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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This morning’s YouGov should ease some of the Tory jitters

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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Hello,

    Today is Friday. As a good Catholic I will be consuming some fish later; Battered Haddock* to be precise.

    And in other news:

    Fluctuations occur within an "opinion" poll sample. Here is the weather....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u0xSoyNvOA

    * This sea-food was not PIE-ed by 'Arriet 'ArdBint. All taste has been - hopefully - preserved....
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    The Tory UKIP problem neatly outlined

    Nick Faith crunches the numbers to explore the UKIP effect in marginal seats

    Nick Faith is Director of Communications at Policy Exchange.

    Ukip: More than a marginal problem for the Tories


    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thinktankcentral/2013/05/from-nickfaith82-.html

    The conclusion, that Cameron should become a competent leader is correct,but unlikely.

    Intersting data. Worth a thread possibly.
    With UKIP having captured 25% of 2010 Conservatives, worrying about how 2010 LD voters split seems a bit odd.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    lol - ticket drag rEd

    http://www.party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/

    "This morning, the Co-operative Party gathered alongside City journalists, residents of Tower Hamlets and representatives of the financial mutual sector to hear Ed Miliband give a speech at the London HQ of the Co-operative Bank. His speech, broadcast live, set out his vision of real change for Britain’s banks."

    One nation one bank one downgrade to junk... ?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,100
    tim said:

    philiph said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates.

    Boris Island is on the wrong side of London, full stop.

    In a country the size of a postage stamp, there is no wrong side of anywhere. Just some infrastructure to build.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9384060/Air-traffic-chiefs-fear-over-Boris-Island.html
    ISTR there are also problems with a third and fourth runway at Heathrow, as well; particularly with Southend and London City. Airspace is by its nature limited.

    These problems can be sorted out; closure of Southend and downgrading of Heathrow would be a good start.

    Schiphol might be more of a problem.

    Compare to the current problems at Heathrow, and the brain-dead idea that a third runway is in any way a long-term solution.

    (As an aside, we were at Legoland on Sunday; it closed an hour later due to being busy. We were still there as it was starting to get dark beyond eight, and the lights of the planes descending down to Heathrow was quite magnificent. Can't be very nice for those living underneath, though).
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    It shouldn't be bailed out if needed. It's not a 'too big to fail' bank....
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,998
    I struggle to see how the departure of Abu Qatada can be considered a blow to the government.

    Nice to see that the National Institute estimates growth for the quarter to April at 0.8%. And revisions to the data on Construction Output could now wipe out any decline in overall output for Q1 2012.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,309


    It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in Donside.

    Are they definitely putting up a candidate? Not much to lose if they do I suppose, except their deposit of course.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    It'll be interesting to see how UKIP do in Donside.

    Are they definitely putting up a candidate? Not much to lose if they do I suppose, except their deposit of course.
    That's what the papers say.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/ukip-ready-to-field-by-election-candidate.21032655
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The full speech still on the Labour party website..

    http://www.labour.org.uk/rebuilding-britain-real-change-for-britains-banks,2012-07-09

    "Ed Miliband MP, Leader of the Labour Party, said:

    It is a pleasure to be here at the Co-op.

    You have always understood that ethics of responsibility, co-operation and stewardship must be at the heart of what you do."
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TGOHF said:

    The full speech still on the Labour party website..

    http://www.labour.org.uk/rebuilding-britain-real-change-for-britains-banks,2012-07-09

    "Ed Miliband MP, Leader of the Labour Party, said:

    It is a pleasure to be here at the Co-op.

    You have always understood that ethics of responsibility, co-operation and stewardship must be at the heart of what you do."

    Has the " Son of Brown " inherited the family curse ?

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,309
    Ta, missed that.

    I'm sure PB will welcome an unintended consequence of this by-election.

    'The expectation at Holyrood is that list MSP Mark McDonald will resign his North East seat to fight the constituency.That would trigger the promotion of fellow list candidate Christian Allard, making him the first Frenchman to become a Member of the Scottish Parliament. Mr Allard, who is from Dijon, settled in Scotland 20 years ago and built a seafood exporting business.'

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    With UKIP having captured 25% of 2010 Conservatives, worrying about how 2010 LD voters split seems a bit odd.

    Not when you look at all the core marginal target seats it isn't.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How does rEd square "the ethics of responsibility" with letting a political party run up a huge overdraft and then pay the bank to use it's premises - then watch it turn to junk ?

    Anyone want this mob running the country again ?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    With UKIP having captured 25% of 2010 Conservatives, worrying about how 2010 LD voters split seems a bit odd.

    Not when you look at all the core marginal target seats it isn't.
    Eastleigh was a Con/LD marginal, the Conservatives came third in the by-election.

    The 2010 data is just out of date.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2013
    @Plato

    It will be interesting to see if the EU continue to push for the sale of the LloydsTSB branches that the Co-Op Bank turned down. Not sure who would want to buy them anyway as quite a few customers have moved away from those branches as they did not want to come under the Co-Op Bank.

    @JosiasJessop

    Coming from SW, Wales or NW to Heathrow: train to Reading, there get the express coach from Reading Station to Heathrow - all in one ticket. Have used it many times and saves entering London.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    @TGOHF

    So much for Ed's banking reforms as his flagship junk Co-Op sinks.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    Back from DC....

    Good to see that Sven. Would you like to stop projecting your DaneGeld when it comes to Europe...?

    My friend (and work-colleague) was - as part of RM45-Commando (Whiskey) - dutied to protecting those who created the Euro. I can tell you, from pubs to train-stations (just for Dr Prasannan) that there is no wish to support the Euro-Zone in The Netherlands.

    England is becoming the exemplar. Which probably shows your disconnect and incomprehension of the normal European worker. How are your luxuary flats; and who is paying for them...?

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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    tim said:

    @Socrates.

    Boris Island is on the wrong side of London, full stop.

    What? Just like Schipol...?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOWA-L3JZO4
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    @TGOHF

    One nation one bank one downgrade.

    ROFLMAO.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Co-op looks like a Lloyds HBOS story in microcosm. Many of the problem loans stem from its takeover of the Britannia Building Society in 2009.

    Was the then labour government at all involved in that transaction, I wonder?

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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Eastleigh was a Con/LD marginal, the Conservatives came third in the by-election.

    I'm well aware of that but it hardly the only type of marginal nor is Eastleigh anything other than unique in it's circumstance. Thanks to Huhne.

    The bit you left out is self-evident.

    "There is no one-size-fits-all strategy for dealing with the Ukip problem."

    The main uncertainties are how solid the ukip vote is and how solid the lib dem vote is.
    Current polling notwithstanding it would be a very brave bet that the lib dems will not win any seats while a UKIP seat is far from assured.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Bad news about the co-op bank, but it shows the problems any small 'regional' proper banks might well have in the future...

    If you are going to run a banking system in a capitalist fashion then it follows that you have to allow some banks to fail if they are badly run. In this context occasional failure is a good thing.

    In the short-term you can allow successful banks to gobble up the failing banks, but as we have seen this creates the situation where the remaining banks are too big to fail, and they are bailed out at enormous cost, and hang around as zombie institutions, blocking the path to recovery.

    There are only two ways out of this predicament. Either you do whatever is necessary to ensure that there is a steady supply of new banks to replace failed banks, or you run banking as a state institution. Dithering as we are at present, in the hope that the problem will go away temporarily in time for the next election, is ridiculous.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,100
    Financier said:

    @Plato

    It will be interesting to see if the EU continue to push for the sale of the LloydsTSB branches that the Co-Op Bank turned down. Not sure who would want to buy them anyway as quite a few customers have moved away from those branches as they did not want to come under the Co-Op Bank.

    @JosiasJessop

    Coming from SW, Wales or NW to Heathrow: train to Reading, there get the express coach from Reading Station to Heathrow - all in one ticket. Have used it many times and saves entering London.

    Yep, done that journey myself in the past. Although it involves what has to be the worst mode of public transport ever devised - the long-distance coach. At least if you are over six feet tall...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,151
    TGOHF said:

    lol - ticket drag rEd

    http://www.party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/

    "This morning, the Co-operative Party gathered alongside City journalists, residents of Tower Hamlets and representatives of the financial mutual sector to hear Ed Miliband give a speech at the London HQ of the Co-operative Bank. His speech, broadcast live, set out his vision of real change for Britain’s banks."

    One nation one bank one downgrade to junk... ?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2935222/Labours-mutual-friends.html

    "As the Labour Party's banker, the Co-op Bank finds itself uncomfortably close to the "loans for honours" affair. While Blair was arranging loans from friendly businessmen, the Co-op Bank was extending Labour's overdraft facilities to £11m and lending money secured on the party's empty headquarters in Westminster.

    The Co-op Bank has links, both financial and personal, deep inside the Labour machine, particularly with Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, his former right-hand man, and a slew of influential MPs, Lords, MSPs and members of the Welsh assembly."
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    antifrank said:

    In the interests of balance, does our host also have a Scottish poll to report showing that the independence campaign has closed the gap a little?

    :bites:

    Great-circle or linear method? You should - really - stop do this so obviously....

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Eastleigh was a Con/LD marginal, the Conservatives came third in the by-election.

    I'm well aware of that but it hardly the only type of marginal nor is Eastleigh anything other than unique in it's circumstance. Thanks to Huhne.

    The bit you left out is self-evident.

    "There is no one-size-fits-all strategy for dealing with the Ukip problem."

    The main uncertainties are how solid the ukip vote is and how solid the lib dem vote is.
    Current polling notwithstanding it would be a very brave bet that the lib dems will not win any seats while a UKIP seat is far from assured.
    The original ConHome article looks at marginals, based on the 2010 vote shares. Musing about whether the Conservatives should target the 2010 LD voters, or the 2010 UKIP voters.

    This is denying reality. The 2010 Conservative voter coalition has broken.

    If we look at Corby. Labour increased their vote, perhaps by the addition of 2010 LD voters, but that is not the reason the Conservatives lost. The 2010 Conservative vote had collapsed.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corby_by-election,_2012#Result
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Bad news about the co-op bank, but it shows the problems any small 'regional' proper banks might well have in the future...

    If you are going to run a banking system in a capitalist fashion then it follows that you have to allow some banks to fail if they are badly run. In this context occasional failure is a good thing.

    In the short-term you can allow successful banks to gobble up the failing banks, but as we have seen this creates the situation where the remaining banks are too big to fail, and they are bailed out at enormous cost, and hang around as zombie institutions, blocking the path to recovery.

    There are only two ways out of this predicament. Either you do whatever is necessary to ensure that there is a steady supply of new banks to replace failed banks, or you run banking as a state institution. Dithering as we are at present, in the hope that the problem will go away temporarily in time for the next election, is ridiculous.
    It now looks like the US has a good chance of taking some action on Too Big To Fail. There's a Senate bill that's been put forward that would put a much higher capital requirement for banks above a certain size. This should encourage decentralisation in the industry. It's a great idea and we should do it here.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    TGOHF said:

    lol - ticket drag rEd

    http://www.party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/

    "This morning, the Co-operative Party gathered alongside City journalists, residents of Tower Hamlets and representatives of the financial mutual sector to hear Ed Miliband give a speech at the London HQ of the Co-operative Bank. His speech, broadcast live, set out his vision of real change for Britain’s banks."

    One nation one bank one downgrade to junk... ?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2935222/Labours-mutual-friends.html

    "As the Labour Party's banker, the Co-op Bank finds itself uncomfortably close to the "loans for honours" affair. While Blair was arranging loans from friendly businessmen, the Co-op Bank was extending Labour's overdraft facilities to £11m and lending money secured on the party's empty headquarters in Westminster.

    The Co-op Bank has links, both financial and personal, deep inside the Labour machine, particularly with Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, his former right-hand man, and a slew of influential MPs, Lords, MSPs and members of the Welsh assembly."
    Dodgy bank with dodgy connections....no surprise.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    tim said:

    @Socrates.Boris Island is on the wrong side of London, full stop.

    Depends on what you mean by the "wrong"side.

    If one of your objectives is to reduce noise pollution it is on the "right side" ~ 70% of approaches into Heathrow are westerly - over the city of London. Moving the airport to East of London would have these approaches over the sea.
    I'm not arguing with the desirability of the Thames island - I think it's a good idea, however isn't there also an issue with interfering with the approach path to Schipol?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    antifrank said:

    In the interests of balance, does our host also have a Scottish poll to report showing that the independence campaign has closed the gap a little?

    What poll is that, I know OGH loves doing threads on Scottish Independence.

    Hopefully he can incorporate this story into it as well.

    SNP ministers will be bound by law to cease campaigning for independence 28 days before the referendum but UK ministers can legally promote the Union until the polls close, according to experts.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/legal-experts-snp-bound-by-law-to-stop-independence-campaign-28-days-before-referendum.1368097653
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps a pinch of salt for recent poor construction figures then ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    On topic, analysing the Daily YouGov poll movements is fun.

    I remember the good old days, when we didn't have the daily tracker, and we were forced to analyse sub samples to the nth degree.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    This is denying reality. The 2010 Conservative voter coalition has broken.

    You'll have to remind me of this coalition 'pact' I can't seem to remember any such thing.
    The fact that some tories were upset at the UKIP 3.1% vote in 2010, and even blamed it for Cammie not getting a majority, does miss the point that repositioning usually means swapping one set of voters for another. It's a question of which voters you alienate and which you enthuse by targeting because there is no way to appeal to all of them reliably. A protest vote can harvest some from all but it is by it's nature a more brittle and softer vote come a GE.

    If we look at Corby. Labour increased their vote, perhaps by the addition of 2010 LD voters, but that is not the reason the Conservatives lost. The 2010 Conservative vote had collapsed.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corby_by-election,_2012#Result

    You do realise if you add the UKIP vote to the Con one they still lose?


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    edited May 2013
    I do like this Guardian piece.

    Is Nigel Farage a racist?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/shortcuts/2013/may/10/is-nigel-farage-racist
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,151
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    recent poor construction figures

    The last two and a half years worth years of construction figures, not just "recent"

    Only since the election? Before that Labour somehow managed to engineer a property investment boom that actually resulted in less building than ever.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    recent poor construction figures

    The last two and a half years worth years of construction figures, not just "recent"

    The one's being revised up thus removing the double dip ?

    Yes - those ones.

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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Socrates said:

    Bad news about the co-op bank, but it shows the problems any small 'regional' proper banks might well have in the future...

    If you are going to run a banking system in a capitalist fashion then it follows that you have to allow some banks to fail if they are badly run. In this context occasional failure is a good thing.

    In the short-term you can allow successful banks to gobble up the failing banks, but as we have seen this creates the situation where the remaining banks are too big to fail, and they are bailed out at enormous cost, and hang around as zombie institutions, blocking the path to recovery.

    There are only two ways out of this predicament. Either you do whatever is necessary to ensure that there is a steady supply of new banks to replace failed banks, or you run banking as a state institution. Dithering as we are at present, in the hope that the problem will go away temporarily in time for the next election, is ridiculous.
    It now looks like the US has a good chance of taking some action on Too Big To Fail. There's a Senate bill that's been put forward that would put a much higher capital requirement for banks above a certain size. This should encourage decentralisation in the industry. It's a great idea and we should do it here.
    That sounds interesting. Thanks.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited May 2013
    This is a speech Ed Miliband made on “stewardship” banking last year… at the Co-op.

    This is a speech by George Osborne hailing 2013 as the year we changed British banks, including the planned sale of Lloyds branches to… the Co-op.

    Which deal then collapsed?

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/

    Coalition 1 (Miliband E. og) Labour 0.
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    eckythumpereckythumper Posts: 27
    A nation monument should be erected for SETH PROCTOR the Libdem candidate in two of yesterdays local by elections. In one he polled 3 votes and the other 32 votes.
    What a man
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    In the interests of balance will Cammie chicken out of a debate with Farage?
    Rob Burberry ‏@RobBurberry

    "The prospect of Cameron facing @Nigel_Farage in leaders' debate has made it happening less likely" @jameskirkup writing in @TelePolitics
    At least Cammie still has the loyal support of his former colleagues.
    Act more like Farage and less like a public school toff, Cameron is told by his former Tory council leader

    Keith Mitchell said 'out of touch' PM needed to reconnect with the public
    Claimed Cameron and George Osborne come across as public school toffs

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2321641/Act-like-Farage-like-public-school-toff-Cameron-told-Tory-council-leader.html?ITO=socialnet-twitter-mailonline
    Poor old incompetent fop what a shame.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Stella, Ed, Luciana, Meg, Steven and Mike.

    http://www.party.coop/lists/members-of-parliament/

    Your bank took one hell of a hammering.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited May 2013
    Niche polling from YouGov/Progress

    Which of these statements comes closest to your view...?

    According to the great British public, Labour and Lib Dems are both nice but dim (soft hearted but useless) and the Conservatives are mean and dim (callous but useless).

    What a bunch to pick from!

    Those polled would prefer Labour led by Miliband to Conservatives led by Cameron by 41-40.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5pk92znec2/YG-Progress-results-040313-nasty-or-nice.pdf

    (Edit: From the end of February apparently)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    Millsy said:

    Niche polling from YouGov/Progress

    Which of these statements comes closest to your view...?

    According to the great British public, Labour and Lib Dems are both nice but dim (soft hearted but useless) and the Conservatives are mean and dim (callous but useless).

    What a bunch to pick from!

    Those polled would prefer Labour led by Miliband to Conservatives led by Cameron by 41-40.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5pk92znec2/YG-Progress-results-040313-nasty-or-nice.pdf

    Interesting that fieldwork is nearly 4,000 (larger than normal) but nearly three months old.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Mick_Pork said:

    In the interests of balance will Cammie chicken out a debate with Farage?

    Rob Burberry ‏@RobBurberry

    "The prospect of Cameron facing @Nigel_Farage in leaders' debate has made it happening less likely" @jameskirkup writing in @TelePolitics
    At least Cammie still has the loyal support of his former colleagues.
    Act more like Farage and less like a public school toff, Cameron is told by his former Tory council leader

    Keith Mitchell said 'out of touch' PM needed to reconnect with the public
    Claimed Cameron and George Osborne come across as public school toffs

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2321641/Act-like-Farage-like-public-school-toff-Cameron-told-Tory-council-leader.html?ITO=socialnet-twitter-mailonline
    Poor old incompetent fop what a shame.


    Farage is an unashamed public school boy , Dulwich ; Cameron's problem is that he's embarrassed by his excellent education.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    There have been plenty of rumours about bungled and expensive IT projects at Labour's favourite bank.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak
    Home Sec Theresa May announces creation of independent panel to investigate unsolved murder of private investigator Daniel Morgan in 1987

    About time. Good call from May.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    Blue_rog said:

    tim said:

    @Socrates.Boris Island is on the wrong side of London, full stop.

    Depends on what you mean by the "wrong"side.

    If one of your objectives is to reduce noise pollution it is on the "right side" ~ 70% of approaches into Heathrow are westerly - over the city of London. Moving the airport to East of London would have these approaches over the sea.
    I'm not arguing with the desirability of the Thames island - I think it's a good idea, however isn't there also an issue with interfering with the approach path to Schipol?
    If aircraft are approaching Boris island from the East, it's unlikely they would be approaching Schipol from the west.

    Schipol is nearly 200 miles from "Boris Island."
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,100
    tim said:
    Much more alarming are those of all parties who believe that there should be no age limit, 5%, and those saying 14 or under, 8%.

    However the most interesting result are the 1% of Tories and 1% of Labour voters who think that having sex with someone of the opposite sex should be illegal!

    It shows the limitations of polling.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,998
    So, there it is. Initial estimates were that in Q4 2011, Q1 2012 and Q2 2012, the economy contracted by a sharp 1.4%. Now it's been revised to a contraction of 0.5%, and I think that Q1 2012 will eventually be revised to show growth.

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    samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:
    1% of Labour voters think heterosexual sex should be illegal

    What's weirder?
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    samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    @Josias

    1% of people believe it shouldn't be legal to send people to prison.
    So what should the punishment for sending people to prison be?
    I think we need stiffer deterrents.

    15% of UKIP voters believe sex between people of the same sex should be illegal
    9% Tories
    6% Labour
    3% LD

    Actually that is a surprising stat.

    you would expect a party that is against gay marriage to have supporters that think gay sex should be illegal

    I would have expected the gap between UKIP voters and Labour to me far bigger than 9 per 100
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    samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    SHOCK NEWS

    UKIP voters are more socially conservative than average
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    Since December 2004 and May 2010 the average tenure of a Home Secretary has been 16 months.

    Theresa May 36 months and counting.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    samonipad said:

    tim said:

    @Josias

    1% of people believe it shouldn't be legal to send people to prison.
    So what should the punishment for sending people to prison be?
    I think we need stiffer deterrents.

    15% of UKIP voters believe sex between people of the same sex should be illegal
    9% Tories
    6% Labour
    3% LD

    Actually that is a surprising stat.

    you would expect a party that is against gay marriage to have supporters that think gay sex should be illegal

    I would have expected the gap between UKIP voters and Labour to me far bigger than 9 per 100
    Actually, I think that stats like these are, in common parlance, a load of bollocks.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,100
    tim said:

    @Josias

    1% of people believe it shouldn't be legal to send people to prison.
    So what should the punishment for sending people to prison be?
    I think we need stiffer deterrents.

    15% of UKIP voters believe sex between people of the same sex should be illegal
    9% Tories
    6% Labour
    3% LD

    When you get to a result of 1-2%, with just a few hundred respondents in the category, you are well in the noise floor. Some respondents will have misunderstood the question, whilst others will not be taking it seriously.

    The higher the percentage, the more that effect will be reduced by real responses.

    But prison is outdated. What we need are trebuchets - the harsher the sentence, the greater the fling!

    (Mr Dancer: Enormo-Haddocks have made an appearance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisBryantMP/status/324129424473726976 )
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612
    Shocking news.

    Des Lynam has come out for UKIP.
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    samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    MikeK said:

    samonipad said:

    tim said:

    @Josias

    1% of people believe it shouldn't be legal to send people to prison.
    So what should the punishment for sending people to prison be?
    I think we need stiffer deterrents.

    15% of UKIP voters believe sex between people of the same sex should be illegal
    9% Tories
    6% Labour
    3% LD

    Actually that is a surprising stat.

    you would expect a party that is against gay marriage to have supporters that think gay sex should be illegal

    I would have expected the gap between UKIP voters and Labour to me far bigger than 9 per 100
    Actually, I think that stats like these are, in common parlance, a load of bollocks.

    I would have thought a lot of people take the piss with their answer

    pity the gullible that treat stats from opinion polls as facts
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I thought this was an interesting article in some respects.

    It includes the observation that:
    no opposition party has gone on to win without at some point achieving an opinion poll lead of at least 20%. Labour has not come close to this since 2010.
    The largest opinion poll lead I can find for Labour is 16%, from Angus Reid on 2012-05-31 and TNS BMRB on 2012-09-21

    In the last Parliament, the Conservatives once enjoyed a 28% lead in an Ipsos-MORI poll on 2008-09-14
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Jessop, I remember that from the time :)

    D'you like the banner of House Dancer?

    http://i.imgur.com/h4VxBN9.png
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes
    Celeb endorsement of the day: Des Lynam for UKIP.
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    samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    tim said:

    @jameschappers: Des Lynam has come out for UKIP and, er, written an adaptation of 'Send in the Clowns' to be sung at the party's South East conference

    Is there a rhyme for moustachioed?

    Pistachioed?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,998
    samonipad said:

    tim said:
    1% of Labour voters think heterosexual sex should be illegal

    What's weirder?
    Do they all live in Brighton?

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    In the interests of balance, does our host also have a Scottish poll to report showing that the independence campaign has closed the gap a little?

    What poll is that, I know OGH loves doing threads on Scottish Independence.

    I have no knowledge of such a poll, but it seemed that one would give a nice symmetry to yesterday's threads. And we all love threads on Scottish independence.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    @jameschappers: Des Lynam has come out for UKIP and, er, written an adaptation of 'Send in the Clowns' to be sung at the party's South East conference

    They're already here.

    http://www.maxfarquar.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/David-Cameron-George-Osborne-Send-in-the-clowns.jpg

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Greetings from Boston!

    An interesting stat from last year's presidential election: for the first time ever the percentage turnout among black voters was higher than among white voters.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,612

    Greetings from Boston!

    An interesting stat from last year's presidential election: for the first time ever the percentage turnout among black voters was higher than among white voters.

    I have some good news for you.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/may/09/gareth-bale-tottenham-hotspur
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Since December 2004 and May 2010 the average tenure of a Home Secretary has been 16 months.

    Theresa May 36 months and counting.

    According to wikipedia, Blunkett was the first Home Secretary to try to deport Abu Qatada in 2002. Since then he has seen off, in a manner of speaking, 5 Labour Home Secretaries.

    If May remains Home Secretary until the 2015 general election, she will have been the longest-serving Home Secretary since Butler (January 1957 - July 1962).
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Libdems polling still dire, last weeks local elections saw thirty three years of local election advances wiped out (14% national projected vote share, only 1% higher than their tally in 1980) for the lib dems, Clegg's popularity still two words to raise a smile from most people..

    Clearly time for Dan Hodges to pop up and claim a Clegg and lib dem comeback is imminent.

    Textbook. ;)
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    samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Has anyone seen this? This guy should be running he economy!

    http://youtu.be/pfa3MHLLSWI
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,371
    That's a fun poll. I see that 1% of 2010 LibDems think voting should be illegal. Poor souls, they've never recovered from the trauma.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    samonipad said:

    Has anyone seen this? This guy should be running he economy!

    Not exactly up against stiff competition though is he? Have you seen this?
    Marcus Chown ‏@marcuschown

    When I suggested this baby owl in a knitted hat would do better job with economy than George Osborne, got 2000+ RTs! https://twitter.com/marcuschown/status/315018038745378817/photo/1
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030
    tim said:

    @jameschappers: Des Lynam has come out for UKIP and, er, written an adaptation of 'Send in the Clowns' to be sung at the party's South East conference

    Is there a rhyme for moustachioed?

    Pistachioed? Might fit nicely with everyone thinking we are nuts. :-)
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Ah....

    Des Lynam's parents were Irish immigrant nurses who came to Britain after the war. He was born in the Irish republic..
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "Hayes said the unions are likely to call for a public inquiry into what went wrong at Co-op Bank and may call for clawbacks to any bonuses paid to executives."

    I'm not sure Labour will want that :)
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2013
    That will be fun. Unions running a bank.

    'slow progress on integrating the Britannia building society which it took over three years ago.'

    IT disaster?

    'Hayes said the unions are likely to call for a public inquiry into what went wrong at Co-op Bank'

    It's up to the shareholders to hold the bank and it's directors to account. No need for a publicly funded enquiry.

    Thinking further, that might be the problem. Does the Co Op Bank have shareholders as such, capable of influence over the board and executives?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'm not sure Labour will want that :)

    Just about the last thing labour would want, I'd have thought....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    I'm not sure Labour will want that :)

    Just about the last thing labour would want, I'd have thought....

    How many more rEd speeches would they have to host to build up the capital reserve ?
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    samonipad said:

    tim said:
    1% of Labour voters think heterosexual sex should be illegal

    What's weirder?
    I suspect the 1% didn't know the meaning of heterosexual or got it muddled up with homosexual.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    F1: second practice session starts in 9 minutes. Hopefully it'll be nice and dry.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That YouGov poll on criminal offences is scary. The 38% of members of the public who think that watching porn should be illegal until age 18 must come from the planet that the internet forgot. The average male teenager is just starting to get slightly bored with porn by age 18, having exhausted the potential of midget lego goat porn.

    Kudos to the 1% of voters who think that it should not be legal to stand for Parliament.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Shocking news.

    Des Lynam has come out for UKIP.


    If you'd left off "for UKIP" it could have been a shock ;-)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,415
    Economics is not known as the dismal science for nothing. About a month ago I expressed the view, somewhat tentively at first, that the UK economy had turned the corner. I think the evidence since then has been very supportive of that and many are now forecasting that Q2 will exceed the 0.3 of Q1.

    Later this year we will start to see the benefit of the boost in investment in north sea oil. At the moment the north sea remains a drag on perfromance, as it has been the last few years. As the breaks come off our economy is going to accelerate.

    Which, of course, is where the dismal bit comes in. My guess is that by the end of this year or possibly very early next year base rates will start to increase. This is necessary as the economy returns to something like normal but there are still a lot of businesses and households hanging on as a result of negative real interest rates. As rates increase a lot of home owners, who have got used to very modest mortgages, are going to feel real pain. Is there a danger this will diminish or even eliminate the boost the tories ought to get from the economic upturn?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    That will be fun. Unions running a bank.

    'slow progress on integrating the Britannia building society which it took over three years ago.'

    IT disaster?

    'Hayes said the unions are likely to call for a public inquiry into what went wrong at Co-op Bank'

    It's up to the shareholders to hold the bank and it's directors to account. No need for a publicly funded enquiry.

    Thinking further, that might be the problem. Does the Co Op Bank have shareholders as such, capable of influence over the board and executives?
    Never forget any opportunity for the unions to waste public money..
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    Never forget any opportunity for the unions to waste public money..

    I think this will be the one time rEd doesn't call for a public enquiry.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,151
    MikeK said:

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes
    Celeb endorsement of the day: Des Lynam for UKIP.

    That'll put a stop to the golf club stereotype.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Over half of Scots want to see a Trident replacement and based in Faslane. So give it three months until Salmond's demanding an upgrade of facilities and accusing HMG of weakening Scotland's defences ?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/over-half-of-scots-want-trident-replacement-poll-1-2925653
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Hmm. Vettel's never been on pole in Barcelona... surprising.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,415
    On topic, are we now back to pretending that Labour has a 9% lead again and that the 4% on a poll with in excess of 5m voters on a day when Yougov was saying Labour had a lead of 11 didn't really happen?

    Or are we saying that Labour now probably has a lead of 2%? That at least would be consistent with the forced choice of Ed Miliband and David Cameron.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    antifrank said:

    That YouGov poll on criminal offences is scary. The 38% of members of the public who think that watching porn should be illegal until age 18 must come from the planet that the internet forgot. The average male teenager is just starting to get slightly bored with porn by age 18, having exhausted the potential of midget lego goat porn.

    Kudos to the 1% of voters who think that it should not be legal to stand for Parliament.


    That's actually 50% of people who think porn should be illegal till 18 or above.

    I assume it might be a case of knowing that people are going to break it, but valuing it anyway.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Housing costs: just pay the cost of a reasonable hotel in central London ever night they need to be there.

    If you want to get rid of any MP's with a family thats a very good idea.

    I don't take my family with me when I travel on business.

    I'd be happy to pay the cost of a hotel in their constituency instead.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    (As an aside, we were at Legoland on Sunday; it closed an hour later due to being busy. We were still there as it was starting to get dark beyond eight, and the lights of the planes descending down to Heathrow was quite magnificent. Can't be very nice for those living underneath, though).

    Which is why they were able to buy their properties cheap.

    We looked at one in the area - was at least half what a comparable property would have been away from the Heathrow flight path. Ultimately decided not to go with it, because my wife felt she wouldn't have been able to enjoy the garden
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Apparently sector 3 times in Spain are good pointers for Monaco. The commentators seem to think Mercedes will be good at Monaco (ie in with a chance of winning).
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    samonipad said:

    tim said:
    1% of Labour voters think heterosexual sex should be illegal

    What's weirder?
    I suspect the 1% didn't know the meaning of heterosexual or got it muddled up with homosexual.

    Maybe they're devout Shakers?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Charles said:



    (As an aside, we were at Legoland on Sunday; it closed an hour later due to being busy. We were still there as it was starting to get dark beyond eight, and the lights of the planes descending down to Heathrow was quite magnificent. Can't be very nice for those living underneath, though).

    Which is why they were able to buy their properties cheap.

    We looked at one in the area - was at least half what a comparable property would have been away from the Heathrow flight path. Ultimately decided not to go with it, because my wife felt she wouldn't have been able to enjoy the garden
    Can you imagine if the MPs transport committee had been in charge of the new Hong Kong airport ? It would still be being debated.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Housing costs: just pay the cost of a reasonable hotel in central London ever night they need to be there.

    If you want to get rid of any MP's with a family thats a very good idea.

    Surely an MP's family lives in one place or the other?

    I think there are arguments against the hotel-method, because MPs would likely need a 'home' study in their London living arrangements. The sensible thing is for parliament simply to buy out an entire block of flats that can be used by MPs.
This discussion has been closed.