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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place
In the past fortnight the political specialist at Ladbrokes, Shadsy, has launched a blog called “The Political Bookie – NEWS FROM LADBROKES’ POLITICAL ODDS DESK”.
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Eurovote tables for Daily Record Survation poll
Voting intentions for European Parliament Election (excluding Don’t Knows)
LAB - 26% (- 3%)
CON - 13% (NC)
SNP - 37% (- 2%)
LD - 6% (+ 1%)
UKIP - 10% (+ 3%)
Green - 6% (+ 3%)
BNP - 1% (NC)
Another Party - 1% (NC)
Ladbrokes - 2014 UK Euro Parliamentary Elections - Scotland
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4 (4/9 at BetVictor)
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 6/4 (7/4 at Victor Chandler)
UKIP to win 0 seats 1/2
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10 (1/7 at BetVictor)
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/5 (1/4 at Hills)
Labour to win more votes than SNP 7/2
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-05-18/ukip-made-favourites-to-win-euro-elections/
That's also what I want to happen however, so there could be some wishful thinking going on. :-)
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-sells-fairer-britain-to-voters-9393071.html
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
Tempted by the 7/4 a Scottish UKIP seat. Any thoughts, fellow PBers? (S DIckson already duly noted.)
Both powered by wind. Which is better for Britain?
It might be worth starting to take UKIP on: the fact is that there is no reason to feel afraid or worried if some Romanian men move in next door to you (the chances of them being criminals are vanishingly small); 38% of the UK's population is not made up of immigrants; and 26 million foreign people are not after your job.
UKIP is a neo-liberal party whose leadership comprises people with very right wing economic views. There's nothing wrong with that. But they need to be confronted on it. What kind of UK does UKIP want? if it's just about pulling out of the EU it's nothing more than a pressure group and not worth voting for - especially as the Tories will give you a vote on EU membership by 2017. If it is a political party it must have policies, views and opinions on the full range of subjects. So what are they?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10839644/Salmond-accused-of-watering-down-shambolic-currency-policy.html
Oh .... and no Ukip Scottish seat.
I think his point on betting on ties is a good one. 4-1 is good for two LD seats.
Meanwhile someone asks on twitter if Labour is actually fighting the Euro elections since they don't appear to mention them anywhere in their wonderful EPBs.
Do we get to claim we are tired if we drop a clanger and make a racist or sexist remark?
Ed has promised big pay rises for the low paid. Has he even considered who will pay for them? Maybe he is like the Labour voting employees in a company I have come across who when told they could either have a higher pay rise or avoid redundancies, started nominating who should be sacked. If there are any business owners who still support Labour, maybe one should offer Ed some work experience given that he has never had a real job in the real world. He might then learn where the magic money tree grows.
Just for a bit perspective here are Hill's figures from yesterday:
WILLIAM HILL have cut their odds for Ukip to poll more votes than any other Party at this week's Euro elections from 8/15 to 2/5 favourites. 'Despite seemingly daily attacks on Ukip by rival Parties and the media, political punters continue to make Nigel Farage's Party red hot favourites to emerge victorious' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
'40% of all bets struck and 70% of stake money have been for UKIP; 30% and 24% respectively for Labour; 22% and 5% for the Tories and 8% and 1% for the Lib Dems' said Sharpe.
EURO ELECTIONS - WILLIAM HILL latest odds....2/5 UKIP; 11/4 LABOUR; 6/1 CONSERVATIVES; 250/1 LIB DEMS.
Labour/Tory/LD/UKIP/BNP - 56%
Is that the referendum outcome right there?
@patrickwintour: UKIP candidate calls for pro EU political leaders to be hung for treason by neck until dead. Says sorry not media trained
Indeed so.
Effectively Ukip would need to outpoll the Conservatives in Scotland to take a seat and that's a non runner. Scotland is looking like 3:2:1 with the SNP taking up the LibDem slack with an extra seat.
It should be hanged.
Turnout will double next year, but the other 35% will be those less obsessed with politics and europe.
One further thought: UKIP shows how European we are, right wing anti immigrant parties are flavor of the month across the EU. How are the True Finns, Golden Dawn and Le Pens party going to do?
Your views on Scottish seat most welcome.
Your other views you are perfectly entitled to, Sweetie....... [Exits with flourish.]
What would be rather seismic is if Labour come 3rd - and they're only just ahead of Dave in the polls. That would leave Ed Microband with some serious splaining to do.
And they've been polling @ 10% in Scotland!
The 36 per cent for which the SNP is apparently heading in the Euro election is much the same as the 34 per cent inclined to vote Yes in the referendum.
Yet the former figure looks good, the latter bad.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/ukip-success-would-push-1-in-5-scots-to-back-yes-1-3414996
Proved you wrong!
In the meantime our Poll of Polls has now eased down to 42% Yes, 58% No. It is nearly two months since the No side has been that far ahead.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/not-the-best-of-mornings-for-yes-new-icm-and-panelbase-polls/
You kip if you want to – but only one party can offer real change
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10839796/You-kip-if-you-want-to-but-only-one-party-can-offer-real-change.html
Men are hanged.
Shadsy is always worth reading.
I hope he blogs on a regular basis.
Perhaps we should extend it and offer real world jobs to Cameron and Osborne.
So far that pair have had half a trillion quid from the magic money tree.
:-)
With Mr. Antifrank and now Mr. Shadsy starting to blog, we're spoiled for choice. Of course, there's only one place to go for blind stabs in the dark cunning insight into F1
F1: Jack Brabham has died:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27465380
"He remains the only man in history to have designed, built and driven a championship-winning car."
Obviously EU and non EU would be considered at one, and of course non racist. Would it mean keeping net immigration at the present 200 000 or so? Or would this be reduced to the tens of thousands? If so how is this to be achieved in terms of priority? Income? Asylum? Education? Family reunification? Ending of Student Visas?
In short what is UKIPs policy for controlling immigration?
PS Vanilla being troublesome today...
I have heard some men in China are Hung Lo, any truth to this?
SNP 36% (-1)
Labour 27% (-1)
Conservatives 13% (+2)
UKIP 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
Greens 7% (+3)
Can anyone come up with any good reasons why Natural England are pushing for the removal of protection on birds nests?
http://tompride.wordpress.com/2014/05/18/heres-the-real-reason-the-tories-are-allowing-the-destruction-of-robin-eggs-and-nests/
Here is a hint. A big hint. The elephants is the room are the SCON and the SLAB shares.
Close observers of Alex Salmond will get another hint if they look very carefully at what he has been saying about UKIP in recent days. However, it requires intelligence and an astute political mind. So, it'll be beyond the abilities of the usual suspects.
Though I've always been surprised at the number of working age PBers who seem to spend most of the day here.
And on the subject I'd better do something work related now as well.
Have a good day everyone.
Is "stuffed" an official psephologist term?
South East: pretty much nailed on, so long as they beat the Greens...
London: 66% shot - likely to outpoll their national share here, but need to get 10-11% to realistically expect to get a seat.
South West: need to be ahead of the Greens, and to have Natrass/No2EU split a little away from the UKIP share. With only 6 MEPs available here, the Libs probably need to poll 14% - which is no better than a 50/50 shot.
North West: there are 8 MEP slots available and some areas of good LibDem strength. But LibDems are still unlikely to outpoll their national share by more than 1-2% - so, say, 10% in total, which is probably not enough unless there is a very high other share. 33% chance.
Scotland - no chance
East of England - no chance
West Midlands - no chance
East Midlands - no chance
Yorkshire - no chance
My guess would be 9% national share, and probably 3 of the 4 seats listed above. I think the high score for 'others' (so long as the Greens score slightly less than the LibDems) is likely to help the LibDems avoid total meltdown.
It is those damned commie birds that are holding up house building, and therefore risking the economy.
I mean....."robin redbreast"? "redshank"?,,,says all you need to know really.
PB is a great way to break the day up. My concentration levels are very low, so when I am doing work-related writing and thinking I can only do an hour or so before I need some mind balm. PB is it. Long may it continue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/27460832
Apparently the Lib Dems want Scotland (if No wins) to be able to set its own income tax rate.
Right.
"At an event hosted by the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, Mr Clegg will concede that the transfer of more powers would be subject to negotiation between the three main pro-UK parties.
But he will say that his party has been at the forefront in arguing for greater devolution."
Any chance people in England might get a say on this? Regional assemblies are unacceptable bullshit. An English Parliament with equal powers is the only way this sort of hokey-kokey, left foot out, right foot in approach to the UK could possibly be considered even remotely fair.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/18/bird-killing-call-robin-starling-mallard-splits-conservationists
The wording of the blog - 'birds such as robins and starlings' - would BTW imply to many birdy folk that passerines (songbirds, more or less) as a whole would be affected, but in fact the proposal document is a mixed bag of specific species each of which have some issue such as farming damage or whatever. The relevant section (p. 13) of the proposal document refers specifically to robins, starlings and pied wagtails - all apt to nest in holes/ventilation flues etc. and so a genuine H&S problem in this respect. The eggs may not be the problem but the nests can be. The statement is that the change will make it easier to deal with such instances without dealing with the bumf of a special licence
http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/Images/cl-consultation-document_tcm6-37389.pdf
Several of my friends have mentioned just how balmy PB is.
O/T Anyone know a good supplier of hearing aid batteries?
24 hours
If it is a NHS aid, you should be able to get the batteries free anyway from the hearing aid clinic.
Will there be a specific set of proposals for the real problem?
Those damned migrant birds that come over here and take the homes needed for our indigenous populations?
http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/Images/cl-consultation-document_tcm6-37389.pdf
Also worth mentioning the collared dove only came over in the 20th century, but now they're everywhere.
The claims on bird numbers are also wrong. Starling numbers have dropped by 80% in 35 years and are on the red list for conservation concerns.
I am afraid that the main reasons for this are to help builders and farmers ignore conservation issues.
twitter.com/roger_scully/status/468296429925330944
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/05/15/something-to-look-forward-to/
Bundled debt prices are now at pre crash levels.
When it comes to quotas... I would rather 300,000 who had capital, high flying jobs, were former members of the British forces or were being financially supported by their already-settled relatives, than 200,000 people at random.
I shall be grumpy if Labour finish third, but otherwise I'll be happy enough. It would be nice if the Greens beat the Lib Dems too.
BNP lead candidate in the NE on the wireless this morning. Said that if the BNP form the next government, they would take us out of the EU without a referendum. Trying to out-kip the kippers!
After that I expect I shall stop for the while. I only have so many thoughts, I'm afraid.
Party election broadcasts: uniting the nation in despair and embarrassment
Nobody wants to hear from a politician at 6.57pm, whether it is David Cameron droning on, Ed Miliband glad-handing sick pensioners or the ghost of Nick Clegg. And don't get me started on the fringe parties
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/18/party-election-broadcasts-despair-embarrassment-stuart-heritage
Said a thing on Friday; strongly stood by it on Saturday; apologised & blamed 'tiredness' on Sunday. It's turning into a Craig David tribute
South East Probable
London Probable
South West 50/50
North West reasonable chance
Yorkshire/Humberside reasonable chance
Others unlikely or no chance
Obviously there are wild variations from poll to poll because of the small size of the sub samples but the pattern is clear .
Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
However, the range of species is so small that it cannot be read as carte blanche for clearance of housedwelling species - for instance there is nothing about sparrows, swallows, house martins ... The implications are perhaps (a) that this is a precedent for wider extension of the carte blanche range of species in future proposals, or (b) NE are trying to meet central gmt targets for doing away with red tape ...
But I don't actually need them, it was a comic construct based upon the supposed mishearing of "balmy"
It;s a common form of "wit" in the knuckle dragging lowbrow pubs I frequent.
So it looks like I'll be voting on Thursday in the NE region after all. Received a Labour leaflet which had more to say about how well Durham CC is doing (despite no elections this year) than about Europe. I think the claim that we aren't really fighting the Euros rings true to an extent.