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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Euros poll has Ukip moving up – Opinium moving down

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Euros poll has Ukip moving up – Opinium moving down

The big polling news is that Lord Ashcroft has announced that starting this week he’ll be doing a weekly phone poll right through until the general election. He’ll also be doing regular battleground surveys.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Oh which pollster(s) to believe
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    And Huzzah to Lord Ashcroft
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    And Huzzah to Populus, clearly the new gold standard.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    edited May 2014
    It all hinges on who actually turns up to vote, as opposed to those who have said they will. If the usual Euro apathy rules again, it's all up in the air.

    Edit: As UKIP and Tories both fish from the older generation pool, they may be more resilient than Labour.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2014
    FPT
    Pulpstar said:

    @Shadsy Nice to see Eastleigh coming in , on that one at 7-2 :)

    Does Thanet South go odds on when Farage announces he is standing there ;) ?

    I have been watching out for Farage's comment on Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca due to Pfizer's historical connection with the Thanet South constituency. After 60 years of operating an R&D facility in Sandwich, Pfizer announced it would be closing down its operations in 2011 with the loss of some 5,000 jobs. Pfizer was by far the largest employer in the constituency.

    Since then the former Pfizer site, now sold by Pfizer and renamed as "Discovery Park", has attracted significant funds as a designated Enterprise Zone has attracted over sixty new, mainly R&D, companies employing 1,500. Even Pfizer itself changed its all-out plans and has retained a small operation on site.

    All in all the general view is that Pfizer has behaved well in the circumstances and has been very supportive of attempts to regenerate the site. Portraying the company as a villain may not therefore be well received in Thanet.

    Given that Farage has close links with the area (born just outside Thanet South's boundaries, stood in the constituency in the 2005 GE and UKIP is supported nationally by a major donor, Alan Bown, a constituency resident), his reluctance to attack Pfizer may well be connected to his local knowledge and his plans to stand in the constituency in 2015.

    Note his comment today on his LBC phone-in where he is merely content to portray the EU as the villain rather than the US company:

    Q: What conditions should be put on the Pfizer AstraZeneca deal for it to be allowed to go ahead?

    Farage says for the last week we have had farcical debate. We cannot decide, because this is in the hands of a Brussels bureaucrat, Mr Almunia.

    It is difficult to accredit Farage with being subtle and light-touched but here may be a rare example. I am slightly more confident in my bet on Farage standing in Thanet South as a result of the way he has been handling the Pfizer takeover.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Both seem to have Con and LD nudging up a touch.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The big polling news is that Lord Ashcroft has announced that starting this week he’ll be doing a weekly phone poll right through until the general election.
    That is fantastic news for polling geeks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    If UKIP win, that's super for them, but anything else must count as defeat (I reckon they will top the poll, but the PFJ may harm their prospects).
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    And Huzzah to Populus, clearly the new gold standard.

    Not sure about gold std. But certainly one of the more respected pollsters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh which pollster(s) to believe

    Why not believe both ?

    UKIP 29.5; Lab 26; Con 23; LD 9 seems perfectly sensible...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh which pollster(s) to believe

    well they both have them within MOE of 30%. On UKIP I think it is less helpful to look at trends as I think all pollsters have had difficulties getting a handle on them, whether to prompt or not, how to weight etc. So it could just be that the last Opinium oversampled.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interestingly Pfizer have announced plans to sell bonds in big size today...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    OblitusSumMe said:

    The big polling news is that Lord Ashcroft has announced that starting this week he’ll be doing a weekly phone poll right through until the general election.
    That is fantastic news for polling geeks.

    Good - Online polls have so many adjustments to particularly UKIP that getting an accurate gauge on them is very very hard indeed due to self selection bias and imo the overcompensation often seen for it.

    Phone polls will be a better judge.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Opinium UNS

    UKIP 23 (+10)
    Lab 24 (+11)
    Con 17 (-9)
    LD 2 (-9)
    Green 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    Lab emerge 1 seat ahead despite coming second in the PV. Shows that D'Hondt is slightly biased to Lab...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited May 2014
    Ashcroft says his first phone poll has the Tories ahead:

    twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/465851669675515904
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh which pollster(s) to believe

    well they both have them within MOE of 30%. On UKIP I think it is less helpful to look at trends as I think all pollsters have had difficulties getting a handle on them, whether to prompt or not, how to weight etc. So it could just be that the last Opinium oversampled.

    Yep THink the +/- is due to this not because of any fall in support for UKIP. Looking at the Populus data tables something similiar seems to have happened.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all, so the weekend polls are looking more like outliers. Looking more like Labour could be 3rd in the Euros.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Quincel, Labour down on 32 seems out of kilter with other polls. All other numbers seem more or less in line.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    edited May 2014
    Quincel said:

    Ashcroft says his first phone poll has the Tories ahead:

    twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/465851669675515904

    That's an impressive way to debut, not that I'm suggesting it's contrived but to launch a poll and get a result that will imminently get talked about must be pleasing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    http://images.dpchallenge.com/images_portfolio/35000-39999/37252/800/Copyrighted_Image_Reuse_Prohibited_355060.jpg
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Just seen the performance of wee Dougie on Sunday Politics yesterday.

    It does now appear clear that Miliband & Co actually believe all their evil Tory bollox to be actual fact and seem to be losing the plot. They are likely to go more and more left wing the nearer it gets to May 2015 as they believe their own hype.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Quincel said:

    Ashcroft says his first phone poll has the Tories ahead:

    twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/465851669675515904

    Squirrel video! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugowjSrmyeI (parental advisory)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    Looks like there's a new Gold Standard ;-)
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2014
    At these Euro polling levels, the surprise should be that the Con vote is holding up so well compared to last time and the surge of UKIP. The 2009 figs were:
    C 27.90% LAB 15.80% LD 13.80% UKIP 16.60% GRN 8.10%

    Also noted that the Lab polling in 2009 (last 5 surveys) was running at almost 2% points above the actual result whereas the C result was 0.7% above the polling.

    If Yougov in the article was right we could then see the C result dead level with Labour. What would it take for a Lab Leadership crisis? Lab 3rd in the Euros?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic and on Ashcroft, I'm very doubtful whether we should be treating any polls very seriously at present. The public is in a febrile and frivolous mood, and there's no clear way to know how the public mood will develop over the next year.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Opinium have published the details of their Observer Westminster VI poll.

    Mr Farage has the highest net approval of the four party leaders (+30/-40).

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-6th-may-2014

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    So having ridiculed all those who got a crossover prediction wrong by mere months Compouter faces the ignomy of having his / her prediction out by at least a year. Tragic.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ashcroft full write-up here - some interesting stuff:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-first-of-my-new-national-polls-the-tories-lead-by-two-points.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Basil defects to the Pirate Party

    http://bit.ly/1sEatP3
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Which company runs Ashcroft's Phone polls? (ie can it be compared to a previous poll)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I've updated the thread header with Lord Ashcroft's first and new phone poll

  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    RodCrosby got it right then, assuming that the new Ashcroft poll is considered to be in play.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    BOOM Crossover baby!

    Need to see it with other established pollsters though I think.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    On topic and on Ashcroft, I'm very doubtful whether we should be treating any polls very seriously at present. The public is in a febrile and frivolous mood, and there's no clear way to know how the public mood will develop over the next year.

    Certainly it would be very surprising if the opinion polls scores were not significantly different by the time most of the public have forgotten about the upcoming elections, and hopeful eyes turn towards potentially clearing skies with hands poised on barbecue skewers.

    It's the wild changes that make watching the polls fun and, I imagine, for those who bet, profitable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Lennon said:

    Which company runs Ashcroft's Phone polls? (ie can it be compared to a previous poll)

    In the past, he has used Populus, but populus haven't conducted a phone poll since late 2012
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Time for everyone's favourite squirrel:

    http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130625111842/nicktoons-united/images/6/66/Sandy_Cheeks_-_Bikini.png
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    We're expecting the Guardian/ICM poll today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pepe Mel gone.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    This seems to be Opinium's first EU Parliament poll. So they can't be showing UKIP 'moving down', this poll is the starting point.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Re the Ashcroft poll a couple of things to remember

    1) It is just one poll
    2) Even on this score, Ed becomes PM
    3) Poor Basil
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Wow, now this is a poll finding to savour:

    How positive or negative do you feel about each of the following, using a scale from -100 (very negative) to +100 (very positive), where zero means neither positive or negative?

    George Osborne: -30.61
    Ed Miliband: -31.23

    Put your coffee down before reading the next bit.... that is amongst Labour supporters!!

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/National-poll-summary-140512.pdf
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YouGov UNS

    UKIP 24 (+11)
    Lab 22 (+9)
    Con 17 (-9)
    LD 3 (-8)
    Green* 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (nc)
    Plaid 1 (nc)

    *estimate, no Green figure given.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    AveryLP said:

    Basil defects to the Pirate Party
    http://bit.ly/1sEatP3

    Oooh Aaarghh... I think that if he is wanting a new crossover challenge - Pirate Party to be big enough to warrant separate inclusion in 'Others' (so like the Greens at the moment).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    1,001 adults were interviewed by telephone between 9 – 11 May 2014. Results have been weighted to be
    representative of all adults in Great Britain
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Ashcroft full write-up here - some interesting stuff:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-first-of-my-new-national-polls-the-tories-lead-by-two-points.html

    Richard

    You neglected to quote the best bit directly:

    Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46).

    In memoriam tim.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lennon said:

    Which company runs Ashcroft's Phone polls? (ie can it be compared to a previous poll)

    In the past, he has used Populus, but populus haven't conducted a phone poll since late 2012
    What does "CATI" mean in the table header?

    [Edited to say: Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing. Thought it might be an obscure MR company]

    Anyway, I though milord Ashcroft was his own polling organisation, he just contracts out the tedious job of phoning 1,001 people and asking them PITA questions.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    First!

    This is great news for the YeSNP campaign...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    if the party suffers a poor result on 22 May, becoming the first opposition party in the last 20 years not to win the European elections, Labour's tensions could once again burst into the open.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/labour-tensions-over-election-strategy-are-growing
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lennon said:

    Which company runs Ashcroft's Phone polls? (ie can it be compared to a previous poll)

    In the past, he has used Populus, but populus haven't conducted a phone poll since late 2012
    What does "CATI" mean in the table header?

    Anyway, I though milord Ashcroft was his own polling organisation, he just contracts out the tedious job of phoning 1,001 people and asking them PITA questions.

    Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing.

    In the past he subcontracts, he comes up with the questions and the areas they should target, such as marginals etc, but the fieldwork is done by pollsters.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    'by May', and here it is right in the middle of May...

    Not a bad prediction, even if I dare say so myself!

    (^_-)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Put your coffee down before reading the next bit.... that is amongst Labour supporters!!

    That's good but I think I'm going to enjoy the excuses even more.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Wow, now this is a poll finding to savour:

    How positive or negative do you feel about each of the following, using a scale from -100 (very negative) to +100 (very positive), where zero means neither positive or negative?

    George Osborne: -30.61
    Ed Miliband: -31.23

    Put your coffee down before reading the next bit.... that is amongst Labour supporters!!

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/National-poll-summary-140512.pdf

    So basically.... Ed's crap.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    OblitusSumMe said:

    antifrank said:

    On topic and on Ashcroft, I'm very doubtful whether we should be treating any polls very seriously at present. The public is in a febrile and frivolous mood, and there's no clear way to know how the public mood will develop over the next year.

    Certainly it would be very surprising if the opinion polls scores were not significantly different by the time most of the public have forgotten about the upcoming elections, and hopeful eyes turn towards potentially clearing skies with hands poised on barbecue skewers.

    It's the wild changes that make watching the polls fun and, I imagine, for those who bet, profitable.
    My current betting strategy is based around UKIP doing very well in the Euros, as my posts on my own site, I hope, make clear.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Ashcroft full write-up here - some interesting stuff:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-first-of-my-new-national-polls-the-tories-lead-by-two-points.html

    Richard

    You neglected to quote the best bit directly:

    Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46).

    In memoriam tim.
    I belive he is still among us and saving his pocket money for yet another payout to the pbTories.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    anotherDave said:

    This seems to be Opinium's first EU Parliament poll. So they can't be showing UKIP 'moving down', this poll is the starting point.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/european-parliament-polling-6th-may

    "Changes refer to our previous unpublished poll (data tables available shortly) conducted between the 29th April and the 1st May."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: Tories now clear favs to win most votes at G.E. after @LordAshcroft poll. Labour still favs to win most seats. http://t.co/8985Dy2GDR
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The Ashcroft data tables have the same presentation of ICM polls
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Slackbladder said:

    So basically.... Ed's crap.

    That's being quite generous. It's more accurate to say that Labour supporters rate the most incompetent and evil Chancellor in history more highly than they rate the intellectually self confident Ed Miliband.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    Almost no stable government possible with that result.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Daily Politics interview with Unite Against Fascism (UAF) bod. UAF apparently _don't_ think UKIP are fascists.

    http://youtu.be/sVFlCRY3cy4
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Note also that Labour supporters have a more favourable view of Nick Clegg than of Ed Miliband.

    Mr Axelrod, I think you have taken on an interesting challenge.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    Almost no stable government possible with that result.
    Grand Coalition.

    Dave as PM, George Osborne as Chancellor, Ed Balls as Chief Sec to the Treasury, Ed Miliband as Home Sec?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Interesting that swing voters rank both Farage and UKIP below Clegg as the least favoured of any on the list. I wonder if that says anything about the solidity of the UKIP vote or if there is a limit at present to the size of its vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:


    That's being quite generous. It's more accurate to say that Labour supporters rate the most incompetent and evil Chancellor in history more highly than they rate the intellectually self confident Ed Miliband.

    Like
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    rcs1000 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    Almost no stable government possible with that result.
    I think Lib Dems will outperform UNS of their VI number at GE2015.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    Interesting that swing voters rank both Farage and UKIP below Clegg as the least favoured of any on the list. I wonder if that says anything about the solidity of the UKIP vote or if there is a limit at present to the size of its vote.

    Given that UKIP attracts swing voters, and LDs don't, I think it says there's a mistake somewhere.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarkSenior said:

    The Ashcroft data tables have the same presentation of ICM polls

    Yes, and there's some interesting stuff in there. It looks like the Greens are on 5% in this poll, most of that coming from 2010 Lib Dems, but also most of those being "swing voters" who might vote differently in 2015 to how they say now.

    The Tories have a lead in this swing voter category, and they also notably have a really strong lead in the C2's, by 33% to 22% (Table 3). Slight note of caution on this is that the C2s were upweighted by 50% in this poll's sample from 140 unweighted to 218 weighted.

    Will be interesting to take another look at that sub-sample in next weeks poll.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Looks like the Conservatives will again need a coalition with Lib Dems if they want to be in government.

    But will Lib Dem hold enough seats at the next general election to make this possible?

    The Conservative Party needs to do whatever it can to help the Lib Dems get back its deserters to Labour.This will help both Cons and Lib Dems retain some seats against Labour.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    And what would the Effective Number of Parties be?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    antifrank said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    antifrank said:

    On topic and on Ashcroft, I'm very doubtful whether we should be treating any polls very seriously at present. The public is in a febrile and frivolous mood, and there's no clear way to know how the public mood will develop over the next year.

    Certainly it would be very surprising if the opinion polls scores were not significantly different by the time most of the public have forgotten about the upcoming elections, and hopeful eyes turn towards potentially clearing skies with hands poised on barbecue skewers.

    It's the wild changes that make watching the polls fun and, I imagine, for those who bet, profitable.
    My current betting strategy is based around UKIP doing very well in the Euros, as my posts on my own site, I hope, make clear.
    I think they will. The graph on the Wikipedia page still shows them averaging less than last year's peak by about half a point (although if you average the 10 most recent polls it now puts them over 15%) but that was after the publicity they got for doing fairly well in the County elections. This year they are going to get a double dose of publicity with a no doubt much improved poll in the locals compared with the last District elections, and then probably winning the Euros. Lorra lorra publicity. The question is how much they will tail off over the next year but my guess is they won't go much below 12% as that seems to be where they levelled out at before the current pre-Euros publicity. The next question is whether they will pick up an election campaign boost - depends on OfCom I suspect - and whether people who support them for local/Euro elections will still vote for them in a GE. Certainly they're a big potential spoiler.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    migrationwatch ‏@migrationwatch 27m

    .@CVar_Sil you are now forecasting Rom&Bulg migration in line with our estimates, which you dismissed as 'speculating wildly' last August
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Blimey

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7m

    In my poll, 52% of Con voters, 47% of Lab, 61% of Lib Dems and 47% of UKIP say they may change their mind before the election.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JohnLilburne said:

    anotherDave said:

    This seems to be Opinium's first EU Parliament poll. So they can't be showing UKIP 'moving down', this poll is the starting point.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/european-parliament-polling-6th-may

    "Changes refer to our previous unpublished poll (data tables available shortly) conducted between the 29th April and the 1st May."
    !!
    Thanks for that.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    David_Evershed said:

    Looks like the Conservatives will again need a coalition with Lib Dems if they want to be in government.

    But will Lib Dem hold enough seats at the next general election to make this possible?

    The Conservative Party needs to do whatever it can to help the Lib Dems get back its deserters to Labour.This will help both Cons and Lib Dems retain some seats against Labour.

    Appoint Nick Clegg as our next European Commissioner and allow the Lib Dems to choose a leader more amenable to the 2010 LD > Lab switchers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Hopi Sen ‏@hopisen 5m

    How to be sensible: Be no more excited/worried by @LordAshcroft poll with Tory lead than you were by @YouGov poll with 7 point Labour lead..
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    Almost no stable government possible with that result.
    Grand Coalition.

    Dave as PM, George Osborne as Chancellor, Ed Balls as Chief Sec to the Treasury, Ed Miliband as Home Sec?
    I think it would be more likely to test the Fixed Term Parliament Act, if that were the result a second election would have to follow rapidly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Anyone want to guess what Dan Hodges' blog about this Lord Ashcroft poll is going to say?

    Ed is crap, I was right?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Looks like the Conservatives will again need a coalition with Lib Dems if they want to be in government.

    But will Lib Dem hold enough seats at the next general election to make this possible?

    The Conservative Party needs to do whatever it can to help the Lib Dems get back its deserters to Labour.This will help both Cons and Lib Dems retain some seats against Labour.

    Appoint Nick Clegg as our next European Commissioner and allow the Lib Dems to choose a leader more amenable to the 2010 LD > Lab switchers.
    The Conservative party would never forgive Cameron for appointing an arch europhile as our only representative in the European Commission.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Socrates said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Looks like the Conservatives will again need a coalition with Lib Dems if they want to be in government.

    But will Lib Dem hold enough seats at the next general election to make this possible?

    The Conservative Party needs to do whatever it can to help the Lib Dems get back its deserters to Labour.This will help both Cons and Lib Dems retain some seats against Labour.

    Appoint Nick Clegg as our next European Commissioner and allow the Lib Dems to choose a leader more amenable to the 2010 LD > Lab switchers.
    The Conservative party would never forgive Cameron for appointing an arch europhile as our only representative in the European Commission.
    We're pragmatists, we'll do whatever is necessary to ensure we remain in power after the next general election

    (And no, I wasn't stroking a white cat as I said that)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    anotherDave said:

    Given that UKIP attracts swing voters, and LDs don't, I think it says there's a mistake somewhere.

    I don't think it's a mistake as such. Lord Ashcroft's definition of 'swing voters' is a very disparate mix - "those saying they do not know how they will vote or that they may yet change their minds".

    I'm not sure that's a very useful definition in this context - it will include an odd mixture of quite far-left voters, quite far-right voters, disgruntled Tories, Labour voters unkeen on Ed M, Lab/LD switchers, Don't Knows, None of the Aboves, and a few Lab/Tory swingers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hopi Sen ‏@hopisen 5m

    How to be sensible: Be no more excited/worried by @LordAshcroft poll with Tory lead than you were by @YouGov poll with 7 point Labour lead..

    Spot on I think, everything is distorted by the Euro election effect. However, there is every sign that the Labour vote is very flaky and becoming more so as the good economic news gains traction and the paucity of Labour policies gets ever more stark. Particulalrly foolish to think that this or any other poll rules in or out any election result next year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    liversedge ‏@liversedge 4m

    @JohnRentoul The mean attitudes to the parties Lab 0, Con -7, LD -17, UKIP -19 is interesting.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Hi,

    I've been lurking. The Hodgson squad's been announced if anyone else is doing the same.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Labour on 32%....nah not buying it...Labour / Tories gap down to basically 1-2%, that doesn't seem improbable. 34/36 seems to be where we are now.

    Despite Cameron being hated by lots of UKIP voters, I still don't buy UKIP will get anywhere near 15% in the GE, doesn't mean they will all vote Tory in GE.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    migrationwatch ‏@migrationwatch 27m

    .@CVar_Sil you are now forecasting Rom&Bulg migration in line with our estimates, which you dismissed as 'speculating wildly' last August

    The Migration Observatory's response seems to imply that no one should ever make projections on anything.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lennon said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    And what would the Effective Number of Parties be?
    (for GB)

    ENPe = 4.0
    ENPp = 2.2
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Looks like the Conservatives will again need a coalition with Lib Dems if they want to be in government.

    But will Lib Dem hold enough seats at the next general election to make this possible?

    The Conservative Party needs to do whatever it can to help the Lib Dems get back its deserters to Labour.This will help both Cons and Lib Dems retain some seats against Labour.

    Appoint Nick Clegg as our next European Commissioner and allow the Lib Dems to choose a leader more amenable to the 2010 LD > Lab switchers.
    Cameron can't do that as far more important is keeping his backbenchers onside. Appointing a Europhile to the EU Commission would provoke apoplexy, appointing Clegg would provoke nuclear Armageddon. Not happening.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    ToryJim said:

    Interesting that swing voters rank both Farage and UKIP below Clegg as the least favoured of any on the list. I wonder if that says anything about the solidity of the UKIP vote or if there is a limit at present to the size of its vote.

    I think the real risk for UKIP is that they end up the victim of "anti" tactical voting. Will Thurrock LibDems vote Conservative to stop UKIP, for example? (Thurrock, with its high BNP vote in 2010 to be squeezed, plus the nature of the seat that means the winner may only need 33% to get elected makes it - I agree - an ideal target.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    antifrank said:

    http://images.dpchallenge.com/images_portfolio/35000-39999/37252/800/Copyrighted_Image_Reuse_Prohibited_355060.jpg

    I should have embedded that picture into my tweet.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    RodCrosby said:

    Lennon said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    And what would the Effective Number of Parties be?
    (for GB)

    ENPe = 4.0
    ENPp = 2.2
    Thanks... ENPe above 4 does seem to be a reasonable bound on FPTP
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    It's a great tweet TSE
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    So that's sorted out what every Monday afternoon thread on pb is going to be about for the next year.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Sky News just reporting that a new poll (Ashcroft funded) has Tories ahead of Labour by 2% for GE. Is crossover now here?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Oh Caitlin Moran might tell me off for that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Mind bleach.

    Michael Gove has just talked about the Karma Sutra.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 8m

    Why, since 2009, has @Nigel_Farage & #UKIP grown so fast among these groups? (data from @RevoltonRight) ---> pic.twitter.com/mUiIXjMkZg
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lennon said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Lennon said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ashcroft UNS

    Lab 307
    Con 293
    LD 21
    UKIP 0
    Oths 11
    NI 18

    And what would the Effective Number of Parties be?
    (for GB)

    ENPe = 4.0
    ENPp = 2.2
    Thanks... ENPe above 4 does seem to be a reasonable bound on FPTP
    We could be heading for the nightmare scenario where vote rank
    1,2,3,4 turns into seat rank
    2,1,4,3

    FPTP = random number generator

    Democracy? Pffftt!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    JohnO said:

    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Ashcroft full write-up here - some interesting stuff:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-first-of-my-new-national-polls-the-tories-lead-by-two-points.html

    Richard

    You neglected to quote the best bit directly:

    Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46).

    In memoriam tim.
    I believe he is still among us ....
    I share your faith and am praying for a second coming.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited May 2014
    Btw Labour weighted base @ 213; Con @ 204, Labour 32%, Con 34% - how does that one work.

    Shy Tories in the don't knows/refuse ?

    On the other side, his UKIP figure of 15% looks very correct indeed. (Almost zero adjustment)

This discussion has been closed.