Worst possible time for Labour for crossover to happen. Too late to change the leadership team.
Too late to ditch the intellectually self confident (less popular than Osborne) Ed, but not too late to ditch Ed (careless driver if he still has a license) Balls, Tristram (free schools are great, terrible, great, terrible) Hunt, Andy (Stafford) Burnham, Yvette (does she still have a front bench job?) Cooper and some other deadweights...
Labour on 32%....nah not buying it...Labour / Tories gap down to basically 1-2%, that doesn't seem improbable. 34/36 seems to be where we are now.
Interesting thing about this poll - combined vote share of Labour & Conservatives is 66%, compared to 66.6% at GE2010 [for Great Britain, so not including Northern Ireland].
That vast majority of opinion polls during this Parliament have given a much larger share of the vote to the main two parties, principally due to the Lib Dem collapse, but I've never really thought it was likely to happen.
Next up - predict Crossback. It's all about Crossback now.
The next poll will have a (small) Labour lead, IMHO. It's in the nature of the beast. It will take some time for the average of (say) the last five polls, or even for three polls in a row, to show a Conservative lead.
And there is always the possibility that the trend we have seen for the last 6-12 months of a decreasing Labour lead will be reversed, and they start soaring into the sky once more. I doubt it'll happen under squirrelEd, though.
We can see how "crossover" occurred from Opposition back to Government here;
Unfortunately for the 83-87 Parliament there's no graph, but in both Parliaments is appears as though the shift was quite sudden and dramatic - When people shifted back to Maggie they did so suddenly and decisively.
Personally I would expect something much more gradual and subtle, with Labour and Tories basically trading blows for a few months, but who knows?
That's being quite generous. It's more accurate to say that Labour supporters rate the most incompetent and evil Chancellor in history more highly than they rate the intellectually self confident Ed Miliband.
Why didn't you just type "I am crushingly stupid"?
Comments
That vast majority of opinion polls during this Parliament have given a much larger share of the vote to the main two parties, principally due to the Lib Dem collapse, but I've never really thought it was likely to happen.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
Unfortunately for the 83-87 Parliament there's no graph, but in both Parliaments is appears as though the shift was quite sudden and dramatic - When people shifted back to Maggie they did so suddenly and decisively.
Personally I would expect something much more gradual and subtle, with Labour and Tories basically trading blows for a few months, but who knows?
God Damn it!
I walked past my local PP shop last night and meant to back UKIP at 11/2.. forgot and now 7/2 is best price!