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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

In the past week all three of the top parties have had a lead – the biggest being the massive 11% UKIP recorded by ComRes online which totally limits it’s numbers to those 100% certain.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    1st?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    1st?

    So not UKIP, then?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Charles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    1st?


    So not UKIP, then?
    Will be interesting on Sunday when the votes are counted. I've had a slice of 5/4 on UKIP finishing 1st following Mike's tip. Do we know when the first declarations will be in?
  • OysterOctopusOysterOctopus Posts: 29
    What's the timeline for results coming out, then? Will local election results be counted on Thursday/Friday, or will it all wait until the weekend?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    OysterOctopus said:

    What's the timeline for results coming out, then? Will local election results be counted on Thursday/Friday, or will it all wait until the weekend?

    Someone on here posted a timeline for the locals. They will be counted from Thursday night to Friday afternoon.
    The Euros iirc have to be done on Sunday as most of Europe votes on Sunday.

  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    FPT as I want to ensure TGOFH gets the apology

    First off my apologies to all for my outburst against TGOFH and calling him the word beginning with T. However my opinion holds he does not understand the problem here with his blithe statements of just save so I am going to do a little maths and try and show him the problem

    I am on well above average wage on 40k currently and I rent.

    by the time I have paid rent bills, travel to work etc I have 600£ left a month expendable which I need to buy food from as well

    assume I do bare minimum shopping and save all of the rest so lets call it I spend 120 a month on food leaving 480£ to save.(This means I do not goto a pub, smoke, goto a cinema or anything else that costs money)

    Assume further that I get a 2% pay increase

    In my area a cheap one bedroom flat costs 185000 (note I live in a really cheap area of the south east anyway so moving somewhere cheaper isnt really on the cards)

    I can get 4 x my wage as a mortgage or 160k meaning I need to save 25k for deposit

    house price inflation in my area is running at 7.3% so lets look where saving gets me

    year-----salary-----total saved------mortgage possible-----flat price-----deposit
    1--------40000------5400-------------160000----------------185000---------25000
    2--------40800------9908-------------163200----------------198505---------35305
    3--------41616------15526------------166464----------------212996---------46532

    Dont think I need to fill in more really to prove my point after saving hard for that flat where I initially only needed 25k deposit I now only need to raise another 31k to be able to buy that flat.

    As long as house price inflation continues as it is I have no chance and people saying "oh just work hard and save" just comes across as total ignorance. Now I am on a pretty good wage compared to most people in this country. Imagine therefore what its like for those one average wage or below before you mouth off platitudes about "work hard and save"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2014
    @LabourList: Will Labour be blindsided by a new Shy Tory Factor? @Conorpope fears it might happen http://labourlist.org/2014/05/are-labour-going-to-be-blindsided-by-a-new-shy-tory-factor/

    twitter.com/LabourList/status/468027163707719680/photo/1
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    FPT as I want to piss TGOHF off
    (I am technically a christian as well....just not a very good one)
    @SouthamObserver

    Depends on your definition of "socialism"?
    I am an ultra communist, but pragmatic enough to know it won't work, and also the reasons why.
    Unfortunately the right wing tends to be far more dogmatic and blinkered about their own "ideals"

    "Maggie defeated communism!". "And this proves that capitalism is the one true way!"
    Wrong on both counts, however you would be as well trying to explain quantum physics to a lab mouse, as explaining this to them.
    (It is fun however, watching them wriggle and squirm when you push the hook into their nematode like bodies)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    The critical thing for Ukip is to make the most of the little bits of truth that break though the political class' wall of lies as most people don't know this stuff is happening.

    http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2014/01/14/romanians-in-hard-times-on-benefits-street/

    This was going on before on a small scale until the political class opened the borders around 2001 when it went exponential. Thing is the people importing the poorest people they can find to work for them illegally (so they can pay them the least) make the most on the deal if the houses are the cheapest available hence it being concentrated in the poorest areas out of sight.

    It's one of the prime reasons behind all sorts of bad stuff including most obviously youth unemployment.

    The political class can only get away with the "racism" tactic of shutting down debate if they can pretend there are no negative consequences to what they've done and that means they need to keep all this stuff hidden. The more light is shone on what is really happening the better.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @Scott_P - Arf, great photo find by LabourList - but fairly sure that 'shy Tory' is Clegg?
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    ZenPagan said:

    First off my apologies to all for my outburst against TGOFH and calling him the word beginning with T. However my opinion holds he does not understand the problem here with his blithe statements of just save so I am going to do a little maths and try and show him the problem

    I am on well above average wage on 40k currently and I rent.

    by the time I have paid rent bills, travel to work etc I have 600£ left a month expendable which I need to buy food from as well

    assume I do bare minimum shopping and save all of the rest so lets call it I spend 120 a month on food leaving 480£ to save.(This means I do not goto a pub, smoke, goto a cinema or anything else that costs money)

    Assume further that I get a 2% pay increase

    In my area a cheap one bedroom flat costs 185000 (note I live in a really cheap area of the south east anyway so moving somewhere cheaper isnt really on the cards)

    I can get 4 x my wage as a mortgage or 160k meaning I need to save 25k for deposit

    house price inflation in my area is running at 7.3% so lets look where saving gets me

    year-----salary-----total saved------mortgage possible-----flat price-----deposit
    1--------40000------5400-------------160000----------------185000---------25000
    2--------40800------9908-------------163200----------------198505---------35305
    3--------41616------15526------------166464----------------212996---------46532

    Dont think I need to fill in more really to prove my point after saving hard for that flat where I initially only needed 25k deposit I now only need to raise another 31k to be able to buy that flat.

    As long as house price inflation continues as it is I have no chance and people saying "oh just work hard and save" just comes across as total ignorance. Now I am on a pretty good wage compared to most people in this country. Imagine therefore what its like for those one average wage or below before you mouth off platitudes about "work on a bit this isnt cricket"

    *editted to try and improve formatting

    FPT

    "house price inflation in my area is running at 7.3% so lets look where saving gets me"

    Use <pre> </pre> codes to produce a fixed format table, it forces characters and spaces to the same width. 

    This   is  a       table
    That   aligns      properly
    House inflation long term generally tracks general inflation. That is your wages will (eventually) catch up with house prices. The ups and downs do sort themselves out. Save what you can and be patient.

    The current prices are stupid. Beyond stupid. But it cannot last, whether through reduction in prices, or a weak market, or wage inflation, you will get your moment. Grab it.

    The rules may have changed since Labour's open door policy, and a reduction in immigration may be essential to reduce housing pressure.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    @Morris Dancer
    "Ironically, Rome started to decline when it stopped expanding militarily and started fighting itself instead of others."

    say
    profit from province A = x / year
    cost of province A = 2x / year
    initial looting of province A = 100x

    cost/benefit of province A goes negative after 100 years

    I think classical empires generally expanded too far because of the initial looting bonus.

    (there's an analogy in there somewhere with the number of university places and student loans)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Next said:

    ZenPagan said:

    First off my apologies to all for my outburst against TGOFH and calling him the word beginning with T. However my opinion holds he does not understand the problem here with his blithe statements of just save so I am going to do a little maths and try and show him the problem

    I am on well above average wage on 40k currently and I rent.

    by the time I have paid rent bills, travel to work etc I have 600£ left a month expendable which I need to buy food from as well

    assume I do bare minimum shopping and save all of the rest so lets call it I spend 120 a month on food leaving 480£ to save.(This means I do not goto a pub, smoke, goto a cinema or anything else that costs money)

    Assume further that I get a 2% pay increase

    In my area a cheap one bedroom flat costs 185000 (note I live in a really cheap area of the south east anyway so moving somewhere cheaper isnt really on the cards)

    I can get 4 x my wage as a mortgage or 160k meaning I need to save 25k for deposit

    house price inflation in my area is running at 7.3% so lets look where saving gets me

    year-----salary-----total saved------mortgage possible-----flat price-----deposit
    1--------40000------5400-------------160000----------------185000---------25000
    2--------40800------9908-------------163200----------------198505---------35305
    3--------41616------15526------------166464----------------212996---------46532

    Dont think I need to fill in more really to prove my point after saving hard for that flat where I initially only needed 25k deposit I now only need to raise another 31k to be able to buy that flat.

    As long as house price inflation continues as it is I have no chance and people saying "oh just work hard and save" just comes across as total ignorance. Now I am on a pretty good wage compared to most people in this country. Imagine therefore what its like for those one average wage or below before you mouth off platitudes about "work on a bit this isnt cricket"

    *editted to try and improve formatting

    FPT

    "house price inflation in my area is running at 7.3% so lets look where saving gets me"

    Use <pre> </pre> codes to produce a fixed format table, it forces characters and spaces to the same width. 

    This   is  a       table
    That   aligns      properly
    House inflation long term generally tracks general inflation. That is your wages will (eventually) catch up with house prices. The ups and downs do sort themselves out. Save what you can and be patient.

    The current prices are stupid. Beyond stupid. But it cannot last, whether through reduction in prices, or a weak market, or wage inflation, you will get your moment. Grab it.

    How long term are we talking for house prices and general inflation to match? Because in London (and most of the South East) house prices have been outstripping it for two decades now.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Quincel said:

    How long term are we talking for house prices and general inflation to match? Because in London (and most of the South East) house prices have been outstripping it for two decades now.

    Some say property cycles are 4 to 12 years. Many say that it is typically 18 years.

    As I said in my previous post, mass immigration may have moved the goal posts here, so who knows?

    But unsustainable prices will break one way or another.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Today's Sunday Politics.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00ly0k7/episodes/player
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    My next door neighbor - who bought his home new at the same time as I did, has just sold his house after it being on the market for less than a month.

    The actual price won't appear online until closing in 2 weeks, but he tells me he got more than he paid for it in 2005.

    Given where the real estate market has been here the last 5-6 years that is encouraging news, even though his home is substantially smaller than mine.

    It's still a buyers market here.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Next
    "But unsustainable prices will break one way or another"

    Not if the "De Beer" method is applied.
    See Mark Carney's recent, and ever more strident pronouncements.

    (maximum points to anybody who spotted the earlier trap, but none if you merely missed it)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Quincel said:

    Next said:

    ZenPagan said:

    First off my apologies to all for my outburst against TGOFH and calling him the word beginning with T. However my opinion holds he does not understand the problem here with his blithe statements of just save so I am going to do a little maths and try and show him the problem


    FPT

    "house price inflation in my area is running at 7.3% so lets look where saving gets me"

    Use <pre> </pre> codes to produce a fixed format table, it forces characters and spaces to the same width.


    This   is  a       table
    That   aligns      properly
    House inflation long term generally tracks general inflation. That is your wages will (eventually) catch up with house prices. The ups and downs do sort themselves out. Save what you can and be patient.

    The current prices are stupid. Beyond stupid. But it cannot last, whether through reduction in prices, or a weak market, or wage inflation, you will get your moment. Grab it.

    How long term are we talking for house prices and general inflation to match? Because in London (and most of the South East) house prices have been outstripping it for two decades now.
    Untrue - I sold in SE london 6 years ago for 250000 and the same street is showing the same prices today as then. In much of the rest of the UK prices are still not back to 2008 levels. The majority of people do manage to get on the property ladder - it needs sacrifice , hard savings, realism about where one can buy but it's nonsense to argue that it's only the rich and privileged who can do it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    @Next
    "But unsustainable prices will break one way or another"

    Not if the "De Beer" method is applied.
    See Mark Carney's recent, and ever more strident pronouncements.

    (maximum points to anybody who spotted the earlier trap, but none if you merely missed it)

    Are you referring to the De Beer monopoly that broke down more than a decade ago?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Next said:

    Quincel said:

    How long term are we talking for house prices and general inflation to match? Because in London (and most of the South East) house prices have been outstripping it for two decades now.

    Some say property cycles are 4 to 12 years. Many say that it is typically 18 years.

    As I said in my previous post, mass immigration may have moved the goal posts here, so who knows?

    But unsustainable prices will break one way or another.

    So people in their 30s will just have to wait until their 50s to get on the ladder?

    There's a lot of people sticking their head in the sand in this post. Mass immigration means 100,000 people are coming to London every year. Supply is never going to keep up with this, and our housing is already some of the most expensive in the world. Even a 10% crash wouldn't bring prices down to reasonable levels.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    So people in their 30s will just have to wait until their 50s to get on the ladder?


    To be fair The London housing market is a kind of perfect storm, because a good deal of the property is being bought by wealthy people from the BRICs economies looking for a safe haven bolthole for their cash.

    Mass immigration has undoubtedly made things worse but its not the only factor.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    @Socrates
    Being men of the world, (those of the fairer sex and "investors" look away now) we both know diamonds have little intrinsic value.
    For the gemstone market this rapidly became a major problem, but a cartel, and a slick marketing ploy ensured that that famous family would never be short of a crust of bread.
    You may believe that the cartel was broken up and obliterated my dear Greek philosopher, but to this day, the only thing they smash and obliterate are the excess minerals.
    Try selling a diamond back to De Beers (amusingly, they only sell, and never buy in second user diamonds, because they know this basic fact)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    felix said:


    Untrue - I sold in SE london 6 years ago for 250000 and the same street is showing the same prices today as then. In much of the rest of the UK prices are still not back to 2008 levels. The majority of people do manage to get on the property ladder - it needs sacrifice , hard savings, realism about where one can buy but it's nonsense to argue that it's only the rich and privileged who can do it.

    Regrettably the figures clearly show that your experience is the exception in London. Follow the link below and put in Greater London, 1995-2014. You'll see that the average house costs over three times as much as it did 20 years ago, with the average flat having risen from a little over £80k to over £350k in that time. There are exceptions, but the general shift has been staggering - and a generation of people starting their first jobs in London will in the main never be able to own property unless they leave the city. Someone has to staff the wards in London hospitals, fight fires, teach in schools etc. They can't all just move.

    http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/house-prices-and-sales/search-the-index
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27459663
    Bank of England's Mark Carney warns on housing market

    I think that Carney has left it a bit late to warn of a possible collapse of housing prices.

    However the Cheeky Chappie of the day is that well known chameleon, "Every Which Way Cameron" who said, "...the government needed to build more houses and said Mr Carney was "absolutely right"."
    So where has that F**ker been for the last 4 years?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    .... and now I'm going to sunbathe for an hour or so.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Euros - Scotland

    CON to win a Scottish MEP
    Yes 4/9 (BetVictor)
    No 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

    UKIP to win a Scottish MEP
    Yes 7/4 (BetVictor)
    No 1/2 (Ladbrokes)

    LIB DEMS to win a Scottish MEP
    Yes 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
    No 1/7 (BetVictor)
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I don't think anyone commented before: will there be exit polls when British polls close on Thursday, or will we have to wait until say Saturday night?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Euros - Scotland - Most Votes

    SNP 1/4 (William Hill)
    Lab 7/2 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    MikeK said:

    .... and now I'm going to sunbathe for an hour or so.

    like a chameleon
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeK

    Make a commodity "aspirational" then control the supply....... I am sure I have heard that somewhere before, and very recently as well.
    Still? High prices keeps insolvency away from the door. and we wouldn't want another bank "crash" would we?
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Suzanne Evans is very, very good.

    starts @6m

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/p8u22xv

    If there are more like her after 22nd...maybe UKIP won't dip *at all* in the summer.

    2015 - LibLabCon's Hindenburg moment?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Whatever this man says do the opposite. Willetts dabbling in stuff he doesn't understand yet again.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631722/Bright-students-consider-studying-medicine-university.html
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    Being men of the world, (those of the fairer sex and "investors" look away now) we both know diamonds have little intrinsic value.
    For the gemstone market this rapidly became a major problem, but a cartel, and a slick marketing ploy ensured that that famous family would never be short of a crust of bread.
    You may believe that the cartel was broken up and obliterated my dear Greek philosopher, but to this day, the only thing they smash and obliterate are the excess minerals.
    Try selling a diamond back to De Beers (amusingly, they only sell, and never buy in second user diamonds, because they know this basic fact)

    The De Beers market share of rough diamonds has plummeted over the past 25 years from 90% in 1987, down to under 40% today - Russian and Australian mines broke away from De Beers because of the cartels inflexibility quite some time ago and over next few years, other mines followed suit, as new world-class mines in Canada chose to sell their supply independent of De Beers.

    Also De Beers recently made an out-of-court settlement of $295 Million in the US with an agreement to “refrain from engaging in certain conduct that violates federal and state antitrust laws” and the trajectory of De Beers’ market share is set to fall much further; - to put it mildly, one could say your theory is flawed..!

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Alanbrooke said:

    MikeK said:

    .... and now I'm going to sunbathe for an hour or so.

    like a chameleon
    Just shows you what you know about nature; chameleons hide from the sun, under leaves. Just like Cammo.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SimonStClare

    Of course my theory is flawed, and diamonds truly are worth every penny you spend.
    And just like your house, despite wear and tear, they will always increase in value.
    It's the magic money tree of capitalism.

    I need to be off, I promised to teach a white mouse quantum physics
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    shiney2 said:

    Suzanne Evans is very, very good.

    starts @6m

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/p8u22xv

    If there are more like her after 22nd...maybe UKIP won't dip *at all* in the summer.

    2015 - LibLabCon's Hindenburg moment?

    Agree heartily with that. She made rings around Neil on the Weekly Politics. One of our best.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    It's clearly mostly about differential turnout - I think the ComRes UKIP lead shrinks significantly without insisting on 10/10 certainty. And we don't really know how much people are going to be interested by polling day, though I do think I'm going to win my bet with DavidL ("British voting % higher than last time") because of the interest that UKIP is generating. The Tory strength in postal votes is relevant too.

    Apparently the count doesn't START till Sunday evening, for some inexplicable reason.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    shiney2 said:

    2015 - LibLabCon's Hindenburg moment?

    Their "Hindenburg moment"?
    Which moment?
    Be given command of the Eighth Army? Appoint Hitler as Chancellor of Germany?

  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited May 2014
    GeoffM said:

    shiney2 said:

    2015 - LibLabCon's Hindenburg moment?

    Their "Hindenburg moment"?
    Which moment?
    Be given command of the Eighth Army? Appoint Hitler as Chancellor of Germany?

    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nice to see UKIP are going for it in Thurrock

    Thurrock in 2015 – A Key UKIP Westminster Hope

    http://www.ukipdaily.com/thurrock-2015-key-ukip-westminster-hope/#.U3jYHSjDVWk
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NickPalmer said:

    It's clearly mostly about differential turnout - I think the ComRes UKIP lead shrinks significantly without insisting on 10/10 certainty. And we don't really know how much people are going to be interested by polling day, though I do think I'm going to win my bet with DavidL ("British voting % higher than last time") because of the interest that UKIP is generating. The Tory strength in postal votes is relevant too.

    Apparently the count doesn't START till Sunday evening, for some inexplicable reason.

    The reason is quite strait forward. It's another of those EU laws your lot keep telling us are not worthy of mention; all the counts in every country of the EU must start simultaneously. Because several of these countries have a less than modern voting system a 3 day delay was allowed. Thats the EU for you.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Euros - Most Votes

    UKIP 4/7 (Lad)
    Lab 11/4 (Hills, SJ)
    Con 9/1 (Betfair)
    LD 1000/1 (Betfair)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @SimonStClare

    Of course my theory is flawed, and diamonds truly are worth every penny you spend.
    And just like your house, despite wear and tear, they will always increase in value.
    It's the magic money tree of capitalism.

    I need to be off, I promised to teach a white mouse quantum physics

    Good luck, perhaps you will have more success convincing a white mouse than here on PB.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - IndyRef

    Yes 3/1 (Lad)
    No 4/11 (various)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    GREENS tightening in Shadsy's GB Vote Share Match Bet

    Ladbrokes - Euros - GB Vote Share Match Bet

    Lib Dems 4/6
    Greens 11/10

    However, oddly, the Greens line price is unchanged: 5/6 above/below 8%
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    NickPalmer said:

    It's clearly mostly about differential turnout - I think the ComRes UKIP lead shrinks significantly without insisting on 10/10 certainty. And we don't really know how much people are going to be interested by polling day, though I do think I'm going to win my bet with DavidL ("British voting % higher than last time") because of the interest that UKIP is generating. The Tory strength in postal votes is relevant too.

    Apparently the count doesn't START till Sunday evening, for some inexplicable reason.

    The vote doesn't start until then because our EU enemies aren't voting until the weekend.
    It's reasonable that we don't count in case our results are leaked. It may affect the votes of other countries.

    I've always wondered about the good sense of releasing results on the US east coast, for example, when the west coast has yet to finish. You must get all sorts of unpredictable backlash voting plus apathy because the results are already clear etc. That said, I'm doubtful that this effect would occur in reality at an EU level.


  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:

    shiney2 said:

    2015 - LibLabCon's Hindenburg moment?

    Their "Hindenburg moment"?
    Which moment?
    Be given command of the Eighth Army? Appoint Hitler as Chancellor of Germany?

    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?
    Hindenburgs death certificate says lung cancer. Is it too late for an autopsy?

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Grandiose said:

    I don't think anyone commented before: will there be exit polls when British polls close on Thursday, or will we have to wait until say Saturday night?

    The publication of exit polls in European parliamentary elections is governed by regulation 30 of the European Parliamentary Elections Regulations 2004 SI 2004/293. No person may publish an exit poll before the close of the poll. The close of poll means, in the case of a general election of MEPs, the close of the polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote in the election. A person who contravenes the prohibition is guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction, to a term of imprisonment not exceeding six months or to a fine not exceeding level five on the standard scale.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited May 2014
    GeoffM said:



    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?

    Hindenburgs death certificate says lung cancer. Is it too late for an autopsy?



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPOyUB9ZE2Q

    The cremation was 100% successful, I'd say.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/an-independence-from-europe-will-they-ruin-ukip-bets/

    There's a "UK EPP" party in some areas as well.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    @quincel @4:25 An excellent point raised about people doing essential jobs in expensive places - "they can't all move". It's not just the impossibility of buying that's the issue for a lot of people, its the increasing impossibility of even renting. Rental prices move with house prices, and that ludicrously overpriced London flat becomes a ludicrous rental rate.

    Its very very simple. We have a vast service and support sector which provides essential services for pretty low salaries. We need those jobs therefore we need those employees therefore we nerd to make their existence viable. Pay rises aren't happening so we must intervene in the housing market. As the private sector won't build social housing and capping rents seems to be akin to slaughtering the 1st born, we have to build social housing ourselves.

    The state, the local authority, the public sector housing association - someone needs to build houses that people can afford to live in. Or accept that the only people who can afford to do these jobs are migrants. Telling people to " work harder" is wonderfully patronising gibberish.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SimonStClare said:

    @Scott_P - Arf, great photo find by LabourList - but fairly sure that 'shy Tory' is Clegg?

    I think that's the point. Some people who might say they are voting for someone else, like the Lib Dems, are really tories but don't want to admit it...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MikeK said:

    NickPalmer said:

    It's clearly mostly about differential turnout - I think the ComRes UKIP lead shrinks significantly without insisting on 10/10 certainty. And we don't really know how much people are going to be interested by polling day, though I do think I'm going to win my bet with DavidL ("British voting % higher than last time") because of the interest that UKIP is generating. The Tory strength in postal votes is relevant too.

    Apparently the count doesn't START till Sunday evening, for some inexplicable reason.

    The reason is quite strait forward. It's another of those EU laws your lot keep telling us are not worthy of mention; all the counts in every country of the EU must start simultaneously. Because several of these countries have a less than modern voting system a 3 day delay was allowed. Thats the EU for you.
    That's rather harsh. Twenty of them are voting on Sunday. Only us and the Netherlands have gone for a civilised Thursday.

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/us/en/elections_2014.html

    Including Sunday in Spain, for some odd reason. As most of them are unemployed and/or permanently drunk you'd think it wouldn't matter which day of the week they picked.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited May 2014
    shiney2 said:



    The cremation was 100% successful, I'd say.

    Ah, right, I see what you mean.

    To give you some historical context, they named the airship after an old dead bloke who did some stuff ages ago.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:



    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?

    Hindenburgs death certificate says lung cancer. Is it too late for an autopsy?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPOyUB9ZE2Q

    The cremation was 100% successful, I'd say.

    Nope! 50%± of passengers and crew survived, believe it or not.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Grandiose said:

    I don't think anyone commented before: will there be exit polls when British polls close on Thursday, or will we have to wait until say Saturday night?

    The publication of exit polls in European parliamentary elections is governed by regulation 30 of the European Parliamentary Elections Regulations 2004 SI 2004/293. No person may publish an exit poll before the close of the poll. The close of poll means, in the case of a general election of MEPs, the close of the polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote in the election. A person who contravenes the prohibition is guilty of an offence and liable on summary conviction, to a term of imprisonment not exceeding six months or to a fine not exceeding level five on the standard scale.
    I've heard that there'll be some dutch ignoring of this regulation.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2014
    MikeK said:

    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:



    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?

    Hindenburgs death certificate says lung cancer. Is it too late for an autopsy?

    The cremation was 100% successful, I'd say.
    Nope! 50%± of passengers and crew survived, believe it or not.

    Actually it was better odds - 13 passengers and 22 aircrew died out of the 36 passengers and 61 crewmen, .

    Also killed was one unlucky ground crew member - probably a Lib Dem..?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    MikeK said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    MikeK said:

    .... and now I'm going to sunbathe for an hour or so.

    like a chameleon
    Just shows you what you know about nature; chameleons hide from the sun, under leaves. Just like Cammo.
    my apologies Mike. As you know birds are my speciality. I like spotting turkeys.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2014/may/commission-prohibits-early-publishing-of-election-results/80862.aspx


    The European Commission this year called upon the Dutch government to comply with the European rules and to wait with the announcement of the results till the last polling station has closed. Ronald Plasterk, the Dutch minister for interior affairs, has sent a letter to all mayors saying that the municipalities are not allowed to send the outcome of the voting districts to the media before 25 May, 11pm Brussels time.

    But indications of voting behaviour may still emerge before 25 May. The main Dutch news broadcaster NOS will publish an exit poll based on the questioning of 40,000 people on the evening of 22 May. Dutch law also requires all voting results to be read out loud after the counting in each polling station, and Dutch right-wing media have announced they will send people to all polling stations in the country to attend the procedure.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Haha this is great!

    James DEA ‏@hsdeal 20h
    Allegedly she said "I don't care where you f***ing post this, just f**k off!" - UKIP Ashford campaign for @JaniceUKIP pic.twitter.com/N8miGjC9Du
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    GeoffM said:



    Ah, right, I see what you mean.

    To give you some historical context, they named the airship after an old dead bloke who did some stuff ages ago.

    A man plagued by over powerful "subordinates" - Ludo and AH - one of whom even dynamited his grave! No rest etc
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    One way to increase the EU turnout would be to get that woman from Rotherham council (Mrs Thatcher?) on the telly again. Then the 100% certainty to vote would be true for Ukip anyway.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    MikeK said:

    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:



    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?


    Nope! 50%± of passengers and crew survived, believe it or not.
    To continue the 2015 analogy - You can almost see Avery leaving the mothership from the front gondola. Let's hope he makes it!

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:



    Ah, right, I see what you mean.

    To give you some historical context, they named the airship after an old dead bloke who did some stuff ages ago.

    A man plagued by over powerful "subordinates" - Ludo and AH - one of whom even dynamited his grave! No rest etc
    A splendidly mature response to my sarcasm to which I doff my hat and apologise.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    He truly is messing. Medical schools generally only mandate Chemistry at A level, so Maths physics Chemistry is fine. Indeed that is what I did 30 years ago. The application ratio is less then 3 per place if applicants apply for 4+ medical schools on UCAS.

    And 65% of current med students are female at present.

    Male WASP doctors from a state school background are the most under represented group in the country now...

    Alanbrooke said:

    Whatever this man says do the opposite. Willetts dabbling in stuff he doesn't understand yet again.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2631722/Bright-students-consider-studying-medicine-university.html

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    GeoffM said:



    The vote doesn't start until then because our EU enemies aren't voting until the weekend.
    It's reasonable that we don't count in case our results are leaked. It may affect the votes of other countries.

    I've always wondered about the good sense of releasing results on the US east coast, for example, when the west coast has yet to finish. You must get all sorts of unpredictable backlash voting plus apathy because the results are already clear etc. That said, I'm doubtful that this effect would occur in reality at an EU level.


    Thanks - I see what you mean.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Based on those voters certain to vote, yougov has UKIP ahead 29% to Labour's 26%
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/eh81zosob6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140516.pdf
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    GeoffM said:

    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:





    A splendidly mature response to my sarcasm to which I doff my hat and apologise.

    Nice gesture, thanks!
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    corporeal said:

    I've heard that there'll be some dutch ignoring of this regulation.

    The Secretary of State doesn't yet have the power to make regulations which extend to the Kingdom of the Netherlands...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    I much prefer winter to summer. Damned heat.

    Anyway, Libya is not necessarily going very well (and I suspect this is not necessarily a surprise):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27462921
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    EUvox VoterMatch for EU elections. If you still have not decided, take the test and see which party you should vote for on Thursday
    http://eu1.euvox.eu/eng/
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    RochdalePioneers said:

    @quincel @4:25 An excellent point raised about people doing essential jobs in expensive places - "they can't all move". It's not just the impossibility of buying that's the issue for a lot of people, its the increasing impossibility of even renting. Rental prices move with house prices, and that ludicrously overpriced London flat becomes a ludicrous rental rate.

    Its very very simple. We have a vast service and support sector which provides essential services for pretty low salaries. We need those jobs therefore we need those employees therefore we nerd to make their existence viable. Pay rises aren't happening so we must intervene in the housing market. As the private sector won't build social housing and capping rents seems to be akin to slaughtering the 1st born, we have to build social housing ourselves.

    The state, the local authority, the public sector housing association - someone needs to build houses that people can afford to live in. Or accept that the only people who can afford to do these jobs are migrants. Telling people to " work harder" is wonderfully patronising gibberish.

    Good post but it ignores the impact of national wage agreements. Council tax in the London area should be massively increased at the top end and the additional income used to build social housing and pay far higher wages to essential staff. Scrap national agreements so that the higher pay is focused on London... In time the higher Council Tax will moderate house prices too...

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27459663
    Bank of England's Mark Carney warns on housing market

    I think that Carney has left it a bit late to warn of a possible collapse of housing prices.

    However the Cheeky Chappie of the day is that well known chameleon, "Every Which Way Cameron" who said, "...the government needed to build more houses and said Mr Carney was "absolutely right"."
    So where has that F**ker been for the last 4 years?

    Kipper comment = insults rather than ideas.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Yougov also has UKIP at 19% in Scotland on Thursday, ahead of the Tories and LDs (who are also behind the Greens). In fact UKIP are only 6% behind the SNP and 7% behind Labour
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/eh81zosob6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140516.pdf
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Oooh bugger - come back home to find the wood-burner full of honey bees - well, those that haven't escaped somehow and are everywhere. Problem currently hidden behind an angry, buzzing, unstable improvised isolation ward of bin bags and masking tape.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Mark, sounds horrendous. Er, wouldn't they be burnt, being in a wood-burner?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    perdix said:

    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27459663
    Bank of England's Mark Carney warns on housing market

    I think that Carney has left it a bit late to warn of a possible collapse of housing prices.

    However the Cheeky Chappie of the day is that well known chameleon, "Every Which Way Cameron" who said, "...the government needed to build more houses and said Mr Carney was "absolutely right"."
    So where has that F**ker been for the last 4 years?

    Kipper comment = insults rather than ideas.

    Oh ho! Look what kettle is calling the pot black.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, sounds horrendous. Er, wouldn't they be burnt, being in a wood-burner?

    If it weren't the warmest day of the year, possibly....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Mark, ah. Fair enough.

    It's a shame you don't have a pet honey badger to sort them out.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov also has UKIP at 19% in Scotland on Thursday, In fact UKIP are only 6% behind the SNP a
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/eh81zosob6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140516.pdf

    The UKIP Surge continues.

    Perhaps there is still time for Scots to pick the REAL independence party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    MorrisDancer Libya is nothing to do with us now, all we did was provide some cover for the rebels to topple Gaddafi, what they do now is up to them
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Panelbase/Sunday Times

    "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
    (Base: 8-10 Likely to vote excluding undecided)

    Yes 46% (-1)
    No 54% (+1)

    "If the referendum was today, and you were standing in the polling booth right now, how would you vote?"
    (Base:8-10 likely to vote and undecided)

    Yes 52%
    No 45%
    WNV 3%

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F4108w11ScottishSundayTimestables.pdf
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GeoffM said:

    shiney2 said:

    GeoffM said:

    shiney2 said:

    2015 - LibLabCon's Hindenburg moment?

    Their "Hindenburg moment"?
    Which moment?
    Be given command of the Eighth Army? Appoint Hitler as Chancellor of Germany?

    disappear in a fireball to the amazement of all?
    Hindenburgs death certificate says lung cancer. Is it too late for an autopsy?

    I think he has a point: he is suggesting the ultimate cause of UKIP's demise: spontaneous human combustion ("SHC")

    http://science.howstuffworks.com/science-vs-myth/unexplained-phenomena/shc.htm
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Shiney2 I would love to see Salmond's face on Friday if UKIP picks up its first Scottish MEP. YES has spent the last month promising the Scots will be free of the Tories for ever, and what do the Scots do, but elect an MEP from a party even more Thatcherite than the Tories!!
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/local_2014_by_time.php
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. HYUFD, I quite agree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited May 2014
    Some hilarious abuse of Owen Jones on Twitter after he criticised Modi

    twitter.com/id2talk/status/468051174185132033
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MarqueeMark said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, sounds horrendous. Er, wouldn't they be burnt, being in a wood-burner?

    If it weren't the warmest day of the year, possibly....
    http://www.bbka.org.uk/help/find_a_swarm_coordinator.php
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    MorrisDancer Indeed
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Smarmeron said:

    @SimonStClare


    I need to be off, I promised to teach a white mouse quantum physics

    You and Venus FlyTrap....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhbqIJZ8wCM
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    HYUFD said:

    Shiney2 I would love to see Salmond's face on Friday if UKIP picks up its first Scottish MEP. YES has spent the last month promising the Scots will be free of the Tories for ever, and what do the Scots do, but elect an MEP from a party even more Thatcherite than the Tories!!

    If you really think that that is going to happen, why not nip over to BetVictor, where you can get a lovely 7/4 on UKIP picking up a Scottish MEP. How much have you got on?

    Best prices - UKIP to win a Scottish MEP

    Yes 7/4 (BetVictor)
    No 1/2 (Ladbrokes)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, ah. Fair enough.

    It's a shame you don't have a pet honey badger to sort them out.

    I think if I had a pet honey badger, a swarm of angry bees would be the least of my worries....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2014
    RochdalePioneers said:

    An excellent point raised about people doing essential jobs in expensive places - "they can't all move". It's not just the impossibility of buying that's the issue for a lot of people, its the increasing impossibility of even renting. Rental prices move with house prices, and that ludicrously overpriced London flat becomes a ludicrous rental rate.

    This is not entirely true: rents are a combination of capital investment and acceptable yields. There has been a compression of rental yields in central London, which has resulted in rents being less high than they would otherwise be. That doesn't mean that they are not very high in absolute terms however.
    RochdalePioneers said:



    Its very very simple. We have a vast service and support sector which provides essential services for pretty low salaries. We need those jobs therefore we need those employees therefore we nerd to make their existence viable. Pay rises aren't happening so we must intervene in the housing market. As the private sector won't build social housing and capping rents seems to be akin to slaughtering the 1st born, we have to build social housing ourselves.

    There is a little bit of an non-sequiteur in the jump from pay rises not happening (although they are) to intervening in the rental market, but no matter. However, rent controls (or even Labour's pretence of rent controls): L&G and Aviva were beginning to make moves into the rental market through building their own properties - exactly what we need. But they have put these plans on pause until next year because of the uncertainty generated by Miliband's too-clever-by-halfness.
    RochdalePioneers said:


    The state, the local authority, the public sector housing association - someone needs to build houses that people can afford to live in. Or accept that the only people who can afford to do these jobs are migrants. Telling people to " work harder" is wonderfully patronising gibberish.

    That's a fair point: supply in the key issue. The situation is slowly improving (see the recent Peabody* announcement for instance). Another great step has been freeing up the ability to convert commercial to residential without permission.

    http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/architecture-design-blog/2014/apr/24/peabody-rolls-out-the-future-of-affordable-housing

    But there needs to be moves to increase supply - facilitating planning, reducing some of the restrictions on consents, relaxing the green belt restrictions.

    * Wonderful how bankers use their wealth, isn't it.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    HYUFD said:

    MorrisDancer Libya is nothing to do with us now, all we did was provide some cover for the rebels to topple Gaddafi, what they do now is up to them

    UNSC resolution 1973 authorised the protection of civilians, including by the imposition of a no fly zone. It did not authorise the aiding and abetting of one side in a civil war, which is what we did. Our misuse of the resolution is one of the reasons the Russians distrust us so much.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MarqueeMark said:

    Oooh bugger - come back home to find the wood-burner full of honey bees - well, those that haven't escaped somehow and are everywhere. Problem currently hidden behind an angry, buzzing, unstable improvised isolation ward of bin bags and masking tape.....

    Gosh, I hope you will be able to resolve this crisis without hurting any bees. I expect your local bee man will be able to help you.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    Evening all.

    Time for an election bar chart, methinks.

    http://bit.ly/1keVjx0
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    HYUFD said:

    .. elect an MEP from a party even more Thatcherite than the Tories!!

    Steady on! We are the Peoples Party.

    REAL Independence is the goal - why would Scots vote for a failed separatist?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Haha this is great!

    James DEA ‏@hsdeal 20h
    Allegedly she said "I don't care where you f***ing post this, just f**k off!" - UKIP Ashford campaign for @JaniceUKIP pic.twitter.com/N8miGjC9Du

    Wellington was more elegant in his phrasing

    http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/14599.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    I much prefer winter to summer. Damned heat.

    Anyway, Libya is not necessarily going very well (and I suspect this is not necessarily a surprise):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27462921

    Agreed on both points. I disagreed with both main UK parties on the intervention - opportunist and not clear that it would produce anything better.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    Evening all.

    Time for an election bar chart, methinks.

    http://bit.ly/1keVjx0

    back to create more votes for the kippers Mr P.

    There is something wondrous in the Rindvieh stupidity of the modern conservative party, any sensible person would just leave them alone.
This discussion has been closed.