How to be sensible: Be no more excited/worried by @LordAshcroft poll with Tory lead than you were by @YouGov poll with 7 point Labour lead..
"New poll shows Tory lead" must be good publicity though, and help to start changing the narrative - even if it is just one poll out of many (although we have come close on several occasions recently).
Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46).
In memoriam tim.
I believe he is still among us ....
I share your faith and am praying for a second coming.
Can you think of any other examples of previously renowned posters returning to us with a new identity to generally widespread accliam?
FTP MaxU: The conferences have loads of supporters of other parties - at the last Tory conference I saw at least a dozen former Labour MPs, and I've seen Tories and LibDems at the Labour one. IIRC, 1/3 of the attendees are not party members but exhibitors, journalists or assorted interested bodies. It's all very friendly - I get teased about "seeing the light" at the other parties but nobody's bothered since we're not there in partisan mode.
It's worth remembering that relations between MPs generally are usually pretty good - they've got a lot in common with each other. Only direct rivals tend to get wound up.
"Interestingly for proponents of the theory that the Tories have a particular problem with female voters – which my previous analysis suggests is mistaken – women gave Cameron slightly higher marks (-3.33 on a scale from -100 to +100) than he received from men (-4.46)."
Ed Miliband has the distinction of being the only leader or party to receive a lower rating from swing voters (-10.72), defined as those who say they don’t know how they will vote or who name a party but say they may change their mind, than from the electorate as a whole (-8.83).
On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...
Still my gold standard until tonight's ICM at least..
Spectator Coffee House reporting crossover just after posting this:
Mr S attended the international rugby union 7s tournament at Twickenham on Saturday, which was graced by some 76,000 people – mostly yuppies on the razzle by the look of things.
I regret to report that this crowd of genteel, if beery, English people loudly and roundly booed the Scottish team. The Scots ran in several tries against the hapless Portuguese, and each score was met with open resentment, while every Scottish handling error, missed tackle or infringement was cheered with glee. The noise was shattering, the atmosphere hostile. No other team received a barracking (as is right: booing is abhorrent). Even the Australians, who are the default villains at Twickenham, were given a measure of respect. When will this end, if not this September?
So maybe there is a direct link between Sindy and Tory GE polling! Maybe Middle England is now fed up hearing the whining and encourages a YES.
The mask slipping on the political left once again.
It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
[On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...]
That article, bad as the behaviour reported is, doesn't live up to the headline.
Yep, there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the person who "threatened" them with disciplinary behaviour had any authority to do so. In fact, it sounds like standard student behaviour to me.
Fair point, but it still counts as crossover I think on the very generous inferred terms on offer on PB, so I guess Rod Crosby gets away with it, even if no other polls confirm it and even if Labour "cross back".
Perhaps, given the bizarre weighting, Rod devised the methodology? ;-)
The mask slipping on the political left once again.
It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
The mask slipping on the political left once again.
It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
More a case of students being idiots and an article that seems to sensationalise very thin gruel.
David Cameron and Boris Johnson pulled over their car this morning after noticing a woman who had collapsed on the street in Harrow, according to the London Ambulance Service.
Paramedic Dominic Stark, who attended the scene, said: “I was told the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson had pulled over when they noticed a woman collapsed on the street.
"When I arrived a few minutes later, I found the PM holding the woman’s hand. I took over caring for the patient and they left a few minutes later.”
David Cameron and Boris Johnson pulled over their car this morning after noticing a woman who had collapsed on the street in Harrow, according to the London Ambulance Service.
Paramedic Dominic Stark, who attended the scene, said: “I was told the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson had pulled over when they noticed a woman collapsed on the street.
"When I arrived a few minutes later, I found the PM holding the woman’s hand. I took over caring for the patient and they left a few minutes later.”
The mask slipping on the political left once again.
It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
So having ridiculed all those who got a crossover prediction wrong by mere months Compouter faces the ignomy of having his / her prediction out by at least a year. Tragic.
I was exactly a month out; the Lords Test on 12th June was my prediction on here.
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...
I'm inclined to agree - a first poll can't be a 'cross-over'.
That said, its encouraging for Con, and I doubt it will dent Ed's intellectual self confidence....
After Labour's much-derided assault on the Lib Dems last week, one does not have to look far to find despondency within the party's ranks. "I believed them when they said there wasn't a 35 per cent strategy," one MP tells me. "Now I'm convinced there is"
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
It's difficult to say but I think UKIP do genuinely want a referendum on the EU.
On a point of order for the Ashcroft poll - how can it be cross over if this is the first of his series of weekly polls.... none before with Labour in the lead...
I'm inclined to agree - a first poll can't be a 'cross-over'.
Ditto, - nor I'd imagine, would the Ashcroft poll feature in the bets made with the bookies.
UKIP are contesting 19 out of 30 wards in Liverpool, whereas in the 2010 local elections they didn't contest any. The same is true of a lot of metropolitan councils.
I think this could have a significant effect on the Labour vote in the Euro elections. Anyone agree?
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
Yes, but UKIP doesn't. We've been through all this.
In any case, you can't create a coalition on just one policy item. Since the UKIP leader has stated their previous manifesto was 'drivel', it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in their platform as a whole, does it?
The legal encouragement for the Police to intervene in tweets didn't come from UKIP.
True. But if you believe in freedom of speech, you wouldn't even think of reporting a tweet.
Still not sure what the police were doing giving him "words of advice" when he has not committed any offence. I can see it would be reasonable if he was sailing on the windy side of the law, or behaving in a reckless manner that might end up with a criminal offence - but the police don't seem to be saying this is why they did it.
Apparently it is against the Representation of the People Act 1983 to impugn the character of candidates, but again there seems to be no suggestion that the police went round to advise him about this aspect of the law.
So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
Why doesn't the Coalition quickly legislate on one of the better forms of PR? The Lib Dems would survive and achieve a longstanding goal, and the Tories could lead a Tory-UKIP coalition after 2015?
The vast bulk of the active Conservative Party would never countenance a coalition with UKIP
I thought they wanted a referendum on the EU? Surely that's not just political posturing?
It's difficult to say but I think UKIP do genuinely want a referendum on the EU.
In fairness, I think that they genuinely want out of the EU, and currently see a referendum as the best way of achieving that. If they got a Parliamentary majority I would expect them to not need a referendum and just exit.
So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
The Document title is: OmVote-12thMay14 - BPC and the author RNye.....if that gives anyone any clues.....
So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
There's plenty of small market research companies around. While most work online these days, a friend who is a director of such a company says they will still do phone surveys on request. They also have arrangements to share each others' panels, although that is mainly to ensure market coverage.
[edited to add: Theory torpedoed by Carlotta and TSE]
So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
The Document title is: OmVote-12thMay14 - BPC and the author RNye.....if that gives anyone any clues.....
So now we know ICM isn't working for His Lordship that really leaves MORI, Populus or ComRes? (Assuming it's not an unusual pollster like Harris or Gallup?)
The Document title is: OmVote-12thMay14 - BPC and the author RNye.....if that gives anyone any clues.....
UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.
Yes, but UKIP doesn't. We've been through all this.
In any case, you can't create a coalition on just one policy item. Since the UKIP leader has stated their previous manifesto was 'drivel', it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in their platform as a whole, does it?
What does the Tory leader think of top-down reorganization of the NHS and no increase in VAT, out of interest?
UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.
Similar situation in Scotland: SLab membership is inactive and unmotivated. The SNP membership is super-motivated.
However, the difference in Scotland is that the SNP have approx double the membership of SLab.
Looking at the Ashcroft poll, my rough estimation.
Con on 34, UKIP 15, LD 9 is what we see roughly with other polls, so no that out of line.
The Lab 32 figure is the one that is out of kilter.
Comparing the Lab sub-samples vs today's Populus, they are well down in the Midlands in Ashcroft's poll (25 vs 34) yet up in Scotland (42 vs 28)......so I guess we are joining the MOE Angels on the head of a pin.....
UKIP have about a third of the number of members the Tories do, but the point is that a lot of those Tory members will be people who signed up in about 1955 and have been on automatic renewal ever since: in other words, they’re not a active members. UKIP’s members, on the other hand, have mostly joined up in recent months and years. And obviously active members are worth a lot more than inactive ones.
Similar situation in Scotland: SLab membership is inactive and unmotivated. The SNP membership is super-motivated.
However, the difference in Scotland is that the SNP have approx double the membership of SLab.
Another difference is that all SNP members are aware of their SNP membership, SLAB members not so much. Perhaps if someone told them they'd be out pounding pavements...
What does the Tory leader think of top-down reorganization of the NHS and no increase in VAT, out of interest?
Dunno, because the manifesto promised to put GPs in charge of holding patients' budgets and commissioning local health services, a pledge which has been implemented, and didn't promise no increase in VAT.
Actually, the manifesto makes an interesting read now. What is quite remarkable is how much of it has been implemented, despite the constraints of coalition.
Next up - predict Crossback. It's all about Crossback now.
The next poll will have a (small) Labour lead, IMHO. It's in the nature of the beast. It will take some time for the average of (say) the last five polls, or even for three polls in a row, to show a Conservative lead.
And there is always the possibility that the trend we have seen for the last 6-12 months of a decreasing Labour lead will be reversed, and they start soaring into the sky once more. I doubt it'll happen under squirrelEd, though.
What came next was a masterclass in how to destroy an opposition, regardless of how valid the questions being levelled by Hunt and co were. Every time a Labour MP rose to ask a question or complain about the way their local authority schools were being treated relative to local free schools, Gove launched into a paen that either highlighted the runaway success of a local free school, that member’s support for local free schools, or a local campaign from parents or football clubs to set up a free school. Most of the hour passed in this way, with Gove essentially press releasing his programme’s achievements, and dodging all the difficult questions the Labour MPs levelled at him.
[So that's sorted out what every Monday afternoon thread on pb is going to be about for the next year.]
Sorry to go back in the thread a bit. But doesn't guido utilise interns? Couldn't team ogh maybe get someone to do the SF Friday slot? I'm being pretty serious - the timing was very good from a readers point of view.
Comments
It's worth remembering that relations between MPs generally are usually pretty good - they've got a lot in common with each other. Only direct rivals tend to get wound up.
How does that square up to other recent polling?
Students abused and threatened with University disciplinary action for having a UKIP sign outside their house http://birmingham.tab.co.uk/2014/05/12/ukip-u-cant/#.U3Dc6b0QEY0.twitter …
A striking stat for CCHQ. Some 58% of paid-up Conservative members openly admit they are open to voting #UKIP (Bale & Webb 2014)
The more likely we are to have a Tory government, the more likely* the Scots are to vote for separation....
.....The more likely Scottish separation, the more likely a Tory government.....
*Frequently over-stated - AFAIK it moves the poll by about 2 points - which may of course be enough.......
So if the Scots want to piss off the Tories in England and stop them getting into power again, they should vote against separation.....
The total average is correct though (-8.83). Miliband is still less popular than the Conservative party and Osborne.
Too much RCT! Some of us have to live in Scotland y'know.
Still my gold standard until tonight's ICM at least..
Mr S attended the international rugby union 7s tournament at Twickenham on Saturday, which was graced by some 76,000 people – mostly yuppies on the razzle by the look of things.
I regret to report that this crowd of genteel, if beery, English people loudly and roundly booed the Scottish team. The Scots ran in several tries against the hapless Portuguese, and each score was met with open resentment, while every Scottish handling error, missed tackle or infringement was cheered with glee. The noise was shattering, the atmosphere hostile. No other team received a barracking (as is right: booing is abhorrent). Even the Australians, who are the default villains at Twickenham, were given a measure of respect. When will this end, if not this September?
So maybe there is a direct link between Sindy and Tory GE polling! Maybe Middle England is now fed up hearing the whining and encourages a YES.
It's also clear by their gradual elimination of free speech. First it's racist speech. Then it's "incitement to religious hatred". Given how many of them think euroscepticism is a form of bigotry, I bet they'd like to ban that one day too.
+10
Fair point, but it still counts as crossover I think on the very generous inferred terms on offer on PB, so I guess Rod Crosby gets away with it, even if no other polls confirm it and even if Labour "cross back".
Perhaps, given the bizarre weighting, Rod devised the methodology? ;-)
Paramedic Dominic Stark, who attended the scene, said: “I was told the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson had pulled over when they noticed a woman collapsed on the street.
"When I arrived a few minutes later, I found the PM holding the woman’s hand. I took over caring for the patient and they left a few minutes later.”
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-05-12/david-cameron-and-boris-johnson-pull-over-car-to-go-to-aid-of-collapsed-woman/
Martin Boon @martinboon 4s
@LordAshcroft @JohnRentoul We on the BPC would welcome Lord A join us. Just to confirm, regrettably ICM not one of those bpc members used,
Only worry is this lead is too fast too soon.
England/Scotland (Mean)
Miliband: -9 / +1
Labour: -1 / +12
Balls: -13 / -10
Cameron: -1 / -16
Conservative: -6 / -21
Osborne: -5 / -15
Clegg: -18 / -27
Lib Dem: -15 / -17
Farage: -18 / -31
UKIP: -16 / -36
Scotland is significantly more positive for Labour than any other region, and the only area to be positive for Miliband......
That said, its encouraging for Con, and I doubt it will dent Ed's intellectual self confidence....
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/labour-tensions-over-election-strategy-are-growing
Responded to a helping hand but now too star-struck to post.
Aha. Is Milord not a BPC pollster?
In which case...............
I'll let you be the arbiter of what constitutes crossover...
Ladbrokes - Hammersmith & Fulham Council
CON Control 4/9 (from 1/2)
LAB Control 9/4
NOC 10/1
Con 8/13 (various)
UKIP 7/2 (various) (from 11/2 this morning)
Lab 4/1 (Hills)
LD 250/1 (various)
I think this could have a significant effect on the Labour vote in the Euro elections. Anyone agree?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHR0LWkxX1E5d0Fqd0hDd0Vid0RHUkE&type=view&gid=0&f=true&sortcolid=-1&sortasc=true&rowsperpage=1189
If you're going to disregard this poll, you might as well ignore his past and future marginals polls.
Mike's happy to use his polling, if it good enough for Mike Smithson, then it good enough for us PB plebs.
In any case, you can't create a coalition on just one policy item. Since the UKIP leader has stated their previous manifesto was 'drivel', it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in their platform as a whole, does it?
Still not sure what the police were doing giving him "words of advice" when he has not committed any offence. I can see it would be reasonable if he was sailing on the windy side of the law, or behaving in a reckless manner that might end up with a criminal offence - but the police don't seem to be saying this is why they did it.
Apparently it is against the Representation of the People Act 1983 to impugn the character of candidates, but again there seems to be no suggestion that the police went round to advise him about this aspect of the law.
Leaflet was from the Tories, but only addressed to me, nothing for Mrs Cole.
Fair enough. Crossover we have.
Next up - predict Crossback. It's all about Crossback now.
SNP 1/4
Lab 11/4
UKIP 100/1
Con 100/1
LD 200/1
Scenes you rarely see:
Labourite calls it crossover. Two Tories refuse to accept it.
PB is like a game of village cricket. Fair play all round.
Conservatives to win a seat 1/4
Conservatives to win 0 seats 3/1
UKIP to win a seat 2/1
UKIP to win 0 seats 1/3
Lib Dems to win a seat 5/1
Lib Dems to win 0 seats 1/10
SNP to win more votes than Labour 1/3
Labour to win more votes than SNP 9/4
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Con 34%
Lab 32%
UKIP 15%
LD 9%
[edited to add: Theory torpedoed by Carlotta and TSE]
http://www.populus.co.uk/member/Rick-Nye-2/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2626319/Tories-AHEAD-Labour-opinion-poll-time-two-years-Cameron-Boris-goes-tour.html
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/OmOnline_Vote_12-05-2014_BPC.pdf
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/AshcroftNationalPoll-140512-Full-tables.pdf
I'd say they were a match.....
If we see another non Ashcroft poll with the Tories ahead before the Euros, then yes.
Officially the first PBer to forecast crossback.
Squeaky bum time for him!
First a Tory poll lead, then Cameron and Boris help an ill woman by the side of the road. One of those days for Labour…
Lab 8/11 (Betfair)
Con 23/17 (Unibet)
UKIP 125/1 (Hills)
LD 450/1 (Betfair)
Con on 34, UKIP 15, LD 9 is what we see roughly with other polls, so no that out of line.
The Lab 32 figure is the one that is out of kilter.
CON MAJ = 7/2 at Unibet
2 hours ago
Quote
Post by strinity on 2 hours ago
London borough declarations:
Overnight
Haringey, Wandsworth, Enfield, Sutton, Merton, Hammersmith & Fulham, Bexley
Friday AM:
Kingston, Redbridge, Waltham Forest, Richmond, Brent, Croydon
Friday early PM:
Westminster, Barking & Dagenham, Harrow, Hillingdon, Lambeth, Bromley, Islington, Greenwich, Brent
Friday late PM:
Havering, Ealing, Hackney, Newham, Hounslow, Camden, Southwark, Kensington & Chelsea, Tower Hamlets
Saturday AM:
Lewisham
However, the difference in Scotland is that the SNP have approx double the membership of SLab.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/tottenham/next-permanent-manager
Doug Smith • 21 minutes ago
Ask not for whom the bell tolls...
http://labourlist.org/2014/05/tories-take-first-poll-lead-in-over-two-years/
We know from Populus that Labour is the party of the working man - a higher proportion of working voters than any other party.
The Labour voters were all out working when Milord rang up.
If the polls move as they did 2009-10 between now and the election, the result will be...
Con 39.8%
Lab 32.9%
LD 13.7%
UKIP 6.9% (approx)
Con maj 2 !
Actually, the manifesto makes an interesting read now. What is quite remarkable is how much of it has been implemented, despite the constraints of coalition.
It bodes well for the EU renegotiation.
And there is always the possibility that the trend we have seen for the last 6-12 months of a decreasing Labour lead will be reversed, and they start soaring into the sky once more. I doubt it'll happen under squirrelEd, though.
Sorry to go back in the thread a bit. But doesn't guido utilise interns? Couldn't team ogh maybe get someone to do the SF Friday slot? I'm being pretty serious - the timing was very good from a readers point of view.
Keep calm you don't want to be appear as arrogant and complacent as Hannibal before the Battle of Zama.