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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both LAB and Ukip drop 4% in latest Ipsos-MORI poll with th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both LAB and Ukip drop 4% in latest Ipsos-MORI poll with the Greens jumping 5
Given recent polls today’s May Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI will come as something as a relief to Labour. They are down 4% but still in the lead.
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Or does it just reflect badly on the shower he's up against?
How much more can they go?
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 10.0%
Con seat lead 100 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament:13.8%
Chance of a Tory majority: 86.2%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
A large shift to the Tories, odds-on for a majority for the first time since January 2012. Now of course it's just one poll, although the L&N model does takes account of poll variation.
Dire for Labour...
So: the value IMO is on the low side of at least one of those bets. I would guess Labour.
1. why have you based this forecast on the MOri poll rather than ICM (which people, rightly or wrongly, regard as the "Gold Standard")?
2. What were the figures from last month? I appreciate you probably posted them but I am not on here all the time so would be really grateful if you could post the comparators.
3. I would also really appreciate some indicator of spread around the central forecast.
Thanks very much
It's not mirrored by any previous/subsequent polls.
Westminster VI, UKIP.
Ashcroft: 15%, ICM: 15%, IPSOS 11%, YouGov 14%, YouGov 15%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
It's a bit daft to take a model and use it in a context it was never designed for.
http://www.dcern.org.uk/documents/LeboandNorpothForecast2010.pdf
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/231982539_The_PM_and_the_Pendulum_Dynamic_Forecasting_of_British_Elections/file/3deec52c594e893d0e.pdf
As for your last question... don't be so bloody insulting. It's all in a spreadsheet that only I understand, anyhow! (^_-)
Stan James, yet again, have suspended all their constituency prices.
"Exactly" any of those percentages isn't very likely with several million votes.
Greens above/below 7%
Lib Dems above/below 9%
Conservatives above/below 24%
Labour above/below 27%
although (edit)
It could lead to a bit of controversy if, say UKIP get 28.9%.. every media outlet would report it as 29% and you would settle it under 29% as a winner, and over as a loser... 28.5% would make more sense I think, it is more usual to be under over in that way
Customer service would be fielding angry calls
SNP 1/4
Labour 11/4
UKIP 100/1
Conservatives 100/1
Greens 200/1
"Time will tell, but one smaller consequence will be that if a coalition does rule Britain beginning in 2010 it will make the forecasting process a much different exercise in the future."
Main problem being that if the Government is a Coalition you can't model elections as a simple pendulum between Government and Opposition. The simple two-body problem has now become a three-body problem.
But I have always accepted your substantive point, in any case. I just thought political sophisticates on a site like this might wish to know what the model is saying, before we get to its final forecast...
Btw, who can say for certain there won't be an election...in three months time?
I'll stop, if you like.
(^_-)
http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353
"Two Hungarian men have been jailed for their part in a large scale human trafficking ring which saw victims lured to Kirklees and forced into near slavery.
Heckmondwike-based Janos Orsos, 43, was sentenced to five years behind bars for masterminding the sophisticated scam in which fellow countrymen were paid as little as £10 per week for working up to 100 hours."
"Workers lived in accommodation in Ravensthorpe, Batley, Heckmondwike and Bradford. Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house."
The political class' version of reality is a total lie but only a minority know it.
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
SNP 39% (+19)
Lab 22% (-20)
Con 19% (+2)
LD 9% (-10)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri-politicalmonitor-may2014-tables-WR.pdf
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch 1h
Our latest #EU'14 results UKIP have a two point lead over Lab while the Tories remain in 3rd, LibDems slip to just 7% http://bit.ly/1nIPqeu
:^D
Then I saw the ipsosMori poll with a 4% drop for UKIP, but even more bizarre a 5% swing to the Greens. :^C
That latter poll must be an outlier as it doesn't correspond to any other poll we've see recently.
I think the pollsters have got their knickers in a twist and the UKIP surge is confounding all of them but especially ipsos and Populus.
"When it happens," one Labour MP tells me, "you lot will all be looking in the wrong direction."
... "If Labour comes third," he tells me, "it will have a phenomenal effect in Scotland. People will be asking if we have a future in Britain."
His point is an interesting one. Look at who is driving the Unionist cause in Scotland right now. The bedrock of the No campaign is the Labour voter, as the Tories and Lib Dems are in short supply there.
If Labour tanks in the European Parliament elections, we may well expect the Labour share of the vote to drop north of the border. If Farage comes first, then all eyes will turn to Edinburgh. It could well be a significant blow to the No campaign. So when the Sunday night Euro election scoreboard comes round, have a good long look.
If England is being won by UKIP and Scotland is being won by the SNP, then there is no more fertile breeding ground for a Nationalist Yes to Scottish independence.
It's something much of Westminster may not have woken up to yet.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27397551
1. Approval of the Prime Minister is the best measure of how happy the electorate are with the Prime Minister compared to the alternatives on offer.
2. The electorate have a memory of how happy they were with previous Prime Ministers of either party, but this memory decays with time.
So the reason that the Tories will do better in the next election under this model, compared to the previous election is that:
(a) Enough of the electorate approve of the Prime Minister.
(b) The electorate's happy memories of the early Blair years are fading, but they remember what it was like post-Iraq and with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister all too well.
One of the interesting things about the next election is that at the moment the L&N model is making different predictions to Rod's successful swingback theory - based on averaging the by-election swings in the Parliament and swinging back a bit to the Government.
I'm looking forward to see if they still differ in 2015, and which one turns out to be most accurate in that case.
In the commentary MORI say that the decline for UKIP reflects the bursting of their post-debate bubble - it is possible that the timing of the previous MORI poll made it a slight UKIP outlier in the other direction, and this poll is just a slight over-correction downwards. It's hard to tell just looking at a monthly poll.
Ignore the Scottish polling at your peril
You may well be right but I just don't buy it. Something smells to me and my twitching nose is seldom wrong. Except when I bet on the gee gees.
"Up to 50 men were kept in a single Batley house."
How many houses like that would it take to make every single government statistic bogus?
Some of us kept on telling you that Labour's lead/Cannae were overrated and just not good enough.
Labour must be worried that the next election will be their Zama.
Ed Miliband = Hannibal.
There are sillier bets out there.
& Wasn't "Night of Thunder" just such an obvious long odds pick in hindsight for the Guineas !
i) PM approval (adjusted for the two-party vote) turns out to be the best proxy for predicting governing party performance at the next election. Cameron's ratings are historically high, and this month's 39/65 = 60% is an extraordinarily good score. Over 50% almost invariably leads to re-election, at least in terms of the PV.
ii) There appears to be an auto-regressive component to British elections. Usually a party, once installed, can look forward to 2-3 terms before being ejected. A particularly good or bad PM, judged by the score in i) can peturb that cycle. But the deeper into the cycle, the better a PM must do to prevent the natural swing of the pendulum from asserting itself...
http://www.newstatesman.com/media/2014/05/labour-mp-austin-mitchell-seems-call-pfizer-rapists-twitter
That said, does anyone believe Hillary Clinton could be a good lay with the exchange firm at odds of around 1/2 in terms of her winning the Democratic nomination in 2016 following recent concerns expressed about her health, albeit from the GOP.
Betfair's 9.6 = 8.17/1 net in old money. Handy for trading out of though.
2) Last month, the central forecast was a Tory 7.4% vote lead, 59 seat lead, 38% chance Tory majority, 62% HP, other figures virtually no different.
3) Around a 30-seat seat lead standard deviation, 1.75% vote lead standard deviation.
Oh, and the original paper can be downloaded from one of the links here..
http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?cluster=8741876153688807896&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
Think I might follow you in there.
@GuidoFawkes: Oh dear. Austin Mitchell tells Huffpo he won't apologise. Labour spokesman says he has.
Lab 2.92
Con 3.9
Any betting advice will be accepted.
Surely Lab can't slump to 22 in Scotland?!
2/5 Labour
5/2 UKIP
10/1 Con
?
Does anybody still think CON won;t do it?
I read the tories haven;t won a by-election whilst in government in 25 years, so I guess the answer is yes!!