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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN fo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One of today’s TWO YouGov polls has the LDs trailing GRN for the Euros: The other has them comfortably ahead
For GE2015 the Sun on Sunday poll has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 10, Ukip 15. The S Times Westminster voting intentions poll from YouGov has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP.
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The party comes first when voters are asked which party has the best policies, on immigration and the EU.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
The winning party received just 4.2 million votes (27.7%) in 2009, equivalent to half the population of London.
ST: GE: 33/365/9/15
LD 2010 split: Cons:10; LAB:29; LD: 35; UKIP 15; Green: 8
Also UKIP supported by al age groups from 12%-17%
SUN GE: 33/36/10/15
LD 2010 split: Cons: 10; LAB: 32; LD:37; UKIP: 16; Green:3
UKIP support across the ages from 5% to 21%
R&T, prediction of projected national share before 2013 local elections:
LAB 38%
CON 29%
LD 16%
UKIP 11%
R&T, projected national share after the votes had been counted at 2013 local elections:
LAB 29%
CON 26%
UKIP 22%
LD 13%
Difference:
Lab -9%
Con -3%
LD -3%
UKIP +11%
Their prediction this year is as follows:
LAB 33%
CON 30%
UKIP 16%
LD 14%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7349
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/05/exactly-two-years-to-the-day-after-the-av-referendum-this-is-how-rallings-and-thrasher-project-ge2015/
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/29/the-2014-rallings-and-thrasher-local-elections-forecasts/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27273672
http://www.w-t-w.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Merkel-Diamond.jpg
Yes, nationalisation has never been done before, and is really innovative. Sheesh.
He hasn't even tried to look at what the problems are, and think of other possible solutions.
An Ed Miliband governent would be truly dangerous to the country. Populist policies that are designed to appeal, not to fix problems.
Farage would make a better PM than (net Farage):
Cameron: -40
Miliband: -19
UKIP candidates vs other parties' - racists:
More likely: 58
Less likely: 23
Same: 29
UKIP MEPs vs other parties - fiddled expenses:
More likely: 16
Less likely: 10
Same: 62
Motivation for publicity around UKIP candidates' views:
Genuine concern & valid: 27
Party political & valid: 30
Party political & exaggerated: 25
Lies: 4
Right direction: 56
Wrong Direction: 29
The Private rented sector (net +37) was not as enthusiastic as Local Authority (+58) or Housing Association (+68) tenants - but this group is also a lot less pro-Labour (+2 vs Con) than either (+42 and +31 respectively).
FPT: Congrats, Mr. Barber.
And welcome to pb.com Mr./Miss Sarissa. Delightful name.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8655697.stm
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/is-adams-history.html
YouGov ST:
Northern Ireland historical crimes:
Follow the evidence & prosecute: 68
Leave in the past & move on: 15
Adams arrest political:
Probably: 27
Probably Not: 39
May 4th 1979: Election victory for Margaret Thatcher
The Conservative Party wins the general election making Margaret Thatcher Britain's first woman prime minister.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/may/4/default.stm
May 2nd 1997: Labour routs Tories in historic election
The Labour Party wins the general election by a landslide, leaving the Conservative Party in tatters after 18 years in power.
The PM is reportedly prepared to include UKIP's leader in one of three debates that could take place before the General Election."
http://news.sky.com/story/1254663/david-cameron-ready-for-farage-tv-debate
Farage would probably be delighted (not sure I see the rationale for Green inclusion, but there we are). Clegg's the one likeliest to kick up a fuss.
If you want to persuade voters, why is addressing them in their native tongue a problem? Some might call it politeness, and initiative......
http://trialbyjeory.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/placing-interpreters-in-polling-stations-is-dysfunctional-and-divisive-says-minister-brandon-lewis/
All that politician-talk about immigrants having to speak English was horseshit.
The cost of a season ticket was about £3,500.
That's a huge chunk of someone's disposable income.
Perhaps the answer is just to make season tickets (on the assumption that they are mainly used to get to work and back - can't think of other examples) tax deductible?
I did read the UKIP leaflet this week though. Apparently they're claiming EU membership costs Britain £165 billion a year, which would have eliminated the budget deficit without the need for any cuts (Though they're not giving a source for this spectacular claim) which is clearly bollocks, for if it were true Cameron and Osborne would have had an in/out referendum on it 4 years ago.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/430571/REVEALED-How-Britain-is-170bn-worse-off-in-European-Union
http://shukip.netnamenow.com/upload-articles/costoftheEU_2013.pdf
And G'day to you cobber,
I love WA - have you shaken hands with the Doctor?
I would not say blase about UKIP but some of what it says does chime with what may voters for other parties feel, even though UKIP may not get their vote in 2015, but it appears they may lend it for the EUROs.
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/referendum/9136-former-ni-first-minister-attacks-bbc-over-indy-ni-peace-threat-claims
Though I see the BBC hasn't seemingly modified its original piece, judging from the date stamp.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-27258388
While on the subject of corrections, I should also retract my moan the other day about the media being wholly Unionist: the Sunday Herald has declared in favour of independence today.
The other night after this thing broke I posted that the thing that looked most likely to swing the decision to charge Adams will not come from those now dead but instead come from the words of the living. This still looks true. The cops are genuinely looking to charge. If they do, Gerry's own bull talk over the years will actually cost him.
Having said that, it is no surprise to anyone to know the the cops are very very worried themselves, not so much of the fallout of a charge but that they are triple locked with what they have in the books to charge.
Time is running out and even the lads down at Sinn Fein towers were not sure as of last night what way it was going to go. Whilst Marty McGuinness was out making clear threats the response overall has been one of wait and see.
Clarity on release or charge by lunchtime.
http://ampp3d.mirror.co.uk/2014/01/17/29-brilliant-things-we-learnt-about-ukip-supporters-by-reading-surveys/
http://www.ukipmeps.org/uploads/file/Cost_of_the_EU_25_5_11.pdf
This put the overall net cost to the UK at 77bn a year for 2010.
I am not saying I agree with this - just pointing out how they come to their figures.
Apparently the £165 billion is a 2013 updating of this same document.
http://www.junepress.com/book.asp?BID=880
The problem isn't rail fares.
As an example. Say I live in St Neots. This return journey to Kings Cross, off-peak, is £16. Peak, £38.
A 12-month standard season ticket is £5,872.00. That's a large amount. But say you use the ticket for 240 days, and it comes down to £24.46 per day, or £12.23 per single journey. This includes peak travel. So immediately by getting a season ticket, you are £13 per day better off than when getting daily returns. Each single journey takes between 40 and 55 minutes.
So let's compare this to a car journey. St Neots to Kings Cross is 58 miles, and takes 1hr 25 mins for a single journey. That's 116 miles of travel for the return journey, and according to the AA calculator would cost £46 to drive. Not including parking at the London end (although you might need to park at St Neots).
So the season ticket is nearly half the price of driving, and about twice as quick. That's quite competitive in my book. (prays that I've done the calculations correctly ...)
You only get off if you fess up. Gerry wasn't involved in anything.
While I personally think leaving the EU would not be detrimental to our economy and we might even see a small boost I highly doubt it would equate to around 10% of GDP.
amol rajan@amolrajan·1 min
So far, this is a rather good #Miliband performance on #Marr.
Interpreters at polling stations and translations of electoral literature point to the fact that we've allowed a very poor quality of immigrant to the come to the UK. If we'd had a points system in the first place - requiring a high standard of English - then we wouldn't be in this situation.
How do we address the situation as it is? I wouldn't have interpreters. Or any translation of any state-produced document. Get rid of it. Save money. And more importantly send a message that if you come to the UK then, at minimum, you have to learn the language. Those who don't understand can use Google translate or make an effort to befriend someone who speaks English. After a while this group will get smaller and disappear.
But you are missing the point. andy's PA couldn't afford to live in London. And was paying something like 18% of her take home pay in getting to work.
That's an issue for the country.
The joke is the Tories are just as bad as Labour as saying the EU is a positive good to this end, never mentioning a problem with integration, and then directly acknowledge it in their political strategy.
It's absurd that the Conservative party is trying to get candidates to represent Britain in the European parliament off the back of votes of non-English speaking foreigners. If people don't have passports here, and haven't gone through the necessary processes to join the British nation they shouldn't be allowed to vote to represent Britain.
amol rajan@amolrajan·2 mins
Miliband told senior Labour comrades to keep schtum about Pfizer deal so he could bang on about it on #marr so this better be good.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·2 mins
Miliband announces Labour would bring in new public interest test for foreign takeovers and says he is writing to Cameron today. #Marr
If people want to argue against the document then they need to point out where the figures are wrong.
I do believe that some of the assumptions made are open to debate but again it is up to supporters of EU membership to make their case. If not then this analysis seems to me to be supportable.
They are however, more likely to believe in the devil:
Con: -30
Lab: -27
LibD: -37
UKIP: -4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/3s35pyaa5c/YG-Archive-131125-Prospects.pdf
I thought Labour had signed up to the government's spending total in that year?
Chris Mason@ChrisMasonBBC·2 mins
Miliband claims on #marrshow that there's a "divide in British politics -- defenders of broken markets&there is Labour..with a bold agenda."
"also, you'd think someone like Dan Hannan would be bringing this up regularly in his blog"
He doesn't mention the other studies often, why would he particularly latch onto this one? My impression is that democratic accountability of government is what that motivates Mr Hannan.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100170980/what-a-cost-benefit-analysis-of-eu-membership-might-reveal/
One interesting point raised by Prof Congdon in his speech at the recent UKIP Conference, was the absence of any government funded cost/benefit analysis of EU membership, which does seem odd.
http://youtu.be/Cuv5OlPTtk4
http://www.judiciary.gov.uk/Resources/JCO/Documents/Judgments/sentencing-remarks-hhj-leonard-r-v-clifford.pdf
I also note this one:
"Of people who cycle, Ukip supporters are least likely to run red lights themselves
Only 2% confess to doing this – 14% of Lib Dems did, 20% of Tories did, and 26% of Labour party supporters said they had."
I return to a more law abiding world would be a welcome one.
"Perhaps the answer is just to make season tickets (on the assumption that they are mainly used to get to work and back - can't think of other examples) tax deductible?"
Would yo not then have to make to the cost of travelling to one's normal place of work tax deductible for everyone? That would cost so much that taxes elsewhere would have to be raised to fill the hole and/or additional cuts to departmental spending found. Furthermore, would it not require the whole country to be put onto self-assessment and think of the ramifications of that.
An alternative idea would be to go back to having "workman's ordinary" fares where tickets used before a certain time in the morning were much cheaper - the reverse of today's practice. in fact. That would help with the costs of working people but fares for pleasure travellers would have to rise significantly and would probably mean even more trains (and buses) running nearly empty during the day. Probably the economics of the thing won't work and the operators would need greater subsidies from the taxpayer.
Or of course, companies could just pay more or otherwise provide assistance. When I worked in town my employer paid for my season ticket (and covered the additional income tax demand that resulted). Other businesses I know provided interest free loans to cover the purchase of an annual season ticket,though these days I imagine HMRC would have something to say about that.
I was surprised that in his sentencing remarks he mentioned another case that was outside UK jusisdiction and which had not been studied in the court but which he seemed to be using as part of his decision on punishment. Is this allowed?
"So what happens when Scotland votes yes? Cameron's quit, the Queen is furious, the Shetlands have taken all the oil - and the Scottish economy is tanking: A brilliant 'imagining' of life after the Union"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2619458/So-happens-Scotland-votes-yes-Camerons-quit-Queen-furious-Shetlands-taken-oil-Scottish-economy-tanking-A-brilliant-imagining-life-Union.html#ixzz30jf54yWH
would it fly to point out how much the railways cost, the "true" cost of train travel and then to point out the susbsidy?
I mean we need to stop short of a marginal private cost vs marginal social cost page of equations but the critical question is to what degree the taxpayer should subsidise train passengers and what social benefits are generated.
Or will it just be tribal politics in the end?
Net seen a bike run a red light in past month:
Con: +8
Lab: +4
LibD: +5
UKIP: +23
No wonder they are more likely to believe in the devil!
Interesting to hear Farage try a little distancing between himself and Mrs T. Clearly, he understands that unbridled adoration of the Lady is going to put off the working class Labour-inclined voters UKIP says it is now targeting. Ed clearly understands that too. For Labour it is clearly the way to attack.
The potential solutions:
1) Make housing costs in London (indeed all cities) cheaper.
2) Pay her more.
3) Artificially depress rail ticket prices even more, at cost to the general taxpayer.
What you are calling for is rail ticket prices to be subsidised even more by the taxpayer, just so companies can keep down wages. That's fair enough, but at least be honest about it.
(As an aside, I fail to see how Miliband's latest wheeze will depress ticket prices in the medium or long term)
We should adopt the system they have in Norway where before you are granted permanent residency in the country you have to take 600 hours of compulsory Norwegian language lessons - including 50 hours on Norwegian culture and society.
http://www.as.kommune.no/in-english.166219.no.html
http://www.ethnicity.ac.uk/census/CoDE-Employment-Census-Briefing.pdf
The vast bulk are not working and are not looking to. And even many of those working will be doing so in their own community, in local shops and service companies etc, where they will talk to people in the language they prefer. I've certainly lived in parts of London where shop owners would speak to members of their own ethnic group at length in another language, and only mention a few words to the English people coming in.
But, that aside, the fact they are getting new immigrants at a faster rate than the existing ones can learn English is PRECISELY THE PROBLEM. At what point does it stop? At what point do we say, hang on, we're losing a sense of social solidarity and increasing alienation because an ever increasing share struggle to communicate in English? When will the Tories, let alone the left wing parties, recognise this? And when they do, when will they take action to actually stop mass immigration? Because none of them are doing what is needed right now.
"He wants ‘daily physical activity’ with ‘an ambition to get half the population physically active by 2025.’
The document adds: ‘We are currently looking at the best definition of physically active for this purpose’.
His get fit plan includes a lottery fund to ‘finance the construction of skateboard parks, BMX tracks, netball and basketball courts. All school pupils will be taught to swim and ride a bike safely.’ Labour will aim to ensure all children do a minimum of two hours of PE a week." Where that will be done is not explained.
He will "introduce a tougher plan for the protection of playing fields" - so will he buy back those that Labour sold off for development and initiate a wholesale demolition program?
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2619655/Labours-nanny-state-plan-drinkers-smokers-unhealthy-eaters-sparks-revolt-party-Red-Ed-says-FORCE-fit.html#ixzz30jhVOrVF
Lord Steel, the former Liberal leader, said he confronted Cyril Smith over allegations that he spanked and touched teenagers and was 'surprised' when he admitted they were true"
An article in Private Eye in 1979 alleged that Smith, who was secretary of the Cambridge House boys hostel, put teenagers across his knee, pulled down their trousers and spanked them as a “punishment” in the 1960s.
Lord Steel said: “I asked Cyril Smith about it. I was half expecting him to say it was all wrong, and I would have been urging him to sue to save his reputation. To my surprise he said the report was correct.
“He had some kind of supervisory role, I don’t know what it was, in these institutions in Rochdale which he reckoned entitled him to be involved in corporal punishment.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10796546/Cyril-Smith-admitted-spanking-and-touching-boys-but-I-let-him-stay-says-Lord-Steel.html
And then there's ALEC on an umbilical chord to the Koch Bros..
http://insideclimatenews.org/content/koch-brothers-alec-expand-fight-clean-energy-users
It's clearly desirable for immigrants to learn a local language and have a go at mingling. But Britain is possibly the very worst-placed country in the world to be self-righteous about it.
Just for anecdotal amusement: there's a voter in Broxtowe who believes that it should be ILLEGAL to speak a foreign language in Britain, even for tourists.
My mother has lived in this country for 30 years and has never voted on the principal its not her country. Bizarre that EU and Commonwealth are allowed the vote. Of course if the Conservatives were sensible tightening the franchise and voting procedures would be more of a priority. As for immigration, current trends will ensure they will share the same fate as the California Republican party, or the Republican Party in general when Texas goes majority Hispanic. Elysium.