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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited May 2014
    @PTP

    Whatever happened to Angus Reid?

    Somehow all the non British based pollsters have fizzled out, Angus Reid, Gallup, NOP, Harris, to name but a few.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm backing Nick at 1-2.

    But I'm also backing the Tories in Sherwood at 5-1.

    A very smart combination. You'd have a pretty good chance of the 5/1 coming in if Nick P disappoints you.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Looks like Ladbrokes have taken down their constituency markets.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,593
    corporeal said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    Now that's just mean. Actually, I would rate his chances of winning Broxtowe as pretty decent even on a result like this.
    Pretty decent: Yes of course.

    2/7? Well, maybe not.

    On such polling, not. But I am fairly sceptical about all marginals polling.

    My point about the Lib Dem deposits is serious. There is a corollary. If the Lib Dems are polling 8% in 40 seats where they are third (a finding that both Lord Ashcroft and ComRes agree on), they have suffered a disproportionate swing in seats where they were second or first.
    Not necessarily. They may be disproportionately suffering in non-marginal seats.

    (The case for this, in marginal seats they're likely to have been squeezed already, while in non-marginals they would've had a larger softer vote to lose. And there are a lot more safe seats than marginal ones).
    I think the biggest falls in the LD vote in 2015 will be in those seats where they came second to Labour in 2010.

  • GIN1138 said:

    @PTP

    Whatever happened to Angus Reid?

    Somehow all the non British based pollsters have fizzled out, Angus Reid, Gallup, NOP, Harris, to name but a few.

    That's £1 fine you owe the PB.com Social fund for confusing me with a similarly-named poster - and that after I wrote to you about him earlier!

    I believe Angus Reid are still around in the UK but they seem to be low profile, at least politically. Perhaps they'll become more active as the GE approaches.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    GIN1138 said:

    @PTP

    Whatever happened to Angus Reid?

    Somehow all the non British based pollsters have fizzled out, Angus Reid, Gallup, NOP, Harris, to name but a few.

    That's £1 fine you owe the PB.com Social fund for confusing me with a similarly-named poster - and that after I wrote to you about him earlier!

    I believe Angus Reid are still around in the UK but they seem to be low profile, at least politically. Perhaps they'll become more active as the GE approaches.
    PTP & PFP, is an easy mistake to make to be fair.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Good to see Thurrock now best price 6s.. should have had more at 16s

    Hope some one followed me in

    Southampton Itchen looks big to me at 20s for UKIP (PP)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Why are Labour drifting so much in Newark?? Any ideas? No one betting them?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam

    I would put it down to most people being adverse to throwing money away
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    corporeal said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    Now that's just mean. Actually, I would rate his chances of winning Broxtowe as pretty decent even on a result like this.
    Pretty decent: Yes of course.

    2/7? Well, maybe not.

    On such polling, not. But I am fairly sceptical about all marginals polling.

    My point about the Lib Dem deposits is serious. There is a corollary. If the Lib Dems are polling 8% in 40 seats where they are third (a finding that both Lord Ashcroft and ComRes agree on), they have suffered a disproportionate swing in seats where they were second or first.
    Not necessarily. They may be disproportionately suffering in non-marginal seats.

    (The case for this, in marginal seats they're likely to have been squeezed already, while in non-marginals they would've had a larger softer vote to lose. And there are a lot more safe seats than marginal ones).
    I think the biggest falls in the LD vote in 2015 will be in those seats where they came second to Labour in 2010.

    Newark will be a good test of the theory.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Yawnsville... apparently Ed Miliband spends £2.25 on a loaf of bread from his local deli.

    Oh the shame!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    still £67.75 left to spend this week. Must be a slow news day!
    isam said:

    Yawnsville... apparently Ed Miliband spends £2.25 on a loaf of bread from his local deli.

    Oh the shame!

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam

    For that price he could have bought one of those bread makers, and broke even after five years
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    still £67.75 left to spend this week. Must be a slow news day!

    isam said:

    Yawnsville... apparently Ed Miliband spends £2.25 on a loaf of bread from his local deli.

    Oh the shame!

    If Farage gets asked this question, I hope to God he just says, "No idea, the missus takes care of all that. Probably too much"

    My Dad is not a rich man, never has been, and I am sure he has zero idea of how much Mum spends on the weekly shop

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    Would we change our voting choice if one of the leaders said "£1.20, but I keep telling her/him Aldi's own brand is only 45p."
    edit:- for a loaf
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @isam

    I believe the article is right, but it needs to take into account the Romanians not having the same immigration rules as the Germans.
    If you are already breaking the law by entering the country under illegal immigration, you are possibly not going to have qualms about shoplifting and stuff.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I heard that Farage interview, and continually posting comments on here that try to back up the original mistake he made in stereotyping a whole country is not doing Farage or UKIP any favours.
    isam said:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    fitalass said:

    I heard that Farage interview, and continually posting comments on here that try to back up the original mistake he made in stereotyping a whole country is not doing Farage or UKIP any favours.

    isam said:
    Thats because you would vote Tory no matter what and are disappointed that they are losing votes to UKIP.

    UKIP voters probably agree with him,,, the polls havent changed

    He didnt stereotype a whole country. He was asked how he would feel if a group of Romanian men moved next door, and he said what a lot of people would think.

    Political point scorers will go all faux outrage about it, but it is what most people would think.

    To be fair if ten English blokes rented the house next door I would raise an eyebrow as well.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam

    The press, and politicians that stand a chance of doing them a favour. will always hunt as a pack
    (Michael Foot's "donkey" jacket that wasn't)

    It might be a fun tabloid "survey" to ask the "ten English blokes" question to your average Romanian?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2014
    Some bad dreams never go away - watching the primary TV coverage, it looks like the Democratic candidate for governor in November will be Jason Carter, grandson of former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    The press, and politicians that stand a chance of doing them a favour. will always hunt as a pack
    (Michael Foot's "donkey" jacket that wasn't)

    It might be a fun tabloid "survey" to ask the "ten English blokes" question to your average Romanian?

    The truth is the possibility of having ten blokes of any nationality renting a 3/4 bedroom house next door could only possibly happen in a middle to working class area, so no one of any relevance in the world of politics could imagine how theyd feel.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,390
    Finally got round to a prediction, see https://user.nojam.com/pid/50/live/addprediction.php?f=4&j=0&bh=239

    Conservative %: 23
    Labour %: 27
    Lib Dem %: 7
    UKIP %: 31
    Green %: 7
    An Independence from Europe %: 0

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    All that blood spilled fighting for freedom, and we still get ruled by "dynasties"
    {apologies for the starting ad, but Tim will have more chance of watching it should he wish)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIHJ9RMAVGI
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam

    I don't agree with a lot of things UKIP stands for, but it doesn't mean I can't understand or sympathize with many of it's statements.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I don't agree with a lot of things UKIP stands for, but it doesn't mean I can't understand or sympathize with many of it's statements.

    Ah everyones just trying to do what they think is best, some are wrong , some are right.. who knows? Take care Im off to bedforshire, night
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited May 2014
    Isam, you just keep believing that. But apart from being a Conservative voter, my grandfather made it across Europe from Poland during WW2 to help fight for his country before the EU ever existed. He too faced real immigration problems, either getting back into his own country or the UK when it was all over!! And back in the sixties when my parents got married, they caused a bit of stir too, well my Dad was from a devout Irish Catholic back ground while my Mum's family was strictly Church of Scotland. And now my nephew has just come out, and I am delighted that I will be able to see him get married when the time comes.

    So if you think my problem with UKIP right now is simple because I happen to vote for another political party, you haven't even scratched the surface of why UKIP is going to replicate the failings of the BNP bounce back in the Euro's in 2009 while seriously harming its original aim of leading us out of the EU. For me personally, after seeing both my Dad, Uncle, cousin and nephew serve in NI over three decades, the bringing down of the Berlin Wall, the terrible fallout of the collapse of Yugoslavia and all the other events of the last thirty years which mark our place in the world. I don't just have time for a party or a Leader that can come out with that kind of casual stereotyping on air in an interview when I still have relatives that can remember seeing signs that said No Catholics or No Protestants need apply.
    isam said:

    fitalass said:

    I heard that Farage interview, and continually posting comments on here that try to back up the original mistake he made in stereotyping a whole country is not doing Farage or UKIP any favours.

    isam said:
    Thats because you would vote Tory no matter what and are disappointed that they are losing votes to UKIP.

    UKIP voters probably agree with him,,, the polls havent changed

    He didnt stereotype a whole country. He was asked how he would feel if a group of Romanian men moved next door, and he said what a lot of people would think.

    Political point scorers will go all faux outrage about it, but it is what most people would think.

    To be fair if ten English blokes rented the house next door I would raise an eyebrow as well.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Regarding Jimmy Carter -

    He is a fine, intelligent, principled, honest man - just utterly ill suited to the job of POTUS.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B

    Happens all the time in politics, principles often lead to people doing the "right" thing, instead of the most politically expedient short term thing.
    Holds true for both ends of the political spectrum.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B

    I should have added that "short term political expedience" does not mean it can't also be the "right" thing (but seldom is)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    Good to see Thurrock now best price 6s.. should have had more at 16s

    Hope some one followed me in

    Southampton Itchen looks big to me at 20s for UKIP (PP)

    Yesterday that was 66-1.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I am amused by reading some of the comments in the previous thread about the UKIP "colour carnival" in Croydon, which descended into farce and chaos with a steel band and no Nigel Farage.

    It is important to bear in mind that it was not a UKIP event.
    It was a Winston McKenzie event.
    Everybody (including most people in UKIP) knows that he is a mega-booliak.

    In response to someone who wrote "I'd imagine that UKIP organisers went through an agency. But the band behaved inappropriately. If they committed to a booking they should have delivered" I'm fairly sure that McKenzie would have booked them himself, not via an agency, without reference to anyone else in UKIP. Reports on Twitter suggest that he may have told them that it was for the opening of a new shop. McKenzie has a track record not just of joining several different political parties, but also of organising schemes, events, programmes, whatever, and making a complete mess of them.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    #WhyImVotingUkip is trending on twitter although it is doubtful if any of them will.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited May 2014
    fitalass said:

    Isam, you just keep believing that. But apart from being a Conservative voter, my grandfather made it across Europe from Poland during WW2 to help fight for his country before the EU ever existed. He too faced real immigration problems, either getting back into his own country or the UK when it was all over!! And back in the sixties when my parents got married, they caused a bit of stir too, well my Dad was from a devout Irish Catholic back ground while my Mum's family was strictly Church of Scotland. And now my nephew has just come out, and I am delighted that I will be able to see him get married when the time comes.

    So if you think my problem with UKIP right now is simple because I happen to vote for another political party, you haven't even scratched the surface of why UKIP is going to replicate the failings of the BNP bounce back in the Euro's in 2009 while seriously harming its original aim of leading us out of the EU. For me personally, after seeing both my Dad, Uncle, cousin and nephew serve in NI over three decades, the bringing down of the Berlin Wall, the terrible fallout of the collapse of Yugoslavia and all the other events of the last thirty years which mark our place in the world. I don't just have time for a party or a Leader that can come out with that kind of casual stereotyping on air in an interview when I still have relatives that can remember seeing signs that said No Catholics or No Protestants need apply.

    Hear, hear.
    isam said:

    fitalass said:

    I heard that Farage interview, and continually posting comments on here that try to back up the original mistake he made in stereotyping a whole country is not doing Farage or UKIP any favours.

    isam said:
    Thats because you would vote Tory no matter what and are disappointed that they are losing votes to UKIP.

    UKIP voters probably agree with him,,, the polls havent changed

    He didnt stereotype a whole country. He was asked how he would feel if a group of Romanian men moved next door, and he said what a lot of people would think.

    Political point scorers will go all faux outrage about it, but it is what most people would think.

    To be fair if ten English blokes rented the house next door I would raise an eyebrow as well.


This discussion has been closed.