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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    Yawn
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Will Basil have to carry a UKIP goalpost as well now.....I'm not breaking it to him.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    @PBcorporealtom now
    New @Survation awareness filter is main driver behind @UKIP lead. Comes back to their supporters caring more.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 53 secs
    Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.

    Where as neil got these numbers from ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Tykejohnno said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 53 secs
    Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.

    Where as neil got these numbers from ?

    That's the final new filter adjustment. (See the LTV & Awareness tab)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Easterross said:

    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.

    How do you read that from these polls? Again genuine question not sarcasm. These polls seem to indicate either Labour or (more likely) UKIP with Tory 3rd.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Easterross said:

    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.

    Dream on . LOL

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 53 secs
    Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.

    Where as neil got these numbers from ?

    That's the final new filter adjustment. (See the LTV & Awareness tab)
    Thanks.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Easterross said:

    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.

    Eh? On 23 per cent?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    That's two EU Parliament 10% in a row from YouGov for the LDs. Back from the brink?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    There's also some pretty interesting ComRes polling coming out at 10.30pm
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sunder Katwala ‏@sundersays · 5 mins
    Final Survation: 29-29 UKIP-Labour (all voters) but UKIP stretch to 5 point lead (32-27-23) on differential turnout http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf …

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Easterross said:

    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.

    How do you read that from these polls? Again genuine question not sarcasm. These polls seem to indicate either Labour or (more likely) UKIP with Tory 3rd.
    its all in the turnout.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Tykejohnno said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 53 secs
    Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.

    Where as neil got these numbers from ?

    It's the 4th tab on the top graph.

    Survation have applied a weighting based on both likelihood to vote, and awareness of what day the poll is on, those are the results.

    (Boosts UKIP due to their supporters greater passion for Euro elections).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    An interesting thing there is that UKIP's vote mostly intend to be loyal next year, but the ones that aren't are going almost equally to Tories and Labour - presumably reflecting the fact that UKIP have made inroads into Labour after their earlier gains from the Tories (which in turn has been the main factor in the drop in the Labour Westminster lead). That reduces the scope for UKIP-bashing to change the 2015 outcome, unless the currently loyal 71% are very different.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Easterross said:

    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.

    How do you read that from these polls? Again genuine question not sarcasm. These polls seem to indicate either Labour or (more likely) UKIP with Tory 3rd.
    I think he meant things are shaping up nicely for the Tories in the same way things were shaping up nicely for Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid just before they took on the whole Bolivian Army.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Tory Jim - FPT - thanks. I'm such news junkie I find it hard to imagine how imagine how the average person perceives it all. Bit like Gogglebox I suppose.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709
    I've revised my prediction of a UKIP win. Lefties love to see themselves as warriors, and the media tumult of the last few weeks will have motivated many to get out there on a 'Stop UKIP' assault. So Labour just shading it is my new guess.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    NickPalmer said:

    That reduces the scope for UKIP-bashing to change the 2015 outcome, unless the currently loyal 71% are very different.

    ... which is extremely likely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sleazy broken Ukip on the slide.

    Single figures in the GE now nailed on.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Farce descending to new level. Cameron now criticised for NOT calling Farage a racist. It just gets dafter by the day.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/cameron-fails-to-call-ukip-leader-farage-a-racist-1-3416263
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On topic: I'm extremely impressed by this new Survation filter, weighting down 'voters' who don't know there's an election on. Is this an innovation, or something which has been done before?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: I'm extremely impressed by this new Survation filter, weighting down 'voters' who don't know there's an election on. Is this an innovation, or something which has been done before?

    New innovation I think, judging by the embargoed stuff I got.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    That weighting question's pretty smart. Not least because it shows Labour voters don't know what day it is.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: I'm extremely impressed by this new Survation filter, weighting down 'voters' who don't know there's an election on. Is this an innovation, or something which has been done before?

    As far as I know it's new. Which makes it fascinating but difficult to see how it holds up (i.e. will people get reminded on the day etc).

    I'm a bit wary about basing predictions on it, but very interested to see how well it holds up in the post-mortem.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Some strange regional sub samples in the Survation poll . Lib Dems would win seats in London , North East and Wales but borderline in South East and not in South West . .
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TGOHF said:

    Sleazy broken Ukip on the slide.

    Single figures in the GE now nailed on.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

    From our Doug -

    Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

    Sleazy broken tories could finish Third.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: I'm extremely impressed by this new Survation filter, weighting down 'voters' who don't know there's an election on. Is this an innovation, or something which has been done before?

    New innovation I think, judging by the embargoed stuff I got.
    A 'new innovation', TSE? Given this is Pedantry Central, you might want to rethink that...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MarkKleinmanSky: Exclusive: Sporting Index, world's biggest sports spread-betting firm, to be put up for sale by owner HgCapital. http://t.co/S2COYAiUhc
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: I'm extremely impressed by this new Survation filter, weighting down 'voters' who don't know there's an election on. Is this an innovation, or something which has been done before?

    New innovation I think, judging by the embargoed stuff I got.
    A 'new innovation', TSE? Given this is Pedantry Central, you might want to rethink that...
    I meant it is the debut of this innovation.

    In my defence, I'm hugely distracted this evening.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Tykejohnno said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil · 53 secs
    Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.

    Where as neil got these numbers from ?

    The Greens' share of the vote for the Euro elections has been all over the place but this final Survation poll giving them 4% makes Ladbrokes' odds of 5/6 on them securing less than 8% look like a steal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Paxman gets straight to the point with Berlusconi on his opinion of Angela Merkel's looks
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/19/newsnight-paxman-interview-berlusconi-_n_5354927.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    On topic: I'm extremely impressed by this new Survation filter, weighting down 'voters' who don't know there's an election on. Is this an innovation, or something which has been done before?

    New innovation I think, judging by the embargoed stuff I got.
    A 'new innovation', TSE? Given this is Pedantry Central, you might want to rethink that...
    A recent innovation is a new one, an innovation people have been using for years would be an old innovation?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tykejohnno said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sleazy broken Ukip on the slide.

    Single figures in the GE now nailed on.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

    From our Doug -

    Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

    Sleazy broken tories could finish Third.

    The job on Ukip has been effective - helped enormously by Ukip. Gravity is already having an effect.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Blueberry said:

    Tory Jim - FPT - thanks. I'm such news junkie I find it hard to imagine how imagine how the average person perceives it all. Bit like Gogglebox I suppose.

    When you are fighting an election you can get a disconnect between the main campaign and local one. It's often difficult to get read across. My area is phenomenally Tory and I'm finding it difficult to get a feel for what's going on. My gut says that vote holding up not as good as 2010 but better than 05 is my take. We've lost a bit of ground in the area but surprisingly little.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Heavy rain forecast for Thursday, boost to UKIP
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    This new innovation is an example of why Survation are rapidly becoming one of my favourite pollsters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Amazing selfie atop Princess Tower Dubai
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sleazy broken Ukip on the slide.

    Single figures in the GE now nailed on.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

    From our Doug -

    Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

    Sleazy broken tories could finish Third.

    The job on Ukip has been effective - helped enormously by Ukip. Gravity is already having an effect.
    You can see the numbers at the top of the page?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Easterross said:

    Things are shaping up nicely for the Tories to win on Thursday in the Euro elections.

    How do you read that from these polls? Again genuine question not sarcasm. These polls seem to indicate either Labour or (more likely) UKIP with Tory 3rd.
    I think he meant things are shaping up nicely for the Tories in the same way things were shaping up nicely for Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid just before they took on the whole Bolivian Army.
    23% would be a decent result for the Tories.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TGOHF said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sleazy broken Ukip on the slide.

    Single figures in the GE now nailed on.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

    From our Doug -

    Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

    Sleazy broken tories could finish Third.

    The job on Ukip has been effective - helped enormously by Ukip. Gravity is already having an effect.
    We will see when tories start getting 36/37% regular in polls,nose bleed time that.

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Tonight's an exciting night for political polling.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    ToryJim said:

    Blueberry said:

    Tory Jim - FPT - thanks. I'm such news junkie I find it hard to imagine how imagine how the average person perceives it all. Bit like Gogglebox I suppose.

    When you are fighting an election you can get a disconnect between the main campaign and local one. It's often difficult to get read across. My area is phenomenally Tory and I'm finding it difficult to get a feel for what's going on. My gut says that vote holding up not as good as 2010 but better than 05 is my take. We've lost a bit of ground in the area but surprisingly little.
    TJ - to whom are the Tories losing support and what type of seat is involved?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/Independent launch new poll series: Lab narrowly ahead in key marginals http://t.co/XE8rGXGuEp
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Marginals Poll Alert

    In the first in the series of ComRes / Independent Battlebus polls of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, Labour holds a narrow two point lead over the Conservatives as UKIP’s rise sees both parties share of the vote fall from the General Election.


    Con 33% (-4)
    Lab 35% (-2)
    LD 8% (-10)
    UKIP 17% (+14%)
    Other 7% (+2)

    Figures in brackets show changes since the 2010 General Election results across the constituencies.

    TSE: Which means by reckoning the Tories are doing better in the marginals than they are nationally, which contradicts the past Lord A marginal polling.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    ComRes marginals:

    Despite Labour leading across the 40 marginal constituencies as a whole, both main parties are ahead in the seats where they are currently incumbent. In current Tory seats, they lead Labour 35% to 33%, while in current Labour seats, Ed Miliband’s party leads 39% to the Conservatives’ 31%.

    That makes the odds on the top 20 or so Conservative-held Labour targets look pretty juicy.

    Edit: I see TSE got there a few seconds before me!
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    http://ht.ly/x4vIm

    LABOUR NARROWLY AHEAD IN KEY (Lab-Con) MARGINAL SEATS
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    PB Hodges.....get stuck in!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Worrying poll for Labour: two points behind in 25 most marginal Tory seats http://bit.ly/1o3emO4

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    ComRes marginals:

    Despite Labour leading across the 40 marginal constituencies as a whole, both main parties are ahead in the seats where they are currently incumbent. In current Tory seats, they lead Labour 35% to 33%, while in current Labour seats, Ed Miliband’s party leads 39% to the Conservatives’ 31%.

    That makes the odds on the top 20 or so Conservative-held Labour targets look pretty juicy.

    Edit: I see TSE got there a few seconds before me!

    To be fair, I've had advanced sight of this poll for the last few hours.

    But I wasn't allowed to bet on it 'cause of the embargo.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Have a look at the Lib Dem figure. You can still back 50 or fewer deposit losses at 2/1. That looks like a bargain to me, given that the one thing that's consistent between Lord Ashcroft's poll of the marginals and this one is that the Lib Dems polled 8% in these seats.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    PfP - this is a hypersafe Tory area 27/30 council seats and MP sitting on a 18k majority. We are losing roughly 5/500 votes which seem to be 1 to UKIP 2 to Lab and 2 to abstention however we are picking up ex LD votes and a straight switch from Labour or 2. My guess is that if GE was now majority would be static in percentage terms and probably down to 15.5-16k due to turnout. But this is a hyper safe seat so proportionally fewer swing voters, may be more churn in other seats.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Detailed results of ComRes "Battlebus" Lab/Con marginals poll (with data tables). http://tinyurl.com/q8q9yuu
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those wishing to contemplate seat betting may find this useful:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html

    The odds are a little out of date, but not so much that it's antique.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    compouter2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    PB Hodges.....get stuck in!
    Do you suffer from some form or Tourette' s syndrome? It's just that you seem to randomly and repeatedly spout the same comment for no apparent reason.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    TheIndyPolitics ‏@IndyPolitics 4m

    ComRes “Battlebus” poll for The Independent points to Cameron holding on as PM next year http://ind.pn/1lMiugr
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    corporeal said:

    Tonight's an exciting night for political polling.

    And a bloody nightmare for Euro punters - ; )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    SimonStClare said:

    corporeal said:

    Tonight's an exciting night for political polling.

    And a bloody nightmare for Euro punters - ; )
    And a bloody nightmare for those who edit politicalbetting websites.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    saddened said:

    compouter2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    PB Hodges.....get stuck in!
    Do you suffer from some form or Tourette' s syndrome? It's just that you seem to randomly and repeatedly spout the same comment for no apparent reason.

    PB Hodges.......get stuck in! ;-)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The excellent Anthony Wells is on the case, advising caution:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8828
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Looking at the Survation, table 5, p.8.

    Labour and UKIP are a perfect mirror on gender imbalance. UKIP has 35% M, 23% F, Labour has 23% M, 35% F.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Where's Nick P when you need him?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    Precisely the point I've been hammering home since the Tories' share of the vote started climbing recently.
    There has been an inbuilt assumption within an overwhelming majority of the PB.com community from OGH downwards that the Tories were set to lose at least 50 seats in next year's GE - the only issue in doubt was the extent to which this figure might be exceeded. All this despite the very smart Stephen Fisher and Rod Crosby's favourite election gurus, whose names escape me, forecasting that the Tories will finish well ahead of Labour in terms of seats and currently showing them within spitting distance of winning an overall majority.
    There must be some cracking value in at least a number of the so-called Tory marginals - hence my request to antifrank to come up with his 20 best buys.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    Now that's just mean. Actually, I would rate his chances of winning Broxtowe as pretty decent even on a result like this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    Precisely the point I've been hammering home since the Tories' share of the vote started climbing recently.
    There has been an inbuilt assumption within an overwhelming majority of the PB.com community from OGH downwards that the Tories were set to lose at least 50 seats in next year's GE - the only issue in doubt was the extent to which this figure might be exceeded. All this despite the very smart Stephen Fisher and Rod Crosby's favourite election gurus, whose names escape me, forecasting that the Tories will finish well ahead of Labour in terms of seats and currently showing them within spitting distance of winning an overall majority.
    There must be some cracking value in at least a number of the so-called Tory marginals - hence my request to antifrank to come up with his 20 best buys.
    I am so going to be Mr Unpopular in the morning in the Ladbrokes shop next door to Piccadilly train station as I stick money on quite a few marginal seats.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TGOHF said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sleazy broken Ukip on the slide.

    Single figures in the GE now nailed on.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/05/the-smears-against-nigel-farage-and-ukip-have-reached-spectacular-depths/

    From our Doug -

    Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party

    Sleazy broken tories could finish Third.

    The job on Ukip has been effective - helped enormously by Ukip. Gravity is already having an effect.
    It's been so effective that the Guardian have it as their leader:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/20/labour-tory-poll-ratings-farage-attacks
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation includes a local elections question.

    Con 24%, Lab 36%, LD 13%, UKIP 18%, Green 3%.

    Table 14, p.17
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    corporeal said:

    Tonight's an exciting night for political polling.

    And a bloody nightmare for Euro punters - ; )
    And a bloody nightmare for those who edit politicalbetting websites.
    You're doing a cracking job TSE - good practice for the next GE ; )
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    PfP - I'll be on the case on Friday. I'm tied up till then, unfortunately.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    corporeal said:

    Tonight's an exciting night for political polling.

    And a bloody nightmare for Euro punters - ; )
    And a bloody nightmare for those who edit politicalbetting websites.
    You're doing a cracking job TSE - good practice for the next GE ; )
    I don't want to even contemplate that.

    I just know I'll make a horrendous typo (or prematurely publish an embargoed poll) that will cause anarchy, chaos and bedlam.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    And now to beat the scottish subsample genre.
    ComRes marginalls North East (sample 32, only 1 marginal Stockton South): UKIP 36% , CON 33%, LAB 24%, LD 2%.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    You called? :-)

    Intriguing - we'll be getting Ashcroft on the same subject at the weekend IIRC?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    antifrank said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    Now that's just mean. Actually, I would rate his chances of winning Broxtowe as pretty decent even on a result like this.
    Pretty decent: Yes of course.

    2/7? Well, maybe not.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    NickPalmer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    You called? :-)

    Intriguing - we'll be getting Ashcroft on the same subject at the weekend IIRC?

    We will.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    For example, you can get 5/6 on the Tories getting the most votes at the GE, or 6/5 on the Tories getting most seats, or 11/10 on Dave being PM after the next GE.

    Surely for the above to happen the Tories have to retain Broxtowe?

    But you can get 11/4 on the Tories retaining Broxtowe.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    edited May 2014
    The Brooks cartoon is brilliant...

    twitter.com/polittiscribe/status/468871496887451648
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    Now that's just mean. Actually, I would rate his chances of winning Broxtowe as pretty decent even on a result like this.
    Pretty decent: Yes of course.

    2/7? Well, maybe not.

    On such polling, not. But I am fairly sceptical about all marginals polling.

    My point about the Lib Dem deposits is serious. There is a corollary. If the Lib Dems are polling 8% in 40 seats where they are third (a finding that both Lord Ashcroft and ComRes agree on), they have suffered a disproportionate swing in seats where they were second or first.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For example, you can get 5/6 on the Tories getting the most votes at the GE, or 6/5 on the Tories getting most seats, or 11/10 on Dave being PM after the next GE.

    Surely for the above to happen the Tories have to retain Broxtowe?

    But you can get 11/4 on the Tories retaining Broxtowe.

    No. You're overlooking the seats that the Conservatives could gain from the Lib Dems.

    I know it's awfully gauche to quote yourself, never mind to do so twice in one thread, but here goes:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-conservatives-overall-chances.html
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    anotherDave said:

    Survation includes a local elections question.

    Con 24%, Lab 36%, LD 13%, UKIP 18%, Green 3%.

    Table 14, p.17

    It requires quite a leap of faith to believe that those who have votes in both local and Euro Elections are actually going to vote so diversely as is suggested by tonight's two Survation polls. My own guess is that the UKIP vote will be weaker in those strongly Labour supported local areas. If the national vote between UKIP and Labour is very close this factor could prove crucial in determining the outright vote winner.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    For example, you can get 5/6 on the Tories getting the most votes at the GE, or 6/5 on the Tories getting most seats, or 11/10 on Dave being PM after the next GE.

    Surely for the above to happen the Tories have to retain Broxtowe?

    But you can get 11/4 on the Tories retaining Broxtowe.

    No. You're overlooking the seats that the Conservatives could gain from the Lib Dems.

    I know it's awfully gauche to quote yourself, never mind to do so twice in one thread, but here goes:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-conservatives-overall-chances.html
    Very good point re the Con gains from the Lib Dems.

    That's not gauche, my record is quoting myself 11 times in one thread.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Bad news for anti UKIPers:
    ComRes marginalls, decision to vote:
    Definitely decided: UKIP 60%, LAB 52%, CON 49%, LD 25%
    May change mind: UKIP 31%, LAB 32%, CON 37%, LD 47%

    UKIP voters most determined to vote UKIP, LD voters least determined to vote LD.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    antifrank said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    antifrank said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Where's Nick P when you need him?

    Now that's just mean. Actually, I would rate his chances of winning Broxtowe as pretty decent even on a result like this.
    Pretty decent: Yes of course.

    2/7? Well, maybe not.

    On such polling, not. But I am fairly sceptical about all marginals polling.

    My point about the Lib Dem deposits is serious. There is a corollary. If the Lib Dems are polling 8% in 40 seats where they are third (a finding that both Lord Ashcroft and ComRes agree on), they have suffered a disproportionate swing in seats where they were second or first.
    Not necessarily. They may be disproportionately suffering in non-marginal seats.

    (The case for this, in marginal seats they're likely to have been squeezed already, while in non-marginals they would've had a larger softer vote to lose. And there are a lot more safe seats than marginal ones).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    anotherDave said:

    Looking at the Survation, table 5, p.8.

    Labour and UKIP are a perfect mirror on gender imbalance. UKIP has 35% M, 23% F, Labour has 23% M, 35% F.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf

    The UKIP local election profile is interesting. Big gender imbalance, but not a big age imbalance. Support seems quite even across age groups. 18-34 16%, 35-54 19%, 55+ 18%

    Of those intending to vote UKIP in the EU vote, about 60% are intending to vote UKIP in the locals, 13% LD, 10% Lab, 8% Con.



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    My final point on the ComRes - This is going to be a regular thing, so we'll be able to analyse regular trends etc.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    I am probably having a senior moment, but given around 1000 people were sampled over 40 constituencies, surely this means just 25 people were sampled on each patch?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    valleyboy said:

    I am probably having a senior moment, but given around 1000 people were sampled over 40 constituencies, surely this means just 25 people were sampled on each patch?

    Roughly speaking, yes.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    I don't buy the UKIP 17% figure in these Con / Lab marginal seats - surely that will be squeezed. The recent UKIP surge has been at the expense of Labour and I expect some of this to unwind back to Labour as we approach GE 2015.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    murali_s said:

    I don't buy the UKIP 17% figure in these Con / Lab marginal seats - surely that will be squeezed. The recent UKIP surge has been at the expense of Labour and I expect some of this to unwind back to Labour as we approach GE 2015.

    It does fit in with the national polling though, UKIP up 10-15% on their GE score.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    By the way UKIPs candidate for Stockton South is Ted Strike.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqLjBJPi1Jw
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Speedy said:

    And now to beat the scottish subsample genre.
    ComRes marginalls North East (sample 32, only 1 marginal Stockton South): UKIP 36% , CON 33%, LAB 24%, LD 2%.

    And in the E Midlands, where the marginals are Broxtowe, Sherwood and not many more, Labour is ahead by 5. Let's hear it for subsamples.

    But the more serious point is the soft LibDem vote. For reasons we've discussed before, we weren't able to squeeze it last time. This time, not only don't they have a GE campaign strategy, they don't even have a candidate yet. The question is (other things being equal) whether we can squeeze 1% more of it than the incumbent. As there's 17% to squeeze, that looks reasonable.

    But we'll get a further hint on Sunday when the Broxtowe borough result, which has slightly fairly similar boundaries to the constituency.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited May 2014
    ComRes marginals polls is an amazingly exciting development.

    When you think how much of a joke ComRes were back in the day - They are a bit like Skoda after VW took over!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    Precisely the point I've been hammering home since the Tories' share of the vote started climbing recently.
    There has been an inbuilt assumption within an overwhelming majority of the PB.com community from OGH downwards that the Tories were set to lose at least 50 seats in next year's GE - the only issue in doubt was the extent to which this figure might be exceeded. All this despite the very smart Stephen Fisher and Rod Crosby's favourite election gurus, whose names escape me, forecasting that the Tories will finish well ahead of Labour in terms of seats and currently showing them within spitting distance of winning an overall majority.
    There must be some cracking value in at least a number of the so-called Tory marginals - hence my request to antifrank to come up with his 20 best buys.
    I am so going to be Mr Unpopular in the morning in the Ladbrokes shop next door to Piccadilly train station as I stick money on quite a few marginal seats.
    TSE - Don't you have an online account with the Magic Sign? I feel sure that their constituency betting markets are open 24/7.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Speedy said:

    By the way UKIPs candidate for Stockton South is Ted Strike.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqLjBJPi1Jw

    LIKE
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Interesting article in the "Beebs" politics section.
    Don't worry, It isn't An Ed is Crap, Cameron is an idiot type thing.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27437799
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Great film on Newsnight about the fight between Labour and UKIP in Rotherham... will be interesting on Thursday

    Young voters seem to be voting UKIp.. older Labour loyals split

    Paxman looks incredulous when Hilary Benn says "Ed is a man of the people"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I'm backing Nick at 1-2.

    But I'm also backing the Tories in Sherwood at 5-1.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    ComRes marginals polls is an amazingly exciting development.

    Indeed - weren't they the firm OGH chose to ignore because they hadn't at the time signed up to all the industry standard regulations?

    Mind you on the other side of the coin there were those *cough* who were of the opinion that the then new boys on the block Angus Reid were going to set the polling world alight!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Betting related post, if that ComRes poll is accurate, then there's a whole load of Tory held marginals that are worth backing.

    Precisely the point I've been hammering home since the Tories' share of the vote started climbing recently.
    There has been an inbuilt assumption within an overwhelming majority of the PB.com community from OGH downwards that the Tories were set to lose at least 50 seats in next year's GE - the only issue in doubt was the extent to which this figure might be exceeded. All this despite the very smart Stephen Fisher and Rod Crosby's favourite election gurus, whose names escape me, forecasting that the Tories will finish well ahead of Labour in terms of seats and currently showing them within spitting distance of winning an overall majority.
    There must be some cracking value in at least a number of the so-called Tory marginals - hence my request to antifrank to come up with his 20 best buys.
    I am so going to be Mr Unpopular in the morning in the Ladbrokes shop next door to Piccadilly train station as I stick money on quite a few marginal seats.
    TSE - Don't you have an online account with the Magic Sign? I feel sure that their constituency betting markets are open 24/7.
    I do, but some online accounts restrict me to small amounts, but in shops, I can get away with more.

    Prime Example, Publicity Shy Paddy Power online let me stake a maximum of £4.14 on Maria Miller as next cabinet minister out.

    But the Paddy Power shop in Piccadilly Gardens let me stake £40 on the same bet.

    On that note, I'm off to bed, if I stay up any longer, I just know I'll end up dreaming about Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage and swingback.
This discussion has been closed.