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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour
We now have a by-election date, June 5th, the declaration by Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, that he won’t be his party’s candidate and the launching of Newark markets by the main political bookmakers.
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It might lead to a fairer and more disciplined electoral market and solve the cost of voting crisis too.
"Given that Labour will probably mount the best ground campaign"
Why? They have very little support outside the town of Newark itself.
Con: 10.803
UKIP: 9,488
Lab: 7,601
LD: 4,543
Green: 1,953
BNP: 1,914
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2004/rp04-050.pdf
I agree wih Mike. When I looked at those Newark prices yesterday, LAB was the stand-out value bet.
Regarding the previous thread (Caol and Mallaig by-election), I was once the SNP candidate in Mallaig, in the dim and distant past. Terrific area that: Morar, Arisaig, Glenfinnan, the Small Isles (Rum, Eigg and Muck). What fun I had canvassing! I must have knocked most doors in the area, although to my shame I never made it to Knoydart.
Caol (a suburb of Fort William) used to be rock-solid Labour back then, so I am amazed that they failed to put up a candidate (not enough local members left?); Mallaig, a fishing port, was good SNP territory. The smaller villages and countryside was the usual Highland mix of Lib Dem, SNP, Ind and Con.
But that was all far too long ago to be relevant now. Things have changed quite radically now. My parents still live nearby and by all accounts it is now pretty much impossible to find anybody who will openly admit to being a Lib Dem. But an awful lot are still intending to vote for Charlie Kennedy
Finally, I note that Mike's withdrawal from the INDYREF market yesterday has had no effect on the prices. Still:
Yes 4/11 (various)
No 9/4 (various)
UK GE watchers may like to note that money has been going on LAB in Dundee East (now 11/4) and on the SNP in Edinburgh North & Leith (now 40/1, which is still outstanding value IMHO).
"Men fear ridicule over ordering wine
British men enjoy drinking wine at home but avoid ordering it in a pub in case their friends make fun of them, a recent survey has claimed."
http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2014/05/men-fear-ridicule-over-ordering-wine/
The LD 2010 split is: Cons: 11; LAB: 31; LD: 33; UKIP: 16; Green: 6
Last four Labour VI: 36,37,37,37 - a new lower trend?
Have fun tonight as Dirty Dicks. I am working :-(
Coalition squabble on knives caught my eye. Looks like one where it's in both parties interests to disagree publically, but adds to perception that Grayling is struggling. His savings don't seem as well thought out as some colleagues (just expect same outputs for less money, or the outcry over parcel restrictions) and he seems particularly weak at working in the constraints of coalition - there must be plenty he can offer e.g. on drugs policy reviews to get things like this through. Might Grayling be looking over his shoulder come the reshuffle?
A lot will depend on whether UKIP do as well as anticipated in the Euros and whether they can find a candidate half as attractive to tory voters as they did in Eastleigh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(1979–present)
Ukip's leader will not stand in byelection but his party is seen as tempting alternative for many in Nottinghamshire market town"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/30/newark-voters-warm-ukip-cold-shoulder-farage
Eastleigh: 1,933 (3.6%)
Newark: 1,954 (3.8%)
"The Conservative homeland security spokesman, Patrick Mercer, today stepped down after saying that being called a "black bastard" was part-and-parcel of life in the armed forces.
The party leader, David Cameron, said the remarks by the MP for Newark and Retford were "totally unacceptable".
Mr Mercer becomes the first frontbench resignation of Mr Cameron's 15-month reign as leader. In an interview with Times Online he said it was "the way it is" a black soldier would be called a "black bastard", and that some "idle and useless" ethnic minority soldiers "used racism as cover for their misdemeanours"."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2007/mar/08/conservatives.military
Scotland would likely hold a lower credit rating than the rest of the UK immediately after independence, according to the ratings agency Moody's.
The agency predicted an independent Scotland would hold an investment-grade A rating - below the UK's current Aa1.
But it said Scotland could achieve a higher credit rating over time.
Independence would be unlikely to affect the credit rating of the remainder of the UK, it said.
The Moody's report said an independent Scotland's credit profile would "almost certainly be consistent with an investment grade rating".
It added: "While there are significant uncertainties associated with Scottish arrangements post-independence, an 'A' rating is perhaps the most likely at the outset, but with risks tilted to the downside.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27247870
The ANTI-CON vote will coalesce behind LAB and the LDs will lose their deposit.
The unfortunate person here is Jenrick, who has gone from the prospect of a nice easy election campaign in a safe seat to a 3-way catfight.
I hope you noticed my comment on the previous thread outlining the Osborne manufacturing recessions.
Although I fear it will bring further accusations about my statistical rigour from Charles I do think it explains why the Field Marshal and myself are less enamored with Osborne than estate agents and retailers of imported tat are.
For what it's worth I suspect a narrow Tory hold. Labour won't come close. The seat is just the sort where Ed Miliband's Labour repels.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/feb/06/gender.politics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2012
Also, Corby is a former steel town full of Scottish immigrants. Newark is a very traditional English market-town.
AveryLP, 25 December. Status - failed.
Stark Dawning, 1 May. Status - failed.
Fitalass, 5 May. Status - pending.
Rod Crosby, 31 May. Status - pending.
10 years since bells on bikes were made compulsory once again, which they were before 1983:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/3667513.stm
Is there a market on 'lost deposits' ?
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/may/01/jeremy-clarkson-begs-forgiveness-n-word-top-gear
But they held on in all the seats (Save 1 independent) in the last set of locals.
As an aside what branch of manufacturing do you work in ?
I knew Fiona Jones pretty well but had no idea about the alcoholism. She was bubbly and courageous to the point of carefree recklessness - I always liked the story of her going to a meeting of farmers demanding more subsidies and saying "If I didn't vote to increase subsidies for single mothers I'm certainly not going to vote to increase subsidies for you'). The story linked below is a bit misleading as Gill Dawn had no chance of winning - it was a two-horse race with me. But FJ became obsessed with what she saw as police victimisation in the disqualification saga (it hinged on whether advance phone canvassing counts as election expenses) and when she lost she struggled to find another job, since as a journalist she was seen as damaged by the endless law case. It was a really sad business.
Scotland’s credit ‘will be on par with Botswana’
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scotland-s-credit-will-be-on-par-with-botswana-1-3396159
Institutional racism in the press?
As an aside, I thought Clarkson owned Top Gear - so I doubt the Beeb will sack him.
Ordinarily I don't respond to newspaper allegations but on this occasion I feel I must make an exception. A couple of years ago I recorded an item for Top Gear in which I quote the rhyme "eeny, meeny, miny, moe". Of course, I was well aware that in the best-known version of this rhyme there is a racist expression that I was extremely keen to avoid. The full rushes show that I did three takes. In two, I mumbled where the offensive word would normally occur and in the third I replaced it altogether with the word teacher. Now when I viewed this footage several weeks later I realised that in one of the mumbled versions if you listen very carefully with the sound turned right up it did appear that I'd actually used the word I was trying to obscure. I was mortified by this, horrified. It is a word I loathe and I did everything in my power to make sure that that version did not appear in the programme that was transmitted.
"I have here the note that was sent at the time to the production office and it says: 'I didn't use the N-word here but I've just listened through my headphones and it sounds like I did. Is there another take that we could use?'
"Please be assured I did everything in my power to not use that word, as I'm sitting here begging your forgiveness for the fact my efforts obviously weren't quite good enough, thank you."
I remember in the 1980s the surprise in a UK business meeting at the offence taken by an American at the "in a wood pile" expression....
Betfair's gone a sort of yellow-orange vomit hue. I dislike it.
Do you prefer the horse's mouth?
An assessment of an independent Scotland on those issuers registered in Scotland covers three broad factors: (1) the impact of redenomination on outstanding debts in a new currency, given Moody's expectation that the UK authorities would likely persist in their refusal to tolerate a currency union with an independent Scotland; (2) the constraints on borrower creditworthiness coming from an independent Scotland's credit profile; and (3) any impact the economic and financial environment in an independent Scotland might have on borrower on creditworthiness.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Scottish-independence-unlikely-to-have-rating-implications-for-UK--PR_298421
Not me = nor me.
Mr. Fett, that reminds me of the Americans kicking up a fuss about some KFC ads. West Indies were playing in Australia, and KFC (I think) ran some ads where an obnoxiously chirpy Aussie got on-side with West Indies fans by sharing his KFC lunch with them.
Apparently there's a negative racial view in America of African-Americans eating KFC chicken (no idea why). So, some over there kicked up a fuss about an advert not shown, so far as I know, on US TV and which didn't involve any Americans. The ads got pulled.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_slurs_by_ethnicity
Re the Scotsman, you'll no doubt remember, now that I remind you, that most of the jobs have already gone [edited] with circulation falls and staff cuts.
All newspapers have been going downhill but the Scotsman has been losing far more than most much of the time when compared with e.g. the Herald or the Graun. One factor must be the extraordinarily unbalanced politics coverage (though photoshopping swastikas onto photo of chaps with saltire flags in the Sunday edition was a low point).
I see you avoid the fact that the Scotsman tries to make it something it is not by trying to be smart and mocking an African country by trying to imply Botswana is a joke.As Charles points out it shows they have no journalists , some ignoramus just thought "let's compare them to Africa " that will make it look bad. This is the reason they are almost readerless and will be gone in the near future, they do not have a clue.
PS, given their output and ownership , I doubt many Scottish people will lose jobs when they fold. They are just an empty shell in Edinburgh nowadays.
The production company ‘Bedder 6’ the makers of ‘Top-Gear’ was set up by Clarkson, in conjunction with TG producer Andy Wilman, Last year however, BBC Worldwide bought out their 50% controlling stake in the company – Clarkson made a reported £8.4m on the deal.
[edit] irrespective of that, Clarkson is going no where.
And not get Italy
UKIP in the Euros,
Labour in the London Region Euros
Conservatives in Newark By-Election.
Surely there has to be some distinction between saying a racist word and intending to be hurtful by way of racism? This kind of thing being front page news is an insult to genuine victims of racial hatred, prejudice and abuse
I don't know whether Clarkson is racist or not, but even if he had said the "N" word whilst saying the rhyme, given the situation it wouldn't have meant he meant any racial offence in my book.
Either way, it was a typically unfunny Top Gear scene
An independence from Europe
BNP
UKIP
Glad ,in a way, to see from the Clarkson debacle that it was not the school but 1970's Britain in general that was very naughty
Con 35
UKIP 29
Labour 23
LD 13
I would guess though that if Mercer was a popular MP with constituents that would work against the Conservatives
Would take UKIP over Labour for 2nd though
Friendly £20 at Evens @MikeSmithson ? You have a £20 note of mine anyway so I have paid on
Anyway, did anyone else use the "my mother and your mother were washing some clothes..." rhyme to pick who was 'it'?
Ed Mili and his flat earthers would do well to read this.
http://news.sky.com/story/1253723/man-charged-over-egg-attack-on-ukips-farage
In any event I regard S&P more highly than Moody's
Con 35
UKIP 31
Labour 28
LD 6
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVN_0qvuhhw