATE - New Opinium poll added to the thread header

    Opinium poll for tomorrow's Daily Mail -
    UKIP: 32%
    Lab: 25%
    Con 21%
    LD: 6%
    Green: 6%
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    The Opinium poll at 90% for the top 5 is getting closer but I really can't see UKIP doing quite as well as that. Some polling reputations are going to take a dunt on Sunday/Monday.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    MikeL said:

    Yesterday in the ComRes poll they weighted everyone who didn't know the vote was on Thurs down to 0.6.

    That was a good idea - except they should weight those people down to zero - if you don't know the vote is on Thursday how on earth are you actually going to vote?

    For final polls, pollsters should first ask everyone when the vote is. If they don't get it right they should not be polled.

    NB. If anyone says they have voted by post then they should, of course, be included in the poll.

    It was Survation, not ComRes with this new innovation (sorry Richard)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are home and dry according to Opininum. They're well outside the margin of error.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BobaFett said:

    AndyJS said:

    With it being apparently so close between UKIP and Lab the weather could make a difference by affecting turnout. And for Labour the important places will be Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, London.

    Liverpool — heavy rain forecast for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644210

    Manchester — heavy rain forecast for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

    Birmingham — heavy rain / showers for most of the day:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655603?day=1

    London — showers from noon onwards:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

    Admittedly Labourites are well documented to dislike rain.

    Any insight on the weather preferences of Kippers? Presumably they think sunshine is "foreign muck"?
    The kippers want to import the weather of the tropics rather than that of temperate regions.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?



    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Tyndall How many UKIP supporters want as many Indian, Chinese or African immigrants as we currently get?

    You can dance on a pin for as long as you like, but UKIP is the party of pulling up the drawbridge and wishing that the 21st century did not exist. In a few years' time you will abandon it for its xenophobia and fail to acknowledge that others had spotted its dangerous tendencies years before you.

    You have no idea and are simply projecting your own bigotry. Certainly plenty of UKIP members I know would gladly swap large scale uncontrolled EU migration for educated and skilled immigrants from the rest of the world.

    It is sad that you support such a discriminatory system.
    I await with bated breath the day when a UKIP candidate tweets his or her views on the need for more immigration from Africa.
    You'll find that Rhodesians are acceptable. Zimbos perhaps. Melanin test required.

This discussion has been closed.