Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov Euros poll has Ukip moving up – Opinium moving down

2

Comments

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited May 2014
    Gove can talk about what he wants - he sometimes seems to be the only person in Britain who can speak English.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    lol - bad Freudian there for those who noticed :)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Hopi Sen ‏@hopisen 5m

    How to be sensible: Be no more excited/worried by @LordAshcroft poll with Tory lead than you were by @YouGov poll with 7 point Labour lead..

    "New poll shows Tory lead" must be good publicity though, and help to start changing the narrative - even if it is just one poll out of many (although we have come close on several occasions recently).

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    JohnO said:

    AveryLP said:

    Richard

    You neglected to quote the best bit directly:

    Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46).

    In memoriam tim.
    I believe he is still among us ....
    I share your faith and am praying for a second coming.

    Can you think of any other examples of previously renowned posters returning to us with a new identity to generally widespread accliam?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Anyone want to guess what Dan Hodges' blog about this Lord Ashcroft poll is going to say?

    Ed is crap, I was right?

    You're as far-seeing as Saruman
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    FTP MaxU: The conferences have loads of supporters of other parties - at the last Tory conference I saw at least a dozen former Labour MPs, and I've seen Tories and LibDems at the Labour one. IIRC, 1/3 of the attendees are not party members but exhibitors, journalists or assorted interested bodies. It's all very friendly - I get teased about "seeing the light" at the other parties but nobody's bothered since we're not there in partisan mode.

    It's worth remembering that relations between MPs generally are usually pretty good - they've got a lot in common with each other. Only direct rivals tend to get wound up.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Btw Labour weighted base @ 213; Con @ 204, Labour 32%, Con 34% - how does that one work.

    Shy Tories in the don't knows/refuse ?

    On the other side, his UKIP figure of 15% looks very correct indeed. (Almost zero adjustment)

    I assume turnout concerns with the people saying they'll vote Labour. Unless that's what you meant by Weighted Base, in which case I don't know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    This cross over is all well and good but we need a Yougov crossover for payouts here !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    "Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46)."

    How does that square up to other recent polling?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I spy with my little eye a new gold standard!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Ed Miliband has the distinction of being the only leader or party to receive a lower rating from swing voters (-10.72), defined as those who say they don’t know how they will vote or who name a party but say they may change their mind, than from the electorate as a whole (-8.83).
  • I spy with my little eye a new gold standard!

    Ashcroft!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Looks like there's a new Gold Standard ;-)

    Knew I'd be too slow to say that... only catching up the thread comments now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Crossover!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:

    This is great news for the YeSNP campaign...

    It could become self-reinforcing.....

    The more likely we are to have a Tory government, the more likely* the Scots are to vote for separation....

    .....The more likely Scottish separation, the more likely a Tory government.....

    *Frequently over-stated - AFAIK it moves the poll by about 2 points - which may of course be enough.......

    So if the Scots want to piss off the Tories in England and stop them getting into power again, they should vote against separation.....
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Re the Miliband is crap figure among Labour voters (-31.23), it's a typo in Lord Ashcroft's summary and is positive in the full tables (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/AshcroftNationalPoll-140512-Full-tables.pdf)

    The total average is correct though (-8.83). Miliband is still less popular than the Conservative party and Osborne.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It could become self-reinforcing.....

    The more likely we are to have a Tory government, the more likely* the Scots are to vote for separation....

    .....The more likely Scottish separation, the more likely a Tory government.....

    *Frequently over-stated - AFAIK it moves the poll by about 2 points - which may of course be enough.......

    So if the Scots want to piss off the Tories in England and stop them getting into power again, they should vote against separation.....

    @ReutersOpinion: Could the Scottish referendum trigger chain reaction leading rest of UK to quit EU? http://t.co/6jPrWC5T9U
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    That article, bad as the behaviour reported is, doesn't live up to the headline.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [So if the Scots want to piss off the Tories in England and stop them getting into power again, they should vote against separation.....]

    Too much RCT! Some of us have to live in Scotland y'know.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...

    Still my gold standard until tonight's ICM at least..
  • Spectator Coffee House reporting crossover just after posting this:

    Mr S attended the international rugby union 7s tournament at Twickenham on Saturday, which was graced by some 76,000 people – mostly yuppies on the razzle by the look of things.

    I regret to report that this crowd of genteel, if beery, English people loudly and roundly booed the Scottish team. The Scots ran in several tries against the hapless Portuguese, and each score was met with open resentment, while every Scottish handling error, missed tackle or infringement was cheered with glee. The noise was shattering, the atmosphere hostile. No other team received a barracking (as is right: booing is abhorrent). Even the Australians, who are the default villains at Twickenham, were given a measure of respect. When will this end, if not this September?


    So maybe there is a direct link between Sindy and Tory GE polling! Maybe Middle England is now fed up hearing the whining and encourages a YES.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Millsy said:

    Re the Miliband is crap figure among Labour voters (-31.23), it's a typo in Lord Ashcroft's summary and is positive in the full tables (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/AshcroftNationalPoll-140512-Full-tables.pdf)

    Aww, spoil-sport!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    The mask slipping on the political left once again.

    It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...]

    +10
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    That article, bad as the behaviour reported is, doesn't live up to the headline.
    Yep, there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the person who "threatened" them with disciplinary behaviour had any authority to do so. In fact, it sounds like standard student behaviour to me.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Lord Ashcroft certainly knows how to ‘launch’ a new weekly poll. – damn the tory lickspittle..!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Scrapheap

    Fair point, but it still counts as crossover I think on the very generous inferred terms on offer on PB, so I guess Rod Crosby gets away with it, even if no other polls confirm it and even if Labour "cross back".

    Perhaps, given the bizarre weighting, Rod devised the methodology? ;-)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    The mask slipping on the political left once again.

    It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
    Good point, other than the fact that the most recent report about an attempt to stifle freedom of speech seems to involve a UKIP councillor and Cambridgeshire Police http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    The mask slipping on the political left once again.

    It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
    More a case of students being idiots and an article that seems to sensationalise very thin gruel.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    David Cameron and Boris Johnson pulled over their car this morning after noticing a woman who had collapsed on the street in Harrow, according to the London Ambulance Service.

    Paramedic Dominic Stark, who attended the scene, said: “I was told the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson had pulled over when they noticed a woman collapsed on the street.

    "When I arrived a few minutes later, I found the PM holding the woman’s hand. I took over caring for the patient and they left a few minutes later.”

    http://www.itv.com/news/2014-05-12/david-cameron-and-boris-johnson-pull-over-car-to-go-to-aid-of-collapsed-woman/
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    David Cameron and Boris Johnson pulled over their car this morning after noticing a woman who had collapsed on the street in Harrow, according to the London Ambulance Service.

    Paramedic Dominic Stark, who attended the scene, said: “I was told the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson had pulled over when they noticed a woman collapsed on the street.

    "When I arrived a few minutes later, I found the PM holding the woman’s hand. I took over caring for the patient and they left a few minutes later.”

    http://www.itv.com/news/2014-05-12/david-cameron-and-boris-johnson-pull-over-car-to-go-to-aid-of-collapsed-woman/

    SuperCam?!?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 9m

    Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter

    The mask slipping on the political left once again.

    It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
    Good point, other than the fact that the most recent report about an attempt to stifle freedom of speech seems to involve a UKIP councillor and Cambridgeshire Police http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/police-ask-blogger-remove-legitimate-tweet-ukip
    The legal encouragement for the Police to intervene in tweets didn't come from UKIP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Where's 'Pouter gone though ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Looks like the pollster wasn't ICM

    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 4s

    @LordAshcroft @JohnRentoul We on the BPC would welcome Lord A join us. Just to confirm, regrettably ICM not one of those bpc members used,
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)

    Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Millsy said:

    Re the Miliband is crap figure among Labour voters (-31.23), it's a typo in Lord Ashcroft's summary and is positive in the full tables (http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/AshcroftNationalPoll-140512-Full-tables.pdf)

    The total average is correct though (-8.83). Miliband is still less popular than the Conservative party and Osborne.

    What is truly telling is that we (nearly) all believed it.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Neil said:

    So having ridiculed all those who got a crossover prediction wrong by mere months Compouter faces the ignomy of having his / her prediction out by at least a year. Tragic.

    I was exactly a month out; the Lords Test on 12th June was my prediction on here.


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Glad I topped up my Con most seat bet this morning.

    Only worry is this lead is too fast too soon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Anglo-Scottish divide:

    England/Scotland (Mean)

    Miliband: -9 / +1
    Labour: -1 / +12
    Balls: -13 / -10

    Cameron: -1 / -16
    Conservative: -6 / -21
    Osborne: -5 / -15

    Clegg: -18 / -27
    Lib Dem: -15 / -17

    Farage: -18 / -31
    UKIP: -16 / -36

    Scotland is significantly more positive for Labour than any other region, and the only area to be positive for Miliband......
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)

    Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
    The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...

    I'm inclined to agree - a first poll can't be a 'cross-over'.

    That said, its encouraging for Con, and I doubt it will dent Ed's intellectual self confidence....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    After Labour's much-derided assault on the Lib Dems last week, one does not have to look far to find despondency within the party's ranks. "I believed them when they said there wasn't a 35 per cent strategy," one MP tells me. "Now I'm convinced there is"

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/labour-tensions-over-election-strategy-are-growing
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's 'Pouter gone though ?

    Fled, dressed as a woman, then collapsed on a Harrow street.

    Responded to a helping hand but now too star-struck to post.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    Aha. Is Milord not a BPC pollster?

    In which case...............

    I'll let you be the arbiter of what constitutes crossover...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)

    Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
    The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
    I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    CON tightening in Hammersmith and Fulham. New prices:

    Ladbrokes - Hammersmith & Fulham Council

    CON Control 4/9 (from 1/2)
    LAB Control 9/4
    NOC 10/1
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    UKIP tightening in Newark. They have now overtaken LAB for 2nd in the betting. New best prices:

    Con 8/13 (various)
    UKIP 7/2 (various) (from 11/2 this morning)
    Lab 4/1 (Hills)
    LD 250/1 (various)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)

    Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
    The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
    I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
    It's difficult to say but I think UKIP do genuinely want a referendum on the EU.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...

    I'm inclined to agree - a first poll can't be a 'cross-over'.
    Ditto, - nor I'd imagine, would the Ashcroft poll feature in the bets made with the bookies.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are contesting 19 out of 30 wards in Liverpool, whereas in the 2010 local elections they didn't contest any. The same is true of a lot of metropolitan councils.

    I think this could have a significant effect on the Labour vote in the Euro elections. Anyone agree?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHR0LWkxX1E5d0Fqd0hDd0Vid0RHUkE&type=view&gid=0&f=true&sortcolid=-1&sortasc=true&rowsperpage=1189
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    BobaFett said:

    @TSE

    Aha. Is Milord not a BPC pollster?

    In which case...............

    I'll let you be the arbiter of what constitutes crossover...

    He is not personally, but he uses pollsters that are BPC, and he abides by all the BPC rules.

    If you're going to disregard this poll, you might as well ignore his past and future marginals polls.

    Mike's happy to use his polling, if it good enough for Mike Smithson, then it good enough for us PB plebs.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)

    Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
    The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
    I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
    I'm not sure what your point is.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU?

    Yes, but UKIP doesn't. We've been through all this.

    In any case, you can't create a coalition on just one policy item. Since the UKIP leader has stated their previous manifesto was 'drivel', it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in their platform as a whole, does it?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Socrates said:



    The legal encouragement for the Police to intervene in tweets didn't come from UKIP.

    True. But if you believe in freedom of speech, you wouldn't even think of reporting a tweet.

    Still not sure what the police were doing giving him "words of advice" when he has not committed any offence. I can see it would be reasonable if he was sailing on the windy side of the law, or behaving in a reckless manner that might end up with a criminal offence - but the police don't seem to be saying this is why they did it.

    Apparently it is against the Representation of the People Act 1983 to impugn the character of candidates, but again there seems to be no suggestion that the police went round to advise him about this aspect of the law.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Neil said:

    Socrates said:

    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 3m

    A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)

    Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
    The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
    I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
    It's difficult to say but I think UKIP do genuinely want a referendum on the EU.
    In fairness, I think that they genuinely want out of the EU, and currently see a referendum as the best way of achieving that. If they got a Parliamentary majority I would expect them to not need a referendum and just exit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    GIN1138 said:

    So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)

    I think it is populus.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Hooray; in today’s post we had our fist election leaflet. Fortunately we’re not postal voters.

    Leaflet was from the Tories, but only addressed to me, nothing for Mrs Cole.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    Fair enough. Crossover we have.

    Next up - predict Crossback. It's all about Crossback now.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    William Hill - European Parliament election - Scotland - Most Votes?

    SNP 1/4
    Lab 11/4
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
    LD 200/1
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Carlotta @Simon

    Scenes you rarely see:

    Labourite calls it crossover. Two Tories refuse to accept it.

    PB is like a game of village cricket. Fair play all round.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BobaFett said:

    @TSE

    Fair enough. Crossover we have.

    Next up - predict Crossback. It's all about Crossback now.

    I reckon we'll get it today Mr Bobajob !
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    Ladbrokes - European Parliament election - Scotland

    Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
    Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1

    UKIP to win a seat 2/1
    UKIP to win 0 seats 1/3

    Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
    Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10

    SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
    Labour to win more votes than SNP 9/4
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    GIN1138 said:

    So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)

    The Document title is: OmVote-12thMay14 - BPC and the author RNye.....if that gives anyone any clues.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    We have crossover with an Ashcroft poll:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Con 34%
    Lab 32%
    UKIP 15%
    LD 9%
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    edited May 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)

    There's plenty of small market research companies around. While most work online these days, a friend who is a director of such a company says they will still do phone surveys on request. They also have arrangements to share each others' panels, although that is mainly to ensure market coverage.

    [edited to add: Theory torpedoed by Carlotta and TSE]

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    GIN1138 said:

    So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)

    The Document title is: OmVote-12thMay14 - BPC and the author RNye.....if that gives anyone any clues.....
    Rick Nye is a head honcho of Populus

    http://www.populus.co.uk/member/Rick-Nye-2/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    @THescreamingEagles Think this poll is too far too fast for the Votes/Seats switch bet ?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Well the Mail are now reporting the poll, as well as providing some interesting pics of the Dave and Boris show.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2626319/Tories-AHEAD-Labour-opinion-poll-time-two-years-Cameron-Boris-goes-tour.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    GIN1138 said:

    So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)

    The Document title is: OmVote-12thMay14 - BPC and the author RNye.....if that gives anyone any clues.....
    Rick Nye is a head honcho of Populus

    http://www.populus.co.uk/member/Rick-Nye-2/
    Compare the formats:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_12-05-2014_BPC.pdf

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/AshcroftNationalPoll-140512-Full-tables.pdf

    I'd say they were a match.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pulpstar said:

    @THescreamingEagles Think this poll is too far too fast for the Votes/Seats switch bet ?

    Maybe.

    If we see another non Ashcroft poll with the Tories ahead before the Euros, then yes.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    A bullish crossback forecast from @Pulpstar.

    Officially the first PBer to forecast crossback.

    Squeaky bum time for him!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 29s

    First a Tory poll lead, then Cameron and Boris help an ill woman by the side of the road. One of those days for Labour…
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU?

    Yes, but UKIP doesn't. We've been through all this.

    In any case, you can't create a coalition on just one policy item. Since the UKIP leader has stated their previous manifesto was 'drivel', it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in their platform as a whole, does it?
    What does the Tory leader think of top-down reorganization of the NHS and no increase in VAT, out of interest?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Best prices - Next UK GE - Most Seats?

    Lab 8/11 (Betfair)
    Con 23/17 (Unibet)
    UKIP 125/1 (Hills)
    LD 450/1 (Betfair)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Looking at the Ashcroft poll, my rough estimation.

    Con on 34, UKIP 15, LD 9 is what we see roughly with other polls, so no that out of line.

    The Lab 32 figure is the one that is out of kilter.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    For all you crossover fans:

    CON MAJ = 7/2 at Unibet
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    One of the interesting aspects of this poll is the light it may throw on Ashcroft's comments to Dan Hodges on the results of his marginals polling...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    From VoteUK discussion forum:

    2 hours ago
    Quote
    Post by strinity on 2 hours ago
    London borough declarations:

    Overnight

    Haringey, Wandsworth, Enfield, Sutton, Merton, Hammersmith & Fulham, Bexley

    Friday AM:

    Kingston, Redbridge, Waltham Forest, Richmond, Brent, Croydon

    Friday early PM:

    Westminster, Barking & Dagenham, Harrow, Hillingdon, Lambeth, Bromley, Islington, Greenwich, Brent

    Friday late PM:

    Havering, Ealing, Hackney, Newham, Hounslow, Camden, Southwark, Kensington & Chelsea, Tower Hamlets

    Saturday AM:

    Lewisham
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited May 2014
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.

    Similar situation in Scotland: SLab membership is inactive and unmotivated. The SNP membership is super-motivated.

    However, the difference in Scotland is that the SNP have approx double the membership of SLab.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Comment on the LabourList thread for the Ashcroft poll

    Doug Smith • 21 minutes ago
    Ask not for whom the bell tolls...

    http://labourlist.org/2014/05/tories-take-first-poll-lead-in-over-two-years/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Looking at the Ashcroft poll, my rough estimation.

    Con on 34, UKIP 15, LD 9 is what we see roughly with other polls, so no that out of line.

    The Lab 32 figure is the one that is out of kilter.

    Comparing the Lab sub-samples vs today's Populus, they are well down in the Midlands in Ashcroft's poll (25 vs 34) yet up in Scotland (42 vs 28)......so I guess we are joining the MOE Angels on the head of a pin.....

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.

    Similar situation in Scotland: SLab membership is inactive and unmotivated. The SNP membership is super-motivated.

    However, the difference in Scotland is that the SNP have approx double the membership of SLab.
    Another difference is that all SNP members are aware of their SNP membership, SLAB members not so much. Perhaps if someone told them they'd be out pounding pavements...
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @TSE

    We know from Populus that Labour is the party of the working man - a higher proportion of working voters than any other party.

    The Labour voters were all out working when Milord rang up.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I predict a 5 point Labour lead with ICM tonight.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Interesting fact #99

    If the polls move as they did 2009-10 between now and the election, the result will be...

    Con 39.8%
    Lab 32.9%
    LD 13.7%
    UKIP 6.9% (approx)

    Con maj 2 !
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2014
    Socrates said:

    What does the Tory leader think of top-down reorganization of the NHS and no increase in VAT, out of interest?

    Dunno, because the manifesto promised to put GPs in charge of holding patients' budgets and commissioning local health services, a pledge which has been implemented, and didn't promise no increase in VAT.

    Actually, the manifesto makes an interesting read now. What is quite remarkable is how much of it has been implemented, despite the constraints of coalition.

    It bodes well for the EU renegotiation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Worst possible time for Labour for crossover to happen. Too late to change the leadership team.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:

    Worst possible time for Labour for crossover to happen. Too late to change the leadership team.

    .. but not too late to agonise about it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    BobaFett said:

    @TSE

    Fair enough. Crossover we have.

    Next up - predict Crossback. It's all about Crossback now.

    The next poll will have a (small) Labour lead, IMHO. It's in the nature of the beast. It will take some time for the average of (say) the last five polls, or even for three polls in a row, to show a Conservative lead.

    And there is always the possibility that the trend we have seen for the last 6-12 months of a decreasing Labour lead will be reversed, and they start soaring into the sky once more. I doubt it'll happen under squirrelEd, though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What came next was a masterclass in how to destroy an opposition, regardless of how valid the questions being levelled by Hunt and co were. Every time a Labour MP rose to ask a question or complain about the way their local authority schools were being treated relative to local free schools, Gove launched into a paen that either highlighted the runaway success of a local free school, that member’s support for local free schools, or a local campaign from parents or football clubs to set up a free school. Most of the hour passed in this way, with Gove essentially press releasing his programme’s achievements, and dodging all the difficult questions the Labour MPs levelled at him.
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/gove-uses-urgent-question-on-free-schools-to-trumpet-his-achievements/
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [So that's sorted out what every Monday afternoon thread on pb is going to be about for the next year.]

    Sorry to go back in the thread a bit. But doesn't guido utilise interns? Couldn't team ogh maybe get someone to do the SF Friday slot? I'm being pretty serious - the timing was very good from a readers point of view.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Worst possible time for Labour for crossover to happen. Too late to change the leadership team.

    .. but not too late to agonise about it.
    Precisely.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting fact #99

    If the polls move as they did 2009-10 between now and the election, the result will be...

    Con 39.8%
    Lab 32.9%
    LD 13.7%
    UKIP 6.9% (approx)

    Con maj 2 !

    A year to get boundary reform through Parliament then back to the polls to try and get the Tories a 40 seat majority? ;)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Just a reminder, this is but one poll.

    Keep calm you don't want to be appear as arrogant and complacent as Hannibal before the Battle of Zama.
This discussion has been closed.