Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
MD. He claimed that a former UKIP council candidate from last year who had made homophobic comments was actually a serving UKIP councillor and then used that to attack Farage for allowing such people in the party. Farage rightly said he didn't believe he was a councillor and O'Brien insisted he was.
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
Mr. Mark, huzzah! You should rejoice in your survival, perhaps by a slightly late celebration of International Whisky Day.
Mr. P, once the state controls wages, prices, and rents all will be well as Comrade Miliband pilots the good ship Socialist Britannia through the choppy waters of decadent capitalism into the calm, beautiful seas of leftwing paradise.
BNP lead candidate in the NE on the wireless this morning. Said that if the BNP form the next government, they would take us out of the EU without a referendum. Trying to out-kip the kippers!
If the BNP form the next Government..... let me stop you right there.
Mr. Mark, huzzah! You should rejoice in your survival, perhaps by a slightly late celebration of International Whisky Day.
Mr. P, once the state controls wages, prices, and rents all will be well as Comrade Miliband pilots the good ship Socialist Britannia through the choppy waters of decadent capitalism into the calm, beautiful seas of leftwing paradise.
I guess I have to remember not everyone has such an in depth knowledge of good music that I do
I do not think the Euros matter too much. It is a stick to beat the established with as far as many voters are concerned, so not terribly predictive of next year. UKIP polled just 3.1% in 2010 a year after their 2009 performance.
Yep.
UKIPpers and Scats alike are defined by their naivety and self-importance. UKIPpers imagine that the outcome of the euros will send some sort of electrifying signal to Westminster, for example. UKIP won the euro elections! Get ready you LibLabcon bastards, UKIP are coming! Of course the reality is that the Yerpean parliament does nothing, the results do not matter, the composition of the assembly does not matter, and the elections to it are of nil significance. UKIP themselves cannot point to one single thing their MEPs have ever done in Strasbourg in British interests, yet persist in imagining that "winning" this kind of election will somehow make a difference.
The self-importance somewhat flows from this, but it's individual as well as corporate. Your e-UKIPper relates tales of how he explained the world to the other players at the golf club bar and won them all over, and after an hour they'd all agreed to vote UKIP, in the bag. Of course you would agree, wouldn't you, just to get rid of the twat? Your UKIPper bores others with his stupid views and at the end is wholly convinced everyone agrees with him.
To paraphrase Churchill, never in the field of human politics were so many so angry about so much for so long, because frankly, normal people have better things to do. When it comes to electoral success, I'm afraid UKIP are the Luftwaffe, and everyone else is collectively the RAF.
I found it puzzling too - even the document said that the numbers involved were very small (and some will have been disposed of sans a licence through genuine ignorance). It is much less trouble to keep the status quo than to mess around with new legislation. And if one were really worried about H&S then mass starling roosts such as the one (that used to be?) in Victoria Park in Leicester might have been mentioned (rightly or wrongly).
However, the range of species is so small that it cannot be read as carte blanche for clearance of housedwelling species - for instance there is nothing about sparrows, swallows, house martins ... The implications are perhaps (a) that this is a precedent for wider extension of the carte blanche range of species in future proposals, or (b) NE are trying to meet central gmt targets for doing away with red tape ...
Sparrows were put on the general licence list in the past (again after pressure from farmers and developers) but the numbers were so decimated (using the general rather than original specific latin meaning - just for our classicists.) that they had to be removed (very belatedly) and are now a species in serious trouble.
Swallows and House martins do not nest in areas that would cause farmers and builders issues which is another reason to be sceptical of this list. Both species would firmly fall into the possible H&S are which is given as the supposed reason for these changes but neither are included.
BNP lead candidate in the NE on the wireless this morning. Said that if the BNP form the next government, they would take us out of the EU without a referendum. Trying to out-kip the kippers!
If the BNP form the next Government..... let me stop you right there.
But just think of the comment is free threads if Nick Griffin becomes PM....
So Ed will give us price controls, rent controls and now wage controls. Rolf Harris is in the news with a "Jake the Peg" impression. There is a Star Wars film coming out. All we need now is the Bay City Rollers to headline the Commonwealth games opening ceremony and the 70s tribute will be complete
Bay city rollers and the opening ceremony at Parkhead - hmm there definitely is a link there - Alan Brazil mentions in his autobiography.
BNP lead candidate in the NE on the wireless this morning. Said that if the BNP form the next government, they would take us out of the EU without a referendum. Trying to out-kip the kippers!
If the BNP form the next Government..... let me stop you right there.
But just think of the comment is free threads if Nick Griffin becomes PM....
Surely if Griffin became PM comment would no longer be free in very short order.
BNP lead candidate in the NE on the wireless this morning. Said that if the BNP form the next government, they would take us out of the EU without a referendum. Trying to out-kip the kippers!
If the BNP form the next Government..... let me stop you right there.
But just think of the comment is free threads if Nick Griffin becomes PM....
Surely if Griffin became PM comment would no longer be free in very short order.
Surely polling day should be free of any such announcements, imagine what having the GDP figures released on election day could do (probably bugger all).
Also, Vanilla still being an arse, it doesn't understand the concept of 'keep me signed in'.. grr
Just going back to the BNP policy (i.e. no referendum), is this also the UKIP policy, or would they give us an in/out vote? They could use the argument that electing a Kipper government is a mandate for exit.
Off topic , I was very fortunate yesterday to see here in Sussex a European sub species Swallowtail butterfly . There was a small migration of them into the UK last year from which eggs were laid and larva overwintered successfully . They have been monitored on a number of sites over the winter and this spring and butterflies are now emerging . This is the first successful breeding since the 1940's . The Norfolk population of the Swallowtail (britannicus ) is a different sub species to the European ( gorganus ) .
"Though I've always been surprised at the number of working age PBers who seem to spend most of the day here."
PB is a great way to break the day up. My concentration levels are very low, so when I am doing work-related writing and thinking I can only do an hour or so before I need some mind balm. PB is it. Long may it continue.
Yeah, me too. I open up the same few windows and potter about a bit doing one thing or another. I think of PB as an amuse bouche between tasks.
Them foreign bite-sized hors d’œuvre, coming over here, preparing the guest for the meal ...
So there I was all set to cast my postal vote on Saturday...except I haven't been sent a postal vote pack :-( I blame the Labour council. So it looks like I'll be voting on Thursday in the NE region after all. Received a Labour leaflet which had more to say about how well Durham CC is doing (despite no elections this year) than about Europe. I think the claim that we aren't really fighting the Euros rings true to an extent.
Varies with the constituency, I think. Our latest newsletter includes this (which I wrote, so any errors are mine), for which we've had a lot of positive feedback (though no doubt others have silently used it for loo paper):
To be fair in regards to my earlier posts about wage "restraints good" It doesn't apply to bankers, politicians, upper management, etc, so therefore not really like Animal Farm in any sense at all.
Surely polling day should be free of any such announcements, imagine what having the GDP figures released on election day could do (probably bugger all).
Also, Vanilla still being an arse, it doesn't understand the concept of 'keep me signed in'.. grr
It logs me out, and then I refresh and I'm signed back in, bizarre.
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
You see this is what's so cowardly. If he's got some facts about why Romanians are criminal scum he should put them forward. This innuendo-followed-by-*innocent face* routine is just spineless.
Re LibDem seats: it's almost impossible to see how they can get more than 4. ....... My guess would be 9% national share, and probably 3 of the 4 seats listed above. I think the high score for 'others' (so long as the Greens score slightly less than the LibDems) is likely to help the LibDems avoid total meltdown.
9% would require the LDs to exceed their current euro polling average. In the last 6 polls listed on http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/european-elections the LD average is 7.5. That has dropped from the 8.8 they averaged in the previous 28 since Jan 2014.
Contrast with 2009 where the LD average was 15.2% in the final 5 polls and then had an actual vote of 13.80%.
Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
MD. He claimed that a former UKIP council candidate from last year who had made homophobic comments was actually a serving UKIP councillor and then used that to attack Farage for allowing such people in the party. Farage rightly said he didn't believe he was a councillor and O'Brien insisted he was.
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
FFS, Richard. I know you are worked up about this, but it doesn't matter whether he was a councillor or not.
UKIP was happy to run him as a candidate for councillor. If he was no longer in the party, that would be a fair point, but (AFAIK) he's still a member.
O'Brien made a silly error of detail, but it doesn't detract fom the main point. And you're smart enough to appreciate that.
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
You see this is what's so cowardly. If he's got some facts about why Romanians are criminal scum he should put them forward. This innuendo-followed-by-*innocent face* routine is just spineless.
ICYMI
Percentage of prisoners that are Romanian vs percentage of UKIP MEPs that were imprisoned after.
The late great URW advised me at the last Euro-elections that all the parties look like sells. He was bang on then, and I suspect he would be saying the same thing again now.
Someone has to win and I expect by default it will be UKIP. The "other others" will do better than priced into the markets, I think. I still think that the Greens are worth watching very carefully. This is a frivolous election and plenty of right-on voters will regard this as a free opportunity to burnish their progressive credentials.
Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
MD. He claimed that a former UKIP council candidate from last year who had made homophobic comments was actually a serving UKIP councillor and then used that to attack Farage for allowing such people in the party. Farage rightly said he didn't believe he was a councillor and O'Brien insisted he was.
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
FFS, Richard. I know you are worked up about this, but it doesn't matter whether he was a councillor or not.
UKIP was happy to run him as a candidate for councillor. If he was no longer in the party, that would be a fair point, but (AFAIK) he's still a member.
O'Brien made a silly error of detail, but it doesn't detract fom the main point. And you're smart enough to appreciate that.
Have the Conservatives thrown their bad eggs out of the Conservative Party?
You see this is what's so cowardly. If he's got some facts about why Romanians are criminal scum he should put them forward. This innuendo-followed-by-*innocent face* routine is just spineless.
ICYMI
Percentage of prisoners that are Romanian vs percentage of UKIP MEPs that were imprisoned after.
pic.twitter.com/vwiJdyuYsw
Those aren't even comparable statistics. They could have made the point far more effectively if they had had "Percentage of Romanian immigrants in the UK that have been imprisoned" versus "Percentage of current and former UKIP MEPs that have been imprisoned", that would have been funny. But "Percentage of prisoners that are Romanian", that's just stupid.
I'm not surprised though. The rabid anti-UKIP left generally are stupid people.
Surely polling day should be free of any such announcements, imagine what having the GDP figures released on election day could do (probably bugger all).
Also, Vanilla still being an arse, it doesn't understand the concept of 'keep me signed in'.. grr
It logs me out, and then I refresh and I'm signed back in, bizarre.
"You can log out any time you want, but you can never leave."
"Just when I though I was logged out, they pull me back in."
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
I bet that coin is one of those 50p pieces that celebrated Britain joining the EEC as well.
You see this is what's so cowardly. If he's got some facts about why Romanians are criminal scum he should put them forward. This innuendo-followed-by-*innocent face* routine is just spineless.
The normal mischaracterisation of UKIP words to smear them. He didn't say Romanians are criminal scum. He said there was a high level of criminality in Romania. IF you want a fact, here's one:
Surely polling day should be free of any such announcements, imagine what having the GDP figures released on election day could do (probably bugger all).
Also, Vanilla still being an arse, it doesn't understand the concept of 'keep me signed in'.. grr
It logs me out, and then I refresh and I'm signed back in, bizarre.
"You can log out any time you want, but you can never leave."
"Just when I though I was logged out, they pull me back in."
I want that to happen!! I check the bloody box but it doesn't want to keep me... literally telling me to get my coat, I suppose.
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
I'm not sure I'm following you. Are you denying that there was an agreement between Lib, Lab and Con to smear UKIP as racist?
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
I'm not sure I'm following you. Are you denying that there was an agreement between Lib, Lab and Con to smear UKIP as racist?
Well yes, it's not like David Cameron said years ago when UKIP were polling less than 2% were full of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly"
I don't understand all this talk of Romanians in prison. That's related to the the question "Given that X is in prison, what likelihood is there he is Romanian?". Logically Farage is concerned with "Given X is Romanian*, what likelihood is there he is a criminal?" That his being Romanian has raised the probability he is a criminal is, per se, neither here nor there: if the probability has gone from 0.1% to 0.2%, nevertheless one should not be nervous about having them as neighbours.
*I think the thrust of isam's argument yesterday was "a group of Romanian men" rather than "Romanian" only, but if there is a difference it has not been argued by others.
All Farage needed to say last Friday was what he has said today. Clearly he understands he crossed the line. The fact is that the vast majority of Romanian men in this country are not criminals and there is no need to feel concerned or anxious if a group of them move in next door to you. It is good that Farage has recognised that. Though I am not sure that being a bit tired is a good enough reason for having said what he said in the first place.
You see this is what's so cowardly. If he's got some facts about why Romanians are criminal scum he should put them forward. This innuendo-followed-by-*innocent face* routine is just spineless.
Well if you read the letter you would see he did present facts
The Populus poll has the Conservatives particularly high. That's the feature that looks most unusual about it.
It's the top end of their range, but it looks reasonable. As does the Labour share. The worry for Labour is that when EdM is on telly regularly the Labour vote share goes down. A few people on here called that a while ago. Hats off to them. It's still looking very much like a hung Parliament though.
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
I'm not sure I'm following you. Are you denying that there was an agreement between Lib, Lab and Con to smear UKIP as racist?
No he is saying UKIP require more R Tyndall's and fewer of their other supporters to make their presence felt.
The Populus poll has the Conservatives particularly high. That's the feature that looks most unusual about it.
It's the top end of their range, but it looks reasonable. As does the Labour share. The worry for Labour is that when EdM is on telly regularly the Labour vote share goes down. A few people on here called that a while ago. Hats off to them. It's still looking very much like a hung Parliament though.
The Populus poll has the Conservatives particularly high. That's the feature that looks most unusual about it.
It's the top end of their range, but it looks reasonable. As does the Labour share. The worry for Labour is that when EdM is on telly regularly the Labour vote share goes down. A few people on here called that a while ago. Hats off to them. It's still looking very much like a hung Parliament though.
The Populus poll has the Conservatives particularly high. That's the feature that looks most unusual about it.
It's the top end of their range, but it looks reasonable. As does the Labour share. The worry for Labour is that when EdM is on telly regularly the Labour vote share goes down. A few people on here called that a while ago. Hats off to them. It's still looking very much like a hung Parliament though.
I don't think it is purely about Ed. In the next week I have a thread coming up which tracks Lab and Con vote shares with economic optimism index with a variety of pollsters.
There's about a 2-4 month lag, but there's a definite correlation between them all.
All Farage needed to say last Friday was what he has said today. Clearly he understands he crossed the line. The fact is that the vast majority of Romanian men in this country are not criminals and there is no need to feel concerned or anxious if a group of them move in next door to you. It is good that Farage has recognised that. Though I am not sure that being a bit tired is a good enough reason for having said what he said in the first place.
The ex Express guy earning his corn - he knows a car crash when he sees one.
Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
MD. He claimed that a former UKIP council candidate from last year who had made homophobic comments was actually a serving UKIP councillor and then used that to attack Farage for allowing such people in the party. Farage rightly said he didn't believe he was a councillor and O'Brien insisted he was.
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
FFS, Richard. I know you are worked up about this, but it doesn't matter whether he was a councillor or not.
UKIP was happy to run him as a candidate for councillor. If he was no longer in the party, that would be a fair point, but (AFAIK) he's still a member.
O'Brien made a silly error of detail, but it doesn't detract fom the main point. And you're smart enough to appreciate that.
Nope it was a calculated lie which he reinforced when challenged.
Of course as I keep pointing out on here the main difference between the UKIP and the Tories is that when UKIP find unsavoury characters they drop them. The Tories do not and are happy to continue with homophobes and racists as councillors long after they have been identified as such.
Look to clean up your own party before you start attacking others.
While the poll may or not be correct, I would be wary of drawing any firm conclusions till at least a month after the "Euros". Large disturbances in the tea leaves need time to settle before a "reading" takes place.
Mr. Eagles, would any decline in optimism also lag?
I'm wondering what would happen if we had a rate rise in, say, March next year.
Edited extra bit: just thought of something obvious I missed. Do the electorate now consider the Conservatives as the only real party in office, Labour as the opposition, and the Lib Dems as the party it's fun to kick?
The blues are seeing a slight improvement but the Lib Dems remain in dire straits.
The Populus poll has the Conservatives particularly high. That's the feature that looks most unusual about it.
Checking UK polling report and Populus have had the Tories on 35% a few times in the last couple of months, so it's at the top of their range, but reflects that Populus look as though they give slightly higher scores to the Conservatives than other pollsters.
YouGov had a couple of 36% scores during the budget bounce, so a sustained rise to the mid-30s across the pollsters would be a significant change.
Mr. Eagles, would any decline in optimism also lag?
I'm wondering what would happen if we had a rate rise in, say, March next year.
Yes, economic optimism started falling in early 2012, around the time of Omnishambles budget, which then saw a period with huge Labour share of the vote and leads.
Mr Clegg did not lose his debates with Mr Farage. The viewers/voters are just bad tempered thickos.
"There is a view that Ukip is almost immune to rational political attack, since it represents a resentment with politics and modern life incapable of being shifted by statistics, reason or rhetoric. Clegg found himself caught out by this during his televised debates with Farage."
I am not sure about a rate rise. My puzzle is why Carney was using words like "unsustainable" and "risks" when it is usually the duty of the BOE to engender confidence. Will George call him to task over "talking down" the recovery?
Oh those poor LibDems ...things just keep on getting worse...how does OGH feel about incumbency now? Does he still believe the LDs can hang on in those seats?
Edited extra bit: just thought of something obvious I missed. Do the electorate now consider the Conservatives as the only real party in office, Labour as the opposition, and the Lib Dems as the party it's fun to kick?
Life frequently isn't fair. It does seem as though the Lib Dems often take a lot of the blame when the government does something unpopular, but the Tories take the credit when there is good news.
Is this a pattern seen in coalition governments on the Continent?
At Sutton Council the officers are running around like headless chickens today because there is serious talk of a hung council after Thursday with UKIP and Labour picking up seats off the LDs...Could be a worse night for the Orange people than initially thought...
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
I'm not sure I'm following you. Are you denying that there was an agreement between Lib, Lab and Con to smear UKIP as racist?
I doubt there was an official agreement. Labour would have done it through instinct. The Lib Dems would have started wanting to differentiate themselves as "in" versus "out", but then jumped on the bandwagon. The Conservatives detest UKIP as they see them as splitters, and not a few enjoy throwing the same smears at them that they themselves used to suffer in the late 90s/early 00s.
It's possible that Cameron/Clegg had a joint discussion about how each of their respective parties would tackle UKIP of course, even probably.
But, given how poor the main parties are at coordinating with one another when they do agree on something (e.g. Better Together) I doubt there was an official agreement to smear them as racist: correlation does not imply causation.
I don't understand all this talk of Romanians in prison. That's related to the the question "Given that X is in prison, what likelihood is there he is Romanian?". Logically Farage is concerned with "Given X is Romanian*, what likelihood is there he is a criminal?" That his being Romanian has raised the probability he is a criminal is, per se, neither here nor there: if the probability has gone from 0.1% to 0.2%, nevertheless one should not be nervous about having them as neighbours.
*I think the thrust of isam's argument yesterday was "a group of Romanian men" rather than "Romanian" only, but if there is a difference it has not been argued by others.
I've seen Bad Neighbours - a group of men of any description moving in next door to you would be unnerving.
I wish there was a way for UKIP to stop and start again.
It has gone, and is going horribly wrong for them. I would if I were them forget about the EU thing or/and do some research on what the more arcane problems with the EU (working time directive, some CAP provision or other). Go crazy on the non-immigration related elements of the EU. Give immigration a rest.
Then come out with a transport policy. A sensible one perhaps a bit out there but one that people can understand.
Then something on defence. Then health.
UKIP have an audience many of whom couldn't care less what the policies are and see them as a NOTA. Others see them as being an acceptable anti-immigration party for acceptable anti- or controlled immigration views. Others still are racist.
If UKIP wants to be a political party it needs to mellow out. Lose the immigration tag and broaden into a more rounded political party that Andrew Neil couldn't destroy any time he wanted to. Left or right or centre it matters not.
It all takes time but will be the difference between a longer-term new force in politics or a single-issue pressure group all too easily accused of racism and xenophobia.
My $0.02? They haven't got it in them, they are a one-trick pony in personnel and policies and they will fold (has long been my view) to sub-5% in GE2015. But I would be interested to be proved wrong.
Mr. Me, life isn't fair, but at the same time the Lib Dems have been keen to portray themselves as stopping the Tories killing quite so many babies, rather than talk about Lib Dem achievements, so perhaps it isn't surprising.
Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
MD. He claimed that a former UKIP council candidate from last year who had made homophobic comments was actually a serving UKIP councillor and then used that to attack Farage for allowing such people in the party. Farage rightly said he didn't believe he was a councillor and O'Brien insisted he was.
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
FFS, Richard. I know you are worked up about this, but it doesn't matter whether he was a councillor or not.
UKIP was happy to run him as a candidate for councillor. If he was no longer in the party, that would be a fair point, but (AFAIK) he's still a member.
O'Brien made a silly error of detail, but it doesn't detract fom the main point. And you're smart enough to appreciate that.
Nope it was a calculated lie which he reinforced when challenged.
Of course as I keep pointing out on here the main difference between the UKIP and the Tories is that when UKIP find unsavoury characters they drop them. The Tories do not and are happy to continue with homophobes and racists as councillors long after they have been identified as such.
Look to clean up your own party before you start attacking others.
O'Brien was clearly being dishonest about Sullivan. At the beginning of the interview he claimed " this is just in " as though Sullivan's comments were breaking news but later he wanted to know why Farage had done nothing about the same comments since they were from February.
The polls are all over the place. Wait until well after the Euros before betting would be my advice.
This big question is where do the Ukip votes go, assuming they don't all stay for the GE.
If they leave UKIP then I suspect a lot of them simply will not vote. This is one of the big errors in the Tory thinking. They believe that the move from Tory to UKIP is all about UKIP and nothing about the Tories. Whilst this would be flattering for UKIP if true I simply don't believe that is the case. Voters have abandoned the Tories becuse they do not like them. The arrival of UKIP allowed them an alternative place to put their vote but the assumption that if UKIP implode those votes will go back to the Tories is, I think, vastly over-optimistic.
I suspect many of those leaving UKIP will revert to NOTA.
I've been fiddling about with a D'Hondt calculator. It seems that in order for UKIP to get a Scottish MEP, the following criteria must be met:
A) BOTH (note: BOTH) the SNP and SLAB must poll UNDER 30%, and UKIP must poll at least 10%. Although the 2nd bit is perfectly feasible, the first bit is profoundly unlikely.
or
SLAB must lose an MEP.
or
C) UKIP must get more votes than SCON. Again, profoundly unlikely.
So, in summary, the most likely way for UKIP to get a Scottish MEP is for SLAB to poll under circa 18%. They got 21% last time round in 2009.
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
I'm not sure I'm following you. Are you denying that there was an agreement between Lib, Lab and Con to smear UKIP as racist?
Well yes, it's not like David Cameron said years ago when UKIP were polling less than 2% were full of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly"
The alliance was on the front page of the Guardian. There was a guest on Newsnight who was head of this cross-party anti-UKIP campaign. Do you need me to dig it out?
I'm hard pushed to think of anything that has happened over the past week to explain such a shift - what did I miss?
The Conservatives are gradually upticking in the polls on the back of the economic recovery. Labour are gradually declining as voters start to contemplate the general election in less than a year.
The 'true' position of both parties is probably parity in the mid-30s.
This does not mean a Conservative landslide election victory next year. It might mean GE2015 could look something like: Con-38, Lab-32, LD-12, UKIP-9, Other-9
Life frequently isn't fair. It does seem as though the Lib Dems often take a lot of the blame when the government does something unpopular, but the Tories take the credit when there is good news.
Since the LibDems spent much of the middle period of this parliament agonising and looking miserable about being in coalition, and attacking the government of which they are part, it is hardly a surprise that voters take them at their word.
It was a monumental strategic miscalculation: the LibDems should have been celebrating their historic achievement in what they used to call the 'New Politics', having helped set up the first successful peacetime coalition in living memory. Given that their entire political raison d'être for at least half a century has been based on wanting this form of government, it does seem eccentric that (with a handful of distinguished exceptions) they have been going around looking as though someone shot their pet hamster.
Are PBers taking UKIPpers on here less seriously of late? I know I'm taking any figures that ISAM comes up with a large amount of salt after his several orders of magnitude errors yesterday.
Some of the best quotes, in case you missed them: They spent the night singing the gypsy chorus from La Traviata to the accompaniment of bongo drums. And the police were next to useless. Wouldn't take details without my Freemasons membership number.
Mr. LP, I can see why you're outraged. The Anvil Chorus from Il Trovatore's much better.
You know you have a PR problem when you have to take out an advert saying you're not racists
I bet that coin is one of those 50p pieces that celebrated Britain joining the EEC as well.
Your e-UKIPper relates tales of how he explained the world to the other players at the golf club bar and won them all over, and after an hour they'd all agreed to vote UKIP, in the bag. Of course you would agree, wouldn't you, just to get rid of the twat?
It's more like a Flanders & Swann tribute: "twas on a Monday morning that the Polish gasman came to call."
Said a thing on Friday; strongly stood by it on Saturday; apologised & blamed 'tiredness' on Sunday. It's turning into a Craig David tribute.
They could have made the point far more effectively if they had had "Percentage of Romanian immigrants in the UK that have been imprisoned" versus "Percentage of current and former UKIP MEPs that have been imprisoned", that would have been funny.
I've been fiddling about with a D'Hondt calculator. It seems that in order for UKIP to get a Scottish MEP, the following criteria must be met:
A) BOTH (note: BOTH) the SNP and SLAB must poll UNDER 30%, and UKIP must poll at least 10%. Although the 2nd bit is perfectly feasible, the first bit is profoundly unlikely.
or
SLAB must lose an MEP.
or
C) UKIP must get more votes than SCON. Again, profoundly unlikely.
So, in summary, the most likely way for UKIP to get a Scottish MEP is for SLAB to poll under circa 18%. They got 21% last time round in 2009.
Surely all UKIP need to do is get > third of the SNP score, 11-13%.
Mr. Me, life isn't fair, but at the same time the Lib Dems have been keen to portray themselves as stopping the Tories killing quite so many babies, rather than talk about Lib Dem achievements, so perhaps it isn't surprising.
I'd agree with that.
I think that I can think of a few things the Lib Dems have done that have improved this government compared to how I imagine a majority Conservative government would have proceeded - one where the Cameroons would have been effectively in Coalition with their more right-wing backbenches.
Unfortunately, in the eyes of many of their former voters, they have collaborated with the enemy, and wartime discipline must be enforced.
F1: Just under 3 days to P1. Worth remembering that Monaco, weirdly, has P1 and P2 on Thursday, not Friday.
Some reckon Red Bull will challenge Mercedes. Personally, I think the gap will narrow but the Silver Arrows will still be ahead. However, it's the perfect circuit for strategic shenanigans.
Mr. Eagles, would any decline in optimism also lag?
I'm wondering what would happen if we had a rate rise in, say, March next year.
Yes, economic optimism started falling in early 2012, around the time of Omnishambles budget, which then saw a period with huge Labour share of the vote and leads.
Labour may be left running a campaign that just doesn't chime by this time next year. No-one suggests 'the cost of living' is no longer an issue. But to run with that strapline on the back of a mini-boom? As the centrepiece of your strategy to regain power? I just can't see it moving enough voters in the key marginals. They'll be up against a government that has stuck to its guns and consistently called the big macroeconomic decisions right.
Then again, it might now be too late for Labour to change it.
At Sutton Council the officers are running around like headless chickens today because there is serious talk of a hung council after Thursday with UKIP and Labour picking up seats off the LDs...Could be a worse night for the Orange people than initially thought...
I can recall you forecasting Conservative gains in the 2010 local elections in Sutton as well as in the parliamentary seats because the LD council was very unpopular . Will your forecast this year be any more accurate ?
Very worrying thing happened whilst out canvassing yesterday. I spoke to a gentleman who was a Muslim and from a local Mosque just outside the ward.I asked if i could rely on his support on Thursday and he told me there was a meeting at the Mosque this Tuesday to decide which way the whole congregation were to going to vote and they would be influenced by the leader of that Mosque. The leader of that Mosque is the ex Libdem Mayor of Sutton and served on the council for 20 years. I asked him why he couldnt make up his own mind and he told me that was not the way of Allah.. I was left feeling slightly bemused....
The polls are all over the place. Wait until well after the Euros before betting would be my advice.
I heard your Leader EdM on R4 Today. He wanted to announce the latest bright idea for higher minimum wage, at the tail end of the european campaign.... Just imagine if he actually had some clear EC parliament focused policies to announce to address the main concerns voters are taking into the polling booth this Thursday?
The other week it was about the NHS - of no relevance to this european vote. Also at a time where there is a growing level of awarenes of the "unique" achievements Labour are reaching in the Welsh NHS.
Tactically and Strategically inept. He should join Osborne in that bracket.
Mr. Eagles, Craig David? That's an obscure reference, I would suggest.
MD. He claimed that a former UKIP council candidate from last year who had made homophobic comments was actually a serving UKIP councillor and then used that to attack Farage for allowing such people in the party. Farage rightly said he didn't believe he was a councillor and O'Brien insisted he was.
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
FFS, Richard. I know you are worked up about this, but it doesn't matter whether he was a councillor or not.
UKIP was happy to run him as a candidate for councillor. If he was no longer in the party, that would be a fair point, but (AFAIK) he's still a member.
O'Brien made a silly error of detail, but it doesn't detract fom the main point. And you're smart enough to appreciate that.
Nope it was a calculated lie which he reinforced when challenged.
Of course as I keep pointing out on here the main difference between the UKIP and the Tories is that when UKIP find unsavoury characters they drop them. The Tories do not and are happy to continue with homophobes and racists as councillors long after they have been identified as such.
Look to clean up your own party before you start attacking others.
O'Brien was clearly being dishonest about Sullivan. At the beginning of the interview he claimed " this is just in " as though Sullivan's comments were breaking news but later he wanted to know why Farage had done nothing about the same comments since they were from February.
Indeed. Although it's somewhat inevitable you'll have a PR problem when the three other major parties are all just multiple sides of the same coin and all join forces to smear you.
It's almost like some Kippers are intent on proving David Cameron right.
I'm not sure I'm following you. Are you denying that there was an agreement between Lib, Lab and Con to smear UKIP as racist?
Well yes, it's not like David Cameron said years ago when UKIP were polling less than 2% were full of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly"
The alliance was on the front page of the Guardian. There was a guest on Newsnight who was head of this cross-party anti-UKIP campaign. Do you need me to dig it out?
Actually, there was an ex Labour immigration minister 'claiming' to represent a 'cross party alliance', the BBC gave her a platform as such, the Guardian also reported her as a cross-party spokesman - but no one, at anytime, explained who they were.
Comments
Clever use of a lie to make Farage look like he was defending the indefensible.
Mr. Mark, huzzah! You should rejoice in your survival, perhaps by a slightly late celebration of International Whisky Day.
Mr. P, once the state controls wages, prices, and rents all will be well as Comrade Miliband pilots the good ship Socialist Britannia through the choppy waters of decadent capitalism into the calm, beautiful seas of leftwing paradise.
Mr. Tyndall, does sound dubious.
UKIPpers and Scats alike are defined by their naivety and self-importance. UKIPpers imagine that the outcome of the euros will send some sort of electrifying signal to Westminster, for example. UKIP won the euro elections! Get ready you LibLabcon bastards, UKIP are coming! Of course the reality is that the Yerpean parliament does nothing, the results do not matter, the composition of the assembly does not matter, and the elections to it are of nil significance. UKIP themselves cannot point to one single thing their MEPs have ever done in Strasbourg in British interests, yet persist in imagining that "winning" this kind of election will somehow make a difference.
The self-importance somewhat flows from this, but it's individual as well as corporate. Your e-UKIPper relates tales of how he explained the world to the other players at the golf club bar and won them all over, and after an hour they'd all agreed to vote UKIP, in the bag. Of course you would agree, wouldn't you, just to get rid of the twat? Your UKIPper bores others with his stupid views and at the end is wholly convinced everyone agrees with him.
To paraphrase Churchill, never in the field of human politics were so many so angry about so much for so long, because frankly, normal people have better things to do. When it comes to electoral success, I'm afraid UKIP are the Luftwaffe, and everyone else is collectively the RAF.
Swallows and House martins do not nest in areas that would cause farmers and builders issues which is another reason to be sceptical of this list. Both species would firmly fall into the possible H&S are which is given as the supposed reason for these changes but neither are included.
On thursday two hours after polls open a bumper crop of immigration stats will be published by ONS. http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/immigration-recent-trends-and-thursdays-figures#.U3kI_Shc9bE …”
This is from yesterday
liz angus noall @stivesliz 11h
Just incase any one out there didn't think that #NickGriffin was a total arse
pic.twitter.com/gMX9IvPS3s
twitter.com/stivesliz/status/468131477742686208
Also, Vanilla still being an arse, it doesn't understand the concept of 'keep me signed in'.. grr
Them foreign bite-sized hors d’œuvre, coming over here, preparing the guest for the meal ...
http://www.broxtowelabour.com/2014/05/14/answering-your-questions-about-the-euro-elections/
Nigel Farage backtracks on not wanting to live next door to Romanians
Ukip leader says most Romanians would make good neighbours as party takes out newspaper ad insisting it is not racist
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/19/nigel-farage-next-door-romanians-ukip?CMP=twt_gu
Contrast with 2009 where the LD average was 15.2% in the final 5 polls and then had an actual vote of 13.80%.
UKIP was happy to run him as a candidate for councillor. If he was no longer in the party, that would be a fair point, but (AFAIK) he's still a member.
O'Brien made a silly error of detail, but it doesn't detract fom the main point. And you're smart enough to appreciate that.
Percentage of prisoners that are Romanian vs percentage of UKIP MEPs that were imprisoned after.
pic.twitter.com/vwiJdyuYsw
Someone has to win and I expect by default it will be UKIP. The "other others" will do better than priced into the markets, I think. I still think that the Greens are worth watching very carefully. This is a frivolous election and plenty of right-on voters will regard this as a free opportunity to burnish their progressive credentials.
SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
Lab 2 MEPs (n/c)
Con 1 MEP (n/c)
LD 0 MEPs (-1)
... which is exactly what John Curtice was predicting in yesterday's Sunday Herald.
However, predictions are made to be broken...
http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/hope-not-hate-are-this-evening-pushing.html
http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-latest-digest-of-crimes-etc-by.html
I'm not surprised though. The rabid anti-UKIP left generally are stupid people.
According to this. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Putin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfB9wCR5Y_M
FOURTH POLLSTER IN A WEEK TO SHOW THE TORIES AHEAD
Populus @PopulusPolls · 39s
New Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2); Cons 35 (+3); LD 8 (-2); UKIP 14 (+1); Oth 9 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140519
"Just when I though I was logged out, they pull me back in."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2515917/Police-hunt-Romanian-ATM-thieves-90-UK-cashpoint-fraud.html
Mr. Socrates, indeed. But even basic stats seem beyond many in the media and politics (cf debt and deficit being confused).
A bunch of male Romanians moved in next door.
They spent the night singing the gypsy chorus from La Traviata to the accompaniment of bongo drums.
No one in the street knew how to ask them to shut it.
And the police were next to useless. Wouldn't take details without my Freemasons membership number.
That's it. The last straw. I'm voting Kipper on Thursday.
I wonder how Comrade Miliband's plans to fix prices, rents, costs and everything else will go down.
Look on the checkbox like a vote, You tick it hoping that it will do what it says, but it seldom does.
*I think the thrust of isam's argument yesterday was "a group of Romanian men" rather than "Romanian" only, but if there is a difference it has not been argued by others.
There's about a 2-4 month lag, but there's a definite correlation between them all.
As ever correlation doesn't imply causation.
The ex Express guy earning his corn - he knows a car crash when he sees one.
Of course as I keep pointing out on here the main difference between the UKIP and the Tories is that when UKIP find unsavoury characters they drop them. The Tories do not and are happy to continue with homophobes and racists as councillors long after they have been identified as such.
Look to clean up your own party before you start attacking others.
While the poll may or not be correct, I would be wary of drawing any firm conclusions till at least a month after the "Euros".
Large disturbances in the tea leaves need time to settle before a "reading" takes place.
I'm wondering what would happen if we had a rate rise in, say, March next year.
Edited extra bit: just thought of something obvious I missed. Do the electorate now consider the Conservatives as the only real party in office, Labour as the opposition, and the Lib Dems as the party it's fun to kick?
The blues are seeing a slight improvement but the Lib Dems remain in dire straits.
YouGov had a couple of 36% scores during the budget bounce, so a sustained rise to the mid-30s across the pollsters would be a significant change.
"There is a view that Ukip is almost immune to rational political attack, since it represents a resentment with politics and modern life incapable of being shifted by statistics, reason or rhetoric. Clegg found himself caught out by this during his televised debates with Farage."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/18/ukip-may-be-eating-into-labour-heartland-support
The next stage will be anger
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model
I am not sure about a rate rise. My puzzle is why Carney was using words like "unsustainable" and "risks" when it is usually the duty of the BOE to engender confidence.
Will George call him to task over "talking down" the recovery?
Is this a pattern seen in coalition governments on the Continent?
I have also been 'denying' polls showing the Tories in the 20s, as recently as yesterday.
It's possible that Cameron/Clegg had a joint discussion about how each of their respective parties would tackle UKIP of course, even probably.
But, given how poor the main parties are at coordinating with one another when they do agree on something (e.g. Better Together) I doubt there was an official agreement to smear them as racist: correlation does not imply causation.
I wish there was a way for UKIP to stop and start again.
It has gone, and is going horribly wrong for them. I would if I were them forget about the EU thing or/and do some research on what the more arcane problems with the EU (working time directive, some CAP provision or other). Go crazy on the non-immigration related elements of the EU. Give immigration a rest.
Then come out with a transport policy. A sensible one perhaps a bit out there but one that people can understand.
Then something on defence. Then health.
UKIP have an audience many of whom couldn't care less what the policies are and see them as a NOTA. Others see them as being an acceptable anti-immigration party for acceptable anti- or controlled immigration views. Others still are racist.
If UKIP wants to be a political party it needs to mellow out. Lose the immigration tag and broaden into a more rounded political party that Andrew Neil couldn't destroy any time he wanted to. Left or right or centre it matters not.
It all takes time but will be the difference between a longer-term new force in politics or a single-issue pressure group all too easily accused of racism and xenophobia.
My $0.02? They haven't got it in them, they are a one-trick pony in personnel and policies and they will fold (has long been my view) to sub-5% in GE2015. But I would be interested to be proved wrong.
New Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2); Cons 35 (+3); LD 8 (-2); UKIP 14 (+1); Oth 9 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140519
I'm hard pushed to think of anything that has happened over the past week to explain such a shift - what did I miss?
Come on, us Tories have got something to cheer after two years.
We need to express ourselves.
If they leave UKIP then I suspect a lot of them simply will not vote. This is one of the big errors in the Tory thinking. They believe that the move from Tory to UKIP is all about UKIP and nothing about the Tories. Whilst this would be flattering for UKIP if true I simply don't believe that is the case. Voters have abandoned the Tories becuse they do not like them. The arrival of UKIP allowed them an alternative place to put their vote but the assumption that if UKIP implode those votes will go back to the Tories is, I think, vastly over-optimistic.
I suspect many of those leaving UKIP will revert to NOTA.
A) BOTH (note: BOTH) the SNP and SLAB must poll UNDER 30%, and UKIP must poll at least 10%. Although the 2nd bit is perfectly feasible, the first bit is profoundly unlikely.
or
or
C) UKIP must get more votes than SCON. Again, profoundly unlikely.
So, in summary, the most likely way for UKIP to get a Scottish MEP is for SLAB to poll under circa 18%. They got 21% last time round in 2009.
The 'true' position of both parties is probably parity in the mid-30s.
This does not mean a Conservative landslide election victory next year. It might mean GE2015 could look something like: Con-38, Lab-32, LD-12, UKIP-9, Other-9
It was a monumental strategic miscalculation: the LibDems should have been celebrating their historic achievement in what they used to call the 'New Politics', having helped set up the first successful peacetime coalition in living memory. Given that their entire political raison d'être for at least half a century has been based on wanting this form of government, it does seem eccentric that (with a handful of distinguished exceptions) they have been going around looking as though someone shot their pet hamster.
I know I'm taking any figures that ISAM comes up with a large amount of salt after his several orders of magnitude errors yesterday.
Some of the best quotes, in case you missed them:
They spent the night singing the gypsy chorus from La Traviata to the accompaniment of bongo drums. And the police were next to useless. Wouldn't take details without my Freemasons membership number.
Mr. LP, I can see why you're outraged. The Anvil Chorus from Il Trovatore's much better.
You know you have a PR problem when you have to take out an advert saying you're not racists
I bet that coin is one of those 50p pieces that celebrated Britain joining the EEC as well.
Your e-UKIPper relates tales of how he explained the world to the other players at the golf club bar and won them all over, and after an hour they'd all agreed to vote UKIP, in the bag. Of course you would agree, wouldn't you, just to get rid of the twat?
It's more like a Flanders & Swann tribute: "twas on a Monday morning that the Polish gasman came to call."
Said a thing on Friday; strongly stood by it on Saturday; apologised & blamed 'tiredness' on Sunday. It's turning into a Craig David tribute.
They could have made the point far more effectively if they had had "Percentage of Romanian immigrants in the UK that have been imprisoned" versus "Percentage of current and former UKIP MEPs that have been imprisoned", that would have been funny.
That looks do-able.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls
I think that I can think of a few things the Lib Dems have done that have improved this government compared to how I imagine a majority Conservative government would have proceeded - one where the Cameroons would have been effectively in Coalition with their more right-wing backbenches.
Unfortunately, in the eyes of many of their former voters, they have collaborated with the enemy, and wartime discipline must be enforced.
Some reckon Red Bull will challenge Mercedes. Personally, I think the gap will narrow but the Silver Arrows will still be ahead. However, it's the perfect circuit for strategic shenanigans.
Then again, it might now be too late for Labour to change it.
I asked him why he couldnt make up his own mind and he told me that was not the way of Allah..
I was left feeling slightly bemused....
The other week it was about the NHS - of no relevance to this european vote. Also at a time where there is a growing level of awarenes of the "unique" achievements Labour are reaching in the Welsh NHS.
Tactically and Strategically inept. He should join Osborne in that bracket.
Perhaps you could enlighten us with some names?