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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This morning’s YouGov should ease some of the Tory jitters
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This morning’s YouGov should ease some of the Tory jitters
The changes in today’s YouGov are all within the margin of error – even so they will be enough to relieve some of the pressure on the blue team.
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Perhaps this too
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/09/labour-election-victory-2015-distant-prospect
"In an article for Progress, the New Labour pressure group, the YouGov president, Peter Kellner, describes the polling as "profoundly troubling" for Labour, saying that despite the unpopularity of the government, Labour has uncomfortably small leads and has been unable to generate wide public enthusiasm."
It seems that 2015 has 2 main outcomes
- A Tory or current coalition govt continues in some form
OR
- Ed Milliband is Prime Minister
Both are impossible, but one must happen.
You are Nick Clegg. The most unpopular of the party leaders. What do you do?
Does the article say what the other parts are?
If its Cameron's fault - why have waiting times in Scotland trebled?
The number of patients left "languishing" in hospital A&E units has more than trebled in some parts of Scotland, according to Labour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22472386
It is rather simplistic to blame the increase in waiting times in A and E departments on a reorganisation that came into effect a month ago.
For example: One reason that it is very hard to recruit doctors to A and E departments, so they are understaffed or run by expensive locums, is the disastrous reorganisation of medical training that took place under Patrica Hewitt. When this combined with the near similtaneous ban on visas for Doctors from India the writing was on the wall.
There are many other factors some new and some going back decades. Remember that a dysfunctional A and E dept featured heavily in the investigation of Labours Stafford scandal.
Very droll. Is that a Daily Mash satire or what?
It certainy can't be f***ing real or Cammie just made John Major look like a political colossus in dealing with tory splits and Cammie is going to be a complete laughing stock.
You are already shifting ground to cuts in council services. Is Labour planning to reverse these? If so how is this funded?
"They are: “Rising numbers of patients presenting to emergency departments. Reasons for this include particular pressures due to inadequate social care beds, a frail elderly population with multiple co-morbidities and challenges with out of hours services.
Why have Scottish A&E wait times trebled? Health is devolved - so nowt to do with Cameron.
I'd like to point out that the average of the three elections last night - where Ukip was standing - was a hefty 26.34%. One win and two seconds, a sign of UKIP's progress is the keeping up of momentum.
First practice is in just over an hour and 20 minutes. Whilst I won't be able to watch all of it I do hope to catch a bit.
In a way, the SNP has become a victim of its own success in that the unlikely majority achieved in 2011 made a vote, for which they are not quite ready for, inevitable. As Scotland careers towards its most important date in 300 years, there is a feeling that the Yes campaign has failed to do its homework."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-snp-may-be-victims-of-own-success-1-2925541
They do make a nice comparison to a generation ago:
Industial production (2009 = 100)
March 1988 98.6
March 2013 98.5
Not much change there but here's something which has changed:
Retail sales (2009 = 100)
March 1988 56.5
March 2013 103.0
So how have we managed to fund that rise in consumption ?
Government debt
March 1988 £167.4bn (and falling)
March 2013 £1,185.8bn (and rising)
So over a trillion quid more on the state debt and add on another trillion quid more in houshold debt.
And the Cameron fan club think a bit of growth will sort out our problems.
no, this is a dailymash satire
thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/labourers-descend-on-manchester-2012100143016
If this is real Cammie just took John Major's underpants of power and put them on his head. But lest you think Cammie is a panicking idiot utterly clueless about how to tackle tory splits If all that doesn't stop the tories banging on about Europe, then what will?
*tears of laughter etc.*
I understand why politicians don't do this. Any slight divergence in language could be considered splitting from the party line (even if this isn't the case, the media seem more interested in splits and manufacturing them than anything else). In addition, the public pay very little attention. Getting a line and then hammering it home at every opportunity is one way to make it sink in (tractor stats from Brown worked, to an extent).
But that does mean we end up with a very narrow sort of political 'debate', which is a shame.
@pollytoynbee: RT @commentisfree: Labour must stand firm: no to a referendum on Europe | Polly Toynbee http://gu.com/p/3fm4x/tf (@pollytoynbee)
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4921619/MP-sued-by-watchdog-for-54000-home-profit.htmi
Edit. Sorry the link doesn't seem to work. It's the Sun's story about Stuart Jackson trying to make some dosh out of his second home.
"Here's the dangerous paradox: if Labour bends under pressure and agrees to a 2017 in/out referendum, Britain will leave the EU. After losing an election, the Tories under a Europhobe leader will fight for "out" with all the might of their stampeding press: a mid-term Labour government advocating "in" would be at its weakest. The irony is that if Cameron won the next election, he might be strong enough to pull off a "yes" vote. That's why, for the sake of the country as well as for its own reputation, Labour sticks to its "no referendum" policy. Ed Miliband does not want to be the prime minister to take Britain out of Europe into the wilderness."
Her advice for Ed is to say "If you want an EU referendum - vote Tory"
Not sure I see Ed running with that one....
I love the way our prosecco socialist diva from Tuscany wants to deny democratic choice to the plebs
Lansleys reorganisation does put both community services and commissioning of hospital services together in the CCGs and did move public health to county hall. Yet it seems to need repeal? Makes no sense at all.
I am oft to hear Burnham speak (amongst many others) at the national commissioning meeting in London in June. It will be interesting to hear if his ideas are less vacuous by then. As a former Health Minister he should not be so clueless, though the evidence of Stafford points in the other direction.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4921619/MP-sued-by-watchdog-for-54000-home-profit.html
Jackson must believe he has fairly good grounds against IPSA. Perhaps he does, perhaps he's just an ass trying to tough it out. We don't know, and the court case should show.
Remember, IPSA doesn't exactly have a good track record. A mistake might have been made, or it might have been a case of when valuations were made.
Poor old Polly. As clueless about what Cammie's Cast Iron pledge actually involves as the inept PBtory spinners.
Cammie has only pledged an IN/OUT referendum after renegotiation on a treaty that just isn't going to happen. It's as conditional a cast iron pledge as Lisbon was. Cammie made it crystal clear that an IN/OUT referendum without renegotiation and a new deal was a "false choice".
That's why he's lining up the absurd referendum on a referendum or "mandate referendum" as the fall back for when he has to bottle his pledge. He would say in 2017 that no treaty means no renegotiations and no "false choice" of IN/OUT if he won. To keep his backbenchers onside he then says he needs the mandate referendum to send a message to Europe. That way gullible tory Eurosceptics still get a referendum on the EU even if it is meaningless.
For those who appear to have missed the obvious (as usual) the dawning realisation that they've been taken for chumps by Cammie yet again is why the tory party is currently reliving the Jonh Major years of unity over Europe. The irony is of course that Kipper voters will never believe Cammie anyway and are voting on more than just Europe.
The latest YouGov shows that no one should get carried away with daily movements (although record peaks and troughs are of passing interest). It's the trend that matters and overall comparison to other surveys.
This tells us that Labour's lead is smaller than it was last year, that Ukip have added support in the last few weeks and that both Tory and Labour shares are down because of this. Oh, and the Lib Dems are screwed.
Mick
do you think there should be an IN/OUT referendum on Europe?
He couldn't even get Labour MPs and Party members to vote for him.
Kinnock with hair.
I have an actual referendum to fight thanks. It is of more consequence than tory splits.
Tory splits are neither new or very surprising given their obvious panic over the kippers.
Cammie can string along gullible Eurosceptic MPs with yet more empty posturing because he knows they just don't have the balls to remove him. It still won't stop them banging on about it though.
Are leaders' nicknames proportional to how much they get under the skin of their opponents? So far today we have...
Wee Eck
Little Ed, drag on the ticket or rED
Call me Dave, Cammie, the Fop, Cameron@EtonOldBoys
and
Nick Clegg.
Last nights informative locals article contained this about the effects of last weeks local elections.
" the Liberal Democrats see thirty three years of local election advances wiped out (14% national projected vote share, only 1% higher than their tally in 1980)"
It helps explain why Clegg suddenly decided to get uppity over childcare reforms because his base cannot have failed to notice that the spin about last weeks locals from Clegg (about how he was "back in the saddle") was somewhat at variance with the reality.
Cameron therefore gets to reassure his backbenchers that he is with them, but it's just because he is in Coalition that they can't have what they want. Thus if they want a referendum they need to redouble their efforts to win a Tory majority.
I actually prefer having these disagreements out in the open, and tested with votes in Parliament, rather than hidden behind party discipline.
Or indeed all the the other polling that contradicts it.
*chuckles*
Do you know what SLAB and Lamont's position on Trident is?
When you find out ask yourself why that is?
@SamCoatesTimes: Co-op bank in trouble - Moody's downgrades heavily, suggests it might need taxpayer support. Its troubles stem from Britannia takeover
It seems from radio interviews, that one of the problems mentioned by the MPs was the cost of getting the transport infrastructure to the site.
I'd be interested to know if they factored in the £16 billion we are spending on Crossrail, part of whose aim is to improve transport to Heathrow. No-one blinks an eye at that.
We can do an island airport. It solves many problems, and we have the technology and know-how. British firms largely built Hong Kong International Airport, and the new London Gateway port, just a short distance from several of the proposed island site, is reclaiming a vast area from the estuary.
http://www.londongateway.com/
A third or even fourth runway at Heathrow have their own problems, and will be massively costly as well. Whichever approach we take, we are talking of many, many billions.
Even yesterday's YouGov of 17 was only just (0.07%) outside an MOE central position of 12 - everything else is still within MOE - though the trends you have noted do appear to be entrenching. Where we are a month from now - who knows? Let alone a year - or at the GE, in two.
It's a strange viewpoint for the SNP to take.
;-)
"It was he who manoeuvred young Nick Clegg into the safe seat of Sheffield Hallam and, as returning officer in 2007, determined that a batch of late postal votes, that would have handed the leadership to his rival Chris Huhne, were not accepted."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/lord-rennard-a-prominent-and-powerful-rasputin-figure-who-ruled-the-lib-dem-machine-8508671.html
Cleary they were rivals. Equally clearly Huhne was the author of his own spectacular downfall.
That doesn't stop Huhne being right about Clegg however. The lib dems are in deep, deep trouble. Clegg having a nice ministerial car hardly abdicates him from the responsibilty for it.
'While a majority approves Trident’s replacement, 48 percent of respondents said they are in principle opposed to the U.K. having nuclear weapons, with 37 percent in support.'
Scottish Tories, converting eggs into hypothetical chickens since time immemorial.
How long before Salmond is laying into the UK government for depriving Scotland of its birthright by not bringing Trident on stream faster?
If we get a fourth runway and sixth terminal at Heathrow, how long before that too is full? 15 years? 20 years? We'll just be having the same arguments continually for the next hundred years.
A Thames airport may not happen. But it should.
And which impartial organisation responded to the poll? Actually the SNP go one better. On what basis do the SNP claim there is no support for nuclear weapons in Scotland? We voted for it. The people must want it.
The SNP, making it up as they go along...
http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/
(you may need to let the picture scroll round to it).
You're one of the first people to say we need more housing in London. The closure of Heathrow would create a huge area where we could meet the capital's housing needs.
Unlucky
It's the two Eds who want to increase growth by borrowing more. They're the guy you should be gunning for.
An EU split triumph of John Major like proportions.
"As I never tire of pointing out, it is always worth looking twice at any survey that seems to show that the public support the agenda of whoever commissioned it. Perhaps not at all surprisingly, a recent poll about nuclear weapons conducted in Scotland for CND is a case in point......
As we know from their attempt to rig the referendum question, the SNP has form on this sort of thing. Trying to show that people think what you want them to think is not the same thing as trying to find out what they really do think. I am more interested in the latter – so last week I asked what people in Scotland really do think about Trident. Here is what I found."
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/05/from-lordashcroft-embargoed-until-friday-10th-may.html
The SNP, making it up as they go along...
The SNP's tragedy is in believing that it alone represents the essense of Scotland while in truth it merely represents a shower of third-rate politicians , chancers and malcontents.
AFAIK, there was a clear agreement: you could continue to receive mortgage interest payments for a transitional period and in return you agreed to give up a percentage of the increase in the value of the property for that period.
Stuart Jackson is (a) disagreeing with the valuation of the property in 2010 [baseline] and 2012 [end of transitional period] and (b) complaining that he is having to pay more in the cap gains share that he received in interest contributions.
(b) is tough luck: you made an investment, it didn't work out. (a) I can see why there might be a dispute, but why couldn't it have been resolved? Seems very odd it needs to go to law.
I suspect that Mr. Jackson is a greedy little sod trying to rip off the public
This basis?
'While a majority approves Trident’s replacement, 48 percent of respondents said they are in principle opposed to the U.K. having nuclear weapons, with 37 percent in support.'
I know in Torynincompoopworld 37% represents an overwhelming (and unattainable) electoral mandate, but 48% trumps it.
It's a completely absurd system. They should start again and design something sensible.
Perhaps they should call in some of their debts ??
If one of your objectives is to reduce noise pollution it is on the "right side" ~ 70% of approaches into Heathrow are westerly - over the city of London. Moving the airport to East of London would have these approaches over the sea.
I wonder how Hague feels about Portillo and chums coming out for OUT. Bit of sympathy perhaps?
Currently, to get to Heathrow from the west (e.g. Bath) by rail, you need to go into the centre of London, and then come out west again, either using the uber-expensive Heathrow express or the slow and languorous tube.
This will improve when the uber-expensive Crossrail is built, but not much.
Heathrow Express takes 21 minutes from Paddington to LHR, at vast expense. You should be able to get from the centre of London to a new Boris island in not much more than that.
ThEUniondivvie doesn't like UKIP because he doesn't like the UK and independence , he prefers the EU and dependency on the whims of the Germans. Just like the founders of the SNP. Plus ça change plus c'est la même chose .
I say let IDS devise some form of universal benefit system for MPs and put them on the same hugely complex IT system being proposed for that. That'll teach them.
They don't actually have any MPs. Even Galloway managed to turn a protest vote into that.
Did you see the Yougov polling on Wednesday night? Amusingly on the Scottish cross breaks UKIP got 0%, so it appears I am at one with my country in my opinion of UKIP.
http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/home/2013/05/revealed-2525-council-staff-earning-100000.html
Can't see Labour getting that sort of overdraft from another bank at the same terms - looks like the Union subs will be going up comrades - happy days.
It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in Donside.