Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
Was it ever in doubt ?
No more than it was ever in doubt that Labour would win Bradford West...
Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
Btw the "Real" Betfair price is 1.54 not 2/7 (1.28) just because someone has £20 @ 1.31 doesn't mean it is there yet... I could put my house up at 50%+ it's price... doesn't mean it'll sell for that much
The Scottish sub sample would see the Tories gaining Berwickshire from the Libs and Dumfries and Renfrewshire East from Labour, but losing out to the SNP in Argyll, Fife, Aberdeenshire West and parts of Ayrshire and Edinburgh. Surely Lab can't slump to 22 in Scotland?!
I wondered too. I'm well aware of error sizes and am not too inclined to take it very seriously. But when the Herald (the - mainly - pro-Unionist daily, from Labour's Glasgow heartland, remember) is publishing stuff like this, I do wonder.
I always find it amusing when people are so certain of how those politically opposed to them are going to behave. It's the "people of Party A will vote for Party B if Party A is on the slide/has no chance".mentality.
It seems almost a maxim that political activists understand their enemies far better than their friends.(assuming they have any).
Anyhow, polls a-plenty and for some the message seems clear though with ratings ranging from 31-34%, the Conservatives aren't really in a game-winning position yet. In truth, the statistical dead-heat has been there for a while with some pollsters.
Those who follow ICM over the years know it throws out occasional Party outliers both on the high and low sides so the 31% Labour number may change considerably next month and as the Ashcroft poll is first time out it remains to be seen how those numbers will change/develop.
Even so, we come rolling back to the same questions about Labour and how a Labour-governed Britain would differ from a Conservative-governed Britain or what we have now. Many on here will condemn anything and everything Labour propose almost on instinct. A more serious analysis would be in order but there's nothing yet to analyse.
Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
Was it ever in doubt ?
No more than it was ever in doubt that Labour would win Bradford West...
UKIP & Labour are no match for Galloway when it comes to a trench war ground game
The polling has gone a bit Second Punic War for Labour in this parliament.
Some of us kept on telling you that Labour's lead/Cannae were overrated and just not good enough.
Labour must be worried that the next election will be their Zama.
Ed Miliband = Hannibal.
Perhaps after the election Doncaster will be razed and the remnants sown with salt
The only good thing in Doncaster is the m18. Because that leads to Sheffield.
Sheffield, another place that would be improved by a smallish nuclear device.
Sheffield apparently/allegedly has the highest number of trees per person of any city in Europe, though this might say more about where the city boundary is drawn than anything else.
Just been our posting ukip leaflets in Upminster and I've come over all Nick Palmer
100% of people I spoke to said they were voting ukip at the Euros
Both unprompted!
One cited media/other parties ganging up to dig dirt on kippers as his motive... He said he'd prob vote Tory at the GE though.... He did say he wanted out of EU, and that he was from Newham but you need a passport to get in there now
The other guy said this country needs a change and the others are all the same
For those punters who believe the Greens have somehow magically and in no time at all doubled their share of the vote, which I most assuredly do not, then Brighton Pavilion is surely the place to invest where those nice people at both Ladbrokes an Paddy Power will offer you evens on Ms Lucas retaining her seat.
If there's a type of person who'd switch lib/lab -> green, most in Brighton would already have done it
The polling has gone a bit Second Punic War for Labour in this parliament.
Some of us kept on telling you that Labour's lead/Cannae were overrated and just not good enough.
Labour must be worried that the next election will be their Zama.
Ed Miliband = Hannibal.
Perhaps after the election Doncaster will be razed and the remnants sown with salt
The only good thing in Doncaster is the m18. Because that leads to Sheffield.
Sheffield, another place that would be improved by a smallish nuclear device.
Sheffield apparently/allegedly has the highest number of trees per person of any city in Europe, though this might say more about where the city boundary is drawn than anything else.
For those punters who believe the Greens have somehow magically and in no time at all doubled their share of the vote, which I most assuredly do not, then Brighton Pavilion is surely the place to invest where those nice people at both Ladbrokes an Paddy Power will offer you evens on Ms Lucas retaining her seat.
If there's a type of person who'd switch lib/lab -> green, most in Brighton would already have done it
Er yes ..... quite ...... so all Ms Lucas has to do is to hold onto such votes and hey presto she's a winner - simples really!
On recent polling in general - to be honest, we Tories have no better crystal balls than any other party. But after all the schtick that we get (pbTories are always wrong, pbTories never learn...yada yada yada....) it is somewhat heartening that things do at least appear - for now at least - to be turning in our direction.
And quite rightly, too. The turn around in the economy may have uncertain footings, but it has been faster and broader than any pom-pom shaker for the Tories could have sanely hoped for.
But if the Right has been wrong-footed by this turn around, the Left has been shown to be horribly, 180 degrees wrong in its assessment of how the economy would perform. Being shown up must hurt. It might explain the worst of their visceral hatred towards Tories. No-one likes to be shown to be wrong. Again....and again...and again....
But Labour are always wrong. They never learn. Yada yada yada....
The polling has gone a bit Second Punic War for Labour in this parliament.
Some of us kept on telling you that Labour's lead/Cannae were overrated and just not good enough.
Labour must be worried that the next election will be their Zama.
Ed Miliband = Hannibal.
Perhaps after the election Doncaster will be razed and the remnants sown with salt
The only good thing in Doncaster is the m18. Because that leads to Sheffield.
Sheffield, another place that would be improved by a smallish nuclear device.
Sheffield apparently/allegedly has the highest number of trees per person of any city in Europe, though this might say more about where the city boundary is drawn than anything else.
Anyone who wants to surf the Green tide should note that they are available at 25/1 in Norwich South with Paddy Power, where in theory they require only an 7.3% swing to take the seat.
There are sillier bets out there.
Green Party posters outnumber Labour 2-1 in my part of Norwich South.
I think the euros are influencing westminster polls to much these days. In the beggining of the euro election campaign people's preference for the euros was influenced by what they would vote for westminster, now its the opposite effect.
Romford Conservatives falsely quote residents in newsletters
"To one man’s outrage he was quoted as insulting Barking and Dagenham - where his family live.
The newsletters were sent to wards across the Romford constituency and claim to contain messages from local residents.
Thomas Waller, 62, of Garrick House, appears to say in the Hylands leaflet: “People in this area do not want Havering turning into another Barking and Dagenham.”
But speaking to the Recorder he said: “For the life of me, I didn’t say it and I would never have said it
My daughter and grandchild live in Barking and Dagenham, my wife was brought up there. There’s no way I would’ve said it.
“I’m certainly not a member of the Conservative party,” he said. “My dad would turn in his grave if he thought I was,”
For those punters who believe the Greens have somehow magically and in no time at all doubled their share of the vote, which I most assuredly do not, then Brighton Pavilion is surely the place to invest where those nice people at both Ladbrokes an Paddy Power will offer you evens on Ms Lucas retaining her seat.
If there's a type of person who'd switch lib/lab -> green, most in Brighton would already have done it
Er yes ..... quite ...... so all Ms Lucas has to do is to hold onto such votes and hey presto she's a winner - simples really!
Shifting the goal posts. Your original point was
"For those punters who believe the Greens have somehow magically and in no time at all doubled their share of the vote, which I most assuredly do not, then Brighton Pavilion is surely the place to invest"
I am saying if there is a specific type of voter who would shift lib/lab -> green, under the right circumstances then that would already have happened in Brighton so your original point wouldn't necessarily apply.
Also I'm not saying the Green vote has doubled. I'm saying that's where the Core Lib vote would go if they gave up.
Given that i'd say *if* this poll is a bit out of whack then the reason might be over sampling Lib voters.
edit: I see the other point you might be making now. In which case fair enough.
The polling has gone a bit Second Punic War for Labour in this parliament.
Some of us kept on telling you that Labour's lead/Cannae were overrated and just not good enough.
Labour must be worried that the next election will be their Zama.
Ed Miliband = Hannibal.
Perhaps after the election Doncaster will be razed and the remnants sown with salt
The only good thing in Doncaster is the m18. Because that leads to Sheffield.
Sheffield, another place that would be improved by a smallish nuclear device.
Sheffield apparently/allegedly has the highest number of trees per person of any city in Europe, though this might say more about where the city boundary is drawn than anything else.
As I've said here before, I've always thought that pro-Russian separatism was very strong in Crimea but much more nuanced in the rest of the east of Ukraine: the idea of getting westernised and rich has its attractions and not everyone wants to sign up with the nationalist zealots on either side. If the poll is accurate it's delicately balanced, which is perhaps why both Kiev and Moscow have refrained from massive military intervention and the local rebels have been obscuring whether they want separation or merely regionalism. A deal still looks possible if there was someone trusted to make it work, and perhaps Merkel is the right person to put it forward once the further referendum and election are out of the way.
The sharks begin to circle for Ed. Brogan seriously questioning the position of Labour. I reckon Miliband could get a hammering in the media if the elections are disappointing. If I were Labour I'd hope there were good results in a week, and not just turfing Rahman out in East London, because otherwise I think the narrative will move heavily against them.
@CCHQPress: Things don't start so well for Ed Balls on LBC this afternoon. Ed Balls: 'Good Morning.' It's ten past five. Labour turning back the clock.
I think the key issue with the Mitchell/Rape story is the hypocrisy of the left with regards to the reaction. If a Tory backbencher had made a similar comment, the left would have jumped up and down for days over it. But as it is one of their own, they are trying to claim it as a non-story.
Mitchell knew exactly what he was doing - he just loves the limelight. And probably enjoys making Ed's life a little bit more difficult this week as well...
I think the key issue with the Mitchell/Rape story is the hypocrisy of the left with regards to the reaction. If a Tory backbencher had made a similar comment, the left would have jumped up and down for days over it. But as it is one of their own, they are trying to claim it as a non-story.
Mitchell knew exactly what he was doing - he just loves the limelight. And probably enjoys making Ed's life a little bit more difficult this week as well...
Yes it's the standard approach lefty shoes something accidentally offensive and it's an innocent mistake etc righty does the same and it's "x shows true colours" rubbish
I think the key issue with the Mitchell/Rape story is the hypocrisy of the left with regards to the reaction. If a Tory backbencher had made a similar comment, the left would have jumped up and down for days over it. But as it is one of their own, they are trying to claim it as a non-story.
Mitchell knew exactly what he was doing - he just loves the limelight. And probably enjoys making Ed's life a little bit more difficult this week as well...
Yes it's the standard approach lefty shoes something accidentally offensive and it's an innocent mistake etc righty does the same and it's "x shows true colours" rubbish
All very true, but I'm not letting it spoil my enjoyment of watching them squirm. The silence of high ranking women in the Labour party will be noticed and commented on soon enough. I'll enjoy that too
Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
I still think UKIP have a good chance in Newark.
I think it depends on whether that Lab thing about soft-pedaling in Newark was true or spin. If it was spin because their vote had evaporated then strange things could be happening.
UPDATE: Ed Balls has hardly helped things, saying that what Mitchell said was “stupid” and that he should apologise but defended him as “a character”:...
Labour MP for Walthamstow Stella Creasy replied: "I'm glad you've discovered feminism Claire, even if just for political expediency."
But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise."
Told you I'd enjoy it.
It's interesting that this has broken in the way it has, I think it shows a few things
1. The General election campaign has started 2. The Tories are up for the fight and going to hit Labour mercilessly on everything 3. Labour aren't prepared for it
How that plays out/influences opinion remains to be seen but Labour need to brace themselves for one hell of a lot of incoming.
Labour MP for Walthamstow Stella Creasy replied: "I'm glad you've discovered feminism Claire, even if just for political expediency."
But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise."
Told you I'd enjoy it.
Normally the silly season doesn't start until July. Whilst Austin Mitchell is a twerp of the highest order, this is about as synthetic a row about nothing as you could possibly hope for.
The issue shouldn't be his choice of word, but the anti-business sentiment behind it.
UPDATE: Ed Balls has hardly helped things, saying that what Mitchell said was “stupid” and that he should apologise but defended him as “a character”:...
Oh Ed !
Finally someone with enough sense not to defend the indefensible.
Labour MP for Walthamstow Stella Creasy replied: "I'm glad you've discovered feminism Claire, even if just for political expediency."
But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise."
Told you I'd enjoy it.
Normally the silly season doesn't start until July. Whilst Austin Mitchell is a twerp of the highest order, this is about as synthetic a row about nothing as you could possibly hope for.
The issue shouldn't be his choice of word, but the anti-business sentiment behind it.
Oh I agree but Labour have claimed 100% ownership in the field of "wimmins ishoos" for far too long. About time some of our ladies took them on over that.
"But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise.""
She said that to Stella Creasy? Arf, Arf! I might even go so far as to give my other dog impersonation, "Woof, woof, woof!" Hilarious and is this available on video anywhere? I'd love to see Creasy's face.
"But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise.""
She said that to Stella Creasy? Arf, Arf! I might even go so far as to give my other dog impersonation, "Woof, woof, woof!" Hilarious and is this available on video anywhere? I'd love to see Creasy's face.
Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
I still think UKIP have a good chance in Newark.
I think it depends on whether that Lab thing about soft-pedaling in Newark was true or spin. If it was spin because their vote had evaporated then strange things could be happening.
Some of the support I've been getting in Broxtowe has been whisked off to Newark for the whole month and I'm getting repeated invitations from Nottingham canvass groups to go there, so it's not true in any simple sense of not bothering. The article that started the story suggested that Labour wasn't going to spend a huge amount of money on it with lots of leaflets, and that might be true - I'm in Asia at the moment so don't have any basis for assessing how it's going. I'd trust Richard Tyndall to give us a fair picture if he's willing to, even though his sympathies are with UKIP. What are you seeing?
Stella Creasey's comment is staggering in that article.
Hmm, 'staggering' ? - just a fairly typical response from the Labour Ladies. – Screaming from the table top when it’s not one of theirs, hiding under a chair when it is.
I think the key issue with the Mitchell/Rape story is the hypocrisy of the left with regards to the reaction. If a Tory backbencher had made a similar comment, the left would have jumped up and down for days over it. But as it is one of their own, they are trying to claim it as a non-story.
Mitchell knew exactly what he was doing - he just loves the limelight. And probably enjoys making Ed's life a little bit more difficult this week as well...
Yes it's the standard approach lefty shoes something accidentally offensive and it's an innocent mistake etc righty does the same and it's "x shows true colours" rubbish
That sounds like a failure of Theory of Mind - this would be a bit of a problem for a political tradition based on social solidarity.
I'm tempted to suggest that this is symptomatic of the fact that the Left have not yet dealt with their defeats in the 80s. In other words, this is all Thatcher's fault ;-)
Labour MP for Walthamstow Stella Creasy replied: "I'm glad you've discovered feminism Claire, even if just for political expediency."
But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise."
Told you I'd enjoy it.
Normally the silly season doesn't start until July. Whilst Austin Mitchell is a twerp of the highest order, this is about as synthetic a row about nothing as you could possibly hope for.
The issue shouldn't be his choice of word, but the anti-business sentiment behind it.
Hmmm. I think rape, and the abuse of the word, is a more sensitive topic than you think.
My feeling is that the level of sensitivity varies a lot by age and gender (as you might expect). I also think that Mitchell's application of a spade to the hole he's in, by dismissing it as a lot of fuss about nothing, is worse than the initial tweet.
I think the key issue with the Mitchell/Rape story is the hypocrisy of the left with regards to the reaction. If a Tory backbencher had made a similar comment, the left would have jumped up and down for days over it. But as it is one of their own, they are trying to claim it as a non-story.
That's not a Left thing, it's a politics thing.
Actually, scratch that, it's not even a politcs thing, it's a human thing. Something we or our friends/allies do which might be seen as bad has to be contextualised, justified, trivialised. Something our opponents do is a disgrace, no explanation or dissembling permitted.
Prices for Con in Newark all contracting,the 2-7 on Betfair is approaching the true price so the 4-9 generally available by the books still represents value.
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
I still think UKIP have a good chance in Newark.
I think it depends on whether that Lab thing about soft-pedaling in Newark was true or spin. If it was spin because their vote had evaporated then strange things could be happening.
Some of the support I've been getting in Broxtowe has been whisked off to Newark for the whole month and I'm getting repeated invitations from Nottingham canvass groups to go there, so it's not true in any simple sense of not bothering. The article that started the story suggested that Labour wasn't going to spend a huge amount of money on it with lots of leaflets, and that might be true - I'm in Asia at the moment so don't have any basis for assessing how it's going. I'd trust Richard Tyndall to give us a fair picture if he's willing to, even though his sympathies are with UKIP. What are you seeing?
"The article that started the story suggested that Labour wasn't going to spend a huge amount of money"
Stella Creasey's comment is staggering in that article.
Hmm, 'staggering' ? - just a fairly typical response from the Labour Ladies. – Screaming from the table top when it’s not one of theirs, hiding under a chair when it is.
See John Prescott and Eric Joyce for details.
Oh I agree. It's just staggering that we are nearly a decade and a half into the 21st Century and yet still the left think that right wing women aren't "real women". The same attitude is prevalent over minorities and gays the idea that any on the right are "self-hating" or traitors to the cause. It really fecks me off.
ITV4 - LIVE EUROPA LEAGUE FINAL (ko 7.45) - The showpiece match at the Juventus Stadium in Turin, where Juventus or Benfica take on Valencia or Sevilla (Radio times)
Any betting advice will be accepted.
Benfica have had a fantastic season and beat Juventus in the semi, so they would have to be favourites. If you want great odds Derby are 4/5 to beat qpr in the play off final, when they are much superior.
Hmmm. I think rape, and the abuse of the word, is a more sensitive topic than you think. My feeling is that the level of sensitivity varies a lot by age and gender (as you might expect).
Yes, it has been artificially hyped up so that, even when it is quite obviously a harmless (if silly) figure of speech - as in Austin Mitchell's tweet - people get absurdly het up.
You can see how absolutely silly it is by substituting another word - for example if he had tweeted 'Pfizer will murder AstraZeneca's R&D facilities', would anyone be up in arms, claiming he'd accused Pfizer of being murderers?
"But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise.""
She said that to Stella Creasy? Arf, Arf! I might even go so far as to give my other dog impersonation, "Woof, woof, woof!" Hilarious and is this available on video anywhere? I'd love to see Creasy's face.
Afraid it seems it was a twitter spat.
Dang! Never mind at least someone put that self righteous lady dog in her place for a change.
Shame about Austin Mitchell though. I used to have a lot of time for him. I didn't always agree with his views but he was worth listening to and he didn't take himself too seriously, even had a column in the Telegraph for a while. Still the old boy is getting on now and at, what 80, may be the odd lapse is no more than we can expect from a man of his age.
Hmmm. I think rape, and the abuse of the word, is a more sensitive topic than you think. My feeling is that the level of sensitivity varies a lot by age and gender (as you might expect).
Yes, it has been artificially hyped up so that, even when it is quite obviously a harmless (if silly) figure of speech - as in Austin Mitchell's tweet - people get absurdly het up.
You can see how absolutely silly it is by substituting another word - for example if he had tweeted 'Pfizer will murder AstraZeneca's R&D facilities', would anyone be up in arms, claiming he'd accused Pfizer of being murderers?
Some people go utterly batshit crazy about the word 'rape' in any context !
Hmmm. I think rape, and the abuse of the word, is a more sensitive topic than you think. My feeling is that the level of sensitivity varies a lot by age and gender (as you might expect).
Yes, it has been artificially hyped up so that, even when it is quite obviously a harmless (if silly) figure of speech - as in Austin Mitchell's tweet - people get absurdly het up.
You can see how absolutely silly it is by substituting another word - for example if he had tweeted 'Pfizer will murder AstraZeneca's R&D facilities', would anyone be up in arms, claiming he'd accused Pfizer of being murderers?
It's similar to change in the treatment of race between the 1970s and now. Nicknames such as 'chalky' were not exactly rare, and for the most part thought of as harmless except by a few holier-than-thou cranks. Not many would subscribe to that view now, of course.
I expect that those thinking a comment like Mitchell's are "a harmless figure of speech" will diminish rapidly in much the same way. The demographics pretty much guarantee it.
Some people go utterly batshit crazy about the word 'rape' in any context !
Yes, the funny thing is that we laugh at the Victorians for taking offence or being shocked by the silliest things, and compliment ourselves on being so much more grown-up and enlightened, and then we do exactly the same ourselves. The only thing which has changed is that offence is taken over a different set of words.
I expect that those thinking a comment like Mitchell's are "a harmless figure of speech" will diminish rapidly in much the same way. The demographics pretty much guarantee it.
Oh, you might well be right. Especially in politics, the verbal minefields are ever more dangerous. That doesn't make them any less silly.
I expect that those thinking a comment like Mitchell's are "a harmless figure of speech" will diminish rapidly in much the same way. The demographics pretty much guarantee it.
Oh, you might well be right. Especially in politics, the verbal minefields are ever more dangerous. That doesn't make them any less silly.
You're sounding a bit "Victor Meldrew" there, Richard
Yes, the funny thing is that we laugh at the Victorians for taking offence or being shocked by the silliest things, and compliment ourselves on being so much more grown-up and enlightened, and then we do exactly the same ourselves. The only thing which has changed is that offence is taken over a different set of words.
Soon, no doubt, it will be forbidden to refer to the Rape of Lewes, or its historical importance, for fear of causing "offence".
You're sounding a bit "Victor Meldrew" there, Richard
No, I find it amusing. The rules of verbal etiquette, and the list of words you're not allowed to use, are as strict and as hilarious today as they were in 1874.
"Yes, it has been artificially hyped up so that, even when it is quite obviously a harmless (if silly) figure of speech"
Of course it was a harmless figure of speech, a metaphor which people would not have thought amiss for centuries past until very recently. But we live in the days of Newspeak, Mr Nabavi, and to use a metaphor or even simile that contains a word that the wimmin deem offensive is beyond the pale.
Hmmm. I think rape, and the abuse of the word, is a more sensitive topic than you think. My feeling is that the level of sensitivity varies a lot by age and gender (as you might expect).
Yes, it has been artificially hyped up so that, even when it is quite obviously a harmless (if silly) figure of speech - as in Austin Mitchell's tweet - people get absurdly het up.
You can see how absolutely silly it is by substituting another word - for example if he had tweeted 'Pfizer will murder AstraZeneca's R&D facilities', would anyone be up in arms, claiming he'd accused Pfizer of being murderers?
It's similar to change in the treatment of race between the 1970s and now. Nicknames such as 'chalky' were not exactly rare, and for the most part thought of as harmless except by a few holier-than-thou cranks. Not many would subscribe to that view now, of course.
I expect that those thinking a comment like Mitchell's are "a harmless figure of speech" will diminish rapidly in much the same way. The demographics pretty much guarantee it.
I'm not so sure. I think one of the things that fuels support for UKIP is peoples' resentment at this obsession with policing speech.
And if he won’t, then the party should remove the whip - because that’s what we’d be calling for if a Tory did likewise. And this is no time – and no issue – for double standards.
Of course it was a harmless figure of speech, a metaphor which people would not have thought amiss for centuries past until very recently. But we live in the days of Newspeak, Mr Nabavi, and to use a metaphor or even simile that contains a word that the wimmin deem offensive is beyond the pale.
Very true, Mr Llama - but are you sure that 'beyond the pale' is still OK?
And if he won’t, then the party should remove the whip - because that’s what we’d be calling for if a Tory did likewise. And this is no time – and no issue – for double standards.
Comments
Triumph for yet another Old Etonian.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/labour-has-lost-sight-of-what-it-stands-for.1399979290
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/poll-position-defies-labour-on-both-sides-of-the-border.1400060291
I always find it amusing when people are so certain of how those politically opposed to them are going to behave. It's the "people of Party A will vote for Party B if Party A is on the slide/has no chance".mentality.
It seems almost a maxim that political activists understand their enemies far better than their friends.(assuming they have any).
Anyhow, polls a-plenty and for some the message seems clear though with ratings ranging from 31-34%, the Conservatives aren't really in a game-winning position yet. In truth, the statistical dead-heat has been there for a while with some pollsters.
Those who follow ICM over the years know it throws out occasional Party outliers both on the high and low sides so the 31% Labour number may change considerably next month and as the Ashcroft poll is first time out it remains to be seen how those numbers will change/develop.
Even so, we come rolling back to the same questions about Labour and how a Labour-governed Britain would differ from a Conservative-governed Britain or what we have now. Many on here will condemn anything and everything Labour propose almost on instinct. A more serious analysis would be in order but there's nothing yet to analyse.
100% of people I spoke to said they were voting ukip at the Euros
Both unprompted!
One cited media/other parties ganging up to dig dirt on kippers as his motive... He said he'd prob vote Tory at the GE though.... He did say he wanted out of EU, and that he was from Newham but you need a passport to get in there now
The other guy said this country needs a change and the others are all the same
Over and out
Taking in part of Sherwood Forest you mean?
And quite rightly, too. The turn around in the economy may have uncertain footings, but it has been faster and broader than any pom-pom shaker for the Tories could have sanely hoped for.
But if the Right has been wrong-footed by this turn around, the Left has been shown to be horribly, 180 degrees wrong in its assessment of how the economy would perform. Being shown up must hurt. It might explain the worst of their visceral hatred towards Tories. No-one likes to be shown to be wrong. Again....and again...and again....
But Labour are always wrong. They never learn. Yada yada yada....
In the beggining of the euro election campaign people's preference for the euros was influenced by what they would vote for westminster, now its the opposite effect.
Romford Conservatives falsely quote residents in newsletters
"To one man’s outrage he was quoted as insulting Barking and Dagenham - where his family live.
The newsletters were sent to wards across the Romford constituency and claim to contain messages from local residents.
Thomas Waller, 62, of Garrick House, appears to say in the Hylands leaflet: “People in this area do not want Havering turning into another Barking and Dagenham.”
But speaking to the Recorder he said: “For the life of me, I didn’t say it and I would never have said it
My daughter and grandchild live in Barking and Dagenham, my wife was brought up there. There’s no way I would’ve said it.
“I’m certainly not a member of the Conservative party,” he said. “My dad would turn in his grave if he thought I was,”
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/politics/romford_conservatives_falsely_quote_residents_in_newsletters_1_3598463
"For those punters who believe the Greens have somehow magically and in no time at all doubled their share of the vote, which I most assuredly do not, then Brighton Pavilion is surely the place to invest"
I am saying if there is a specific type of voter who would shift lib/lab -> green, under the right circumstances then that would already have happened in Brighton so your original point wouldn't necessarily apply.
Also I'm not saying the Green vote has doubled. I'm saying that's where the Core Lib vote would go if they gave up.
Given that i'd say *if* this poll is a bit out of whack then the reason might be over sampling Lib voters.
edit: I see the other point you might be making now. In which case fair enough.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/liverpool/content/articles/2007/11/14/nob_autumnwatch_favourite_tree_feature.shtml
http://www.allertonoak.com/images/MenloveAvenue.jpg
http://www.allertonoak.com/merseyWalks/GreenBeltTrail.html
http://comresupdates.eu.com/DCJ-2GEZW-F21LMD8E11/cr.aspx
As I've said here before, I've always thought that pro-Russian separatism was very strong in Crimea but much more nuanced in the rest of the east of Ukraine: the idea of getting westernised and rich has its attractions and not everyone wants to sign up with the nationalist zealots on either side. If the poll is accurate it's delicately balanced, which is perhaps why both Kiev and Moscow have refrained from massive military intervention and the local rebels have been obscuring whether they want separation or merely regionalism. A deal still looks possible if there was someone trusted to make it work, and perhaps Merkel is the right person to put it forward once the further referendum and election are out of the way.
Or cowers, until the sisterhood tell him to do something about it.
Has Harman said anything?
What has Ms Harman got to say about that?
Nothing new there then.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100271565/is-cheerful-ed-miliband-oblivious-to-the-desperate-mess-hes-in/
Mitchell knew exactly what he was doing - he just loves the limelight. And probably enjoys making Ed's life a little bit more difficult this week as well...
Things have certainly improved over at the Beeb, any mention of a Labour MP used to be filed under Scottish weather...!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27411712
How is that different to what Mitchell has done?
But Ms Perry hit back, saying: "Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise."
Told you I'd enjoy it.
Oh Ed !
1. The General election campaign has started
2. The Tories are up for the fight and going to hit Labour mercilessly on everything
3. Labour aren't prepared for it
How that plays out/influences opinion remains to be seen but Labour need to brace themselves for one hell of a lot of incoming.
The issue shouldn't be his choice of word, but the anti-business sentiment behind it.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/senior-labour-figures-back-rory-stewart-top-defence-post
She said that to Stella Creasy? Arf, Arf! I might even go so far as to give my other dog impersonation, "Woof, woof, woof!" Hilarious and is this available on video anywhere? I'd love to see Creasy's face.
See John Prescott and Eric Joyce for details.
I'm tempted to suggest that this is symptomatic of the fact that the Left have not yet dealt with their defeats in the 80s. In other words, this is all Thatcher's fault ;-)
My feeling is that the level of sensitivity varies a lot by age and gender (as you might expect). I also think that Mitchell's application of a spade to the hole he's in, by dismissing it as a lot of fuss about nothing, is worse than the initial tweet.
Actually, scratch that, it's not even a politcs thing, it's a human thing. Something we or our friends/allies do which might be seen as bad has to be contextualised, justified, trivialised. Something our opponents do is a disgrace, no explanation or dissembling permitted.
Hmmn. quite tempted now...
Ah, in that case it wouldn't mean much.
You can see how absolutely silly it is by substituting another word - for example if he had tweeted 'Pfizer will murder AstraZeneca's R&D facilities', would anyone be up in arms, claiming he'd accused Pfizer of being murderers?
She's normally first in the queue for a twitter row.
Perhaps Mrs Bercow can inform us of her opinion too !
Shame about Austin Mitchell though. I used to have a lot of time for him. I didn't always agree with his views but he was worth listening to and he didn't take himself too seriously, even had a column in the Telegraph for a while. Still the old boy is getting on now and at, what 80, may be the odd lapse is no more than we can expect from a man of his age.
Just catching up. Opinium - decent poll for Labour. But that right there is straw clutching as it's a b-league pollster.
@Hurst FPT - wise words from a wise head
@Watcher - LOL. Labour have lost the election according to many on here. You can read all about it.
*Now Woman Up*
And I'm not talking about cross dressing.
I expect that those thinking a comment like Mitchell's are "a harmless figure of speech" will diminish rapidly in much the same way. The demographics pretty much guarantee it.
"Yes, it has been artificially hyped up so that, even when it is quite obviously a harmless (if silly) figure of speech"
Of course it was a harmless figure of speech, a metaphor which people would not have thought amiss for centuries past until very recently. But we live in the days of Newspeak, Mr Nabavi, and to use a metaphor or even simile that contains a word that the wimmin deem offensive is beyond the pale.
And if he won’t, then the party should remove the whip - because that’s what we’d be calling for if a Tory did likewise. And this is no time – and no issue – for double standards.
http://labourlist.org/2014/05/apologise-austin-because-nothing-but-rape-is-rape/
"I miss you my little [moderated]-bunny"
Unfortunately auto-correct turned bunny into "bucket"
Instant ban for trivialising....