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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI
As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote.
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New @Survation awareness filter is main driver behind @UKIP lead. Comes back to their supporters caring more.
Final Survation Euro-poll: Ukip 32%, Labour 27%, Tories 23%, LibDems 9%, Greens 4%.
Where as neil got these numbers from ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
Final Survation: 29-29 UKIP-Labour (all voters) but UKIP stretch to 5 point lead (32-27-23) on differential turnout http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf …
Survation have applied a weighting based on both likelihood to vote, and awareness of what day the poll is on, those are the results.
(Boosts UKIP due to their supporters greater passion for Euro elections).
Single figures in the GE now nailed on.
Farce descending to new level. Cameron now criticised for NOT calling Farage a racist. It just gets dafter by the day.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/cameron-fails-to-call-ukip-leader-farage-a-racist-1-3416263
I'm a bit wary about basing predictions on it, but very interested to see how well it holds up in the post-mortem.
From our Doug -
Inevitably the lowest attacks have been saved until the week of the election. For months now the neat drip-feeding of anti-UKIP stories from Conservative Campaign Headquarters direct to the UK press has done everything possible to depict UKIP as a racist, xenophobic, bigoted party
Sleazy broken tories could finish Third.
In my defence, I'm hugely distracted this evening.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/19/newsnight-paxman-interview-berlusconi-_n_5354927.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour
In the first in the series of ComRes / Independent Battlebus polls of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, Labour holds a narrow two point lead over the Conservatives as UKIP’s rise sees both parties share of the vote fall from the General Election.
Con 33% (-4)
Lab 35% (-2)
LD 8% (-10)
UKIP 17% (+14%)
Other 7% (+2)
Figures in brackets show changes since the 2010 General Election results across the constituencies.
TSE: Which means by reckoning the Tories are doing better in the marginals than they are nationally, which contradicts the past Lord A marginal polling.
Despite Labour leading across the 40 marginal constituencies as a whole, both main parties are ahead in the seats where they are currently incumbent. In current Tory seats, they lead Labour 35% to 33%, while in current Labour seats, Ed Miliband’s party leads 39% to the Conservatives’ 31%.
That makes the odds on the top 20 or so Conservative-held Labour targets look pretty juicy.
Edit: I see TSE got there a few seconds before me!
LABOUR NARROWLY AHEAD IN KEY (Lab-Con) MARGINAL SEATS
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Worrying poll for Labour: two points behind in 25 most marginal Tory seats http://bit.ly/1o3emO4
But I wasn't allowed to bet on it 'cause of the embargo.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
The odds are a little out of date, but not so much that it's antique.
ComRes “Battlebus” poll for The Independent points to Cameron holding on as PM next year http://ind.pn/1lMiugr
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8828
Labour and UKIP are a perfect mirror on gender imbalance. UKIP has 35% M, 23% F, Labour has 23% M, 35% F.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/May-voting-poll-Mirror-tables.pdf
There has been an inbuilt assumption within an overwhelming majority of the PB.com community from OGH downwards that the Tories were set to lose at least 50 seats in next year's GE - the only issue in doubt was the extent to which this figure might be exceeded. All this despite the very smart Stephen Fisher and Rod Crosby's favourite election gurus, whose names escape me, forecasting that the Tories will finish well ahead of Labour in terms of seats and currently showing them within spitting distance of winning an overall majority.
There must be some cracking value in at least a number of the so-called Tory marginals - hence my request to antifrank to come up with his 20 best buys.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/20/labour-tory-poll-ratings-farage-attacks
Con 24%, Lab 36%, LD 13%, UKIP 18%, Green 3%.
Table 14, p.17
I just know I'll make a horrendous typo (or prematurely publish an embargoed poll) that will cause anarchy, chaos and bedlam.
ComRes marginalls North East (sample 32, only 1 marginal Stockton South): UKIP 36% , CON 33%, LAB 24%, LD 2%.
Intriguing - we'll be getting Ashcroft on the same subject at the weekend IIRC?
2/7? Well, maybe not.
Surely for the above to happen the Tories have to retain Broxtowe?
But you can get 11/4 on the Tories retaining Broxtowe.
twitter.com/polittiscribe/status/468871496887451648
My point about the Lib Dem deposits is serious. There is a corollary. If the Lib Dems are polling 8% in 40 seats where they are third (a finding that both Lord Ashcroft and ComRes agree on), they have suffered a disproportionate swing in seats where they were second or first.
I know it's awfully gauche to quote yourself, never mind to do so twice in one thread, but here goes:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-conservatives-overall-chances.html
That's not gauche, my record is quoting myself 11 times in one thread.
ComRes marginalls, decision to vote:
Definitely decided: UKIP 60%, LAB 52%, CON 49%, LD 25%
May change mind: UKIP 31%, LAB 32%, CON 37%, LD 47%
UKIP voters most determined to vote UKIP, LD voters least determined to vote LD.
(The case for this, in marginal seats they're likely to have been squeezed already, while in non-marginals they would've had a larger softer vote to lose. And there are a lot more safe seats than marginal ones).
Of those intending to vote UKIP in the EU vote, about 60% are intending to vote UKIP in the locals, 13% LD, 10% Lab, 8% Con.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqLjBJPi1Jw
But the more serious point is the soft LibDem vote. For reasons we've discussed before, we weren't able to squeeze it last time. This time, not only don't they have a GE campaign strategy, they don't even have a candidate yet. The question is (other things being equal) whether we can squeeze 1% more of it than the incumbent. As there's 17% to squeeze, that looks reasonable.
But we'll get a further hint on Sunday when the Broxtowe borough result, which has slightly fairly similar boundaries to the constituency.
When you think how much of a joke ComRes were back in the day - They are a bit like Skoda after VW took over!
Don't worry, It isn't An Ed is Crap, Cameron is an idiot type thing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27437799
Young voters seem to be voting UKIp.. older Labour loyals split
Paxman looks incredulous when Hilary Benn says "Ed is a man of the people"
But I'm also backing the Tories in Sherwood at 5-1.
Prime Example, Publicity Shy Paddy Power online let me stake a maximum of £4.14 on Maria Miller as next cabinet minister out.
But the Paddy Power shop in Piccadilly Gardens let me stake £40 on the same bet.
On that note, I'm off to bed, if I stay up any longer, I just know I'll end up dreaming about Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage and swingback.